The Fish Are Still Fighting? How The Miami Marlins Can Make the MLB Playoffs

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Photo Credits- (1) Miami Marlins – Search / X

If I would have told you before the MLB season that with 6 games left to play the Miami Marlins could still make the playoffs, you would have called my delusional. Well, I’m here to say that I would have been right.

Yet here we are. The Miami Marlins have exceeded all expectations this year under first-year manager Clayton McCullough. Currently sitting at 76-80, they are alive for a winning season and even a playoff spot, having far outperformed their preseason projection of roughly 60 wins.

This season has been full of surprises, from trade speculation surrounding their aces to questions about lineup consistency and McCullough’s leadership. Despite all of that, the Marlins have life. Here is how they could pull off this improbable run.

The Marlins currently hold the tiebreaker over both the Giants and the Reds, who are both ahead of them. Their next three games against the Phillies are absolutely crucial to their slim playoff hopes and could possibly set up a huge weekend finale against the New York Mets at LoanDepot Park. Here is what would need to happen for the Marlins to clinch a spot:

  • Miami must go 5-1 or better in their final six games

  • New York Mets must go 1-5 or worse

  • Cincinnati Reds must go 1-5 or worse

  • Arizona Diamondbacks must go 1-5 or worse

  • St. Louis Cardinals must go 4-2 or worse

  • San Francisco Giants must go 4-2 or worse

Yes, the odds are long. Yes, it may feel impossible. But that is the beauty of baseball. The Marlins are a young, hungry team, and this season has already been nothing short of miraculous. They have proven they can compete with anyone, even amid skepticism and low expectations.

Looking ahead, the future is bright. The free agent market is full of stars, Miami has talent at the major league level and throughout the minor leagues, and this team has shown it has fight. The 2025 season may not end with a playoff berth, but it has laid the groundwork for optimism and excitement heading into next year.

One thing is certain: the fish are still fighting, and they have a huge offseason ahead of them.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Rhyne Howard drains nine threes, tying the single-game record again, leading the Dream over the Sparks

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The Dream, minus All-Star Allisha Gray (knee), completed their miniseries at home (2-0) against the desperate Sparks, overwhelming them by going to the body and with a surplus of threes. Rhyne Howard and Maya Caldwell made up for most of the latter, shooting them up worse than Scarface at his last stand. The win also gave the hosts home-court advantage through the first round of the playoffs.

 

In combat sports, these types of matchups are called tune-ups because eventually one side will take off like a jet next to a dust cropper. In this case, the Dream pulled away in the second half as if they were in another time zone.

 

Nobody needed to wait long for the fireworks. Howard swished five triples on and off the dribble, plus nailed two freebies in the first quarter. Yet the Sparks were still within striking distance because of Dearica Hamby’s paint pressure, and outside shooting from Rickea Jackson and Kelsey Plum.

 

The visitors hung around, but Howard added another pair of 3-pointers and dribbled into the lane for two close-range baskets, lifting her output to a career-high of 29 first-half digits.

 

The Dream led 56-52 at halftime. Despite little separation on the scoreboard, one of the differences was Brittney Griner, standing at 6-foot-9, was a mismatch in the lane, too.

 

Then the game plan shifted as Brionna Jones punctured the heart of the defense four times. The problems were that her teammates went cold, and Atlanta’s defense had lost its teeth going back to the first frame.

 

It took Howard almost seven minutes to drain her first second-half triple as she curled around a dribble handoff at the top of the key, extending the lead to 11. That was also Atlanta’s 11th straight point coming out of a timeout halfway into the third. She buried another pull-up trey as 28 seconds were left in the third quarter.

 

The hosts were never in danger of losing their lead in the fourth, and they held LA to 25% shooting. Howard stayed through most of garbage time, too, looking for the 3-point record (10) but finished after 37 minutes.

 

The Dream won 104-85. They also outscored the Sparks by 26 off the bench. It was Howard’s second time logging nine 3-pointers this season, the current record for most made in a game, and her first was on June 13. The other players to share this record are Kelsey Mitchell (Sept. 9, 2019, Jewell Loyd (July 11, 2023) and Arike Ogunbowale (Sept. 1, 2024).

 

Miami Marlins Trade Deadline Outlook

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We are just under 24 hours away from the 2025 MLB trade deadline and the Marlins are in prime position to accelerate their World Series window. The Marlins sit at 52-55 (after winning their 5th series in a row for the first time since 2017) and are 7.0 games back from the Wild Card. Not in a position to buy, but rather a soft sell, one where they maintain their quality talent, bright future, and add guys that can help win in the next few years. So here are the players to watch as the deadline approaches, and my predictions of where they will land.

