Tyson Fury v. Deontay Wilder II…. a Preview

Where to watch: Saturday, Saturday, February 22, 2020, MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, Available on ESPN+ PPV/ FOX PPV.

A very skeptical public watched Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder meet each other at Staples Center on December 1st, 2018. Skeptical due to Wilder being thought of as “second best” to at the time, UK super star Anthony Joshua. Skeptical due to Tyson Fury coming back from a bout with depression, drug addiction, and not looking very good in a couple of tune ups after his triumph over lineal Heavyweight Champion Wladimir Klitschko. The fighters earned guaranteed purses of $4 million for Wilder and $3 million for Fury. A pittance historically, for heavyweight championship standards. The event reportedly drew a mere 325,000 PPV buys. To say that there wasn’t much of a buzz for that fight is an understatement.

Fight fans knew better. There was a certain intrigue to see the consummate boxer in Tyson Fury attempt to “dance through the rain drops” versus the hardest puncher in boxing, in Deontay Wilder. Handicapping the bout at the time, it was clear that Tyson Fury held a substantial skill edge while the power belonged to Wilder. So, if Fury could manage to stay upright for 12 rounds he would win a decision. What a fight. Tyson Fury as promised, put on a clinic, with a well thought out game plan that consisted of a stiff and accurate Jab with movement that provided a puzzle that Deontay Wilder could not solve. But, Wilder has the best eraser in the game (and possibly of all-time) in his right hand. The embarrassment of those first 8 rounds, where I gave 6 rounds to Fury and did not give him the other 2, only because Fury took breathers, and gave away 2 rounds to rest, was quickly forgotten, when Deontay lands a Jab, then a clubbing right hand, Fury loses his balance, and now we have a fight! From that point on, you could feel the tension that was in Staples Center coming through the TV screen. Round 10 kicks off with Wilder on the hunt, but he can’t find Fury with any of his punches. In fact, he lands only 1 of 39 punches according to the in arena punch stats. Fury on the other hand is masterful, and the rout is back on, as his stiff jab is telling the tale. He banks round 11, and surely, all he has to do is survive 3 minutes, and he is once again, not only the lineal Heavyweight Champion of the world, but now he has the hardware to prove it (He vacated his titles).

Check out our round-by-round and punch type stats from Wilder V Fury… We think it says a lot! pic.twitter.com/PhtK8BCpij

— BoxStat Boxing Stats (@box_stat) December 3, 2018

Round 12

Boxing, more than any other sport, lends itself to memorable moments that live on through the ages. George Foreman regaining his crown after 20 years had passed from his bout with Ali in Zaire. Marvin Hagler and Thomas Hearns actually going through with all their “WAR” pre-fight hype. Duran-Leonard. Bowe-Holyfield. Tyson Fury rising from the DEAD. It belongs. Round 12, begins like any other, till, Left Jab, right hand, left hook. Tyson Fury is out. He is not getting up. But, he is. Inexplicably. Wilder goes on the hunt, but Fury then proceeds to win the rest of the round. That the end result was a draw, was inconsequential. We got our money’s worth, and it was clear who the best two heavyweights in the world were. The rematch was sure to come, and after a very eventful set of fights for Tyson Fury and two spectacular knockouts from Wilder, we are here.

So how does this fight set up? Somewhat similar, but there is some nuance. Tyson Fury now knows he has to make Wilder pay in their exchanges, and can’t rest on just a jab. Wilder now knows he has to use his jab to break up Fury’s rhythm. Both now know that what they did last time is not good enough on this Saturday night in Las Vegas.

How does Tyson Fury win?

No way around it. He has to once again dance through the rain drops, while also mounting a more significant offense. He has to also avoid ducking his head after exchanges, and must always remain every bit of his 6′-9″ and not lower his head unnecessarily, so he doesn’t make it easy for Wilder to find his target. A jab and grab strategy should work in here, but most importantly, Fury has to be busy when Wilder starts to set his feet (Wilder tends to set both feet before combinations). He has to go against his instincts that tell him to escape right after a successful combination. He has to press his advantages when he has them, and must degrade Wilder’s power by making him expend energy in defending himself. Don’t let him carry his power to the later rounds. I don’t believe he can win by knockout, becasue that would entail taking many risks that could lead to unconsciousness, but he can win a decisive unanimous decision.

How does Deontay Wilder win?

He can’t win a decision, without some help from the judges, simply because he needs knockdowns to gain rounds on Fury, because he is not the skilled fighter here. He has built his 42-0 record with his 41 knockouts by hunting from the opening bell while also giving away rounds in order to find his opponent with a counter, or have them weaken themselves fighting a high stress fight. Trust me, fighting Wilder has to be the most stressful thing in sports. You can literally watch yourself dominate Wilder with your skill, and showcase the superiority of your craft, then you find yourself in the dressing room asking what had happened (that happened). Wilder in this fight must hunt smartly. Follow Fury through his escape and employ different angles to attack Fury’s defenses. If he dares to duck away to avoid a combination, include a uppercut. If he escapes to his right, throw left hooks, and vice versa. He cannot let Fury rest and gather himself after exchanges. Pressure must be applied, and it can be something as easy as jabbing Fury’s arms, or shooting feints, followed by jabs to score and get Fury moving. Above all, patience. If you are busy, not in punch volume, but mere activity, the knockdown/out should come. It has come in 41 of 43 fights, and the one draw, you dropped this very opponent twice.

Prediction: The Betdsi Betting line has Deontay Wilder as the slight favorite at -118. Tyson Fury is at -102. The over/under in rounds is at 10.5. I see this fight being a much more technical affair, and Wilder hunting effectively, knocking Tyson Fury out at the every edge of the Over/under. I have Deontay Wilder by knockout in Round 10.

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.