The Offensive Shift in the Return of Jimmy Butler

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It’s hard enough to fight the uphill battle without Bam Adebayo, but being without Jimmy Butler takes that to an entirely different level.

Over the last 4 games without Jimmy Butler, the Heat have the 29th best defensive rating in the NBA, which is usually the case when you’re 2 best defenders are out of the lineup essentially. One being out means comfortable adjustments can be made. Both being out means you do creative things like run a 2-3 zone at all times with your second unit.

We haven’t gotten a good enough look at life without Adebayo, but that initial observation should be made tonight. With Butler expected to return, it’s time for the Miami Heat to get back to some type of normalcy.

When I say “normalcy,” I’m mostly pointing to the offensive adjustments that have been made over the last week. Yes, they have a fantastic play-maker running the show out on the perimeter, but they basically lost their base play-makers who operate from the interior.

Butler and Adebayo are known for working from the mid-post at least one time every trip down the floor, which then trickles down to putting pressure on the rim for some simple kick-outs. While life without both Adebayo and Butler has equated to straight flame throwing from three. Living or dying beyond the arc.

But like I said, change is coming.

Adebayo is as irreplaceable as it gets in this league, especially defensively, but we’ve seen Miami try to carry some things over in that sense. PJ Tucker taking over most of the DHO sets, and Dewayne Dedmon works them occasionally as well. Dedmon can also operate as that much needed roll presence without Adebayo, which means they’re just picking some of Bam’s skills up at a less elite level.

But without Butler, you can’t even try to do his work at a lesser level.

As we’ve seen as of late, they’ve pretty much abandoned all of the things he does well on a regular basis, and piled up on more perimeter aspects. More shots for Duncan Robinson, higher usage for Tyler Herro, etc.

When Caleb Martin, Max Strus, or even Herro enter the lineup for Butler, nobody is trying to emulate him offensively, because you simply can’t.

His free throw attempts can’t be matched, which have dropped to 29th in the league over the last 4 games.

His drives to the basket can’t be matched, since the only player who can draw close to as many people into the lane on the attack is out for the next 4 to 6 weeks.

His control of the game can’t be matched, while even though Kyle Lowry can speed you up into straight chaos, they’ve needed that guy who can slow things down to not let the game get out of hand.

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But well, now Jimmy Butler is back, and they’re heading straight into a period of time that is theirs to have. The next 10 days may be tough with Memphis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Cleveland, and Philadelphia up to bat on the schedule, but the following two weeks will be Butler time.

Orlando twice, Detroit twice, Indiana, Washington, San Antonio, and Houston. There’s a path to surviving without Bam Adebayo, and it begins with a strong finish to December, spearheaded by one of the league’s greatest leaders, Jimmy Butler.

Starting tonight, the Heat can move a little closer to homebase in terms of schematics, and that’s all you can ask for in this short-handed part of the season.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Bucks

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The Miami Heat faced off against the reigning champs tonight, and both sides looked quite different. No Giannis Antetokounmpo, no Jimmy Butler, no Bam Adebayo.

With that said, many short term takeaways can be made about this group, but the second night of a back to back without you’re two best players is why it’s hard to harp too much on this game.

So, here are some things I took away from this one…

#1: The Heat’s offense falling right into the Bucks trap.

Seeing the Bucks scoring 69 points in the first half may immediately equate to discussing the Heat’s defense, but I feel there were more things to note the other way around. The first reason for that was Milwaukee’s defense was schematically set up to compete tonight, and they did their job early. Everybody was instantly uncomfortable on that side of the floor with their solid help defense into quick rotations. That blended into an even worse trend for the offense: settling for shots. The mascot for that description was Caleb Martin threes, since the Bucks began to help further and further away for the ball to land in that exact spot. If he tried to penetrate, they were ready to help and rotate again. It’s more credit to Milwaukee early than pure Miami issues, but the shot profile cannot shift that dramatically.

#2: First half: comparing the top duo performances.

In a game when all headliners are off the table, in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo, the top dogs still matter. Well, the new top dogs. That led to all eyes on Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton for the Bucks, and they did their part, combining for 31 first half points and just controlling each side of the ball in the ways that they usually do. The issue was that Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro weren’t able to match that rhythm, as their first half is summarized by a combined 4 for 18 half of basketball. Once again, a lot of that refers back to the previous takeaway with the way the defense flipped completely between each team, but it’s just hard to win games like that. Herro being swarmed and Lowry on the second night of a back-to-back are the primary reasons for it falling off early.

