What’s Wrong with the Panthers’ Special Teams?

The Florida Panthers are in a dogfight of a first round. Currently up 3-2 in the series, the games have been far more competitive than many expected. The strange thing, however, is that the Panthers are dominating Washington at even strength. So far in the series, the Panthers are outscoring the capitals 15-8 at even strength. The only thing keeping the series close thus far has been the struggles of the Panthers’ special teams.

Through the first five games of the series, the Panthers are 0-16 (not a typo) on the power play. Yes, the leagues number five power play on the year has yet to score a goal on SIXTEEN tries. Doing some quick math, that equates to a conversion rate of roughly 0 percent.

By Contrast, the Washington Capitals have scored on six of their 20 chances for a success rate of 30 percent. That number is significantly higher than their regular season average of 18.8 percent.

Unsurprisingly, the Panthers performance on special teams has made winning these games significantly harder. The Panthers need to flip their special teams play around if they want to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Power Play Woes

As a hockey fan, I think a disproportionate amount of hockey discourse centers around teams or players being cursed. It acts as a scapegoat for inexplicable playoff performances or uncanny strings of bad luck. Most of the time, its just popular pundits ignoring the obvious or fans living in denial as to why their team lost.

With that being said, I don’t think I’ve seen evidence of a curse as compelling as this one.

I’m only half joking, of course, but this is getting absurd. The Panthers power play struggled early on in the year, but finished as the fifth best in the league. The team was so red hot towards the end of the year they sustained a league best power play percentage of 30.9 percent since February.

And all of a sudden, it vanished.

There are a few moving parts that could explain this. The biggest adjustment for the team has been trying to reincorporate Aaron Ekblad back on the first power play unit. The team found a groove with the five forward power play, and it looks to be a struggle trying to reinstall Ekblad as the quarterback.

Whether it has more to do with Ekblad shaking off some rust coming off the injury or the lack of chemistry with a group that has never played together before, there is simply not enough time to figure it out now. When deployed the five forward power play has generated the most pressure for the Panthers this postseason. The plan should be to stick with that for now and figure out the Ekblad piece over the summer.

Besides that, better results will just come down to getting some more puck luck and playing with less fear. The Panthers are clearly the more talented team. Because of that, high event hockey plays to their advantage. Even if they give up more shorthanded chances, the talent on the roster affords them that luxury. If they play more aggressively and with more movement, more goals will follow.

Penalty kill struggles

To their credit, the Panthers have done an excellent job limiting Alexander Ovechkin’s impact on the power play. They have overcommitted to his one timer and forced him to pass out of his usual spots. He has only scored one power play goal all series, and it came on a broken play.

Obviously, overcommitting to one player opens up plenty of other options for the opponent, and the capitals are taking advantage of that. The main benefactor of this strategy has been T.J. Oshie. Oshie has scored four power play goals this series. The connection between Oshie and quarterback John Carlson has been superb. Oshie tipping and redirecting Carlson’s soft shots has made the Panthers penalty kill look silly all series.

As seen below, the Panthers pressure Ovechkin out of the zone, but some quick puck movement leads to a Capitals goal.

Fixing this one will be tricky. Washington is fortunate enough to have the greatest shooter of our lifetimes on their team and three guys (Carlson, Backstrom, Kuznetsov) who excel at getting him the puck. Overcommitting to him is the right call, but the defense relaxes too much when the puck isn’t in the vicinity of the great 8.

Washington does have a fatal flaw, however, and that is predictability. Their M.O. has John Carlson setting the table for everything and everybody else at the top of the zone. Florida can counter this by putting pressure on the slow footed Carlson and make him move the puck before he is ready.

Look how much space the Panthers give Carlson to take the shot in the clip below. The Capitals want to feed him at the point, and the Panthers let it happen, which leads to a goal.

It may seem counter intuitive to play aggressively that high in the zone when shorthanded, but Carlson has destroyed the conservative approach. Carlson may still be an excellent power play QB, is not the player he used to be physically. The Panthers have excellent speed and need to use that to their advantage here. The key is to be proactive rather than reactive. The Capitals are too experienced for the Panthers to be playing catch up with.

Overall, the Panthers have shown some good and some bad in this first round matchup. They’ve been the better team 5v5, but they’ve also made this series much harder than it needed to be. Hopefully it will serve as a learning experience for them and they can make the adjustments to win this round and more rounds going forward. Only time will tell.

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Samuel Schettrit***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel

 

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Florida Panthers head into Game 5 tied 2-2 despite visible concerns in the series

With the series tied at 2-2, Florida still has visible issues that could be the difference of winning or losing this series

 

Finishing the regular season atop the league standings had many onlookers heavily favoring the Florida Panthers in their first round matchup against the Washington Capitals. 

 

Washington, who came off of a Stanley Cup win in 2018, was not going to let the Panthers walk all over them in this series. 

 

From the moment the puck dropped in Game 1, the Capitals had their foot on the gas and competed with the Panthers, outclassing them in many aspects of the game, including goalscoring. 

 

After splitting the first two games in Sunrise, Washington returned home to the nation’s capital for Game 3. The Capitals put on a clinic, demolishing the Panthers 6-1 and taking a 2-1 series lead.

 

Heading into Monday night’s Game 4, the Panthers were on the brink of facing a 3-1 series deficit if they couldn’t steal a road game back from the Capitals,

 

On Monday, the game plan looked better than any other game in the series. Florida was getting pucks in deep, countering Washington’s tight gaps in the neutral zone and creating traffic around the Capital’s goal.

 

Despite dominating Washington in shots, faceoff percentage and scoring chances, the Panthers found themselves looking for a goal with under three minutes to play in the third. 

 

Interim head coach Andrew Brunette pulled goaltender Sergei Bobrvosky, and the Cats pushed for the tying goal. With 2:04 left in regulation, Sam Reinhart corralled a puck from mid air, put it in front of him and buried his first-career NHL playoff goal, sending the game to overtime.

