Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Warriors need more from Draymond Green

The Warriors should have filled out a missing persons report for Draymond Green.  Maybe it would help remind him of Game 4 at Boston Friday night. 

 

Golden State started Wednesday evening’s affair on their backfoot.  Boston had a double-digit lead in seven minutes because the Warriors were overhelping on non-threatening shooters causing them to be late on closeouts, while also having to play 4-on-5 offensively on innumerable possessions and getting assaulted on the glass.

 

Tatum looked for Curry on the perimeter through forced switches so he could have the smaller man on an island.  Advancing to the hole, Curry would get caught at Tatum’s hip, making help on the cut necessary but exposing the baseline or perimeter.  

 

Climbing out of a 12-point deficit at halftime is no simple task no matter how great the personnel on the losing side is.  The Warriors came out of the break sharper and outscored the Celtics through 12 minutes, 33-25, attacking on the fast break, running pick ‘n’ roll and capitalizing on second chance points. 

 

In the halfcourt, Curry used a double drag screen from Looney and Wiggins on the perimeter to get Horford on a mismatch.  Al dropped unnecessarily as Curry turned the corner of the screen at the top of the key and splashed a deep tray. 

 

Defending the screen and roll in transition, Boston’s big-man, again, dropped into the paint while Curry stopped on a dime at the right elbow and hit nothing but nylon. Horford must have thought he was still defending Miami’s Kyle Lowry from the previous series.

 

 Golden State was down four going into the final stretch but Boston’s counter, ramping up the RPMs defensively, was too large an obstacle to overcome.  It only made it easier for the Celtics to defend while Green was on the perimeter because of all the space given to him.  The Warriors only scored 11 points in the fourth quarter on 33% shooting from the field and 11% from deep.

 

This series could look a lot differently if Green was living up the reputation of his name.  It’s hard to convince anyone a player is performing up to expectations when they have more turnovers than made field goals three games into a series.

 

One can only wonder what would have been the Warriors fate Sunday night if the referees called double technical fouls on Green and Jaylen Brown for their entanglement.  In the regular season, more has been made out of less.  Green already had one technical foul.  He was lucky the refs didn’t have quick whistles.

 

The NBA Communications department said Zach Zarba’s ref crew handled the situation correctly by just calling it a defensive foul on Green in Game 2.

 

Regardless, of what the league says, it could reasonably be argued the situation warranted double Ts.  Brown escalated matters by swiping Green’s legs off his side and then Green shoved his back and pulled himself up by grabbing Brown’s shorts before they exchanged unpleasantries.  

 

The series sits at 2-1 favoring the Celtics, but in order for the Warriors to have a chance on the road in Game 4 they’ll need more than what their starting power forward is giving them. Green’s defense in Game 3 was out of control. He fouled out in crunch time and his final statline read 2 points on 1/4 attempts, 3 assist and 4 rebounds.  Celtics players defended by #23 shot 6/16 from the field, yet he only contested four of those shots because of his reaching habit.  Playing like a free safety hasn’t worked well for one of the NBA’s best help defenders. 

 

On Wednesday, the Warriors gave up 52 paint points.  That’s on the group because the perimeter is the first area guarded.  A defense can only do so much when there’s a breakdown up top.  It’s difficult to expect a waning player like Green to cover so much ground.

 

On the other side, Green has trouble getting open in the post or paint.  More off and on-ball screens would help.  The man scarifying his body always has a short window to get the ball.  And hitting open shots would be a plus instead of leaving enough bricks on the court to start the construction of a new arena.

 

The Warriors have been in this position before going into a Game 4 in a hostile environment but that was seven years ago and the Warriors are now looking at a younger version of themselves.  Curry was once the golden goose of the league like Tatum is today.  Thompson was the ideal right hand man.  Brown’s current role.  Green was the swiss army knife complimenting the two but his edge has dulled.  Smart is that guy now.  And Kerr.  He led them to the promised land as a rookie head coach.  Ime Udoka is two wins away from doing the same thing for Boston.

 

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The Predictably Disappointing End of the Miami Hurricanes’ Season

The warning signs were there long before the NCAA Tournament. The Canes had lost 3 ACC road series in a row and gone 0-2 at the ACC Tournament, including getting run-ruled by Wake Forest.

But the home record was still intact, and when the Canes earned the #6 National Seed there was a prospect of finally making it back to Omaha without having to perform outside Coral Gables.

There was a caveat, though. Miami drew Arizona and Ole Miss in their regional, two very talented, underachieving teams. That meant on paper, the Canes were not better than those teams. Still, at home, and with what was essentially a free pass into the winner’s bracket with Canisius in the first game, Miami’s season still had promise.

The Long and Winding Road to Irrelevance

The University of Miami is young for a university, less than 100 years old. And for that reason, it is rarely a blue blood or aristocratic in anything. Baseball is the exception. Whereas in football the Canes burst onto the scenes as outsiders in the 1980s, in baseball they, through former manager Ron Fraser, were foundational in popularizing the sport.

And from 1973-2016 the Canes were mainstays, not just in the NCAA Tournament, making it every year, but in Omaha, making it 25 times.

In 2016, the last year of this tournament run, the Canes converted a national seed into a trip to Omaha. They did this, not by necessarily playing great, but coming through in the clutch. They won 2 one-run games in the regional to get past Long Beach State, and then used all 3 games to get through Boston College and make it to the College World Series.

But this was the beginning of the end. The Canes couldn’t hit in Omaha, scoring a combined 4 runs across two games. After getting blown out by Arizona, the Canes trailed UC Santa Barbara 5-3 in the 9th inning. They needed 2 runs to force extra innings. And with a runner on 1st and 1 out, with veteran lefty first baseman Chris Barr at the plate, maybe there was one last rally left in the 2016 Canes.

