Tag Archive for: Miami Heat

Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Atlanta

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The Miami Heat lost to the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night, and well, it was a wild finish.

Miami didn’t even seem like they’d be in that position, but they made a late push to only trail 2 with 10 seconds left and the ball in their possession. A Jimmy Butler corner three was the result, while it felt like that was the last option on that play.

Anyway, here are some general takeaways from this one…

#1: Patchy stretches to finish first half: turnovers, inability to get into actions, blending into defense.

To touch on some negatives of Miami’s early play tonight, the stretch in the second quarter where Atlanta went on a 14-3 run showcased some things. For one, turnovers can’t happen in general, but essentially against teams that don’t mind getting out and run. The reason for the turnovers could be thrown in a few different directions. The easy thing to say is that it was visible they couldn’t flow into their offense as smoothly, but why was that the case? No Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro, the highest usage guards on the team, means the usage rates raise for others. Gabe Vincent is obviously one, but an interesting one was Caleb Martin. He’s been given the keys to fill every role, but that one did not feel necessary to trigger actions. Those issues began to lead into defensive struggles during that stretch, which is the bigger picture problematic element.

#2: It’s not specific schematics with Max Strus. It’s a mindset.

Watching Max Strus go for 15 points in the first half leads to some individual game takeaways with him. There’s nothing different or outrageous about the way he’s used or goes about his offense, but his mindset is the only thing that is different. For one, I don’t think he’s ever seen his on-ball defender. Why is that? Well, he’s never had time to take note of him when the ball is in his hands, because that ball is going up as soon as he sees a green light opportunity. But when dissecting more scheme specifics, his cutting has been a very useful, surprising element that makes him more of a weapon within Miami’s movement offense. He’s instinctive. When he cuts, it’s in the moment. When he shoots, there’s nothing else on his mind. And well, that’s a pretty great trait for a shooter of his caliber.

#3: Pick and roll scoring threats anyone?

When Bam Adebayo was out, the element they missed within their offense was that rolling pull-up threat, since no other front-court mate could provide that. Now, without Lowry and Herro, they showed to be lacking the ball-handler scoring element within the PnR. Gabe Vincent has emerged immensely in that space, really reading situations well when the defender goes under a screen, that it’s his turn to pull. But looking across the roster tonight, aside for Jimmy Butler who wasn’t showcasing it often, they just didn’t have that scoring threat within that action. That was why we saw more hand-offs, Adebayo perimeter surveying on cuts, and usual perimeter ball movement. Their hands were tied behind their back without that head of the snake, but obviously adjustments are the story of their season.

#4: Bam Adebayo-Omer Yurtsevem?

The Bam Adebayo-Omer Yurtseven front-court combination has been a hot topic in terms of lineup projections recently, and well, we saw some of it tonight. After PJ Tucker went out early, they were forced to move in this direction, which as I’ve said is the one scenario where it makes a ton of sense. Now, with what we saw, the defensive flexibility is definitely intriguing. It’s something Adebayo is very comfortable with, as Yurtseven drops in the pick and rolls and Adebayo can switch out to anyone without worry about the backside or offensive rebounding. But as great as this is, it’s not all rose pedals as expected. The offensive spacing is still heavily forced. And it was clear Erik Spoelstra would agree, as most of the sets being run were double off-ball screens with those two, so the strong-side interior would be clear. There’s some good and some bad, which is exactly what happens when you’re filling a hole in the lineup. It won’t be the last we see of it.

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#5: They had a chance…but couldn’t capitalize.

No Kyle Lowry. No Tyler Herro. No PJ Tucker. That was the story for Miami in this one, as their offensive showing, as noted prior, was just very underwhelming. Add onto that, Jimmy Butler was just not playing like himself on the offensive end, simply lacking that shot creation that was so heavily missed in this one, capping it off with a missed alley-oop layup to take the lead late. Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, and Max Strus are consequently relied on so much more, but they did their part in a general sense. We so often hear the phrase “We have enough,” but it didn’t feel like that was the case with the top heavy guys either dropping out or not playing to their standards. Beating a team twice less than 2 weeks ago is usually an awkward formula, and we saw that from a desperate Atlanta Hawks team. But ultimately, they had a chance, but couldn’t fully take advantage late following the impressive come-back. Plus, down 2 on the last play, a fading, contested Butler triple wouldn’t have been my choice.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Blazers

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The Miami Heat took down the Portland Trail Blazers at home on Wednesday night, behind pure role player domination and Bam Adebayo late takeover.

Many guys had their moments, including Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent, but Adebayo took over with no Kyle Lowry, no Tyler Herro, and no Jimmy Butler late.

That’s big time.

So, here are five takeaways from this one…

#1: Some Bam Adebayo flashes of total offensive awareness.

Bam Adebayo was the topic of last game but in more of a forceful sense. On his return day, he showcased some defensive sustainability but wasn’t providing the total offensive weaponry as expected. Tonight, though, we saw the flashes that many want to see. To begin the game, Duncan Robinson ends around for a DHO, but his defender is totally fronting him. Adebayo turns, dribbles, and pulls up right into a jumper that went right through the net. That’s the guy many have been awaiting, and that wasn’t the only first half possession that was seen. On the other side of the floor, I saw something that I’ve been saying must be seen more often. Switching will always be number one on their list when he’s on the floor, but blitzing is necessary with his athletic build and quick speed. Late in the second quarter, that blitz led to an easy turnover, which is even easier when Caleb Martin is the other on-ball guy spearheading it. But his late offensive takeover iced it, and it was all about Adebayo’s mindset.

#2: Wait, Jimmy Butler ejected?