#3: The bench player of the game continues.

Thinking back over this previous stretch, it always feels that Miami has one of their current/previous two-ways headlining a game in some way. Omer Yurtseven killing it late last night, Gabe Vincent stepping up when needed, Caleb Martin providing a spark. But tonight seemed to be Max Strus’ night after seeing his immediate impact in that struggling offense. Some quick threes kept Miami in it to some degree, basically keeping the theme of Robinson and Strus switching on and off every single night. To touch on a positive, discussing specific bench pieces stepping up in a scenario without Butler, Adebayo, Morris, and still no Oladipo, is a great sign in the big picture. And when it’s Strus, it’s an even bigger indicator due to him having the best odds to sustain his spot in that nine-man rotation for the remainder of the year.

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#4: Did Miami have enough? I don’t think so.

When Coach Spo or players talk about this team in terms of injuries, the same exact phrase comes up: “We have enough.” But it’s one thing to say it, and another thing to take it into consideration on a night like this. My opinion: they just didn’t have enough. That’s not a reflection of depth, since as I said before, many of them have done their part, but it’s much more about the overall structure when missing your two best players. The team’s leading scorer is missing, of course scoring is down. The team’s leading rebounder is missing, of course you’re losing that battle. They can squeak out some games, but until Butler returns, it’ll be hard to fully struggle in both of those departments from night to night and be okay. And frankly, high level play from Lowry and Robinson can mask them not having enough. When they look like guys on the second night of a back to back, it’s clearly different.

#5: On to the next.

The Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies are up next for this Miami Heat team, which is important to note in this post-game piece since it represents the Heat’s mindset tonight: already on the plane ride home. This next slate of games should be interesting for Miami, and the focus should be all about getting past December 15th, as the weaker teams in this league are all they will be facing to finish off the month. But that two-week period before the easier games is all about one thing, and one thing only: Jimmy Butler. It feels like we’re trending towards him suiting up on Monday night, but it feels necessary if Miami wants to end up with a W. Yes, the Grizzlies may be Morant-less, but with a win tonight, they’ll improve to a 4 game winning streak. And hot shooting teams that can hurt you from multiple angles screams the need of your best player on the floor. So, on to the next.

 

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It is time for Tua Tagovailoa to start at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins.

Goldie’s Best Bets NFL Week 13: Take Tua’s Dolphins again

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Goldie:

All Time Record: 226-120-1          

Vs. Spread: 167-179-1

 

21-22 Season:  100-65-1               

Vs. Spread: 78-90-1

 

Week 12 Record: 8-7                

Vs. Spread: 8-7

 

Guarantee Record: 13-13       

 

Upset Record: 13-12              

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff 

All Time: 31-10              

21-22 Season: 15-9       

Week 12: 1-0

 

Goldies Guarantee: LV -1

Washington Football Team (5-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)

Vegas Picks: LV -1

Goldie’s Take: Raiders Win 24-20

Raiders look to keep the momentum rolling after a big win in Dallas on Thanksgiving. The Raiders also have the rest/prep edge as they played on Thanksgiving, while No Names played Monday night. Raiders will miss TE Darren Waller, who’s doubtful for this game with a knee injury, but Washington is down multiple players as well. JD Mckissic, Landon Collins, and Wes Schweitzer are all already ruled out for this contest. AND Ereck Flowers is legitimately questionable. If Flowers misses the game this means No Names would be without both of their starting Guards. Raiders pass rush should take advantage of this and get Vegas a big win at home. I GUARANTEE IT!

 

Goldie’s UPSET of the Week

San Francisco 49ers (6-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-8)

Vegas Picks: SF -3.5

Goldie’s Take: Seahawks Win 27-26

Seattle clearly hasn’t been themselves all season. Things really hit the fan when Russell Wilson got hurt and missed three games, and even when he came back, the Hawks still haven’t looked like the Seahawks we’re used to. With all that being said, Seattle still has a small glimmer of hope at a playoff spot. If things are going to turn around for the Seahawks, it’s now or never. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are very aware of this. Some would even say Pete’s coaching for his job. Also, I don’t buy into the 49ers hype. UPSET!

