Miami Heat Player Development: Fact or Fiction?

Like the term “Heat Culture”, the Heat’s player development program is something used to justify decisions that the Miami front office has made since Pat Riley arrived in September of 1995. But is it actually as impactful as some may believe? 

As we weigh the prospects of players like Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Ömer Yurtseven being part of the rotation, should the Heat player development program be trusted? 

What does “player development” even mean? For this article, I am defining player development as a staff improving a player to a point they can contribute positively at the NBA level that was not evident prior to joining the team. To be fair, I will be filtering out certain types of players to avoid giving the Heat too much credit. 

First, there will not be any top ten draft picks on the list since their evaluated talent was already at a high level prior to coming to Miami. This eliminates some players such as Dwyane Wade, Caron Butler, Alonzo Mourning, Lamar Odom, and Justise Winslow. 

Second, there will not be any players who did not enter the Heat organization in their first four seasons in the league. This eliminates some players such as Chris Gatling, Damon Jones, James Jones, “Birdman” Andersen, James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk, and Wayne Ellington. 

Third, there will not be any players who had previously shown high level talent prior to coming to Miami. While I think Miami’s player development has “sharpened” the skills of great players, this eliminates some players such as LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Jimmy Butler, and Goran Dragic. 

And finally, any players without sustained success (minimum of five seasons in the league) will not be included. This eliminates some players such as Sasha Danilovic, Willie Reed, among many others who flashed talent in Miami but fizzled out of the league quickly.

Point Guards 

More so than any other position, the Miami Heat have been able to develop point guards at an extremely successful rate. The first of many examples was Anthony Carter (1999-2003). An undrafted player out of Hawaii, Carter went to the CBA before joining the Heat in 1999. Playing in place of an injured Tim Hardaway, he nearly averaged a double-double in the opening round sweep of the Pistons and later hit a memorable baseline floater to beat the Knicks in game 3 of the 2nd round series. Carter went on to a 13 year NBA career and currently is part of the Heat coaching staff. 

What would the “Big 3” have been without Rio? Drafted in the 2nd round in 2008, Mario Chalmers (2008-2016) immediately won the starting point guard job in Miami and eventually won two championships. The 34th pick spent eight of his ten seasons in Miami, starting 383 games and has 4th most assists in Heat history. 

The most recent example is Kendrick Nunn (2019-2021), who the Heat signed from the G-League after going undrafted out of college. Similar to Chalmers, Kendrick immediately took the starting point guard position in Miami. He started 67 games and was 2nd to Ja Morant in Rookie of the Year voting on a Heat team that went all the way to the NBA Finals. In his two seasons in Miami, Kendrick averaged 15 ppg on 48.5% shooting. 

The Heat have also developed reserve point guards at an exceptional rate. Eddie House (2000-2003), Mike James (2001-2003), Chris Quinn (2006-2009), Norris Cole (2011-2014), and Shabazz Napier (2014-2015) all started their careers in Miami as late 1st round, 2nd round, or undrafted players. 

Guards/Forwards 

While Miami boasts a strong track record for developing point guards, there is no question they have been a factory for developing shooters. The tradition began in Riley’s first season in Miami when Voshon Lenard was signed mid-season from the CBA. Lenard (1995-2000) spent the first five seasons of his eleven year career in Miami, starting 143 games, averaging 11 ppg, and has the eighth most threes in Heat history. 

Over the years, the Miami shooting coaches improved the shooting strokes of players like Bruce Bowen (1999-2001), the late Rasual Butler (2002-2005), and Jason Kapono (2005-2007). However, there is no better example of the Heat developing a shooter than Duncan Robinson. With 530 three point field goals in his first three NBA seasons,

Duncan is already 6th in Heat history and a scorching 42% from behind the arc. He recently became the highest paid undrafted player in NBA history with a 5 year, $90 million contract. 

The Heat have also been able to build their defensive identity by discovering unknown talent late in the draft or from players who were not even drafted. Bruce Bowen was a key piece of the Heat’s defense in the early 2000’s, but James Ennis (2014-2016), Tyler Johnson (2014-2019), Josh Richardson (2015-2019), Rodney McGruder (2016-2019), and Derrick Jones Jr. (2017-2020) have all been developed in the Heat’s defensive system and found lucrative paydays during their NBA careers. 

Bigs 

Miami has found undrafted success for championship teams with Joel Anthony (2007-2014), and current assistant coach Malik Allen (2001-2005), but there is no other way to highlight Miami’s development of post players than Udonis Haslem. After going undrafted in 2002 and spending a season in France, Udonis is entering his 19th season in Miami as the franchise’s all-time leading rebounder, second in games played, and part of every championship in the franchise’s history. Udonis has went from an unknown to eventually having his #40 hanging from the rafters. 

Ike Austin (1996-1998) found himself as one of the earliest success stories in Heat player development. After finding little success early in his career, Ike slimmed down in Miami and became the NBA’s Most Improved Player in 1997. His time in Miami was short as he was traded away in his 2nd season, and never was able to continue his success elsewhere. 

Similar to Austin, Hassan Whiteside was out of the league before joining the Heat and earning a $98 million contract. Whiteside (2014-2019) quickly developed into a nightly double-double threat and one of the best shot blockers in the league. After five seasons in Miami, he ranks as one of the franchise’s best rebounders and shot blockers. 

Although he was a lottery pick, many believed Bam Adebayo was drafted too high when Miami picked him 14th in 2017. Just a few years later, Bam is one of the best defensive players in the league and has become an All-Star and Olympic gold medalist. He is far from a finished product, but the early returns from his development could put him on a path to be the all-time best example of the Heat’s player development program.

The Verdict 

Over the past 26 years, there are few if any franchises who have consistently found “diamonds in the rough” like the Miami Heat. There is no question that their player development program is one of the best in the league and that is why agents of undrafted players seek out opportunities for their clients to join the Heat. There are also examples of failures along the way, but that is the case for every franchise and those examples are far less significant than the success stories. So when assessing the future growth of current players like Ömer Yurtseven, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Tyler Herro, KZ Okpala, and potentially others, you can see the historical path of players who were relatively unknown and unproven, given the chance to shine in the Miami system, and flourished. The beauty of the Miami Heat is that the current pipeline is being manned by coaches who were once products of this system, and led by Erik Spoelstra who himself grew from the film room to head coach.

The Miami Heat’s Defense is Going to Be Special

So much was made last season about how Miami somehow ended up having a top 10 defense despite starting only two “plus defenders” for most of the season. It felt like an uphill battle throughout the year despite the defense being considered “solid.” The uphill climb was felt more internally throughout each game by Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Both guys would need to cover for many of their teammates who were either weak or downright bad defenders.

You could feel how much energy they were exerting trying to keep certain lineups afloat. Not to mention what they also had to do on offense. These factors are why the midseason addition of Trevor Ariza felt like such a significant boost to the team. It was one more defender Spoelstra could put out there with their stars without having to worry. And this was a slightly over-the-hill Ariza we’re talking about — imagine if you added even better defenders multiplied by 2. That’s what the Miami Heat have done this offseason.

The additions of PJ Tucker and Kyle Lowry will allow Miami to become the best defensive versions of themselves. I believe that performance will be good enough to be no lower than a top 4 defense this season. I feel like it’s gone under the radar just how great and downright menacing the Heat’s defense will be. They managed to forage a top 10 defense last year with way less ammunition than the current roster. Imagine the possibilities now that the weakest defender on the starting lineup will be Duncan Robinson, whose defense isn’t that bad now!

With the new acquisitions, some losses may have been difficult but necessary for this season’s team to be its best. No longer will Kendrick Nunn or Goran Dragic have to defend the point of attack for the team. That also means that Jimmy Butler won’t have to defend the opposition’s primary ball-handler for the nights they’re desperate. This trickle-down effect will also be significant for saving Jimmy’s legs late in the season and into the playoffs. Jimmy will be able to play that terrifying free safety role he was so good in last season. Miami’s defense will see drastic improvements when Butler can roam more and disrupt the opposition’s sets.