Jimmy Butler definitely felt he was getting fouled often in the first half. He’s not one that barks at the refs possession after possession like his point guard counterpart, but something flipped after an and-1. He looked to be sending a message to the baseline referee as he went to let him know in his face about the fouling spree, which totally warranted a technical. Emphasis on “a” technical. As he turned to walk away, still talking to some teammates around him, the second official slid in to give him his second technical. That one, not as warranted in my opinion. Was Butler that upset about the no-calls? I doubt it. As I said, it felt like more of a message that Butler wasn’t expecting to end in ejection. Either way, extra rest isn’t the worst thing for the Heat’s star player.

#3: The bench mob takeover.

Speaking on more of the specifics of the first half, it was more of the “others” that shined, and more importantly, kept Miami afloat. As the starters lacked that offensive chemistry to create similar looks, the bench group came in facilitating that ball at an elite level. Gabe Vincent-Kyle Guy-Max Strus-Caleb Martin-Dewayne Dedmon is quite the lineup to rely on for a good stretch of time, but well, it worked. Martin and Strus ended the first half with 11 points a piece, each doing it in different ways. Strus more of that ignitable spark that gave Miami that extra push when needed offensive to finish possessions, and Martin more of that persistent spot scorer who can utilize terrific footwork, the occasional three, and pure athleticism down the lane to put points on the board. This grouping was intriguing, but I don’t know if I can say it was surprising. I feel like I’ve seen this same show for 44 games.

#4: Another Erik Spoelstra third quarter adjustment.

One of Erik Spoelstra’s best coaching games this season was the home match-up against Utah earlier in the season. Why is that? Well, he made one single adjustment that turned the game around in Miami’s favor. Tonight, he made a similar move. Miami’s back to strong switching with Bam Adebayo back, but that also can be worked to their advantage with PJ Tucker on the floor. And after Jusef Nurkic was really dominating the interior, Spoelstra shifted the match-ups to stick Tucker on CJ McCollum and Adebayo still on Nurkic. What does that mean? Well, every screening action ended with Adebayo on McCollum and Tucker on Nurkic. That’s a win for Miami on both fronts, even if rebounding standards scare you. That one move put Miami right back in it to finish the third quarter strong, as Martin exploded on the other end.

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#5: Gabe Vincent’s improvements are no joke.

While it may feel like Caleb Martin deserves his own section after the big time push he gave them in the third, he’s been discussed enough upon his outstanding efforts. But somebody I touched on briefly that must be discussed more is Gabe Vincent. Finding rotation minutes for him aside, we’re witnessing a guy that has made continuous jumps in areas that weren’t even being focused on from outsiders. As many were just speaking on the perimeter shot falling, he’s taken that bet and raised it. Vincent has improved both his handles and vision to a completely other level, that make him quite the NBA level player, as he took over to begin the fourth with continuous feeds to Dewayne Dedmon. And well, defense hasn’t even been mentioned after he was stealing, deflecting, and fronting anybody that came his way. He’s not Kyle Lowry, but he’s treated as such when Lowry is out.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Raptors

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The Miami Heat took down the Toronto Raptors on Monday night, and it was quite the opposite of last game.

In the Bam Adebayo return game, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro led the way, Caleb Martin provided the spark, and PJ Tucker closed with a big shot.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: My early game Bam Adebayo evaluation: dominating on one end.

When a guy with the build of Bam Adebayo comes back from a 7 week absence, of course one part of his game is the fastest to come back: defense. The offensive stuff early honestly showed some first game jitters and excitement with some easy drops, but they were also forcing stuff to him as expected. But defensively, he picked up right where he left off. Against a very unique Toronto Raptors team with length and quickness, rotations must be super crisp when switching to this degree. And well, they were. No matter when they made that feed inside to that final pass into the paint, Adebayo was always lurking to muck up that end result. He’s a rotational monster, and it was good to see his speed wasn’t lacking. He’s been conditioning for some time now, so it isn’t surprising, but locking back down on that end for this next stretch is essential.

#2: More Tyler Herro talk: an important addition.

Something I’ve talked about since the beginning of the season is Tyler Herro’s developments against different coverages. He’s found outlets for each one, but a single match-up always caused trouble: length. And aside from a team like Cleveland with never-ending bigs, Toronto is as unique as it gets, especially when the defensive game-plan is to swarm him. Early on something was noticed: he just has to work so much harder for every single bucket than usual. The thing about that was he was working hard to find the gaps, and he was dominating in those gaps. He found the dead spots on the floor with the Raptors hedging super hard, and it’s hard to slow him down from there. Game impact is one thing, but making that much of a jump mid-season is a completely other thing.

#3: The difference in the hand-off.

The one thing on everyone’s mind heading into this one is how will Duncan Robinson respond. They inserted him back into the starting lineup for a potential Bam Adebayo revival with his shooting, and we saw some positive trends there. But when looking at the hand-off specifically, what changes depending on the big feeding Robinson? Well, I picked up on some things. Bam Adebayo sizing up on the strong side with some between the leg dribbles in the second quarter, as Robinson flies up the baseline shortly after. Adebayo doesn’t turn immediately, he gives one last size up dribble then hands it off to Robinson for a smooth transition. Bucket. When watching guys like Omer Yurtseven or Dewayne Dedmon run similar things recently, it’s a full body turn for defenses to read and pick their poison. Now, it’s quicker. It can surprise you. And there are more versatile threats. That isn’t why Robinson has struggled before, but there’s a noticeable difference among that grouping.

#4: Jimmy Butler’s all-around display: a career trend.

After essentially the worst shooting game of Jimmy Butler’s career, going 1 for 11 from the field, he followed it up like he usually does. With aggressive scoring and total all-around play. He was filling up that stat-sheet on a night where it felt like he was forcing things many possessions to get Adebayo going, and rightfully so. But seeing Adebayo back meant a shifting role for PJ Tucker, and we saw a bit of a Jimmy Butler safety blanket added to the arsenal. Tucker has been plugged around in a ton of different places, but we saw a lot of dunker spot reps tonight. That means when Butler is dissecting pick and rolls like he was tonight, he’s going to find that trusted roamer when his defender begins to ball watch. Butler was the steady hand tonight, but more big picture, the offensive combo of Butler and Tucker is brewing.