  • On Tuesday the Marlins sent catcher Nick Fortes to the Tampa Bay Rays, in return for outfielder prospect Matthew Etzel. Etzel was ranked as the Rays’ No. 28 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline.

Anthony Bender

In a good way for the Marlins the relief pitcher market has been hot, seeing the Mets take two relievers in Tyler Rogers and Ryan Hesley, the Phillies snagging Jhoan Duran and many other moves. For the Marlins Bender should begin to get some interest as it has been reported that the Padres had interest before these moves. With the market for relievers heating up and many World Series hopeful teams in need of back of the line bullpen help, Bender seems like a perfect option. His return could be good for the Marlins as he is under team control until 2027. Bender is having a career year with a 1.83 ERA, a .097 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts over 44.1 innings.

  • Prediction, Blue Jays. The Jays have taken control of the AL East and need pitching help, both starting and relieving.

Edward Cabrera

Edward Cabrera is insanely talented, and when he is healthy, he’s a top pitcher in this league, unfortunately his health is shaky, and it may be in the Marlins best interest to move him at his highest value. The 27-year-old is having a good season, holding a 3.35 ERA and 96 strikeouts. Cabrera has three more years of team control, meaning the Marlins would need a haul in return, but many teams need a starting pitcher for their playoff push, especially with injuries piling up.

  • Prediction Tigers, need a 2 next to Skubal, have the talent to get a deal done.

Sandy Alcantara

Sandy Alcantara is one of the best pitchers in franchise history and has been struggling mightily since his return from Tommy John surgery. But his last two starts are promising in hopes that he can be moved at this deadline at his value of a Cy Young level pitcher.

Sandy Alcantara‘s last two starts:

7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K

5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K

If this is Sandy’s last pitch as a Marlin, no better way to go out. Bases loaded, big spot, and gets the strikeout to leave the runners stranded.

  • Prediction, I expect the Marlins to be quite firm on their stance with Sandy. He’s one of the franchise’s best arms; he is returning to form and is under team control until 2027 with a club option for 2028. A pitcher of Sandy’s caliber doesn’t get traded for nothing, especially as he returns to form. I predict Sandy to the Cubs who are in dire need of rotational help (trading for Soroka does not change my stance).

Cal Quantrill

The most obvious option here is Cal Quantrill who is overlooked as the Marlins have two major pitchers on the market. That being said moving Quantrill would be smart as he is the Marlins only expiring contract.

Cal Quantrill last 3 starts: 16 IP 8 H 1 ER 10 KS

  • Prediction, I’m not too sure on Quantrill’s market, but I am going to throw the Padres out there.

Jesus Sanchez

Last but not least, Jesus Sanchez. An above average outfielder who has power potential from the left side and can play the field at a good level. The 27-year-old outfielder has two more years of arbitration before hitting free agency and can help a team that needs a spark in the middle of their lineup.

  • Prediction, the Houston Astros. The Astros need some offense as it’s been their pitching propelling them back to the top of the American league. The Astros are dealing with a mountain of injuries that can’t go without notice, yet they continue to win ball games. Adding a bat and getting healthy will be crucial for their World Series dreams.

Final Outlook

The Marlins are in a good spot with a lot of talent blooming. Stowers, Eury, Henriquez, Ramirez, Junk, Edwards and many more. The farm is deep and there is also a lot of young talent who hasn’t seen the field due to injury. Peter Bendix has things figured out in South Florida, and a World Series window can be opened as long as they hit this deadline out of the park. The Marlins have the control in this sweepstakes as their guys are under team control, hold firm on your stance and let the World Series hopefuls make their desperate offers.

Junk has been showing his stuff for the Marlins

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CINCINNATI, Ohio – Over 20,000 people have played in a Major League Baseball game. Every single one of their journeys is different, and Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk’s is no exception. 

 

From Federal Way, Washington, and a former Seattle University player, Junk was drafted by the Yankees in the 22nd round of the 2017 MLB Draft–a round that no longer exists. It was the first step that shaped an underdog journey for Junk

 

“I’ve always had something to prove,” Junk told 5RSN. “I’m thankful the Yankees took me because they did teach me a lot.”

 

There’s a lot of growth that comes with jumping from the amateurs to the professional level, and Junk says the Yankees taught him a lot on how to evaluate himself from an analytical standpoint.

 

“College was more motivational, building that competitive nature. When I got to the bigs, analytics were getting really big, so it was good to see that my stuff was actually good.”

 

The first time Junk had to face adversity in his professional career was during the COVID-19 pandemic, when Minor League Baseball canceled its season. Teams began setting up alternate sites near their ballpark, where top prospects and other minor leaguers could stay fresh and be ready in case of a COVID-19 breakout amongst the big league team. Junk wasn’t invited, so he stayed back with his trainer, Kyle Rogers, in Washington to stay ready for the 2021 season.