For Bam Adebayo, it’ll mean more time in the paint and less time cleaning up after his guards’ mistakes on the perimeter. Not to say that Bam can’t handle his own beyond the arc, but it’ll boost the team’s ability to deter teams from getting to the rim even more. Adebayo will be utilized more as a rim deterrent and terrifying help defender that can switch as the shot clock winds down. With Lowry at the helm of the point of attack, they’ll be even more versatile in the ways they’ll deploy Bam.

You’ll see plenty of different coverages mixed throughout the year. They might have Adebayo not stuck outright switching but more coming to the level of the screen. Lowry is so good at navigating, and fighting over screens that will create a terrorizing pick-and-roll defense with Bam — alongside Jimmy Butler on the wings waiting to pounce. Bam was already in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion, but Lowry will show off another terrifying side of Adebayo. It’ll be a breath of fresh air to not have Bam cover for the entire roster at times.

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Teams will try hunting Duncan Robinson as their last resort, forced to become an isolation team. Miami will gladly take that; they’ll have more than enough bodies to cover up for him. And good luck getting those Miami players to give in to that switch that easily. They will make you earn that switch and force the shot clock down to its last second. And, as I said earlier, Robinson has made great strides in his defense that won’t make that the worst outcome.

Miami doesn’t have to wait for their defender to arrive for the Power Forward position midway into the season. This time they went out and grabbed PJ Tucker to keep that spot in check. All the things Ariza helped give you last season, Tucker will do that while being able to guard up. Not to forget how much Tucker and Lowry will improve the rebounding numbers from last season. PJ was a maniac on the boards during the playoffs for the Bucks. Teams would try hiding their weakest defensive player on him, and he’d punish teams by crashing the glass and getting extra possessions for Milwaukee.

Lowry himself has been an excellent rebounder for a point guard averaging five boards over the past six seasons. He uses his base better than any other point guard and boxes guys out to the half-court line. Miami had tons of problems finishing off possessions last year as they constantly got outshot throughout the season. It will help drastically to have these two on the floor to clean up the glass. Not to mention an entire season of Dewayne Dedmon and his insane OREB% to help out.

Add to this the possibility of having Victor Oladipo ready by December, and it’ll raise the defensive powers to insane levels. Gabe Vincent will do an admirable job in his absence from the bench, but Victor will be on another level. Good luck trying to score on a Lowry-Oladipo-Butler-Tucker-Adebayo closing lineup.

Erik Spoelstra has done more with lesser rosters, and now he’s been given his best defensive starting lineup since the Big 3. The man wrung out a top 10 defense from a starting lineup that included Carlos Arroyo, Michael Beasley, and whatever remained of Jermaine O’Neal. Spoelstra has coached a top 10 defense for all but 5 of his tenure in Miami. And 3 of those seasons, his teams finished just outside at 11th, two of which made the Finals. He’ll get the most out of this new potent lineup, to say the least.

Everything we saw that was so hard for Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler last season will become much more manageable. The weight put on their backs will be lighter and make for a really fun defense to watch. This team will annoy the living hell out of teams like a child who refuses to stop kicking your seat on a plane. They’ll make you feel them and have you working overtime for your money like a terrible boss. Miami went all-in on defense this offseason, and everyone should be glad they did. This team might rival the 2013 defense in how much fun they’ll be to watch on that end. Who said defense couldn’t be fun?

 

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

Kawhi Leonard should sit next season if he wants

The NBA regular season returns in two months and the arms race known as free agency is nearing a cooldown. With most significant signings now complete, the league’s formidable opponents are some of the usual suspects, but a group among them reloaded thinking towards the future of 2022/2023.  

 

Who else but the Los Angeles Clippers?  That’s no fault of theirs either.  Kawhi Leonard’s partially torn ACL mucked up any ambitions this team had of competing for the title last season, after round 2.  

 

This summer, the Clippers made the logical decision: extend Leonard for $176 million over four years.  Even with the injury, Leonard had the leverage to get an opt-out year in the final season of his deal.  However, LAC shouldn’t expect to see him back anytime soon.  Given Leonard’s history of taking the conservative approach with his health, the Clippers might reach the Playoffs as a mid-seed or perhaps through the play-in-tournament if #2 takes the year off.  

 

Adding to speculation that Leonard might miss the upcoming season is the significance of the trade between the Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies.  Per ESPN, Eric Bledsoe is off to LAC in exchange for Patrick Beverly, Rajon Rondo and Daniel Oturu.  This trade saves the Clippers $30 million in luxury tax penalties. Still, that development is noteworthy because it potentially indicates that owner, excuse me, governor Steve Ballmer doesn’t want to break the bank any more than he has to for a team that’s star player may never get fully healthy next season.  

 

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Regardless of Leonard’s injury being a partial tear, it’s still one of the more serious wounds an athlete can suffer.  Anyone who wants to break Leonard’s balls over coming back as soon as possible can kick rocks.  He was already misdiagnosed once before by the San Antonio Spurs doctors, as Peter Vecsey pointed out on the Duke Loves Rasslin podcast.  In 2017/2018, the Klaw played in nine of 82 games due to feeling pain and discomfort in his knee.  

 

While prioritizing health and future finances, Leonard’s relationship with the Spurs soured because he didn’t capitulate to the peer pressure of coming back too soon.  In the following offseason, Leonard, who was on the last year of his deal, was traded to the Toronto Raptors.  

 

Toronto, with a burning desire to keep Leonard for more than a year, was comfortable allowing him to employ his ultra-careful methods of “load management.”  It worked. In their partnership, Leonard led the Raptors to the first NBA Finals trip and came away with a ring.

 

The title with Toronto not only validated Leonard as the real deal, but it vindicated his character that the Spurs tried to taint.  Who can forget when Tony Parker of the Spurs said he suffered the same injury, only that his experience was 100X worse?  

 

Understandably, missing an entire year while collecting checks is frustrating to management and the fans, but it’s wiser to act cautious, in the Klaw or any athlete’s case, than regret it later.  Let’s not forget that Derrick Rose sat all of 2012/2013 recovering from his torn ACL.  In 2019/2020, Klay Thompson followed the same school of thought nursing his injury.  If Leonard wants to shut it down next season, the Clippers’ primary responsibility is not doing what the Spurs did, alienating him.

 

Shaquille O’Neal, playing for the Los Angeles Lakers, imparted his wisdom when he said, “I got hurt on company time, so I’ll rehab on it.”  O’Neal was already a made-man, a multiple-time champion, like Leonard is today.

 

When people show who they are, you should believe them. Leonard, close to a clean bill of health, is as lethal a player as it gets in the NBA. Just ask Toronto and San Antonio.   

 

Is Kevin Durant Right about USA Basketball’s Place in the World?

 

 Team USA basketball captured their fourth consecutive Olympic gold medal with their victory over France in the championship round on Friday, Aug. 6. As they proudly flexed their new jewelry, dripping in champagne, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green looked to settle the score with doubters of their mission in Tokyo. 

 

Durant and Green took exception to ideas that Team USA wasn’t the favorites in some power rankings and that some media members picked them to lose. The former NBA teammates and current Olympic champions first directed their ire towards Kendrick Perkins, a former teammate of Durant and ESPN pundit. 

 

Green said, “Act like you’re American,” in reference to Perkins saying he wasn’t confident after the U.S. beat Argentina in Las Vegas before the trip to Tokyo. 

 

Then KD said, “this skill is unmatched,” referencing the discussion about the rest of the world’s place in the sport’s hierarchy. 

 

Durant’s comments seemed disingenuous, considering the win over France ended in a two-possession game. The deeper U.S. squad had 12 NBA players in contrast to the French team’s eight, who are not all on the same level as the Americans. 

 

In large part, most of the world’s elite basketball players come from the United States and work for an NBA team.  Yet, the NBA’s population consists of 24% foreign-born athletes. Their impact is not going unnoticed.

