Miami Marlins 2024 Season Predictions

The Miami Marlins open their 2024 season on Thursday, after another major change: Peter Bendix has replaced Kim Ng as the team’s lead decision-maker.

How will they do?

We asked some of our Marlins contributors at the Five Reasons Sports Network.

(Make sure you check out the Flip the M podcast).


Aidan Gallardo

Record Prediction: 82-80

The Marlins enter the 2024 season with a lot of question marks. Their starting rotation took a hit due to injuries to Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez. Alcantara (UCL sprain) is most likely going to miss the season while there’s optimism that Perez (elbow inflammation) will be able to see some game action at some point this season. But, with arguably two of Miami’s best starting pitchers out to start the season, the rotation will feature four left-handed pitchers. Yes, you read that right. The lefties will be Jesus Luzardo, AJ Puk, Ryan Weathers and Trevor Rogers. Right-hander Max Meyer will round out the rotation for the Fish. A very, very interesting rotation for the Marlins that might have success. Luzardo had a great season a year ago and will look to build upon that, Puk has been coming out of the bullpen for most of his MLB career and finds himself in a starting role like he did when he was pitching in college at the University of Florida, Weathers had a great Spring Training and fans are excited to see what he can bring to the table, Rogers is coming back from injury that had him out for most of last season and Meyer is a young player who’s also coming back from an injury that had him out for a lengthy period of time. Even with some of the blows, this starting rotation is still considered to be top 10 in baseball.

Looking at the offense, there is not a ton that jumps out at you. Sure, the Marlins have the National League batting champ in Luis Arraez but they lost a big contributor to their offense in Jorge Soler during free agency. I guess the main question is whether or not Josh Bell and Jake Burger can sustain their success that they had towards the latter portion of last season. Also, can Jazz Chisholm Jr. stay on the field? Because he has had trouble in the past staying healthy during injuries and Miami needs him in the lineup every day if they’re looking for that boost in offense. Miami added shortstop Tim Anderson, catcher Christian Bethancourt and utility player Nick Gordon during the offseason. These are some names that we can expect to see playing consistently for Miami. If the Marlins can stay healthy and be consistent, I don’t see why they can’t make a run for the playoffs. But the major point of emphasis is health. And if Miami can’t find ways to stay on the field, then it might be a long season for the Fish.


Jonathan Andersen

The 2024 Miami Marlins season will be an interesting one to follow. They are arriving to this season fresh off their first postseason run in 20 years, and how do they follow it up? Well, they lose their biggest power bat, they lose their workhorse SP1 for the season, and then 3 other SP begin the season on the IL. Surely they made moves to replenish the lineup and rotation to ensure competitiveness, right? Well…. Not exactly. Their additions, as we stand presently, are Vidal Brujan (IF), Nick Gordon (UTIL), Tim Anderson (SS), and Christian Bethancourt (C). Yet, with the pitching wizard of Mel Stottlemyer Jr., they have replenished the rotation from within the organization, with Max Meyer, Ryan Weathers, and AJ Puk. The additions to the lineup aren’t extremely noteworthy, but do seemingly plug a lot of holes that the prior season’s team had. With a new President of Baseball Operations at the helm, the Marlins have begun a reconstruction season. They aren’t fully rebuilding, as they believe they can still compete with their additions, yet they are utilizing some players in trades to help build the farm for the future, as seen with the recent Jon Berti trade. All in all, I feel like this season is the most confident I’ve felt going into a season as I have in awhile, but I still feel as though, due to injuries, this team is very middle of the road. As we presently sit, I have the Marlins sitting around an 80-82 season, just missing the playoffs. But, this season will be extremely entertaining, and with Bendix in command, there just may be some interesting trades and plays made yet.


Kevin Miller: 