In OT, the “Comeback Cats” prevailed when Carter Verhaeghe scored his second goal of the game, sending the series back to Sunrise tied at 2-2.

 

That’s how the Panthers found themselves in a tied series heading into Wednesday night’s Game 5 at FLA Live Arena in Sunrise.

 

It’s a best-of-three series now, but the Cats have not played the greatest team hockey to this point. There are major concerns that could have been the difference between this series being 2-2 and the Panthers having a lead going into Game 5.

 

If Florida fixes these problems, it’s their series to take.

0 power play goals cannot happen

When you look at the Panthers’ lineup on paper, the first thing you’ll think of is explosive offensive talent. They have seven players in the lineup with at least 20 goals from the regular season. The team scored a league high 4.11 goals a game and had more goals (337) than any other team in the league. 

 

You’d think the best scoring team in the league would take advantage of their opportunities on the powerplay, right? 

 

Through the first four games of the series, the Panthers are 0/13 on the powerplay, while the Capitals are 5/17, 29.4%. 

 

Every team in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs have scored at least 2 power play goals so far in the first round, except for Florida. 

 

When the games are close and you fail to capitalize on power play chances, your opponent gets all the momentum from the kill, while your power play unit can’t buy a goal.

 

Florida is lucky that they aren’t out of the series by now with a 0% power play. 

 

In Game 4, the adjustments seemed to have been made for the power play setup. The puck  was moving faster, guys were opening themselves up in shooting lanes, and the players were carrying the puck up and down the wall more rather than being stationary which is common for the Panthers power play.  

 

The best power play setup I saw in Game 4 was when they moved Aleksander Barkov away from the point and had him working alongside the right end board. With his size, passing ability and skill with the puck, he is way more efficient closer to goal than at the top of the point. Stick to that sort of setup and movement and the puck will find the back of the net. 

 

Aleksander Barkov has not shown his usual explosiveness with the puck

When he is on his game, there’s not many better players on the planet than Aleksander Barkov. In this series however, the captain has not looked like his usual self offensively. The stat sheet has him with 3 points (1 goal, 2 assists), which is the same as Jonathan Huberdeau. While the pair have the same points, Huberdeau has been more visible in this series.

 

No question both guys could be better considering how good they were in the regular season, but it’s the playoffs and Barkov hasn’t had the jump you’d expect of a guy who had 39 goals and 88 points in 67 games this season. With Huberdeau, I’ve seen him carry the puck in, hit open guys and push the Caps defense back pretty frequently this series. Barkov, not so much. 

 

Defensively, the back checking, corner battles and getting in lanes are all still there.  It’s the explosive punch that hasn’t been awakened yet in the series. Barkov is so good with the puck on his stick, it’s hard for the opponent to bounce him off it when he gets going.

 

Being more selfish, dropping the shoulder and driving the net, testing Washington’s goalie, that’s what Barkov needs to do because he’s a star player and star players dominating win you a series. 

 

Barkov needs to take over the game; when that happens, Washington will have a 6’3, 215 pound machine coming at them.

Anthony Duclair is losing ice time, fast

Duclair has been one of the best stories of this Panther team. After bouncing around the league, the 26-year-old’s sixth NHL team would be the one where he found a home, in Sunrise. 

 

Duclair had a career-high 31 goals this season, shattering his previous best of 23.

 

Unfortunately for him, his scoring touch has not carried over to the postseason. Duclair is goalless through four games and has seen his ice time rapidly drop. 

 

In Game 1, Duclair had 14:09 of total on ice time. Since then it has progressively decreased, with Duke only seeing the ice for 9:48. 

 

In six games last postseason against Tampa, Duclair went pointless, while seeing his ice time dwindle to around the 10 minute mark then too. 

 

I don’t know if it’s a confidence thing for Duke, but he’s such an offensively skilled player and him putting the puck in the net would be a huge help for the Panthers if they want to advance to the second round.

Can they fix it?

This isn’t the regular season, so you don’t have 82 games, hundreds of practices/skates to get everything in order. The Playoffs is where the champions are separated from the rest. If all three of these concerns can be fixed, great, but that’s wishful thinking as we are just hours away from a decisive Game 5. I think if at least one of these areas of concern can be addressed tonight, the Panthers will have a better chance of winning the series.

Way too early 2023 Mock Draft

The 2022 NFL Draft has ended, and it was a turbulent one. Now, it’s time for a way too early 2023 NFL Mock Draft.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

Pick 1: Texans – Will Anderson EDGE

I’m sorry Texans’ fans, no QB here. You guys are getting Will Anderson, a once-in-a-generation player. Just for reference, Will Anderson was called “the next guy” by Nick Saban his first day on campus.

Anderson’s unique athletic ability combined with his incredible pass rush IQ let him lead the SEC in sacks — as a true freshman during the Covid year against only SEC competition.

Pick 2: Lions – Bryce Young QB

Next, The Lions go for the “Burrow-to-Chase” type connection. The 2022 Heisman gets reunited with his favorite target, who just happens to be this year’s pick for the Lions. Jameson Williams and Young get to be back together in the NFL. Yes, C.J. Stroud could be the better pick this year. However, Young just makes too much sense.

Pick 3: Jaguars – Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR

In my opinion, as of right now Jaxon Smith-Njigba is better coming out than his other two Ohio State counterparts. Now, this is a “Way too early 2023 NFL Mock Draft” so everything could change, but JSN had top ten tape as a sophomore. So just take that as you will.

Pick 4: Giants – C.J Stroud QB

Yeah, the Daniel Jones project failed. Joe Schoen gets his guy to build with in C.J Stroud. Stroud and Young will be battling for QB1 all year long. With the concerns over Young’s height, Stroud could very well be QB1. However in this world, the Giants get lucky and get Stroud at 4.

Pick 5: Panthers – B.J. Ojulari EDGE

The Panthers let Matt Corral have the keys late in the year after Darnold struggles, and he played them right out of the top 3. So, they go with the 6’3″ EDGE from LSU B.J. Ojulari. Ojulari will test really well come NFL Combine time, which will land him in this top 5 slot.