 

The MVP of the league, Nikola Jokic, is Serbian.  Second in line for that honor, this year was center Joel Embiid from Cameroon.  Rudy Gobert from France was the Defensive Player of the Year, an award he has claimed three of the last four seasons.  Giannis Antetokounmpo of Greece is the reigning Finals MVP.

 

The final four teams of the Playoffs included a foreign big-man.  Out west, Deandre Ayton of the Bahamas was the mismatch that doomed the Clippers in round three, rarely failing an attempt near the basket.  Ivica Zubac of Croatia, was serviceable near the rim for the LA Clippers, even after the team lost the help defense of Kawhi Leonard to injury. 

 

 On the other coast, there was the Greek Freak for the eventual champions Milwaukee Bucks whose performance in the Finals is reminiscent of Magic Johnson and Bob Pettit’s during the title round.  Clint Capela of Switzerland, for the Atlanta Hawks, was the NBA’s leading rebounder and was an integral component to the Hawks’ breakthrough season. 

 

In the past few years, the impact of 3-point shooting hasn’t been the primary focal point for winning teams in the NBA. The Milwaukee Bucks splashed 32.1% of their deep attempts during the Postseason. The mean for this latest year was 36.7%, according to basketballrefence.com.  In the bubble, the Lakers shot 35.6% from deep when the average for 2020 was 35.8%. In 2019, the Toronto Raptors converted 34.4% of their triples through four rounds when the average for that season was 35.5%. 

 

Nonetheless, signature qualities of the last three championship teams were their defensive versatility and size. The Bucks were unforgiving in their pursuit of rebounds, limiting Phoenix’s second opportunities. The Lakers overpowered the Miami Heat in similar fashion, snatching 45 more rebounds through six games.  The Raptors were relentless in their hounding of Stephen Curry with multiple defenders, and more so after the injuries to Durant and Klay Thompson when the Raptors implemented a box-and-one, completely disrespecting every other Warrior on the floor. 

 

Keeping in mind that as of late, size has shown to be more valuable than perfecting a circus shot, how has the world not caught up in some aspects of the game, according to Durant, when the best big men in the NBA are no longer American? Pat Riley famously once said, “No rebounds, no rings.” A term that applies to all but the anomaly Miami Heat during title runs for 2012-2013. 

 

What Kyle Lowry Means for the Direction of the Heat

A look at what the signing of Kyle Lowry means for the Heat and how it shows they’ve learned from past mistakes.

Ladies and gentlemen, they got him. After what seemed like a year of wondering when, not if Kyle Lowry would join the Heat, it’s become official. The most wanted point guard on the Free Agent market will be making his way to South Florida straight from Tampa. The Miami front office’s pressure to make a move after such an unfulfilled season can be slightly lifted now that they’ve got their man. We can all look back at the Trade Deadline, wondering what might have been in the playoffs. We can daydream about how far they could have gone in the playoffs with all that happened to break. But the brain trust of the Heat isn’t looking to daydream anymore — they’re ready for a reality check.

Every front office has to go through rough spots here and there, but for Pat Riley, one misstep is too much. Last offseason was one giant hiccup that Riley will not get over. The moves made in the previous year were with the idea of a future acquisition that may be coming to fruition. Now everyone has learned that holding on for a dream without a clear indication from the opposing party is a futile gesture.

The Heat went after a player in front of them, who gave signs that he would be all aboard the Heat train. Kyle Lowry giving such a straight answer is precisely what the front office wants this year. No more beating around the bush and looking at pipedreams through tinted windows.

The Miami Heat were in between a youth movement and a bundle of old vets prying for a final run last year, not knowing which direction to go. Heat fans hope that this is a sign they know what direction to take. That direction feels led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo; no one else matters. It’s time to stop waiting on the younger guys to be more than what they are. It’s time to surround Jimmy and Bam with solid to great basketball players. There won’t be any more waiting for the perfect fit or trying to inch your way to the ideal roster. Fit can be a part of the algorithm — it just can’t be the entire equation.

The remaining part of the equation still has time after the Lowry signing. This move is only the beginning of what should be a significant facelift for the team. This change hasn’t come without its price, as the Heat had to say goodbye to a beloved Slovenian Dragon. While everyone assumed Miami would operate as an over-the-cap team if it picked up Goran Dragic’s option, it was still possible that he would return. But it looks like the Heat had to change course due to circumstances. There are tons of obstacles but there are none. These are the kind of cutthroat moves that need to happen to maximize the window Miami has in front of them.

We all saw how too much emotional attachment did to them last year — they’re not going down that road. It’s not to say that the FO shouldn’t treat the players like emotionless robots. There always needs to be a human element at the core of everything. Look at how much the friendship between Lowry and Butler has played into this entire situation. But you have to reach a certain point where you need to put emotions aside and do what’s best for your top players and franchise as a whole.

While it may sting in the present, it’ll all be better in the long run. And that’s what the team has come to understand after last year. Everything is different this summer, and it might be difficult to swallow at times — but it’s needed.

The frustration of a lost season after a Finals appearance has run through everyone’s veins. The fans should feel confident that everyone is on the same wavelength now. And even though it may not have been for a whale, a giant marlin is sometimes enough of a catch. I don’t expect the Heat to be done nor satisfied with the Lowry move as their marquee maneuver. There seems to be an indication to make more moves in the future. What those moves are, I have no idea. What I do know is that the team is ready to go all-in on Bam and Jimmy. Everyone else is expendable. It’s time.

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

Cavaliers Luck Out Again with Evan Mobley

I am not a gambler, its just not my style. However, I’ll tell you what, the day I decide to play the lotto or  place a bet on MyBookie it will be in Cleveland, Ohio.

For the past 20 years, this franchise has just been  in the right place at the right time. The most well-known example was in 2003, being tied with the  Denver Nuggets at 22.5% chance of winning the #1 overall pick and on that fateful Spring evening, luck  bounced their way and they earned the right in drafted who many believe is the greatest player of all  time, LeBron James. Fast-forward to lottery night, May 17th 2011, a season removed from when LeBron  decided to take his talents to South Beach. Cleveland, having 19.9% odds, again are GIFTED with the #1 overall pick and top prospect Kyrie Irving becomes a Cavalier.

The fortune is far from over though. Two  seasons had passed, Cleveland still suffering the effects of losing LeBron, and in the 2013 NBA Draft  Lottery, with 15.6% odds, Cleveland obtains the #1 overall pick once more and chooses Anthony Bennett  (proving that luck can only take you so far).The very next seasons, the Cavaliers, with 1.7% odds (!!!)  AGAIN jump up to the #1 overall pick, drafting the best player to come out the NBA Draft since LeBron  James, (or so we thought) Andrew Wiggins. FYI, there was a 0.00012% chance for Cleveland to win 4  NBA Draft a Lotteries in 12 years. If you thought the city of Cleveland couldn’t get any luckier, this same  off-season the Cavaliers were blessed with having their prodigal Son, LeBron James, return home for one  last run at bringing a championship to the land. 

So, why did I just give you that history lesson? Because the Cleveland Cavaliers just lucked-out, again.  This past Thursday the Cavaliers with the #3 pick, selected USC standout Evan Mobley after Houston  passed up on him and selected Jalen Green instead, a fine prospect in his own right (I do, however,  disagree with that draft selection).

Mobley, as I described in my 2021 NBA Mock Draft recently, is a  special talent who would be the consensus #1 prospect in almost any other draft. His calling card is his  defensive ability where he displays his high basketball IQ both on the ball navigating through screens  and off the ball taking advantage of his length being 7ft with a 7’4 Wingspan, disrupting passing lanes  and putting a lid on the rim with his shot blocking prowess. He has the hips and lateral  movements needed to legitimately defend 1-5 and knows exactly how to time his shot contest and maneuver in mid air to avoid being called for a foul. Offensively he has the court vision to find the open  man and make the right reads, staying calm and composed under the pressure of double teams. While  he is no Nikola Jokic, there is no reason to believe he can’t be used in a similar role as he progresses. He  can handle with both his left and right hands effectively and owns a smooth mid-range J that I look for  him to extend to the 3-point line to maximize his offensive impact. Mobley has clean footwork down  low and seems comfortable bring the ball up the court even in fast break situations. Evan Mobley has  legit DPOY potential. 

