Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Hawks

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The Miami Heat took down the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night in intense fashion.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Could that have been Tyler Herro’s most impressive stint of his career?

Sixteen points, eight assists, eighteen minutes. That was Tyler Herro’s first half stat-line, and that doesn’t even almost tell the full story. For starters, the Heat were just playing some bad basketball to kick this game off, and that continued until, well, Herro trotted to the scorer’s table. His scoring popped out immediately, and you can always tell the way it’s trending with the manner he plays at. A quick split off of a double for a pull-up bank shot just put that on display in film form. His passing is another aspect that has taken a jump that can’t be described. Part of it is pure vision, but most if it is now being able to physically makes the passes. Lastly, that was the best half of defense I’ve seen him play. Not just because of a monstrous chase-down block, but the way he moved his feet on the ball. He got the switch on Trae Young and scored on one end, as Young tried to retaliate in similar fashion on the other end. Key word tried. Herro cut him off 3 times in a row, as he kicked it out for a three that bricked off the rim. Just an insane burst from Herro tonight.

#2: Duncan Robinson silently forming a bench tandem.

As I continue to talk about some of the bench notes, it must be noted that the reserves tonight were basically a second starting lineup. Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Dewayne Dedmon, and Herro all entered off the bench, just further showcasing the depth of this team. But when looking at Robinson specifically, this feels like it’s trending more toward long-term than a current rotational shift. The reason: it’s working…really well. For starters, Robinson’s looks aren’t shifting in any way. Defenses are still drenched on top of him, and a hand-off guy like PJ Tucker is usually on the floor. But what has changed my thoughts on this working all of a sudden? Well, once again, look at Tyler Herro. It was always about their ability to play together, and with Herro’s recent passing surge, it has looked flawless with a constant safety net sitting next to him. And most of all, it’s an immediate stagger for Erik Spoelstra even when starters return.

#3: Adjustment time strikes again for Erik Spoelstra.

As I talked about last game, Erik Spoelstra made a major shift in the offense. Instead of working everything through Tucker per usual, he handed the keys to Omer Yurtseven. And it worked to perfection. But as he tried a similar thing to start tonight, it was quite the opposite of the game against Phoenix. Not only were shots not falling, but actions weren’t being triggered with the jumbled up bodies in the half-court. So, as many teams in this league do already, Spo looked in a total different direction again: strictly perimeter play. It’s not the worst idea when you’re without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, and it’s definitely not a bad idea when you can stick defenders like Trae Young in every action. And as I keep stating, he leaned on Herro just playing off his own rhythm, and that’s how shots were generated. Less structure, more production. Sometimes rough nights call for that formula.

#4: The Caleb Martin-Max Strus experiment.

Max Strus and Caleb Martin always seem to be grouped together on this team. Both are next up on the starter filler list when guys go down. Both have elevated their play this season in ways that it’s hard to imagine eliminating them from the rotation. But as much as similarities strike in that sense, their overall play hits me as so drastically different, in a good way. And not just one is a shooter and the other is an explosive attacker. As the second half opens up, Strus goes on a run to really put the score out of reach right out the gate. In the blink of an eye, he hits you with a couple threes before you can react. But Martin on the other hand is the marathon guy. He slowly chips away in the scoring column, with feisty tip-ins when shots don’t drop, an occasional three when offense isn’t flowing, and can take you in isolation in a broken possession. And both are equally important. They need both that instinctive spark and that long distance runner who will chip away, and they’ve gotten each of those things at an extremely high level this season.

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#5: Dewayne Dedmon is back, and he’s not leaving.

Omer Yurtseven has been incredible for this Heat team in this recent stretch, but I think some of it needs to end there. The record rebound nights are fantastic, but when talking rotation roles with a healthy roster, he has some spots to jump. Seeing Dewayne Dedmon return tonight just felt like a healthy reminder of what it’s like to have a big of pure solidity and consistency. He gets you enough boards, provides some of the most picture perfect “role” type offensive play with the surrounding pieces, and has generally been extremely available. Plus, as the Herro conversation continues in this piece, the pick and roll combo with Dedmon seems as crisp as any two man game on the roster. Like I said, Yurtseven has been great, and can continue to be plugged in when needed, but right now, he’s a developmental piece of this team while Dedmon is the big man lock.