Pick 6: Falcons – Bryan Bresee IDL

I see the Falcons playing their way out of a QB. Unless they go Spencer Rattler, Phil Jurkovec or Hendon Hooker, which I don’t see at six as of right now — especially after drafting Ridder.

Bryan Bresee is a monster. He is 6’5″ 300 lbs and has a very deep bag of tricks to use when pass rushing. Bresee is a bonafide NFL starter.

Pick 7: Jets – Jalen Carter IDL

Oh, would you look at that, UGA has another stud defensive lineman. In all seriousness, Jalen Carter is better than Jordan Davis in my opinion. He is quicker off the line and a better pass rusher than Davis. Carter is going to prove his worth this season, being the leading man in UGA’s new defensive line.

Pick 8: Seahawks – Spencer Rattler QB

A lot of people aren’t going to like this one. Spencer Rattler comes all the way back from the depth of despair and makes himself the blue chip guy he was before last season. Spencer has all the weapons in the world at South Carolina: Josh Vann, Corey Rucker, Antwane Wells and that’s not including a killer TE room. Look out for Rattler this year.

Pick 9: Bears – Paris Johnson Jr. OT

This offensive line class feels very weak compared to Evan Neal, Charles Cross and Ikem Ekwonu. Nonetheless, Paris Johnson is still really good. He isn’t any of those three guys in my opinion, but he is a great option for the Bears because well, protect Fields PLEASE.

Pick 10: Steelers – Kelee Ringo CB

I had a really hard time with this one. Mostly because I couldn’t pick between Eli Ricks and Kelee Ringo. As Mitch Wolfe said

“Steelers first round picks are normally 1) Underclassmen 2) Power 5 kids 3) Insane athletes.”

Well these two are all three of these things. I went Ringo. The crazy athletic UGA corner might actually get some targets this year, since quarterbacks might actually have time to throw the ball this year.

Pick 11: Commanders – Brandon Joseph S

I’m going to be 100% honest, I feel bad mocking Brandon Joseph here with how teams valued Kyle Hamilton. However, I don’t think Joseph will test the way Hamilton did, which could catapult him up to 11. The Northwestern transfer is going to be vital to Notre Dame’s defense this year.

Pick 12: Vikings – Myles Murphy IDL

It’s shades of 2019 in Clemson with two defensive lineman in the first round. Myles Murphy is just another one of those guys who on tape was a first rounder last year. Coming back? Oh yeah, that definitely should move him up into this range.

Pick 13: Raiders – Bjian Robinson RB

A FIRST ROUND RUNNING BACK?!? Well, Josh Jacobs probably won’t be in Vegas after this year, as the Raiders turned down his 5th-year option.

So, replace him with a guy who can do it all. Watch Bijan Robinson and find me a legitimate hole in his game.

Pick 14: Eagles – Eli Ricks CB

After leaving LSU for Alabama, there is a big year coming for the physical corner. Ricks is a guy who I firmly believe in. He may end up as CB1 by the time the draft rolls around. The reason Ricks isn’t CB1 in this mock just because of the fit with the Steelers and Ringo.

Pick 15: Eagles – Nolan Smith EDGE

Nolan Smith could be the best player on UGA’s defense, but he falls here to 15 due to some off-the-field problems. Smith was driving with a suspended license and he got caught speeding. Other than that? Smith is going to be a star for UGA and will make an NFL team very happy one day.

Pick 16: Dolphins – Jahmyr Gibbs RB

Jahmyr Gibbs joins the likes of Derrick Henry and Najee Harris as a stud running back from Alabama who is going to make a huge difference in the NFL.

He, much like Robinson who went three picks prior, is a complete back. Runs with power, speed, and has great hands.

Pick 17: Patriots – Michael Mayer TE

You want honesty? I took Michael Mayer here because it FEELS like a Bill Belichick pick. Mayer is good, don’t get me wrong, but he shouldn’t go this high. He is a good blocker and a good pass catcher, however he isn’t a unicorn like Pitts so I don’t see him going this high unless someone takes a big shot on him.

Pick 18: Cardinals – Trenton Simpson LB

The Cardinals used their first rounder this year on Hollywood Brown. So in 2023, look for them to add to an aging defense. Trenton Simpson is a perfect fit next to Isaiah Simmons. Simpson is aggressive, but has a great football IQ and good enough vision to be able to make sure he doesn’t over commit.

Pick 19: Titans – Kayshon Boutte WR

Imagine losing AJ Brown, replacing him with Treylon Burks, then adding a guy who was crowned as the next great LSU WR as a true freshman. Kayshon Boutte is that guy.

Pick 20: Colts – Jordan Addison WR

The run on wide receivers begins. Kenny Pickett and now maybe Caleb Williams? The number 1 target for those guys gets shipped out to Indy.

Addison entered the transfer portal after spring ball and is likely headed to SoCal. Addison has great hands and uses his body really well in the air.

Pick 21: Texans – Marvin Mims WR

I think Marvin Mims will have a down year after losing his coach and two quarterbacks, but the talent is 100% there for the 5′ 11″, 177 lbs Oklahoma wide receiver. Mims is fast, a good route runner , and has great hands. Mims will be a good fit for Mills — if he is, in fact, the guy in Houston.

Pick 22: Ravens – Noah Sewell LB

It feels like the Ravens never stop picking up good defenders. So, I’m just going to put Noah Sewell here. Paired up with Patrick Queen, the Ravens somehow get even scarier. Sewell and his teammate Justin Flowe could easily shoot up draft boards.

Pick 23: Bengals – Byron Young IDL

The other “B. Young” from Alabama is Byron, and he is going to make waves for the Tide this year. Now, Young waited behind Christian Barmore and Phidarian Mathis, he is the next up in a long line of Alabama defensive lineman to become a difference maker. Young is strong, and it mostly comes from his explosiveness.

