Can Week One Be Considered a “Must Win” for the Miami Dolphins?

The Miami Dolphins are looking to return to the NFL playoffs and maybe even end their quarter-century playoff win drought. That is easier said than done, but this year the path is right in front of them if they can stay healthy. Health is a key variable for every NFL team, but it is especially true for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins.

On the surface, a 0–1 start is not a death sentence. Many playoff teams stumble out of the gate and find their rhythm later in the season. But with the Dolphins, context matters, and right now the national perception is not on their side.

National Media Predictions

The outlook from major outlets is not encouraging:

• CBS Sports: 7–10

• ESPN: 8–9

• PFF: 9–8

• Bleacher Report: 7–10

• USA Today: 5–12

• Sports Illustrated: 6–11

• PFSN: 8–9

Most oddsmakers have set the Dolphins’ win total around 7.5 games, signaling doubt about Miami’s ability to navigate the season. The consensus narrative is that health concerns, Tua’s durability, and secondary depth issues make this team fragile.

But the Dolphins are more talented than these projections give them credit for. That is exactly why Week One looms so large.

Why Week One Matters More Than It Should

1. Culture

Winning breeds culture, not the other way around. Every coach in the NFL preaches “culture,” but it only sticks when victories back it up. A Week One loss to the Colts, an opponent many would argue Miami should beat, would hand national critics ammunition and test the Dolphins’ locker room resolve before momentum even has a chance to build. A win, on the other hand, starts the year with confidence and belief, both inside the locker room and in the fan base.

2. Strength of Schedule

Miami does not have the luxury of stumbling. The Dolphins face one of the more diverse schedules in the league, with five games against teams who they have a clear quarterback advantage against (IND, CAR, NO, CLE, ATL).

A slip-up against Indianapolis, however, would mean Miami has to play catch-up all season long. The math is not favorable. To reach 10 wins, which is likely the AFC cutoff, Miami would need to sweep both the Jets and Patriots or grind out victories against teams like Washington, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, the Chargers, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Dropping Week One only increases the pressure to pull off upsets later in the year.

The Stakes

The Dolphins are built to contend, but the narrative around them says otherwise. Media outlets see them as middle-of-the-pack, fragile, and inconsistent. Week One against the Colts is not just about starting 1–0, it is about flipping that script.

A win establishes momentum, validates Mike McDaniel’s program, and gives Tua the confidence he needs to silence critics early. A loss reinforces every doubt that has been cast on this team since the offseason and makes the road to January feel like a mountain climb.

So, is Week One a must-win? Technically, no. Realistically, yes. For the Miami Dolphins, the season does not just begin in Week One, it might be defined by it.