5 Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Magic

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The Miami Heat escaped yet another rough offensive night against the Orlando Magic, expanding their win streak to four in a row. Another all-around Jimmy Butler performance led to this outcome, after a 29 point night, sealing it with a steal and a layup with 4 seconds left. Anyway, here are five takeaways from this game…

#1: Miami’s peak defensive potential on display throughout.

If there’s been any wonder lately how Miami has stayed at that number one spot in defensive rating, this Heat game solidified that. Miami has been exceptionally good at hitting passing lanes, rotating close to perfectly, and altering between different defensive schemes. By that I mean Erik Spoelstra’s continued adjustments throughout a game, rotating between man to man, 2-3 zone, and a 2-2-1 full court press. Obviously it’s a soft press since Tyler Herro was heading it with Andre Iguodala, but it still forces the opposing offense to play at a speed that they are not used to. Kelly Olynyk must be mentioned in this defensive discussion as well, since he’s made major leaps with lateral quickness, rim protection for spurts, and mostly denying post entry passes, which is a huge improvement for this team’s current success.

#2: The Kelly Olynyk-Jimmy Butler offensive duo being schemed by Coach Spoelstra.

As I’ve discussed endlessly since Bam Adebayo went out, Kelly Olynyk has seen a decent sized change in his offensive role. The offense is running through him for a lot of the game, which means they’re handing him the keys as a primary play-maker. This has led to Coach Spo running many more sets for these two together, including off-ball screens for Butler leading to lobs, as well as Butler finding Olynyk in alternate spots on the floor. The reason this is so intriguing is because Adebayo can be utilized in a different way when he returns as well, which can alter Miami’s major offensive issues. If this can force Adebayo into a slightly larger scoring role, instead of worrying about setting others up, it may be the one piece to put this whole puzzle together.

#3: A longer leash for KZ Okpala leading to a positive outcome.

While I’m discussing defense a bit, it seems necessary to throw KZ Okpala into the discussion. His defensive attributes have never been questioned, but it’s actually been about over using them at times leading to foul trouble and defensive breakdowns. But well, that wasn’t the case today, since he was in the right spots throughout the game consistently. The offense is the part that should be discussed though, since there were even more flashes in tonight’s first half. As much as made threes may excite some, the off the dribble attack is what will truly keep him in the rotation for good. That slight hesitance still seems to be holding him back a bit, but once that is overcome completely, that full potential will be reached.

#4: Jimmy Butler steps up in the third quarter, trying to counter Nikola Vucevic’s takeover.

Nikola Vucevic was not only a main topic for the portion of the night, but mainly in the third quarter. He couldn’t miss from deep during this stretch, expanding the Magic’s lead little by little. And since Miami’s offense just can’t get into any type of flow for a good portion of the game, it was time for Jimmy Butler to step up in that moment like usual. Three point shooting clearly wasn’t the strength of the night for Miami, which led to constant penetration from Butler to put in his work around the rim. It’s pretty obvious that he can choose his moments to score at will when he wants, but the issue is that others must balance that timely takeover with scoring of their own. And too many droughts seem to come up throughout in their half-court offense, mainly when Butler is off the floor.

#5: Tyler Herro: Reverting back a bit, showcasing some indecisiveness early. 

Tyler Herro must be discussed in general following this game, since he hasn’t done much lately to mention. But now, he’s showcasing previous habits, which is the flipping switch between positive flashes and unnecessary decisions. Although the numbers may not look bad when evaluating the box score, he had moments throughout that aren’t explained through a stat-sheet. There are too many instances with indecisive movements or the tough choice between shooting or passing. Although it seemed as if he may have been past that, it seems like he’s reverting back slightly. Now, that’s not a hard thing to touch up, since he just needs that natural Herro confidence once again, where he doesn’t worry about that previous miss or that last turnover. Duncan Robinson has made that adjustment, and it’s made the difference. But as seen late in the game tonight, Herro stepped up when needed to not only boost this team, but boost his self confidence.

Elieser Hernandez bounces back against the Cardinals

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Elieser Hernandez really bounced back on Saturday night’s matchup against the Saint Louis Cardinals.

The right-handed pitcher threw four really good innings, not allowing any runs, and striking out five, including Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, in his third start of the Spring Training.

Hernandez had faced the Cardinals five days ago and allowed three earned runs in 2.2 IP.

The Venezuelan pitchers is battling for one of the five rotation spots.

In his first outing, Hernandez pitched two innings and allowed one run against the Nationals at West Palm Beach.

This was the first of his three outings in which he didn’t allow runs, and should be pitching again on Thursday’s afternoon face-off with the Nationals.

The depth of the Marlins pitching talent might push Hernandez or some other young talents to the long reliever role, and Hernandez has proved he can perform in both roles.

Miami will not play on Sunday, and will resume activities on Monday, facing the Houston Astros in West Palm, with Sixto Sanchez making his Spring debut on the mound.