Pick 24: Chargers – Joey Porter Jr. CB

With Chris Harris getting older and already having J.C. Jackson and Asante Samuel Jr, replace the pricey Harris with Joey Porter Jr.

Now you have the best young core of defensive backs in the game. Porter is very fluid in his movements and always does a good job with his hands.

Pick 25: Cowboys – Henry To’oto’o LB

Henry To’oto’o was a monster at Tennessee, had a very good year at Alabama, and chose to come back after losing the National Championship. Henry T’s biggest issue is over-commitment. He can be too aggressive and can get caught in the wrong hole, which is his downfall.

Pick 26: Seahawks – Christian Mahogany IOL

I am expecting a huge year from Boston College’s Christian Mahogany. He has to fix his feet just a bit, however, I am a firm believer in his hands and size combo. If your team needs a late first O-line this is the guy.

Pick 27: Dolphins – Isaiah Foskey IDL

After two weak interior defensive line classes, Isaiah Foskey is the fifth (and not final) IDL to come off the board.

Foskey is an anchor for Notre Dame and is going to work his way into the first round come next April. The big man clogs up gaps quickly with an explosive first step.

Pick 28: Lions – Zion Tupuola-Fetui EDGE

An ABSOLUTE BEAST, Zion Tupuola-Fetui is an physical specimen. However, everyone has doubts with PAC12 pass rushers, and with little production someone will have to bet on talent. I think putting Aidan Hutchinson with Tupuola-Fetui in this 2023 NFL Mock Draft would allow Tupuola-Fetui to grow into his role.

Pick 29: Packers – Garrett Williams CB

I would love to put Garrett Williams next to Jaire Alexander for the Packers. It is a match made in heaven, honestly. Williams is another guy who hasn’t produced much, mostly because people don’t throw at him.

Pick 30: Chiefs – Justin Eboigbe IDL

The final interior defensive lineman goes. Justin Eboigbe is another guy who you have to bet on upside with. He won’t produce much with Young, Anderson, Dallas Turner, and more on that Bama D-line . The Chiefs are in a good enough spot where they can bet on traits.

Pick 31: Buccaneers – Phil Jurkovec QB

Okay, let’s get serious, if Phil Jurkovec doesn’t get hurt he is probably QB1 in this past year’s draft class. He gets the short end of the stick by having to wait a year, where he is now QB4.

However, he probably lands in the best spot any rookie could ask for.

Pick 32: Bills – Derick Hall EDGE

The Bills can bet on the athletic ability of Derick Hall. So far in his college career, he has been super rough around the edges. In this mock, the Bills land an amazing athlete at the 32nd pick in the 2023 NFL Mock Draft.

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Luke Krumich***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel

 

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Miami Grand Prix Coverage | Hitting the Apex

No one covered the Miami Grand Prix in Miami like Hitting the Apex on 5 Reasons Sports. Here is the week’s content.

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

 

The Madness of Formula 1 Race Week in Miami | Hitting the Apex

Covering a Formula 1 weekend has a cadence to it.

The week starts properly on Thursday, where you can get access to the Media Center.

From there, everything gets increasingly serious.

Thursday

The only set thing on the schedule was a workshop followed by a track tour.

The workshop was critical for someone such as myself, covering a Formula 1 race as media for the first time. If I knew anything from decades of following Formula 1, there are rules and regulations for everything and I wasn’t looking to break any of them.

At the workshop, which was held in the press conference room, I found out I was able to take photos of everything I had access to (no videos) and would be able to attend the formal press conferences. I also found out that from where we were sitting, there was no actual way to see the cars running.

Which makes sense. If you’re covering the race as a journalist, you can’t actually tell what’s going on from watching a car zip by at a million miles an hour. We are seated in an air conditioned room with monitors showing the race and timing data, which is optimal for producing content.

The highlight of Thursday was the track tour. We were driven around the track and stopped at various points where we were told about asphalt compounds and the nature of the circuit.

The only thing that really takes you out of the moment and makes you realize where you are is the presence of the Turnpike hovering ominously at certain corners.

When we returned to the Paddock, I was free to walk through it and took some photos, while the team crews moved in equipment.

Friday

The highlight of Friday for media is the driver press conferences. All drivers are required to participate. I walked into the Press Conference Room (this is the only place the entire weekend where masks are required), and took a seat a few rows from the front.

I was mostly able to take photos, but there were a few obstructions.

I wrote extensively on the press conference experience earlier this week.

When I exited the press conference 2 hours later, life had changed. Fans had arrived in the Paddock, and the calmness that characterized all of Thursday and Friday Morning was gone.

From this:

To this:

And then the racing started. 2 practice sessions, driver interviews, and crowds characterized the rest of the day.

Saturday

This is where things get serious. Security was tighter, with qualifying happening.

It was at this point that I realized how exhausting reporting on Formula 1 is. When I cover the Canes, there is usually one macro-event, the game itself. For a Formula 1 weekend, each session is a micro-event, culminating with the macro-event of the race on Sunday. It’s very different.

On Saturday, we get to speak to the team representatives, which is generally the Team Boss. But not all of them. In this case, it was 6 of the 10, in two 30-minute press conferences.

Leaving that press conference, I was not surprised by the crowd of fans this time. Becoming a veteran of this whole F1 Journalist Game.

Qualifying in the Media Centre is something you have to experience to see. It’s a group of journalists seated at tables in rows, watching TV, essentially. But also not really watching. Because everyone is working, pulling out nuggets from the session to incorporate into whatever they’re writing.

Fortunately, I don’t write “game summaries” with enforced deadlines, so I have a little more freedom.

And while media is definitely neutral, there are national rooting interests. The Spanish reporters want Fernando Alonso and Carlos Sainz to do well, for example. (As a side note, in Friday’s driver’s briefing, both Spanish drivers, as Madridistas, were asked questions about Real Madrid’s remontada against Manchester City. #HalaMadridYNadaMas).