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff’s Lock of the Week: MIA -6

New York Giants (4-7) @ Miami Dolphins (5-7)

Vegas Picks: MIA -6

Goldie’s Take: Dolphins Win 23-15

Don’t look now, but other than the Pats, the Miami Dolphins are probably the hottest team in football right now. During Miami’s four game winning streak we have seen their defense completely come back to life. Evident by the three INTs and five sacks they forced last week at the hands of Carolina. The box score doesn’t do that game justice either. The Fins defense DOMINATED Cam Newton and the Panthers. Carolina couldn’t get anything going the entire game. I envision a very similar result in this one with the Mike Glennon led Giants coming to town. Fins D controls the game, as Tua should be able to game-manage the Fins to their fifth straight W. The Crazy Uncle approves.

 

Minnesota Vikings (5-6) @ Detroit Lions (0-10-1)

Vegas Picks: MIN -7.5

Goldie’s Take: Vikings Win 28-24

Vikes coming off a disappointing loss in San Fran last week. What’s worse is the fact that stud RB Dalvin Cook was injured in that contest and is out for Sunday’s matchup in Mo-Town. Lions will also be without their star RB D’andre Swift, so that slow-moving offense takes yet another hit. Still, giving Detroit a good chance to keep this one within the fat betting line. Lions are 7-4 ATS this season, losing close games has become their bread and butter. 

 

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) @ Houston Texans (2-9)

Vegas Picks: IND -10

Goldie’s Take: Colts Win 28-14

Colts get a bit of a break in the midst of what is a very tough schedule. Bills and Bucs the past two games, and Pats and Cardinals on deck for Indy. Recipe for success in this one should be simple for the Colts. Feed Johnathan Taylor. The last time these two faced off, JT ran for 145 yards and 2 TDs to do his part in a 31-3 rout of their division rival. Expect a similar showing from Taylor this Sunday. Colts take care of business on the road. 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-6)

Vegas Picks: TB -11

Goldie’s Take: Buccaneers Win 30-22

Falcons have been one of the most inconsistent teams in football this season, so I’m going off trends in this one. Yes, I believe TOMpa Bay is clearly the better football team, but in their past 13 trips to the ATL, Tampa has only won by more than a TD just one time. Bucs will get the win, but I’m expecting Matty Ice to keep Dirty Birds in this one. 

 

Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) @ New York Jets (3-8)

Vegas Picks: PHI -7

Goldie’s Take: Eagles Win 30-14

After a tough loss to the New York Giants last week, Philly gets set to play on the road in the same stadium to face the New York Jets. I’m expecting a big bounce back performance for the Eagles in this one. Even after a loss where the offense only mustered 7 points, I still believe in Jalen Hurts and this offense. More importantly, I’m a big believer in Philly’s stingy defense. Birds are still my pick to land that final NFC Wild Card spot, and a rout of the lowly Jets is the first step in getting there. 

 

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ Chicago Bears (4-7)

Vegas Picks: ARI -7.5

Goldie’s Take: Cardinals Win 28-17

I don’t think I’ve picked Chicago one time this season, and that trend is not going to end here. Cardinals pass rush should give old banged up Andy Dalton fits all day. Plus Zona is slated to get back QB Kyler Murray and WR Deandre Hopkins. All signs point towards a Cardinals W in the Chi. Assuming Murray doesn’t have any setbacks with his injury, Cards should roll to a multiple score victory. 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

Vegas Picks: CIN -3

Goldie’s Take: Bengals Win 24-23

Toughest pick of the week for me because I have been a big Justin Herbert supporter for awhile now, however cooler heads prevail as I’m taking the Bengals to win this one. Cincy has won their past two games (against solid teams) by an average score of 25 points, while Bolts have really started to slip going 2-4 in their past six games. Giving Chargers a solid upset shot here, but smarter play is to take the red hot home team. Venue call!

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-4)

Vegas Picks: LAR -13

Goldie’s Take: Rams Win 31-17

Rams come home looking to bounce back after losing their last three games. This is the perfect game for LA to get back on track. To start, the game is at home so that’s a plus right away. Next, the game is against the Jags who have been near the bottom of the league for a while now. Rams loaded defense should make it a long day for Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence. Trev has had a very poor rookie year, and that trend should continue as he’s getting ready to face Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Rams cruise to victory at home.

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)

Vegas Picks: BAL -4.5 

Goldie’s Take: Ravens Win 26-20

Steelers were obliterated last week by division rival Cincinnati, while Ravens have been hanging on for wins in their past few games. It’s getting to be late in the season which means Big Ben starts to become weak and weary; expect a lot of Najee Harris in this one. Pitt should keep it close at home, but all signs point to the Ravens to get the win on the road. 

