Heat-Celtics: Where they Stand Statistically Entering Game 5

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Coming into the Eastern Conference Finals, there was a lot of buzz behind the Boston Celtics and their dominant 12.7 Net Rating since January, the #1 most important indicator of winning NBA titles, according to many basket-bloggers and NBA media.

 

For all the talk about the Miami Heat’s offensive concerns, in reality, both teams came into the series being almost complete mirror images of each other: two extremely switch-heavy, elite defensive teams who don’t score quite as well, with the Celtics and Heat ranking 1st and 4th, respectively, in defensive rating (and halfcourt defensive rating), and then 9th and 12th, respectively, in offensive rating. 

 

The Heat also ranked just one spot below the Celtics in halfcourt offensive rating for the season. After 2 rounds of the Playoffs, the Heat had a better offensive and defensive rating in the halfcourt as well. For some reason, it felt like the Celtics were getting the benefit of the doubt from NBA media, whether on TV, print or on podcasts, with the majority projecting the lower seed to be the favorite. 

 

However, ever since the first tipoff of the Conference Finals, there has been a wild point swing that ends up deciding the game, in every game of this series. Essentially, whichever team that put together the significant run(s) goes on to win the game every time.

 

In Game 1, there were 3 lead changes and 2 ties, with the Heat outscoring the Celtics by 25 in one quarter. 

 

In Game 2, 1 lead change, 1 tie, with Boston having a +25 first half.

 

In both Games 3 and 4, there were no lead changes and no ties. In Game 3, the Heat had a +21 quarter. In Game 4, the Celtics had a +18 quarter.

 

All of this has led to the Heat and Celtics being tied 2-2 in the series, despite the Celtics winning 9 of 16 quarters overall compared to the Heat’s 3, (2 tied quarters), because that doesn’t actually count for anything.

 

Here’s what’s actually taken place on the court, statistically, beyond just the wild point swings.

 

 

Let’s get this part out of the way: in this series, the Celtics have a 33.9 free throw rate as opposed to the Heat’s 19.4, (30.8 FTAs per game to the Heat’s 21). The Celtics are at the free throw line 6.9 more times per game in this series than they were in the season, the Heat 0.7 fewer free throws than regular season. However, as Zach Lowe has pointed out, the Heat ranked 27th in opponent free throw rate this season. Their extra-physical defense leads to a lot of foul calls.

 

The Heat have done a good job holding onto the ball and forcing the Celtics into turnovers in the ECF. Despite the Celtics getting more assists per game and having the higher AST% for the series, the Heat have the superior assist to turnover ratio. The Celtics turn the ball over 15.3 times a game (16.1 TOV%), to the Heat’s 11.5 turnovers a game (12.1 TOV%). The Heat are deflecting the ball 21.3 times per game to the Celtics’ 14.

 

The Celtics have a 7.7 Net Rating for the series.

 

The Celtics have been the superior team in transition, (139.5 to 132.5 offensive rating in transition), despite both teams getting out in transition at almost an identical percentage per game, (separated by 0.4%).

 

Although the Heat and Celtics have an identical amount of offensive rebounds per game, the Celtics sport the higher OREB% and DREB%, grabbing 7.3 more rebounds a game overall than Miami.

 

The Cetics are beating out the Heat in a couple of hustle stats: charges drawn per game (in which Heat were 1st in total charges drawn this season) and loose balls recovered (on both ends).

 

Oddly enough, the Heat have a 25 Net Rating in 3 mins of clutch time this series (within 5 points, within 5 minutes left), if that means anything to you. Miami and Boston ranked 15th and 26th, respectively, in clutch Net Rating this season.

 

The Celtics’ defensive field goal percentage for the series is 3.2% lower (better) than the Heat’s, with the Celtics’ DFG% being almost identical to what it was during the season while the Heat’s is 1.7% worse than what it was this season.

 

Despite the turnover disadvantage, the Celtics have been the superior team in the halfcourt, posting a 102.5 offensive rating to the Heat’s 90.5, due to shooting about 38% from three and 47.6% in the mid-range, which is 2% and 6.6% better, respectively, than how they shot from those areas in the regular season. 

 

They’re also at a 60.1% true shooting for the series, which is 2.3% higher than what it was during the season. Whereas the Heat have a 53.4%, an entire 5% lower than their regular season number.

 

This has come as a result of the Heat shooting about 32% from three and 40% in the mid-range, which is 6.7% and 2.3% worse, respectively, than they did in the regular season. 

 

More importantly, where the Heat are taking their shots from has drastically changed in this series compared to what happened this season. The Celtics came into the Playoffs giving up the 2nd lowest percentage of shots at the rim and the 3rd highest percentage of mid-range shots, while giving up the lowest percentage of shots made in the mid-range.

 

They’ve stuck to their principles, with the Heat taking 9.3% more shots in the mid-range in this series than they did in the season, which has coincided with taking 4.9% fewer threes and 4.3% fewer shots at the rim.

 

The Celtics’ shot profile in this series is very similar to what it was during the season, taking 1% more of their shots from three, 1.6% fewer shots in the mid-range and 1.2% more shots at the rim against the Heat.