 

By Alejandro Villegas | @Alejandrovg32 on Twitter 

A Breakdown of Goran Dragic’s Fourth Quarter Display

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On a night that Miami’s offense struggled the way that it did, I didn’t think I’d be discussing that side of the ball in a breakdown article today in a positive way. But well, then Goran Dragic happened.

Jimmy Butler carried the load for most of the game, but a fourth quarter explosion from Dragic, scoring 20 points, led Miami to a win. So, let’s take a dive into that late-game offensive spurt.

– Pull-up triples

After Dragic went scoreless in the first half, he got into a bit of a rhythm late in the second half. Pull-up threes have been a part of Miami’s offense that not only struggled last night, but all season.

The Heat have always been a team that works drive and kicks in transition or straight up pull-ups from deep. On this play, the Bulls defense is scrambling, while two bigs are at the forefront of stopping the ball. Dragic noticing this, immediately pulls up from the top of the key in rhythm, which is exactly the type of shot that can spark his game.

Another thing to note is the arc on his shot on this play. You usually can tell the way Dragic shot is going to drop, due to the fact he has a high arcing shot, which usually drops in, or if he misses will bounce around the rim a few times. But when he’s off like he was in the first half, it just comes down to a flat-footed or straight on jumper.

– Offensive actions for Dragic

Even though it wasn’t a normal night for Dragic early on, the team could tell the way it was trending, since even Butler told him to takeover late. And as seen here, it’s more of those non-Butler minutes, which means the ball must be in Dragic’s hands to create offense.

On this possession, Miami flows immediately into a double screen for Dragic, giving him just enough space to pull. It seems like Patrick Williams read the scouting report on him, since he tried to angle inside to cut off a mid-range jumper. One thing about Dragic is that he always takes advantage of younger players who still are adjusting to the NBA level, which leads to an immediate change into a three pointer.

It’s not ideal to run constant offensive sets for your 34 year old veteran when Butler is off the floor, since Tyler Herro should be the guy at times taking over that role, but on a night that he had it absolutely rolling, it doesn’t seem necessary to discuss.

– The downhill Dragic effect

There are a couple layers to this play all together. For one, Miami has truly lacked a second guy who can put pressure on the rim consistently, and although the jumper was most linked with Dragic last night, the driving led to that.

But take a look at the Bulls’ defense on this play. Every player has their eyes on the scorching Goran Dragic, especially Denzel Valentine. Duncan Robinson notices this and sinks to the corner to be aligned with the ball. Dragic makes the right read to pass out to the corner, while Valentine closes out, and Robinson nails a very tough corner triple.

It’s usually Butler who is making those plays on drive and kicks, which is why Dragic is so important even when shots aren’t dropping. Also, that Robinson jumper is probably one of his most effective shots, since when he catches it higher, the better the release.

– Veteran moves

As I mentioned previously, there’s just something about Dragic when he’s guarded by inexperienced players. He just knows how to keep them where he wants, allowing him to get to his favorite spots.

On this play, Dragic and Chris Silva run a pick and roll, while Dragic utilizes a snake dribble to slide over. He does that to keep Coby White on his hip, or better yet his back, but White somehow recovered. He flows into a turnaround mid-range jumper with zero hesitation, which basically solidified this incredible offensive run.

Although Wendell Carter was doing his job to contain, it seemed like he was overestimating the offensive abilities of Chris Silva, since he was a bit too worried about him on the baseline. Dragic took advantage of that indecisiveness for a very tough bucket.

– More sets for the Dragon

Before diving into more of Dragic’s play, Silva’s understanding of the offensive and defensive scheme must be noted. He hasn’t had much run at the NBA level, but his dedication in practices have heavily carried over to games, since he was in the right spot basically every possession, which is the one downfall of KZ Okpala.

Anyway, Butler just checked back in at this point, which made the defense question if they would go to the hot Goran Dragic or the semi-unstoppable Jimmy Butler. Dragic curls off of an off-ball screen from Silva, and Butler immediately fed him the ball for an easy floater.

This is another example of the Bulls not really knowing much about Silva as a player, since they were constantly reluctant to step up on Dragic since they didn’t want to leave Silva’s side. It was a major reason for Dragic’s fourth quarter explosion.

– The definition of a tough shot

There are some plays where you can point to offensive reads or a slight pump-fake, but there are also times when it’s just a very tough shot that ends up dropping.

On this possession, it’s another pick and roll, this time from the corner, and Dragic gets to the mid-range and pulls with White right in his face. There’s nothing else to really point to with Dragic here, other than the fact that he was just in an incredible rhythm.

Also, take a look at Butler on this play. He starts on the opposite wing, and begins to walk towards the rim. Not to get the ball to score, but to try and get a rebound. He knew Dragic was shooting that shot as soon as he got the ball in the corner, especially since he was the one who told him to take initiative.

– The biggest change from half to half

One of Dragic’s biggest strengths is his ability to find and attack mismatches on bigger or slower defenders. He got the Lauri Markkanen switch many times in the first half, but he seemed a step too slow each time, leading to contested three-pointers.

