Super Bowl LX: Discussing the MVP Betting Market

The pieces are set for an intriguing Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium, featuring two teams that went 14-3 in the regular season, two teams that ‘grew into’ the season, and two teams with contrasting styles. It’s an incredibly fascinating matchup, and one that looks high difficult to call, even if the Seattle Seahawks have been placed as clear moneyline favorites. 

Yet, leaving aside the outcome of the game itself, we wanted to have a little look at the MVP markets, something that often attracts bettors looking for a bit of value in the market. Five of the last six Super Bowl MVP winners have been the quarterbacks for the winning team, so it’s become a common strategy for bettors to jump on that market instead of the basic moneyline or spread. 

Better value in MVP markets?

The logic of the bet is plain to see. If you fancy Team A to win at X odds, you know that the odds of Team A’s quarterback winning the MVP will be higher than the moneyline market. For example, at Super Bowl LIX, those who fancied the Eagles could have jumped on Jalen Hurts to win the MVP market at approximately +400, which duly obliged as a winning bet. 

For this game, DraftKings’ Super Bowl LX lines have Sam Darnold as the +130 favorite and Drake Maye at +235. There are also interesting prices for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550) and Kenneth Walker III (+600). Everyone else is +2500 and above. The market is basically saying that it is likely to be one of the two starting QBs, though it would be a minor surprise if it’s either one of Seattle’s star wide receivers or running backs. Anyone else would be considered a shock. 

The QB angle is the most consistent narrative. The Seahawks are -245 on the money line, so it’s a significant boost to back Darnold. The Patriots are +200 on the moneyline, so it’s only a short jump to +235 and Maye. Again, this is telling us that the Pats need Maye to be the star of the show to win, whereas the Seahawks have more options. 

Not guaranteed that QB will win MVP

Of course, it does not need to go to the winning QB, and bettors would be foolish to think that a trend equals guarantees. Seven of the last 10 MVPs have gone to QBs, and 14 of the last 20. That 70% can feel like a strong statistic, but you might even look at it another way: a non-QB MVP is statistically overdue. 

There are other ways to look at things, especially going against the market sentiment: Rhamondre Stevenson is a huge price at +2500 to win the MVP. Yes, you will have to go all the way back to 1998 to find the last RB to win a Super Bowl MVP (Terrell Davis), but again, it’s statistically overdue. Running backs were much more commonly given the award in the 1970s and 1980s, and the game has changed since then, but it’s not completely out of the question. 

In the end, the market has to match up with your own strategy and research. To look at it objectively, you can argue that it is a better bet for back Darnold to win the MVP as the value prospect is much better vis-à-vis the odds compared to Maye and the Patriots. Yet, that all depends on your view of the game’s outcome.