In terms of projections to the next level, many of gone as far as to compare him to future HOFers  Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh. I myself liken him to a combination of Myles Turner and Bam Adebayo. Yes those comparisons seem a little extreme, and one might wonder if he has this kind of potential how  did he fall to #3?

I have the same question.

I can understand taking Cade Cunningham #1, when two  prospects are similar in talent the guard/wing will get the nod nowadays because the NBA has slowly  evolved away from the days of the Big. And I can give Houston a pass (for now) on picking Jalen Green due to his exciting offensive capabilities as well as his elite athletic profile. But in my humble opinion,  unless Jalen Green becomes this generations Micheal Jordan, Houston will lament passing on Evan Mobley. Give the big man some time, he might not win Rookie Of The Year, but he will have the city of  Cleveland counting their lucky stars for having a talent like him fall to their laps, Again.

NBA Lottery Mock Draft: Cunningham and company

This Thursday we will see the lives of 60 young men change forever, finally reaching their dream  of being drafted into the NBA. In today’s mock draft, we will be focusing on the most valuable  picks: the Lottery picks, #1 – #14. I will be pinpointing the best fits for both the team picking and  for the prospect being selected, not necessarily who we believe the teams will pick but more so  who they should pick.  

Without further ado, let’s begin. 

 

#1. Detroit Pistons – Cade Cunningham (FR, Oklahoma State,  PG/SG/SF) 

Essentially the consensus #1 overall prospect, Cunningham is one of the cleanest, most  complete prospects to enter the draft in the past decade. Cade is a 3-level scorer who can  create his own shot just as easily as he can create one for his teammates, splendid rebounding  with natural defense instincts while also taking full advantage of his length in the passing lanes.  If there is one complaint of Cade it would be that he is a good, not great athlete and can be a bit  Careless with the basketball, averaging four turnovers during his lone year at Oklahoma State.  Having an NBA ready body at 6’8, 225lbs, being every bit of a 2-way player and having the  playmaking abilities of a lead guard, he would slot in on almost any team, especially one devoid  of talent such as the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has needs at every position except PF with Jerami Grant taking the leap this past season. A high floor, high ceiling prospect such as Cade is just  what Pistons fans have been waiting for to lead their storied franchise back to the promise land. 

Draft Grade: 95/100 

NBA Comp: Grant Hill with a jump shot 

 

#2. Houston Rockets – Evan Mobley (FR, USC, PF/C) 

The draft truly begins at pick #2 with the Rockets being in a favorable position to begin their  rebuild after trading away former MVPs Russell Westbrook and James Harden in the past year.  While I was contemplating plugging in G-League standout Jalen Green, With the emergence of  Kevin Porter Jr the fit isn’t quite there and the skill sets would be rather redundant, Mobley just  makes too much sense for Houston. A rare talent in his own right, Mobley has all the tools NBA  teams are looking for in a modern big man, starting with his diverse offensive portfolio. A  capable ball handler with both his left and right hand who has advanced passing IQ for a big  man, excelling in dribbling hand-offs, and making live reads. In terms of scoring, he can score  from all over the court in the half court setting and fast break. Mobley has been praised for his  jump shot and has developed a consistent mid-range J but has work to do with his three ball to  become a true threat from deep. All this about his offense and we haven’t even gotten to his 

best trait, being an anchor on defense. Having the switchability desired for modern bigs thanks  to his smooth hips and elite length as a true 7-footer with a whooping 7’4” wingspan, He uses  these same traits as a high-end rim defender, averaging 2.9 blocks per game and most  impressively for me, only being called for 2.1 fouls per game. My biggest knock on him is his  lanky body type, he needs to add muscle and mass to his frame to continue his development  and maximize his impact. All in All, Evan Mobley is the prototype for what NBA executives are  looking for in today’s game. 

Draft Grade: 92/100 

NBA Comp: Myles Turner/Bam Adebayo Hybrid 

 

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#3. Cleveland Cavaliers – Jalen Green (2002, G-League Ignite,  SG) 

Possibly the most explosive player in this draft class, Jalen Green has all the tools needed to  be one of the top scorers in the league. Green possesses elite athleticism, which can best be  seen on display in the fast break and an outstanding leaping ability that rivals the likes of Aaron  Gordan and Zach LaVine. With his physical tools he has a knack of getting to the rim and  putting some electric jams on display. While not the best shooter, he has a smooth base and  form to his jumper along with the ability to create space to let it fly from anywhere on the floor.  He does, however, tend to get complacent and settle for the jumper too often which can be  frustrating at times, especially when he has the clear athletic advantage to blow by his defender  90% of the time. Jalen owns a wicked handle which is just amplified by his quick twitch athleticism, having an arsenal of step backs, crossovers and hesitation dribbles that leave his  defenders frozen on the court. In terms of play making, he is more of a natural SG with the  ability to initiate an offense but can’t necessarily be counted on to be a floor general. On the  negative side, despite his physical gifts, Jalen has had a negative impact on defense, lacking  the base fundamentals and having the tendency of getting lost when trying to navigate through  screens. The hope is that with the proper coaching he can improve on that side of the ball. For  the Cavs, this selection, to the dismay of their fans, would most likely spell the end of the  SexLand era in Cleveland as Collin Sexton has been on the trade block this offseason, as  reported by Five Reasons own Adam Borai and Greg Sylvander in late June, and bringing in  Jalen Green may be the final nail on the coffin. 

Draft grade: 90.5/100 

NBA Comp: DeMar DeRozan/Zach LaVine 

 

#4. Toronto Raptors – Jalen Suggs (FR, Gonzaga, PG) 

After a great run in the March Madness tournament, highlighted by his iconic game-winning  shot to eliminate UCLA in the final 4, Jalen has shot up draft boards and, in our mock, finds  himself as the successor to Kyle Lowry in Toronto. Suggs, an exceptional athlete in his own  right, uses his quick first to relentlessly attack the basket with a rare combination of grace and  

power plus he has the bounce to put anyone on a poster if you aren’t careful. He excels in the 

fast break putting pressure on the defense while always on the lookout for an open teammate.  His jumper is good, not great and it can be expected to improve as he develops in the league,  but if the defense leaves him too much space, he can make them pay. He is a great playmaker  using his court vision to find the open man in various ways and not scared to throw into tight  windows. Jalen’s calling card, however, is his defense. Displaying excellent defensive IQ, can  navigate through an ocean of screens and is a bulldog with his on-ball defense, never shying away from playing up on D and being a menace in the passing lanes. With the probability that  Kyle Lowry is on his way out this offseason, Suggs slots in perfectly in his role and will be  someone that Raptors fans will grow to love. 

Draft grade: 92/100 

NBA Comp: Kyle Lowry/DeAaron Fox  

 

#5. Orlando Magic – Jonathan Kuminga (2002, G-League Ignite,  SF) 

This is the spot in the draft where it gets a bit messy. With the top four prospects gone,  prospects #5- #10 are all similar in terms of talent, and each having their own warts that might  scare teams off. Jonathan Kuminga, while talented, falls into this group. A plus athlete with a  NBA ready body, attacks the basket and cuts to the rim with reckless abandon, once he gets a  full head of steam it is increasingly difficult to stop him from getting to the rack. Obviously, he is  a wrecking ball in the fast break showcasing his straight-line speed and covers up ground rather  quickly. Kuminga’s problem is he hasn’t developed much since entering the G-League, he has  been battling lower leg injuries for the past year and a half which always makes GMs rather  hesitant. He lacked natural defensive instincts to consistently be reliable on that end, seems to  lack interest on that end as he has been caught being lackadaisical off ball and lazy on-ball. His  poor shooting splits (39%/25%/62%) make it clear he has a lot of work to do before he can be  considered a 3-level scorer or have defenses respect his jumper. Kuminga has all the physical,  natural gifts to be an impact player and potentially an all-star in the NBA, but he needs to make  drastic changes to his offensive skill set, and he needs to apply effort and interest on the  defensive end. He will be an interesting project that may pay dividends for Orlando, who will be  heading to their 2nd official rebuild since the Dwight Howard Trade. 