Except Barr never batted. In what was a horrific foreshadowing of the inexplicable demise of the program that echoed all the way into last Sunday’s elimination at the hands of Arizona, then manager Jim Morris chose to pinch hit for Barr with Peter Crocitto. It’s not that Crocitto was a bad player, it was that he had hardly played. Barr had 282 plate appearances in 2016, Crocitto had 60. In his last act as a Hurricane (he would go the NAIA route after the 2016 season), Crocitto grounded into a double play to end the Canes season.

Miami expected to be back. They always get back. And then 2017 happened. The Canes went 31-27 and missed the NCAA Tournament. They were the last team out, and this was largely due to their horrific play in midweek games. Miami was over .500 in ACC play at 16-13, but 1-game over .500 in non-conference did them in.

If 2017 was bad, 2018 (Morris’ last year) was worse. The Canes once again went 16-13 in ACC play, but were a game below .500 out of conference, missing the NCAA Tournament again.

To this day, current manager Gino DiMare stresses the importance of midweek games. Losing midweek games ended the NCAA Tournament streak for the Canes.

This history is painful, but it’s important to understand what Gino DiMare inherited. It was not the machine that Ron Fraser left to Jim Morris and that Jim Morris then carried forward for over 20 years. It was a failing program at its lowest point in over 40 years.

Not Good Enough

DiMare hit the ground running. The 2019 Canes were a resurgence. The end of the Morris’ tenure saw the Canes struggle at the plate, seemingly being left behind by college baseball. But the 2019 Canes powered up. A young team guided by power bats slugged their way through the ACC. Alex Toral was one of the top HR hitters in college baseball and the Canes were fun again.

They, frankly, should have hosted regionals, but they just missed out and were sent to Starkville. Miami was confident, but, in a sign of things that are now so commonplace as to be unnoticeable, the Canes blew the opener. It started well. In the 3rd inning, the Canes hit 2 HRs and went up 4-0. They just needed to press their advantage and step on Central Michigan’s throat to advance to the winner’s bracket game against Mississippi State.

What happened from there is going to be painfully familiar. The Canes gave up 5 runs in the next 2 innings, aided by a massive error resulting in multiple unearned runs. They ended up losing 6-5. Despite winning 2 in a row to eventually face Mississippi State, including an 18-3 win avenging the loss to CMU, the Canes were eliminated by Mississippi State.

2020 was going to be different. The bats were returning, the pitching staff was solidified. Miami was a Top 5 team. And then COVID happened, and the season cancelled.

The bulk of the pitching staff went pro, but in 2021, the Canes still had a good team, with most of the 2019 and 2020 field players returning. But something had changed. Whether through complacency or regression, the Canes were not nearly as good. By the time they went 0-2 in the ACC Tournament, any opportunity for a host had gone. And they were promptly sent to Gainesville.

Losing to UF has been a mainstay in the disintegration of the Canes’ program, so being in their regional was not a welcome sight. But like Moses parting the Red Sea, the bracket opened up for Miami. UF would lose to 4-seed USF and 3-seed USA. Miami just had to beat 2 lower conference, lower seeded teams to make the Super Regional for the first time in 5 years.

Despite Moses parting the Red Sea, the Canes still managed to drown in it. They scored 5 runs in 3 games, with the bats completely disappearing. Somehow, they won the opener 1-0, but lost the next 2 games and went back to Coral Gables a battered and embarrassed group.

Many of that promising 2019 class still had eligibility left, with an extra year being granted for COVID. Nonetheless, they were shown the door, scapegoated for the underperformance of the team.

Resurrection Of Sorts

Whether those 2019 players would have contributed this year is hard to say. With the Canes earning a National Seed, the regular season goals were accomplished.

But in the postseason, the bats disappeared again. They were able to score against Canisius aided by Yoyo Morales’ 3 HRs, but against Ole Miss and Arizona, it wasn’t nearly enough. In a Black Sunday which saw the Canes lose twice, and lose their season, they totaled 4 runs. More frustrating still is that they pitched well, and had it not been for errors in the field, and the inability to get productive outs, they would have won both games.

They could have put Ole Miss away early, with the bases loaded and 1 out. But the Canes swung their way out of the inning, chasing pitches out of the zone from a pitcher that couldn’t find it. After taking the lead 1-0, Miami couldn’t hold it. And when the Canes tried to rally in the 9th, with a 1-out double, they couldn’t.

Arizona was basically the same game. Miami lead 3-2, and had 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the 8th. They could have blown the game open. Somehow, they didn’t score. And with 2 outs and no one on, an error fueled a 2-run rally Arizona. When the Canes had the tying run on 3rd with less than 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, with the season on the line, the failure was inevitable. Miami, for what seemed like the millionth time over the 2 games that Sunday, just needed to put a ball in play. A productive out ties the game.

What did Gino DiMare do? He took a page out of his predecessors’ book. Lefty Eduardo Villegas was up against a righty. He could have let him bat. He also could have pinch hit with Jacoby Long, a low strikeout hitter likely to put the ball in play. Instead, he went to the righty Gaby Gutierrez, who had struck out 30 times in 86 plate appearances. If you’re asking if he struck out, you haven’t been paying attention.

And when a groundout ended the game, Miami had failed to advance to the College World Series as a National Seed for the first time in school history.

Full Circle

Somehow the Canes ended up back right where they started in their 2016 elimination from Omaha. 4 runs scored across 2 games, the last glimmer of hope frittered away with an inexplicable pinch hitting decision.

