Marlins playoffs

5 Keys for Marlins in Playoffs Wild Card Round

/0 Comments/in /by

The Miami Marlins are back in the playoffs for the first time in 17 years when their Wild Card series begins versus the Chicago Cubs. Although the Cubs are favored and expected to win, the Marlins have the makeup to not only make this an interesting series, but to win the three-game set and advance.

The Marlins enter the postseason with a 31-29 record, the franchise’s first winning season since 2009. They finished second in the NL East but sported a polarizing minus-41 run differential through 60 games.

The Cubs, meanwhile, lead the NL Central almost wire-to-wire, despite it being a division with three other playoff teams. Chicago finished with a 34-26 record and a plus-25 run differential, but they sputtered to end the season. The Cubs were 4-6 over their last 10 with a minus-6 run differential.

These two teams are evenly matched and sport similar strengths. Here’s a look at five keys for the Marlins this Wild Card series in the playoffs.

Marlins Playoffs: Getting Ground Ball Outs

Yesterday, the Marlins announced their starting rotation for the three-game series in the playoffs. Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 39 K) will start Game 1. Sixto Sanchez (3-2, 3.46 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 33 K) will take Game 2. Pablo Lopez (6-4, 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 59 K) gets Game 3 if there is one.

Marlins playoffs

The Miami Marlins starting rotation for the Wild Card round of the playoffs. (Photo Credit: Miami Marlins/Twitter.com)

Starting pitching remains the Marlins’ strength this season. While the team’s overall ERA stands at 4.86 (21st in MLB), if you take the collective ERA of the 15 pitchers who threw the most innings this season, that number drops to 4.23, which would be 12th in MLB.

Marlins starters square off against an inconsistent Chicago offense. Although the names are well-known, the Cubs lineup has posted just a .220 batting average (27th) and scored 265 runs (20th). They have a strikeout-rate of 25.7 percent, which is 14th in the league, and a chase-rate of 27.5 percent (16th). Their 568 strikeouts were fifth-most in the NL.

The Cubs lineup lacked the consistency seen in years past, but it’s loaded in experience. They relied a great deal on the long ball, connecting on 74 home runs, including 30 at home.

Marlins starting pitchers need to limit walks and keep the ball within the friendly confines of Wrigley Field if they want to be successful in these playoffs. Alcantara sports a 50.4 percent ground-ball rate, and that’s the lowest rate of Miami’s three starters. Sanchez’s ground-ball rate is 58 percent and Lopez’s is 52.8.

Getting those ground ball outs will be key for Marlins pitchers this series.

Leveraging the Bullpen

The Marlins used a staggering 37 different pitchers this season, including 28 different relievers. Overall, the bullpen ERA finished at 5.50, fourth worst in the league. A closer look at that number reveals it as a flawed measure.

17 of those 28 relievers pitched less than eight innings out of the ‘pen but surrendered a whopping 65 earned runs over 59.2 innings combined. Hence, the inflated bullpen ERA. If you take the Marlins top-five relievers, you’ll see a group that posted a 2.00 ERA over 85.2 innings pitched. That would be the best mark in the league by far.

Brandon Kintzler, Yimi Garcia, Brad Boxberger, James Hoyt and Richard Bleier sport a mix of stuff and experience and should be able to save games if given the opportunity. As a group, those five are 13 for 18 in save opportunities. As a team this season, the Marlins are 29-0 when leading after six innings, so the bullpen has come through.

Marlins manager Don Mattingly will need to leverage these top-five arms to win this series.

Marlins Playoffs: Finding the Offense

One of the frustrations for the Marlins this season has been an inconsistency on offense. The Marlins score 4.38 runs-per-game (21st in MLB). The offense overall is middle-of-the-pack in batting average (.244; 17th) and OPS-plus (92; 19th). However, Miami has been shut out a league-high seven times.

Miguel Rojas (.304/.392/.496) and Jesus Aguilar (.277/.352/.457) have been the two best hitters in the lineup. Brian Anderson has also consistently got on base and has hit the ball well with a .810 OPS.

As a team, the offense did its best work with two-outs. Their .251 average with two-outs is fifth-best in the NL and their 122 runs scored with two-outs are sixth-best in MLB. With runners-in-scoring-position and two-outs, their .256 average is sixth-best in the league, and their 90 RBI are fifth-most.