 

Denver Broncos (6-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Vegas Picks: KC -9.5

Goldie’s Take: Chiefs Win 27-21

Very confident in KC to win this one. Andy Reid is 14-3 when coming off a bye, and Mahomes is 7-1. Not too shabby. Also this one will be in Primetime at home. This has a Chiefs win written all over it. However, it is still a divisional game, and Denver has quietly won three of their last four. Chiefs will get the win but don’t be shocked when Teddy Two Gloves keeps this one within the fat betting line. 

 

New England Patriots (8-4) @ Buffalo Bills (7-4)

Vegas Picks: BUF -2.5

Goldie’s Take: Bills Win 27-24

Buffalo was finally supposed to seize AFC East supremacy when Brady left for Tampa Bay, but it seems the hoodie-wearing genius still has some tricks up his sleeve. Rookie Mac Jones seems to be fitting the offense perfectly, as Pats are the hottest team in football, winners of six in a row. However, Bills are the real deal on the other side as well. Should be an ugly game, as it’s supposed to be very windy and snowy in Buffalo on Monday Night. Viewing this one sorta like an old Kung-Fu movie. Young up and comer (Bills) have to go and take down the old wise OG who’s been the man for decades (Bellichick and the Pats). Get your popcorn ready, I think Bills are up to the challenge.

Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Indiana

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To kick off another game without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, Miami came out hot this time around. Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, and Tyler Herro getting it done early, and Omer Yurtseven getting it done late, led to Miami’s victory over this Pacers team.

So, let’s take a look through some pretty positive takeaways this time…

#1: Is that Duncan Robinson?

Well, the Duncan Robinson breakout finally occurred on Friday night against Indiana, which trickled down to Bally Sports’ technical difficulties shortly after. Clearly not a coincidence. It was nothing new for Robinson in terms of approach, except them just actually going in. His third triple of the night was the one to harp on: gets it on the wing, fires, and-1. Shortly after, he let out some frustration to himself, which seemed like the type of breakthrough he’s been waiting for. After they started to drop, the new Robinson that many predicted coming into the season was on display. Defenders flying right by him on the slightest of shot fakes led to clear driving lanes for him to attack. He was working that floater, forcing strong defensive rotations, and got to the free throw line in a way I haven’t seen him do his entire NBA career. He’s back.

#2: Kyle Lowry doing everything early on, providing a flash from the past.

Although Robinson had to be the starting point of this one, Kyle Lowry was the player of the first half. Not just because he scored 20 points in that span, but instead the way he was doing it. Knocking down the three is always a good thing to see, but his ability to attack mismatches was the true key. That’s the flash from the past. We saw it in that one fourth quarter against the Clippers, but without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, it must be the starring act more often. He’s clearly been pacing himself to preserve his abilities as much as possible, but it’s obvious this is the time for it to be utilized. Tyler Herro can be the number one scoring option, but Lowry needs to be scoring Lowry for them to win these games. And as he did in this one, can blend right back into his strong play-making ways as defenses overplay.

#3: PJ Tucker doing the early dirty work.

PJ Tucker’s stat-line at the half consisted of 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block. That’s pretty much PJ Tucker on a nightly basis, but tonight was slightly different just because of what was needed. We talked a lot about the need for scorers the last few nights, but with the main guys stepping up, they needed that guy down low to provide extra opportunities for them, which led to Tucker diving on the floor any chance he got. We saw some Udonis Haslem and Omer Yurtseven early on, while Dewayne Dedmon continues to be productive in his starting role, but Tucker is the key to it all working. Even after getting late Yurtseven production, they needed strong play from Tucker to even get to that point where they feel comfortable going the Yurtseven route. He was big tonight, and he’ll be even bigger as they move forward.

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#4: Tyler Herro not that bottled up spark, but the calming hand.

Tyler Herro is always going to be a spark with the way he can score the basketball at the snap of a finger, but that’s not *all* that he is. Without Butler and Adebayo, while Lowry is lined up on his side with other seasoned veterans, they’re looking to him to be that steady hand on the offensive end to either speed them up or slow them down. Like I said before, he has the keys to the offense no matter who is in or out of the lineup, but the usage is rising in this scenario. The other thing that’s currently rising: trust levels. Even while Spoelstra has trusted him to finish games since his rookie year, this is totally different. Tucker, Dedmon, Lowry, and others were waiting for him to take them where they needed to go. The 21 year old.

