The Miami Heat is currently enjoying its best (and healthiest) stretch of basketball this season. They’ve won 12 of their last 18 games and appear poised to make up lost ground over the remaining 37 games. In the midst of finding a rhythm, a scintillating two-game stretch from Gabe Vincent has ignited an interesting debate among Heat fans:

 

Should Vincent continue to start at point guard, even when Kyle Lowry returns to the lineup?

 

Before setting the stage, we have to get one thing clear: shame on Lowry. The sole fact that this is even up for debate is an indictment on his tenure in Miami. Sure, there have been some good moments. But ultimately his impact has not lived up to the near $30 million yearly price tag it took to acquire him. Because of that, two-impressive games from Vincent against the Milwaukee Bucks’ JV team was all it took for fans to begin beating the drum. Let it be known that this discussion has much more to do with Lowry than it does with Vincent. Let’s proceed.

 

At face value, the Heat are an average team offensively. At least that’s what the numbers indicate. They are outscoring opponents by less than a point per 100 possessions (0.4) and it has them sitting in the 52nd percentile as a result.

 

With Lowry on the floor, the numbers get worse.

 

Across the 1,257 minutes he’s played this season, Miami is a -2.4 per 100 possessions. That’s a pretty big sample size. As for Vincent, the numbers tell an entirely different story. The Heat is a +2.8 per 100 possessions in his 782 minutes on the floor this season.

 

In nearly every advanced stat, Miami is a negative with Lowry and a positive with Vincent – both offensively and defensively.

 

That said, it would be naive to derive an opinion from solely looking at just one source of individual advanced stat. After all, injuries have forced Miami to trot out a plethora of different lineup combinations and taking a closer look could paint a better picture.

 

The Heat’s most-used lineup this season has been that of Lowry – Tyler Herro – Caleb Martin – Jimmy Butler – Bam Adebayo. This group has seen a total of 405 possessions together and has been solid in every way. They are outscoring teams by more than nine points per 100 possessions and forcing turnovers on 18.4% of opponents possessions. That’s like, really good. (It’s also an indicator on where Miami would be if they could just stay healthy).

 

Things get even more interesting if you substitute Vincent for Lowry with the rest of the group staying the same. Are you ready for these numbers? In Vincent’s 68 total possessions with the rest of Miami’s starters, the Heat are outscoring opponents by 23.5 points per 100 possessions and humming with a 61.1 eFG%. I know, it’s a very small sample size, but we’re here to have some fun, right?

 

It’s plain as day. Vincent has been more valuable to the Heat this season during his time on the floor per the numbers. Overreacting to a few good games and making drastic changes isn’t wise. But with Lowry continuing to operate on career-low efficiency and Miami flirting with play-in territory, they are running out of time to figure it out.

 

Vincent has the hot hand. His offensive spark is exactly what the Heat need to jumpstart their climb back to being one of the many juggernauts of the East.

 

 And if one thing is true it’s this: Erik Spoelstra isn’t afraid to ride the hot hand. Just ask Duncan Robinson.

The Heatles went 2-0 in the miniseries against the Fawns between Thursday and Saturday in Miami. Giannis Antetokounmpo sat because of knee soreness, a gift for the hosts that assisted in padding its league record. Now, for the first time this season, the Heat are four games above .500.

Miami’s 2-3 zone followed up its masterful work securing the interior and influencing the Bucks to almost exclusively play from the outside. Over both games, Milwaukee logged a meager 44 points in the paint. Yet, on Saturday, the Bucks got five more attempts in the square (25) than it had previously. Although, Miami held them to 24.4 percentage points below the league average in the restricted area (40%).

More evidence that the zone neutered the Bucks: Bobby Portis, who converts 69% of tries at the rim and half from 3-10 feet, for the season, missed two in the restricted area and shot 33% in the rest of the lane, plus Brook Lopez attempted just one shot in the box.Typically, half of Lopez’s looks come from the paint.

Miami started the first half sizzling from deep, primarily behind the marksmanship of Kyle Lowry’s understudy, Gabe Vincent, who made five out of seven 3-pointers for the period. While he took spot-up shots and splashed trays off the dribble, he was as radiant as the Wolf-Rayet star.

Vincent’s first two-pointer didn’t come until early in the second quarter. A failed pick by Orlando Robinson minimally freed Gabe from AJ Green in the right corner. Green went over the screen, taking away the driving lane, but Vincent pulled up for a long contested two that swished.

Next, as #2 dribbled in transition, Bam Adebayo screened Grayson Allen at the top of the key. Vincent used the opening to get to the nail for his second jumper, unbothered.