Something is broken in this program. As we saw the cacophony of scores reverberate across college baseball with teams routinely scoring in double-figures and eclipsing the 20-run mark, outside of a game against Canisius, the Canes couldn’t score. When they needed to make plays in the field, they made errors. A program built on clutch moments, clutch pitches, and clutch hits can no longer execute in the operative phases of games and seasons.

Seasoned veterans of Canes’ fandom wanted to believe this year, but by the 9th inning of the last game, even with a runner in scoring position and 1 out, they knew no run was coming. We’ve seen how this movie ends.

After the game, Dan Radakovich confirmed that he would be working on a contract extension with Gino DiMare. And it makes sense to do so. He’s in his last year of his contract, he took over a program that had missed the NCAA Tournament 2 years in a row, and is coming off his best season. Having him coaching on the last year of his contract makes little sense.

With that said, his best season to this point is not nearly good enough. This team is young and was not supposed to be as good as it was. But it needs to take the step the 2019 team never did.

After 2019, the Canes had a promising, bright future with a young, talented team. They ended up running those players out of town.

Now, in 2022, they are in a similar position, and should not suffer a regression. Contract extension or not, if this team does not progress next year, it should cost the manager his job. He should be empowered to make whatever changes he needs to break this vicious cycle of unrealized promise, and absent the ability to do so, someone else should.

Miami has gone from blue bloods to also rans. From forefront to afterthought.

Abraham Lincoln, frustrated at the inaction of his commanding general George McClellan during the Civil War, remarked:

If General McClellan does not want to use the Army, I would like to borrow it for a time, provided I could see how it could be made to do something.

If Gino DiMare does not take his army, this well-equipped, heavily invested in Canes Baseball program, to Omaha next year, then Radakovich needs to take it back and find someone that can see how it could be made to do something.


Vishnu Parasuraman is a journalist for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

5 Takeaways from Marlins’ Series Split vs. Giants

Coming off a disappointing series against the Colorado Rockies earlier in the week, the Miami Marlins looked to bounce back and defend their home field against the visiting San Francisco Giants over the weekend.

Miami won the first and third games of the series, but failed to close out the series win on Sunday as they lost 5-1 and ended up splitting the four-game series against San Francisco. 

The Marlins don’t play the Giants anymore in 2022, with the exception of  a miracle postseason berth, and finish 3-7 against them.

It was a very up-and-down series for the Marlins which also fittingly sums up their season so far.

Here are five takeaways from the series.

 

Sandy Alcantara throws another gem

Does this really come as a surprise? It seems like every start, starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara racks up eight or so strikeouts and gives up no more than one run. 

In the series-opening game against the Giants, Alcantara tallied eight strikeouts and pitched a shutout in seven innings. 

After his phenomenal performance, Alcantara’s ERA sunk down to a staggering 1.81 which is fourth in the MLB and second in the National League.  

 

Elieser Hernandez pitched his way out of the rotation

Starting pitcher Elieser Hernandez has really struggled this season. His 6.75 ERA is the worst among Miami starters and he has given up a total of 18 home runs all year, the most in the MLB. 

Hernandez’s outing against the Giants was probably the worst in his career. In the second game of the series, the Marlins opted to go with an opener to start the game. 

Left-handed relief pitcher Richard Bleier opened the game for Miami and didn’t pitch great. Bleier looked uncomfortable because he had been so used to coming out of the bullpen throughout his career, so opening a game was not what he had in mind. 

Hernandez would then come out of the bullpen in the second inning and he didn’t have an answer for shutting down the San Francisco hitters. Hernandez gave up eight hits and eight earned runs through 4.1 innings of work. Miami lost that game 15-6 and Hernandez was sent down to Triple-A.

“He hasn’t been able to gain any traction through the course of the season,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said about moving Hernandez to Triple-A. “I felt like the best thing for him is to get him down, get reset, let him get refocused, and let him work on things without the pressure of being in a big league game.”

 

Garrett Cooper is heating up, but where’s everyone else?

First baseman Garrett Cooper has been the lone bright spot in the Marlins’ offense during the series and was a big part in Miami’s come-from-behind 5-4 victory in game 3. 

During the three games he played in the series, Cooper went 7-for-14 and hit an opposite-field solo home run during the series finale. 

Cooper has been starting to get it going offensively and it’s been great to see. 

As for everyone else, the bats have been fairly quiet during the series. There’ve been too many strikeouts and not enough production with runners in scoring position. Also, where has the long ball been? Just one home run through four games. I know the ball flies at Coors Field, but even in Miami, the Marlins haven’t had a problem hitting the ball into the stands. 

 

Giants had too many extra-base hits

It felt as if every hit the Giants had in the series was an extra-base hit. Doubles, home runs, and triples were being sent all around the ballpark. 

Over the four-game series, the Giants had a total of 17 extra-base hits.

Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford even recorded a triple in the third game and if you’ve seen Crawford run, he’s not exactly Rickey Henderson out there. 

Sure, LoanDepot Park is a big ballpark and it’s easy to get a triple if you hit the ball deep enough into the corner like Crawford did. But also, the pitcher has to make sure that those types of hits don’t happen and the outfielders need to be quick to react to the ball.

 

The Walk-Off Helmet

In the third game of the series, the Marlins beat the Giants in the bottom of the ninth with a walk-off sacrifice fly by outfielder Jesus Sanchez that was deep enough to score third baseman Luke Williams with ease. 

In typical walk-off fashion, the players chased Sanchez around the field and showered him with sunflower seeds. But, is that a football helmet on his head? 