#5: Omer Yurtseven is ready.

Omer Yurtseven has been a garbage time killer many nights, leaving many observers wanting him to get that opportunity. Well, he got that opportunity early in this one, and it was kinda rough. He looked a bit timid, his decision making was too predictable, and was just searching for his way out there. Just like any young guy would. Spoelstra still had confidence in him through that second half for some more playing time, and he delivered. He found a rhythm in the zone defensively by altering shots, rolled with a purpose as ball-handlers found him, and stayed on his toes in an experienced fashion. Miami needed one young buck to step up over this stretch, and we’ve seen some flashes from KZ Okpala and now Yurtseven in back to back games. It’ll come down to match-ups, but Yurtseven showed tonight that he just needs time. And time will be coming his way.

 

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This Next Miami Heat Stretch: Tyler Herro’s Offense

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Yesterday was a “downer” from a Miami Heat perspective, as Bam Adebayo proclaimed it late last night.

Miami was stripped of a second round pick, which is absolutely the least of their worries. Bam Adebayo needs surgery due to him suffering a torn UCL in his right thumb against Denver a few nights ago, leaving him out for a lengthy period. And Miami kicked off their non-Bam stretch with an ugly loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

A very odd 12 hour stretch in the game of basketball.

Jimmy Butler was also ruled out shortly before game-time due to that hard crash in the game against Chicago, which was later reported that he should end up missing the next two games as well.

That’s a lot to grasp in a short period of time, but there is one overarching point to this big old mess that stands out: this is Tyler Herro’s offense.

It’s not a bold take whatsoever, but it’s just the truth as we project forward a bit. It was essentially his offense many nights when Adebayo and Butler were playing, but now he’s a solo act in many ways. (Further aligning with his post-game shades and outfit look)

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Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson are more unpredictable at this stage than the current/previous two-ways that are utilized. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin continue to do their part off the bench, which actually led to some of Miami’s most effective stretches of the night next to Tyler Herro.

That just can’t happen, but it’s basically expected at this stage.

Yes Lowry will still be on the ball and Robinson will still put up shot attempts, but if last night taught us anything, it’s that they will ultimately have to live and die by the production of Herro. And many games, that won’t even be enough.

The point is that he’s fully capable of having that weight on his shoulders, which is something the majority of people questioned before the season. Nobody could’ve predicted what Herro’s doing at this moment, but the fact that he’s undeniably your best and most consistent player when Butler and Adebayo go down is a pretty interesting development.

No shot attempt limit will be assigned to him. No single offensive style will he be slotted into. It’s just going to be Tyler Herro hooping, which is basically when he is at his best.

Will Miami win many games at the start of December if that’s *all* they have? I’m not so sure about that with two games against Milwaukee in the next 6 days, but the second half of December showcases some games Herro could potentially squeak them by.

Looking past the 15th of December, Miami will face Orlando twice, Detroit twice, Indiana, Washington, San Antonio, and Houston. And well, Butler will be back and ready to go at that point, which is when many of my worries about this team will start to fade.

But the next 14 days are going to be real rough for this squad. Some hard match-ups, an unclear roster, and a ton of weight on the shoulders of 21 year old Tyler Herro.

There isn’t anybody that should be worried about the latter, which is not something I could’ve said 4 months ago. We like to talk about plenty of awards with this Heat team, and many start with Herro’s 6th man of the year/most improved player chances, but something even bigger can emerge over this next stretch.

An All-Star appearance.

It’s going to be hard to predict team success, but if Miami can win some games, which will obviously be spearheaded by Butler and Herro, it’ll be hard to deny his case. If Miami’s in a top 4 seed by February 20th, while Adebayo clearly won’t be in the mix for that insertion, it isn’t crazy to say he has a very good shot to make his way in there.

The 22nd leading scorer in the NBA cannot be brushed aside when talking about a 21 year old who is coming off the bench, obviously with a good amount of sprinkled in starts.

Herro has everything in his possession. A potential trip to Cleveland as an All-Star, which doesn’t sound as delightful as it should. The continued starting reps that many have been awaiting. And well, the entire offense in the palm of his hand, as all of the savvy vets look toward him to take them where they need to go.

And he’s more than capable of doing that. It may look rough from a short term sense, but getting past the 2 week mark, things will change.

For the better.

And Herro’s extended emergence will quickly follow.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Cleveland

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The Miami Heat were as short handed as it gets on Wednesday night, as Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler were out. Ultimately, they just couldn’t keep up, leading to a rough start to the non-Bam stretch.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: A very different match-up for Tyler Herro out the gate.