When qualifying ends, there are choices to be made. The Top 3 drivers will hold a formal press conference in the press room, while all the drivers (including the Top 3) will eventually make their way through the Interview Pen.

I chose the Press Conference Room. I had seen that room (or a version of it) on TV so many times over the year, and the idea of sitting in a room with Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz, and Max Verstappen was too good of an opportunity to pass up.

With that said, I was in the minority. The Press Conference Room is largely empty. So did everyone else go to the Interview Pen?

No. Most stay in the Media Centre. With the Press Conference Room feed being played through speakers and into the Media Centre, the ideal place to write about the press conference is actually the Media Centre. Journalists working.

The highlight of my “journalist” day was definitely meeting with Mario Isola, the Director of Motorsports of Pirelli. He was running late, but that afforded me the opportunity to sit in Pirelli’s hospitality area and wait.

Several of the people working for Pirelli apologized to me for the lateness, and one employee tried to “corrupt” (his words) me with food and drink. We discussed the heat (not the basketball team), and he said it reminded him of Budapest.

Mario Isola was great.

But a side effect of the interview running late is I was able to see the F1 Paddock, empty, at night.

That moment of solitude, alone, in a Formula 1 Paddock at night, was the highlight of the entire weekend for me.

Sunday

Ironically, Sunday is where there is the least to do for a journalist.

At the Miami Grand Prix, there were 2 support races, one for the W Series and for the Porsche Sprint Challenge.

Outside of that, there is a lot of pomp, for fans.

There are sponsored events, a driver parade, a grid presentation. Fans have plenty of time to access fan zones and enjoy the day.

For me, it was a lot of waiting around for the race to start. Some journalists get grid access. Needless to say, I’m not one of those.

Finally, at 3:15, the national anthem. Land of the Free, Home of the Brave.

The race itself felt similar to qualifying in the Media Centre, everyone working away.

After it ended, I went down the Press Conference Room. I knew most journalists wouldn’t make that choice, but I wanted to be there, as my last official act this weekend.

Press conference over, I retrieved my gear from the Media Centre, and said good bye to the Formula 1 circus.

Not good bye to Hard Rock Stadium, of course. I’ll be seeing her in September. The Canes play Bethune-Cookman in 118 days. That won’t quite have the fanfare of a Formula 1 weekend.

But it’s home. Ain’t no place like it.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

The Miami Grand Prix – Max Masterclass | Hitting the Apex

Finally, after all the build-up, the race.

It’s kind of weird to have a sporting event after all the side shows surrounding it.

But the race is the reason we’re here. The last act in a play.

The Media Centre gets very empty about an hour before the race, as those with grid access can head out there. You can also walk around the Paddock and meet all kinds of celebrities. They’ll file back in later.

Secretly, I’m a bit nervous of things not going smoothly. This is a showcase for my city, and while everything has been handled amazingly to this point, a disaster of a race is enough to undo anything.

I’m waiting patiently for the Star-Spangled Banner. Racing is why I’m here.

It’s lights out and away we go!

Coming into the race, there was some concern that the Ferraris could control the race. Max Verstappen took care of that immediately by passing Carlos Sainz, to a series of oohs from the collected media.

But all was not lost for the Spanish fans in attendance. Fernando Alonso moved up 4 spots right from the start.

The Mercedes is down on speed this year, but finally this week there is some pace in it. Enter Lewis Hamilton. Formula 1’s greatest ever driver had a bad start, which means we’re treated to watching him eat up the field, with a series of overtakes.

After the opening segment, the race settles down until the first pit stop or first race altering incident. But not this time. Instead, Max Verstappen skinned Charles Leclerc and took the lead.

The Track

About half way through the race, it’s apparent that the track is excellent. You can overtake, but it is tricky enough where nothing is easy. A good mix of tire management, the ability to push, and also the need to concentrate through the tricky section.

When Verstappen pitted and came out in 2nd, it was all but over for the top spot. As Sainz pitted out of the lead, there was an issue. The Italians press were not amused.

After the round of pit stops, the top 4 settled in.

Despite the tracks ostensibly allowing for overtaking, the Red Bull of Verstappen appeared to be just too fast. With the pit stops done, and the race  settled in. Would something change that?

The Finale

The only battles on track at this point are not for points. 12th through 15th are nose to tail.

Which is the beauty of racing. There aren’t points at stake, but you can still watch 4 of the best drivers on earth tap dance around each other.

Could rain throw a curveball? It always looks like it might rain in Miami, so this doesn’t mean much of anything. We’ll see. There is not much time for rain to come in.

And then the crash.

Gasly and Norris collided, a safety car came out. That was the curveball we were looking for.

Red Bull pitted Sergio Perez and maintained 4th. He’s on the best tire now, with fresh tires. Advantage Checo.

10 lap sprint, tire strategies mixed.

This will be fun.

But it was actually anticlimactic at the top. Max continued to control the race. This just in, Max Verstappen is good.

And so is Carlos Sainz. At the very least, you expected Checo to get past him. And he did make one lunge. But Sainz smoothly regained the spot and held off Perez. Brilliance to get on the podium and a much needed points haul.

Ferrari and Red Bull will take this fight to Spain next.

One last Press Conference

The victory press conference. The Top 3.

By the time the drivers get here, they’re exhausted, having been through the media pens already. They still take time to answer questions respectfully.

Max Verstappen’s brilliance shone once again, as the next greatest driver in Formula 1 continues on his journey into the current greatest driver in Formula 1. He won the race with skill, strategy, and guile.

But the weekend? That belonged to Miami. Max called it an “incredible atmosphere,”  Charles Leclerc said the “organization was great,” and Carlos Sainz called it “mega.”

In a weekend with a lot of hype, Miami delivered. It always does.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

How Often Do You Look at a Man’s Shoes? – The Tires Powering Formula 1 | Hitting the Apex

Formula 1 is widely considered the highest form of Motorsport.

This is due to the extreme engineering, the financial outlay, and the caliber of drives.

