Tyreek Hill said after dropping some passes in win against the 49ers that he needs more practice time with Tua Tagovailoa.

Pressure Point: Miami Dolphins’ playoff hopes hang by a thread, future foggy

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Despite all of their shortcomings and all of the ways they have disappointed this season, the Miami Dolphins are alive and kicking entering the final two weeks of the season.

Thank the kicking of Jason Sanders for providing most of the points they needed Sunday to dispatch the San Francisco 49ers, whose disappointing season ran out of hope prior to kickoff after results from early games sealed their fate.

Sanders, the special teams player of the month in November, continued to swing a hot foot, so to speak, with five field goals in five tries, including long-range strikes of 54 and 48 yards, in a 29-17 win at Hard Rock Stadium. He set a Dolphins record with 23 consecutive field goals made.

The Dolphins got an interception by Kader Kohou and a 50-yard touchdown run by De’Von Achane in the final two minutes to send their fans off with holiday cheer in the home finale.

Their own reward is two trips to cold climes for games they can’t afford to lose, an assignment Dolphins teams have made a habit of failing repeatedly at this time of year. This time they get to try to change that behavior against opponents that are a combined 7-23 — the 3-12 Browns at Cleveland and the 4-11 Jets at the Meadowlands.

Dolphins set to chill vs. Browns, Jets

They need to bag those two lame ducks and have some teams ahead of them in the playoff pecking order stumble to earn what would likely be another trip to some gawdforsaken frigid place like Buffalo or Kansas City.

Which happen to be the places their past two seasons, respectively, ended in one-and-done playoff demise.

In other words, the 7-8 Dolphins are treading in familiar perilous territory. It feels as if they are vying for a consolation prize that keeps coming to them like an unwanted grab-bag gift.

More of a curse than an accomplishment, in light of their history this century. Since their last playoff win in the 2000 season, the Dolphins have made the playoffs five times. They rapidly exited by a combined score of 137-62, only once keeping the final margin of defeat under double digits.

Still, the Dolphins go into the final two weeks with a chance for their third consecutive playoff appearance, which the franchise hasn’t achieved since a five-year postseason run from 1998-2001.

That would provide some consolation to an otherwise forgettable season, considering their 2-6 start and four-game injury absence of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Dolphins playoff probability at 8 percent

But snagging the final AFC wild card remains very much a long shot, Miami’s current playoff probability at 8 percent. That is the cost of a dreadful start to the season.

And here’s the kicker that even Jason Sanders can’t affect from long range: The Dolphins could be dealt out of the picture before they kick off Sunday, 4:05 p.m. at Cleveland.

Miami needs losses on Saturday by the Chargers (at New England) and Broncos (at Cincinnati), and for both to lose again in the final week.

In addition, the Colts must lose to at least one of two remaining weak sisters on their schedule — at the Giants (1 p.m., Sunday) or at home vs. the Jaguars.

The Dolphins’ win against the 49ers and coach Mike McDaniel’s former mentor Kyle Shanahan lacked the luster that would have been envisioned upon first glace at the schedule.

The 49ers who showed up Sunday with a 6-8 record were greatly diminished from the team that lost to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl in February, due to numerous injuries and all-around poor play.

Their performance Sunday, beset with mistakes and penalties, resembled some of the Dolphins’ frustrating efforts this season. They committed 11 penalties and missed a short field goal.

Dolphins best downtrodden 49ers

Still, the Niners were at midfield and driving toward a would-be winning touchdown until Calais Campbell got in Brock Purdy’s face and forced an errant pass that Kodou picked off.

This was the sort of game the Dolphins have made a habit of winning. They are now 24-9 against below-.500 opponents in McDaniel’s three seasons at the helm.

Their 3-13 mark against teams above .500 under McDaniel is the basis for ongoing exasperation within the fan base and uncertainty about the future of this Dolphins regime.

That has been elevated by going 0-5 in such games this season. (The now 9-6 Rams were 4-4 when the Dolphins beat them at LA for their best win of the season).

This win wouldn’t have maintained such suspense if Tyreek Hill, who caught one touchdown from Tagovailoa, hadn’t let two others slip through his hands in the end zone (one of them tipped at the last moment by a defender).

Afterward, Hill offered a curious observation about what has been an odd season for the eight-time Pro Bowl wide receiver, suggesting that perhaps he took too many veteran rest days from Wednesday practices.

“As a leader, in those moments, I feel like at the end of the day, I need those valuable reps with Tua. Those vet rest days are starting to show,” he said.

Tyreek Hill struggles with injury, karma

This Dolphins season began with strange karma from Hill’s run-in with police while driving to the opener. He has been hampered by a wrist injury that may need surgery. Now running mate Jaylen Waddle is sidelined with a knee injury.

“It’s the NFL. It’s not easy,” Hill said. “I know in the past I’ve made it look easy, but this year it’s kind of tough, but it is what it is, man. I’m human. I’ll bounce back.”