 

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5 Takeaways from the Heat’s Second Quarter of the Season

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40 games into the NBA season and at the time of writing, the Miami Heat are currently sitting at 3rd in the eastern conference, despite losing Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo for a combined 39 games.

The focal point of these “Quarterly Takeaways” articles is ultimately to find trends that are valuable for the Heat in the regular season and somewhat predictive of the Heat’s potential success or shortcomings when the playoffs come around. Unfortunately, due to injuries and COVID, some of the trends found might not have any bearing on playoff success but will absolutely impact the Heat in this regular season and continue into the 2022-23’ season.

Here are some takeaways from the Heat’s second quarter of the season…

(A 21 game sample size was used ranging from 11/26/21 until 1/12/22)

1. Kyle F****** Lowry

When Butler and Adebayo went down, it was a foregone conclusion that the Heat would freefall down the Eastern Conference standings. A top-heavy team losing it’s two best players for a prolonged period of time is a potential death sentence for a team like Miami. But then we got to see Kyle Lowry, in his purest form, he doesn’t need to score 30 points every night, he doesn’t need to shoot hyper-efficiently (although it does help), all Lowry needs is the ball in his hands and the trust from his coaches and teammates that he will make the right play and put the team in a position to succeed. The offense, now built around Kyle Lowry, has changed into a solar system where Kyle Lowry is the sun and the other 4 players are planets in perpetual motion. The emphasis on motion around Lowry and Lowry finding the open man has led the Heat to the 5th most assists over the last 21 games

In the absence of other stars, many have stepped up in terms of production, but Lowry has been the one to take a step forward in nearly every individual advanced metric for the point guard position.

As shown in the chart above, Lowry has improved across the board in Usage %, Assist % and TS%. When called upon to be “the guy” Lowry has had the ball in his hands more, increased his assist production by about 20% and gone from “league average” to “Standard Kyle Lowry” as a scorer, from an efficiency perspective.

Lowry is a player who’s impact goes far beyond the box score, however, seeing notable statistical improvements from a shaky start is a breath of fresh air for Heat fans who might’ve been worried about the 85 million dollar commitment the Heat made to the soon-to-be 36 year old. A Lowry-centric offense means a ton of movement, both on and off the ball, which brings me to the next takeaway.

2. Analytic Ball?

An offense where the players are constantly moving and the ball mirrors player movement, pass then screen away, set hammer screens for corner 3’s, run Spain Pick-and-Roll (Occasionally), make good entry passes, drive and kick, put emphasis on moving the ball inside and out on nearly every possession, all of the things that you want to see an offense do, the Heat are doing.In spite of all of those great things, The Heat’s success is being chalked up to “analytic ball” by Eddie Johnson, former NBA standout and current color analyst for the Phoenix Suns.

Some salty announcer may foolishly attribute the Heat’s improved style of play to analytics, I will attribute it to coach Spo and general common sense. Butler, Adebayo, and Morris are all players who operate in the Mid-Post and do a lot of their scoring in the mid-range area or at the rim. Does it make sense for an offense led by Lowry, Herro, Tucker, Robinson, Vincent, Martin and Strus to play a physical “grind you down” offense? Absolutely not. Coach Spo understands this as well and has used movement to mitigate the lack of self-creating talent, while maximizing the level of complementary shooting talent with the playmakers that are Lowry, Herro and Tucker.

Since November 26th, the Heat have averaged 26.8 assists per game (5th most) and have completely changed their shot diet.

The Heat have limited their shots that the defense is comfortable with, Mid-range and short touch shots in the paint, and traded them in for a more methodical approach that might take more time and effort every possession, but fits the 3-point shooting skill set of the current talent on the roster.

This season might be Erik Spoelstra’s masterpiece for a multitude of reasons, but one of the reasons why almost any player has been able to come in and contribute is Spo isn’t asking them to do what the other guys do, he tells them to do what they are good at. Yes, very simple, but it’s something that some NBA coaches struggle with because they want to win their way. Spo simply just wants to win.