 

Once 2021 rolled around and Minor League Baseball returned, Junk made his largest stride to that point with the help of an influential coach. “Daniel Vazquez was my pitching coach in AA at the beginning of the year; he’s one of the most influential, smart, relatable, good humans,” Junk said. “He’s just fun to be around and have as your pitching coach, and he helped me along the way that year, and luckily I had probably my best year.”

 

Junk pitched well enough that the Los Angeles Angels made sure he was in the trade package for Andrew Heaney, as Junk moved organizations for the first time in his career. After one month at AA-Rocket City, the day had finally come–Junk was a Major Leaguer. On September 3rd, 2021, Junk got the call. However, it wouldn’t last long, as Junk was optioned to AAA-Salt Lake City just mere weeks later. It was the start of a series of options back and forth between AAA and MLB, as Junk would be sent between the two levels a grand total of five times between 2021 and 2022.

 

“It was naive thinking that once you get there, you’re gonna stay there forever. It’s a typical saying that it’s easy to get there but harder to stay,” Junk said. “I had a lot of pressure in moments where I thought if I don’t perform well, I’m gonna get sent back down, then it’s like, what more can I do?”

 

After a year and a half in the Angels’ organization, Junk was traded to Milwaukee in October 2022 as part of a package for Hunter Renfroe. 2023 was more of the same for Junk, getting sent between AAA and Milwaukee, but 2024 presented a new challenge–getting moved to the bullpen.

 

“I enjoyed my time in Milwaukee; they were good to me, but I felt like I never got a good opportunity to show myself before I got moved to the bullpen,” Junk said.

 

After burning through all of Junk’s minor league options, the Brewers designated him for assignment right before the 2024 trade deadline. This would be a series of DFAs for Junk, which he called the roughest two months of his career. 

 

Now, in 2025, it seems like Junk has finally found stability with the Marlins. After moving from the bullpen back into a starting role, he leads the team in pitching WAR and is on the heels of back-to-back dominating outings, allowing two or fewer earned runs. 

 

There’s been a variety of reasons why Junk’s been able to have success with the Marlins, but his living situation is the most ideal it’s been since entering the big leagues.

 

“I really value my personal space and having my own space off the field…I have my wife (in Miami) living with me, which is our first year doing that, so it’s been a pleasure to have her support,” Junk said.

 

The new-era Marlins have caught the league’s attention over the past couple of weeks, having sported a 19-11 record over their last 30 games entering Wednesday’s contest. The new winning culture that’s been brought into the clubhouse has affected Junk in a positive manner, to no one’s surprise.

 

“It’s a great group of young, hungry guys that just mesh really well from position players, to the bullpen, to the coaching staff, it all just intertwines so well,” Junk said.

 

Junk’s 2025 season has been nothing short of impressive, as he sports a 3.12 ERA and 2.00 FIP between five bullpen appearances and four starts since his callup in May. With the Marlins surprisingly finding themselves in the mix for a Wild Card spot in July, Junk will be looked upon to lead the way for this rotation.

Sandy Alcantara Is Heating Up — Just in Time for the Trade Deadline

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Sandy Alcantara Is Heating Up — Just in Time for the Trade Deadline

Sandy Alcantara opened the 2025 season in a troubling slump, looking like a shadow of the Cy Young winner he once was. At one point, his ERA sat above 6.00, and the elite command and velocity that once defined his game had all but vanished. I dove into those early-season struggles in this in-depth analysis, breaking down the mechanical and approach-related issues that led to his rocky start.

I wrote an article breaking down what was wrong with him earlier in the season that you can read here.

But now? Sandy is back.

Over his last four starts — against playoff-caliber teams like the Braves and Phillies, as well as the Rockies and Pirates — Alcantara has posted a 2.74 ERA in 23 innings. He’s regained his feel for the strike zone, cut down on walks, and looked far more in control of the game. His fastball velocity has ticked back up, and he’s doing damage with his changeup again. Since June 1, he’s shaved two full runs off his ERA, reminding everyone why he was once among the best pitchers in the sport.

Perfect Timing — for Both Sandy and the Marlins

The timing couldn’t be better. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Marlins are expected to field offers for Alcantara ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. And they’re not desperate sellers: if a team doesn’t meet their asking price, Miami is prepared to hold firm. With Sandy under contract through next season and a team option for 2027, they’re in a position of leverage.

That means no rental discount. Any team acquiring him is getting a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter — not just for the stretch run, but potentially for multiple seasons.

Who’s Calling?