Tyler Herro has seen many different match-ups and defensive schemes throughout this season. Best individual defenders, immediate traps/doubles, and quick tags when he drives. But tonight’s big man match-up was different. Very different. Isaac Okoro was guarding Duncan Robinson out the gate, which was quite the choice. That meant Lauri Markkanen was guarding Herro, which meant a change in the approach. He was basically forced to attack the basket in some capacity, then mix in some quick dribble moves in the process. He did that for moments. 15 first half points didn’t come as easy as they usually do, but he still got it done at a high level. Which is all that matters on nights without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

#2: Max Strus providing a much needed element.

Three-point shooting always seems to be below 25% at the end of first quarters, and a 1 for 9 start quickly followed tonight. They just need it from one specific guy, in the way they always would count on Duncan Robinson for that spark. But things just haven’t been the same. Max Strus has taken it upon himself to be that new elite sniper who isn’t one bit afraid to shoot the basketball, and that’s really all that is needed. He gave them a big offensive spark in the first half, yet they still trailed by 18. On the bright side, these current/previous two-ways have really done their job so far this season. Gabe Vincent has turned around the shooting, Caleb Martin is everywhere in his minutes, and Strus continues to be elite at his one specific skill. This team needs consistency right now, and at least those guys provide it.

#3: KZ Okpala minutes?

It almost felt like Miami was once again going to stay strictly in that 8 man rotation, since it took them until the second quarter to expand it to 9. Who was that guy? KZ Okpala. Surprisingly, he provided something that was missing, and really plugged some holes in the front-court. One play described his development: the shot-clock was expiring, a kick-out leaves him with the ball in his hands on the wing. He pauses, the defenders jump out, and he swings to Herro for a three as time expired. A previous Okpala wouldn’t have paused. I’m not saying anything big picture, but he did provide some early competent minutes in that back-up big role, and they will be calling for that a lot over the next stretch.

#4: An unusual defensive night in many ways.

The expanding Cleveland Cavaliers lead in this one wasn’t just a poor defensive outing from Miami in my opinion. They had a strong 2-3 zone base early on that really threw them off many possessions, and the communication allowed them to recover smoothly within that coverage. The thing about that is the Cavs team shot the ball at just an incredible rate. At one point in the third, when the lead was at a very high point, they were shooting 58% from the field and 50% from three. Just a very unusual recipe. I guess that’s just the version of this team with no Butler and Adebayo, and more Herro-Robinson lineups, but it’s still something to keep track of. In many ways, Cleveland took advantage of favorable match-ups in a fashion that Miami just didn’t on the other end.

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#5: No Butler. No Adebayo. No Robinson.

I don’t want to make this a locked in takeaway every single night, but it’s basically necessary when recapping a game like this. The Heat were without Butler and Adebayo tonight for obvious reasons, but Robinson seemed to find a way for a drop-off from his previous poor outing against Denver. Missed open shots continue to be the primary observation, while minor tweaks can be pulled away from his play through body language. It clearly happens when going through a slump of this capacity, but his body structure before these open looks prohibit them from going in even more. I’m going to keep drilling that it’s mental, but it’s going to be more than that if this prolongs over this injured Heat stretch of games.

 

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Miami Heat bracing for long absence for injured Bam Adebayo

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Following a game in which he started slow, and finished strong, Bam Adebayo was asked Monday night if his hand he kept flexing during the game was OK.

“It’s fine,” Adebayo said, flexing it again, seemingly without pain. “It’s fine.”

It’s not fine.

The Miami Heat revealed Wednesday that Adebayo will have surgery to repair a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament in his right thumb.

While the Heat did not provide a timetable, several sources told Five Reasons Sports Network on Wednesday afternoon that the “4 to 6 week” timetable that ESPN reported is conservative, and a best-case scenario.

Adebayo’s absence is likely to be close to double that.

That would put his return at late February or early March, not only significantly stressing the Heat’s front court rotation and starting lineup, but also taking him out of play to participate in his second All-Star game. It also derails his Defensive Player of the Year chances.

The Heat’s interior troubles are compounded by the extended absence of veteran forward/center Markieff Morris, who will miss his 12th straight game Wednesday with what the team has termed as “whiplash,” the result of a blindside hit from Nuggets center Nikola Jokic.