The Dolphins have bounced back with wins in five of their past seven games. They finished 5-3 at home.

They finally got their dormant rushing attack going with 166 yards (5.5 yards a carry), including 120 by Achane, against McDaniel’s former boss — Miami had been averaging 60 yards on the ground since midseason.

So now, as they say, it’s onward to Cleveland.

Wait, nobody says that. But that’s where this latest wayward Dolphins season stands, facing a cold day in Cleveland.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for more than four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The Heat was outmatched by the Thunder, 104-97

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plus Jalen Williams took over on offense, and Isaiah Hartenstein was the most dominant big man on the floor, leading the Thunder to a dub at Kaseya Center.

 

In the first quarter, the Heat’s long-range bombs were missing, save for two, but Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo carried the offense with fastbreak scores and half-court paint attacks. The Thunder raised the intensity by 60° on defense, forcing three host turnovers that stalled the offense midway through the period. Butler twisted his left ankle, got checked out, but didn’t return because he was also bothered by an illness. The Sun Sentinel’s Ira Winderman reported that he asked trainer Armando Rivas for something before rolling his ankle.

 

For the Thunder, SGA made two jumpers on the dribble at long and mid-range, plus made a second-chance layup on his miss. His co-star, Williams, added a 3-pointer and ripped through the middle for a layup. The rest of the Thunder were still rolling, making six of 11 baskets.

 

Through 12 minutes, the Heat was down 25-30

 

Next, Nikola Jović was summoned, contributing seven points. Herro broke into the heart of OKC’s defense for two layups. And Terry Rozier blew past Williams for a scoop and nailed a 3-pointer.

 

Defensively, the crew made a stand, holding the visitors to 38% shooting in the second quarter. They also stayed in the 2-3 zone longer than usual, likely because of Butler’s absence.

 

At halftime, the Heat was down 47-50. They had 26 paint points, eight on the break, four on second chances, eight off turnovers and 21 from the bench. 

 

The Thunder had 20 paint points, six on the break, five via second chances, 12 off turnovers and 13 from the bench. 

 

Then Jaime Jaquez started the second half in Butler’s place. He accidentally elbowed Adebayo above the left eye while hunting for a defensive rebound. Adebayo left momentarily to get seven stitches and returned with four minutes left. He finished the period with a putback dunk. 

 

The Heat briefly took the lead on actions from Herro, Dru Smith and Haywood Highsmith. But the Thunder recovered it quickly as Williams dribbled to the elbow for a jumper, scored on the break and SGA made a quick 3-pointer after pickpocketing Dru Smith.  Coach Erik Spoelstra called a stoppage, but the zone and man coverage were no match for SGA, pulling up on the dribble from long and mid-range. He tore up the Heat for 13 points on five of 12 baskets in the period. 

 

The fourth quarter started with the Heat down 70-81. Williams burned the Heat with two more shots from mid-range, two up close and one from deep. And Hartenstein added six points and six rebounds. 

 

The Heat’s response- nine of 20 baskets from Adebayo, Herro, Smith and Duncan Robinson wasn’t enough to lift the squad out of the deficit. 

 

The Heat lost 97-104. They had 46 paint points, 10 on the break, 12 via second chances, 15 off turnovers and 36 from the bench. 

 

Herro had 28 points on 11 of 24 shots, with 12 rebounds, five assists and three steals.

 

Adebayo had 17 points on seven of 11 attempts, with 10 rebounds, one assist, one steal, one block and six turnovers.

 

And Dru Smith had 13 points on 83.3% shooting, with four assists, two steals, one block and three turnovers. 

 

The Thunder totaled 40 paint points, 13 on the break, 11 via second chances, 27 off turnovers and 17 from the bench. 

 

After the game, Spoelstra said SGA is a great player and that “you’re not going to hold a guy like that to 25 points, but you have to scramble around, hopefully keep their team average down. We did that for the most part but weren’t able to put points on the board.”

 

Observations:

 

1. Adebayo’s turnovers were caused by bad passes, getting stripped by SGA and traveling. The Heat had 18 in total. This was the third game with at least that many but the first loss.

 

2. Herro had double-digit rebounds for the second time this season. His other 10-rebound game was in the Heat’s win versus the Dallas Mavericks on Nov. 24.

 

3. The Thunder were 21-1 when taking a lead into the fourth quarter and are now 22-1. They were on the second night of a back-to-back, having beat the Orlando Magic on Thursday.

 

4. The Heat’s attack saw a ferocious set defense for 82.9% of the time.

 

5. Adebayo’s double-double moves him past Alonzo Mourning for second-most in Heat history with 206. Rony Seikaly is still first with 221.

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: NBA Notes through Week Nine

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Fortunes can change in the NBA in a matter of weeks. The public and yours truly was almost done burying the Milwaukee Bucks for their poor start, but they’ve since become one of the hottest teams in the league, thanks to beating up on a bunch of bad squads. On top of that, they are the latest Emirates Cup champions, crowned on Tuesday after their victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

 

Boston Celtics guard Payton Pritchard is balling so hard this season that he may be the first guy since Darrell Armstrong in 1999 to be the Sixth Man of the Year and claim the Most Improved Player crown.