The Marlins have a limited history with Chicago’s Game 1 and Game 2 starters.

Versus Kyle Hendricks, Starling Marte sports the most experience with 26 at-bats and six hits. Corey Dickerson is 4-for-16. Rojas, Anderson and Lewis Brinson are a combined 5-for-34. Jorge Alfaro has had some success, going 3-for-7.

Versus Yu Darvish, Marte and Dickerson are a combined 9-for-24 with three doubles and two home runs. Rojas, Anderson and Brinson are 2-for-14. Chad Wallach is 1-for-4 with a home run versus Darvish.

The Marlins offense will need to find some level of consistency to be successful during these playoffs. They’ve struggled versus soft-tossers like Hendricks, but the key will be getting on base.

Keeping the Running Game Going

The Marlins playoffs success will certainly hinge upon not only getting on base, but also putting pressure on Chicago’s defense once they do so. Miami sports a great deal of speed throughout the roster and regular lineup.

In 2020, the Marlins stole 51 bases over 60 games, which was the second-highest total in MLB. The team even stole home three times this season. This approach is a philosophical change for the Fish, considering the 2019 club stole just 55 bags in 162 games.

With Marte, Rojas and Jon Berti, the Marlins deploy speed that could be effective versus a soft-tossing pitcher like Hendricks. Cubs catcher Willson Contreras threw out nine of 26 runners this season, but the Marlins can be selective with their moves. In addition to the regular starters, Mattingly can also inject speed with Brinson, Monte Harrison and Magneuris Sierra as potential base-stealers late in games.

Putting the pressure on the Cubs defense will force Chicago to execute and could lead to the Marlins scratching out an extra run or two. And runs will be at a premium in this playoffs series.

Defense Wins Championships

The Marlins defense features a number of athletic, rangy players that catch the ball well. Miami sports plus-defenders across a number of positions, including Anderson at third base, Rojas at short and Marte in center.

As a whole, the Marlins registered a .980 fielding percentage this season with 40 errors (seventh-most). While those numbers aren’t great, the turnover in the roster led to some of these defensive issues.

Marlins pitchers induced 55 double plays this season, which was second-most in MLB. Marlins relievers lead the league with 32 double plays.

One interesting choice Mattingly will have to make will be who starts at catcher. Alfaro produces more offensively, and can control Chicago’s running game, but Wallach is the better defensive receiver. Wallach seems to have developed a positive chemistry with Lopez and Alcantara of late. That chemistry could be key.

In recent years, World Series champions have sported more defensive-minded players behind the plate to great success.

Marlins Playoffs: Prediction

The Marlins have a tall task ahead of them, but if Alcantara can help them win Game 1, the Marlins should be able to win this playoff series in three games. The opportunistic offense will need to come through, but, as they have all year, this Marlins group is resilient and believes in itself.

Alcantara said during Spring Training, “We’re going to surprise people.” And that could very well continue for the Marlins in these playoffs.

Marlins vs Cubs Preview

/0 Comments/in /by

The Marlins at long last find themselves in the playoffs. The Fish are 2/2 in World Series runs in their previous attempts, but this streak should not be of concern. There is a new winning culture here in Miami that will hopefully lead to a level of consistency we have never seen before. This Wednesday, the Marlins kick off a 4-game series versus the Chicago Cubs. We all know what happened the last time these two teams squared up in the postseason in ‘03. This should be fun.

 

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching

 

Well, fun for the pitchers that is. Both the Marlins and Cubs find themselves with solid staff. Looking first at the Marlins, a 1-2-3 punch of Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.00 ERA), Sixto Sanchez (3-2, 3.46 ERA), and Pablo Lopez (6-4, 3.61 ERA) is definitely a scary sight for anyone to see, especially in a 3-game series. These guys are young, electric, and hungry, and on the right day they can shut down any offense thrown their way. The Cubs are no slobs on the mound either, arguably having a more talented staff. Yu Darvish (8-3, 2.01 ERA) made a Cy Young run, Kyle Hendricks (6-5, 2.88 ERA) did Kyle Hendricks’ things. And if those two aren’t enough, the Cubs have Alec Mills (5-5, 4.48 ERA) who threw a no-hitter this year, and postseason hero Jon Lester (3-3, 5.16 ERA) to pitch third. This will be a clash of 6 extremely talented arms, and most likely the winner of that battle will win the series.