3. We got shooters… again.

Part of what made the Heat’s ceiling so frightening early in the season is the ability to win without the 3-point shot falling. The main reason that the Heat have been able to win games recently is the simple fact that the shots are falling, at an elite level. The emphasis on the 3-point shot has paid off in a big way as Miami has shot 39.9% on 38.8 3PA per game.

Of course the team shooting is reflective of the individual shooting, so here are some individual performances from 3 over the last 21 games.

Dewayne Dedmon: 56.3% on 1.1 Attempts per game

PJ Tucker: 48% on 3.3 Attempts per game

KZ Okpala: 44.4% on 1.4 attempts per game

Caleb Martin: 44.2% on 3.7 attempts per game

Max Strus: 42.9% on 7.8 attempts per game

Gabe Vincent: 39.2% on 6.4 attempts per game

Duncan Robinson: 38.4% on 8.4 attempts per game

Tyler Herro: 37.5% on 6.5 attempts per game

Kyle Lowry: 34.6% on 6.7 attempts per game

Will this hot shooting continue for the remaining 42 games of the season? Doubtful. Quite frankly, I expect the return of Butler, Adebayo, and eventual re-integrations of Oladipo and Morris to give the Heat a bit of a shooting slump.

Over the last 21 games the unwritten mantra of the Heat from the 3 point line has been “Solid shooters should only take good shots, Great shooters should take any shot” and it has worked out nearly perfectly. The most important takeaway from this shooting stretch is the Heat surrounding their non-shooting stars with a plethora of solid-to-great shooters that can do more than just shoot… well, most of them. These elite percentages will inevitably drop, but as long as the process remains the same, the Heat should be in great shape offensively.

4. The Defense Firm of Vincent & Martin.*

In terms of production over expectation, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin have easily been the most surprising players on the Heat. While we could easily gush over their offensive contributions, what they bring on the defensive end has been nothing short of extraordinary.

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Starting with Gabe, an aggressive PoA defender who doesn’t allow ball-handlers to comfortably get to their spots and has a combination of strength and quickness that allows him to fight through screens routinely, making him a tough matchup for any team that runs their offense through their guard. Gabe also has a willingness to switch onto forwards and centers and make them work to get positioning on mismatches, a valuable tool considering the Heat’s defensive scheme. While I do believe defense is more dependent on the eye test than anything else, the numbers do support Gabe’s case to not only be a good defender, but one of the best on the team. Over the course of the season the Heat have 15 3-man lineups that have played over 100 minutes together and posted a defensive rating of 100 or less, 9 of those 15 lineups include Gabe Vincent. The next closest is Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro with 6.

There isn’t a statistical case to be made for Martin to be a top defender on the Heat, but anyone who’s watched him this season knows defense is clearly his forte. The ability to guard 1-3 and be able to match the strength and or quickness of the players in front of him is a marvel to watch. Martin, like Vincent, is willing to pick up the primary ball-handler before halfcourt and slows the actions the opponents want to run. Martin’s been able to successfully contain multiple primary shot creators like Khris Middleton to a 1 of 7 shooting, Bradley Beal to 0 for 4, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to a combined 1 of 4 night and most recently holding Steph Curry to 1 of 7 shooting and De’aaron Fox to 0 of 3. Having a defender get up for challenges like those and then win the matchup is something that is an absolute luxury to have when the all-defense level player in JImmy Butler is missing time.

*This takeaway is from the entire season, the sample size of Vincent and Martin being good on defense is not exclusive to the last 21 games.

* For a more in-depth break down on Caleb Martin’s defense, read this article from Brady Hawk

5. Top 10 ROTY Candidate: Ömer Yurtseven

When the Heat signed Yurtseven to a standard multi-year deal, there was a belief that in a perfect world, this would be a redshirt year and he ultimately would not see much run until the 2022-2023 season. Then came the injury bug. With Adebayo, Morris and Dedmon out, it was time to see what the 23 year old rookie had to offer. The production the big man has been able to give the Heat is nothing short of incredible. In his 11 games where he’s played 20 or more minutes, Yurtseven is averaging 9.9 points, 13.45 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.2 steals. The ability to dominate on the boards against top tier rebounders such as Sabonis, Nurkic and Ayton has shown that Yurtseven has an elite trait in rebounding, and a rapidly growing game elsewhere.