Draft grade: 88/100 

NBA Comp: Jaylen Brown Lite 

 

#6. OKC Thunder– Scottie Barnes (FR, Florida State, SF/Point  Forward) 

OKC can go a multitude of directions with this pick, and I honestly don’t think they have a set  gameplan or preference since the Big-4 prospects have been selected. With the treasure  chest of draft picks only seen on 2k rebuilds, GM Sam Presti has his work cut out for him. 

Scottie is a legit 1-4 defender with the length and frame needed to guard centers in spots.  Plays with a lot of passion and effort which makes life near impossible for opposing ball  handlers when he is guarding them one-on-one and has no problem switching on screens.  Has great discipline and is engaged off the ball where he takes advantage of his length in the  passing lanes, making him a great fit in any defensive scheme. On offense, he was tasked as  the play initiator and playmaker and he excelled in that spot, showcasing his ball skills, court  vision and overall basketball IQ. The biggest negative for Barnes is his lack of scoring in the  half court, not having a reliable jumper, doesn’t have a quick first step to blow by defenders,  his ball handle is adequate but not enough to freeze defenders and he has trouble creating  space and getting his own shot, even if does find space his jump shot from anywhere on the  court is non-existent at the moment. He is the type of player that OKC has been taking  chances on to develop in recent years and he fits in nicely, having the chance to develop his  offensive game with the proper coaching and putting in the hours in the gym. If he can develop  a respectable stand still jumper in catch and shoot situations, he will have a long career in the  NBA as one of the scariest 3&D players around. 

Draft grade: 86/100 

NBA Comp: OG Anunoby/Draymond Green Hybrid 

 

#7. Golden State Warriors – Franz Wagner (SO, Michigan,  Forward) 

The Golden State Warriors are in a sticky situation. With the core of Steph, Klay and Draymond  entering the final stages of their careers, they need to either trade their picks for an All-star level  talent, or draft quality NBA Ready prospects they believe can help them right now. In this mock  

we don’t do trades, therefore we are slotting in Forward Franz Wagner. Franz is every bit of a  two-way player, being a Swiss army knife that can cover a variety of roles. An instant impact  defender, he has a natural feel for the game and reads defense well enough to at times beat his  man to his spot. Offensively he can be trusted to use his size and court vision to execute dribble  handoffs and keep the ball moving and make accurate passes. He has a sweet stroke from  downtown, being the ideal 3&D player the moment he steps on the court. very efficient with the  basketball and someone who will benefit greatly from playing alongside the two greatest shooters in NBA history. 

Draft grade: 83/100 

NBA Comp: Shane Battier 

 

#8. Orlando Magic – Moses Moody (FR, Arkansas, SG/SF) 

After the selection of a boom or bust prospect in Jonathan Kuminga, we see the Magic taking a  safer, more surefire player in Moses Moody. Moody is one of the more Physical guards in this  draft, having an excellent frame and wingspan to make the lives of opposing guards a misery. 

Very active on ball defender and displays his defensive IQ when roaming off ball and never  looks lost on defense. Offensively he has a reliable jumper from 12-18 feet and has a decent  standstill jumper form 3. Moody can get to the rim but is not a very good finisher and can’t be  relied on as a 1st option at the next level mainly due to the fact he struggles to create his own  shot against good defenders. Excellent rebounder has a nose for the ball once it’s in the air. 

Draft grade: 82/100 

NBA Comp: Elfrid Payton/Andre Iguodala Hybrid 

 

#9. Sacramento Kings – Kai Jones (SO, Texas, C/PF) 

Kai Jones is a raw but talented big man who with proper coaching can have a long career in  the NBA. Regardless of how the league evolves and transforms, there will always be a  demand for rim protectors and Jones provides just that while also having the mobility to switch  between screens on to smaller players. He does however still need to improve his defensive  IQ, having picked up basketball deep into his teens, he at times gets lost on rotations. He is an  ok rebounder, and he doesn’t have the physicality you would want but he will get there once  he fills out his frame at the next level. The shooting mechanics aren’t there just yet, but I  project he will be a decent 3-point shooter as he progresses. With the likely departure of  Richaun Holmes this offseason, Kai will be able to eventually take care of that starting center  spot for Sacramento. 

Draft grade: 82/100 

NBA Comp: Dewayne Dedmon/Nerlens Noel 

 

#10. Memphis Grizzlies – Josh Giddy (2002, Adelaide 36ers,  Combo Guard) 

Well, this pick was formerly of the New Orleans Pelicans until they traded it to off-load Eric  Bledsoe and Steven Adams on to the Grizzlies along with a 2022 top-10 protected Laker pick  and pick swaps. I originally had Sharpshooter Chris Duarte slotted in here for the Pelicans, a  team that is in dire need of some floor spacing for Zion and co. for Memphis though, i like the fit  of Josh Giddy for them. Josh played in the same league LaMelo Ball did, the NBL in Australia.  In his lone season on the 36ers, he put on display his exceptional playmaking ability, especially  considering he is 6’8. His height helped him pull down 7.1 REB per game, so expect him to be a  triple double threat one he gets settled in the NBA. offensively Giddy gets to the basket with  ease and had an excellent finishing rate of 64.1% at the rim in the half-court setting. His jumper  needs some work as it isn’t very consistent, mainly from beyond the 3pt arc. Defensively,  although he has the size advantage over move guards, he tends to get blown by on the regular,  not being able to keep up with shiftier players. He has shown glimpses of an adequate off-ball  defender and he should improve with age and experience. I think the fit is there next to Ja  Morant in Memphis, allowing Ja to be able to focus on getting buckets while he and Giddy share  playmaking duties.

Draft grade: 82/100 

NBA Comp: Lonzo Ball/Jalen Rose 

 

#11. Charlotte Hornets – Davion Mitchell (RS Junior, Baylor,  SG/PG) 

The selection of Kai Jones by Sacramento in this mock draft would be disastrous for the  Hornets, as that is the perfect play to plug in at the 5 spot. The good news for them is they  might have gotten a bit of a steal picking up Davion Mitchell. I’ve seen mocks with Mitchell  going as high as #7, which just highlights his talent. Mitchell continues the theme we’ve seen in  this draft class, a high-level defender with excellent off ball IQ on defense. Can easily create his  own shot and can put his opponents on skates with his wide array of dribble moves. Gets to the  rim with ease despite his size (6’0) and is a nice playmaker who can handle the pressure of a  double team and tight on ball defense. Some teams may be skeptical of his 3-point shooting  this year due to the fact he is a below average free throw shooter and he shot 31% from beyond  the arc in his RS Sophomore season. In Mitchell, LaMelo Ball has his long-term running mate at  the guard spot being able to carry the load on the defensive side and making both Terry Rozier and Devonte Graham expendable. 

Draft grade: 84/100 

NBA Comp: Mo Cheeks/Avery Bradley Hybrid 

 

#12. San Antonio Spurs – Alperen Sengun (2002, Turkey, C/PF) 

The Spurs have been floating around in purgatory for the past few seasons, and this seems to  be the offseason where they hit the hard reset with the departure of Lamarcus Aldridge and  DeMar DeRozan’s pending free agency. San Antonio has historically had great results drafting  international players, with a list that includes Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili & Tiago Splitter. Now  they get a chance to continue the legacy with Turkish prospect Alperen Sengun. I’m going to  be very honest, as much as I love basketball, I don’t spend too much of my time following the  Turkish Super League, I do have YouTube though, so this pick and assessment is based  completely off YouTube highlights, welcome to the 21st century. Alperen does have some buzz  as a high-end offensive player with potential to improve defensively one he fills out his frame a  bit as at the moment he’s a bit of a tweener, not to sure if he’s a center or power forward right  now which in the modern NBA isn’t too much of a problem. There is always a fear with these euro prospects, a fear of the unknown as an NBA fan not knowing what to expect and a fear of  drafting the next Darko Milicic. However, with the developmental program the spurs have in  place, I believe this young man will have at the least a decent NBA career, and if he can put all  the tools together… look out. 