 

If you’re an optimistic Heat fan, you might think there could be a clear regression to the mean coming for the Celtics and on the other side of that coin, progression to the mean for the Heat.

 

If you’re a pessimistic Heat fan, you say all of this points to the Celtics executing their gameplan and outplaying and out-adjusting the Heat through 4 games.

 

All in all, the Heat return to Miami having done what they needed to in Boston, securing one gutsy ass win on the road, coming back to a best of 3 series, with 2 of those being at home, including Game 7, if needed. The Heat, despite all the noise, chaos, data and injuries, are in control of whether or not they return to the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons.

 

So for Heat fans anxiously awaiting demise, trying to get out in front of the pain of defeat and despair ahead of Game 5, in an eerily similar fashion to the paranoia pre-Game 5 of Heat-Sixers and other decisive Heat Playoff games in the past, in the words of Pat Riley ahead of the 2019 offseason where he, Andy Elisburg and the Miami Heat organization were able to trade Hassan Whiteside, draft Tyler Herro and finesse the Philadelphia 76ers out of an elite player and their best playoff performer, all without having cap space, prompting them to a Finals run and an ECF run in 3 seasons:

 

“There’s no obstacles. Well, there are lots of them, but there are none.”

******

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: For the Heat, 2 down, 2 to go

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For Boston, the refs, the ghost of Red Auerbach, and Jaylen Brown’s 41 piece weren’t enough to shake down the Heat minus their best player in the second half of Game 3. 

 

It was evident from the first couple of minutes that the Miami Heat weren’t going to get punked while surrounded by a sea of green.  Jayson Tatum looked for Max Strus on Boston’s first possession through a forced switch and drove to the hole but was provoked into a tough running floater that missed.  Kyle Lowry recovered the rock and pushed up the court to find Strus on the right wing for a triple.

 

Boston’s next possession. Al Horford had a mismatch in the left post with Lowry fronting for the entry feed.  Daniel Theis passed inside but the ball was batted away by Strus into Lowry’s hands for the takeaway.   

 

On the Celtics’ third try, Jaylen Brown was baited by Strus into taking an iso step-back 3-pointer at the top of the key.  It resulted in a rebound by Jimmy Butler, a quick outlet pass to Bam Adebayo who took the ball up court and crossed over Horford for a finishing cut at the rim.  

 

All five of Miami’s starters had scored on the first six shots of the opening quarter. Halfway through the period, the Boston fans had the same look on their faces as Heat supporters did during Thursday romping in Miami. Similar to the expression on Marlon Brando’s face at the end of Apocalypse Now when he whispers, “the horror, the horror.”

 

 The visiting team climbed to a 24-7 lead as it pummeled away at their opponent’s interior, converting 10/15 buckets in the box and 6/10 shots outside the square coming from transition opportunities and kickbacks from dribble penetration.

 

Adebayo has caught a lot of smoke for his poor play in Game 2, but to my understanding, he heard all of that noise.  Through the first two outings of the series, Miami’s big-man had only taken 10 shots from the field.  After the first half Saturday, Adebayo attempted 8/12 with his actions coming from attacking the paint in transition, a mix of post moves ending in a layup or hitting fall-away jumpers in the lane and pick ‘n’ roll.

 

It’s on Adebayo to be this dude every night.

 

Just before the conclusion of the first half, Miami had a 25-point lead, but their focus slipped.  The Celtics forced the Heat into low percentage and rushed shots, got out on the break, Horford hit an and-1 and Tatum splashed a corner banger with .5 seconds remaining, cutting the advantage to 15 heading into the third quarter.

 

There wasn’t much security in Miami’s lead before the final 24 minutes because Butler’s right knee was bothering him with inflammation.  Victor Oladipo started the third period in his place after sitting for a pair of quarters.  He was on the floor 71% of the second half, guarding his yard and disturbing Boston’s ball handlers. 

 

I thought Marcus Smart was done for this series as he screamed in agony and called for help following a failed attempt at an offensive rebound.  He challenged Lowry, bumping him in the air but Smart’s right foot didn’t come down flat and Miami’s point guard fell into his leg.  He could barely put weight on it when two trainers helped him hop to the locker room.

 

But then the broadcast showed a live feed of Smart running like Forrest Gump through the tunnel and back out to the court.  Some witch doctor cleared him to play with a sprained ankle.  As he made his way back to the floor, the crowd was hysterical, celebrating him like he helped raise the American flag at the top of Mount Suribachi in Iwo Jima. 

 

Past the midway point of the fourth, Tatum appeared to hurt his shoulder when Oladipo stripped the ball from him on a right cut.  He dropped to the floor as the next two possessions continued, frantically holding the base of his arm.  

 

I was about to pour one out for Tatum’s season but he was back on the court a couple of minutes later. For the second time in one half, Boston’s medical team performed some miraculous healing.  Perhaps they should be nominated for the Nobel Prize in Physiology or 

Medicine.  Or more likely the case, those theatrics are going to buy Tatum a long career in Hollywood when his playing days are over if he chooses.

 

I’m no doctor, but it sure was strange observing Tatum jump to the floor for a loose ball on his first possession back, or when he crashed into Adebayo’s screen with his right shoulder and knocked him over, feeling nothing.  