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#5: Caleb. Martin. Isn’t. Leaving. The. Rotation.

It’s just as simple as that headline reads. I’ve talked about the play of Caleb Martin in almost every takeaways piece, but the same ending is sustained: Caleb Martin has climbed the ladder, and he’s not climbing back down. There are good defenders in this league, but the current run that Martin is on isn’t normal. Shutting down elite guard after elite guard. Or at least slowing them down. Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Trae Young, Fred VanVleet, etc. Even if the stat-sheet doesn’t show that with that match-up, he just alters game-plans night in and night out. The fact that he can pressure the ball in this way is just something else at this level. Plus, he’s been shooting the three-ball in a way that wasn’t expected, and has provided rim pressure in surprising fashion. He’s a home crowd spark. Big play after big play, and well, he’s here to stay.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Philly

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The Miami Heat fell short to the Philadelphia 76ers on the second night of a back to back. Duncan Robinson and Max Strus shot the ball poorly, Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler couldn’t get it going, and offense just wasn’t being generated enough.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Omer Yurtseven comes out dominating.

The match-up between Omer Yurtseven and Joel Embiid went in a total different direction to begin this one. While it seemed like Dewayne Dedmon is the more physical body to slow down Embiid, they stayed with Yurtseven, and man did it pay off. Not only did he semi-handle Embiid defensively, but he was the primary offensive threat to kick off this game. Hitting pockets when they blitzed Jimmy Butler, planting himself in the dead spots of the drop, and continuing to develop his chemistry with Kyle Lowry in the pick and roll. It felt like this was the final showcase for Yurtseven before Bam Adebayo returned Monday, but he’s only making the new rotation decisions harder. It’s a good problem, but still a problem.

#2: Caleb Martin is constantly everywhere. Emphasis on everywhere.

Caleb Martin is a continued conversation piece in these articles, but tonight just tied a bow on all of it. Simply, he’s everywhere. Always. On both ends. One play where he was the sole trailer for Jimmy Butler on the break led to an easy bucket for Martin, and that is the definition of his play. Reliable, energetic, and always in the right spots. We always talk about him plugging the role of Butler, but it needs to be said that he has plugged the role of everybody at one point or another. PJ Tucker, Max Strus, etc. His versatility speaks volume, and this isn’t just a two-way player overplaying his value. This is a rotation player on a contending team. And I think he will be here for a while longer after this season.

#3: A different halftime position. A better halftime position. But still couldn’t close it out.

The Atlanata Hawks were up 70-64 at the half on Friday night, while Miami led 50-43 on Saturday. Obviously the fact that they were leading in this one puts them in a better spot, but take a look at the numbers from both games through 24 minutes. Yeah, tonight was definitely much more of a Miami Heat game, but ultimately, it still came around and hurt them. Erik Spoelstra and company were not pleased with their defensive showing in the first half on Friday, but tonight was much better. Forcing Joel Embiid to make that kick-out as they helped down majorly, but the key with that is they were banking on strong rotations. And after that was problematic against Atlanta, it was clearly a focus heading into this one. But like I said, the other end was the problem now.

#4: Rotations are changing. Scheme could be changing.

To take a slight step away from the true specifics from this one, there are some things that must be noted as we pick on some trends. For one, after Miami seemed to struggle with the 10 man rotation last night, they shrunk it down to a 9 man rotation tonight, as expected. That meant Gabe Vincent got squeezed, and as good as Yurtseven has played, he feels to be next. As Bam Adebayo returns, not only will the rotation shift, but the offensive game-plan will shift. Spoelstra won’t just totally flip things back to pre-injury, but it’ll clearly be mixed in. Butler’s mid-post possessions will be split 50/50 with Adebayo, Lowry’s passing demeanor will be much more lob/pocket mode, and most of all, they will be looking for takeover Adebayo. We’ve seen Yurtseven do it at times, and Adebayo will need to pick that up and expand.

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#5: Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry lag behind in scoring column. 

For most of this game, you would look over to the stat sheet and see that Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry were 6th and 7th on the team in scoring, which is pretty odd in a close game against a very hot Philly team to say the least. To be honest, that sentiment says a lot about the guys I’ve already discussed in this piece. Guys like Martin, Yurtseven, and Tucker just really kept them afloat in times of need, as both the shooters in Robinson and Strus had very rough shooting nights from deep. This wasn’t like the usual Butler performance, which is why it’s more eyes on him aside from the Robinson talk, but I feel like he got the shots that he usually gets but couldn’t knock them down. It happens, but that’s kind of the difference in a game like this.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Atlanta

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The Miami Heat take down the Atlanta Hawks in dramatic fashion. Jimmy Butler closes it out with an acrobatic finish.

Anyway, here are five takeaways from this one…

#1: Max Strus, as a starter once again, comes out scorching.

Max Strus and Duncan Robinson have been linked together for some time as another shooter was rising the charts on this Heat roster, but now it’s an either/or thing. Strus has gotten the start over the last few, and rightfully so. For one, as I’ve mentioned before, Robinson and Tyler Herro have shown to be playable together for longer stints. And secondly, there’s a specific offensive combo that has looked seamless when they share the floor: it begins with Max Strus and ends with Jimmy Butler. Aside from IG comment trolling, there’s something there with those two offensively, and combine that with an unconscious shooter at the moment who seems like he never misses his first shot. It’s something to monitor, but Strus is the reason Miami got out to an early lead.

#2: Miami finding offensive outlets against familiar themes early, but other things stall.