 

Marlins Bats: Alive or Dead?

 

The Marlins have struggled all year to find consistency at the plate. The Marlins have the 17th best on-base percentage (.319) in baseball. The question is whether they will be able to score once the runners get on. Being 2nd in stolen bases (51), the Marlins are going to need to utilize their speed on the base paths. Runs will not come easy in Chicago. The marlins find themselves at the bottom of the league in slugging percentage and.OPS, so they have to make each runner count. If they can play small ball and take advantage of small mistakes made by the Cubs, they will have a shot to put up enough runs for Sandy, Sixto, or Pablo to hold on.

 

Let’s enjoy this

 

We waited 17 years to experience a Miami Marlins playoff game. That’s a lot of time, and we don’t know what will happen next year. Game 1 starts Wednesday at 2 pm on ABC. Tune in, have fun, and watch the Fish “Ride the Wave.”

A Marlins Playoff Berth On Jose Day

/1 Comment/in , /by

I have been a Marlins fan since I was born. At the ripe age of 2 years old, my family took me to the ‘03 parade. I have had season tickets 4 different times, found myself at hundreds of games, and bought way too many MLB.TV packages. In 2013, my passion for the team evolved further through the game of Jose Fernandez. I watched every start, going to see him on my birthday twice. I was hooked to Marlins baseball and their firecracker Cuban righty. I still remember the morning of September 25th, when we all found out the horrific news. As I watched MLB Network, I didn’t comprehend, rather couldn’t believe my eyes. I slowly walked into my parents’ room to tell them the news. Tears. 

 

September 25th marked the loss of a Miami icon. One that would have sparked the young Miami Marlins into the stratosphere. It was a date that Marlins fans would hold close to heart. A hero to countless Cuban immigrants and thousands of young South Florida pitchers (like myself), Jose Fernandez lost his life in a boating accident.

 

Up until yesterday, September 25th served as a reminder of the man we lost. There is and always will be a sense of dread on that day, as we remember the life Jose brought to the world. The stories. The strikeouts. The smile. 

 

Now, September 25th will be a reminder of Jose and the first time in 17 years that the Marlins have made the playoffs. Like it was out of a movie, we clinched this berth on #JoseDay. Call it our “Angels in the Outfield” moment. Jose may be gone, but his legacy will live on forever, especially now.

 

How did this full-circle moment happen?

 

More specifically, how did we even make the playoffs? The Marlins were 57-105 last year, and no that is not a typo. We were that bad. And statistically, we didn’t evolve that much this year. Statistically, we are the worst MLB team to ever make the playoffs. With a run differential per game of -.7 runs, we find ourselves at the bottom of statistics such as .OBP and WHIP, two of the most commonly cited stats that determine team success. Was it luck? Was it Jose pushing for us from above? Maybe, but there are two central determinants in this team’s unlikely success: culture change and shortened season.

 

Culture change

 

Jose Fernandez helped to start evolving Marlin’s culture in his short time with the team. When we lost him, there was a need to start over. Whatever your thoughts are on the trades that followed, the Marlins organization identified what had to be done. Keep the players who brought in to the change and pick up players who did as well. Miguel Rojas was the centerpiece as he has been one of the most vocal advocates for what this team has done. Pieces such as Lewis Brinson, Starling Marte, and Sixto effectively pushed the culture forward as each player bought in. This shift can be seen in Jorge Alfaro’s description of the Miami Marlins as a “family.” They bought in and told themselves they could do it, and here they are.

 

Shortened season

 

This goes hand in hand with culture. When every individual buys into a singular mentality, they find themselves working towards a collective goal. The opportunity to effectively start at Game 102 tied with every team in the league allowed this culture to develop artificially. The hot 7-1 start augmented these internal beliefs across the organization. It pushed them forward, and it told them that this pipe dream was possible. More and more players bought in. And here we are with October baseball in our near future.

 

Final Thoughts on the Marlins Run

 

Jose Fernandez would be smiling looking down at this team. These guys practiced what he preached every time he took the field. Play hard and have fun. Don Mattingly should be the Manager of the Year without question, due to his ability to impart the shift in culture.

