Dolphins should consider these numbers before signing Tua long term

So Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier wants to sign quarterback Tua Tagovailoa long term, does he?

Well… Grier better take a look at some of these numbers that I pulled, before he commits to Tua any longer than his 5th-year option. 

We all know by now that Tua is a fantastic NFL quarterback who can put up some impressive Top-5 numbers during the regular season…

— 1st in pass yards

— 5th in pass touchdowns

— 5th in QB rating 101.1

— 5th in accuracy 69.3

And to add on top of that… Tua played in all 17 games in 2023 – a feat he hasn’t reached since entering the NFL. Previous to that, he never completed a full season due to injury.

But is he a Top-5 talent? That’s a clear “no”.

Is he an assassin? Still waiting on that.

How does he perform against winning teams and high-profile quarterbacks? Dolphins Nation is disappointed and left wanting after losses to the Eagles, Ravens, and being swept by the Chiefs and the division rival Bills. Not to mention that the Miami Dolphins scoring dropped from putting 30 points on the Jets in mid-December to 22 versus the Cowboys, to 19 versus the Ravens, to 14 versus the Bills, to 7 versus the Chiefs on Wildcard Weekend. 

Is it all Tua’s fault? No. 

Player injuries, coaching, and play-calling play a factor as well.

But he and the offense have had multiple chances to respond in these final 3 losses, and they’ve failed.

And Tua is the franchise quarterback for now …  and if Grier has his way… for the foreseeable future. 

But here are some areas of concern the Dolphins front office needs to consider, before locking up Tua Tagovailoa to a longterm deal: 

Before and after Halftime

Tua’s overall passer rating during the first half of games is better than the second half. And his passer rating goes down as each quarter of the game ends. Starting from 117.3 in the first quarter, and dropping to 109.2 in the second, 92.3 in the third, and 75.9 in the fourth. 

In the first half of games, Tua has 20 touchdowns to 6 interceptions for a passer rating of 112.2.

In the second half, 9 touchdowns to 8 interceptions for a passer rating of 85.5 respectively.

Tua did not play well in the 4th quarter

In the 4th quarter of 2023 regular season games, Tua has 4 touchdowns which is tied for 7th-most. But the top 7 spots in that respective category, involve 25 quarterbacks.

Tua is also tied for 5th-most interceptions with 3, and an overall passer rating of 75.9 in the 4th quarter.

Tua did not perform well in primetime

In late games this season, Tua has a win-loss record of 1-3. With a touchdown-interception ratio of 3-4, and a passer rating of 84.0.

December & January

During 2023 regular season December and January games — his total win/loss record is 3-3 with a TD-INT ratio of 7-4 for total average passer rating of 82.0.  

During Wildcard weekend in Arrowhead, he passed for 199 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. With a 51.3% completion, and 63.9 passer rating.

Tua was not good under pressure

Pro football focus ranks him 30th versus overall pressure with a grade of 54.4. He is tied with Carson Wentz. 

Leading, Tied, Trailing

When leading, Tua’s completion percentage is 70.18%, 9 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 98.2 rating. While being sacked 9 times.

When tied, 69.16%, 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 114.0 rating, while being sacked 5 times.

When trailing, 68.51%, 13 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 97.8 rating, while being sacked 15 times. 

Playoff record

Tua’s playoff record is 0-1. However, he could’ve been to the playoffs twice, if he would’ve not had concussion issues towards the end of 2022. If he played in the 2022 Wildcard Round in Buffalo that season, at best his playoff record would be 1-1. At worst, 0-2. 

But the Dolphins still lost 4 games in a row before Tua was ruled out for the rest of that season. During that span, Tua played poorly in 3 out of his last 4 games. 

Just like he didn’t play well or well-enough during the final stretch of this 2023 season or against the Chiefs in Arrowhead. 

So do the Miami Dolphins want to sign a proven clutch quarterback or just a high-level regular season quarterback who will take you to the dance, but leave you in playoff purgatory? 

The Cowboys signed Dak Prescott to big money a couple years ago. His playoff record is now 2-5.

The Vikings keep re-investing into Kirk Cousins. His playoff record is 1-4.

Tua can very-well be on his way to becoming part of this category.

Or perhaps… He’s already there. 

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