Talking offense in the first half is a bit interesting considering the Atlanta Hawks put up 70 points on the Heat in that span, but some things were noticeable. For starters, the Heat began adjusting to the adjustments. As Miami loves to dish out that 2-3 zone, they received it a ton tonight. They caused some mishaps to begin, but a lineup change got them out of that real quick. PJ Tucker at the five, Jimmy Butler at the four, and planting Butler right in the middle of that zone to dissect. That’s the formula. The issue was that other things were breaking down, and it begins with a good plan, but poor execution. Hunting Trae Young is great, but not when it gets in the way of the offensive game-plan. That’s what happened in that second quarter specifically.

#3: More Tyler Herro blossoming flashes?

Tyler Herro in the first half wasn’t the greatest on paper, since he had a -20 plus-minus, which is hard to read with the total score flip in that first half from starters to bench. But when focusing on the positive side of things, it’s another one of those games where the minor improvements stick out. For one, there were about three straight possessions in that second quarter where he cooked the entire Hawks defense, but the end result shot just ended up missing. The key there was that he can create for himself and others, while most of those plays weren’t even using a screen. Also, he’s bothered Trae Young over this two game stretch. This isn’t saying he is locking him up, but Herro has looked like a much improved defender when getting that match-up: moving his feet, leveraging his body, etc. Something to keep an eye on.

#4: An Omer Yurtseven third quarter push.

As Miami opened up the second half, they were looking for that next offensive push. Could Strus explode again? Would aggressive Lowry make an appearance? Does Butler enter takeover mode? Nope. Instead, they all saw what was being given, and kept feeding Omer Yurtseven in every single crevice. Post play mismatches, easy rolling lob passes, and some mid-range flip shots to round it out. 10 points in the quarter only halfway through was quite the boost to get from a player like that, but it’s great to see him taking advantage of things on that side of the floor. Time is limited with Bam Adebayo set to return on Monday, but that’s not to say opportunities won’t continue to rise. This is a very odd season, but with a fully healthy front-court, Dewayne Dedmon is in front of him in that line.

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#5: Mixing up the match-ups.

Tonight was pretty much a defensive mess aside from the first few minutes of the first quarter. But as it went down to the wire in the fourth, we saw Miami picking up on some things defensively. For one, they found the place to set-up Kyle Lowry on that end, which was guarding Danilo Gallinari. The reason that was so important is him being able to play up against bigger perimeter players, since that allows guys like Tucker or Caleb Martin to guard Trae Young. They also made the adjustment that was fully expected to place Tucker at the 5 once again, since the way they were being picked on defensively needed to be shifted. From a more big picture sense, that’s not something we will see much of since Bam Adebayo will close every game, but they will have options.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Hawks

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The Miami Heat took down the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night in intense fashion.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Could that have been Tyler Herro’s most impressive stint of his career?

Sixteen points, eight assists, eighteen minutes. That was Tyler Herro’s first half stat-line, and that doesn’t even almost tell the full story. For starters, the Heat were just playing some bad basketball to kick this game off, and that continued until, well, Herro trotted to the scorer’s table. His scoring popped out immediately, and you can always tell the way it’s trending with the manner he plays at. A quick split off of a double for a pull-up bank shot just put that on display in film form. His passing is another aspect that has taken a jump that can’t be described. Part of it is pure vision, but most if it is now being able to physically makes the passes. Lastly, that was the best half of defense I’ve seen him play. Not just because of a monstrous chase-down block, but the way he moved his feet on the ball. He got the switch on Trae Young and scored on one end, as Young tried to retaliate in similar fashion on the other end. Key word tried. Herro cut him off 3 times in a row, as he kicked it out for a three that bricked off the rim. Just an insane burst from Herro tonight.

#2: Duncan Robinson silently forming a bench tandem.

As I continue to talk about some of the bench notes, it must be noted that the reserves tonight were basically a second starting lineup. Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Dewayne Dedmon, and Herro all entered off the bench, just further showcasing the depth of this team. But when looking at Robinson specifically, this feels like it’s trending more toward long-term than a current rotational shift. The reason: it’s working…really well. For starters, Robinson’s looks aren’t shifting in any way. Defenses are still drenched on top of him, and a hand-off guy like PJ Tucker is usually on the floor. But what has changed my thoughts on this working all of a sudden? Well, once again, look at Tyler Herro. It was always about their ability to play together, and with Herro’s recent passing surge, it has looked flawless with a constant safety net sitting next to him. And most of all, it’s an immediate stagger for Erik Spoelstra even when starters return.

#3: Adjustment time strikes again for Erik Spoelstra.

As I talked about last game, Erik Spoelstra made a major shift in the offense. Instead of working everything through Tucker per usual, he handed the keys to Omer Yurtseven. And it worked to perfection. But as he tried a similar thing to start tonight, it was quite the opposite of the game against Phoenix. Not only were shots not falling, but actions weren’t being triggered with the jumbled up bodies in the half-court. So, as many teams in this league do already, Spo looked in a total different direction again: strictly perimeter play. It’s not the worst idea when you’re without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, and it’s definitely not a bad idea when you can stick defenders like Trae Young in every action. And as I keep stating, he leaned on Herro just playing off his own rhythm, and that’s how shots were generated. Less structure, more production. Sometimes rough nights call for that formula.

#4: The Caleb Martin-Max Strus experiment.

Max Strus and Caleb Martin always seem to be grouped together on this team. Both are next up on the starter filler list when guys go down. Both have elevated their play this season in ways that it’s hard to imagine eliminating them from the rotation. But as much as similarities strike in that sense, their overall play hits me as so drastically different, in a good way. And not just one is a shooter and the other is an explosive attacker. As the second half opens up, Strus goes on a run to really put the score out of reach right out the gate. In the blink of an eye, he hits you with a couple threes before you can react. But Martin on the other hand is the marathon guy. He slowly chips away in the scoring column, with feisty tip-ins when shots don’t drop, an occasional three when offense isn’t flowing, and can take you in isolation in a broken possession. And both are equally important. They need both that instinctive spark and that long distance runner who will chip away, and they’ve gotten each of those things at an extremely high level this season.