 

It’s important to note that for 47/48 minutes of regulation, Miami had meagerly taken seven free throws and Boston got 30.  It’s a very odd disparity.  The Heat attempted 34 field goals in the paint in Game 3 and Boston had 32.  

 

In crunch time, Jaylen Brown canned a deep tray from the left wing with help from an off-ball screen by Horford, making it a 12-0 Celtic run. Boston was down a point and Miami needed a basket like an adrenaline shot to the chest.  

 

But the Heat got away.  Strus curled from the corner to the right wing and nailed a 3-pointer with Adebayo setting a pindown in front of him, making Grant Williams go under, buying time for the release, and starting a 7-0 run that created too much separation for the Celtics to recover from.    

 

Without Butler in the second half, Adebayo and co. pulled off a signature dub on the road, avoiding being down a game in any series this postseason.  Two down, two to go.

 

*****

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Miami Dolphins Schedule: 5 Most Interesting Storylines

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The Miami Dolphins schedule was released last week, and it is riddled with interesting matchups. The Dolphins are getting two primetime games, along with several more that may be nationally televised.

Following their trade for star acquisitions, many view the Dolphins as playoff contenders. Thus, their schedule has five key storylines to look out for.

Tua vs. Herbert and Burrow

The Miami Dolphins hold matchups against the Bengals and Chargers, the former of which being on Thursday Night Football. These three teams have been tied together for over two years, when they were all competing for the number one pick and the rights to Joe Burrow, who went to Cincinnati.

Miami, of course, selected Tua Tagovailoa soon after, passing on Justin Herbert, who has looked stellar with the Chargers. In a “do or die” year for Tua, it’s important to see how his progress stacks up with the fellow quarterbacks of the 2020 draft.

 

Brian Flores Returns to Miami

Following the conclusion of Miami’s 2021 season, the Dolphins opted to fire Brian Flores. A combination of friction with personnel and a lack of production on the offensive side of the ball caused Miami to look in another direction. However, this was called into question when Flores filed a lawsuit against the team and the rest of the NFL.

Flores alleged several teams of racially motivated hiring and interviewing practices, and accused the Dolphins of offering him incentives to lose games in 2019. 

Unable to find a job in this cycle as a head coach, Flores joined the Steelers as a linebackers coach. Coaching Mike Tomlin’s star-studded defense, Flores will make his return to Miami on Sunday Night Football in Week 7.

 

Deshaun Watson in Hard Rock Stadium

The most prominent factor in Miami Dolphins schedule for early on is facing the Cleveland Browns. The constant rumors about a Deshaun Watson trade. It loomed over the team for a large portion of the year, and former coach Brian Flores refused to refute any potential trades. Thus, the pressure was on Tua Tagovailoa, with the constant worry of not having his job in the coming weeks.

Following the trade deadline, the weight seemed to be lifted from Tagovailoa’s shoulders. He performed significantly better and led Miami on a seven-game winning streak. 

With Miami’s new staff putting forth full confidence in Tagovailoa, they backed out of the Watson sweepstakes. The controversial quarterback was traded to the Cleveland Browns and leads one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.

Many looked at Watson, Jacoby Brissett, and Jakeem Grant, as three players that would be in Miami in 2022. However, all three are on Cleveland together and will come down to Hard Rock to face the Dolphins in Week 10.

 

Mike McDaniel Revenge Game

Following the firing of former coach Brian Flores, the Dolphins figured that they needed someone who could change the game on offense. Thus, they hired San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, who comes from Kyle Shanahan’s elite outside zone scheme.

McDaniel took several staff members from San Francisco on his trip to the east coast. Namely, receivers coach Wes Welker (who played for the Dolphins) and tight ends coach Jon Embree. These three, along with other assistants, will go back to their old stomping grounds in Week 13. Miami will fly to San Francisco where McDaniel will meet his mentor, and potentially show him that he was ready to move on.

 

Beating the Bills

When Tom Brady left New England to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a power vacuum in the AFC East opened up. Each team made aggressive attempts to get better with hopes of taking over in the division. Miami and Buffalo, namely, have made vast changes to their teams over the last couple of years.

Now Miami fans (and Buffalo fans) circle their calendars every time the Miami Dolphins schedule drops.

However, the Bills have been much more successful in their approach. Making timely additions of Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and other contributors have vaulted them to the top of the East. Miami, on the other hand, has been on the outside looking in.

This has largely been in part to the matchups between the two teams. Miami hasn’t beat the Bills since 2018, when Adam Gase as their head coach. It is up to Mike McDaniel and company to change this if they are to contend for a title in the coming years. They face the Bills in Weeks 3 and 15.  

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Tyler DeSena***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel  

 

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Can Jimmy Butler and the Heat go all the way?

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The Eastern Conference Finals began Tuesday night with Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat. What started as a close game and the Celtics ahead, ended with complete second-half domination by Jimmy Butler and the Heat.

Butler led Miami to a 118-107 victory thanks to his massive stat line. The Miami superstar ended Game 1 with 41 minutes played, 41 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. His offensive command was met with an equally paramount defensive showing. Butler recorded five steals and four blocks on Tuesday. The dominant play by Butler was complimented by the Celtics missing two of their most important players and Miami playing exceptional defense.