But when he got that switch in the second half, it was a completely different story, since he did what he has done his entire Miami Heat career. In the first clip, everybody cleared for him to take it to his strong side, and he went into his signature behind the back cross, stopping Markkanen in his tracks and knocking down the jumper.

The second clip was the same exact shot he was attempting in the first half, except this one had much more bounce and a lot higher arc. That combination right there for Dragic usually leads to many positive outcomes, which is exactly what that fourth quarter was.

5 Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Bulls

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The Miami Heat took down the Chicago Bulls late, after a rough offensive first half. While Jimmy Butler controlled throughout, Goran Dragic stepped up late to pull them away. So, here are five takeaways from this game…

#1: Rough overall offensive flow in first half, except when Jimmy Butler has the ball.

It’s a similar theme every single night, since the offensive production heavily decreases when Jimmy Butler exits the floor. But tonight was much different, since there was absolutely nothing being generated when he was off the floor. Pretty decent ball-movement on the perimeter leading to contested three-point attempts, which mostly clanked off the rim. We can discuss Miami’s three point shooting being bad as of late, but there just has to be an alternative. Attacking the basket off the dribble should be utilized a lot on nights like this, but the personnel just doesn’t allow them to do that. Goran Dragic seems a step slow at times to completely get downhill consistently, while Tyler Herro just doesn’t seem to have that in his arsenal at the current stage.

#2: Kendrick Nunn seems to be the only comfortable role player.

While guys like Dragic and Herro seemed a bit out of whack in the first half tonight, Kendrick Nunn actually appeared to be the complete opposite. Even when offense is stagnant, he finds ways to generate offense for himself, which is the most important thing right now. He got to the mid-range early, and knocked down two nice looking triples to bail Miami out of empty possessions. Once again, talking about Nunn in this fashion is much different compared to a couple months ago. He’s become a consistent figure for this team, who is much more comfortable in different spots throughout the game to keep the team flowing into efficient offense. Playing in his hometown of Chicago aside, he has done this every single night since being inserted into the starting lineup, which has mostly translated to wins.

#3: Chris Silva inserted into the game before Precious Achiuwa.

Although Chris Silva and Precious Achiuwa played the same amount of minutes in the first half, which was a whopping 3 minutes each, it was quite interesting to see Silva get thrown in first. Since Bam Adebayo was out again, it seemed like it would be Achiuwa’s first chance to get some increased run at the NBA level, but somehow that didn’t happen. Now, on a night Miami struggled offensively, it wasn’t like Achiuwa would fix that majorly, but Silva essentially gives you the same exact thing. The pick and roll seemed worthless early on, but Achiuwa had a nice finish on a lob as soon as he checked in, which makes this decision very interesting. There might be more to this continued decision, but the overall trust level has surprisingly decreased since the beginning of the season. Coach Spo went to Silva in the second half as well, and he gave them some quality minutes as they made their fourth quarter run.

#4: Kelly Olynyk stepping into Bam Adebayo’s role yet again.

Kelly Olynyk has been a real bright spot in the games Bam Adebayo has missed, mostly since he’s been utilized in a different way than usual. Instead of being the offensive floor spacer, he has actually been the guy they work their offense through on the perimeter. And since he’s playing that role, the play-making abilities have continued to be on display. Not just through the constant action where there’s an off-ball screen for Butler leading to a lob, but also finding cutters when he’s in the post. As I discussed earlier, the offense looked very rough throughout the night, and without Olynyk generating offense when Butler wasn’t on the ball, it could’ve looked a lot worse.

#5: Goran Dragic gets hot in the fourth after tough first half.

The overall consensus in the first half when the offensive struggles occurred was when Goran Dragic would step up per usual, or if he would ever step up. Everybody’s always awaiting that stretch where he tails off a bit due to his age, but just as that showed for some time, it all turned around. Yet again, Dragic did what he does best late in the game, which is bailing the team out when they need it most. Hitting much needed triples, as well as getting to the rim consistently to generate offense for others. The non-Butler minutes will continue to get harped on due to the clear fall-off that occurs when he exits, but if Dragic can sustain it while Adebayo is out, the team will be in good shape.

A Breakdown of Kelly Olynyk Against the Magic

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The Miami Heat started off the second half of the regular season with a win over the Orlando Magic, and although Jimmy Butler was a huge reason for that, Kelly Olynyk deserves a lot of credit.

He was forced to play a role that he doesn’t usually play since Bam Adebayo was out, and he filled that spot quite effortlessly. So, let’s take a look at what stood out last night from Olynyk’s overall performance.

– A different role, same Olynyk

As mentioned previously, this play showcases the difference in Olynyk’s role last night. Although it seems like a simple and ordinary Olynyk drive to the basket, it’s a bit different.

For one, this is usually the part of the game where Adebayo is the screener and Olynyk is the floor spacer, but that wasn’t the case yesterday. He went up to set the screen for the mismatch, since Nikola Vucevic was out of the play guarding the corner. Olynyk reading that, received the ball in the post and went straight to work, getting an easy bucket at the basket.