We’ve seen crazy walk off celebrations over the years but the football helmet has to be a first. 

Do I get it? No. Do the players look like they’re happy? Sure. And that’s all that matters, right?

Up next for the Marlins is a three-game series against the Washington Nationals.

That series will be played from Tuesday through Thursday at LoanDepot Park. 

 

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Photo by Tony Capobianco

 

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: The Heat Left Seeing Red

Boston left Miami red with envy.  Losing Game 7 at base must feel like the ache from taking a kick to the nether regions that will last until October.  Especially after competing so vigorously after going down 17 points in the first quarter and having a chance to take the lead with 17 seconds left.  

 

The Heat’s carelessness with the ball and poor shot selection dug their early grave.  Boston got out on the fastbreak and scored 13 of their first 24 points before Miami could get set on defense.  The Celtics gagged the home team, causing them to misfire on 14 shots .  The only break in the clouds for the Heat in the opening quarter offensively was Jimmy Butler’s ruthless cuts and pressure on the interior.

 

The last 36 minutes for Miami was a backbreaking effort by Bam Adebayo and Butler to keep the group alive that ultimately came seconds away from a trip to the Finals. They made 20 of the Heat’s first 24 field goals. Aside from them, the rest of the starters and ancillary pieces converted 12/43 shots.  It felt like Adebayo and Butler were the only columns holding up a collapsing house. 

 

The seven Celtics players defended by Bam recorded 2/14 field goals in Game 7.  It’s a shame he couldn’t be everywhere at once for Miami.  He also finished with 25 points and 11 rebounds.

 

Yet, the Heat got beat at what it does best- being the nastier team. Miami was up 25-24 in gathered rebounds at the intermission.  In the second half Boston cranked up their pursuit of misses, finishing 27-19 in that category for the period. The Green also logged six more loose balls recovered.

 

It’s worth remembering because the game was decided by four points.  The Celtics were the more assertive team and it’s a significant reason why they collected the conference crown and new east champs shirts and snapbacks.

 

The end was sweet for Boston, all smiles and hugs at the podium.  And bitter for Miami, frustration and shame on the way out.

 

At postgame press, Butler fell on the sword for his team.  He said he wasn’t good enough for the series, yet his final act in Game 7 was magnificent. It’s the type of stuff you rave to your children about.  Competing for 48 minutes doesn’t just take away your legs, one is also emptied mentally.  Like Udonis Haslem said, “He went for the kill…” but he stole the hearts of supporters.

 

Most of the public usually remembers the winners when they take a stroll down memory lane but often there is brilliance on the losing side that’s typically disregarded.  The ones who care could never forget.

 

Adebayo played 46 minutes and Butler registered 48.  The ship sank but they went down swinging.  Bam and Jimmy were the two radiant Heatles whose fire was last to burn out.

 

The dejected looks and talk about not knowing who would be on the team next season wasn’t even the saddest part of the night.  That was when an usher approached me and said they would be collecting three fewer days of pay because the Heat wouldn’t move on. 

 

On Tuesday, coach Spo was still decompressing from the loss but he said, “It’s a bottom line business and we didn’t accomplish the goal we set out for ourselves…”

 

The truth can sting when it rolls off someone’s lips, but he wasn’t wrong.  The Heat are held to the standard the group set for themselves when they made the Finals two seasons ago.  Anything less is for the birds. 

 

Pain can be the most effective teacher.  We’ll see how Miami relacibates and reloads after licking their wounds.

 

Could Joel Embiid Really Join The Heat?

The other day, Sixers center Joel Embiid sent out this tweet that led to a whirlwind of speculation. 

It immediately begs the question,  when Embiid says, “Miami needs another star,” is he referring to himself? If so, could Joel Embiid to the Heat be in our future?

Embiid Isn’t Wrong

First, let’s be clear that Embiid does have a point here. At the moment, Jimmy Butler is Miami’s best player, and the team’s only true “star.”

Bam Adebayo is probably the next closest to that designation, but he is not quite there yet. Looking at the rest of the roster, they have some great role players and veterans who were once stars, but their best days are behind them.

One thing is obvious, if Embiid joined the Heat tomorrow, he would immediately become the best player on the roster. What team wouldn’t want to add him?

Could Embiid Want Out?

The big question here is whether or not Embiid would actually leave Philly. He has established himself as the undisputed leader of the team and is beloved by that city. However, frustration could be mounting for the Sixers big man after a fifth consecutive postseason exit without making the conference finals.

Philly’s front office has failed to put a star alongside Embiid. They had Butler for the 2018-19 season, which ended in a heartbreaking game seven loss to the eventual champions in Toronto. Rather than trying to run it back, Butler was sent to Miami.

The latest attempt at finding a running mate for Embiid was a trade for James Harden. Unfortunately, Harden is a shell of his former self. Worse yet, he has an irresistible player option for next season that would pay him over $47 million, making him virtually untradeable.

Is Embiid willing to risk wasting another year of his prime on a team that will likely struggle to contend for a title? He might decide that the Sixers have had enough chances and that it is time to move on.

If he does, Miami would be a near-perfect fit. Embiid and Butler already have a great relationship and their playing styles mesh together well. Both are playmakers with and without the ball. Also, Embiid already plays with the tenacity that Heat coach, Erik Spoelstra, demands.

Most importantly, the addition of Embiid would transform a Miami team that is currently a contender into a juggernaut.

How Would a Joel Embiid to the Heat Move Work?