Looking back

Miami entered the third quarter down by eight points after Boston’s Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown refused to get down in the first half. It was a somewhat surprising effort by Boston, as they were without defensive player of the year, Marcus Smart (foot), and Al Horford (health and safety protocols).

Being down at the half sparked some crucial changes for Miami at halftime. The player-led adjustments in the locker room inspired an entirely new approach to the game in the third quarter. Miami’s defense stole the show, allowing their team to go on a 22-2 run to start the second half.  The Heat went on to score 39 third-quarter points, allowing Boston just 14.

Butler’s dominance continued into the fourth quarter when he blocked a huge three-point shot for Tatum, elevating the energy, and nearly sealing the game for the Heat. 

The Celtics almost came back in the fourth quarter. But in the end, Butler couldn’t be stopped, and Miami’s defense wasn’t going to back down.

Looking ahead

Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals will take place tonight on Miami’s home court. Miami is at a huge advantage due to the fact they have yet to lose at home in the playoffs. Bam Adebayo and the rest of the Heat’s core players have already shown they can contain Tatum and Brown. What will happen when the Celtics’ defensive star comes back? 

Marcus Smart is rumored to be returning to the lineup for Game 2. This will provide another challenge for Miami’s defense, and another limit for Miami’s offense at the hands of Smart’s unbelievable defensive abilities. Per Shams Charania, Al Horford’s status will be available for for Game 2.

If the Celtics want to keep their chances of advancement alive, they will have to win on Thursday to ensure they don’t get too far behind. One thing is for sure, Jimmy Butler and the Heat don’t make it easy to come back.

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Raina Rutschka***

  Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel

 

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Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Jimmy Butler Channeling Dwyane Wade

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As Jimmy Butler squared up at the free-throw line for his 17th and 18th attempts of the night, I wondered if the audience inside FTX Arena would shower him with roses. Miami was minutes away from a comeback win inspired by their marquee guy who had 40+ points in the playoffs for the fifth time as a Heatle.  

 

On the more taxing side of the court, Butler looked like a fighter jet gliding across different areas of the floor as he guarded his man or darted over to the paint and corners for help.  A possession earlier, JB tracked a left cut by Jaylen Brown starting at the top of the key and forced him to pick up his dribble by walling up with PJ Tucker. Next, Brown passed to Tatum at the strongside corner.  Butler then throttled towards Tatum’s airspace and spiked his triple into the stands.

 

I was about 20 feet from that play, standing at the start of the tunnel behind and next to some of the courtside seats.  The ball hadn’t made contact with a fan yet following the rejection, but the crowd erupted like Mount Vesuvius.  

 

It was the final stretch of Butler’s chef-d’oeuvre and he still looked possessed.  Similar to when an artist is spilling their soul into a microphone.  Like Jim Morrison when he sang “When the Music’s Over.”

 

The Heat had fallen into an eight-point hole heading into the intermission because they could barely hit a jumper from beyond the arc and were unable to stop Tatum from piercing the square on drives.  Aside from Butler, most of the production offensively came from the Heat’s sixth and seventh man, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo.

 

The three of them attempted 27 shots in the first half.  The rest of their six teammates who saw action had combined for 12.  

 

At postgame press, Butler sounded like a made man when he said to reporters, “By any means necessary…” when asked if his third 40 burger of the playoffs had tickled his fancy.

 

Butler was at the free-throw line 15 seconds into the second half.  Whatever observations were mentioned in the locker room during the break seemed to have invigorated him and the other starters.  Like a running back smashing through the line of scrimmage and obstacles in their path to the endzone, Butler lowered his head and blew past or through defenders for a layup or trip to the line.

 

Miami opened the third quarter on a 22-2 run with a steady diet of off-ball screens and pick and roll.  When Butler caught a pass in space, he baited defenders multiple times into biting on his pump-fake, earning more opportunities at the line after absorbing contact.  Who else have Heat fans seen perform that distinct move?  I’ll offer a hint: he’s getting a statue someday in front of the arena.  

 

Boston lost track of Butler routinely because of his off-ball pressure.  The ten eyes on the court usually trail the ball handler.  On curls to the wing, #22 would receive a handoff and bolt to the interior while attracting a pair of help defenders, leaving spots on the perimeter open.  Or he’d create a gap by flipping an off-ball screen so a teammate could get a running start towards the handoff.  

 

On post-ups, Butler swiftly spun to his right leaving his opponent confused in quicksand.

 

In the last 24 minutes, he registered 8/11 shots from the field and 11/12 freebies.  

 

“Jimmy Buckets” walked off the court like a rockstar exiting the stage after turning the crowd delirious while he channeled his predecessor, the great Dwyane Wade.  My sincerest apologies to Denzel Washington because when I think of “Man on Fire,” Butler is the first name that comes to mind.

 

******

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5 takeaways from Panthers Game 1 loss to Lightning

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SUNRISE – The Battle of Florida got revived for its 2022 edition on Tuesday night. 

 

The Panthers played host to the Lightning in Game 1 of round 2. Florida had the upper edge 5-on-5 but the ever deadly Lightning power play made Florida pay, again, tonight in Sunrsie. 