 

The Orlando Magic’s defense is the third-rated in the NBA, and they have been without its best players, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner for 23 and three games.

 

Let’s review some other things of note in the NBA…

 

Denver Nuggets guard has taken a huge leap

 

Christian Braun is a better player now than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ever was with the Denver Nuggets. CB was promoted to the starting unit after KCP’s departure and has emerged as the team’s top two-way player.

 

Last season, Braun averaged 7.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks and 0.7 turnovers. He shot 38.4% from deep on two tries and 49.8% from two-point range, on mostly half-court cuts. He only played 20.2 minutes nightly.

 

Yet, life comes at you fast in the NBA. Braun has been a top-three Nugget 23 games into 2024-25 after all his work in the lab. In 14.5 extra minutes this season, he is recording 15 points on 56.7% shooting, with 5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

 

Braun’s third-year leap is real and not just numbers from a player logging more minutes. If he were the same guy, his effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage would be the same or lower. He has elevated both of those categories by 9.6% and 10%.

 

He is excellent at moving without the ball and is more of an open-court threat for quick baskets. His efficiency at the rim is 6.7% higher than the league average, which is where he slightly hovered above last year. Defensively, he stays on the dribble well plus is good at locking and trailing.

 

The league’s best paint attackers in the half-court

 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox, Luka Dončić, Jalen Brunson, LaMelo Ball, and Ja Morant bludgeon the paint in the half-court like no one else. Examine their efficiency below.

 

Players

SGA

Fox

Dončić

Brunson

Ball

Morant

Drives

21.2

16.6

15.3

18.3

16.5

16.3

FGA

10.0

8.5

7.0

7.3

8.8

7.7

Accuracy

58.6

58.1

57.9

50.3

51.5

51.2

 

SGA, Fox, Brunson, Morant and Ball have explosive first steps. Dončić does not, but his elite handle and strength on the dribble allow him to maneuver anywhere. Each of them are high-powered engines who create many overreactions.

 

Stand out guys

 

Tyler Herro and LaMelo Ball are the only NBA players averaging at least 24 points, four assists and four 3-point makes per game this season, per Stathead.

 

Aside from this year, those numbers have been recorded just 14 times in NBA history by Stephen Curry (8), James Harden (2), Luka Dončić and Damian Lillard (3). Each player was an All-Star that season.

 

What to think about James Harden passing Ray Allen…

 

Better late than never, but James Harden passed Ray Allen for second all-time in regular season 3-point makes on Nov. 17 with two treys in eight tries against the Utah Jazz.  He’s not a more lethal shooter than Allen, but the way Harden has done it deserves respect.

 

For his career, Harden has downed 36.3% of 3-point attempts in the regular season and 34% in the playoffs. Yet, only 40.1% (regular season) and 34.9% (playoffs) of those shots were assisted. An incalculable amount of these baskets came from his step-back move. Also, it’s harder to be a deep threat this way because the defense knows where the rock is coming from. When someone is playing off-ball, they get open more because the defense loses track of seeing them and the ball.

 

Allen has him beat by 3.7% and 6.1% in career long-range accuracy. But his 3-pointers were assisted 84% (regular season) and 85.2% (playoffs) of the time.

 

Allen can always brag about his superiority when recalling Game 6 of the 2013 Finals, shattering the hearts of the San Antonio Spurs with a second-chance corner triple to tie.

 

Nonetheless, Harden’s achievement deserves tons of praise because he was a slasher, above all, with an exceptional ability to mislead the refs and take trips to the line.

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Heat’s comeback failed in overtime in Detroit

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Jimmy Butler’s best performance of the season and Tyler Herro’s late-game heroics were not enough to save the Heatles in the Motor City. They failed to be a factor from long range. And Tim Hardaway Jr. was the hottest weapon out of the holster in overtime.

 

The first quarter was close, thanks to Jimmy Butler’s seven points on a cut and score in the lane, a corner shot and a floater. Additionally, Bam Adebayo registered five points, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. made two shots at the rim. 

 

Yet, the Pistons strafed the visitors with six 3-pointers, and Cade Cunningham scored or assisted on seven of their 13 first-quarter baskets. 

 

Next, the hosts  started the second quarter on a 16-5 run through five minutes, forcing a Heat stoppage. On top of that, the Pistons had 10 of 13 treys logged by the midway mark of the period, and their first-half lead ballooned to 14 points.

 

But the crew stole five Detroit possessions, and Butler’s continuous rim attacks and six freebies sliced the deficit to four points. 

 

At halftime, the Heat was down 59-63. They had 30 paint points, eight on the break, five via second chances, 18 off turnovers and 16 from the bench. To boot, the crew took nine extra field goal attempts than Detroit by intermission. 

 

The Pistons had 22 paint points, 17 on the break, four via second chances, two off turnovers and 19 from the bench.

