Paddack’s first impression lines up with recent Marlins free agent pitching flops

Even as stopgaps, free agent starting pitchers have not bode well for the Miami Marlins in recent history.

Cal Quantrill posted a 5.50 ERA last year. The Marlins went to the playoffs in 2023 despite Johnny Queto’s 6.02 ERA. Wei-Yin Chen (2016-19) was the franchise’s biggest free agent signing as a starting pitcher and the worst, making Edinson Vólquez (4.19 ERA, 2017) look like an ace by comparison.

While not sky high, Chris Paddack was expected to be different. Nicknamed the “Sheriff”, Paddack arrived in Miami on a one-year, $4M deal after posting a 5.35 ERA with the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers.

The Chicago White Sox put him out to pasture with eight runs on eight hits in the first four innings to win 9-4 and spoil his Marlins debut. His eight earned runs allowed in a team debut set a Marlins franchise record.

Six of Paddack’s eight earned runs came off two home runs from the White Sox. Austin Hays took a 95 MPH fastball high in the strike zone for a two-run dinger in the third inning. Miguel Vargas changed the trajectory of an 85.3 MPH changeup that fell in the middle of the zone and turned into a grand slam. In between all of that are six strikeouts in an outing that started with two shutout innings.

“It was off to a really good start, but as you reflect on the outing, a couple snowball innings there, a couple crooked numbers there in the third and the fourth, not how I envisioned my Marlins debut by any means,” Paddack said. “It’s not an ideal situation to be in to start the year. Especially coming off a really good spring, having some confidence going into the season.”

Nobody envisioned the result, but it was a debut 11 years in the making. Paddack was drafted in the eighth round by the Marlins in 2015 out of high school in Texas. He was dominating Single-A with a 0.95 ERA and 48 strikeouts in six starts before being traded to the San Diego Padres for All-Star closer Fernando Rodney in 2016. At the time of the trade, then-Marlins assistant general manager Mike Berger defined Paddack as “A guy that definitely plugs in as a, worst case, mid-rotation starter,” in an interview with MLB.com.

Paddack broke out as a rookie in 2019 with a 3.33 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 140.2 innings with a Padres team on the verge of becoming perennial contenders. He hasn’t matched those numbers since but has reached his perceived floor when healthy with the Padres and Twins.

After his fraught first impression, Paddack said Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara reassured him inside the dugout, saying, “You’re here for a reason. We believe in you. I believe in you.”

“He has my back, and it was cool to hear that from our ace,” Paddack said. “He noticed some things that were a little different there in the third and fourth than there was in the first and second. So I noted that.”

Alcantara is not alone in that opinion. Paddack was not brought to Miami to be a budding ace, but as a veteran presence meant to be productive in the bottom of the rotation.

“Results aside, we’ll get a lot better days out of Chris than today,” manager Clayton McCullough said. “He’s a pro. He’ll flip the page.”

Paddack is expected to pitch again in New York on Sunday against the Yankees.

“If I get the opportunity, I’m going to have 31 more starts,” Paddack said, “and that’s a long journey ahead.”