There’s a real market for pitching this year, and Alcantara could sit atop it. The contenders who fit the mold — teams that need an arm and have the prospect capital to make a deal — include:

  • Blue Jays: In need of rotation stability and under pressure to make a playoff push (4.22 team ERA 23rd in baseball).

    • Martinez, 2B/3B

    • Trey Yesavage, RHP

    • Jake Bloss, RHP

    Cubs: Looking for another frontline starter to pair with Shota Imanaga and after Justin Steele’s injury.

    • Matt Shaw, INF (MLB No. 25)

    • Cade Horton, RHP (MLB No. 31)

    • Owen Caissie, OF (MLB No. 36)

    Dodgers: Always in the mix for elite talent, and their depth at the upper minors makes them a top candidate.

    • Dalton Rushing, C/OF (MLB No. 39)

    • Josue De Paula, OF (MLB No. 49)

    • River Ryan, RHP (MLB No. 65)

    Padres: They’ve been aggressive before and have been scouting pitching closely.

    • Ethan Salas, C (MLB No. 20)

    • Leodalis De Vries, SS (MLB No. 47)

    • Kash Mayfield, LHP

    Red Sox: Clinging to Wild Card relevance, but with enough top-end talent to swing a deal (best farm on this list).

    • Marcelo Mayer, SS (MLB No. 5)

    • Roman Anthony, OF (MLB No. 14)

    • Kyle Teel, C (MLB No. 27)

    Astros: Add a veteran Cy Young to Christian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Framber Valdez as they push to return to glory.

    • Jacob Melton, OF

    • Walker Janek, C

    • Brice Matthews, SS/3B

    Mets (My Favorite): They have the resources and a front office that’s shown it can pivot quickly, especially with recent injury to Griffin Canning.

    • Brandon Sproat, RHP (MLB No. 40)

    • Jett Williams, SS/OF (MLB No. 57)

    • Drew Gilbert, OF (MLB No. 82)

    Rays?!?: This is the best Rays team in a long time, and we know the depth of their farm. With Taj Bradley’s inconsistency and uncertainty surrounding Shane McClanahan, do the Rays try and make a run with the depth of their farm?

    • Carson Williams, SS (MLB No. 6)

    • Xavier Isaac, 1B (MLB No. 21)

Some have floated the Orioles as a possibility, but they simply aren’t playing competitive enough baseball right now to justify giving up key pieces of their farm system. If Miami holds until the winter, that door may open, but for now, Baltimore likely sits this one out.

For prospect rankings and scouting reports, A deep dive into each team’s updated Top 30 Prospects list

Analysis:

The Mets and Dodgers seem like the most aggressive fits due to their resources and recent trade tendencies, with the Cubs and Padres close behind if they prioritize a postseason push. The Rays are a wild card, but their conservative approach might keep them on the sidelines. Miami’s decision to trade Alcantara now or wait until the winter will hinge on the quality of prospect packages offered, with teams like the Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers likely able to meet their high asking price. No clear favorite has emerged, but the Mets’ urgency and prospect depth make them a slight frontrunner in my eyes.

Important to note the Marlins need to try and get three or more high end prospects in a deal for Alcantara. 

Every Start Matters Now

The Marlins will be closely monitoring every inning Alcantara throws from now through July. His next outing — Saturday, June 28, against Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks — will be another key data point. With many expected to be paying close attention and trade talks heating up, each pitch carries real weight.

The better Sandy pitches, the more Miami can ask for. And if he keeps this up, he won’t just be a trade chip — he might be the pitcher that shapes the playoff race.

 

Who Will Represent the Marlins at the 2025 MLB All-Star Game?

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Who Will Represent the Marlins at the 2025 MLB All-Star Game?

We’re just under a month away from the 2025 MLB All-Star Game (July 15), and unfortunately, the Marlins aren’t getting much love in fan voting. Not a single Marlin currently ranks in the top 10 at any position. Miami enters today 13 games under .500, remains one of the youngest rosters in baseball, and ranks near the bottom in attendance. But despite the struggles, a few young standouts have made a strong case for All-Star recognition—if only the process wasn’t driven so heavily by fan votes.

Reminder: Every MLB team must have at least one All-Star representative. Rosters will be filled out after fan voting concludes.
All-Star FAQ: How players are selected

Dane Myers – OF

Myers has quietly put together a breakout campaign and should be the leading candidate to represent the Marlins. A true five-tool player, he’s showing off elite defense, solid power, and speed. Myers has swiped eight bags and owns a 136 OPS+ (league average is 100). He ranks in the top 70th percentile in defensive run value and has tallied a team-leading 1.4 WAR—even while bouncing in and out of the lineup.