It was a relatively quiet off-season for new Marlins’ Player of Baseball Operations (POBO), Peter Bendix and co. After making a plethora of under-the-radar and minor moves, this year’s roster is similar, but not quite the same as the 2023 playoff roster. First off, the Marlins’ pitching staff is going to have their hands full to start the season as ace Sandy Alcantara is going to miss the entirety of the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Additionally, starting pitchers Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and rookie sensation, Eury Perez, are slated to miss the first month of the season with their own slew of injuries. Until then, the rotation will rely on AJ Puk, Ryan Weathers, Trevor Rogers, and Max Meyer to eat some innings and keep the rotation afloat. Aside from Jesus Luzardo, the rotation is filled with question marks as Puk makes the transition from reliever to starter, Weathers looks to prove himself to be more than just a depth piece, Rogers looks to bounce back after missing nearly the entire 2023 season due to numerous injuries, and Marlins’ #3 overall prospect Max Meyer returns after missing the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.
On the offensive side, the Marlins’ lineup will surely miss 2023 All-Star DH/OF Jorge Soler who signed a 3-year deal with the San Francisco Giants earlier this off-season. After not making any moves to replace Soler’s power production, Bendix and the Marlins are counting on having Jake Burger and Josh Bell for a full season to do the heavy lifting. The “Dominican Brothers” Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez are expected to take another step forward after strong 2023 seasons. Luis Arraez is coming off an incredible 2023 season which saw him hit .354 and start at 2B for the NL All-Star team. But of course, the X factor for the Marlins offense is Jazz Chisholm Jr. After playing in just 97 games in 2023, the Marlins hope their young star can stay healthy over the course of a full MLB season and finally breakout into a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate. If he can stay healthy, expect Jazz to be a major run producer in the middle of the lineup. Polarizing Shortstop Tim Anderson is taking over as the full-time starting shortstop for the Marlins and looks to bounce back after a brutal last couple of seasons with the Chicago White Sox. New additions such as Christian Bethancourt, Nick Gordon, and Vidal Brujan may not be the most exciting players to add to the roster, but provide a slight improvement over the players they are replacing from last year’s roster.
So, what are my predictions for the upcoming 2024 season? I think it’s going to be a very similar season to the 2023 season. I think despite the plethora of injuries to the starting rotation, the depth in the organization will be enough to keep the rotation afloat until the reinforcements arrive. Despite losing Soler and still clinging onto Avisail Garcia for unknown reasons, I think the Marlins lineup might actually be more dynamic than it was last year. Having Burger and Bell for a full year will be huge, Arraez is Arraez, De La Cruz and Sanchez are going to continue to improve, the depth pieces are better than they were last year, and most importantly, I think Anderson returns to form in a better environment here with the Marlins, and I think Jazz plays in over 130 games for the first time in his career and puts up a 30/30 season. Lofty expectations, I know, but I’m feeling confident in this group, especially under the leadership of 2023 NL Manager of the Year, Skip Schumaker.
In the end, will this team return to the playoffs? I think they could… but I ultimately don’t think they will. I think the Marlins will be right in the thick of things until the end, but unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll be playing in October. I think the magic of winning so many 1-run games in 2023 won’t be as common in 2024, I think breakout closer Tanner Scott is set for a regression in 2024, and ultimately, I think missing Sandy for the entirety of 2024 will seriously hurt them. My final record prediction: 82-80. Could this team go on a run and finish with 85-88 wins and sneak into the playoffs again? I would not be surprised if they did, but I would not put money on it either. Regardless though, it should be yet another exciting year of Marlins baseball and I look forward to talking all things Marlins all throughout this 2024 season!


Grant Kiefer
Like many others, I was surprised how the offseason started with former GM Kim Ng not agreeing to terms on a new contract. However, the team’s new President of Baseball Operations, Peter Bendix, was a phenomenal hire for the long-term future of this franchise. With current ownership and how the team has operated since Bruce Sherman purchased the franchise in 2017, it’s clear that the Marlins will never become big spenders. There won’t be any dynasties with perennial All-Stars in Little Havana. But, Bendix comes from the franchise that’s perfected the art of retooling and sustained success, and it’s time we see that happen in Miami.

Now, that being said, the expectations for 2024 change drastically given how the 2023 season ended. I don’t expect the Marlins to return to the Postseason. I think winning 80 games is an achievable goal, but it’s best to use this year to see what young talent exists already and go from there. The fanbase and media have been suggesting this with every new front-office leader the Marlins have, but going all-in at the deadline for a Wild Card spot is not the key to sustained success. That’s now how Bendix will operate this team, so I expect a middle-of-the-pack record and potentially some trade deadline selling to prepare this team for 2025 and beyond.
Eric Wiedeke

The Marlins are a team starting 2024 with more questions than answers- How will a team that finished the 2023 season 29th in runs scored field a more potent offense sans slugger Jorge Soler who clubbed 36 home runs and posted an .853 OPS last season as a fixture in the middle of the order? Will the Marlins injury ravaged rotation be able to bear the load of a full 162-game season? Will the Marlins finally get a full season out of 2022 All-Star Jazz Chisholm? Ultimately, given the lack of improvements in the lineup made over the offseason, although 2023 deadline additions Jake Burger and Josh Bell will provide some much needed thump in the order, asking this team to duplicate their success in close games (35-17 in one run games in 2023) will prove to be a tall task for this team.

Alejandro Villegas
I think this Marlins team will be competitive, but it’s hard to think they will be able to beat the Braves and the Phillies in this division. I think they will be fighting to be one of the wild cards in the National League, just like they did last season, but I honestly don’t see them advancing to the playoffs. There are just too many what ifs in this team. Tim Anderson, Jake Burger, Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm and even AJ Puk as a starter now. If they step up, the team will compete. If the pitchers stay healthy, this team will stay in contention. If not, there is no way the Marlins fight for a playoff spot.
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