Errol Spence Jr. v. Shawn Porter

Where to watch: Saturday, September 28th, 2019, Staples Center, Los Angeles, California. Available on FOX/PBC PPV.

In the latest example of the renaissance of the Welterweight Division in Boxing, IBF World Champion Errol Spence Jr. will take on WBC Champion Shawn Porter in a unification bout on Saturday. On the face of it the odds on BetDSI show a possibly lopsided affair as Spence is a -909 Favorite, and you can get +594 by betting on Porter.

I see it a bit different. As a fan of “THE FIGHT with Teddy Atlas” Podcast, I agree with something Teddy Atlas often repeats on his show, which is that the “conventional wisdom is often wrong.” Spence is the taller, longer, “rangier” guy and therefore he should just box Porter’s face off. That is simplistic thinking.

Shawn Porter has a few tricks up his sleeve that he can employ. First of all, Porter has always had a good lead right, which is a Southpaw’s kryptonite (Errol Spence is a Southpaw), and secondly, every charge of being “dirty” that Errol Spence has lobbed toward Shawn Porter, is true. Porter mysteriously likes to leave his elbows up in clinches, he tends to grab-punch, and head butts can become common in a Shawn Porter fight. These are all tools he can use to equalize this matchup.

So, Spence should keep his distance and use a Jab to defeat Porter handily at range? Not necessarily. If Porter decides to “crowd” Spence, Errol Spence would be well advised to fight on the inside, as he can always keep the range as Porter tries to backup or escape exchanges. If he fights at a distance, he is susceptible to Porter employing his movement to ruin his range and nullify his power. Spence will have to engage to win this fight.

Now, make no mistake, Spence is a clear and deserved favorite. So how can Shawn Porter win? Well, there is one sure fire way he can lose. If he tris to fight an aggressors fight and push a pace by stalking Spence, he is opening himself to a knockout or stoppage. He would be wise to choose his exchanges carefully. His best bet to win is to “pot shot” Spence from angles, and employ his Jab to dictate the pace. His activity can win this fight, but only if he is dictating when the exchanges occur. Whenever he is going to deploy a combination, he will however have to close the distance, to get into Spence’s chest to avoid return volley’s. Make no Mistake, Shawn Porter is going to have to fight a near perfect fight to win, but he is very much capable of just that.

So what does a Errol Spence Jr. win look like? I think it looks like Shawn Porter attempting to press a pace by stalking Spence, attempting roughhouse tactics inside, and Spence finding the range with his Jab, and short hooks as Porter walks right into perfect range of his power punches. If this happens, Spence can and will get rid of Porter in short order. If Porter employs a smarter style, a win for Spence is likely to look more like a pure clinic in speed, accuracy and activity. It is possible that Spence is actually worth the ample betting lines and is just too good for Porter on Saturday. Either way, this is going to be a fun one to watch.

Prediction: Errol Spence Jr. by Unanimous Decision, 12 Rounds.

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Alfredo Arteaga (@UptownReport) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.