Draft grade: 83/100

NBA Comp: Jahlil Okafor/Domantas Sabonis  

 

#13. Indiana Pacers – Usman Garuba (2002, Real Madrid,  PF/SF) 

The Pacers are another interesting team to pick a prospect for because they have so much  talent on this team but faced a mountain of injuries this past season and with new coach Rick  Carlisle, are seemingly looking to make a playoff push. Indiana allowed the 6th most PPG last  season with 115.35, already having a bevy of offensive talent so I believe Usman is the perfect  fit to grow on this team. High effort player, he is a nightmare on defense roaming around the  court and causing deflections, contesting shots and intercepting passing lanes. On offense he  can be trusted to find the open man and has a dependable handle if you’re not asking him to do  too much. Offensively there is a lot of work to be done and Indiana has the staff to help him,  plus with players like Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis and Malcom Brogdon around, Usman  should be able to focus on what he does best, wreak havoc on opposing offenses. 

Draft grade: 80/100 

NBA Comp: Dennis Rodman/Precious Achiuwa Hybrid  

 

#14. Golden State Warriors – James Bouknight (SO, UConn,  SG/PG) 

Golden State just has a Knack for having prospects fall to them on the draft board, and it  happens again in this mock with James Bouknight. A very talented combo guard, James was  the engine of the UConn offense this season with a usage rate of 32%. He will not be getting  anywhere close to that usage rate with the warriors for the next few seasons, but that may be to  his benefit as he focuses on working on the weaker parts of his game like his three ball and on ball defense. James has an incredibly quick first step, applying pressure on opposing defenses  to protect the paint and alongside his slick handle, makes for a lot of fun to watch scoring  possessions. A threat in the passing lanes, he has shown he can be engaged on the defensive  end and has the athleticism to be a plus on-ball defender with time. In my honest opinion, I  don’t believe James or Wagner, drafted #7 in this mock, play for the Warriors this season as I  sense they are looking to make a major upgrade on the roster for one last playoff push.  However, if they are unable to and end up with a young core of James Wisemen, Franz  Wanger and James Bouknight, they will be hands and in good position to pounce if and when a  star is made available during the season. 

Draft grade: 84/100 

NBA Comp: Collin Sexton/Jamal Crawford

 

 

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JRod’s Corner: Giannis’ Win Brings Back Facetime Talk

It seems like the talking heads on your favorite and maybe not so favorite sports outlets have been very concerned with who can and cannot be the face of a league.

Stephen A. Smith was lambasted for declaring that Angels phenom, Shohei Ohtani, could not be the face of Major League Baseball because he needs an interpreter. Cries of xenophobia rained down upon the pundit and he publicly apologized. While the lack of English may affect Ohtani’s marketing dollars, he is certainly the most popular player and the face of MLB with Fernando Tatis, Jr right behind him.

Now another commentator, Emmanuel Acho, says it is impossible for newly crowned NBA Champion, Giannis Antetokounmpo, to be the face of the NBA. Acho’s remarks were less anti-foreigner. Kinda.

Listening back to Acho’s segment — which Speak for Yourself has since deleted because the reaction was so negative — he says that to be the face of the NBA needs to be “relatable”. Really? What more relatable than the American dream? I guess Acho doesn’t view the NBA as an immigrant’s league. Antetokounmpo, who is from Greece, has been a twitter darling since his debut in 2013 posting about trying Kool-Aid, eating corn dogs and drinking smoothies for the first time.

But let’s get back to Acho’s “relatable” argument. He goes on to mention LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Michael Jordan. They were the faces of the NBA because we knew their stories. The good, bad and ugly of it. And according Acho, we just don’t know much about Giannis.

At 26 years old, The Greek Freak has done it all in the NBA. Literally.

Five-time All-Star, two-time MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, NBA Champion, Finals MVP. He’s a Hall of Famer right now!

If Giannis keeps winning; we will know his stories. That’s why Bron, Kobe, Magic, Larry and MJ were the faces of the NBA and Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone and Charles Barkley were not. Championships.

Stephen A. and Emmanuel are cooking up hot takes. It’s their job. It’s show business. I get that. We’re going to seeing a lot more of Giannis. The endorsements are coming, the late-night TV shows, the books and even the movies. Ready or not it’s showtime meets facetime.

 

You can follow Jim Rodriguez at @JRodShow on Twitter and Instagram. 

 

*****

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

Ranking Every Miami Heat Free Agency Target: Part 2

A look at who Miami should or shouldn’t look to sign and how they’d fit on the roster moving forward.

Welcome back to all the Miami basketball fanatics who can’t get enough transaction talk. If you missed the first part of this series where I covered ball-handlers, make sure to read it here before diving into part two. It’s shaping up to be an exciting summer of moves from a handful of teams. Miami will undoubtedly be a mover and a shaker after the way last season left a bad taste in everyone’s mouths. So let’s talk about some wings that are out there to alleviate that bitterness.

Wings:

No, we’re not talking about wings you’d get at a sports bar. Instead, this section will be about the vital commodity that never goes out of style in the NBA. It may have seemed the Heat had a plethora of wings at their disposal over the past couple of seasons, but that was simply a mirage. The wings they had were either too small for certain lineups or only adequate at one end of the floor. Yet, you watch as the teams currently fighting in the Conference Finals have an endless basket of wings they can put on the floor. The best teams all year had wings that we’re able to give their coach flexible lineup options.

The good news is that Miami should be looking to add wings for Coach Spoelstra to work with next season. The bad news is that the options in the Free Agency class are minimal. However, we’re going to go through all the available options today, starting with an excellent one.

Kawhi Leonard (PO, UFA if PO declined):

Age: 30

Fit: 10/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 10/10

It’s the summer of players whose initials are KL and played in Toronto. Much like with the other KL, Miami would very much enjoy the services of Kawhi. The playoffs have shown how important it is to have a “bucket-getter” in moments when the offense gets bogged down. These moments demand a player who can take the ball and get to his spots at any given time, especially when those spots are in the mid-range where defenses concede most of their shots. The only downside is his recurring health issues that have his reliability at 7 for this exercise. Honestly, it feels a little high to even have him at that.

You would think Kawhi would be the perfect match. Well, the major hold-up in this potential marriage would be Leonard’s seemingly unbreakable bond with playing in his hometown. It’s tough to read what goes on in most players’ minds, but Kawhi is like trying to read a Cyrillic book without glasses. I don’t think he’ll leave unless something drastic were to happen in the coming weeks. He was close to a finals appearance if not for an injury, and I’m sure he thinks there’s unfinished business. But I will remind everyone that he did want to play with Jimmy Butler in LA before settling for Paul George.

Tim Hardaway Jr (UFA):

Age: 29

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability 5/10

Win-Now Player (slight hint of upside)

Overall Rating: 7/10

A name that is very familiar for the South Florida Faithful since the 90s. The name ring a bell, but the playstyle of the man they call THJ is vastly different than his father. While Tim Hardaway Sr. turned into a pretty good shooter in his own right, he was never the sharpshooter his son has turned into. Hardway Jr. has made an argument that he was the core piece dealt in the Knicks-Mavericks Porzingis trade. While I’ve seen some people clamor to bring the prodigal son home, I’m still not entirely convinced. Hardaway Jr. has been a very up and down player throughout his career, and for the second time in a row, he’s performed best when in a contract year.