But how often do you think about the tires?

And yes, I’m aware in Formula 1, they tend to adopt the British spelling of “tyres,” but I’m proudly American, so you’re getting “tires” here.

Formula 1 has a long, complicated history with tires.

And the task presented to Formula 1’s current tire supplier, Pirelli, is not as simple as building the “best” tire.

Tire Wars, Madness, and Farce

Over the history of Formula 1, there have been 8 tire manufacturers, and as many as 6 at one time in 1954 and 1958.

The last 2 decades have seen 3 tire manufacturers: Bridgestone, Michelin, and current tire manufacturer Pirelli.

Bridgestone ended 2 years as the sole supplier in 2001, and a Tire War ensued. With teams competing for every fraction of a second, choosing one tire manufacturer over the other could provide a remarkable competitive advantage, or disadvantage.

And without cost caps, Formula 1 exploded. Ferrari partnered with Bridgestone (via unlimited testing) to hone the tires exactly to their specification. Michelin opted for a faster, but less durable tire. Most teams opted for Michelin believing that Bridgestone tires really only worked best on Ferraris.

The United States Grand Prix in 2005 all but ended the Tire War. Michelin’s lack of durability, as well as the strange asphalt, meant that the tires were deemed unsafe for running. When the FIA and Michelin could not agree on a way to run their cars, the Michelin runners did the formation lap and pulled into the pits. The FIA’s relationship with Michelin was forever strained, and Michelin exited the sport a year later.

So if Michelin “lost” the Tire War, did Bridgestone win? Not exactly.

With the reintroduction of tire changes in 2006, there were two tire compounds: (1) the harder “prime” tire and (2) the softer “option” tire. The option tire was faster, but would ostensibly wear out quickly.

The issue is that the “option” tires were too good, often being so durable that outside of the forced pit stop (the 2 compound rule existed back then), it would be faster to run the entire race on “option” tires. Bridgestone (and Michelin prior to leaving the sport) had been tasked with building less durable tires, but were struggling to do so.

The Canadian Grand Prix That Changed Everything

The 2010 Canadian Grand Prix changed the way modern Formula 1 is designed. This great video from Autosport is worth a watch, and I will not plagiarize it here.

But as far as tires are concerned, they wore out at a much higher rate than normal, and teams had to adjust on the fly with complicated strategies.

Which made the racing better. Much better.

It was a Eureka moment for Formula 1 of sorts, accelerating the journey to tire manufactured tire inconsistency.

Bridgestone exited the sport after 2010, citing high costs. Formula 1 was looking for a new manufacturer to usher in this new era as they tried to transition from Tire War to Tire Wear

Pirelli – The Impossible Task and Amazing Results

A tire is first and foremost a safety device. It’s easy to lose focus on that, but with the rate a Formula 1 car is traveling, and the tires being the only thing that contacts the ground (with the exception being Red Bull, when they have a flexi-wing. That’s a deep cut for you F1 veterans), if they are unsafe in any way, the cars can’t run. Michelin proved this in the 2005 US Grand Prix.

But Pirelli’s task was not to produce the best quality, most durable, safest, or even fastest tire. It was to produce several different tires with different wear rates and pace, and get them in an optimal zone so that it could conceivably make sense to use any tire, depending on the strategy you go for.

Fans of modern Formula 1 probably won’t remember how challenging it was for Pirelli to get to this point. Early in the Pirelli Era, the tire rate was so rapid that being on the wrong tire could turn a driver into sitting duck. That can still happen today, but it’s mostly a result of strategy screw up.

As Pirelli developed their tires, they kept getting closer to the zone. But rules around tires were changing. Now, Pirelli had to select which compounds to take to the race, with C1 being the hardest and C5 being the softest.

When I spoke to Pirelli Director of Motorsport Mario Isola, he talked about the challenges Pirelli is able to overcome. With every circuit being a different asphalt, with different weather, and with Pirelli only allowed to have one tire range for the entire season, they are tasked with designing a tire that can run everywhere. Not optimized anywhere, but capable everywhere, while still acquiescing to the desire that the tires wear exactly the right amount.

Coming into a new race like this weekend’s Miami Grand Prix, there is no data for the track. Instead, Pirelli works with the gravel manufacturer to obtain samples and test the tires against it.

This year also added new, larger tires, which Pirelli has had to adjust to.

The remarkable thing is that incidents like the 2020 British Grand Prix with tire de-laminations are incredibly rare. The only discussion you’ll hear of the tires this weekend is around strategy and how to optimize pit stops versus pace versus tire wear.

And the reason for that is because Pirelli is successful in their task. More than a decade on from their re-entry into the sport (Pirelli was one of the original tire manufacturers at Formula 1’s inception), they have achieved the right balance of safety/durability, with wear, to allow teams to have pit stop variance and wide pit windows for optimal stops.

This race day, when you marvel at the amazing cars, and the skill of the drivers, take a moment to look at the cars’ shoes. They are second to none in modernity and engineering.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

Inside a Formula 1 Paddock | Hitting the Apex

A Formula 1 paddock is a fascinating place.

An imperfect an analogy is it closely resembles a mullet: Business in the front, party in the back.

The paddock sits behind the garage, where cars are serviced. In the front, the garage opens up the pit lane, where serious business happens.

But in the paddock area behind the garage, there is a mix of teams working and people partying like it’s 1999.

The juxtaposition of elite mechanics, engineers, and strategists plying their trade at the height of industry adjacent to the privileged few partying, needing to be “seen,” is as bizarre as it is spectacular.

As journalists, we are able to enter the Paddock prior to it opening to fans with VIP Access and Paddock Passes, and it is a shockingly serene place.

The Bizarrely Normal

Mercedes is the first paddock. This means they are also at the front of the pit lane, which can be an advantage. Mercedes earned this advantage by winning the Constructors Championship last year. And they pretty much go in team finish order from there. Haas sits at the end, almost off to the side, out of the way.