 

September 25th will no longer be a day of grief, but rather one that shows us anything is possible. Jose would be proud.

 

Marlins postseason

Wild Numbers from Marlins Postseason Push

/1 Comment/in /by

The Miami Marlins clinched their first postseason berth since 2003 last night. Their 4-3 victory over the New York Yankees, coupled with Philadelphia’s 6-4 loss to the Rays, punched the Marlins’ ticket. In a 60-game rollercoaster of a season, the Marlins strapped in and produced some of the most incredible numbers in the sport.

 

Baseball is a game of numbers. Books have been written and movies have been made about them. Organizations sport robust analytics departments dedicated to digging through and pulling meaning from the numbers.

Here’s a look at some of the wild numbers from the Marlins postseason push.

16

It’s been 16 seasons since the last Miami Marlins team made the postseason. With Friday night’s win, the Marlins punched their playoff ticket for the first time since 2003 and for just the third time in franchise history. The other two times, the Marlins entered the postseason as a Wild Card and went on to win the World Series. In 2020, they finished second in the NL East, as they did in 1997 and 2003.

16 was also the jersey number of Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez, who passed away four years ago yesterday. Fernandez’s infectious spirit during his playing days brought joy to so many, and his loss changed the course of this franchise. Marlins manager Don Mattingly admitted the day as an emotional one, prior to the game. Mattingly said his wife sent him a picture of him and Jose, and also revealed he’s worn a bracelet with the #16 on it ever since. Mattingly also adjusted his workouts routines to be 16 reps instead of 15.

“It would be something that would be special,” Mattingly said pregame of clinching a playoff spot on the day Jose passed. And that’s exactly what this club did.

21

The Marlins have used 21 rookies this season during their improbably playoff run. This youth movement helped Miami navigate the tough times in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak to start the season. These players injected energy and life into the club and helped the Marlins rally from the difficult situation to start.

Of the 21 rookies, 18 of them made their MLB debuts. The 18 debuts came within the team’s first 44 games. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, entering 2020, no team in Major League history had as many debuts over a team’s first 60 games.

23

The Marlins started the 2020 season by packing for a five-day trip. The road trip should have taken the team from Atlanta to Philadelphia, then home for their season opener. Unfortunately, that five-day sojourn morphed into a 23-day odyssey.

The COVID-19 outbreak quarantined the club in Philadelphia for more than a week and more than half of the roster needed to be supplemented with moves. 18 players were placed on the injured list, and when the team resumed play in Baltimore, more than half of the Opening Day roster had been turned over.

Only five players have been on the active roster the entire season: Jesús Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Brad Boxberger, Brandon Kintzler and Pablo López.

46.5

The Marlins seem to do their best work in the clutch. Entering the weekend, the club has scored 46.5 percent of their runs with two outs this season, the highest such percentage in MLB.

Before Friday’s game, the Marlins entered batting .249 (151-for-607) this season with two outs, seventh-highest mark in the Majors and fifth in the NL. Miami’s .343 OBP with two outs is fifth best in the Majors in 2020. These clutch hits buoyed the Marlins postseason push throughout the season.

50

The Marlins have stolen 50 bases this season, second most in the Majors behind only San Diego (52). Have been caught just once in their last 20 stolen base attempts. Miami stole 55 bases in all of 2019, good for 23rd overall. The Marlins have led the Majors in stolen bases three times previously: 2000 (168), 2002 (177) and 2003 (150).

Jonathan Villar had nine steals with the Marlins, and Jon Berti has eight this season. Monte Harrison has six. No other player has more than five, but 13 different Marlins have stolen at least one bag.

The Marlins stolen home three times this season. MLB’s other 29 teams have done it a total of once.

61

The Marlins have used 61 players this season. The team has made 175 roster moves. Of the 61 players to don a Marlins uniform during this postseason push, 37 have been pitchers, including 28 different relievers and 13 different starting pitchers.

The Marlins started nine different pitchers in their first nine games this season, setting a new MLB record in that regard. And 52 of the team’s 59 games have been started by pitchers 25-years-old or younger.