I’d be very cautious of asking for a semi-one-dimensional player who is adequate on defense but would demand a lot of money. If that’s the case, I’d rather bring back Duncan Robinson, to whom you’d at least hold the bird rights. On the other hand, paying Tim Hardaway Jr. nearly 24 million a year would be a shaky proposition.

Evan Fournier (UFA):

Age: 28

Fit: 4/10

Reliability: 7.5/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 4.5/10

Another name Heat fans should be familiar with, even if the memories are unsavory. Having an RSHK sign in Miami has worked out before with the likes of Wayne Ellington. The difference is that Wayne didn’t cost much, and Fournier would demand a much higher payday. But, outside of the money, I’m not a fan of the fit as a whole. While the former Magic guard does well in secondary creation, he’s very prone to ball-stopping and falling in love with his own shot. He also gives back most of his points on the defensive end due to his size and lack of strength. He’s very much a Plan E type of guy in free agency. I would look out for him if his market were to shrink, and he’d have to settle for a mid-level type of deal.

Kelly Oubre Jr. (UFA)

Age: 25

Fit: 6/10

Reliability: 6/10

Attainability: 7.5/10

Half-Upside/Half-Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 6.5/10

Kelly Oubre went through a season that perfectly encapsulated his career up to this point. Looking like a disaster at the beginning, followed by patches of really nice two-way play. He can drive a fanbase crazy with his peaks and valleys and on-court decision-making. Miami can talk themselves into bringing out the best version of an enigmatic SF/PF the same way they did James Johnson. The price here is a huge indicator if this marriage is possible. I definitely wouldn’t be opposed to a buy low bid for his services the same way Johnson was signed. The market should dictate how much Miami is willing to pursue Oubre. Do Heat fans want another up and down player named Kelly on the team? The Kelly-Coaster Part 2 does have a nice ring to it.

Will Barton (PO, UFA if declined):

Age: 30

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 5.5/10

Attainability: 6/10

Win Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

I’ve always been a fan of the man they call “The Thrill” since his Portland days. He’s always been a competitor and, by all accounts, a great teammate. He can give you a basket if needed and knows how to work with a skilled big man. There are times where he can throw up some very ill-advised jumpers that’ll drive you crazy, but that nickname is there for a reason. At the same time, I may be overstating his ability to break down defenders; there’s noticeable injury history that comes with it. His price will also depend on how much value he holds to teams more desperate at the wing position. But if the price is right, he’d fit right in with the system in place or a different system altogether should things change.

Trevor Ariza (UFA):

Mar 29, 2021; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) defends against Miami Heat forward Trevor Ariza (8) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mike Stobe/POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 36

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability 7/10

Attainability: 9/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 7/10

We’ve reached our first Heat player, and the ratings may seem a bit weird to everyone reading this. Let me explain; these are the rating IF Ariza is willing to take on a minimal deal and role. A small mid-level or a veteran’s minimum deals are the ideal scenarios. Ariza was a seamless fit into what Miami could have asked for from a mid-season plug and play starter. However, he should only be brought back on the basis that he’ll be playing off the bench and taking on the Iguodala role. His body is probably at the point where he can’t play long stretches at the 4 anymore. Anything past a bargain price will likely be goodbye to Mr. Ariza.

Norman Powell (PO, UFA if declined):

Age: 28

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 9/10

Attainability: 2/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 8/10

Much of what I said about Will Barton can be repeated for Norman Powell. They’re very similar players in that they can be as ignitable as they are prone to droughts. At the same time, Norm does have an edge regarding staying healthy and defensive abilities. Powell’s size can hurt against teams featuring bigger lineups. He’s best used as a 2 but has shown an ability to guard up for small stretches. The major hurdle will be the asking price and the Blazers not wanting to lose him for nothing. Those obstacles will more than likely put this possible partnership on hold this summer.

Duncan Robinson (RFA, Heat hold Bird Rights):

PORTLAND, OREGON – FEBRUARY 09: Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat reacts during the final seconds of play in the fourth quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers during their game at Moda Center on February 09, 2020 in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

Age: 27

Fit: 9/10

Reliability: 9.5/10

Attainability: 9/10

Win-Now Player with some upside

Overall Rating: 8/10

Our next Heat player has caused plenty of debate dating back to the middle of February. Should you pay Duncan? Is his cap hold worth bringing back? As is the case with most of the wings on this list, it all depends on the price and what other moves are made alongside. I think Duncan is an incredible shooter that can be schemed out of playoff series like many one-dimensional shooters before him. He still has plenty to improve on, and maybe that potential is enticing enough to sign for 18 million a year. To me, it’s about what other moves would be made in addition to a possible 15-18mil a year deal. If that’s the only big move you’re making, it’s a failed offseason.

It’s going to be interesting to see which way Miami operates with a player that seems to be the focal point of their offense at times (sometimes to their detriment.) There is also the possibility Duncan can be used in a sign-and-trade scenario to acquire a player(s) that would improve the rest of the roster. To me, he is a luxury, as most sharpshooters have proven to be if the roster around him is good enough. Miami must make their roster better to unleash his luxury or risk more of the same stagnation.

Nicolas Batum (UFA):

Age: 32

Fit: 8.5/10

Reliability: 7/10

Attainability: 7/10

Win-Now Player

Overall Rating: 9/10

No one could have imagined Batum returning to his Portland form after such a chaotic tenure in Charlotte. He became the perfect wing for the Los Angeles Clippers in an instant. Sliding into his role perfectly as the connecter on offense and a solid defensive player with intuitive rotations and pre-rotations. Batum has shown a willingness to play the 4 if asked, and his age isn’t as much of a red flag as you’d think. Depending on how Miami fills out the roster at the top, they should keep an eye on Batum’s price. He might have played himself out of both Miami and Los Angeles’s price range, but he’s worth being alert for.

Josh Hart (RFA):

Age: 26

Fit: 8/10

Reliability: 8/10

Attainability: 3/10

Win-Now Player with some upside

Overall Rating: 9/10

If “plug and play” had a face, it would be a large picture of Josh Hart smiling. He fits on to so many rosters, including Miami’s. He’s a solid enough shooter, a pretty good defender, and he does all the little things you need from your role players. He’s a younger version of Batum in this sense. He can play small spurts at the 4 but is best used as a 3 and even a big 2 guard. His two-way ability makes it that he is an easy plug alongside Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler.

The obvious large hurdle for Miami is Hart’s restricted free agency. New Orleans has been said to love Hart and wants to keep him there for the long term. Miami’s only hope is that between now and August 2nd that the relationship sours quite a bit.

 

You know what time it is — it’s the rapid-fire segment! You might see a few familiar names here and there.

Alec Burks: It should be interesting to see what sort of deal Burks demands in the market. He’s a microwave-type scorer and can give some excellent bursts of offensive basketball. I don’t think he’ll settle for a low-level deal and should fetch something from a team looking for bench scoring.

Jeff Green: Jeff has made a career of being a solid wing player that knows his role and is willing to adapt to the role the teams need. He’s been on minimum deals for the past handful of years and would be worth a look.

Justise Winslow: It would be surprising if Memphis were to pick up his option, and that’s not something anyone saw coming 2 years ago. I wouldn’t mind a buy-low deal for the former player, but it’s hard to see Miami and Winslow reuniting after a messy breakup still fresh on both minds.

Kent Bazemore: Bazemore can be quite an infuriating player. If you pulled your hair out at Mario Chalmers, you’d pull your skin out with Kent. He should be a smart veteran player, but he does not live up to the billing.

Solomon Hill: Bring back the legend on a minimum deal!

Wayne Ellington: It’s still surprising how Detroit didn’t trade or waive Ellington at the deadline last season, considering his contract situation. Nevertheless, teams looking for cheap shooting off the bench will be looking at the former Heat player. Both parties left on good terms and have had nothing but praise for one another since their split. I don’t think anyone would mind a vet minimum reunion.

Alex Caruso: A solid backup guard who plays excellent defense will always garner interest from Miami. The Lakers might be keen on retaining Caruso, but there will be plenty of eyes on his situation in the final few days of free agency.