Across from garages are “hospitality” areas for each of the teams, and for Pirelli, Formula 1’s tire manufacturer (who also has a garage).

The best way to describe a hospitality area is it a combination break room for the teams and party room for the VIP members the team has invited.

And within the hospitality areas and garages, the VIPs want to be seen. The areas around Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren are teaming with people, trying to take selfies.

As you get down to Haas, it is almost deserted. This is not to say that Haas isn’t popular. Haas Team Boss Guenther Steiner remains one of the most popular people in the Paddock. They are the only American team, something they take pride in.

But people are there to be seen, and that means standing in front of the big boys.

The fan access is quite remarkable, if you’re willing to pay for it. A Paddock Club ticket (if you can find one), can be purchased for $18,900 on TicketSmarter. And what access do you get for the price of a Hyundai Venue?

Everything.

You’re free to wander around the Paddock (the garages and Pit Lanes are off limits, although you will have the ability to take a guided tour). And you know who else wanders the Paddock?

Drivers, Team Bosses, the teams themselves.

Drivers and Team Bosses trying to get from Hospitality (which, for them, is a place to unwind, grab a bite, relax) must pass through a maze of fans all wanting selfies.

What’s the point of just seeing the drivers? You have to be seen with the drivers.

And the drivers mostly oblige. The Team Bosses as well. Because again, $18,900.

For media, we have prescribed interview points where we can speak to people. So you’ll walk within feet of the famous drivers, and not really acknowledge it.

But the teams aren’t the only celebrities. Sky Sports, with coverage throughout the world, is a celebrity culture unto itself. And it is not uncommon to walk past Karun Chandhok on his way to an interview.

And then it dawns on you. Outside of the party goers, everyone else is at work. The pundits, the teams…they’re doing their jobs, as is all media.

Getting to the press conference area and interview pen, where we’re allowed to speak to drivers, involves navigating fans with drinks in hand, and TV crews doing live shots.

It’s a Small World After All

Outside of the oddity of people trying to work in a partying environment, the other thing that strikes you is how friendly the teams are with each other.

For fans of Formula 1, the attitude generally is to love your team with a passion and hate the other teams. They are the “enemy.”

The Paddock, however, paints a picture of camaraderie that you don’t really see when observing from a fan perspective.

With much of the world transitioning to remote work over the last few years, it is easy to sympathize. These are competitors, but they are also work colleagues that know each other and are friendly with each other. So when they see each other, it’s a great time to stop, have a chat, catch-up.

This extends to the Team Bosses prior to a press conference, swapping stories.

And there is a reason for that. Because for all of its glitz and glamour, Formula 1 is an expensive sport with low margins. Teams often operate at a loss, and many have failed over the years.

There are currently 10 teams on the grid. But there are a 134 teams that have failed.

F1’s recent moves with financial cost caps, and franchise/stakeholder ownership have moved everything towards stability. The last Formula 1 team to fail entirely (meaning cease to exist versus being bought out) was Manor in 2016. That level of stability is unprecedented in Formula 1.

And the reason for that stability is a shift away from an “every team for themselves” model to a “rising tide tips all boats” model. It’s something the team bosses took pride in when speaking about potentially adding an 11th team. They talked about revenue sharing, and whether the financials would justify it. This sort of collective thought would have been a foreign concept decades ago.

So while the teams compete on track, they want everyone to succeed off of it.

That friendliness is on display in the Paddock.

Formula 1 After Dark

After the days’ events are over, the Paddock returns to normal with a remarkable swiftness.

Nothing is out of place. It is immaculately clean.

The fans have long since been ushered out, surely heading to South Beach for the after party where they’ll spend the GDP of a small country. There are still some team personnel milling about. Formula 1’s imposed curfew means they are forced to relax for the evening, where in a bygone era they would pull an all-nighter working on the car.

There are some drivers still here. On Saturday night, I saw Kevin Magnussen casually chatting with a member of the Alpine team, his work done for the day.

Media are still allowed in the Paddock area at this point, and it does provide a glorious, night view.

When the weekend is over, the teams will pack up and leave, and move onto the next location, in this case, to Spain. Soon, there won’t be evidence of what took place here.

Just part of the bizarre and fascinating world behind the scenes of Formula 1.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

They Don’t Award Points on Saturday – Formula 1’s Probabilistic Approach | Hitting the Apex

A common driver cliche is that “they don’t award points on Saturday.”

Qualifying is great, putting yourself in a position to win the the race on Sunday. But without converting that position into a strong race finish, the ultimate goal of maximizing points during the weekend is not achieved.

(As an aside, with the new sprint race format which is being utilized at 3 races this year after being piloted at 3 races last year, it turns out they do award points on Saturday).

Formula 1 is about Math, Science, and Guts

Despite the high financial barrier to entry making it largely inaccessible to the masses, one of the allures of Formula 1 to a wide swath of fans is that there is something for everyone.

Formula 1 sits at the nexus of Math, Science, and the ever-fallible human existence. When we talk about analytics in other sports, what we’re talking about is basic, childhood arithmetic, compared to the effort put in by Formula 1.

Every eventuality has been played out and gamed out, the results simulated. The simulations (and car simulators) are so complicated that veteran driver Valtteri Bottas noted that because Alfa Romeo only relatively recently built a simulator, they are several stages behind Mercedes, Bottas’ former team, in simulator development.

But Formula 1 remains an inexact science.

An exercise in probability. Each micro-decision a team and driver makes throughout the course of a race alters that probability ever so slightly, and cumulatively alters it greatly as each of the 10 teams and 20 drivers are constantly making those decisions.

After all that data, all that information, all those simulations, you end up with a probability that eventually translates into the expected finish in the race.

This is meant to mitigate the chance of risk, given that is all accounted for in the probabilistic determinations.

So after the engineers have designed the car to within a millimeter of specifications to elicit the maximum lap time, and the mathematicians have figured out the optimal strategy built around race pace simulations, tire degradation simulations, and the expected behavior of opponents (among many other factors), an interesting thing happens.