 

The Lightning took Game 1 by a score of 4-1.

 

Here’s the takeaways. 

Florida gave Tampa too many chances on the power play

Looking back at Game 1 of last year’s battle of Florida, the Lightning won a close game 5-4. Three of Tampa’s goals in that game came on the power play, with a 75% success rate.

 

Tonight, the Panthers once again gave the Lightning too many chances on the man advantage, with six opportunities. With so many chances, it was only a matter of time for Tampa to find the back of the net. 

 

On Tampa’s third power play of the night, Nikita Kucherov walked through the Panthers zone, made Aaron Ekblad bite on a fake to the outside, and froze Sergei Bobrovsky before feeding the puck to a wide open Corey Perry. Perry couldn’t have had an easier chance to score with the empty goal staring him in the face.

 

Tampa tied the game off the Perry goal.​​ The Lightning would finish the game with three power play goals while only scoring once 5-on-5.

 

In two straight Game 1’s against Florida, Tampa scored three times on the power play. They are too good up a man to have six chances in a game, they’ll make you pay.

Anthony Duclair gets his first career playoff goal

The Stanley Cup Playoffs have not been an easy place for Panthers forward Anthony Duclair. Entering tonight, he was goalless in 11 career playoff games. 

 

In Game 6 of the first round against the Capitals, Duclair was a healthy scratch. The Panthers went on to win that game and the series in overtime.

 

Duclair was back in the lineup for Game 1 against the Lightning, but the night didn’t get off to a good start for Duke. He took a high sticking penalty early in the first period with the game scoreless. Luckily for Duclair, Florida was able to kill off the penalty.

 

Duclair didn’t let the penalty affect him too much. With 5:59 left in the first, Jonathan Huberdeau sauced a pass from the boards to a streaking Duclair in front of the Lightning goal. Duclair fired the puck past Tampa goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, giving the Panthers a 1-0 lead.

 

This was Duclair’s first career Stanley Cup Playoff goal and it was a great time for him to get that burden off his back.   

Vasilevskiy slams the door, this could be a goaltending series

Before the series started, some would have said that this matchup called for plenty of goals. 

 

While the two sides have enough offensive firepower to scare pretty much every opponent in the NHL, the two Russian netminders had something to say about that.


Bobrovsky and Vasilveskiy kept this game close through two periods of play, with the score being 1-1 after 40.

 

 As the game reached the third period, both goalies had to stand on top of their crease as the shots continued to pile on. 

 

For Bobrovsky, he was getting peppered with shots when Florida was shorthanded. Eventually enough was enough and the pucks started going in.

 

On the other side of the ice, Andrei Vasilevskiy continuously prevented Florida’s onslaught of high quality chances go to waste as he turned into a brick wall, stopping everything in his way.

 

Tonight both goaltenders finished with over 30 saves in the game, and with out them, the score line could have been very different.  Vasilevskiy only gave up one goal on 34 shots, while Bobrovsky saved 32, only conceding one 5-on-5 goal.

 

Tampa’s goalie showed why he has two Stanley Cups tonight. He’s one of the best in the world and the Panthers are going to have to keep testing him if they want to try and crack the code.

No power play, no fun

It’s like reading the same book twenty times, the power play is not getting any better.

 

Florida was 0/18 in round one on the power play, tonight Florida was 0/3 on the man advantage, making their postseason record 0/21. 

 

When the game was tied at 1-1 and when the Panthers were down 2-1, the chances they had on the power play could have changed the game. However, once again, the Panthers could not find twine on the man advantage.

 

Tampa scored three times tonight on their six chances; Florida will lose the series if they don’t figure out their power play. 

Florida loses another Game 1 

Even with home ice, Florida can’t win their opening playoff games.

 

Last year they lost Game 1 to Tampa. This year they dropped Game 1 to Washington, also on home ice. 


Tonight was  no different, as the Panthers once again went down 0-1 in a series, at home. The last time Florida won a Game 1 was in 1997, when they beat the New York Rangers. Florida didn’t win a game after that in the series.  

 

Florida will have to advance to the next round if they want to test their luck again in a Game 1, but until then, they need to be ready for Game 2 on Thursday night. 

Battle of Florida Round 2: Series Preview

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For the first time in 26 years, the Panthers are on to the second round. After a hard fought series with the Washington Capitals, the road only gets tougher for the cats. The good news is that they finally got over the mental hurdle of winning a playoff series. Now, they must get over another mental hurdle: the battle of Florida.

Indeed, it is that the defending champs are waiting on the other side.

The battle of Florida, Panthers vs Lightning round two, commences this week. Both teams have a tremendous amount to prove in what will almost certainly be the premier matchup of the second round. Here’s how the teams match up.

Forward Battle

If there’s anyone out there who is unfamiliar with the embarrassment of riches the Lightning possess at forward, know this: they’re really good. Steven Stamkos is in the midst of a resurgent season in which he’s tallied a career high in points. 2019 MVP Nikita Kucherov has struggled with injuries this season, but had an impressive first round of the playoffs. Scoring wingers Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn round out an experienced and talented top six.