If he qualified, Myers would rank:

  • 6th among NL outfielders in OPS

  • 1st in batting average

  • 3rd in on-base percentage

If he keeps it up through early July, Myers should be Miami’s All-Star.

(1) MLB on X: “This is an absolutely ridiculous catch by Dane Myers 😳 https://t.co/yvN4Hk0HQq” / X

(1) MLB on X: “Dane Myers put his body on the line to rob Jung Hoo Lee of extra bases 👀 https://t.co/ij5HikLIoF” / X

Kyle Stowers – OF

Stowers has arguably been the Marlins’ most consistent hitter this season. He leads the team in home runs (10), RBIs (34), and triples (3), while posting a strong .803 OPS—top 10 among National League outfielders. His season has had ups and downs (including a walk-off grand slam and a few three-strikeout games), but he’s been a steady presence in the lineup.

If Myers cools off, Stowers might get the nod.

(1) MLB on X: “101.7 MPH coming in 🔥 107.2 MPH coming out 💥 Kyle Stowers CLOBBERS a walk-off grand slam against Mason Miller 🤯 https://t.co/ruddk8jMIS” / X

Anthony Bender – RP

Sometimes the All-Star rep comes from the bullpen, and Bender fits that mold perfectly. With a 2.45 ERA and only nine runs allowed over nearly 30 innings, Bender has quietly become one of the most reliable Marlins. His breaking ball is elite, with an 8-run value on Statcast. While he may not be a household name, he’s certainly earned consideration—and could be trade bait for a contender in July.

(1) Jeremiah Geiger on X: “Anthony Bender Frisbee sweeper https://t.co/JF182Go0bZ” / X

Heriberto Hernandez – DH/OF

Hernandez has been electric in limited action. Acquired after the Rays released him this winter, he’s slashing .353/.405/.500 with a 148 OPS+. The sample size is small, but his impact has been big. If he keeps hitting and stays in the lineup through June, Hernandez could be a dark horse All-Star—and a fan favorite for years to come.
Check out Heriberto’s Baseball Savant Page.

(1) MLB on X: “Heriberto Hernandez clubs his first Major League home run for the @Marlins! https://t.co/CoS35ezEHW” / X

Final Take

The Marlins are guaranteed at least one All-Star, and while Myers is the best story so far, Stowers and Bender are right behind him. Hernandez is one to watch. Either way, these players represent hope for the franchise’s future—whether they stay to build it or are moved at the deadline.

And don’t forget—vote for your favorite Marlins before Phase 1 closes!

Marlins Drop Fourth Straight Series After Tight Set with Rays

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TAMPA, Fla. — The Miami Marlins dropped two out of three games to their in-state rival, the Tampa Bay Rays, this past weekend. With this series loss, the Marlins have now lost four consecutive series. Despite showing occasional signs of life—especially in their Game 2 win—the team continues to struggle with putting together complete performances. From a wild extra-inning thriller to an unfortunate warmup accident (game 2), here’s a look back at a weekend of highs and lows for the Marlins.

Game 1: Friday, June 6 Final: Rays 4, Marlins 3

A slow start and a controversial call cost the Marlins in the series opener. Edward Cabrera allowed three runs—only one earned—over four innings, and the Rays never surrendered their early lead. The game turned contentious in the fourth when a controversial interference call nullified a Marlins run and led to manager Clayton McCullough’s first ejection. Offensively, Augustin Ramirez hit his eighth home run of the season, and the team rallied for two late runs in the eighth off a Javier Sanoja double and an Otto Lopez homer. Pete Fairbanks shut the door in the ninth for the Rays.

W: Zach Littell (6-5) | L: Edward Cabrera (2-2) | S: Pete Fairbanks (12)

Game 2: Saturday, June 7 Final: Marlins 11, Rays 10 (10 innings)

Game 2 was an offensive rollercoaster. The Marlins responded to each Rays rally with one of their own, including a six-run fifth inning that flipped the game. Jesus Sanchez led the way with five RBIs, and five Marlins posted multi-hit games (Norby, Edwards, Sanchez, Fortes, and Myers). After the bullpen surrendered a late lead, Heriberto Hernandez singled home the winning run in the tenth. Cade Gibson secured his first win of the season.

(2) Codify on X: “The Marlins have allowed 94 stolen bases this year. https://t.co/7Bm0wsUMHf” / X

W: Cade Gibson (1-3) | L: Garrett Cleavinger (0-2)

Game 3: Sunday, June 8 Final: Rays 3, Marlins 2

In the rubber match, the Marlins’ pitching was solid, limiting the Rays to just six hits. Valente Bellozo was effective, but the offense couldn’t support him. Heriberto Hernandez went 3-for-3 and scored on a Jesus Sanchez single, but that was all the scoring Miami could manage. Yandy Diaz (3-for-4, 2 RBIs) was the difference for the Rays, setting up the go-ahead run in the eighth.