While Yurtseven has had amazing moments, there still are areas that need to be worked on, specifically going into next season where he projects to have a larger role. The defense has been a concern since his Olympic qualifying games with Turkey, while there have been improvements, there needs to be a specific defensive coverage for Yurtseven to specialize in (Drop coverage makes the most sense). As for the offensive side, Yurtseven needs to work on his touch. He is currently shooting 46.8% from the field, a way below average mark for a center who takes 90% of his shots inside the paint. Once the shots around the rim begin to fall, there should be an emphasis on fine tuning the mid-range shot that Yurtseven weaponized in the summer league as a pick-and-pop big.

The last 11 games where Yurtseven has been heavily relied upon and played winning basketball has instilled confidence in fans that the Heat have a clear pathway to develop Yurtseven into a rock solid rotational player down the road with potential to be a starter if the Heat ever decide to size-up in the frontcourt.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over the Suns

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The Miami Heat faced the best team in the league tonight, in the Phoenix Suns, and completely dominated without both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro led the way off the bench, but pure outside shooting and offensive execution was the main reason for this.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Duncan Robinson steps down into bench role, but steps up in production.

It was one of those unexpected, yet expected moves that Erik Spoelstra pulled before this game with Max Strus staying in the starting lineup and Duncan Robinson staying in reserve mode. But as much as I thought I’d be discussing Strus’ hot start, Robinson absolutely took over the spotlight. It isn’t even much schematic points that need to be made, except that his confidence looked like it totally surged. Every shot, he had his legs under him and wasn’t swaying in anyway like he usually does after a couple don’t drop. Now, with him coming off the bench, the part many had their eyes on were the minutes of Tyler Herro and him together. And well, when you’re shooting like that, it’ll work. They did run some Herro-Robinson pick and pops with Robinson screening and slipping, which is the exact way to maximize that combo.

#2: Miami shifts who the offense is worked through, and an unexpected guy is the focal point.

I’ve talked a ton about the importance of PJ Tucker in that play-making role, but we saw a shift to begin this one. Initially, we saw much more of Tucker surveying in the dunker spot when one would drive and feed, instead of his usual back to the basket on the wing three. But that aside, they found a guy in the middle of the floor to just make the right sprays, and that guy’s name was Omer Yurtseven. Seven first half assists doesn’t even tell the full story, but just him stepping up when the offense needed that from him says a lot. We’ve seen monster scoring stretches from him this year. We’ve seen nonstop rebounding hounding from him as well. But that first half was the most promising stretch of basketball from Yurtseven that I’ve seen up to this point.

#3: Tyler Herro surprises in other ways now.

Yet again, it was a bit of a shaky start for Tyler Herro. Instead of being surprised by his wild shot-making or unexpected struggles, he surprised in a different way tonight. As I loaded up the box score for the first half, I did not expect there to be a 17 next to Herro’s name. Not only that, but he battled back to 50% shooting up to that point, which is just a big tell of where his game has gone over the last year. When he couldn’t get going tonight, he quickly got into “physical mode,” which is something I’d like to see him enter more often. One fast-break dunk looked to spark some things for him on the attack, and he began driving with his left shoulder leading the way. No more avoiding contact and wild scoops. Okay, there were a few scoops, but when the majority is just strong play from your young guard, good things will happen, which it did, as he ended up finishing the game with one of his best scoring games of the season.

#4: If Miami gets this offensive production most nights, they’ve found the perfect complements for Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

Roster construction is always a hot topic when talking about teams in the NBA, and more importantly, it’s a bigger topic for contending teams. Right now, the Heat are definitely a contending team. And when looking at the depth of this team, it’s led to us thinking about combinations that will work best in a playoff setting around Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but I’m just not so sure there’s *one* right answer. But no matter who those guys end up being, this type of shooting around those two guys is the ultimate complements to each of their games. Even going back to Robinson and Strus, if both are shooting like this in a few months, there won’t be many minutes where one isn’t on the floor. That is the formula for Butler and Adebayo lineups, and Erik Spoelstra has found that formula.

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#5: The Heat just keep doing it.