It’s something I will point out a little bit later, but Olynyk’s feel for the offense has really seemed to make a jump this year, mostly due to consistent minutes.

– The silent play-making

Since Miami has one of the best play-making bigs in the league, in Bam Adebayo, Olynyk’s passing abilities get swept under the rug at times. But on night’s where he’s basically the only big, that part of his game shines.

This play shows the defensive respect of him as a passer, since after Duncan Robinson got his defender in the air and cut, the defender stepped back to prevent that. Obviously the defense must do that no matter the passer on the perimeter, but it just shows the many options in his offensive game.

When he noticed this happening, he immediately got into his shooting motion with zero hesitation, which is pretty much the motto with him every time, and I will discuss later.

Here’s a great example of that play-making trust. It was a designed play for Butler off of a great Tyler Herro off-ball screen, and the pass couldn’t have been put in a better spot for that dunk.

It was obviously a tight game down the stretch, so to see this team’s continued trust in that part of Olynyk’s game, working the offense through him late in the game, truly shows the growth of him on this Heat team.

And if Miami could run some creative stuff like this when Adebayo returns, it may be the perfect time for Bam’s scoring leap that many have been awaiting.

– Running the floor

Olynyk has always been a pretty decent transition player, since he knows when to run the floor, due to an advanced ability to read the pace of the game.

Before addressing Olynyk’s side all together, Kendrick Nunn’s point guard abilities continue to shine, especially on this play. A lot of guys that try to blend into that position have trouble keeping their head up and eyes lurking on the break, since they’re used to that push the ball and put your head down scoring technique. So seeing these flashes on a nightly basis is a great sign for him as a player and the current state of this team.

But now, back to Olynyk, take a look at the direction he is looking on the break. Obviously he’s looking at the ball-handler, but he also noticed every defender on the floor jogging with their eyes on Nunn. As he speeds up to the rim with no one in sight, he finishes at the rim with ease.

– A season-best defensive performance

Whenever I dive into Olynyk film, it always consists of his offensive play primarily, since defense is not one of his strengths. But last night, it was a strength for him, since it was one of the best defensive games he has played.

This article could go on forever with video examples of his constant denial on Vucevic all night, but I’ll only show a few. The one above just shows his defensive IQ, since although he had his hands full with Vucevic, he immediately went to help Goran Dragic with a clear mismatch, leading to an impressive swat.

Now, this is one example of the constant denial I just mentioned previously. With the Orlando Magic short-handed, it was even more obvious that the offense would go through Vucevic in the post from just about every spot on the floor. So, he fronted him on every possession, making him as uncomfortable as possible.

You may look at Vucevic’s 24 points and say, how did he have a great defensive game? But during his spurts on him, he battled the entire time, while also being a major proponent of the offense, which is another example of his role change.

If he could do this consistently with opposing 5’s, it’ll make this defense even better by giving Adebayo the luxury of playing the perimeter more often than he already does. And it’s pretty promising to be discussing areas of growth for their defense, since they’re already the number one team in defensive rating over their last 15 games.

– The shooting element

Well, it was one of those nights for Olynyk where the shots were dropping from outside the arc often. Real often.

The first clip showcases that Jimmy Butler downhill gravity that is constantly discussed, since Vucevic sunk in all the way from the top of the key. And when you do that, it’s a known thing that Butler will find the open man, even when getting caught in the air.

In the second clip, Herro and Olynyk run a type of pick and pop, while both defenders go with Herro, leading to a switch. But take a look at how Olynyk drags his defender back in for a second, before back-pedaling out to the three-point line for a triple. That slight movement caught the defender ball-watching, leading to another offensive possession generated by Olynyk.

– Reading the defender, cutting off the ball

This was the most impressive play of the game in my opinion, and not just because Butler made an incredible bounce pass.

Take a look at Olynyk’s patience on the opposite wing, allowing Butler to operate in the post. As soon as Vucevic turns his head toward the ball, Olynyk immediately sprints toward the lane, ending in an easy finish at the rim.

These off-ball cuts have become a staple of Miami’s offense recently, mostly due to defenses overplaying the three point line and three-point shots not falling a lot lately. Although it’s a big part of the Heat’s offensive scheme, adjusting on the fly like on this play reflects totally onto the individual player. And this individual player basically kept Miami afloat all night, other than Butler’s constant all-around takeover.

5 Takeaways from Heat’s Victory Over Magic

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The Miami Heat beat the Orlando Magic to begin the second half of the regular season on Thursday night. Jimmy Butler stepped up in every facet for the team with Bam Adebayo out, which is no surprise after his recent play. Anyway, here are five takeaways from this game…

#1: The continued quest to survive the non-Butler minutes.

The non-Butler minutes have been something that I’ve discussed for the Heat for quite some time. It’s a bit of a different story when Bam Adebayo is on the floor to fill some of those holes, but clearly Miami didn’t have him tonight. That basically means Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro would be looked toward to step up in that stretch, and Herro was trying to find a rhythm when he entered and shots weren’t falling much for Dragic. Offense became stagnant with that group, and there early defensive moments fell off rather quickly. It seems like there’s always a discussion about filling holes with this team, due to constant rotational changes, but on nights when it’s a banged up Orlando Magic team that you’re facing, it’s necessary to adjust and thrive.

