Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Duncan Robinson’s time in Miami, notes on Satou Sabally and more

Duncan Robinson exercised his early termination option and is a free agent. This now gives the Heat the chance to use the full mid-level exception on anyone on the market. Considering the Heat’s suspect outside shooting and Bam Adebayo’s comfort in playing with Robsinson, he probably figures he can get more than $10 million guaranteed. He conspicuously missed exit media interviews after the Heat were swept by the Cavaliers.

After seven seasons, including six postseason appearances, as a Heatle, Robinson will be remembered as arguably the team’s top sniper ever. He never downed a shot of consequence like Ray Allen’s heartbreaker against San Antonio in Game 6, but he was a higher volume marksman (Allen’s Miami years). After he made his 500th trey as the fastest player in NBA history, coach Erik Spoelstra said it was staggering. “It really is a credit to how much work he has put into his craft to develop his shooting ability on the move, under duress and evolve versus different coverages and scouting reports that are designed to take him out of that shot.”

He is first all-time in regular season made triples (1,202) and first in the playoffs (147) for the Heat. He was an essential piece of the Heat’s 2020 outfit that made the Finals, losing in six to the Lakers, and on the eighth-seed crew in 2023 that also advanced to the championship round, losing in five to the Nuggets.  

To Robinson’s credit, he improved after Max Strus usurped his position and later left for the Cavaliers. His handle and inside off-ball movement became more of a feature, making him more than a 3-point threat. He is a decent connector on hand-offs, too, slipping the pass back when crowded, mainly to Adebayo. In fact, Robinson was second in assists to Adebayo (53), counting all Heatles in 2024-25.

His time has mattered. Don’t forget that he and Udonis Haslem are the only undrafted players in Heat history to log at least 4,000 points. 

LeBron is coming back for a 23rd season:

The all-time minutes leader, who will turn 41 on Dec. 30, will add to his record with another tour of duty as he has opted into his $52.6 million player option. His agent, Rich Paul, says he wants to compete for another title, but it would have been more accurate if he said, “Ol ‘Bron wants to win his way.”

No matter his age, James will always be an attraction if he’s wearing shorts and sneakers because he’s one of the game’s titans. Yet it’s hard to justify his salary when his legs don’t have the juice late in games as he used to, and he does not guard at a high level full-time. It’s impossible to win with his defensive impact combined with Luka Dončić’s refusal to guard. 

Paul also wanted to “evaluate what’s best for LeBron.” Got to wonder if that means legacy is more important than finances, which is only possible since he is the rarest of athletes as a billionaire. Keep in mind that his current salary is 5.26% of a billion dollars. With money like that, what helps him more: another short, max deal (over 38 rule ) or more championships to elevate his all-time status? 

(Forget about him taking the MLE or vet minimum.)

Keep eyeballs on Satou Sabally and the Mercury:

Satou Sabally is a top-level player because if her offense isn’t working, she will guard like she’s possessed. Her 3-point shot has disappeared, but she’s still dangerous at close range and is the Mercury’s leading scorer in her first season with her new club. 

Interestingly, Sabally recently told Lisa Leslie in an interview for Just Women’s Sports that felt she finally arrived in the WNBA when getting to Phoenix, which proves there is some good Mat Ishbia has done since acquiring the Mercury and Suns. The way she defends, the honeymoon period may never end. Her combination with new addition Alyssa Thomas and All-Star guard Kahleah Copper is the nucleus of one of the league’s top four teams. 

Sabally’s reps in Unrivaled, the three-on-three league created by Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart, sharpened her conditioning plus timing on reads, and her workouts with Jimmy Butler have paid off as she’s 12th in the first All-Star voting returns.

One of the best actions to use her in a horns set as the ball handler or cutter, taking advantage of her 6-foot-4 stature and power as she plunges toward the rim after crossing the screen. Additionally, Thomas is the teammate she has the best connection with, being the recipient of 21 baskets.  

After five seasons in Dallas, the Mercury are easily the best squad Sabally has been on. The Mercury are on pace for 31 wins and she’s never been on a team with more than 22.