W: Edwin Uceta (5-1) | L: Valente Bellozo (1-3)

Looking Ahead: The Marlins now travel to Pittsburgh for a three-game set with the Pirates. The series will mark the long-awaited return of Eury Perez, who will make his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. With the All-Star break and trade deadline approaching, Miami’s focus will likely shift toward building value in potential trade pieces and finding any consistency to spark a turnaround.

What’s Wrong with Sandy Alcantara? A Deep Dive into His 2025 Struggles

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What’s Wrong with Sandy Alcantara? A Deep Dive into His 2025 Struggles

Just two years removed from a Cy Young Award, Sandy Alcantara now finds himself mired in one of the worst stretches of his career. The 6-foot-5 Marlins ace, once revered for his dominance, durability, and pinpoint command, has opened the 2025 season with a 2–3 record, an alarming 8.31 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19) over 26 innings. For a pitcher who once threw 228.2 innings with a 2.28 ERA in 2022, the drop-off has been nothing short of staggering. So, what’s behind the rapid unraveling? Let’s dig in.

Statistical data found via BaseballSavant

⚾️ What’s Going Wrong with Sandy Alcantara?

1. Command Is Collapsing

The most glaring issue? Alcantara’s walk rate has ballooned to 14.2%, placing him in the 11th percentile league-wide. This isn’t just bad—it’s among the worst in baseball. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has cratered from 4.1 in 2022 to 1.1 in 2025, suggesting a pitcher not just nibbling, but losing control altogether. He’s falling behind in counts and often having to groove pitches, leading to barrels and crooked numbers.

Something to ask about his lack of command is his lowered arm slot, it is down to 31 degrees, three degrees less than that of 2022 and 2023.

2. Velocity Holding, But Command Diminishes Its Value

While Alcantara’s average fastball velocity remains strong at 97.0 mph (89th percentile), it isn’t nearly as effective when hitters know it’s coming. His fastball run value is -2, and batters have a .419 xwOBA against it.

The four-seamer’s whiff rate has dropped from 24.2% in 2022 to just 11.1% in 2025, and its xSLG has ballooned to .602, a sign that it’s no longer missing barrels. Velocity isn’t enough—command and deception are missing.

3. Sinker & Changeup Aren’t Getting Results

In 2022, Alcantara’s sinker and changeup formed one of the most devastating ground-ball inducing combos in baseball. This year, the results are dramatically worse, despite similar usage and velocity.

Pitch Comparison – 2022 vs 2025

Pitch Year AVG SLG wOBA Whiff% Put Away% Run Value
Sinker 2022 .264 .342 .299 11.1% 15.7% +9
2025 .333 .500 .415 10.5% 6.3% -1
Changeup 2022 .146 .195 .170 34.6% 27.1% +27
2025 .207 .310 .269 37.9% 10.3% -0

Both pitches have lost vertical separation, are missing fewer bats, and are getting hit harder—especially the sinker. Even the changeup, once a wipeout pitch, has lost effectiveness across every category. Ground balls aren’t saving him either as he’s constantly getting barreled.

4. Predictability in Pitch Mix

Alcantara continues to lean heavily on a familiar trio: changeup (27%), sinker (26%), and four-seam fastball (20%). While that worked in 2022, the predictable sequencing has caught up with him. Hitters are sitting on the sinker or change, knowing they’ll likely see one early in the count.

His slider and curveball remain underused—despite the slider generating a 39.3% whiff rate this year. Except when the slider gets hit, it gets hit quite hard with an xSLG of .877.

The curveball, while used just 10.8% of the time, has a microscopic .195 xwOBA against it and 28.6% whiff rate, suggesting it’s an untapped weapon in his arsenal. In 2022, Alcantara’s offspeed pitches had elite run value—this year, they’re just average.

5. Underlying Metrics Confirm the Struggles

Statcast paints a grim picture in 2025—and the percentile rankings only emphasize how far he’s fallen from his Cy Young peak.

Metric 2022 2025 2025 Percentile
xERA 2.90 6.39 8th percentile
Hard-Hit Rate 38.5% 46.4% 23rd percentile
Barrel % 5.3% 10.7% 17th percentile
Avg Exit Velocity 87.8 mph 91.0 mph 28th percentile
Whiff % 25.6% 25.1% 50th percentile
K% 23.4% 15.7% 20th percentile

His chase rate is down to just 24.1% (23rd percentile), indicating hitters aren’t being fooled by pitches out of the zone.