#2: The KZ Okpala experiment to Moe Harkless experiment to Chris Silva experiment.

As mentioned earlier, Adebayo did not play against the Magic tonight, which made that starting spot next to Kelly Olynyk interesting. As expected, KZ Okpala got the nod, since starting Precious Achiuwa doesn’t make much sense with the lack of bigs behind him. Okpala showed some early flashes on the defensive end, leading to impressive transition offense, but three quick fouls sent him to the sideline quickly. Moe Harkless then checked in, and gave pretty much the same exact thing Okpala brought, with a bit less perimeter aggression. After Achiuwa entered for a short stint, Coach Spo threw in Chris Silva for a spark, and he actually didn’t look bad. When going that deep into your bench, the player probably won’t be very reliable, but Silva knows how to play his role in limited minutes, battling in a similar way that Achiuwa does.

#3: One fallen Tyler Herro jumper early alters his game.

Tyler Herro appeared a bit lost offensively throughout the first quarter in a game he was needed to step up. But once again, a similar theme came up with Herro involving his confidence. When the shots aren’t falling, he finds himself fading to the corner, becoming a floor spacer. But after a shot or two begin to fall, his game begins to operate from the top of the key or the wing with the ball in his hands. One three-pointer on the wing once Jimmy Butler checked in seemed to be that spark, leading to a timeout for Orlando. From that point on, he had much more bounce in his game, which means his ball-handling, play-making, and scoring abilities increase majorly. It just furthers the point that Herro’s confidence is not an overstatement, and holds much value for this team’s current success.

#4: A Jimmy Butler third quarter step-up necessary, but not ideal in big picture.

It was a tight game throughout the night, but Jimmy Butler stepped up in the third quarter to sustain a close score, which can be looked at in a number of ways. For one, it shows the overall dominance of Jimmy Butler to turn it on whenever he chooses. Doubling guys down low for steals into transition offense, working the offense through him in the post into back-door cuts for layups, and much more sparked this team for a short stretch. But it can also be viewed in a negative way, since Miami needed him to do that to tie the game at the end of the third quarter against a depleted Orlando Magic team. Now, obviously Bam Adebayo was out, which means an adjusted offensive and defensive scheme, but Miami’s other role players should be capable of stepping up in these spots. Once again, it does provide extra clarity on both Butler’s ability to flip a switch, and Adebayo’s overall impact.

#5: Some interesting Coach Spo adjustments late in the game.

Coach Erik Spoelstra’s adjustments were fluid in the fourth quarter tonight, finally finding a spark for Miami. They went into a 2-3 zone for the first time, which seemed to throw the Magic off a bit. Miami usually chooses to sprinkle it in throughout the entire game, so the opposing team can dissect it by the time the fourth quarter comes around, but that changed tonight. Another interesting Coach Spo adjustment involved the rotation, since Precious Achiuwa never reentered the game after an early insertion. On a night that Miami lacked any type of big, it was far from expected that Achiuwa would not be utilized. These type of games without Adebayo seem to be the best time for Achiuwa to find any type of NBA level rhythm, but Spo went the Silva route, which actually wasn’t a bad option.

Important Marlins Questions: Part 2

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With the 2021 MLB season starting in less than a month, the Marlins have a lot of choices to make.  I will detail my prospective answers to these questions. Here they are:

 

  1. Where does Garrett Cooper fit in Miami?
  2. Who starts at 2nd base between Jazz Chisholm and Isan Diaz?
  3. Who will be the 5th man in the rotation?

 

In this article, I will be answering question 2. With a well-balanced roster, the Marlins have one position that seems to be the only one truly “up for grabs.” 24-year-old Isan Diaz and 23-year-old Jazz Chisholm are currently battling it out in Spring Training for the title of Marlins second baseman. A lot of the conversation I have seen has been variations of the question “Who deserves the spot?” That is not the correct question to be asking, especially with only Spring Training to go on. Because, simply put, neither “deserve” the spot at the moment. 

 

Let’s keep in mind that both Isan and Jazz hit below .200 throughout the 2020 season. Neither has had significant success within the majors up to this point in time. So for that reason, I’ll argue that this decision should not be made based on Spring Training performance, but rather predetermined based on fit. 

 

Isan Diaz should be the Opening Day starter and here’s why:

 

Isan Diaz is the Marlins future second baseman

 

Isan Diaz is a second baseman and, for years to come, this is the position that he should be playing. He has an extremely high upside and is looking more like the player that the Marlins watched in the minors. He has been quoted saying that he “has his confidence back.” Whether or not that is true, Isan has the potential to be a key piece on a budding perennial postseason competitor in the coming years. 