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#5: Dewayne Dedmon is back, and he’s not leaving.

Omer Yurtseven has been incredible for this Heat team in this recent stretch, but I think some of it needs to end there. The record rebound nights are fantastic, but when talking rotation roles with a healthy roster, he has some spots to jump. Seeing Dewayne Dedmon return tonight just felt like a healthy reminder of what it’s like to have a big of pure solidity and consistency. He gets you enough boards, provides some of the most picture perfect “role” type offensive play with the surrounding pieces, and has generally been extremely available. Plus, as the Herro conversation continues in this piece, the pick and roll combo with Dedmon seems as crisp as any two man game on the roster. Like I said, Yurtseven has been great, and can continue to be plugged in when needed, but right now, he’s a developmental piece of this team while Dedmon is the big man lock.

 

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5 Takeaways from the Heat’s Second Quarter of the Season

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40 games into the NBA season and at the time of writing, the Miami Heat are currently sitting at 3rd in the eastern conference, despite losing Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo for a combined 39 games.

The focal point of these “Quarterly Takeaways” articles is ultimately to find trends that are valuable for the Heat in the regular season and somewhat predictive of the Heat’s potential success or shortcomings when the playoffs come around. Unfortunately, due to injuries and COVID, some of the trends found might not have any bearing on playoff success but will absolutely impact the Heat in this regular season and continue into the 2022-23’ season.

Here are some takeaways from the Heat’s second quarter of the season…

(A 21 game sample size was used ranging from 11/26/21 until 1/12/22)

1. Kyle F****** Lowry

When Butler and Adebayo went down, it was a foregone conclusion that the Heat would freefall down the Eastern Conference standings. A top-heavy team losing it’s two best players for a prolonged period of time is a potential death sentence for a team like Miami. But then we got to see Kyle Lowry, in his purest form, he doesn’t need to score 30 points every night, he doesn’t need to shoot hyper-efficiently (although it does help), all Lowry needs is the ball in his hands and the trust from his coaches and teammates that he will make the right play and put the team in a position to succeed. The offense, now built around Kyle Lowry, has changed into a solar system where Kyle Lowry is the sun and the other 4 players are planets in perpetual motion. The emphasis on motion around Lowry and Lowry finding the open man has led the Heat to the 5th most assists over the last 21 games

In the absence of other stars, many have stepped up in terms of production, but Lowry has been the one to take a step forward in nearly every individual advanced metric for the point guard position.

As shown in the chart above, Lowry has improved across the board in Usage %, Assist % and TS%. When called upon to be “the guy” Lowry has had the ball in his hands more, increased his assist production by about 20% and gone from “league average” to “Standard Kyle Lowry” as a scorer, from an efficiency perspective.

Lowry is a player who’s impact goes far beyond the box score, however, seeing notable statistical improvements from a shaky start is a breath of fresh air for Heat fans who might’ve been worried about the 85 million dollar commitment the Heat made to the soon-to-be 36 year old. A Lowry-centric offense means a ton of movement, both on and off the ball, which brings me to the next takeaway.

2. Analytic Ball?

An offense where the players are constantly moving and the ball mirrors player movement, pass then screen away, set hammer screens for corner 3’s, run Spain Pick-and-Roll (Occasionally), make good entry passes, drive and kick, put emphasis on moving the ball inside and out on nearly every possession, all of the things that you want to see an offense do, the Heat are doing.In spite of all of those great things, The Heat’s success is being chalked up to “analytic ball” by Eddie Johnson, former NBA standout and current color analyst for the Phoenix Suns.

Some salty announcer may foolishly attribute the Heat’s improved style of play to analytics, I will attribute it to coach Spo and general common sense. Butler, Adebayo, and Morris are all players who operate in the Mid-Post and do a lot of their scoring in the mid-range area or at the rim. Does it make sense for an offense led by Lowry, Herro, Tucker, Robinson, Vincent, Martin and Strus to play a physical “grind you down” offense? Absolutely not. Coach Spo understands this as well and has used movement to mitigate the lack of self-creating talent, while maximizing the level of complementary shooting talent with the playmakers that are Lowry, Herro and Tucker.

Since November 26th, the Heat have averaged 26.8 assists per game (5th most) and have completely changed their shot diet.

The Heat have limited their shots that the defense is comfortable with, Mid-range and short touch shots in the paint, and traded them in for a more methodical approach that might take more time and effort every possession, but fits the 3-point shooting skill set of the current talent on the roster.

This season might be Erik Spoelstra’s masterpiece for a multitude of reasons, but one of the reasons why almost any player has been able to come in and contribute is Spo isn’t asking them to do what the other guys do, he tells them to do what they are good at. Yes, very simple, but it’s something that some NBA coaches struggle with because they want to win their way. Spo simply just wants to win.

3. We got shooters… again.

Part of what made the Heat’s ceiling so frightening early in the season is the ability to win without the 3-point shot falling. The main reason that the Heat have been able to win games recently is the simple fact that the shots are falling, at an elite level. The emphasis on the 3-point shot has paid off in a big way as Miami has shot 39.9% on 38.8 3PA per game.

Of course the team shooting is reflective of the individual shooting, so here are some individual performances from 3 over the last 21 games.

Dewayne Dedmon: 56.3% on 1.1 Attempts per game

PJ Tucker: 48% on 3.3 Attempts per game

KZ Okpala: 44.4% on 1.4 attempts per game

Caleb Martin: 44.2% on 3.7 attempts per game

Max Strus: 42.9% on 7.8 attempts per game

Gabe Vincent: 39.2% on 6.4 attempts per game

Duncan Robinson: 38.4% on 8.4 attempts per game

Tyler Herro: 37.5% on 6.5 attempts per game

Kyle Lowry: 34.6% on 6.7 attempts per game

Will this hot shooting continue for the remaining 42 games of the season? Doubtful. Quite frankly, I expect the return of Butler, Adebayo, and eventual re-integrations of Oladipo and Morris to give the Heat a bit of a shooting slump.