 

Subsequently, the third quarter was a disaster for the Heat, scoring on six of 19 attempts as the Pistons out-pointed them by 12. Amen Thompson and Malik Beasley defiled the defense with three baskets at close range and made three 3-pointers. 

 

The Heat were on the ropes in the fourth quarter, too, as their deficit swelled back to 19 points. Then, while down a dozen with four minutes left, the crew came alive, like a boxer catching a second wind late in a bout after suffering two knockdowns. Butler plus Terry Rozier made layups, and Herro connected on three treys, including the game-tying bucket that forced overtime. 

 

They started overtime by scoring eight straight points with buckets from Adebayo, Butler and Duncan Robinson. But Detroit countered with three Hardaway triples and Cunningham’s layup through the middle. Butler made a put-back without a shoe on the previous possession to give the Heat a one-point lead. It would’ve been a legendary team moment had they won.

 

The Heat lost 124-125. They had 62 paint points, 17 on the break, nine via second chances, 28 off turnovers and 35 from the bench.

 

Butler had a triple-double with 35 points on 12 of 21 attempts, plus 19 rebounds, 10 assists, four steals and one block.

 

Herro had 23 points on nine of 25 shots, with four rebounds, one assist, one steal and three turnovers. 

 

And Adebayo had 15 points on six of 12 attempts, with eight rebounds, three assists, one steal and one turnover. 

 

The Pistons had 44 paint points, 26 on the break, six via second chances, 14 off turnovers and 33 from the bench. They also made 20 of 40 3-pointers.

 

Observations: 

 

1. In the fourth quarter, Adebayo and Terry Rozier played 12 minutes and Dru Smith was seconds shy of it. Butler and Herro were the other high-minute players, with eight in the frame.  

 

2. Cunningham had 18 assists. He exploited the Heat with hit-ahead passes, kick outs plus dump-offs on dribble penetration and swung the ball to open shooters. 

 

3. This is the Heat’s fourth loss in the last five road games.

 

4. Before Herro made the tying shot to force overtime, Butler had the ball with his back to the basket on the left side as the team was down three points. Had the Pistons fouled Butler, Herro doesn’t tie on that possession.

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Tyreek Hill has his hands on the ball, but Derek Stingley Jr. took it away for the interception that sealed the Dolphins' loss at Houston.

Pressure Point: Tagovailoa’s four turnovers virtually seal another failed Dolphins season

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This is the time of year when the Miami Dolphins can always be counted on to sink to the occasion.

Their 20-12 defeat Sunday at Houston was as predictable as a holiday party hangover. Happens every year when they run into a legitimate playoff-caliber team with their season on the line, particularly on the road.

The question was, how would they screw the pooch this time against the AFC South-leading Texans?

If you had four turnovers by Tua Tagovailoa — the hottest quarterback in the league coming into the game — and a fake punt in your office pool, ding, ding, ding, you’re the winner of a Miami Dolphins Wait Until Next Year poster!

Tagovailoa had gone 184 passes without an interception before he threw one right to Texans rookie safety Calen Bullock on a pass intended for Tyreek Hill as the Dolphins were positioned to at least kick a field goal late in the first half.

Instead, the Texans banked a field goal on the last play of the half off the turnover. Earlier, a strip sack of Tua was turned into the first Houston touchdown.

So, that’s 10 points gifted to the home team right there.

Dolphins fall for fake punt

Add another seven points after the fake punt caught the Dolphins napping on the opening possession of the second half.

Running back Dare Ogunbowale took a direct snap and ran free along the sideline for 35 yards to the Miami 4. That set up C.J. Stroud’s second touchdown pass to Nico Collins.

Still, the game remained within reach until Tagovailoa was picked off twice in the fourth quarter by Derek Stingley Jr. on passes intended for Hill.

The Miami defense did a solid job, holding the Texans to 181 yards and 12 first downs. They sacked the mobile Stroud four times.

Mike McDaniel’s offense spit the bit as the biggest stars failed to deliver.

Tua finished 29 of 40 for 196 yards, one touchdown (leaping catch by Jonnu Smith), three interceptions and a 60.0 passer rating.

“Plain and simple, it’s just my fault,” Tagovailoa said in his postgame assessment. “Very disappointed with how I played today.”

Tyreek Hill no help in loss to Texans

Tagovailoa’s critics will cite it as another example of the quarterback failing to deliver in a big game. His highest-paid receiver must share the blame.

Hill had trouble getting open all day against the Texans’ aggressive secondary. He caught only two passes for 36 yards on seven targets.

On the final interception that snuffed away all hope, Hill had his hands on a slightly under-thrown pass, and Stingley wrestled it away from him.

Jaylen Waddle didn’t have a reception before leaving in the first half with a knee injury.

The running game was nonexistent: 2.7 yards a carry for 52 yards.

The offensive line, with subs at both tackles, got pushed back throughout the game. Jackson Carman was the Dolphins third to start at right tackle.

