Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Three Heat needs for the rest of the season

The Heat are on a three-game win streak, and the low-level competition is largely responsible. It’s their fifth streak of that length, which is also their second-longest as they sit inches away from the six seed, claimed by the 76ers. Being in the top six bypasses the Play-In Tournament, which they have crossed the last three seasons, and it’s imperative they avoid it in 2025-26.

It won’t be easy since it’s been hard to count on health, plus the Magic are closely behind and own the tiebreaker. The Heat need a few things for a strong close to the regular season. They are…

Defined role for Tyler Herro

It’s been a frustrating season for Tyler Herro because he hasn’t been able to play but 13 games, yet he’s healthy now, and it should be a big help to the team. He’s a professional scorer who can create havoc as a starter or off the bench, yet the latter might be the preferred option for now to keep up the defensive style.

Davion Mitchell has been the starting point guard since he’s been their best playmaker for others and one of their top one-on-one defenders. When he’s out, rolling with the 6’6 Kasparas Jakučionis has worked. The rook has good passing instincts, doesn’t turn the ball over much, and uses his length to guard well.  He will eventually get more assertive as a scorer, but there have been flashes of that, most recently scoring nine points in the third quarter of Saturday’s win against the Grizzlies.

It’s not a sexy role to come off the bench the season after being an All-Star, but sacrifice gets noticed. This squad has many ingredients of similar impact and using them in different spots by having a key member buy-in, could take them from mid-level to something dangerous.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been terrific as a sixth man, but his lack of a deep shot makes it possible to scheme him out. Kel’el Ware is maybe a season or two away from putting it all together. So, Herro is left as the go-to because of his proficiency from long range in combination with comfort in playing at a fast or slow pace.

Thriving in the non-Bam Adebayo minutes

When Ware is focused and slightly ticked off, he’s a powerhouse with possibly the highest ceiling on the team. Yet it’s not realistic to expect him to be a complete player in his second season. Bam Adebayo wasn’t close to what he became in his sophomore campaign, either.

It’s harder for him to get going towards the rim with the team using the lowest screen roll frequency in the league. He’s capable of scoring off the catch and on short-range catch-and-go moves, but needs to get stronger to get in the post more to bank on his gifts.

Perhaps Keshad Johnson’s confidence from winning the dunk contest will carry over, and he can be the reliable backup big man option when it’s clear that Ware’s minutes aren’t working. Maintaining a rhythm while playing sporadically is a challenge, too, but they must avoid a drop-off when Adebayo rests. The team is most vulnerable without its captain as a security blanket on defense, so quick feet and effort on the glass are the only ways they won’t get exposed.

Better 3-point defense 

Defensive rating can be a misleading metric because it will never tell you how bad a team’s 3-point protection is. Nonetheless, the Heat allow the most open 3-point attempts (18.3) in the NBA, yet get lucky because opponents only make 33% of those. Additionally, they give up 17.7 wide-open 3-pointers per game, which is somehow fourth-best, but that’s an indicator of how behind with the times teams are at covering the arc. The Heat aren’t as fortunate on wide-open attempts as rivals make 38.3% of those.

They could permit a few to a handful fewer if they played the corners tighter and didn’t give unnecessary help on opposing drives. Keep in mind that 90% of 3-point attempts taken in the NBA are open to wide-open. There has to be equal emphasis in disrupting that as there is to take those shots.