Given that Embiid is under contract for next season, any move would require a trade. Also, he cannot be traded until July 17. So, what would a potential trade look like? After using ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine, and then adding in some draft picks, here is one possibility:

Miami receives: Joel Embiid

Philadelphia receives: Bam Adebayo, Max Strus, Miami 2023 1st round pick, Miami 2024 1st round pick.

For Miami, Embiid would be a significant upgrade over Adebayo. Giving up Strus and two firsts is the price of doing business, one that they would happily pay. On the other side, any trade in which Philly gives up Embiid would feel like a loss. The compensation is not terrible, but it is hard to see how the Sixers get better in this trade. It is important to note that this trade would only happen if Embiid demanded it. This would give Philly little leverage.

Will it Happen?

At the end of the day, it is hard to picture Embiid being anywhere but Philly next season. I think it is more likely that Daryl Morey finds a way to either trade Harden or add another shooter. Still, this situation is something to keep an eye on. Embiid is heading into the final year of his contract. If the Sixers are not looking like contenders when next year’s trade deadline rolls around, all bets are off.

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Dalton Blackman***

  Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel  

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June to be a make or break month for the Miami Marlins

Finally on the other side of an abysmal 7-19 May that squandered the goodwill of a 12-8 April, the Miami Marlins kicked off June by splitting a doubleheader with the Colorado Rockies. 

The Marlins scored a total of 25 runs and demonstrated to be a team that was close knit and capable of providing their own energy. It could be the start of a run that they desperately need but the doubleheader also ended with the reminder that many of Miami’s efforts will likely be undermined by the futility of their bullpen.

The Marlins have recorded the second fewest saves in the National League. Only the last place Washington Nationals have fewer. Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott were the big bullpen acquisitions and both of them have an ERA over 5. Sulser was given the closer role recently but has blown two saves in his last three opportunities, including giving up the walk-off home run to Rockies second baseman Brenden Rodgers (his third homer of the game) in the 10th inning of Wednesday’s night cap.

As a unit, the Marlins bullpen has blown eight save opportunities this season. Having at least half of those going the other way would drastically change the Marlins season outlook. Anthony Bender leads the Marlins with six saves but starting April and May with a blown save has shaken management’s confidence in him to close the door.

Unfortunately for the Marlins, there isn’t an external solution to the bullpen. Calling a familiar face from Triple-A Jacksonville isn’t going to work and the Marlins aren’t at a point where trading for a high leverage reliever is worth giving up a prized prospect. Right now, the best way for them to mitigate future damage is to have the starting pitching go deep, cross your fingers and send in Anthony Bass and Bender to close it out.

Overall, pitching is Miami’s strength. Only three teams (San Diego, Los Angeles and Milwaukee) in the National League have a lower ERA and a higher opponent batting average than the Marlins. Pablo Lopez has a National League leading 1.83 ERA through 10 starts this season and Sandy Alcantara has a 2.00 ERA this season. It’s the first time the Marlins had two pitchers of this caliber at this point of the season. Both pitchers could be in the All-Star Game should they keep this up.

Edward Cabrera threw six scoreless innings, including five no-hit innings with nine strikeouts after being called up on Wednesday. If he emerges to what Trevor Rogers was last year (1.75 ERA in his first 10 starts) then the Marlins clearly have the starting pitching to move out of their current funk.

“He had some electric stuff,” Rodgers said. “And he’s throwing 95 mph changeups. That doesn’t happen pretty much ever. Maybe some guys like [Jacob] deGrom and maybe two or three others have stuff like that.”

With a strong starting rotation and an improved lineup that ranks 5th in the NL in OPS, the Marlins are a sleeping giant that could turn things around as soon as they break their one-run curse. Over the past two months Miami has played the most one-run games in the NL. Only the Toronto Blue Jays (22) have played more in baseball. Unlike the Blue Jays, who have won 14 such games, the Marlins (6-15) have lost more games by a single run than any other team the big leagues. Had they simply split that number 7-8, Miami would be 27-21 and competing for a wild card spot. 

Even with all of their shortcomings, the Marlins entered June with a Pythagorean win-loss record (which is predicted based on a team’s runs scored and allowed) of 23-23.

The Marlins are at home for the next two series, hosting the San Francisco Giants and Nationals. A positive homestead can change the trajectory of their season, or further the decent to the depressing depths of disappointment.

 

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: The Heat on the Edge

Boston humiliating Miami has become a habit.  The low-scoring final stat sheet won’t explain how ugly it looked, so I’ll tell you.

 

The Celtics smothered the Heat in Game 5 and held them to 1/8 (12.5%) shooting in the paint on looks outside the restricted area in the first half.  As a reference, the league average on interior shots outside of 3-feet from the hoop is 42.9%.  

 

Boston is defending Miami like a poor perimeter shooting team.  The Green swarmed the Heat up top using length with Brown and Tatum to deter cuts. On DHOs or off-ball screens, the Celtics often dropped in coverage, daring the Heat into a shot from either wing.  

 

The road team also sagged off the corners, with a defender roaming the high post ready to help on opposing drives or dart back outside.  On one possession when Adebayo had a mismatch with Brown covering the block, Derrick White neutralized the advantage by giving PJ Tucker space while he got in position at the high post to challenge a potential pass to #13.

 

Defending transition, Boston walled up quickly, denying dribble penetration in the paint for an open kick out to the perimeter.  Miami came away with seven steals and a handful of long rebounds that got them out in the open court, yet only five fastbreak points to show for it.

 

Miami began the third quarter up five points and was down a few possessions into it.  The Green curbed the home team to 4/24 shooting for the period.  It was the Heat’s second-worst 12-minute span of the Playoffs behind the opening quarter of Game 4 (3/20).