These indicators paint a picture of a pitcher who’s no longer fooling hitters, missing barrels, or winning counts—and opponents are punishing everything in the zone.

The 46.3 swing percentage also shows more patience from the hitters he is facing.

Can He Turn It Around?

Sandy Alcantara is still only 29, and his raw stuff hasn’t disappeared. But between shaky command, predictable sequencing, and ineffective secondaries, he looks lost on the mound. The Marlins’ defense and lack of run support only magnify the problem. To turn things around, Sandy needs to:

  • Regain feel for the strike zone

  • Introduce sharper breaking pitches into his game plan

  • Vary his sequencing and approach to hitters

The tools are still there, but the margin for error is gone—and unless something changes quickly, his season could spiral even further from his Cy Young form.

What Does This Mean for His Future?

Sandy and all Marlins stars will always be the center of trade talks, but these performances aren’t doing anything to bolster his value, if anything it is being diminished. This could be seen as a win for the Marlins as they can maybe keep Sandy with their young bolstering core, but regardless Sandy must improve.

Twice this season, Alcantara has allowed at least six runs in three or fewer innings—an alarming stat for a pitcher who once prided himself on being the rock of the rotation. After Tuesday’s latest meltdown, he didn’t mince words.

“I feel good physically, but I feel terrible just being out there and having the same result and I can’t do nothing when my teammates need me the most,” Alcantara told MLB.com. “I know this is a process, but I’m tired. I’m tired of having the same success out there, and I don’t feel happy about it.”

The quote was telling—not just because of the frustration, but because Alcantara described his performance as “success,” likely a translation slip that just shows how disoriented and defeated he feels mentally. Just two years removed from being the league’s most dependable workhorse, he now finds himself at a crossroads.

Sandy is coming off tommy john and that is not an easy journey, yet he has still underperformed.

The Marlins entered the year unsure whether to hold or shop the 29-year-old righty, who is under contract for $17.3 million in both 2025 and 2026, with a $21 million team option for 2027. But at this rate, his trade value is at a low point, and a move seems unlikely unless he rebounds.

Manager Clayton McCullough offered support, but also an honest assessment:

“We just have to kind of go back to work there and try to figure that out. It’s so uncharacteristic for him… It was really a struggle from the first inning tonight, just never really could catch a rhythm and get settled in,” McCullough said. “Some pitches that were kind of more heart of the plate, they put some good swings on. But I think for me, it’s just as much trying to get back to commanding and executing pitches at the rate that we’re all accustomed to.”

“We’ll put our heads together with him and just see what we think is the next best step to try to right the ship a little bit. We certainly all know there’s a much better version there.”

That better version feels distant right now. But if Alcantara can rediscover his command and adjust his pitch usage, a turnaround isn’t out of the question. The tools, velocity, and track record all suggest the potential remains.

Whether that version resurfaces this season or not could determine not only the fate of the Marlins, but Alcantara’s standing among the game’s elite.

 

Early on, Surprising Marlins are Passing Some Tests

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The Miami Marlins are supposed to be bad. Not just bad, but the Miami Marlins are supposed to be historically bad. So bad, in fact, that the mere fact that they are .500 in their first 12 games of the season can be seen as something of a small miracle.

After losing 100 games last season, the Marlins lost three crucial contributors over the offseason. Two coming via trade in the form of star lefty Jesus Luzardo, and the 2024 home run leader in Jake Burger, and one via injury being steady left handed starter Braxton Garrett. The team hadn’t done much in the way of adding pieces to replace these players, either, as the Marlins spent no money on MLB free agents over the course of the offseason, instead opting until the Spring to agree to terms with free agent pitcher Cal Quantrill on a one year, $3.5M deal. To make matters even worse, the Marlins then lost five players thought to be crucial pieces of the MLB roster in the last week and a half of Spring Training such as starters Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, reliever Andrew Nardi, Third Baseman Connor Norby, and Right Fielder Jesus Sanchez, all suffered injuries resulting in them starting the season on the injured list.

The stage was set for the team to roll over and die. After all, the 2024 squad, which was undoubtedly more impressive on paper on opening day last season, started by losing nine of their first ten contests, ultimately resigning the team to a season that would see them hit the reset button once more with a fire sale that would linger into the following offseason.

Through 2025’s first dozen, however, it’s been a bit of a different story for this year’s team. The Marlins are far, far, far from contenders for a playoff spot still in anyone’s mind, but, a 6-6 start is cause for a slight eyebrow raise, especially considering the players that are still on the shelf for Miami early on this season.

The stats don’t jump off the page necessarily, but the pitching staff has been at the heart of the early season perseverance for the fish, with the starters posting a steady 3.72  ERA through the first ten and the relievers just slightly better with a 3.63 ERA early on themselves. There have been outlier performances, though.