 

Jazz Chisholm is not

 

Now, that does not mean Jazz Chisholm isn’t any of these things, He, much like Diaz, has an extremely high upside that can’t be ignored. He is also the future of the Miami Marlins… but not at 2nd base. He is a true shortstop and should be groomed to replace Miguel Rojas when the time comes. Until then, he should be getting reps at shortstop in the minors. Once he is ready, he can be brought up to be a platoon man/pinch hitter. 

 

The Marlins don’t have much to go on.

 

Neither player has had enough time in the majors to be classified as “statistically stronger” for the role. So, this decision for Miami can either be based on a biased sample of performance in the Minors and Spring Training, or it can be based on logic. From my perspective, the choice is an easy one. Let both Isan and Jazz develop at the positions that they are meant to play. Adjustments can be made if necessary, but for Opening Day, having Isan Diaz at 2nd base is in Miami’s best interest. 

 

A Breakdown of Miami’s Late-Game Execution

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While the Miami Heat are at the halfway mark of the regular season, it seems necessary to reflect on their first 36 games. Although there hasn’t been much consistency to this point, mostly due to the inconsistent rotations with players in and out of the lineup, Miami’s late game offensive execution must be noted.

It’s pretty clear that the Heat are always in a dog fight down the stretch, no matter the game situation, which may be a positive thing in the long run. So, let’s take a dive into some of Miami’s offensive possessions late in games.

– A Jimmy Butler shooting display

Why not kick off this dive into late-game situations with the one fresh on everybody’s mind. It’s pretty clear that a big portion of this article will include Jimmy Butler, since he’s the guy who will have the ball in his hands in these situations.

On a night without Bam Adebayo, a lot of the sets for Butler were running through Andre Iguodala. The first play was a normal DHO for Butler, which got denied and circled back through it. With zero hesitation, he pump-faked and got both defenders in the air, leading to an and-1 triple.

At this point, he was clearly feeling it, flowing into a tough step-back three over Eric Bledsoe, instead of taking it to the rim per usual in these situations. But I’ve highlighted this Butler ending in a past article, which is why the Iguodala part is important to mention.

One of the most widely known things about him is his high IQ and ability to read a defense. And on this play, he notices a very out-of-position Pelicans defense, and attacks the basket since there’s no protection. This sealed their .500 record before the All-Star break, putting this game out of reach.

– The Butler-Dragic PnR

Miami faced the best team in the NBA, the Utah Jazz, a few games ago, which went down to the wire as well. It was a 2 point game with 30 seconds to go, and the last thing you wanted to do was give the ball to a very effective Jazz offense.

Miami flowed into a Butler-Dragic pick and roll, which is something they go to frequently, with either Butler or Dragic as the screener. Dragic screened for him on this possession, allowing Butler to do what he does best. He had a much smaller Mike Conley back-pedaling, and put his shoulder into his chest, which sent him flying.

He hit a much needed floater to put Miami up two possessions, but the options on this play must be noted. For one, he could’ve dumped it off to Dragic for a wide open mid-range or floater, which would be the first option after the shot attempt. But also Duncan Robinson sliding from the corner to the wing could’ve been utilized, since Donovan Mitchell got caught watching Butler on the play.

It’s not a coincidence that late-game offense flows better with Butler controlling it, since the spacing is usually crisp when he puts his head down to attack.

– The normal Butler-Adebayo PnR, reading the situation

Now, there are a couple things to evaluate on this possession for Miami. For one, they have a comfortable 6 point lead with 30 seconds to go, but a bucket would put them up three possessions.

Of course they run the usual Butler-Adebayo pick and roll, which leads to a perfect dump-off to Adebayo for the lay-in. But the part to discuss is the ability to read a situation, as I mentioned in the past. The Raptors were running a very small five to close this game out, which means the clear plan should be to give it to Adebayo in the paint.

Once again, this highlights the comfort level and natural flow when Butler is the decision maker late in games, which is something a few top teams in the East lack.

– Tyler Herro shooting in rhythm

There’s one mutual reason for Tyler Herro’s shooting elevating late in games. Although it usually links to confidence, it’s actually the level of rhythm he shoots with in these situations.

Once again, it begins with a Butler-Adebayo PnR, while Herro loops around to the perimeter while his defender sinks a bit on the penetrating Butler. It seems as if the defender catches up to him when he gets the ball, but it’s too late for him to recover when he shoots with absolutely no hesitation.

Another thing to note here about Herro is the level of lift on this shot, on top of the amount of rhythm. It’s the main reason I discuss his recent struggles relating to missing some time, since when he gets a few games in him, the rhythm shooting becomes a given.

– Butler getting to his favorite spot on the floor

In a very important game on national television in an NBA Finals rematch, Miami needed to get back on track on the road trip after some tough losses. They were up three with less than two minutes to go, but this very possession ended up being the most important.

It is no secret that Butler will try to get to the free throw line at all costs late in games. On this play, it looked as if a dribble hand-off was going to occur, but Adebayo gave Butler the ball sooner, which basically meant drive baseline. He did just that, and went up rather slowly with his methodical movements, drawing the foul to put Miami up two possessions.