On the play that Tagovailoa fumbled on a sack by Pro Bowl defensive end Will Anderson Jr., Carman and right guard Liam Eichenberg were overpowered by the pass rush.

“We don’t turn the ball over, they don’t get the big special teams play, it’s a different game,” Hill said.

Ah, yeah. Funny how those sort of misfortunes always happen to the Dolphins in these season-defining games.

Stark reality: Dolphins not playoff caliber

Can’t blame it on cold weather this time. They were playing inside a dome in climate-controlled conditions.

This really is the same old story, year after year, and it doesn’t have to do with weather.

It’s about not being good enough.

The Miami Dolphins organization hasn’t fielded a team capable of winning anything meaningful in decades. They will extend their drought without a playoff win since the 2000 season for at least another year.

Oh, apparently there is some formula under quantum physics or some form of higher mathematics by which 6-8 Miami could somehow sneak into the playoffs with wins against the 49ers, Browns and Jets. I don’t even want to know about it.

Because there has been one obvious truth about these Dolphins since Week 1: This is not a playoff team. Nor has their play at any point this season been worthy of that distinction.

Grant DuBose hospitalized after scary hit

This hope-crushing defeat took on a more somber tone with second-year receiver Grant DuBose hospitalized after a helmet-to-helmet collision with Bullock on a pass over the middle in the third quarter.

“I feel bad that I even put him in that situation to get hit,” Tagovailoa said after the game. “I heard some good news that he’s doing well and recovering. We all know I’ve gone through something very similar, and that’s no fun. I just think of what I could have done to not put Grant in that situation.”

Since missing four games with his latest concussion, Tagovailoa was impressive in leading the Dolphins into playoff contention after a 2-6 start. But with losses at Green Bay and Houston in the past three weeks, the question remains about what it will take to break out of the endless cycle of not good enough for Tua and the Dolphins.

It promises to be an offseason of serious reckoning. Changes could be profound.

Are they still sold on Tagovailoa?

Depends on whether owner Steve Ross sticks with the coach and front office.

McDaniel’s fancy offense regressed this season. The Dolphins aren’t strong enough in the trenches. GM Chris Grier’s drafts haven’t been productive enough, though rookie pass rusher Chop Robinson is developing into a gem from the 2024 crop.

Overall, the depth of talent on the roster is simply not good enough. Consequently, it is no surprise that losses like Sunday at Houston keep coming in thoroughly predictable fashion.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo took over in the Heat’s win versus the Raptors

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The Heat overcame a 16-point-first-half deficit to defeat the Raptors, winning four in a row for the first time this season. The defense cranked up in the second half, plus Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo took over. 

 

To start, the hungry Raptors scored 20 points in the lane in the first quarter on fastbreak strikes and screen roll attacks in the half-court. Jakob Poeltl and Gradey Dick caused most of the destruction inside. 

 

Yet, the Heat countered with seven straight points from Herro at long and close range. Jimmy Butler also made two trips to the line, and Duncan Robinson scored six points on layups.

 

But the defense in the second frame was still chewed up, even when deploying the zone. A 14-2 Toronto run forced coach Erik Spoelstra to call a stoppage as his team was down 16 points. At that moment, the Heat had menmotum, as Pat Riley calls the opposite of momentum. 

 

Then the Heatles had a 14-2 run, supplied by Herro, Adebayo, Nikola Jović and Terry Rozier to force a Toronto timeout. After that stoppage, Dru Smith connected with Butler for soft alley-oop through contact, and Jović sprinkled in a trey and made a layup. 

 

At halftime, the Heat was up 58-51. The team had 28 paint points, three on the break, three via second chances, eight off turnovers and 23 from the bench.

 

The Raptors had 36 paint points, 14 on the break, three on extra tries, 13 off turnovers and 29 from the bench. 

 

Out of intermission, the defense shut down RJ Barrett by promptly bothering his close-range shots. On the other side, Herro crossed up Kelly Olynyk from at the top, dribbling down for a layup and drained two deep shots (one was a four-point play). On top of that, Kevin Love put up six points and Butler tallied two shots.  At the end of the period, the Heat led 89-76.

 

Subsequently, Adebayo cracked open the fourth quarter making two floaters, a wing triple and a layup for nine straight points. He added four more before the period ended, and Jaime Jaquez scored multiple field goals, too. 

 

On defense, the Heat prevented a comeback effort by intercepting the ball twice, poking it free once and holding Dick plus Barrett to two of 11 treys. 

 

The Heat won 114-104. Additionally, the team had 52 paint points, five on the break, 15 via second chances, 14 off turnovers and 42 from the bench.

 

Herro had 23 points on nine of 13 shots, with four rebounds, four assists and two turnovers. 

 

Adebayo had 21 points on 47.1% shooting, with 16 rebounds, five assists, one block and one turnover. 

 

The Raptors had 56 paint points, 19 on the break, 10 on extra tries, 23 off turnovers and 50 from the bench. 