For his third midrange shot of the half, Adebayo, again, shielded his defender in the halfcourt at the top. Vincent stepped into the lane, attacked Portis in drop coverage, and hit a floater covered by the low man and his initial matchup, Allen.

At the intermission, Vincent had 21 points. His efficiency from the field continued in the last 24 minutes but on a smaller volume of three out of four made buckets with an assist, a rebound and a pair of steals. He finished the game with 27 points, two shy of the career high he set on Thursday.

At the postgame press conference, Vincent said, “I think I was just in a rhythm, and my guys did a really good job of getting me open time and time again. Whether that’s shutting the screen or cutting, or finding me when I’m open in the corner… They did a good job of that, and I made some shots. That always helps.”

These back-to-back games for Vincent scoring at least 20 points have only happened four times in his career. The first time was in 2021, between Jan. 12-14. The second was later that year, from Dec. 15-17. The third was in 2022, on Feb. 28 and March 2. His latest was Thursday and Saturday. For whatever it’s worth, the starting point guard for this team, Lowry, has only done that three times in a Heat uniform through one and a half seasons.

The production at the one spot has been so unreliable this year for the Heatles that Vincent’s last week of play should instantly spark a controversy over who gets the shine and who becomes the squire. This is not an overreaction to facing a two-time MVP-less squad. The last time Lowry recorded at least 20 points in a game was on Dec. 23, and he’s done it in six of his 36 nights of action. Keep in mind there are currently 42 players qualifying for league leaders who are averaging at least 20 a night.

For the record, holding that average for a starting point guard is unnecessary. But shooting above 40% for the season is. This puts Miami in an awkward spot because both Lowry and Vincent are below that.

Age has diminished Lowry’s ability. If Vincent doesn’t take his spot he should eat a large chunk of the veteran’s minutes.

Heat culture revived Victor Oladipo’s career. Then he saved the outfit’s season. In five of his last six games, he’s scored in double figures and helped Miami capture four wins. The five weeks it’s taken for Vic to find himself had a significant impact on the club’s two-way production.

It’s a darn shame the NBA has no official comeback player of the year award anymore. For the past four seasons, Oladipo has been plagued with injuries that robbed him of his natural gifts.

Since his first game this season for Miami on Dec. 6, Oladipo has suited up 17 out of 19 times. Before his insertion in the rotation, the Heat placed 18th in October and 13th in November in defensive rating. In December, Miami was ninth and currently first in the same stat for the six games played in January (4-2).

Even when he arrived in Miami, badly needing a second surgery to address the lingering pain in his right knee tendon, he was still a bullet on defense. He played in four games prior to reaggrevating the injury while logging 25 minutes in a win against the Lakers at home.

Last season, Oladipo doubled that to eight regular season matches between March. 7- Apr. 10, 2022. In the team’s last outing of the year against the Magic in Orlando, Vic had a 40-point outburst. His finest performance in the playoffs for Miami came when it eliminated the Hawks in Game 5 at home. It was his only start in the postseason, and he recorded 23 points with three rebounds and three takeaways.

On Thursday against a depleted Bucks squad, Oladipo came off the bench for 14 points, eight assists, eight rebounds and a steal. In his 33 minutes, he assisted Miami in securing the paint (18 points allowed) and holding Milwaukee to 40.2% shooting from the floor.

On his first score, he sized up Milwaukee’s Jordan Nwora on the left wing, then hit a triple in his face.

Pick and roll with Orlando Robinson provided Vic the opening to slice into the lane for a reverse layup under the rim on his next basket. His interception of a loose ball at the top of the key ignited a one-on-one fastbreak against Pat Connaughton on the next one. In full stride, Oladipo spun past his defender for a finish before the tracking Nwora could disrupt the play with a chase-down.

On his fourth make, Bam Adebayo set a screen against Jevon Carter. Unwisely, Carter went under the pick, and #4 canned a 27-foot triple. For his last field goal, Oladipo recovered his own missed jumper with no Bucks in the restricted area and went back up for a putback layup.

For the first time this season, the Miami Heat are three games above .500. This position is nothing to brag about, but considering how poorly the year began for the club, the group’s stock is rising. Oladipo is a significant factor behind that and probably the team’s fourth-best player. He can create separation without a screen, a skill that’s eluded Kyle Lowry because of age. For this reason, Miami must ride the wave of Vic’s solid play as long as it can.