Doug McDermott: Doug has quietly turned himself into an excellent paint scorer. He shot 67.7% on 5 attempts a game on shots within 5ft. For comparison, Luka Doncic was at 66% on 4.8 attempts. He’s always been a pretty good shooter, so if Robinson were to leave or get traded, McDermott would be a decent cheaper backup.

Andre Iguodala: Yeah, I don’t think Andre’s coming back. He’s definitely a Plan Z guy, and I imagine he’ll get a deal in Golden State to retire into the San Francisco Sunset.

Reggie Bullock: Another Wayne Ellington type of player with a bit more size. I imagine he’ll have some loyalty to NY due to his best year coming with the Knicks.

Torrey Craig: A Sioux Falls Skyforce legend would definitely not be a bad pickup for cheap. He’s a nice piece off the bench that had a good bounce back in Phoenix after a rough go at it in Milwaukee. He’s always been a good energy guy who can knock down a corner 3 and would be a younger Ariza-like option.

Tyler Johnson: Let’s list off another former Heat player for the fun of it. A reunion for a small deal with Tyler wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Tyler’s always been a great teammate, and his shooting has gotten better since his last few Heat years.

 

Thanks again for reading Part 2 of the Free Agency series. I’ll be back to cover the frontcourt options of the class next week as we inch closer to August 2nd.

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

 

What’s the Real Value of Miami’s Duncan Robinson?

To say the 2020-2021 season did not go as the Miami Heat planned would be an understatement. Fresh off an NBA Finals appearance, and I do mean fresh off as they were just two months removed, the Heat battled injuries and Covid issues en route to a sixth-place finish in the East and a first-round exit. That means Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg have an advanced start on putting their offseason plan into motion.

 

One of the first orders of business is what to do about 6’7 sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. The third-year man out of Michigan is at the end of his rookie contract that made him an extreme bargain at just $1.6 million last season. The Heat will assuredly offer him a qualifying offer of $4,736,102 this offseason making him a restricted free agent. The question on a lot of minds is what is Robinson’s value and what will his market look like come late summer.
In a year marred by absences for the rest of the roster, Robinson played and started all 72 games for the Heat. He took a small setback in points per game from 2019-2020 from 13.5 to 13.1, but saw considerable dips in other key shooting areas. From last year to this, Robinson’s field goal percentage fell from 47.0 to 43.9, his three-point percentage from 44.6 to 40.8, and his free throws from 93.1 down to 82.7.
Much of those dips can be attributed to a very taxing last calendar year. Many of the league’s star players missed time, felt fatigue, and even the defending-champion Lakers had to play in the play-in games before getting trounced in the first round by the Suns. All that to say, context is important when evaluating anyone this season.
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Even despite some falls from the year before, Robinson stacked up very well with other sharpshooters in the NBA. The only guys to average more than Robinson’s 3.5 three-point field goals made per game were Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Buddy Hield, and CJ McCollum. That is pretty great company to keep. Some may read that and figure Robinson is on that list due strictly to being a high-volume shooter. Out of the 15 players who shot at least eight three-pointers per game, only four shot above 40 percent from deep: Curry (42.1), Zach LaVine (41.9), Robinson (40.8), and McCollum (40.2).
Robinson is known across the NBA is an elite shooter, but what goes under-the-radar is his improvement on the defensive end of the floor. Last season, he was third on the Heat (behind Jimmy Butler and Victor Oladipo) in defensive win shares at 0.113, which was also good enough for 35th in the entire association. He also had a defensive rating of 108.3, which was better than guys like Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday, Russell Westbrook, Bam Adebayo, Oladipo, and Draymond Green. That’s not to say he is a better defender than the names listed, rather to prove his value cannot just be limited to his shot.

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So where does that leave Robinson in terms of contract value? I ran through 10 players who for one reason or another drew parallels to Robinson: Joe Ingles, Gary Trent Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans, Fred Van Vleet, Devonte’ Graham, Joe Harris, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Evan Fournier, and Malik Beasley. Everyone in the group made at least 2.6 threes per game and shot at least 36 percent from beyond the arc last year. All 11 also average at least 36 percent from three for their careers, as well.
Out of the group, Robinson ranked fourth in three-point percentage last year, and is first on the list for his career. Only Beasley averaged as many threes made per game last year (both at 3.5), with no one coming close to Robinson’s 3.3 per game average for his career. Of course that last part is no surprise as he holds the record for the fastest player to 500 threes in NBA history. His 13.1 ppg in 2020-2021 was only higher than Ingles, Bertans, and Fournier, but his 12.3 for his career is the fourth-highest behind just Fournier, Hardaway Jr., and Graham.
On the defensive side, Ingles had the highest DEF WS ranking of the group at 16, followed by Graham at 24. Robinson’s 35th puts him third, and considerably higher than some on the list. For example: Hardaway Jr. was 202, Fournier 208, Beasley 295, and Trent Jr. all the way at 363.
For comparison sake on salaries, here is each player’s most-recent contract, the year it was signed, and their age when they signed it:
Ingles: Four-year, $52 million signed in 2017 when he was 29, though he has since added a one-year extension to take him through 2021-2022.
Hardaway Jr: Four-year, $70.95 million in 2017 when he was 25.
Bertans: Five-year, $80 million in 2020 when he was 28.
Van Vleet: Four-year, $85 million in 2020 when he was 26.
Harris: Four-year, $75 million in 2020 when he was 29.
Bogdanovic: Four-year, $72 million in 2020 when he was 28.
Fournier: Five-year, $85 million in 2016 when he was 23.
Beasley: Four-year, $60 million in 2020 when he was 24.
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Graham (26-years-old) and Trent Jr. (22) are in the same boat as Robinson as their rookie deals are expiring this offseason. That puts all of the other between $13 million and $21.25 per year, with the majority coming around the $17-18 million per annum mark. Robinson is in the middle of the pack at 27 years of age, older than most when coming into his first marquee contract.
That means the reasonable expectation for someone like Robinson should have a floor of around $16 million with a ceiling of a little over $20 million when drawing comparisons. Many have looked to Harris’s deal when he re-signed with the Nets last offseason as a potential barometer. The two are very comparable statistically on offense, with Robinson holding a statistical edge on defense.
Will Miami look to invest that kind of money into Robinson is another question. After going undrafted in 2018, he signed a two-way deal with Miami and the Sioux Falls Skyforce before blossoming into an every-night starter just a year later. Riley & Co. have shown loyalty to its homegrown projects in the past such as Tyler Johnson and to a degree Hassan Whiteside (who started with the Kings before falling into basketball purgatory until making it back to the Skyforce and Heat).
While the others did not work out in Miami’s favor, the front office has been extremely high on Robinson. In the last year, Dan Le Batard said he heard conversations within the organization they believe Robinson’s ceiling could be as high as Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson. When comparing the two, Robinson scored ahead of Thompson in 3PM and 3P% in their last full-season (2020-2021 for Robinson and 2018-2019 for Thompson), and 3PM and 3P% for their careers. Robinson ranks even further in those categories ahead of Thompson when you compare his third and first three seasons against Thompson’s third and first three. Thompson is considered to be an elite wing defender, a leg up over Robinson.
Robinson is still not at Thompson heights to this point, and no one would argue against that, even Duncan himself. What is interesting is his potential, and when or if Miami believes he can reach that point given that he is already 27. Shooters are being paid at a premium as the league evolves, with the former Michigan product figuring to have no shortage of suiters.
Will teams with lots of cap space such as the Knicks, Spurs, or Mavericks come calling? Four of the names on the list, including Fournier, Hardaway Jr., Graham, and Trent Jr. will all be on the market this summer to one degree or another. Will one sign first then set the market for the others? Does giving Robinson a healthy extension preclude Miami from long-term flexibility, something that is always at a premium in that front office?
All of that will be answered later this summer as Riley and Elisburg decide just how much Miami runs on Duncan.
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Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882