 

Observations:

 

1. Dru Smith played 34 minutes, making it his third straight game with at least 25. He was a pest, bothering the ball on the dribble and after the catch. He is emerging into one of the Heat’s top perimeter disruptors.

 

At the postgame presser, Spoelstra said about Smith, “When you can find guys who do winning things over and over and over, that’s kind of a superpower in this league.”

 

2. The Heat held the Raptors to 18 of 33 shots at the rim, which is 11.1 percentage points below the league average (65.6).

 

3. Jović got his first minutes since the Heat’s win versus the Dallas Mavericks on Nov. 24. He was perfect on three shots in the first half, hitting two 3-pointers and dribbling on the baseline for a layup.  In the second half, he made an alley-oop layup through contact. 

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Tyler Herro adds to his All-Star case with another top-shelf performance in the win versus the Cavaliers

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The Heat successfully defended their home court against the hottest team in the league. The crew sliced up the visitors in the half-court. Tyler Herro outplayed five All-Stars, binging on Cleveland’s defense with outside jumpers and strikes to the lane. And Duncan Robinson had his fifth night of the season downing at least four trifectas.  

 

The defense, anchored by Bam Adebayo, was the story of the first half. They slowed down the Cavaliers to a 102 offensive rating, which would be below the average of the worst attack in the league. Butler got in on this action as well, intercepting one pass and poking the ball loose from Jarrett Allen’s grasp, which set up Herro on the break. 

.

Miami’s captain was in an offensive groove, too, logging five of seven attempts, and Robinson added five freebies and two treys in the first half.

 

Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley did not play the second half because he sprained his ankle.

 

The third quarter was Herro’s second in three outings scoring at least 19 points. It was like watching a boxer unleash a storm of punches against his cornered foe. Robinson made two 3-pointers in the period, too. 

 

Then Herro had two offerings in the fourth quarter: one for Adebayo on the right wing for a 3-pointer and another for Dru Smith on a baseline cut. Smith was the hot weapon out of the holster to close, giving everyone else a break. 

 

Postgame, Terry Rozier said he hopes Herro keeps it up the whole year. Coach Erik Spoelstra said he is opening up other layers of the team’s offense. “You gotta spend some time trying to scheme against him.”

 

In total, Herro supplied 34 digits on 10 of 19 shots, with six rebounds and seven dimes. It was his fifth night of the season breaking 30 points. Adebayo and Butler each had at least 30 points on two nights this year. 

 

Consider this: if Herro were swapped for Jamal Murray, the Denver Nuggets would be contenders again.

 

Herro has graduated as a professional scorer with solid playmaking abilities. He is one of seven players in the NBA scoring at least 23 points per game and logging a 59.0 effective field goal percentage. The others are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Nikola Jokić Karl-Anthony Towns, and Norman Powell. Antetokounmpo is the only Eastern All-Star from last season on this list.

 

“The goal is to win a championship, but it starts now with building the habits,” Herro said. 

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Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith celebrates with a higher authority after catching the winning touchdown pass in overtime against the Jets.

Pressure Point: Jonnu Smith answers Miami Dolphins’ prayers in OT, keeps season alive

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Note to Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel: Next time get Jonnu Smith involved in the offense during the first 60 minutes and maybe you won’t have to go to overtime to put away a bottom-feeding opponent.

The veteran tight end, who is having a career year in his first season with the Dolphins but was targeted only once during regulation Sunday, surfaced with three receptions for 44 yards in overtime including the decisive 10-yard touchdown catch in an ugly but dramatic 32-26 win over the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium.

Consequently, the Dolphins’ season still has a breath of hope. Barely.

At 6-7 the Dolphins are well aware they must win out to have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs. Even that would require stumbles by teams ahead of them.

But for three quarters they played with no apparent sense of desperation and nearly let their most despised rival deal a killing blow to their star-crossed season.

Zach Sieler’s sack pivotal for Dolphins

It wasn’t until they entered the fourth quarter trailing by eight points that the Dolphins began showing a sense of urgency. It began with a sack of Aaron Rodgers by Zach Sieler that forced the Jets to punt for the first time in the game.

That sparked a frantic comeback that required a 4-yard touchdown toss on fourth down from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill, a clutch grab by Jaylen Waddle for the 2-point conversion and finally Jason Sanders’ second field goal beyond 50 yards of the game just to get it to overtime.

It was an impressive comeback. It wasn’t an impressive performance by the Dolphins.

This wasn’t the frozen tundra of Green Bay or the hostile Bills den in Buffalo.

This was Fins friendly weather and cozy confines at Hard Rock Stadium, where the Jets haven’t won since 2014.

The Jets have only won three times this season. They have now lost four in a row and nine of their past 10. It is the type of record that can get your coach and general manager fired in-season, which has already happened to this Jets team.

Yet, they were playing like the playoff contender. The Jets scored on their first five possessions and completely took over the game in the third quarter.

