Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Can Tyler Herro take another leap?

Is it wise to bet against someone who has improved every year of his career? It’s only possible to keep elevating when one spends numerous hours in the lab and desires more of their status. 

Of course, growth isn’t always linear and players plateau, but keep in mind that Tyler Herro was one of 10 ballers in 2024-25 to record at least 23 points per game on a minimum effective field goal percentage of 56.0. Notably, he played more games than the others on the list- Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Zach LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and Zion Williamson. 

Herro is entering his prime at age 25, coming off his first All-Star selection. He is finally settling into his grown man strength and creates separation easier than ever against the most pressure he’s ever seen. 

It would help the team if Herro became more of a threat, getting to the line, but it may not happen, accounting for his diet of shots sprinkled from short, mid and long range, unless he develops a killer feint as Dwyane Wade had. He might want to invest in that because it’s a league-wide epidemic that players can’t stay down.

An area he can improve is playmaking for others. His reads are sharper than ever, recording a career-high in assists (5.5) and in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.14) in 2024-25. Additionally, last year was his second consecutive logging over a 2.05 assist to turnover ratio.

His time of possession was 4.9 minutes per game last season, which was 25th for players who suited up for at least 70% of the year. It will presumably hover around the same spot even with the Norman Powell addition because Herro has the superior handle and is a better distributor. On top of that, Powell’s time of possession is 42% (2.1) of Herro’s.

Gauging Powell’s potency as a sniper, he should be a consistent screening weapon for Herro, who will then pass to him when triggering an overreaction. Playing faster is also a wise choice, particularly taking advantage of Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins’ athleticism in the open court. 

If coach Erik Spoelstra wants to experiment with more on-ball reps for Powell, Wiggins or Adebayo, Herro can adapt because he spent the 2024 offseason getting off-ball practice in and then logged a 59.3EFG% on catch-and-shoot attempts from everywhere in 2024-25. 

Don’t forget that the Warriors successfully used Wiggins to take the ball up-court in 2021-22, which took eyes off Curry. Herro is not Curry, of course, but he can succeed in similar ways without the ball. One way would be if Spoelstra incorporated more split action with Adebayo as the perimeter screener for Herro. Many big men don’t want to be out there and can’t, so Herro will have extra time when Adebayo roadblocks someone. 

Yet Herro said at exit interviews on April 30 that he wants to focus on closing games, which will sometimes require him to be a playmaker or decoy. “Whether that’s making a play for myself or making a play for a teammate, but ultimately just making the right and overall best play for the team.” He added that he’ll use film to work on it. 

Going into his seventh season, the league likely hasn’t seen Herro’s best.