 

Entering the final stretch, Miami’s confidence looked fractured by the large sample of missed open shots.  By my count, the Heat bricked 14 makeable buckets before the fourth started ticking.  Off-ball screens and hand-offs on the wings were buying the shooters time to aim and pull up, but easy ones weren’t trickling down the nylon.  

 

At postgame press, coach Spo said, “Those last three or four minutes of third and into the fourth, the consecutive missed open shots started to affect us on the other end….”

 

 Butler concurred.  He said, “We’ve been like that all year long.  When we’re not making shots, we’re not guarding anybody….”

 

On the other side, the Celtics were getting the looks they wanted.  Strus was tracked early. On one play, Boston reset with Smart dribbling on the right wing.  He pointed to the block- a signal for Horford to step inside the arc and back down Strus who camped in the low post.  When Boston’s center shielded with his back, Strus fronted at his right hip trying to deny the entry feed, but Smart cleverly bounced passed to his big-man’s opposite side.  Horford spun left, dusting Strus and finding Williams under the rim when Adebayo came to help.

 

The Celtics didn’t convert outside shots like they’re capable of in Game 5.  Of their 33 attempts, only 20 were contested.  An ingredient to extending this series for Miami is expeditiously closing out on snipers.  Giving the opponent more than double-digit open looks from deep is a bad gamble.  It likely won’t work in TD Garden.

 

Miami is down for the first time in the postseason.  It’s the only real adversity the Heat have encountered but with their backs completely against the edge of a cliff.  In the last two outings, the Heat were shell-shocked for the entire game or parts of it.  History says they have less than a 20% chance of advancing.  When up 3-2, the Celtics are 40-4 all-time.  If Miami is going to get by, they’ll have to do it the hard way. 

 

******

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Heat-Celtics: Where they Stand Statistically Entering Game 5

Coming into the Eastern Conference Finals, there was a lot of buzz behind the Boston Celtics and their dominant 12.7 Net Rating since January, the #1 most important indicator of winning NBA titles, according to many basket-bloggers and NBA media.

 

For all the talk about the Miami Heat’s offensive concerns, in reality, both teams came into the series being almost complete mirror images of each other: two extremely switch-heavy, elite defensive teams who don’t score quite as well, with the Celtics and Heat ranking 1st and 4th, respectively, in defensive rating (and halfcourt defensive rating), and then 9th and 12th, respectively, in offensive rating. 

 

The Heat also ranked just one spot below the Celtics in halfcourt offensive rating for the season. After 2 rounds of the Playoffs, the Heat had a better offensive and defensive rating in the halfcourt as well. For some reason, it felt like the Celtics were getting the benefit of the doubt from NBA media, whether on TV, print or on podcasts, with the majority projecting the lower seed to be the favorite. 

 

However, ever since the first tipoff of the Conference Finals, there has been a wild point swing that ends up deciding the game, in every game of this series. Essentially, whichever team that put together the significant run(s) goes on to win the game every time.

 

In Game 1, there were 3 lead changes and 2 ties, with the Heat outscoring the Celtics by 25 in one quarter. 

 

In Game 2, 1 lead change, 1 tie, with Boston having a +25 first half.

 

In both Games 3 and 4, there were no lead changes and no ties. In Game 3, the Heat had a +21 quarter. In Game 4, the Celtics had a +18 quarter.

 

All of this has led to the Heat and Celtics being tied 2-2 in the series, despite the Celtics winning 9 of 16 quarters overall compared to the Heat’s 3, (2 tied quarters), because that doesn’t actually count for anything.

 

Here’s what’s actually taken place on the court, statistically, beyond just the wild point swings.

 

 

Let’s get this part out of the way: in this series, the Celtics have a 33.9 free throw rate as opposed to the Heat’s 19.4, (30.8 FTAs per game to the Heat’s 21). The Celtics are at the free throw line 6.9 more times per game in this series than they were in the season, the Heat 0.7 fewer free throws than regular season. However, as Zach Lowe has pointed out, the Heat ranked 27th in opponent free throw rate this season. Their extra-physical defense leads to a lot of foul calls.

 

The Heat have done a good job holding onto the ball and forcing the Celtics into turnovers in the ECF. Despite the Celtics getting more assists per game and having the higher AST% for the series, the Heat have the superior assist to turnover ratio. The Celtics turn the ball over 15.3 times a game (16.1 TOV%), to the Heat’s 11.5 turnovers a game (12.1 TOV%). The Heat are deflecting the ball 21.3 times per game to the Celtics’ 14.

 

The Celtics have a 7.7 Net Rating for the series.

 

The Celtics have been the superior team in transition, (139.5 to 132.5 offensive rating in transition), despite both teams getting out in transition at almost an identical percentage per game, (separated by 0.4%).

 

Although the Heat and Celtics have an identical amount of offensive rebounds per game, the Celtics sport the higher OREB% and DREB%, grabbing 7.3 more rebounds a game overall than Miami.

 

The Cetics are beating out the Heat in a couple of hustle stats: charges drawn per game (in which Heat were 1st in total charges drawn this season) and loose balls recovered (on both ends).

 

Oddly enough, the Heat have a 25 Net Rating in 3 mins of clutch time this series (within 5 points, within 5 minutes left), if that means anything to you. Miami and Boston ranked 15th and 26th, respectively, in clutch Net Rating this season.

 

The Celtics’ defensive field goal percentage for the series is 3.2% lower (better) than the Heat’s, with the Celtics’ DFG% being almost identical to what it was during the season while the Heat’s is 1.7% worse than what it was this season.