His impact makes his teammates’ lives easier on the court. Listen to Tyler Herro. Following Miami’s loss on Sunday to the Nets, he said, “I tell [Oladipo] when I’m playing off the ball, it helps me a lot when he’s in the game. Just cause they’re so focused on me. When Vic comes in it gives another threat who can shoot, attack and do really everything offensively… He looks for me in transition. I tell him to be aggressive as much as possible.”

If this production level from Oladipo continues, the probability of the Heat securing home-court advantage through round one of the playoffs doesn’t seem so unrealistic.

 

 

 

 

 

Quietly, the Miami Heat have turned into road warriors. They’ve won eight out of their last eleven games away from FTX Arena, stretching back to Nov. 27.  One of the victories was against the San Antonio Spurs on neutral territory in Mexico City.

 

On Monday evening, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo continued stunting on tour and were Miami’s key players in consecutive road wins.  Two nights before in Utah without Jimmy Butler, Miami found itself in a second-half shootout.  

 

The defense against the Jazz wasn’t sharp, giving up 123 points, but it wasn’t an abomination either.  The Heatles locked down the interior, only allowing 32 points, but where they suffered was containing snipers behind the 3-point line.  It’s too much to give up, yet, it can be excused that time only because Butler was out and due to all of the encouraging signs seen on offense. 

 

Adebayo was a pick-and-roll merchant, finishing off passes from Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Herro.  On one sequence, after the pick, Adebayo caught a Herro pass at the elbow and spun into the lane for a fall-away jumper over Kelly Olynyk. He also hit four mid-range shots, one at the left elbow and three from both mid posts.  

 

Oladipo logged 23 points on 45% efficiency with three steals, five assists, five rebounds and a block.  He scored from three areas, hitting two inside the paint, one from mid-range, plus four triples.  When Vic isolated Lauri Markkanen at the top of the key, he drove right, dusting his mismatch and nailed a layup off the glass over Walker Kessler’s help side contest.  

 

Oladipo’s last close-range finish came with over six minutes left, with Miami down 107-104.  Again at the key, Oladipo went one-on-one, this time with Olynyk.  He drove right and hit the launching pad outside of the restricted area and challenged the active shot blocker, Kessler, for a ruthless jam with contact.  

 

Herro was cold from the outside.  Before the final play, he converted two out of nine shots beyond the arc but was an immaculate five of five in the interior.  Throughout four quarters, he wrapped around front-court screens for quick entry into the lane for floaters and pull-up jumpers while also punching one fastbreak dunk.

 

Strangely, it’s not a preferred strategy of coach Erik Spoelstra to have his team foul the other club when Miami is up three points, and the other team has the final possession.  This put the Heat in a position to potentially get hosed.  Miami’s Haywood Highsmith was called for a phantom foul on Lauri Markkanen’s triple to tie.  At the charity line, the Finnish assassin buried three.  Tie game.

 

On the last play of the night, the ball was inbounded to Herro with six seconds left.  Jordan Clarkson attempted full-court press, but a stun dribble by #13 froze him, getting his defender running at his right hip as he dribbled with his left.  Herro then took off one leg behind the arc, in between two defenders and another in front, for a triple that cashed as the horn sounded.   

 

On Monday night, Butler was back in the lineup for the game versus the Clippers.  Fortunately for the visitors, Kawhi Leonard missed his 23rd night of the season, giving the Heat a chance to throw more schemes at Paul George.  Miami ended the evening, limiting George to seven out of 16 shooting from the floor.  PG’s defensive field goal percentage against the five Heat players he switched onto was 60% on 10 tries.

 

The Clippers could barely score in the box.  The Heat’s 2-3 zone was masterful in dissuading close-range looks, only allowing 26 attempts in the interior for 28 points.

 

Miami was also solid attacking the glass, out-rebounding LAC by 14 when only having four fewer turnovers.

 

Butler had an off-game.  He was getting to the line but not making freebies at his usual rate while finding open teammates.  Once again, Bam, Tyler and Vic took over with serious contributions from Strus.  

 

Adebayo broke 30 points(31) for the fifth time this season and had at least 30 in back-to-back games for the second time in his career.  The first occasion was this campaign in wins over 

Washington and Atlanta on Nov. 25 & 27.  

 

With just over eight minutes left, Strus curled into the lane with the help of Adebayo’s screen.  He missed under the rim, but Bam trailed the play and put back a thunderous slam.  

 

Once more, he was a threat in pick and roll/pop with Herro.  Even against multiple solid contests from Ivica Zubac at the nail, Bam pulled up off the catch for two points each time.

 

Herro was explosive from deep, logging five out of nine made triples, all in between the wings. Off a handoff from Adebayo, Herro splashed a 3-pointer over the four tentacles of John Wall and Zubac.  