Dolphins respond meekly about playing ‘soft’

After being insulted for playing “soft” in their Thanksgiving loss at Green Bay — even Dolphins linebacker Jordyn Brooks echoed the opinion — it would have figured that the Fins would be playing with a chip on their shoulders.

Instead, the Jets’ rookie running back duo of Isaiah Davis and Braelon Allen were breaking tackles and bowling over Miami defenders. Wide receivers Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson were getting wide open and Rodgers was dropping in easy tosses for big gains.

It didn’t help that the Dolphins were applying little pressure on the 41-year-old quarterback, who was dancing around the pocket like a ’90s MC Hammer singing “U Can’t Touch This.”

Rodgers ended up throwing for 339 yards, ending a 35-game drought without a 300-yard game, dating to 2021.

Dolphins masquerade as playoff contenders

Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ running game got stuffed again, held to 2.3 yards a carry.

On their touchdown drive to open the game, the Dolphins needed four plays to go the final three yards before De’Von Achane managed to bull his way in from the 2.

In other words, these Dolphins do not look like a bonafide playoff contender, nor have they all season.

Call them mathematical contenders. Their number may well hit zero next week at Houston against the AFC South-leading Texans. Three of their last four are on the road. After facing the 49ers at home, they close with cold-weather games at Cleveland and the Jets.

But give them their due for persevering in this one. Somehow.

“Find a way,” was the mind-set, according to wise old defensive tackle Calais Campbell.

Tagovailoa remains on hot streak

They did it with Tagovailoa continuing the hot hand he has had since returning from a four-game absence with a concussion.

Tagovailoa completed 33 of 47 passes for 331 yards, two touchdowns and a passer rating of 104.1. Since his return from injured reserve, he has thrown 15 touchdown passes with one interceptions.

A revival of the receiving duo of Hill (10 catches for 115 yards and the key fourth-quarter touchdown) and Waddle (nine receptions for 99 yards and the conversion with no room to spare) was vital to the comeback.

It also took a 45-yard kickoff return by Malik Washington that set up Sander’s tying 52-yard field goal with seven seconds left in regulation.

Brooks, who agreed the Dolphins played soft at Green Bay, said of this effort: “I feel like we didn’t play our best today, but when we needed a stop we got one. So I’m proud of that.”

He added, “You’ve got to enjoy this one. You’ve got to enjoy the wins when you can get them. Because it’s hard to get wins in this league.”

Jonnu Smith difference maker in overtime

This one was tougher without the benefit of Jonnu Smith’s contributions until overtime. Inexplicably, the only time he saw the ball before that was an ill-conceived backwards shovel pass by Tua that was incomplete.

When the Dolphins got their hands on the ball in OT, the first two plays went to Smith for 20 and 14 yards.

“I think Jonnu came up and said something to Mike [McDaniel] or had to have to get more included and that’s what happened,” Tagovailoa said. “He didn’t say anything during the game. Not seeing the ball can be discouraging. He never blinked and just took advantage of his opportunities.”

After catching the winning touchdown pass, Smith, who is an openly devout individual, held up his hands in prayer and looked skyward.

For this Sunday, at least, Dolphins prayers were answered in the nick of time. Next Sunday in Houston, they will need to pray, er, play, with more urgency from the start.
And Coach McDaniel, don’t forget about Jonnu Smith.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on the site formerly known as Twitter @CraigDavisRuns.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Bam Adebayo dominated as the Heat put away the Suns

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The Heatles handled the short-staffed Suns, improving to an 11-10 record. Tyler Herro flirted with a triple-double. Jimmy Butler’s nine straight points in the fourth quarter delivered the knockout blow. And Bam Adebayo erupted in the second half for one of his top showings of the season.  

 

In the first half, Adebayo struggled, missing three 3-point tries, including airballing one and falling on a close-range floater. But he came out of intermission, attacking the heart of the defense. From the third quarter on, he rim rolled, logged multiple putbacks and two jump shots for most of his 25 points, 12 rebounds and eight dimes. Four of his rebounds were on offense, too.

 

The Suns were absent Jusuf Nurkić and Kevin Durant, which significantly opened up the back line. Yet, seeing Adebayo take advantage of a tuneup game on his mother’s birthday was encouraging. 

 

This was only his third game of the season max cracking at least 25 points on at least 50% shooting (9/16). 

 

Of all his output, his nicest maneuver was taking the ball upcourt and scoring himself in the open court. A player of Adebayo’s athleticism and with his handle must be given more opportunities to showcase this extra dimension of terror. One can’t help but notice how that mandate has helped Cleveland Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley blossom. 

 

Additionally, Herro was unstoppable, dribbling to the cup. And when the Suns broke within three points in the last five minutes, Butler swished a corner triple and used two screen rolls to get from the top to the cup for layups. 

 

The Heat won 121-111. The team also had 62 paint points, 20 on the break, 11 via second chances, 19 off turnovers and 22 from the bench. 

 

After the game, coach Erik Spoelstra credited Adebayo’s leadership for the turning point in the third quarter. “He was the one organizing everybody.”