Although the late-game execution could’ve went in the total opposite direction with a turnover on the final play on an inbound pass, leading to an Alex Caruso miss, that cross-court pass to Butler is something they utilize regularly on the inbound. That basically means it was just a miscommunication, but still essential to mention while on this topic.

– A different plan down the stretch

Miami had trouble generating offense at this point of the game, which is why this exact play is important. Yet another Butler-Adebayo pick and roll begins the play, which is exactly why I wanted to dive into this type of article, and leads to a defense dissection.

Immanuel Quickley sinks into the paint, which further proves the amount of gravity Butler has when going downhill. Kelly Olynyk reads it perfectly and dives down the baseline, leading to a much needed and-1 finish.

This was the other play that must be shown in the same game against New York. It seemed like Miami would hold the ball for the entire shot clock to milk as much time as possible, but well, that was until the ball got to Tyler Herro.

He decided to end the game right then and there, which fully describes the type of player Herro is. Although this doesn’t really fall under the category of execution, since the primary plan on this possession wasn’t really executed, it still ended up in a positive manner, icing this game for Miami.

– Making winning plays

In a game without Dragic and Herro, while Adebayo had fouled out, Miami’s usual offensive sets could not be utilized. Obviously there’s expected offensive clutter at this moment, which is why the plan was to try and have Butler make a play late in the shot clock.

He missed a tough fade-away off the front of the rim, but Olynyk tipped it out for an extra 14 seconds on the possession. This ended up in a Kendrick Nunn three, which also clanked off the rim, but yet another tip-out from Iguodala this time, forced Houston to foul.

On some nights, you’re going to have to play in the mud down the stretch, which is something that favors Miami with the amount of gritty players they have on the roster.

– Butler-Bully-Ball to excellent defensive execution

I’ve dove into quite the amount of offensive plays from Miami, so let’s take a quick look at a defensive one. For starters, Butler decides to just go to work on Harrison Barnes, while being down 1 with 40 seconds to go.

But we’ve had enough Butler scoring talk for one article, which is why the defense is the focal point here. Butler goes for an excellent double on De’Aaron Fox late in the shot clock, leading to a pass to Richaun Holmes with Adebayo defending.

He got a piece of that shot attempt, which ended the game and snapped a 3 game losing streak. If there’s anything you want late in the game if you’re Miami, it’s Butler and Adebayo leading the charge on the defensive end, hounding the offense with constant switches and doubles.

– No Butler, no problem. Well, sometimes

Heading into this game, Miami just came off an unexpected loss to this same Pistons team. Obviously this was a very important game for Miami, even though they were without Butler and Herro.

And since those two guys were out, why not give it to the 34 year old veteran down the stretch, who always seems to bail them out when they most need it. They run a Dragic-Adebayo pick and roll on this play, while Dragic surveys the floor when he gets inside the three point line. As Mason Plumlee continues to drop, Dragic realizes the amount of space he has and hits a mid-range bank shot.

But let’s finish off this deep dive with another defensive possession. Jerami Grant looks to take Adebayo off the dribble, which doesn’t seem to be a great choice one-on-one. Grant looks to have beat him to the rim for half a second, but Adebayo angles it perfectly to cut him off, and rises up for an incredible block to clinch this game.

There are plenty of common themes when evaluating this team’s play late in games, but the overall takeaway is that a healthy team increases the amount of offensive options down the stretch majorly.

Important Marlins Questions: Part 1

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With the 2021 MLB season starting in less than a month, the Marlins have a lot of choices to make if they want to compete. In my next three articles, I will detail my prospective answers to the questions below.

 

  1. Where does Garrett Cooper fit in Miami?
  2. Who starts at 2nd base between Jazz Chisholm and Isan Diaz?
  3. Who will be the 5th man in the rotation?

 

In this, I will be taking a detailed look at question number 1. This is quite the weird situation for Miami to be in. With it seeming more likely that Jesus Aguilar will be the Opening Day First Baseman, Garrett Cooper is left without a spot. Keep in mind, Cooper was top-3 on the Marlins last season in Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, OPS, and Slugging Percentage. At the very least, it looked like he would land in right field. The Marlins instead signed Adam Duvall, who will rightfully be the starter in right. This leaves no room for one of the Marlins best hitters. What happens now? 

 

Let’s first take a look at the most-likely starters in the outfield and why Coop may be out of a role.

Marte

Starling Marte will without a doubt be the CF for the Miami Marlins in 2021; however, it is interesting to note that Marte had a well-below average year at the plate last year (both in terms of his normal stats and in comparison around the league). Marte has been extremely consistent otherwise, and will most likely break out of his rut with a full season to balance out his game. He is an All-Star talent and outclasses Cooper throughout their careers in many categories. 

Dickerson

Corey Dickerson finds himself in a similar boat, actually, near the identical boat to Marte. He had a well below average 2020 campaign, but boasts strong numbers throughout his career. The last two seasons where he was an everyday guy were years where he was an All-Star and Gold Glove winner, respectively. In that All-Star year, he hit 27 home runs. His strong career average and OPS are valuable attributes to any team going forward. Dickerson has had a strong start in Spring Training as he continues to look like his old self.