Over the last 21 games the unwritten mantra of the Heat from the 3 point line has been “Solid shooters should only take good shots, Great shooters should take any shot” and it has worked out nearly perfectly. The most important takeaway from this shooting stretch is the Heat surrounding their non-shooting stars with a plethora of solid-to-great shooters that can do more than just shoot… well, most of them. These elite percentages will inevitably drop, but as long as the process remains the same, the Heat should be in great shape offensively.

4. The Defense Firm of Vincent & Martin.*

In terms of production over expectation, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin have easily been the most surprising players on the Heat. While we could easily gush over their offensive contributions, what they bring on the defensive end has been nothing short of extraordinary.

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Starting with Gabe, an aggressive PoA defender who doesn’t allow ball-handlers to comfortably get to their spots and has a combination of strength and quickness that allows him to fight through screens routinely, making him a tough matchup for any team that runs their offense through their guard. Gabe also has a willingness to switch onto forwards and centers and make them work to get positioning on mismatches, a valuable tool considering the Heat’s defensive scheme. While I do believe defense is more dependent on the eye test than anything else, the numbers do support Gabe’s case to not only be a good defender, but one of the best on the team. Over the course of the season the Heat have 15 3-man lineups that have played over 100 minutes together and posted a defensive rating of 100 or less, 9 of those 15 lineups include Gabe Vincent. The next closest is Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro with 6.

There isn’t a statistical case to be made for Martin to be a top defender on the Heat, but anyone who’s watched him this season knows defense is clearly his forte. The ability to guard 1-3 and be able to match the strength and or quickness of the players in front of him is a marvel to watch. Martin, like Vincent, is willing to pick up the primary ball-handler before halfcourt and slows the actions the opponents want to run. Martin’s been able to successfully contain multiple primary shot creators like Khris Middleton to a 1 of 7 shooting, Bradley Beal to 0 for 4, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to a combined 1 of 4 night and most recently holding Steph Curry to 1 of 7 shooting and De’aaron Fox to 0 of 3. Having a defender get up for challenges like those and then win the matchup is something that is an absolute luxury to have when the all-defense level player in JImmy Butler is missing time.

*This takeaway is from the entire season, the sample size of Vincent and Martin being good on defense is not exclusive to the last 21 games.

* For a more in-depth break down on Caleb Martin’s defense, read this article from Brady Hawk

5. Top 10 ROTY Candidate: Ömer Yurtseven

When the Heat signed Yurtseven to a standard multi-year deal, there was a belief that in a perfect world, this would be a redshirt year and he ultimately would not see much run until the 2022-2023 season. Then came the injury bug. With Adebayo, Morris and Dedmon out, it was time to see what the 23 year old rookie had to offer. The production the big man has been able to give the Heat is nothing short of incredible. In his 11 games where he’s played 20 or more minutes, Yurtseven is averaging 9.9 points, 13.45 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.2 steals. The ability to dominate on the boards against top tier rebounders such as Sabonis, Nurkic and Ayton has shown that Yurtseven has an elite trait in rebounding, and a rapidly growing game elsewhere.

While Yurtseven has had amazing moments, there still are areas that need to be worked on, specifically going into next season where he projects to have a larger role. The defense has been a concern since his Olympic qualifying games with Turkey, while there have been improvements, there needs to be a specific defensive coverage for Yurtseven to specialize in (Drop coverage makes the most sense). As for the offensive side, Yurtseven needs to work on his touch. He is currently shooting 46.8% from the field, a way below average mark for a center who takes 90% of his shots inside the paint. Once the shots around the rim begin to fall, there should be an emphasis on fine tuning the mid-range shot that Yurtseven weaponized in the summer league as a pick-and-pop big.

The last 11 games where Yurtseven has been heavily relied upon and played winning basketball has instilled confidence in fans that the Heat have a clear pathway to develop Yurtseven into a rock solid rotational player down the road with potential to be a starter if the Heat ever decide to size-up in the frontcourt.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over the Suns

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The Miami Heat faced the best team in the league tonight, in the Phoenix Suns, and completely dominated without both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro led the way off the bench, but pure outside shooting and offensive execution was the main reason for this.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Duncan Robinson steps down into bench role, but steps up in production.

It was one of those unexpected, yet expected moves that Erik Spoelstra pulled before this game with Max Strus staying in the starting lineup and Duncan Robinson staying in reserve mode. But as much as I thought I’d be discussing Strus’ hot start, Robinson absolutely took over the spotlight. It isn’t even much schematic points that need to be made, except that his confidence looked like it totally surged. Every shot, he had his legs under him and wasn’t swaying in anyway like he usually does after a couple don’t drop. Now, with him coming off the bench, the part many had their eyes on were the minutes of Tyler Herro and him together. And well, when you’re shooting like that, it’ll work. They did run some Herro-Robinson pick and pops with Robinson screening and slipping, which is the exact way to maximize that combo.

#2: Miami shifts who the offense is worked through, and an unexpected guy is the focal point.

I’ve talked a ton about the importance of PJ Tucker in that play-making role, but we saw a shift to begin this one. Initially, we saw much more of Tucker surveying in the dunker spot when one would drive and feed, instead of his usual back to the basket on the wing three. But that aside, they found a guy in the middle of the floor to just make the right sprays, and that guy’s name was Omer Yurtseven. Seven first half assists doesn’t even tell the full story, but just him stepping up when the offense needed that from him says a lot. We’ve seen monster scoring stretches from him this year. We’ve seen nonstop rebounding hounding from him as well. But that first half was the most promising stretch of basketball from Yurtseven that I’ve seen up to this point.

