The Miami Heat fall to the Knicks in the Garden. A tight game all the way through, yet falling apart late.

It was a flipped script for the Heat, as Miami’s role players showed up, as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo quietly coasted.

Some takeaways…

#1: First quarter: two completely different stories to begin this game.

The Knicks come out with an abrupt 8 points to start this game, as the Heat couldn’t buy a field goal on the other end. After some of these previous performances, you could almost sense this team folding. But they didn’t. The next 14 points were scored by the Heat, giving a lot of the credit to their defensive principles. As I say often, this team was a top 5 defense early in the season for one reason only: forcing turnovers. That’s what they did in that opening quarter, forcing 7. Gabe Vincent was the main reason for that, which brings me to an even bigger takeaway: they need defensive Vincent much more often. His ‘in your grill’ type of style that we saw last year needs to be consistent, since that hasn’t been the case this year. He had a quick 3 steals, but he was just battling and contesting. This group needs a reliable point of attack defender in that guard room.

#2: Duncan Robinson in, Max Strus foul trouble.

Max Strus entered halfway through the first quarter as he usually does, but he exited a lot quicker than usual. After picking up 3 immediate fouls with the Knicks going right at him, Duncan Robinson had his number called. And well, he came in absolutely firing. Hit a quick corner 3 to kick off his stretch, but the next play is what stood out. Catches on the right wing, pump fake and attack for a paint touch, kick-out to Victor Oladipo, relocates to the short corner, and another 3 is the result. Why is that important? That movement is much needed in this Heat offense right now, and simply shot making is a good way to characterize a current Heat need. At halftime, he had 9 points on 3 of 3 shooting. It was a good boost to a constant uphill battle of an offense.

#3: Further lineup change needs to be coming…

Let’s talk specifics. When it comes down to evaluating this Heat roster, it’s clear that certain guys just aren’t cutting it. Actually a plethora of guys haven’t been cutting it, but only a few have the option to actually be shifted. Looking at the halftime stat sheet, you would see 0 of 8 shooting from Kevin Love and Victor Oladipo. All threes and 0 of 4 shooting a piece. When talking about Love, I think this experiment is coming to a close. The defense is bending to favor him, and the shooting is nowhere near the level they need it to be. I don’t think they have an option as they head into an inevitable playoff game. As for Oladipo, he subbed into the rotation again due to Kyle Lowry being out, but he’s not making his individual case any better. He just falls in love with that three ball way too often, and doesn’t really have an off switch even after rough starts. The rotation will be shrinking soon, but these two performances specifically is much more than a one half sample size.

#4: The Heat playing into an old blueprint.

As Erik Spoelstra would talk about in many postgame press conferences last season and even early this year, the team had a statistical goal on a night to night basis. Get 40 threes up. As the season went on and the three point percentages dropped lower, they pretty much got away from that style of offense since the team’s two best players don’t shoot threes and the role players are struggling. Tying this to tonight, a few minutes into the 4th the Heat were already edging up on the 40 three point attempt mark. They were hovering around 33% for most of that time, but that was pretty much all Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson. If it wasn’t for them, the Heat would somehow be below their usual mark. Don’t like them falling into this trap, but it’s just interesting to monitor.

#5: Late-game walkthrough…

Under 6 minutes to go, Quentin Grimes gets fouled and goes to the line, followed by Josh Hart going coast to coast for the dunk, quickly into a Heat turnover and Knicks run-out with Erik Spoelstra strolling onto the court for a timeout as they go down 9. Out of the timeout, we flowed right into the usual instant replay madness in today’s NBA. Josh Hart strips the ball from Jimmy Butler, who dribbles into a turnaround jumper that banks in, yet the official calls for a double dribble. They talk it over, give the Heat the ball back with no bucket, and Miami folds on a 4 second shot clock. Under 4 minutes to go, a Jimmy Butler tip-in and Tyler Herro mid-range pull-up add to the flow, but the Knicks kept answering. I often discuss consistency with this Heat team, but it feels even the energy operates in waves. With a tie game entering the 4th, the Heat needed a big quarter with the hole they’ve put themselves in this year, but they couldn’t respond yet again.