That list even excludes Brayden Point, who may be the player the Panthers struggle to contain the most. The speedy 26 year old will likely be sidelined for the first few games with a lower body injury.

As scary as that group looks on paper, the Panthers still likely have the edge in he forward department. Many of Tampa’s forwards are on the wrong side of 30 and starting to decline. They also lost much of their bottom six depth last offseason. While they did a decent job replacing much of it, this is a watered down version of the team they lost to last year.

The biggest hurdle for the Panthers will be limiting the Tampa power play. In last year’s battle of Florida, the lightning went 8/20 (40%) on the power play. That was the Panthers’ Achilles heel in that series. Tampa’s chemistry on the man advantage kept Florida on their toes throughout.

To mitigate their scoring chances on the power play, the focus for the Panthers should be clogging up the middle of the ice. It is vital they don’t overreact to a Stamkos or Kucherov slap shot from the outside, as that will open up passes to the slot area. As long as they stay disciplined on the penalty kill, the Panthers have the edge in the forward department.

Defense Corps

Without a doubt, the Lightning have the best defenseman in this series, and possibly the league, Victor Hedman. The 2018 Norris Trophy winner amassed 85 points (20 G 65 A) this past season, the highest of his career, while also playing shutdown defense. The panthers will notice his presence on the ice will will need to constantly account for it.

Their number two and three defensemen, Ryan Mcdonagh and Mikhail Sergachev, do have holes. They’re incredibly talented and reliable players in their own right, but they are slow footed. It does open some opportunities for the Panthers to get their speedy players some scoring chances against the two of them.

Their other three defensemen are solid, but nothing special. Jan Rutta, Cal Foote, and Zach Bogosian have all had their moments, but it would be unreasonable to expect for them to slow down the elite offense Florida boasts. They also do not offer enough offensively to counter their defensive limitations. It is certainly a step down from the defensive depth they saw against Washington, and it would behoove Florida to take advantage of that.

Goaltending For The Battle of Florida

The battle in net may be the most obvious advantage Tampa has in this series. Sergei Bobrovsky has been excellent for the Panthers thus far, but Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the league’s best goaltender for the past four years. He looked mortal in their first round series against Toronto, but shut the door in their closeout game seven.

On the series, Vasilevskiy said “many goals were scored because I couldn’t see anything. I’m pretty sure that was the game plan for them, to get in front.”

Screens are a goalie’s worst nightmare, regardless of their skill level. That needs to be an adjustment the Panthers make in this series. The panthers love passing to get clean looks at the net, but Vasy is too big and too mobile for that to be a viable primary scoring option. The goals in this series need to be dirty and gritty in front of the net goals. Easier said than done of course, but the Panthers are no strangers to finding different ways to score.

Final Prediction

This will likely be the best series of the second round, and I fully expect it to go the distance. Whoever comes out of this series will likely be the favorite to make it to the cup final. The Panthers improved greatly after last year’s defeat, and are ready to win at all costs. Tampa knows how to handle any situation they find themselves in, but they will feel the absences from players who moved on in the offseason. In this year’s battle of Florida, it will be the Florida Panthers in seven games.

 

***This article was originally published on the ATB Network by Samuel Schettrit***

 

Hussam Patel is a Miami Dolphins contributor and Lead NFL Draft analyst at Five Reasons Sports Network, Director of Scouting at PhinManiacs and Editor at Dolphins ATB. Follow him on Twitter at @HussamPatel

 

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5 Keys to Panthers-Lightning series

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One year after losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the playoffs, the Florida Panthers are back, looking for revenge in the second round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

 

The Battle of Florida part 2 is here, can the Panthers come out on top?


Here are my five keys to the Panthers-Lightning series.

Florida needs to score on the power play 

I’m not sure what was a more impressive feat in the first round, the fact that the Panthers went 0/18 on the power play, or how they were able to win the series in six games without scoring a single power play goal.

 

Florida was the only team in the first round to not score a goal, with the other 15 teams scoring at least two goals on the man advantage. 

 

As the Panthers progress through the playoffs, if they continue to strike out on the man advantage, their opponents aren’t going to let them hang around in games like the Capitals did.

 

Tampa had the 11th ranked penalty kill in the regular season, finishing the year at 80.56%. This is just slightly better than Florida’s first round opponent, the Washington Capitals, who were 12th in the league with an  80.44% pk. 

 

This matchup against Tampa should be a tight one, so finishing your power play chances will be huge in a best-of-seven series. 

Don’t give the Lightning too many chances on the man advantage 

Looking back at the 2021 first round series between these two sides, it was a power play goal fest.

 

In Game 1, Tampa won a tight one 5-4. They went 3/4 on the power play in that game.

 

In the series, the Lightning went 8/20 on the power play, scoring two or more PP goals in fifty percent of the games. 

 

Between Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov, there are plenty of Lightning players who can put the puck in the net on the power play.

 

The Lightning know how to use the power play to their advantage. Florida needs to play clean hockey to try and limit the amount of times Tampa gets looks on the power play.  

Florida needs another huge series from Sergei Bobrovsky

The two standout Panthers from round 1 were Carter Verhaeghe and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. In six games against Washignton, Bobrovsky had a .906 save percentage with a 2.79 GAA. He held the net the entire series and kept Florida in games with his great play.