 

Adebayo said the game plan was to make Phoenix’s Bradley Beal and Devin Booker take tough shots. 

 

Observations:

 

1. Dru Smith next to Haywood Higsmith, Herro, Butler and Adebayo was sharp defensively. It’s a combination that Spoelstra should keep using. After the game, Butler said Smith made it hell for anyone he guarded. 

 

2.  Heat made 60.6% of effective field goals, which is good enough for the 84th percentile of all games played this season.

 

3. Herro, Butler and Adebayo combined for 66 digits on 26 of 40 attempts. If they keep playing off each other at this high level, they will be able to avoid the Play-in tournament and go directly to the Playoffs in round one.



Jevon Holland’s Value to the Dolphins: Great, Not $20 Million Great

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Why the Dolphins Should Pause on Extending Jevon Holland

Jevon Holland is undeniably one of the most talented young safeties in the NFL. Since being drafted by the Miami Dolphins in 2021, he has shown tremendous flashes of potential, delivering impactful plays that have energized the defense and helped secure critical wins. But in the NFL, where salary cap management is a zero-sum game, decisions about massive contract extensions require more than flashes of greatness—they demand consistent, top-tier production. While Holland has been a valuable asset to Miami’s defense, his occasional lapses and inconsistent impact make it difficult to justify a long-term contract that would place him among the league’s highest-paid safeties.

 

Holland is set to become a free agent this upcoming offseason.

Holland Has Been Great—But Not Consistently Enough

Holland’s ability to make big plays is unquestioned. Whether it’s breaking up a crucial pass, delivering a tone-setting tackle, or making an interception in a key moment, he has shown he can be a game-changer. However, those moments of brilliance have not come often enough to warrant a contract in the range of the NFL’s elite safeties.

  • Flashes vs. Consistency: While Holland has had stretches of excellent play, he hasn’t sustained that dominance over an entire season. He’ll have games where he looks like a top-five safety, only to follow them with performances that expose weaknesses in his coverage or tackling. Consistency is the hallmark of players earning top-tier contracts, and that’s where Holland falls short.
  • The Minkah Fitzpatrick Factor: Holland was drafted to fill the void left by Minkah Fitzpatrick, who the Dolphins traded to Pittsburgh in 2019. Fitzpatrick has since become a perennial Pro Bowler and All-Pro, anchoring the Steelers’ secondary with consistently elite performances. While Holland has made a strong impact for Miami, he hasn’t delivered at the same level or with the same reliability that Fitzpatrick has for Pittsburgh.

The Financial Reality of a Holland Extension

In today’s NFL, the safety position has seen an increase in value, with top-tier players commanding annual salaries in the $15–18 million range. Extending Holland now would likely mean committing to a deal in that ballpark, potentially tying up $60–70 million over four years with $30–40 million guaranteed.

  • Does Holland’s Play Justify Top-5 Money? Holland has shown the ability to be great, but his production doesn’t consistently match that of the league’s top safeties. Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, and Jessie Bates are known for delivering game-changing plays week after week, season after season. Holland’s intermittent brilliance isn’t enough to place him in that category—or pay him like he is.
  • The Dolphins’ Cap Situation: Miami already has major financial commitments to players like Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. In 2025, they’re projected to have minimal cap space, and a big contract for Holland could hamstring their ability to address other needs, such as bolstering the offensive line or maintaining depth on defense.

An Alternative Path: The Franchise Tag

One option for the Dolphins is to use the franchise tag on Holland in 2025. While expensive—projected at over $19 million for one season—it allows Miami to retain him without committing to a long-term deal. This approach buys time for Holland to prove he can deliver consistent, elite-level play while avoiding the risks of a premature extension.

Holland’s Role in the Defense

It’s important to note that Holland has been instrumental in Miami’s defensive success. His ability to play deep in coverage, come up to stop the run, and occasionally blitz makes him a versatile weapon. The Dolphins’ defense has been better with him on the field, and his leadership and football IQ are assets. However, versatility and potential alone don’t justify top-tier contracts—consistent, elite production does.

The Precedent of Overpaying for Potential

Extending Holland now, at elite money, would set a risky precedent for the Dolphins. It would signal to other players and agents that potential and occasional brilliance are enough to warrant a massive payday. In a league where roster construction requires discipline, overpaying for potential rather than proven performance can lead to long-term issues, including a lack of flexibility to address other critical needs.

The Verdict: Wait and See

Jevon Holland is a valuable part of the Dolphins’ defense and has the potential to be one of the league’s best safeties. But potential isn’t enough to justify a contract that would place him in the same financial tier as Minkah Fitzpatrick or Derwin James. The Dolphins need to see sustained, consistent excellence from Holland before committing to a long-term extension.

For now, the prudent move is to wait. Whether through a “prove-it” season or the franchise tag, Miami has options that allow them to retain Holland without risking the team’s financial health. Holland can still earn his payday, but it should be based on consistent, top-tier performance—not just flashes of what he might become.