#3: Tyler Herro surprises in other ways now.

Yet again, it was a bit of a shaky start for Tyler Herro. Instead of being surprised by his wild shot-making or unexpected struggles, he surprised in a different way tonight. As I loaded up the box score for the first half, I did not expect there to be a 17 next to Herro’s name. Not only that, but he battled back to 50% shooting up to that point, which is just a big tell of where his game has gone over the last year. When he couldn’t get going tonight, he quickly got into “physical mode,” which is something I’d like to see him enter more often. One fast-break dunk looked to spark some things for him on the attack, and he began driving with his left shoulder leading the way. No more avoiding contact and wild scoops. Okay, there were a few scoops, but when the majority is just strong play from your young guard, good things will happen, which it did, as he ended up finishing the game with one of his best scoring games of the season.

#4: If Miami gets this offensive production most nights, they’ve found the perfect complements for Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

Roster construction is always a hot topic when talking about teams in the NBA, and more importantly, it’s a bigger topic for contending teams. Right now, the Heat are definitely a contending team. And when looking at the depth of this team, it’s led to us thinking about combinations that will work best in a playoff setting around Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but I’m just not so sure there’s *one* right answer. But no matter who those guys end up being, this type of shooting around those two guys is the ultimate complements to each of their games. Even going back to Robinson and Strus, if both are shooting like this in a few months, there won’t be many minutes where one isn’t on the floor. That is the formula for Butler and Adebayo lineups, and Erik Spoelstra has found that formula.

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#5: The Heat just keep doing it.

8-2. That’s the Miami Heat’s record against the top 3 seeds in both the Eastern and Western Conference. No matter who has been available, how many road games they play, or what player is currently in a slump, they’ve still found ways against the top teams in this league. They handled Brooklyn early in the year, dominated the Chicago match-up, and won the majority of games against the Bucks, which they were majorly shorthanded for. On the other side of the league, they lost to Golden State on this trip, yet swept the match-up with the Utah Jazz, and handled business tonight against the Phoenix Suns. That slate of games is as impressive as it gets. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo just watching from the sideline, as the young and hungry continue to battle through win after win. And well, that’s all that is needed. Buy time for Butler, Adebayo, and others, then it’s time to anchor down once the post-season hits. But they’re in a picture perfect position at this moment in time.

 

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PJ Tucker Taking the Reigns of this Heat Team in his Own Unselfish Way

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When evaluating a potential playoff series match-up between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat, could a major point of emphasis be as simple as one team has PJ Tucker and the other doesn’t?

At this point in the season, most definitely.

After he was perceived to be a high level role player with supreme defensive talent when joining Miami this off-season, the opinions have shifted dramatically in a positive direction. And rightfully so.

Simply, he can fill the shoes of whoever you ask him to, and he does it quite seamlessly.

When Bam Adebayo goes down to begin the month of December, who can takeover that back-line defensive task, while distributing on the offensive end on a similar level?

Oh, just PJ Tucker.

Who can emulate the mid-post that Jimmy Butler does when he goes down for continuous extended periods?

Oh, just PJ Tucker.

Who can raise the production of outside shooting when Duncan Robinson goes through slumps, Max Strus enters protocols, or there’s just limited perimeter players available?

Oh, just a 46.2% 3 point shooter named PJ Tucker, which ranks number one in percentage among the top 250 players in 3 point attempts per game.

To dive into that number a bit more, he’s shooting just under 47% from three on pure catch and shoot looks, while obtaining a 60.9% effective field goal percentage across the year. News flash: the reason this is so impressive is because attempts have risen, his role has gotten bigger, and the number of defensive eyes on him keep climbing.

Also, since he’s well known to be the catalyst of a corner specialist, 91.4% of his shots are coming from the corners, which is the highest mark of his career.

Many of these numbers are pretty absurd attached to Tucker’s play so far this season on the offensive end, but game film seems to be even more absurd.

Looking at the clip above, this is the new role for Tucker when Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler aren’t on the floor, and it’s something nobody could’ve predicted he’d be able to fill as a play-maker.

The ball is inserted into him inside that wing three, which pretty much triggers two things: Tucker play-making mode is activated with his back to the basket, and weak-side off-ball screening is going to be the main point of emphasis.

Tyler Herro looks to be setting Max Strus a screen to fly around the perimeter into a hand-off, but well, that would be too predictable in a Miami Heat offense, right?

Strus cuts back down baseline to reverse the hand-off the other way, as Herro rises up to the top of the key as a safety blanket. Two flash to Strus as they usually do, and he hits Tucker on that slip screen that he finds himself in so often.

From there, all Tucker needs is a 2 foot plant, a quick spring, and a one-hand floater that is becoming more of an offensive staple than his corner shooting that I brought up previously.

Of course it’s great to see that shot down low falling, but as I said before, the most intriguing part about that entire clip is the first 3 seconds. The offense being worked completely through Tucker with Adebayo and Butler on the sideline, and Lowry in the locker room, is not a temporary thing.

That’s a tool that Erik Spoelstra has found, and will not waste.

Here’s pretty much the same exact set except on the opposite side of the floor.

This time around, Omer Yurtseven is setting the end around screen for Strus to fly off of for the hand-off, yet the same outcome is found. Strus refuses it and cuts back-door, while Tucker throws a pass that pretty much sums up is unique new play-style this season.

But aside from the behind the back flashiness, one more thing stands out about Tucker here.

Go back and watch this play again, but focus on Tucker reading the floor. Jusuf Nurkic had to make a decision between finding Strus below the rim, stepping up to Yurtseven, or taking the gamble of playing the middle and betting on the recovery game.

Tucker smartly waits it out one extra second, which makes all the difference on plays like this, as Nurkic makes that predictable step up. As soon as he takes that step, Tucker hits Strus for the easy two, as no recovery can then be made.