The Miami Heat took care of business on Wednesday night against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Hot three point shooting, early Jimmy Butler cooking, and one of their best offensive games of the season.

Some takeaways….

#1: Another night of early Jimmy Butler dominance.

Jimmy Butler came out in the opening quarter and put up a quick 12 points as he played the entire first quarter. The thing about those 12 points: 8 of those were free throws. He was getting to any spot he wanted when flowing downhill, and did his usual barreling into defenders to get to the line. Even though Jimmy Butler said the other day “Playoff Jimmy” isn’t a thing, I’m going to very quickly deny that statement: it’s a thing. He’s been seeming to really ramp up over the last week or so offensively, since you can slowly notice the volume rising. The key to a lot of this, though, is that he’s doing it with such ease. It just simply never feels forced. The moment it crosses the line of forced is when things can get sticky, but he’s just playing incredibly good basketball right now.

#2: Kyle Lowry anchoring the offense in his new bench role?

I’m going to talk the new look rotation next, but the role for Kyle Lowry didn’t change at all. Actually the thing that has changed the most as of late for him is the quality of play. The first half of the season, the adjective I kept using to describe him was “uncomfortable,” but this new back-up role has flipped that. The bench lineups have been atrocious, and he really settled that group tonight. Generating great ball movement for the offensive process, getting some paint touches, and just playing in his ideal, calm manner. Of course some relief triples would be huge from him in his role, but the secondary attacks might be even more crucial. If he’s willing to put his head down once or twice when that ball is swinging, that group should be in a good spot.

#3: Let’s take a dive into this new look Heat rotation tonight…

As I’ve been hinting at for a while, there was going to be a shift coming soon from the 10 man rotation to a 9 man rotation. The question was just: who will be the odd man out? Well, that guy ended up being Victor Oladipo, which honestly isn’t too much of a surprise with his play as of late. The other role players are just too important within their role in comparison to the wide ranging outcomes that can come from Oladipo’s minutes. It’s just one game, but still something. The other part of this is that the Heat actually did go 10, but that’s because there was a short leash for a certain rotation guy. Omer Yurtseven checked in and picked up 2 quick fouls. A little bit after, the Grizzlies run double drag with Yurtseven in that drop, and the ball-handler somehow gets behind him for the lay-in. Spo was furious on the court, and ended up going to Haywood Highsmith shortly after. Those defensive limitations are a real thing…

#4: It’s always been about the shooting.

With 4 minutes left in the third quarter, Kevin Love knocks down his third triple of the night to extend the Heat’s three point shooting to 48% on the night. Well let’s be honest, this is new. It’s usually me talking about the Heat generating decent looks but shooting around 20% from deep. I wouldn’t say the looks were *that* much different from previous nights in this one, but it was pretty obvious that the ball movement was much more improved. Not to blame Oladipo by any means, but I do think the ball sticks way too much with him in that second unit. Lowry did a good job of forcing swing passes, and Martin just doesn’t stop moving ever. The Heat’s three point shooting surged early last season and collapsed in the playoffs. The overly positive takeaway could be they’re peaking at the right time this year instead.

#5: Wait, not a clutch game?

Watching the Heat lead by 20 for a long period of time in the second half might be more of a new look than the rise in three-point shooting, Somehow even when they would lead, that score would evaporate rather quickly. Well, that’s the result of a team that looks anything north of serviceable offensively. Usually when these games continue to be “in the mud,” that just equals close game down the stretch. Why do clutch games continue to make appearances? It honestly may be as simple as poor offensive play and defensive overcompensating. Aside from the shooting, also credit to the Heat’s main three guys for coming to play. Butler was dominant, Adebayo was active, Herro was efficient. This is the time to keep putting these wins together.

Well, this wasn’t pretty.

There were ups, and even more downs.

But some big shots from Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler doing Jimmy Butler things led the way.