105

In 2019, the Marlins went 57-105. The sported the worst record in the National League and were among the worst teams in all of baseball. Injuries and ineffective play littered the season, but in 2020, everything changed. With this postseason berth, the Marlins become just the second team in MLB history to go from 100-plus losses in the previous year to the playoffs. The 2019 Marlins are the worst team by record to ever clinch a playoff spot the following season.

The Marlins had a less than one percent chance to make the playoffs, and most baseball pundits picked the Marlins to finish last in the NL East. The team was called “bottom feeders” by some and rallied around that label, making it a motto.

“It’s pushed us,” Lewis Brinson said Saturday morning. “We knew going into Spring Training that no one believed in us.”

Some other Marlins Postseason Numbers

  • The Marlins have 58 home runs in 58 games in 2020, averaging a homer every 32.12 ABs. It’s the team’s second-highest such mark in the last 12 years, behind 2017 (28.88).
  • The Marlins are 19-13 (.613) on the road this season, the third-best road winning percentage in the Majors and the third-most road wins in behind the Dodgers (22) and Rays (20). The Marlins had a 27-54 (.333) road record in 2019, and have secured a winning road record for the first time since 2009 (44-37, .543).
  • Due to makeup games, the Marlins will play 34 road games in 2020 – 57% of their scheduled contests.
  • The Marlins are 11-8 (.579) in one-run games this season. That’s tied with Milwaukee for most one-run wins among NL teams in 2020. Miami had 9 one-run wins in all of 2019.
  • The Marlins have been able to come out victorious when they have the lead late in games, going 27-0 in contests in which they are up on their opponents entering the sixth inning. According to Elias, only one team – Atlanta at 27-0 – has as many such wins without a loss in 2020.

These numbers come courtesy of the Miami Marlins and MLB.com.

Marlins Yankees

Marlins Make Playoffs With Win Over Yankees

/0 Comments/in /by

The Miami Marlins defeated the New York Yankees 4-3 in 10 innings on Friday night. The win, coupled with a 6-4 loss by the Philadelphia Phillies, put the Marlins in the postseason for the first time since 2003.

It took an ace-level performance from Sandy Alcantara, a clutch pitch from Brandon Kintzler and timely defense.

Prior to the Yankees series, Alcantara sounded very confident. “They got to fight me a lot,” he said of the potent New York lineup.

“I just want to be the guy,” Alcantara said. He wants to go as deep as he can in every game, establish consistency and attack the hitters. Each of those were evident in his start on Friday.

Alcantara went 7.1 innings, surrendering six hits, two walks and two earned runs, while striking out nine. He struck out former Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton three times. He induced three double plays throughout the game, helping minimize many of the Yankee threas.

 

Alcantara’s ace performance lifted the Marlins, who had lost four of five entering Friday. Alcantara was visibly frustrated in the dugout after getting pulled from the game with one out in the eighth. He admitted afterwards that he’d hoped to finish the game, but he respected manager Don Mattingly’s decision to go to the bullpen.

Marlins Bullpen Helps Secure Win Over Yankees

The Marlins bullpen needed to secure five outs, and although Yimi Garcia allowed a game-tying single in the eighth, they held on when needed. Brad Boxberger walked Stanton before getting Luke Voit in ground into a double play.

Marlins closer Brandon Kintzler came on in the 10th for a save opportunity, one night after his first career six-out save. Kintzler worked into trouble, ultimately loading the bases with one out. But facing DJ LeMahieu, one of the league’s best hitters, Kintzler induced a game-ending double play.

Despite LeMahieu being a great hitter, Kintzler knew he could get one of the best hitters in the league to put the ball on the ground.

“He did exactly what I wanted him to do, exactly what I planned, exactly what I had seen him do before,” Kintzler said. “The guy’s a great hitter, but that’s just for me a great situation.”

 

While the story of the night was pitching, the Marlins offense did just enough to secure the victory. Former Yankee Garrett Cooper put the Marlins ahead early with his three-run home run in the first inning.

From there, it was a struggle. The Marlins managed only three hits for the night and were 1-of-8 with runners-in-scoring-position, ultimately stranding seven on base. Jesus Aguilar, who’d flies out with the bases loaded in the second and stranded runners and the corners in the seventh, came through with a clutch sacrifice fly in the 10th to give Miami the lead.

Monte Harrison scored the go-ahead run but did so after scrambling back to third base on a botched run-down by the Yankees. All told, New York committed four fielding errors, including a crucial one in extras.