If one removes just one blow up outing by Cal Quantrill versus the Mets that saw the veteran surrender eight runs over four frames, that ERA for the starters dips to 2.44, which would be the second best mark in all of baseball. The same can also be said for the bullpen, with Luarbert Arias giving up five in just one third of an inning of work last Friday in Atlanta. If one were to remove that appearance off the ledger, the bullpen ERA would sink to 2.64, which would be number four in baseball. There are still a ways to go before the staff receives their much needed reinforcements, but it’s been players like Connor Gillispie, Valente Bellozo, and Max Meyer who have provided Sandy Alcantara with crucial support in the rotation, as well as Ronny Henriquez, Anthony Veneziano, Tyler Phillips, Anthony Bender and Lake Bachar out of the bullpen who have helped to hold down the fort for the Fish. At the plate, it’s been a bit more of a struggle for the Marlins, as many would have expected to start the season, however, it hasn’t all been without positives.

The outfield, which had been panned by many, myself included, has largely been the most consistent source of production to this point in the Marlins lineup. Dane Myers, Derek Hill, Griffin Conine and Kyle Stowers have combined for a modest, yet much needed .718 OPS through ten games for the club, mix this with hot starts from second baseman Otto Lopez (though he has cooled significantly of late) and Catcher Nick Fortes, and the Marlins have been able to cobble together just enough offense despite slow starts from the likes of Jonah Bride and Xavier Edwards, along with the absences of Connor Norby and Jesus Sanchez.

The schedule for the Marlins to this point, hasn’t necessarily been a cake walk, either. Sure, the Pirates aren’t likely to be postseason contenders, but those are series’ the Marlins will have to win if they intend to keep their head above water through April, and largely treading water versus two of the better teams in the National League in the Mets and the Braves can at least keep Miami from falling too far behind in the standings before receiving much needed help in the coming weeks. The test is far from over for the Marlins, as they will have to continue on without the aforementioned injured players for at least a little while longer with three of the next four series being intra-divisional matchups versus NL East foes, but so far, the Marlins are surviving, and that alone, under these circumstances, for this team, is commendable on its own. 

 

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Baseball writes its own stories

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Unlike other sports, baseball writes its own stories.

Of course, Griffin Conine was going to tie the game 2-2 with a solo home run on the day his father Jeff “Mr. Marlin” Conine was inducted as the first member of the Marlins Hall of Fame.

Of course, the Miami Marlins were going to win their third game of the season on a walk-off, just as they did the previous two games.

“How cool is baseball? Griffin Conine, on this day, hitting that home run. Sometimes things happen that just feel special,” Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said. “So really cool moment for him today. That was awesome.”

With their 3-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, the Marlins became the first MLB team since the 2003 Tampa Bay Devil Rays to win its first three games of a season in walk-off fashion. However, in the case of Derek Hill, it was more of a run-off.

Hill led off the ninth inning and reached base on a single thanks to a throw past the first baseman. Another errand throw toward second base that went to the outfield allowed Hill to not only steal second base but also advance to third. Hill then scored the winning run on a wild pitch to secure the Marlins’ third walk-off win of the season.

Jeff Conine was honored as the first member of the inaugural Marlins Hall of Fame class for being the only member of the inaugural 1993 season and both World Series teams of 1997 and 2003. He is also the franchise’s only All-Star MVP, earning that honor in 1995.

Both World Series-winning managers and second baseman Luis Castillo, who spent 10 years with the Marlins and won two championships, will also be honored later this season.

It was only fitting for Conine to see his son rob a home run on Saturday and hit a home run on Sunday.

“The whole thing’s surreal to me,” Conine told MLB.com. “I’m not one to really like attention so much, but today’s all about me, and it’s almost uncomfortable, but that’s a cherry on top. Outside of the World Series or playoffs, it doesn’t get any better than this. It really doesn’t.”

On a team full of scrappy outcasts, brought to Miami by way of waiver claims and minor league trades, Griffin Conine stands out as the household name. The Marlins quietly acquired him in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays two years after being drafted out of Duke in 2018.

He has always shown promise as a power-hitting outfield prospect, especially when he slugged 36 home runs and 84 RBIs in 108 games between single-A and double-A in 2021. He made his MLB debut on Aug. 26, 2024, and became a second-generation Marlin. He changed his jersey number to 18 this season to honor his father and is living up to the Conine name with his performance this past weekend.

“From the ceremony itself and then getting to come up in a big spot and do it, and then us finishing with a win — our third walk-off win in four days — it’s awesome,” Griffin Conine said. “We’re in a great spot to start the year.”