Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Paige Bueckers is separating herself for the Rookie of the Year crown

Paige Bueckers led the Dallas Wings to their third win of the season, chopping down coverages like The Bride in Kill Bill against the Connecticut Sun. They sent doubles at her, and she wasn’t fazed by the pressure, either. It’s their second straight win, coming after a seven-game skid, and it was her fifth time leading her team in shots.

Coach Chris Koclanes hasn’t been so relieved at pressers since training camp. His bold move of having DiJonai Carrington come off the bench paid off as she supplied seven offensive rebounds and extended the lead to seven with 45.1 seconds left on a driving right-side layup.

Bueckers drilled 11 second-quarter points, curling around a stagger screen for a triple and made four mid-range jumpers. Her partner on four of those baskets was Li Yueru, who helped with screening and passed to her after offensive rebounds. Bueckers said after the game, “It’s super fun to play with her. She is super smart and has a high IQ…”

Bueckers is the leading rookie scorer (18.0) by 4.4 points. She is notably making 53.5% of her shots in the paint non-restricted area, which is one of the hardest spots to score because defenses collapse there against penetration. Additionally, she’s nailing 46.6% of her middies, which is her favorite look.

She still isn’t taking enough 3-pointers, but the team should change that immediately because she’s a deadeye despite her splits hovering at 33%. The most she’s hoisted is seven versus the Phoenix Mercury (71.4%) and five against the Minnesota Lynx (40%) and Golden State Valkyries (0%). She and Arike Ogunbowale can help each other here by running more two-woman sets, taking advantage of the separation they create on the dribble to make corner feeds or above-the-break passes. Defenders naturally overload on the ball. 

Bueckers’ confidence is rising with every match and it only took her 11 games to hit 35 points and three to record her first double-double of 12 digits and 10 offerings. She’ll doubtlessly continue on this pace and run away with the rookie of the year award because she’s a much deadlier threat to score and create for others than all her drafted peers. 

The Wings are logging the second-highest pace, but have the second-worst record in the WNBA as they are three games out of the eighth spot with 30 outings left.  They can still turn things around, but their defense will have to protect the 3-point line better and be sharper against screen rolls.