Duvall

This is where it gets complicated. Believe me, I’m big on Duvall. I genuinely think in any other circumstance, he should be starting all 154 games. He has been an extremely effective power hitter throughout his career and shows no signs of slowing down. Yet, Duvall in right leaves no place for Garrett Cooper. Duvall and Cooper are both stronger hitters on the Marlins, but it leaves Miami fans wondering why the front office went this route. Duvall can do what Copper can do at the plate, and he has played the outfield throughout his career. So he wins the starting role.

 

Where do the Marlins go with Coop?

So, does Garrett Cooper platoon with Aguilar and Duvall at times? This feels like the only option left, but not an optimal one. If that is the value the Marlins are getting, he may be better off traded away for more prospects (bleh). 

 

The Adam Duvall signing was a good signing in practice, but in theory does not make sense unless they plan on pitching Cooper, Duvall, or Aguilar at some point throughout the season. 

 

Overall for Marlins

 

I fully expect that either Garrett Cooper or Adam Duvall will not be in a Marlins uniform at the halfway point of the season. Especially if either plays significantly well early, their value as a trade piece outweighs their value as a pinch-hitter/platoon guy off the bench. Maybe that’s what Miami has been planning for all along. Time will tell.

 

What is the Next Step for an Improved Miami Heat Offense?

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While the beginning of the season for the Miami Heat seemed as if there was no true identity on either side of the ball, that has turned as of late.

The Heat are the number one team in defensive rating over the last 15 games, which is as big of an improvement as possible. Some may point to a more consistent Jimmy Butler in the lineup, but the defense has been strong even when he’s been out.

And that’s a big reason Erik Spoelstra deserves a lot of credit, since he’s been forced to use some players at the bottom of the roster and put them in spots to thrive. Gabe Vincent made a jump in minutes, mostly since he realized his unique ability at the top of the 2-3 zone and full-court press.

But although their defense has been consistently good, that hasn’t been the case for their offense. Over the last 15 games, they’re 20th in offensive rating, and somehow still ended up going 11-4 in that stretch. And quite frankly, a portion of those losses were winnable, including the LA Clippers game without four starters and the Golden State Warriors game with a decent lead and a struggling Stephen Curry.

So if there’s been success as of late with a struggling offense, what is the next step for Miami’s offense?

Well, the obvious answer would be a consistently healthy roster, but that can never be relied on this season. Miami’s played 36 games up to this point, while only 9 of those games included Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Goran Dragic all playing.

From a systematic perspective, it’s hard to pinpoint an exact reason. They’ve proved to move the ball exceptionally well, since a good portion of their field goal makes on a nightly basis are assisted on. Miami has gone slightly away from constant DHO’s, leading to much more back-cuts, which is essential on a team that prides themselves on off-ball screening.

But the true fix to improve Miami’s all-around offensive success will be to decrease the load from Miami’s veteran go-to guys. Butler and Goran Dragic are two unbelievable offensive players that are capable of sparking the entire offense, through attacking off the dribble, setting up others, and scoring down the stretch when it matters.

But if these two guys have been Miami’s only offensive hope in many games, how does it make sense for them to take a step-back?

Well, that’s where Miami’s young guys, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, come into play. This doesn’t mean Butler and Dragic need to take a step back, but less reliance on these guys in a half-court offense will allow this team to truly thrive.

There have been flashes from both Adebayo and Herro this season by taking over on their own, Adebayo in the Brooklyn Nets game and Herro in the Philadelphia 76ers game with only 8 available players. But when all four of them can play in the same game and all thrive in their own roles, that’s when the leap will occur.

Waiting for Adebayo to take offensive initiative has been discussed frequently, since his unselfishness leads to him trying to set others up, while Herro has struggled lately just through a lack of rhythm and flow after missing time.

When Adebayo can begin to find his favorite spot at the free throw line for mid-range jumpers consistently, and Herro can attack the basket without hesitance and kiss the ball off the glass with confidence, this team will be hard to beat.

In many ways, the rise of Kendrick Nunn has been a major reason for Miami’s offense landing 20th, since without his consistent play, the rating would be significantly worse.

The reason I’m discussing this in a broad fashion is because it seems pretty obvious that these two guys will be the only way large improvement will be seen. Instead of diving into the film today to breakdown certain possessions, it’s time to evaluate the first 36 games as a whole, and how to move forward in a positive manner.

If Herro can regain that bubble confidence with the ball in his hands, and Adebayo can attempt more shots per game than the number on his jersey, it’ll allow Butler and Dragic to have much more freedom in the regular season, instead of forcing them to do too much before the post-season even begins.

Now that the entire team gets a week off at home, that second half push will be ready to be made. And with a healthy Butler, a continued strong defensive effort, and the increased aggression from the guys discussed, there’s a good chance a .500 record will be the last thing they’re thinking about.