The resilience of the Marlins club was on display through the night, as it has been throughout the season. The win over the Yankees propels the Marlins to the playoffs for the first time since 2003, snapping the second-longest postseason drought in MLB (16 seasons).

The Marlins Maintain Playoff Hopes With Win

/0 Comments/in /by

With the season on the brink, amid pouring rain in Atlanta, GA, the Miami Marlins turned to Pablo Lopez. After much heralded pitching prospects Trevor Rogers and Sixto Sanchez failed to get the Marlins back on track, the 24-year-old veteran in his third season settled the Marlins on the mound and gave the team the opportunity to stop the skid and maintain their hold on a playoff spot. The Marlins managed a 4-2 victory over the Braves in what was the latest most important game of the topsy-turvy 2020 season.

Lopez went five innings and surrendered only two hits while piling up six strikeouts, including the 200th of his MLB career.

“Obviously, every game is important in a short season like this one,” López said. “We knew coming into today that this is the biggest game yet. We’ve seen the Braves the last three days. Obviously, it’s a tough matchup.”

The Marlins entered Thursday night’s matchup losers of four straight and watched their lead in the playoff race dwindle to 0.5 games. With the Phillies nipping at their heels, Miami turned to Lopez, who’s been one of the few constants this season, and he turned in one of the biggest performances of the season.

But he wasn’t alone. The offense, which has sputtered of late and has been maddeningly inconsistent throughout the season, found just enough of a rhythm. The bullpen also turned in a critical performance.

The Marlins Offense Came Through in the Clutch

In the sixth inning, tied at zero, the Marlins offense went to work. Brian Anderson reached on an error, then Garrett Cooper singled, moving Anderson to third. A pair of strikeouts followed and the Marlins seemed like the same old story of lackluster offense would hold true in this spot. But backup catcher Chad Wallach came through.

Wallach, starting thanks to his recent chemistry with Lopez on the mound, punched an 2-0 offering from Ian Anderson into right field. That scored Anderson and moved Cooper to third.

Jon Berti came to the plate and continued Miami’s two-out magic by ripping a two-run double to left. The Marlins held a 3-0 lead entering the top of the sixth.

The Bullpen Held On

Marlins manager Don Mattingly turned to Yimi Garcia earlier than usual when he summoned the right-hander from the ‘pen in the sixth. Garcia walked Marcell Ozuna, but proceeded to get Travis d’Araud to line out, then registered a pair of strikeouts of Ozzie Albies and Adam Duvall.

In the seventh inning, Jesus Aguilar extended the Marlins lead with a home run off AJ Minter. It was Aguilar’s eighth homer of the season.

James Hoyt and Richard Bleier combined work through a tense seventh before Marlins closer Brandon Kintzler entered in the eighth to attempt a six-out save. Brad Boxberger had loaded the bases without recording an out, and although Kintzler surrendered a pair of runs on a Dansby Swanson single, he limited the damage to two.

“He comes in a tough spot,” Mattingly said of Kintzler after the game. “I’d trade outs for runs at that point. Obviously, a great job getting us through there, and he had to go through their top of the order in the ninth.”

Kintzler notched his first career six-out save and the 60th save of his career with the Marlins win.

“That was a really big win,” Wallach said afterwards. “We’ve been doing that all year. When we’ve gotten down and may have lost a couple of games, we’ve battled back when we’ve needed to. We played a great game, and that’s just something we’ve done all year. Hopefully, we can continue it going on.”

Playoffs on the Line in New York

The Marlins (29-28) head to New York for a crucial three-game series against the Yankees. Miami holds a slim one-game lead over the Phillies (28-29) for second place in the NL East and a guaranteed playoff spot. The Phillies are in St Petersburg to face the Tampa Bay Rays this weekend. The Marlins hold the tiebreaker over Philadelphia and their magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to two.

The Marlins have Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.12 ERA) taking the mound against the Yankees in an effort to possibly clinch their first postseason berth since 2003.