 

Looking at last year’s postseason matchup against the Lightning, Florida’s goalie situation was anything but sure. The Panthers started three different goalies in their six games against Tampa; Bobrovsky, Chris Dreidger and Spencer Knight. Bobrovsky had a rough go against the Lightning, finishing the series with a .841 save percentage and 5.33 GAA in three games.

 

So far in this playoff run, Bobrovsky has looked like his former two-time Vezina winner self, not the guy who lost his job multiple times in the playoffs.

 

It’s not going to be an easy time trying to shut the door on guys like Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Co. but if Bobrovsky can play like he did in round 1, he’s going to help his team a lot this series. 

Tampa is going to have to get by without Brayden Point

When I was watching Tampa take the ice last May, the one player who I thought looked the most lethal on the Lightning offense was Brayden Point. Between his quick skating, and elusive slot shot on the power play, Point is a player who demands respect every time he touches the ice.

 

As of now, Point is listed as “highly doubtful” for Game 1, according to Lightning coach Jon Cooper. Point has not been ruled out of the series, however he is supposed to be day-to-day following Game 1. 

 

Point was injured in Saturday night’s Game 7 against Toronto with an apparent right leg injury. 

 

With the uncertainty revolving around their superstar forward’s availability for the series, the Lightning forwards are going to have some big skates to fill as the 26-year-old Point is above a PPG in the playoffs, with 77 points in 74 games over his career.

 

The Lightning are not a single superstar team, if anything they have four to five superstars on their roster, but anytime without Brayden Point is a huge loss for Tampa. 

Aaron Ekblad finally gets a crack at Tampa, can he be the difference?

Looking at the 2021 edition of the Battle of Florida and comparing it to the 2022 edition is like night and day.

 

Florida is a lot stronger than their 2021 team, with guys like Sam Reinhart, Claude Giroux, Ben Chiarot and Anton Lundell all getting their first taste of Panthers-Lightning playoff hockey. 

 

One guy who was on the team last season but was unable to play in the postseason was Panthers star defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who was out with an injury. 

 

This time, Ekblad is ready to go, and he will be a much needed weapon on Florida’s blueline this series. 

 

The Panthers missed Ekblad’s PK skill, his offensive abilities and his sound defensive play last year against Tampa. When Ekblad is on the backend he eats up most of the minutes and the rest of the defensive unit follows his lead. A healthy Ekblad may have helped Florida prolong last year’s series. Now, can he help them win it?

Marlins fans can be part of the solution but are part of the problem

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It’s amazing to look back and realize that South Florida has had Major League Baseball in its backyard for 30 years.

30 seasons, four ownership regimes, three memorable playoff appearances, and two championships.

One of those championships was being celebrated this past weekend in a series against the Milwaukee Brewers, managed by the very man who scored the winning run in Game 7 of the 1997 World Series.

The total combined attendance numbers on Saturday and Sunday were 24,670. To put that in context, the Marlins’ 3-1 win over the Seattle Mariners on April 30 had 29,010 fans in attendance, and that was because it was University of Miami theme night.

To further put it into context, the Tampa Bay Rays, who have spent their entire existence playing in an oversized Costco warehouse adjacent to Tampa, saw a higher attendance (20,832) on Sunday.

The 1997 team deserved better. The current team deserves better. The ballpark is 10 years old and is constantly being upgraded. The Marlins are the only team in baseball that has the players literally greet you at the gate. Jazz Chisholm is not just becoming a star but the envy of fans everywhere. Craig Mish said on his podcast that Chisholm might be a bigger star outside of Miami than in Miami and he might be right.

At some point, the issue of the fans and their constant lack of support must be brought up. No team in baseball is consistently successful without the support of fans . The fans here want the team to spend and succeed despite not going to the games and supporting that effort. Nobody wants to say it, but in South Florida, the fans are part of the problem when they should be part of the solution.

Is South Florida the only market in which the team must literally earn their fans by winning? The Florida Panthers had to win the Presidents Trophy, awarded to the team with the best regular season record, to get full crowds to their games.

Do the Marlins need to make the playoffs first for them to stop playing in empty stadiums? All the complaints one would hear about why nobody goes — the team is not competitive, the owner is cheap — are not unique to Miami, even if the fans like to think they are.

The Colorado Rockies franchise started the same year as the Marlins did. Over that time the have only been in the playoffs five times and in the World Series once. The owner is extremely unpopular and at times fans clamored for a change in ownership. Nolan Arenado, the Rockies’ biggest star since Todd Helton, demanded a trade a year after signing a big extension because of his frustration with the front office.

Do you think anyone in Denver trusts the Rockies’ front office? They signed Kris Bryant, a former MVP coming off another All-Star appearance, to a seven-year, $182 million contract. The move dumbfounded everyone. Why trade away one All-Star third baseman signaling a rebuild just to overspend for another in free agency. Rather than be excited, fans were rightfully confused.

Yet despite all that, the lowest attended game at Coors Field this season was 20,403 on a cold Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies. To get that number in Miami, the dogs need to be let in and Sebastian the Ibis needs to throw out the first pitch.