 

Three of Herro’s long-range missiles came off dribble pull-ups, one of them scored in transition in front of Reggie Jackson, who was dropped too low by the free-throw line.

 

While the Heat was up seven points with fewer than two minutes left, Herro crossed PG and got to the mid-post for a shot over the four limbs of Jackson and George to put Miami up nine.  

 

Oladipo has looked like the former Black Panther in his latest pair of games.  Against the Clippers, he recorded 15 points on six out of 11 shots and held his eight matchups to 38% shooting from the field.

 

Vic and Tyler were the only Heatles to play every fourth-quarter minute.  At the right wing, Oladipo broke down Luke Kennard and dribbled over to the nail for a one-legged step-back jumper.  Later in the period, he targeted Kennard again and found the switch when Strus curled to the key and split the screen.  Oladipo then dashed toward the restricted area for a soft kiss off the glass.  

 

With Monday’s win over the Clippers, Butler (21.3) has now fallen behind Adebayo (21.5) and Herro (21.5) in scoring average for the team, per NBA Stats.  #13 and #14 continue to climb the mountain of NBA development, and lately, it’s paid dividends for an outfit that has had its best player in and out of the lineup.  

 

The Heat’s record is now two games above .500 for the first time this season (20-18).  Perhaps they are turning the page on a poor start. 

In 18 months, Kyle Lowry has played in 103 games, regular season + Playoffs, for the Miami Heat. He’s helped them get to Game 7 of the eastern conference finals and is currently assisting the group in regaining ground in the standings (eighth, 17-17).

Since he got to Miami, Lowry has dealt with fair and unjust criticism. It’s written enough online that he hasn’t scored enough or got inside the paint with two feet as easily as in previous stops. One of the most common verbal jabs was that he looked too heavy.

Miami started well in 2021/2022. It masked the eye test of the unit’s lead guard performing below expectations. He played too much from the outside, and his numbers were down significantly. This season, he’s operating the same way, but the Miami Heat hasn’t achieved nearly the same level of success because of too many issues plaguing the team.

Likely the Heat’s no.1 problem is that Jimmy Butler has missed 38.2% of the season. Through Miami’s first 34 games in 2021/2022, JB appeared in 19 matches, and the Heat held a 21-13 record, per Basketball Reference. That type of achievement is unsustainable in back-to-back years in the NBA without a team’s best player.

This season has been filled with crushing disappointments at home. Did Lowry ominously drop off when he got to Miami, or is this the player he was for a while before wearing white hot?

Lowry will be 37 on March 25. He hasn’t taken more than half of his shots from inside the arc since 2015/2016. In those seven seasons after, #7 has only had three years where over 40% of his attempts were 2-pointers.

The Heatles aren’t as lethal from 3-point range through 34 games as they were when they got to the ECF. Then, Miami was second in the NBA in efficiency from the corners and second in percentage on above the break triples. This season, the Heat are 29th and 17th in those categories.

With the Heat not converting at the same rate as it previously did, opponents can now liberally send more help on drives or cuts to the basket, daring Miami into a drive-and-kick. That’s not a favorable coverage for someone who has lost a step or two.

Most times Lowry gets by a defender in the half court, he has the help of a screen. In the open court, he is dangerous because of his high IQ and on-target hit-ahead passes. The issue is that Miami is not a group that plays fast. They are 26th in transition frequency and 28th in pace.

Even if the Heat were to play quicker, I’m not sure how much Lowry’s body could sustain competing for the 35.9 minutes he is now before bumps and bruises emerge. He’s currently averaging two more minutes a night than last season and is on pace to play nine more games.

It’s an unrealistic expectation to hold someone in their mid-30s to the standard they set while in their prime. Some fools might continue to place too much responsibility on Lowry because of the dimensions of his contract ending in 2024. Whatever he earns is the fault of the front office, not his.

The front office’s gamble paid off splendidly last year. The Heat was probably a shot away from a second trip in three seasons to the NBA Finals. It was also one of the most exciting years for supporters in the franchise’s history. I won’t take that for granted.

The Heat are stuck in purgatory, but this season is only 41% over. I’ve seen stranger and more fortunate things happen to those less deserving, like the 2018/2019 Houston Rockets. On Dec. 12, 2018, the James Harden-led squad had won 12 games, and the outfit was 14th in the western conference. That team, inspired by a historic run from the Beard, finished as the fourth seed with 53 wins.

For the Heat to get the most out of Lowry, it will need its best players around consistently. Key guys in-and-out of the lineup hurts the team’s continuity.