That leaves Dewayne Dedmon as the likely starter next to forward PJ Tucker, with rookie Omer Yurtseven finding his way into the reserve rotation. It also could mean minutes for captain Udonis Haslem and former second-round pick KZ Okpala against smaller lineups.

 

While Adebayo had frustrated some fans with offensive inconsistency, his importance to the Heat is undeniable, as one of the league’s most dynamic, switchable defenders; a secondary ballhandler and playmaker; and a core rebounder, even if his numbers in that area had declined of late, which appeared related to some soreness in his knee. Dedmon can replicate the rebounding, and has been solid in his bench minutes as he was in his first half-season with the Heat, but he is not as versatile as Adebayo. This likely means fewer dribble-handoffs with Duncan Robinson, who is already struggling.

It also means more of an offensive burden on Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry — at least until Victor Oladipo returns from his quad surgery, which actually now could be before Adebayo is back.

Miami simply isn’t accustomed to playing without Adebayo, who has been remarkably durable since the team drafted him 14th overall out of Kentucky in 2017.

This comes at a time when the Heat, at 13-8, were pivoting to what should have been an easier stretch of the schedule, following 13 of the first 21 games on the road. The Cleveland Cavaliers, with their big frontline led by Jarrett Allen, visit tonight.

For more, follow the Five Reasons Sports YouTube channel.

 

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Can the Dolphins Make the Playoffs?

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The Dolphins were 1-7 going into week 9 and many fans were wondering if it was time for another complete rebuild. There was talk of trading Xavien Howard at the trade deadline and selling off pieces like DeVante Parker as well. That tune has completely changed as the Dolphins have reeled off 4 straight wins and now are 5-7 with major momentum.  

 

Now we find out if Miami was just beating bad teams with the exception of Baltimore or are they actually turning the corner? 

 

The biggest key to the turnaround has been the offense finally starting to show some promise. Prior to the game vs Baltimore Tua had missed a few games due to what the Dolphins were calling a finger injury. It was widely reported that Tua could’ve played but Head Coach Brian Flores and company decided to go with Jacoby Brissett. Brissett went down with a knee injury forcing Tua to go in the game and provided the offense with a spark and Tua has started since.

 

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Another player that has broken out during the win streak has been rookie WR Jaylen Waddle. The last two weeks Waddle has had 19 targets resulting in 17 catches 202 yards and 1 touchdown along with one rushing touchdown as well. You can start to see the connection Tua and Waddle have dating back to their time together at Alabama. Waddle is emerging as the consistent weapon a young QB like Tua needs. 

 

The Dolphins’ remaining schedule is the Giants, Jets & Patriots in Miami and @ Saints & @ Titans. Those are some winnable games and in order to make the playoffs I’d say the Dolphins need to go 4-1 which will be difficult. That said it can be done if Miami plays up to their potential.

 

There’s a reason coming into the season Miami was projected as a 10 win or more team. If they are unable to make the playoffs, GM Chris Grier and HC Brian Flores may be let go which is another reason Miami will be motivated to continue the run at the playoffs. If the Dolphins do make the playoffs Brian Flores deserves a lot of credit despite the horrible start to the season.  

 

Young Talent Starting to Show up for the Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins continued their win-streak to reach 4 wins straight this past week. Although the Dolphins started the season 1-7, they won out in their past four games, thanks mostly to the young stars on their team.

Tua Tagovailoa has stepped up during the Dolphins win-streak. Tagovailoa’s season completion percentage is 70.1%, which would clock in as the 18th best completion percentage in a season of all time!  To put that into perspective, if the season ended today, Tagovailoa’s completion percentage would be higher than Tom Brady’s highest accuracy ever.

In Sunday’s game against the Panthers, Tagovailoa completed 27 of 31 passes, putting him 8th best for completion percentage in a single game in NFL history (when attempting over 30 passes). If Tagovailoa keeps this up, Miami may have a chance at winning the rest of their games, and maybe even securing a playoff spot.

Jaylen Waddle also played his best in an NFL game yet this past week. He was targeted 10 times, racking up 9 receptions. Waddle also recorded his first ever 100-yard game, gaining 137 yards. Waddle led the Dolphins in receiving, recording more than half of the total receiving yards, along with the only receiving touchdown by the team. Hopefully, this is a good showing of Waddle’s future, as he played amazingly in this game.

