Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Tyler Herro is out for some time and what it means

The Heat are losing a significant piece of their firepower to start the season, as Tyler Herro will be out for an unspecified time as he recovers from foot/ankle surgery. He had a career year as an All-Star and was one of 10 players to log at least 23 points on a minimum 56 effective field goal percentage in 2024-25. 

His absence hurts the Heat further because he is an effective passer, recording a 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He also has the top connection with Bam Adebayo. 

Despite training camp opening on Sept. 29 and no rotations having been finalized, it seems that there are three starters in waiting: Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, and recently acquired Norman Powell. The best route for the starting lineup in this stretch is Davion Mitchell and Nikola Jović joining them. 

Mitchell’s point-of-attack defense is measurably superior to Herro’s despite being only 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-4 wingspan. His screen navigation with Wiggins and Adebayo’s speed, length, and mobility is a lot to work with. 

The drop-off is on offense as Mitchell can’t be depended on to create his own shot, but he can be a good connector for others. He averaged 5.4 assists and a 3.0 assist-to-turnover ratio in 37 games as a starter in 2024-25. Fifteen starts were with the Heat, and 22 were with the Toronto Raptors.

Jović has been developing for three seasons. The natural progression for a young player is being a starter by then, and he probably was the best option for the last spot before Herro’s surgery because of his versatility and Kel’el Ware having done less to earn it. 

Jović is Miami’s no.1 transition option at 6-foot-10 and is a decent perimeter release valve. He’ll take his game to the next level when he becomes a more reliable slasher, which he should have more opportunities for now. He’s got the potential to be more of a disruptor as a helper and post defender, too. 

While the Heat has respectable pieces to move up on the rotation, the most help has to come from Adebayo, Wiggins and Powell as they can do the most heavy lifting as two-way players. 

Adebayo can’t have a poor start to the season like last year, losing his confidence on offense. If he can get back to nailing 10-16 foot baskets at 49% accuracy like in 2022-23, he should be a nice weapon to run two-man sets with Wiggins and Powell.  

Powell will presumably have added ball-handling duties, but he is better at working off-ball. Expect to see more of Wiggins taking the ball up court, which he did in Golden State to take 10 eyes off Curry, to take pressure off Adebayo and Powell. If they play at the level they are known for, they can be decently over .500 with a handful of games by the time Herro returns.