That’s the definition of PJ Tucker. Waiting that extra second.

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But as much as we sit here and talk about the unpredictable nature of Tucker as an offensive threat, I’d say he’s been pretty predictable on the defensive end to say the least.

Looking at some one-on-one match-ups, he has held Giannis Antetokounmpo to 3 of 9 shooting this season, Khris Middleton and Nikola Vucevic to 1 of 8 shooting, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to a 1 of 4 night, Domantas Sabonis has gone 0 of 3, Karl Anthony Towns went 1 of 4, Jayson Tatum shot 0 for 3, and the list here can go on and on and on.

Of course stats like this can never tell the full story in general terms like this, but with Tucker, he forces top level talents like those guys to rough nights.

He takes up the match-up of the best player no matter what position they are, since as seen above, that’s as broad positionally as you can get. And when teams begin forcing him into switches off their star player, Erik Spoelstra than schemes it up to make him guard the screener, which ultimately won them a game against the Utah Jazz early this season.

He’s reliable, he’s versatile, and he’s a winner. And most of all, he’s an Erik Spoelstra schematic favorite in terms of the amount of places he can be plugged into on both ends of the floor.

PJ Tucker has stepped up at an incredible level as the Heat are enduring a very awkward time without their top level talent every single night. But at this moment in time, and when Miami enters post-season mode, I believe Tucker is top level talent.

Of course he’s not at the level of a Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, but I’d say he’s equally as important. And well, I don’t believe that’s a controversial or debatable statement at this stage, which says a lot about what this guy has been able to do over the first 39 games of the season.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Trail Blazers

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The Miami Heat played another late night West Coast match on Wednesday night, but got the win this time around against the Portland Trail Blazers.

This was an interesting one with an early Kyle Lowry ejection and a late ejection for Tyler Herro, but either way, Miami escaped with a much needed win in this tough stretch of games.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Max Strus comes out of protocols, Max Strus comes out firing.

After missing the last 7 days in the health and safety protocols, Max Strus found himself in the starting lineup in his return. And we saw a recurring theme within his game, which is that he never misses his first shot. Ever. Aside from that and his high level confidence from deep, it’s always much more big picture when bringing up this specific name. The reason is that with a healthy roster, which shouldn’t ever be an expectation in this unique time, Strus would most likely be shelved with all of the other talent on this roster. The thing about that is there’s absolutely no way humanly possible that could occur if Strus is playing the way he is at this exact moment. Who is the guy on the team that you expect his shot to drop every time he shoots? Well, that guy is Max Strus every time I watch these games, and it fits with the current clip he’s shooting at. And more importantly, he’s proven to be a clutch time shooter.

#2: Miami’s intriguing offensive sets in life without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

I constantly touch on mid-post touches when one of Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler are on the floor, but what does offense look like without the both of them? Well, it’s much simpler. Aside from the base perimeter sets like pick and rolls, hand-offs,  and drive and kicks, Miami’s found a unique formula with more shooting on the floor. One guy will set up on the wing with the ball in his hands in play-making mode, as the other 4 guys line up on the weak-side. Now, the next step is usually two flares and two off-ball screens, as one shades up to the top of the key and the other crosses to the strong-side, then layers are added from there. That base is so interesting with the many options within it, but it wouldn’t be possible without PJ Tucker. Who would’ve thought Tucker would be that on-ball wing play-maker at times? But well, he has been at times, and it has worked extremely well.

#3: Kyle Lowry ejected?

Kyle Lowry was going to be a takeaway of mine either way tonight, since it was originally expected that I’d be discussing his on-court play with 9 assists in 16 early minutes. Since for one, that is quite impressive. But the reason we’re bringing up Lowry now is due to his unexpected ejection in the second quarter. The first one was deserving after his extended chirping at the officials following a foul, which we’re used to. But the second technical came when he tossed the ball lightly at the referee. Literally. With the official not expecting it, he immediately reacted as if he threw a fastball down the middle, and ejected him from the game. Like I said, we’ve seen tech after tech on guys like Lowry and Tucker all season for obvious reasons, but this one wasn’t even close to being warranted. Yet on the bright side, some much needed extra rest came Lowry’s way, as his other top level teammates have gotten much more of that sideline observing.

#4: The flipping offensive nature that is PJ Tucker.

Seeing PJ Tucker in play-making mode as he is without Butler and Adebayo is one thing, but mid-post behind the back passes for layups is another thing. That leads us back a few years, where his name coming up always led to the label of “offensive limitations,” which would make you scratch your head a bit if your first time watching him was in a Miami Heat uniform. Not only as he surpassed that label, but he’s doing something that literally nobody could’ve predicted. No matter who exits the lineup, he fills the role. Only one guy can semi-emulate the game of Adebayo, Tucker can save them. Mid-post play-making in a Butler way, Tucker is there. You need him to play center for most of the game down so many bigs, he’s your guy. Versatility, comfort, and the trust factor: the story of Tucker’s season.

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#5: 10-days are dwindling, but is this the end for all?

Many 10-days have already been shut down as guys exit the health and safety protocols, such as Aric Holman, Nik Stauskas, and Heat fan favorite, Mario Chalmers. But there are a few others that are still getting chances and showcasing their skills. One of them is Chris Silva, who actually gave Miami a decent hustle boost in this one tonight, but doesn’t seem to be a fit for the future with his current skill-set. Kyle Guy is the hot topic among that group, who continues to showcase an offensive skill-set that stands out with his efficient scoring, flashy passing, and a surprising downhill threat and attacker. Lastly, Haywood Highsmith continues to get run even with Tucker back with the team, and I must say, I’m not surprised at all. When he was signed, that was the name I said to watch for. Not for a second 10-day potentially, but to see him back in the future. Miami always circles back, and this feels like another example.

 

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