 

Despite the turnover disadvantage, the Celtics have been the superior team in the halfcourt, posting a 102.5 offensive rating to the Heat’s 90.5, due to shooting about 38% from three and 47.6% in the mid-range, which is 2% and 6.6% better, respectively, than how they shot from those areas in the regular season. 

 

They’re also at a 60.1% true shooting for the series, which is 2.3% higher than what it was during the season. Whereas the Heat have a 53.4%, an entire 5% lower than their regular season number.

 

This has come as a result of the Heat shooting about 32% from three and 40% in the mid-range, which is 6.7% and 2.3% worse, respectively, than they did in the regular season. 

 

More importantly, where the Heat are taking their shots from has drastically changed in this series compared to what happened this season. The Celtics came into the Playoffs giving up the 2nd lowest percentage of shots at the rim and the 3rd highest percentage of mid-range shots, while giving up the lowest percentage of shots made in the mid-range.

 

They’ve stuck to their principles, with the Heat taking 9.3% more shots in the mid-range in this series than they did in the season, which has coincided with taking 4.9% fewer threes and 4.3% fewer shots at the rim.

 

The Celtics’ shot profile in this series is very similar to what it was during the season, taking 1% more of their shots from three, 1.6% fewer shots in the mid-range and 1.2% more shots at the rim against the Heat.

 

If you’re an optimistic Heat fan, you might think there could be a clear regression to the mean coming for the Celtics and on the other side of that coin, progression to the mean for the Heat.

 

If you’re a pessimistic Heat fan, you say all of this points to the Celtics executing their gameplan and outplaying and out-adjusting the Heat through 4 games.

 

All in all, the Heat return to Miami having done what they needed to in Boston, securing one gutsy ass win on the road, coming back to a best of 3 series, with 2 of those being at home, including Game 7, if needed. The Heat, despite all the noise, chaos, data and injuries, are in control of whether or not they return to the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons.

 

So for Heat fans anxiously awaiting demise, trying to get out in front of the pain of defeat and despair ahead of Game 5, in an eerily similar fashion to the paranoia pre-Game 5 of Heat-Sixers and other decisive Heat Playoff games in the past, in the words of Pat Riley ahead of the 2019 offseason where he, Andy Elisburg and the Miami Heat organization were able to trade Hassan Whiteside, draft Tyler Herro and finesse the Philadelphia 76ers out of an elite player and their best playoff performer, all without having cap space, prompting them to a Finals run and an ECF run in 3 seasons:

 

“There’s no obstacles. Well, there are lots of them, but there are none.”

******

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: For the Heat, 2 down, 2 to go

For Boston, the refs, the ghost of Red Auerbach, and Jaylen Brown’s 41 piece weren’t enough to shake down the Heat minus their best player in the second half of Game 3. 

 

It was evident from the first couple of minutes that the Miami Heat weren’t going to get punked while surrounded by a sea of green.  Jayson Tatum looked for Max Strus on Boston’s first possession through a forced switch and drove to the hole but was provoked into a tough running floater that missed.  Kyle Lowry recovered the rock and pushed up the court to find Strus on the right wing for a triple.

 

Boston’s next possession. Al Horford had a mismatch in the left post with Lowry fronting for the entry feed.  Daniel Theis passed inside but the ball was batted away by Strus into Lowry’s hands for the takeaway.   

 

On the Celtics’ third try, Jaylen Brown was baited by Strus into taking an iso step-back 3-pointer at the top of the key.  It resulted in a rebound by Jimmy Butler, a quick outlet pass to Bam Adebayo who took the ball up court and crossed over Horford for a finishing cut at the rim.  

 

All five of Miami’s starters had scored on the first six shots of the opening quarter. Halfway through the period, the Boston fans had the same look on their faces as Heat supporters did during Thursday romping in Miami. Similar to the expression on Marlon Brando’s face at the end of Apocalypse Now when he whispers, “the horror, the horror.”

 

 The visiting team climbed to a 24-7 lead as it pummeled away at their opponent’s interior, converting 10/15 buckets in the box and 6/10 shots outside the square coming from transition opportunities and kickbacks from dribble penetration.

 

Adebayo has caught a lot of smoke for his poor play in Game 2, but to my understanding, he heard all of that noise.  Through the first two outings of the series, Miami’s big-man had only taken 10 shots from the field.  After the first half Saturday, Adebayo attempted 8/12 with his actions coming from attacking the paint in transition, a mix of post moves ending in a layup or hitting fall-away jumpers in the lane and pick ‘n’ roll.

 

It’s on Adebayo to be this dude every night.

 

Just before the conclusion of the first half, Miami had a 25-point lead, but their focus slipped.  The Celtics forced the Heat into low percentage and rushed shots, got out on the break, Horford hit an and-1 and Tatum splashed a corner banger with .5 seconds remaining, cutting the advantage to 15 heading into the third quarter.

 

There wasn’t much security in Miami’s lead before the final 24 minutes because Butler’s right knee was bothering him with inflammation.  Victor Oladipo started the third period in his place after sitting for a pair of quarters.  He was on the floor 71% of the second half, guarding his yard and disturbing Boston’s ball handlers. 

 

I thought Marcus Smart was done for this series as he screamed in agony and called for help following a failed attempt at an offensive rebound.  He challenged Lowry, bumping him in the air but Smart’s right foot didn’t come down flat and Miami’s point guard fell into his leg.  He could barely put weight on it when two trainers helped him hop to the locker room.