Marlins Playoff Odds Decreasing

/0 Comments/in , /by

Honestly, I think we are all getting worried. The Marlins 9-4 loss last night versus the Braves marks their 4th straight loss in must-win games. The Fish fall to 28-28 and the Phillies climb to 28-29. This means that a Marlins loss tonight would even up the Phillies and Marlins, as the Phillies do not play. The Wild Card seems unlikely as well because the Giants and the Reds both sit a game above .500. Let’s first analyze last’s nightmare before we take a look at possible ways the Marlins can still pull this off.

 

Last 4 games we took an L, but tonight we bounce back… hopefully

 

The Marlins went into last night with Sixto on the mound. Most of us expected a low scoring pitching battle between Cy Young candidate Max Fried and our gunslinging young ace. Instead, Sixto allowed 4 runs over 3 innings, and Max Fried left the game after just 1 inning (injury) allowing 2 runs. The Marlins just can’t outhit this Braves lineup, so if the pitching falters, we lose, as seen in all 3 of these games. Josh A. Smith got the loss, allowing 5 runs in his 1 inning of work, allowing the Braves to turn a 4-4 tie into a 9-4 lead. Sadly, this showing from the Marlins in this game and others recently have highlighted a central issue within the team: their youth. It was hidden at the younger points of the season behind our new veterans, but as the season is coming to a close, it is evident that this team just may not be ready. We can’t expect all of our young guys to play like Tyler Herro. And that’s okay.

 

Playoff Possibilities

 

At this point, the only thing the Marlins should be worried about is getting 2nd in the NL East. The Wild Card seems like a pipe dream the way we are playing when put in contrast to the way the Reds and Giants are playing. Let’s instead take a look at what has to happen to get 2nd in the East. 

 

The Phillies are 28-29. The Marlins are 28-28. The tiebreaker would be the season head-to-head, in which the Marlins are up 7-3. We just have to tie the Phillies. The Phillies have 3 games versus the Tampa Bay Rays. If they go 3-0, we must go 3-1. If they go 2-1, we must go 2-2. If they go, 1-2, we must go 1-3. If they get swept, we can lose all 4. The Marlins clubhouse wants to control their own destiny though, and that can be done by winning 3 or more games in their final 4. The magic number is still 3, and we all know it.

 

Marlins vs Braves Finale

 

The Marlins look to salvage one win versus the Braves tonight as Pablo Lopez takes on Ian Anderson at 7:10 pm. This is shaping to be a fun last weekend of baseball. It all comes down to this.

Marlins Magic Number at 3

/0 Comments/in , /by

No, the Marlins did not win. No, they did not even come close. Another blowout win for the Braves puts the Marlins run differential at -37. Granted that differential is being dragged down by the 4 games in which the Marlins have been obliterated. Luckily, and most importantly, the Marlins’ magic number drops to 3, with 5 games remaining. The Phillies lost both games of their doubleheader versus the Nationals. 

Mattingly isn’t worried

 

“Once you get in with this format that we have — you know if you get in and you have pitching, you have a chance,” said Mattingly after last night’s tough loss. Even though there have been a few outlier games, Pitching has been the most consistent aspect of this team. Tomorrow, the Marlins’ present and future ace Sixto Sanchez takes the mound. Mattingly seems at ease because if the Marlins do make the postseason, Sixto, Sandy, and Pablo are a very dangerous 1-2-3 punch. Urena faltered last night, allowing 4 earned over 6 innings of work, but he is a perfect 4th in the rotation: a veteran with good stuff. It will be interesting to see who gets the 5th spot. Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers serve as the most likely choices, but both have had their recent struggles. If this team can push itself into the postseason, a hot pitching streak could push them further.

5 games left

 

5 games determine if the Marlins break the 17-year long streak without a playoff appearance. I have not consciously experienced a Marlins’ playoff game because I was about 2 years old during the ‘03 run. After years of season tickets, thousands of games on TV, and hundreds of thousands of MLB.TV updates, I am ready. The Marlins are ready. It is time for them to buckle down and win 3 of these games and prove that this team is capable of the improbable. Miami is ready to see their baseball team actually compete. Sixto leads the charge tonight.

Marlins vs Braves, Phillies vs Nationals

 

Yes, we have Sixto on the mound; but the Braves have their Cy Young candidate Max Fried. Game 3 will be no easier than games 1 and 2. The Fish are going to have to wake up their slumbering bats and put together good at-bats to get there. The Phillies play the Nationals again. Every Phillies’ loss is a Marlins’ win, so pay attention to both games. Marlins play the Braves at 7:10 PM and the Phillies take on the Nationals at 6:05 PM.