Some takeaways…

#1: Donovan Mitchell hot first half, eyeing the defensive plan…

Donovan Mitchell had a hot opening half on Friday night scoring a very efficient 25 points, along with 6 threes. In comparison to a game ago where the Cavaliers had Darius Garland, you would think the Heat would be able to focus more on the on-ball magic of Mitchell, right? Well nasty crossover after step back three gave a very different impression. The early problems weren’t that they weren’t focused on Mitchell, it was that they were *too* focused on him. By that I mean, they were getting lost off-ball time and time again, leaving them behind in rotations and giving Cleveland open slots to operate. From there, that’s when Mitchell got busy on his step back threes against single coverage. Felt like more blitzing and shading was necessary than he was being given, but this is the exact reason I’ve harped on leaning defense in this rotation by now.

#2: The turnover problems continue…and that’s a *big* problem.

There hasn’t been an extremely heavy diet of wins this season for the Heat, but do you know the common thread between most of them? The turnover battle. Before I get into the main slice of this from the game tonight, the Heat’s defense was elite for the sole reason of pressuring and forcing turnovers. More possessions, more fast-break opportunities, more of a chance to win with this uneven half-court offense. Now to the specifics of this game, they weren’t putting themselves in a position to win that battle with the amount of careless ones they were giving up. Part of this is the two primary offensive hubs aren’t guard creators, so the creation to your trigger is not a pass first guard. (I know what you’re thinking: that’s ideally Kyle Lowry) But it’s pretty simple that this Heat team isn’t good enough for Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo specifically to be that high volume in turnovers, just as the usage rises.

#3: My take on what’s needed from Bam Adebayo in a certain unit.

So the Heat changed things up a bit with the rotations recently, as Butler anchors the second unit late into the first quarter, while Adebayo and Herro exit early to re-enter with some of the role guys to begin the second quarter. But the usage of Bam in that lineup has stuck out to me heavily. They use him as a roller even more than usual, part of the Herro or Oladipo pick and roll sets, which ties back to the turnover conversation. Bam should not be a primary roller here. He needs to be a primary option off the attack on the ball. Cross screen into mid-post insertion. Pin-down into a curl at free throw line. The stuff that puts him in creation mode, instead of the reactionary base to the guards. This is something everybody wants to see in general, but it’s needed even more when Butler isn’t out there as well.

#4: Jimmy Butler doing Jimmy Butler things.

When it comes down to unwatchable stretches, this third quarter tonight was definitely up there. Heat came out and score a quick 10 points and seem to be rolling, yet things plummeted shortly after. Not able to get a stop on one end, with just an insanely bad offensive process on the other end, feeling like a full on grind every single time. With that said, late in the third, Jimmy Butler began resorting to a bit of a jumper display. He was hitting them, but that pretty much sums up the process of the offense. Even aside from the jumpers, he was the entire key to every Heat offensive run that was made in this game. Why is that? Well as I harp on repeatedly, his mid to low post touches are the savior to the Heat’s offense. He was getting whatever, whenever he wanted in this game, but the rough stretches for this team were just…rough.

#5: The fourth quarter…

Adebayo drives, kicks, and Herro finds just enough space to get off a leaning triple in the corner. 1 point game. Heat force a miss, Herro gets it into transition, pull-up three to take a 2 point lead. That was a stretch early in the fourth that shifted some energy back on Miami’s side. Heat force a turnover on an inbounds around the halfway mark of the fourth, leading to a Strus pass to Bam for the dunk. 3 point game. Butler began getting into some of that downhill juice shortly after. A tough lay-in into a bump and float jumper off glass into a strong drive down an open lane for the dunk. Heat up 7 now with Butler entering that mode. Some back and forth ensued with some triples falling in the Cavs favor, putting this game back at a 3 point lead for Miami. Another late shot clock jumper by Tyler Herro put Miami up 5, on an extremely tough step back. Mitchell responds again with a floater. A Mobley lob under a minute to go puts things at a 1 point game. 20 seconds left, Strus screens as Butler ends around, leading into yet another pull-up jumper. 3 point game again. Mitchell ends up getting fouled at the rim with 10 seconds left, putting Miami in a position I feel like I’ve seen them in 100 times this year. Martin knocked down 2 free throws, and Miami escaped with a win.

Heat beat the Hawks the second time in 3 days after a very strong showing from their bench.

