Mateo’s Hoop Diary: A’ja Wilson should have the lead for the MVP crown

Napheesa Collier returned from her seven-game absence (ankle), dicing coverages with jumpers and runners, reminding everyone that she was the MVP front-runner before her injury in the Minnesota Lynx’s win over the visiting Indiana Fever on Sunday. She racked up 32 points on 68.8% shooting, with nine rebounds plus two offerings and sat down as fewer than two minutes remained. 

The Lynx improved to 30-7, six games ahead of the Atlanta Dream, which has the second-best record in the league (24-13). Now with their best player back, the war path resumes for the WNBA championship at full speed.

Yet, A’ja Wilson should be in the lead for the MVP crown. The Aces were in the middle of an abysmal season because the team isn’t as strong as the ones of the past few years. They’ve since gone on a 10-game winning streak, leaping to the third seed of 13 teams. Coach Becky Hammon has sent Jewell Loyd to the bench and put Kiersten Bell in the starting lineup, but the biggest difference is that Wilson elevated her play.

Wilson is averaging 27 points on 50.3% shooting, with 12.8 rebounds and 2.5 dimes over the 10 straight wins. She’s playing at last year’s record-setting level and if she keeps up her scoring, is going to come close to another 1,000-point season. On top of that, she’s missed six fewer games, and her production is comparable to Collier’s. 

 Consider this: The Lynx went 5-2 without Collier because they are stacked at every position. Remove Wilson from the Aces’ lineup for seven straight games, and they probably lose all of them as they are 1-3 without her this season. 

Collier is ahead of Wilson in accuracy, logging a 58.5 effective field goal percentage to the latter’s 50.7 EFG%. Yet, Wilson’s team is not as deep, and opponents have more opportunities to load up on her. Furthermore, Wilson scores with less help inside the arc, as those shots are assisted 67.8% of the time, and Collier’s are 80.3%. All of Wilson’s triples are assisted, but she takes 1.4 nightly, making 0.4. Collier attempts 3.6, nailing 1.4 and 97.3% of those are helped.

Jonquel Jones won MVP in 2021, missing five games, the most by a winner. Yet that was when the season was shorter at 32 games, and she still logged 84.4% of them. Collier has missed 10 this season, and if she doesn’t miss any more, she’ll have recorded 77.3% of the matches. 

Wilson is a two-way force who creates overreactions easily. She is first in second chance points (3.9), tied for first with Collier in points off turnovers (4.4) and second in paint points behind Dearica Hamby (12.2). It might be enough to win her fourth MVP trophy in six seasons.