Underdog Watch: Emerging College Football Teams Poised to Surprise

The 2025 college football season has proven once again that preseason predictions are merely a starting point, especially with the expanded College Football Playoff (CFP) creating new opportunities. As the calendar flips to November, several teams are firmly entrenched in compelling storylines, having either blown past their initial projections or seen their seasons drastically altered. 

We are now past the halfway mark, and the true contenders and surprise dark horses have finally revealed themselves. The narratives for these three programs are essential to understanding the current landscape and the race to the 12-team playoff field.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have transitioned from a preseason “dark horse” to a legitimate national contender under head coach Joey McGuire, making them the biggest surprise story of the season. They currently boast a dominant 8-1 record, placing them squarely in the conversation for a Big 12 Championship and a coveted CFP bid, and their rise is now reflected in this week’s college football spreads. 

Quarterback Behren Morton is enjoying a breakout year, commanding an offense that has proven capable of winning shootouts against league opponents. Their success is a testament to McGuire’s ability to maximize a deep roster built through strategic use of the transfer portal and excellent player development.

This is no longer a team flying under the radar; they are now facing the pressure of expectation as they sit high in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. Their remaining schedule will be a gauntlet of high-stakes matchups, where every snap will be under the national microscope. 

For a program looking for its first double-digit win season in nearly two decades, the Red Raiders have everything to play for in November. If they can maintain their current trajectory, they will shatter long-held narratives about the ceiling for the Lubbock program.

UNLV Rebels

The UNLV Rebels have energized the Group of Five, thanks to the star power of new head coach Dan Mullen and the dynamic play of transfer quarterback Anthony Colandrea. The team raced out to an impressive 6-0 start, transforming them into a national media darling and the early favorite for the automatic CFP bid reserved for the highest-ranked G5 conference champion. 

Mullen’s innovative offense has successfully harnessed Colandrea’s mobile playmaking, giving the Rebels an identity few opponents can truly stop. Though they are not true “underdogs” in their conference, their national relevance has vastly exceeded all expectations.

However, back-to-back losses have recently complicated their path, making their ultimate goal of a CFP spot much more challenging. The team now stands at 6-2, still bowl-eligible and competitive, but relying on help to climb back into the G5 title picture. 

Their remaining schedule is a must-win scenario, as they need to run the table and hope for key upsets involving rivals like Boise State and San Diego State. The UNLV story remains captivating, demonstrating how quickly a program can be elevated with high-level coaching and smart roster acquisitions.

Missouri Tigers

The Missouri Tigers entered the season with a strong foundation but faced immediate questions about whether they could consistently compete in the newly expanded and hyper-competitive SEC. Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz has silenced those critics, guiding the Tigers to a strong start that keeps them in the hunt for one of the conference’s at-large CFP bids. 

They have secured several crucial victories against tough conference opponents, showcasing a balance of a high-powered offense and a consistently disruptive defense. The veteran leadership on this team has provided the necessary grit to navigate a brutal schedule, keeping them relevant deep into the season.

The key to their continued success lies in their ability to grind out wins in their final few SEC matchups, which are all vital for improving their standing in the CFP committee’s eyes. They possess the talent and the coaching stability to challenge any team in the nation, making them a dangerous out for any top-tier contender. 

Missouri’s strong performance is setting a new standard for the program and proving that the path to the playoff does not require the historical dominance of the traditional SEC powers. The Latest NCAAF Insights and Trends highlight that they have firmly established themselves as a team that belongs in the national conversation.

An Underdog Story

The 2025 season has highlighted how rapidly fortunes can shift in college football, especially under the new 12-team playoff structure that rewards momentum, growth, and resilience. Texas Tech, UNLV, Missouri, and Boston College each represent different paths to national relevance, whether through coaching changes, roster development, schematic innovation, or renewed program culture. 

Their stories underscore that opportunity now extends far beyond the usual powerhouse programs that once dominated the postseason picture. As November unfolds, the coming weeks will determine which of these teams can convert potential into lasting achievement—and who will fade under the pressure of the spotlight.