Oladipo, Martin, Robinson come up big.

Some takeaways…

#1: Another horrendous defensive start for the Heat…

The Hawks were 2 points shy of handing the Heat their 3rd 70 point first half in the last 4 games. When it comes to expectations, did we think the early lineups they’ve been leaning into were going to be elite defensive units? I know I haven’t. But the issues have felt so simple when it comes to the schematics. The game-plan has been generally fine, yet the lack of resistance to stop the ball is the start of all their problems. This Hawks team wasn’t just killing them from deep, since they only collected 5 triples through the first 24 minutes. They were bursting by the point of attack with ease and making plays in the lane. 38 points in the paint in that first half, going 19 of 24 from the field in that range. Yeah, the shot profile was rather simple.

#2: In the meantime, Heat offense actually somewhat humming? But one constant downfall…

While the Heat were putting together an embarrassing defensive half, the Heat were quietly stringing together some of their best offense in some time. 7 of 12 from three and 54% shooting overall. A main key to that was the bench unit didn’t fully fall off a cliff, giving credit to Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin, who I will get into more extensively next. Like it usually is, all of their scores were heavy half court grinds and sets, but there is one downfall that keeps popping up: turnovers. If the Heat could find a way to wind that down a bit, the offense would be in such a better spot. Usually the second unit gets careless with Victor Oladipo leading the offense into some giveaways, but it’s the guard room in general. That screams discomfort. But either way, they were battling through that for positive scoring surprisingly.

#3: Caleb Martin finally thriving in his role.

Now when it comes to full on positives, Caleb Martin has been a major one over the last few games. As we’ve addressed all year, Martin needs to be in a role off the bench that fits him, as Bam described as “free,” while also pointing out the obvious of not having to play at the four. As for tonight, he saved the Heat’s offense. Not just because he had 16 points in that span, but the way he was getting it. Back-door cut, off-ball movement, simple slip. The consensus there, he was the only player for Miami that was moving in a way to support the hubs in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. He’s also athletic and skilled enough to make plays at the rim following the dime, leading to some early trips to the line. It’s pretty clear he looks extremely more comfortable at the moment.

#4: The two sides of Victor Oladipo on a night to night, play by play basis.

It’s been evident for a while when watching Victor Oladipo that it’s essentially a seesaw effect. There are the moments where he’s hitting shots, putting pressure on the rim, and forcing turnovers to get on the break. Yet there are other times where the turnovers are just way too much for the Heat to overcome. We saw both of these things tonight. In that first half, he was definitely loose with the ball much like the entire Heat roster, but he’s basically the man in control with that unit. Fast forward to the third, he really changed the outlook for them, beginning with a tough crossover and step back triple in the corner. He followed that up by just literally shifting the pace. Every rebound, every shot, while being on the ball or off, he was sprinting down the floor with clear momentum. It gave them a jolt, and that added pace is needed for this team, especially in that unit. Later to begin the fourth, a Duncan Robinson lob to Oladipo cemented that.

#5: Late-game finish…

Heat trailed by 1 with under seven minutes to go, and they were still searching for Duncan Robinson. Hand-off, denial, re-hand-off, three pointer. Trae Young responds with a three of his own, before Herro gets comfortable on a right wing three to put it back even at a tie game. 113-113. Out of the timeout, Heat get some offensive boards into an eventual kick-out to Caleb Martin for three, flowing back into a Jimmy Butler pick and roll who finds Herro in the same corner. That put Miami at 16 of 28 from three on the night. Hawks responded back to cut it to 3, before Butler hit a fading short jumper to put it back at 5. Heat muck up the play defensively, force a turnover, and Bam throws it down the floor to Herro. Up 7. Trae Young gets a floater to go, so Miami needs a bucket here. Heat keep going to the Butler-Herro PnR with Herro screening to get Young in the action: Butler floater. Another Young floater to counter, right before Herro turns it over on a blitz for a Murray lay-in. Heat up 125-122. Miami runs a Bam-Butler inverted PnR with 40 seconds left, and he hits the jumper. One problem: it was called a travel. Luckily Heat force a turnover on other end, and Butler gets fouled to ice it at the line.