 

But then the broadcast showed a live feed of Smart running like Forrest Gump through the tunnel and back out to the court.  Some witch doctor cleared him to play with a sprained ankle.  As he made his way back to the floor, the crowd was hysterical, celebrating him like he helped raise the American flag at the top of Mount Suribachi in Iwo Jima. 

 

Past the midway point of the fourth, Tatum appeared to hurt his shoulder when Oladipo stripped the ball from him on a right cut.  He dropped to the floor as the next two possessions continued, frantically holding the base of his arm.  

 

I was about to pour one out for Tatum’s season but he was back on the court a couple of minutes later. For the second time in one half, Boston’s medical team performed some miraculous healing.  Perhaps they should be nominated for the Nobel Prize in Physiology or 

Medicine.  Or more likely the case, those theatrics are going to buy Tatum a long career in Hollywood when his playing days are over if he chooses.

 

I’m no doctor, but it sure was strange observing Tatum jump to the floor for a loose ball on his first possession back, or when he crashed into Adebayo’s screen with his right shoulder and knocked him over, feeling nothing.  

 

It’s important to note that for 47/48 minutes of regulation, Miami had meagerly taken seven free throws and Boston got 30.  It’s a very odd disparity.  The Heat attempted 34 field goals in the paint in Game 3 and Boston had 32.  

 

In crunch time, Jaylen Brown canned a deep tray from the left wing with help from an off-ball screen by Horford, making it a 12-0 Celtic run. Boston was down a point and Miami needed a basket like an adrenaline shot to the chest.  

 

But the Heat got away.  Strus curled from the corner to the right wing and nailed a 3-pointer with Adebayo setting a pindown in front of him, making Grant Williams go under, buying time for the release, and starting a 7-0 run that created too much separation for the Celtics to recover from.    

 

Without Butler in the second half, Adebayo and co. pulled off a signature dub on the road, avoiding being down a game in any series this postseason.  Two down, two to go.

 

*****

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Miami Dolphins Schedule: 5 Most Interesting Storylines

The Miami Dolphins schedule was released last week, and it is riddled with interesting matchups. The Dolphins are getting two primetime games, along with several more that may be nationally televised.

Following their trade for star acquisitions, many view the Dolphins as playoff contenders. Thus, their schedule has five key storylines to look out for.

Tua vs. Herbert and Burrow

The Miami Dolphins hold matchups against the Bengals and Chargers, the former of which being on Thursday Night Football. These three teams have been tied together for over two years, when they were all competing for the number one pick and the rights to Joe Burrow, who went to Cincinnati.

Miami, of course, selected Tua Tagovailoa soon after, passing on Justin Herbert, who has looked stellar with the Chargers. In a “do or die” year for Tua, it’s important to see how his progress stacks up with the fellow quarterbacks of the 2020 draft.

 

Brian Flores Returns to Miami

Following the conclusion of Miami’s 2021 season, the Dolphins opted to fire Brian Flores. A combination of friction with personnel and a lack of production on the offensive side of the ball caused Miami to look in another direction. However, this was called into question when Flores filed a lawsuit against the team and the rest of the NFL.

Flores alleged several teams of racially motivated hiring and interviewing practices, and accused the Dolphins of offering him incentives to lose games in 2019. 

Unable to find a job in this cycle as a head coach, Flores joined the Steelers as a linebackers coach. Coaching Mike Tomlin’s star-studded defense, Flores will make his return to Miami on Sunday Night Football in Week 7.

 

Deshaun Watson in Hard Rock Stadium

The most prominent factor in Miami Dolphins schedule for early on is facing the Cleveland Browns. The constant rumors about a Deshaun Watson trade. It loomed over the team for a large portion of the year, and former coach Brian Flores refused to refute any potential trades. Thus, the pressure was on Tua Tagovailoa, with the constant worry of not having his job in the coming weeks.

Following the trade deadline, the weight seemed to be lifted from Tagovailoa’s shoulders. He performed significantly better and led Miami on a seven-game winning streak. 

With Miami’s new staff putting forth full confidence in Tagovailoa, they backed out of the Watson sweepstakes. The controversial quarterback was traded to the Cleveland Browns and leads one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.

Many looked at Watson, Jacoby Brissett, and Jakeem Grant, as three players that would be in Miami in 2022. However, all three are on Cleveland together and will come down to Hard Rock to face the Dolphins in Week 10.

 

Mike McDaniel Revenge Game

Following the firing of former coach Brian Flores, the Dolphins figured that they needed someone who could change the game on offense. Thus, they hired San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, who comes from Kyle Shanahan’s elite outside zone scheme.

McDaniel took several staff members from San Francisco on his trip to the east coast. Namely, receivers coach Wes Welker (who played for the Dolphins) and tight ends coach Jon Embree. These three, along with other assistants, will go back to their old stomping grounds in Week 13. Miami will fly to San Francisco where McDaniel will meet his mentor, and potentially show him that he was ready to move on.

 

Beating the Bills

When Tom Brady left New England to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a power vacuum in the AFC East opened up. Each team made aggressive attempts to get better with hopes of taking over in the division. Miami and Buffalo, namely, have made vast changes to their teams over the last couple of years.

Now Miami fans (and Buffalo fans) circle their calendars every time the Miami Dolphins schedule drops.

However, the Bills have been much more successful in their approach. Making timely additions of Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and other contributors have vaulted them to the top of the East. Miami, on the other hand, has been on the outside looking in.

This has largely been in part to the matchups between the two teams. Miami hasn’t beat the Bills since 2018, when Adam Gase as their head coach. It is up to Mike McDaniel and company to change this if they are to contend for a title in the coming years. They face the Bills in Weeks 3 and 15.  

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Tyler DeSena***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel  

 

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