Not being good enough isn’t a worthy excuse to not show up either. The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off their worst season ever, with practically the same roster, and the only games that saw sub-10,000 attendance were when the Marlins were in town. And this isn’t some state of the art sports complex that alone attracts fans. It’s more than twice the age of LoanDepot Park and smells like a crayon box when the roof is closed. The Diamondbacks wanted to make the county pay for upgrades and were rumored to move to Las Vegas before the Oakland Athletics. And yet they still have better attendance numbers than a Marlins team that signed the World Series MVP in Cuban slugger Jorge Soler and are trying to win.

Want to talk about a lack of trust? Who at this point trusts the Cincinnati Reds? They tore down half of their roster. Phil Castellini, the team president and son of the owner, alienated his fans before the start of the home opener. Despite all of that, in a ballpark with 5,000 more seats, the Reds have seen more home games with 20,000+ fans (5) than the Marlins (2) this season. The last place Reds have had only two games this year with less than 10,000 fans — which has been a constant in Miami since they stopped fudging the attendance numbers.

Are the fans here still holding the past tear downs against the franchise? The first time led to a second World Series in five years. The Marlins instantly improved on offense with the second fire sale. The third rebuild led them to having their most talented outfield ever, and the most recent rebuild is being played out right before your eyes. It’s time to stop holding the grudge.

Miami has the reputation of being an unworthy sports town and in baseball, it’s one that has been earned by both franchise and fans. It doesn’t have to be that way. We’ve seen the energy that emanates from a full crowd in Miami. The two World Series are legendary. The World Baseball Classic was always at it’s best in Miami than anywhere else. The All-Star Game didn’t disappoint either. Even 2012 had good crowds, until the team collapsed in the summer.

Marlins fans need to drop the excuses and start supporting the team at the ballpark because they won’t reach your expectations without you.

Mateo’s Hoops Diary: Down Goes Philly

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True to form, Doc Rivers’ team got schooled in their building.  The first signs of the Philadelphia unfaithful turning on the team were midway through the third quarter as they booed the embarrassment inflicted on their eyes. 

 

Embiid hit the ground more than a soldier trying to evade gunfire.   The Beard looked like he was planning his postgame affairs.  And Rivers’ bald head was the only bright spot for Philly in Game 6.

 

With 9:13 left before the end, ESPN’s cameras caught a peek into the 76ers’ huddle.  Doc pleaded to his group, “Fight for this! Come on, guys. Fight for this!”  But his group looked as deflated as the Hindenburg.

 

Jimmy Butler– the one who slipped through their fingers-  was merciless leading his outfit and attacking the interior on cuts and torching Philly’s drop coverage in the midrange. With a minute left, #22 waved goodbye to the crowd as Miami inched closer to its eighth conference finals trip since 2005.

 

As expected, one of the excuses cited by the 76ers at post Game 6 press was that this version of their team had not been together for much time. James Harden said, “We tried to build a championship contender so fast, which I still think we are, we’re just missing a few pieces, but other than that you try to go for it right away…”

 

Sure, by default, their second-best player was not integrated into the rotations during training camp and had to learn the playbook at an advanced pace.  It probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference because when matters went sideways, Harden showed who he is at those times, too small for the moment.

 

This was the 10th time in the Beard’s career that he’s had zero free throw attempts in a playoff game indicating that his abilities as an escape artist are on par with Harry Houdini.

 

 The 76ers are no closer to winning a title than when Embiid and Ben Simmons first started sharing the court in 2017. This futile effort by their big-man suiting up four games might do the trick in convincing supporters or even ownership of that reality.  But what can’t be unremembered is that Embiid is a super freak who was used up by his club.  His face was battered, his thumb on his shooting hand was compromised and he was finessed into thinking this was worthwhile.

 

Before the 76ers left Miami, I asked Embiid at post Game 5 press about how much a spiked ball to the face deterred his interest in bludgeoning the rim.  He said, “I don’t know.  I’m just trying my best, honestly.”

 

Responding to another reporter, Embiid said he’d be called soft if he didn’t play, or if he did, they say he performed poorly.  Some might knock him for worrying about the media, but he’s human and words can be sharper than a spear.  

 

Right on cue, Charles Barkley claimed Embiid was ineffective because he was distracted by not winning the MVP award.  For reasons I don’t understand, people listen to Barkley give his drivel on the game when all he does is dumb down the audience.  If only he had a clue into how much Embiid cares.  

 

 Joel’s honest answers further enlightened my understanding of him as a warrior.  It made me uncomfortable to watch him squirm on the ground in pain as he was attended by his team. Then he got up.  And he still languished in the second half of Game 5.

 

Rivers did not consider sitting his best man the rest of that night following the close call.  I know because I asked him and sternly said no.

 

In the second half of Philly’s downfall, the 76ers couldn’t stop Miami from getting two feet in the paint, where Miami made 15/21 baskets.  The home team was outscored 50-42 in the final 24 minutes.

 

The playoffs never fail to show the public which teams are for real and who thought they were.  Miami’s got next with the winner of the Boston-Milwaukee series that’s 3-2 in favor of the champs.  If only Philly could have had more to say about it. 

 

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