Marlins Lose to Braves 5-4

/4 Comments/in , /by

The Marlins played in the first game of a huge 4-game series with the Braves last night. They ended up losing the game 5-4, but their grit was evident throughout the game.  They moved closer to a playoff berth, as the Washington Nationals beat the Philadelphia Phillies. This keeps the Marlins in 2nd place in the NL East with 6 games remaining in the year. The 6 most important games in 15 years of Marlins’ baseball.

 

Explosive start, slow ending

 

The Marlins came out swinging in this game. 3 early runs on a bunch of singles put the Marlins in an advantageous position, but they failed to capitalize the rest of the way only putting up 1 more run. The biggest missed opportunity came with Starling Marte at the plate in the 8th, as he lined a 111 MPH swing straight to Austin Riley to get the Braves out of a bases-loaded jam. This rocket off the bat had a 74% chance of being a hit and giving the Marlins the lead. The Fish stalled out in the 9th after Monte Harrison got caught trying to take an extra base. It was the right move, but Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson just made the better play.

 

Trevor Rogers struggles

 

Trevor Rogers was given a 3 run 1st inning lead to work with. That lasted a whole 2 outs in the bottom half, as he allowed 4 runs on a bunch of hits and walks. It was reported that in his last start, Rogers was tipping pitches, and maybe that was the case initially last night. Rogers can be a very strong piece of the Marlins’ young rotation if he figures it out. He has the stuff.

 

Marlins vs the World

 

I have talked repeatedly about the importance of these last 6 games. Tomorrow, veteran Jose Urena gets a crack on the mound in a game “that matters.” Jose Urena starts tomorrow versus Bryse Wilson of the Braves. It’s up to this Marlins squad to do the unthinkable. Can they do it?

 

Playoff Roadblocks for Marlins

/0 Comments/in , /by

The Marlins split their doubleheader with the Nationals on Sunday, improving their record to 28-25. The Nationals dropped to 20-32. The Marlins remain the 5 seed in the NL but are only 1 game ahead of the Phillies and 1.5 games ahead of the Reds, Brewers, and Giants who sit in the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th spots, respectively. Even though the Marlins split the doubleheader, there is not much positive to note. They won game 1 on 2 error inducing runs and lost game 2 15-0. So instead, I will analyze the 7 most important games in the past 15 years of Marlins’ baseball.

 

4 games in Atlanta

 

The Marlins have split their season series with the Braves. In 6 games, they sit at 3-3. The Marlins have the arms of Trevor Rogers, Jose Urena, Sixto Sanchez, and Pablo Lopez going in these 4 games. A big note is that Max Fried (7-0, 1.96 ERA) is expected to pitch in the finale, which could spell trouble for a flailing Marlins lineup. Realistically, a series win would put the Marlins in a position where it would be hard to miss the playoffs, but a series loss would put them in the opposite realm of reality. The Marlins need to continue to rely on good starting pitching and timely bats. The 3-2, 2-1, and 1-0 wins aren’t pretty looking, but they get the job done. It is also important to mention that if the Marlins sweep the Braves, they would take 1st place in the NL East.

 

3 games in New York

 

Oh, boy. The Yankees have had their struggles this year, but it’s safe to say they found their stride. 9-1 in their last ten, the Bronx Bombers have been doing nothing but mashing recently, and now that they have clinched, the pressure is done for them. They will continue to swing the bats well, and I highly doubt the Marlins will be able to keep up. The Fish thrive on close, low-scoring games: something that won’t be the case in New York. The Yankees have plenty of offensive threats (maybe the most potent lineup the Fish have seen all year), ranging from Giancarlo Stanton to Gary Sanchez to DJ LeMahieu. Marlins pitching will have to be looking like game 1 of Sunday, not game 2, or this series, and our playoff hopes could fall apart fast.

 

The Marlins have defied the odds

 

Yes, these last 7 games will not be easy. But as a Marlin fan, even the idea we would have this opportunity feels completely out of the water. I think it’s safe to sit back and enjoy these last games, knowing that even if we don’t make it this year, there is a bright future ahead of us. Donnie has a plan. Let’s do this thing!