Humans get involved. The drivers are human, the people on the pit wall making the decisions are human, the numbers inputted into the simulations required some human thought, and some assumptions.

Humans are fascinating because we are imperfect. And that imperfection is what lays to waste the best laid plans.

One second, you’re cruising your way to an 8th World Drivers Championship, the next second someone has crashed, the Race Director panics, and the title slips away. That’s racing, it’s what makes it simultaneously maddening and fascinating.

You’d Rather Start on Pole

With so much chance involved, how important is qualifying?

Formula 1, as we’ve discussed, is a sport of probability. Each place you finish further up the grid increases your probability of winning. The pole sitter wins roughly 40% of the races.

While that number is low all things being equal (my logical brain keeps telling me that starting in front would give you a greater than 50% chance of winning, but it turns out that this isn’t true), it dwarfs any other position’s probability. Again, it’s all about increasing the expected position of finish, and pole gives you the highest possible.

As you go further back down the grid, the probability of winning drops rapidly. An (admittedly dated) 2000 analysis from Autosport analyzing start position conversions to wins in the mid-90s found that over 95% of winners start in the Top 6.

Probability.

Starting at the front also brings with it mental stress relief. A driver can focus on his race, and is not worried about being held up by an opponent and having that disrupt his strategy. This is provided he maintains the lead at the start, of course. Pole position is only as good as your acceleration off the line. That mental stress relief is increased if two teammates lock out the front row, which is what happened in the Miami Grand Prix’s Saturday Qualifying.

Now you can really strategize, and give some deference to each other, so you don’t crash. This is a huge advantage over having a non-teammate on the front row next to you.

Pole at this weekend’s Miami Grand Prix, however, might be a little less important. With the expectation of an incident-laden race throwing off all the calculations. If there is going to be a red flag at some point, if there are going to be multiple safety cars, how and when do you account for that? You can’t really, it’s just hope for the best.

So what do the driver’s think? The top 3 finishers in Saturday’s qualifying were Charles Leclerc (Ferrari), Carlos Sainz (Ferrari), and Max Verstappen (Red Bull).

They all commented on the track issues that should lead to an unpredictable race. Leclerc and Sainz lamented the lack of grip off the racing line, with Sainz calling it “slippery.” Sainz and Verstappen both commented on the lack of time spent doing long runs, with Verstappen in particular saying it’s difficult to drive “not really knowing the limits” after having only done “four or five laps” in Friday’s practice.

But to a man, when discussing the importance of starting position, they universally reinforced that importance. Leclerc said it was “better” to start ahead and in particular with both Ferraris on the front row. Verstappen said he would also “prefer to start ahead.”

Veterans of the probabilistic battles of the past. They know that in racing, in general, and on a new track, specifically, anything can happen. But they also know that in a sport where you’re choosing between low probability scenarios, any advantage gained is worth having. In a sport where millions of dollars are spent trying to find hundredths of a second, the opportunity to increase the probability of your expected finishing position is worth its weight in gold.

Ferrari has the advantage, the odds in their favor.

But they don’t award points on Saturday.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003

A Delicate Balance Awaits Teams Heading into Qualifying | Hitting the Apex

There is a cliche in all motorsports, that in particular applies to Formula 1.

To finish first, you first must finish.

The new track at the Miami Grand Prix was described as “challenging” by several drivers.

Through 3 practice sessions, that has proven to be the case with each session disrupted by red flags, crashes, and spins.

McLaren CEO Zak Brown called it a “proper” track and it surely is that.

And it is that properness coupled with the strange asphalt and new layout that is testing these drivers to the limits, and in several cases, over the limits.

Track Evolution

As a Grand Prix weekend goes on, especially on a new track, lap times drop.

This is because the track goes through a process called “rubbering in” where the tires, as part of the process of wearing out, leave rubber on the track. That rubber then allows the track to have more grip. By the time you get to qualifying and certainly the race, the rubber laid down on the racing line over the weekend is actually more important to grip than the actual surface itself.

And therein lies the conundrum.

As the track evolves, and the lap times drop, the best time quickly becomes the worst time.

Ideally, you will put in your competitive qualifying laps just as the checkered flag is being waved, maximizing the grip.

The problem with that?

Rules state that you must start a “flying” (aka qualifying) lap before the checkered flag waves. And in order to do that, you must do an “out lap,” which is the lap from the pit box around the track to the start-finish line.

But an out lap is not just simply about driving around to the start-finish line. It is a tedious process of slowly warming up the cars tires, and creating the optimal gap between your car and the car in front of you so you are not impacted by disturbed air. And it can take several minutes, when done properly, to get the car is in the “zone” at the start-finish line, with optimal tire temperature and clear air in front.

Delicate Dance

The problem at a new track, especially a challenging one, is the complexity around the question of when to send the cars out for hot laps is increased exponentially.

The track evolution on a new track is much higher than on an old, rubbered in track, so there is not really an option to “bank” an early fast lap and think it will hold up.

But with repeated offs and red flags over the 3 practice sessions, a team cannot be comfortable leaving the lap until the end. While a red flag would stop the qualifying clock (unlike in practice, where it keeps running), if there is not enough time to drive a proper out lap and get to the start-finish line prior to the checkered flag after the session resumes, the clock stoppage won’t matter.

And even something as simple as a slight off from a competitor causing a yellow flag will force a driver to have to abandon his lap.

The start-stop nature of all 3 practices would lend itself to a continuation of that in qualifying. And those practice disruptions impacted the team’s setup programs already, with 3 drivers having lead the 3 practice sessions.

Whoever sends their cars out at the right time, whether via skill or luck, may end up leading the cars away in the race tomorrow.

A fascinating qualifying awaits in Miami, and anything can happen.

Vishnu Parasuraman is a contributor for @FiveReasonsSports. He covers the Miami Hurricanes  for Sixth Ring Canes and Formula 1 for Hitting the Apex. You can follow him on twitter @vrp2003