Defensively, the team’s rookies also showed out. Jaelan Phillips recorded three sacks this past week, his best game of this season so far. He led the Dolphins in sacks, and arguably put up the best defensive performance of anyone on the team. Jevon Holland also played well, recording his second ever interception in the NFL. It appears he’s headed for Pro Bowls if he can stay healthy, good in coverage and when applying pressure. Whatever one thinks of Miami’s 2020 draft, it appears that Chris Grier did well in 2021.

If Miami’s young stars can keep up this play, the future is bright for the team’s next few years.

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Nuggets

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The Miami Heat were looking for some revenge against this Denver Nuggets team, but as Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro were ruled out close to game-time, it seemed less likely.

So, here are five takeaways from this Heat loss to Denver…

#1: Kyle Lowry only first half starter to provide a consistent personal strength early.

In a game without Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, all eyes are at the guys at the top of the roster. It’s not just about those guys plugging the holes of the guys missing, but them just bringing their elite skill out the gate. Kyle Lowry was the only guy who truly provided that among that group. Bam Adebayo’s shot attempts and scoring looking to skyrocket, but that didn’t seem to pop out through the initial 24 minutes of play. So many things can be addressed about that topic, but he just doesn’t look like his fully healthy self at the moment. Duncan Robinson needed to explode from beyond the arc, but the exact opposite seems to occur. Aside from Caleb Martin’s plug and play excellence, Lowry was the only one among the top 3 to sustain his biggest skill: passing. Five first quarter assists can tell part of the story, but he just looked like an energized version of himself in this one, which was absolutely needed.

#2: Miami’s defensive fun against Chicago to defensive struggles against Denver.

Miami had some fun on Saturday night against the Chicago Bulls. No Tyler Herro meant more Gabe Vincent, ultimately meaning more 2-2-1 press and 2-3 zone. In a similar rotational setting tonight, those defensive principles could not be carried over. The reasoning is that you just cannot survive in a zone defense against Nikola Jokic, and that’s for a multitude of reasons. The main one is that a 2-3 zone calls for the big to flash to the free throw line extended, which is when Jokic is at his best. Scoring options, play-making excellence, etc. So, as Miami stayed in man for long stretches, Jokic had some more fun by attacking the Heat’s small lineups, which came up a lot in an eight man rotation. And well, no Jimmy Butler clearly dips your defensive plan.

#3: Heat’s short-handed bench only source of production.

The Heat’s first half didn’t equate to many positive takeaways, but the one semi-positive thing to note was the team’s bench production. The reason I say it’s “semi-positive” is due to the chances of winning a tough game without two of your best players, while the two bench pieces are the biggest stand-outs. But yet, they were. As Bam Adebayo’s odd struggles continue, Dewayne Dedmon was inserted and he was ready. Snatching rebounds, scoring around the rim, and obtaining more touches than many of those around him. Max Strus also came out firing, starting the game 3 for 4 from three, giving Miami some life through the muddy issues. Leading scorers at the half being Dedmon and Strus just says more about the top dogs tonight than it does about themselves.

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#4: Duncan Robinson’s shooting continues. But now, we’re past the 20 game mark.

I’ve spent many of these post-game takeaway pieces discussing the shooting of Duncan Robinson, which has been in a completely different sense compared to last season. Simply, the positional stuff, the sets he finds himself in, and the semi-shifting role must be thrown out the window at this exact moment. It’s just about…making ‘open’ three-pointers. I don’t think Robinson has found himself this wide open in the corner like he has so often this season. But it just feels like he can’t shake the mental side of this contract and new-look year. In no way is that an excuse for poor play, but it’s just the truth. He didn’t forget how to shoot and the differentiating spots aren’t *that* dramatic. It’s just about overcoming the hardest part of the game as a shooter, which now past the 20 game mark, is speeding up that ticking clock.

#5: Miami still awaiting the 4 quarter Bam Adebayo offensive focus.

There have been many points in the season this year where Bam Adebayo comes out super strong, but as the game grows closer in the fourth, that same guy isn’t there. Well, the opposite seemed to have struck in this one, as opinions were flying across social media about Adebayo’s underwhelming start. In my opinion, he definitely doesn’t look 100% as I said earlier, but if he’s out there, he needs to play up to a certain standard. That standard was finally held as he scored 15 points in the third on 10 shot attempts, ultimately showing that he’s capable of being that aggressive placeholder. The issue is that although that’s all great, the inability to display it for two full halves puts Miami in such an awkward and difficult spot by the end of it. He had decent moments when already down, but they need a tone setter in games like this.

 

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