Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Dealing with physicality is a problem for the Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t advanced to a Conference Finals and Finals since 2018, which was LeBron James’ last year with them.

They are tied with the Toronto Raptors and Game 5 is in Cleveland on Wednesday. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Cavs in year four of the Donovan Mitchell experience. Coach Kenny Atkinson says his most important role is making sure his players don’t get too high or too low.

In this series, defense and physicality have been the story. The Raptors are a long, fast and athletic team, and while the Cavs are more talented, they are smaller at times and some of their big guys are not significantly powerful, despite their skills.

No team has lost at home yet. If that trend continues, the Raptors won’t make it out of the first round, but they’ve tested the Wine and Gold in ways that don’t make it encouraging for their prospects against the Orlando Magic or Detroit Pistons. They’ve had trouble guarding Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Collin Murray-Boyles, and they are shooting between 52.3 and 65.9 percent against Cleveland. They are not a super trio but it’s a bad matchup for the Cavs. At some instances it looks like the Cavs are a team of super middleweights competing against light heavyweights. 

The Magic are now dealing with Franz Wagner’s calf injury, but they still have Paolo Banchero and Desmond Bane, two strong, dynamic scorers. The Pistons are down 3-1 in that series and while it looks bleak, it’s not over. If they manage to beat the Magic, they’ll be affected by not having a high-level shot creator next to Cunningham, but the way he, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart can pressure opponents should not be underestimated.  They’ve been the biggest reasons why the Magic are shooting 38.7 percent in the series.

Notably, every winner of Game 1 in the first round of the 2025 playoffs won their series. The only team that won Game 1 in this year’s postseason that is behind is the Denver Nuggets, down 3-2 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Yet most importantly, since 1984, the winner of a Game 5 when a series is tied a 2-2 advances 81.5 percent of the time, per the NBA’s Facts and Figures.

Quick note on the San Antonio Spurs 

The Spurs finished off the Portland Trail Blazers in five games. Keep in mind that they missed Victor Wembanyama from early in Game 2’s loss because of a nasty concussion, and won the next one without him on the road, coming back from down 15 points with 17 minutes left in Game 3. They couldn’t be stopped when Wemby came back and now they are sitting pretty, waiting for the winners of the Denver- Minnesota series. 

The Nuggets have the mighty Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, but the team struggles to defend the perimeter, and their coverages are even more compromised with Aaron Gordon’s calf injury. And the Timberwolves lost Donte DiVincenzo to a torn Achilles tendon, and it’s unclear when Anthony Edwards will be back after hyperextending his left knee. Edwards was already dealing with knee trouble on the right side. 

Regardless of who the Spurs see, they will have the edge.