8-2. That’s the Miami Heat’s record against the top 3 seeds in both the Eastern and Western Conference. No matter who has been available, how many road games they play, or what player is currently in a slump, they’ve still found ways against the top teams in this league. They handled Brooklyn early in the year, dominated the Chicago match-up, and won the majority of games against the Bucks, which they were majorly shorthanded for. On the other side of the league, they lost to Golden State on this trip, yet swept the match-up with the Utah Jazz, and handled business tonight against the Phoenix Suns. That slate of games is as impressive as it gets. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo just watching from the sideline, as the young and hungry continue to battle through win after win. And well, that’s all that is needed. Buy time for Butler, Adebayo, and others, then it’s time to anchor down once the post-season hits. But they’re in a picture perfect position at this moment in time.

 

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PJ Tucker Taking the Reigns of this Heat Team in his Own Unselfish Way

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When evaluating a potential playoff series match-up between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat, could a major point of emphasis be as simple as one team has PJ Tucker and the other doesn’t?

At this point in the season, most definitely.

After he was perceived to be a high level role player with supreme defensive talent when joining Miami this off-season, the opinions have shifted dramatically in a positive direction. And rightfully so.

Simply, he can fill the shoes of whoever you ask him to, and he does it quite seamlessly.

When Bam Adebayo goes down to begin the month of December, who can takeover that back-line defensive task, while distributing on the offensive end on a similar level?

Oh, just PJ Tucker.

Who can emulate the mid-post that Jimmy Butler does when he goes down for continuous extended periods?

Oh, just PJ Tucker.

Who can raise the production of outside shooting when Duncan Robinson goes through slumps, Max Strus enters protocols, or there’s just limited perimeter players available?

Oh, just a 46.2% 3 point shooter named PJ Tucker, which ranks number one in percentage among the top 250 players in 3 point attempts per game.

To dive into that number a bit more, he’s shooting just under 47% from three on pure catch and shoot looks, while obtaining a 60.9% effective field goal percentage across the year. News flash: the reason this is so impressive is because attempts have risen, his role has gotten bigger, and the number of defensive eyes on him keep climbing.

Also, since he’s well known to be the catalyst of a corner specialist, 91.4% of his shots are coming from the corners, which is the highest mark of his career.

Many of these numbers are pretty absurd attached to Tucker’s play so far this season on the offensive end, but game film seems to be even more absurd.

Looking at the clip above, this is the new role for Tucker when Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler aren’t on the floor, and it’s something nobody could’ve predicted he’d be able to fill as a play-maker.

The ball is inserted into him inside that wing three, which pretty much triggers two things: Tucker play-making mode is activated with his back to the basket, and weak-side off-ball screening is going to be the main point of emphasis.

Tyler Herro looks to be setting Max Strus a screen to fly around the perimeter into a hand-off, but well, that would be too predictable in a Miami Heat offense, right?

Strus cuts back down baseline to reverse the hand-off the other way, as Herro rises up to the top of the key as a safety blanket. Two flash to Strus as they usually do, and he hits Tucker on that slip screen that he finds himself in so often.

From there, all Tucker needs is a 2 foot plant, a quick spring, and a one-hand floater that is becoming more of an offensive staple than his corner shooting that I brought up previously.

Of course it’s great to see that shot down low falling, but as I said before, the most intriguing part about that entire clip is the first 3 seconds. The offense being worked completely through Tucker with Adebayo and Butler on the sideline, and Lowry in the locker room, is not a temporary thing.

That’s a tool that Erik Spoelstra has found, and will not waste.

Here’s pretty much the same exact set except on the opposite side of the floor.

This time around, Omer Yurtseven is setting the end around screen for Strus to fly off of for the hand-off, yet the same outcome is found. Strus refuses it and cuts back-door, while Tucker throws a pass that pretty much sums up is unique new play-style this season.

But aside from the behind the back flashiness, one more thing stands out about Tucker here.

Go back and watch this play again, but focus on Tucker reading the floor. Jusuf Nurkic had to make a decision between finding Strus below the rim, stepping up to Yurtseven, or taking the gamble of playing the middle and betting on the recovery game.

Tucker smartly waits it out one extra second, which makes all the difference on plays like this, as Nurkic makes that predictable step up. As soon as he takes that step, Tucker hits Strus for the easy two, as no recovery can then be made.

That’s the definition of PJ Tucker. Waiting that extra second.

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But as much as we sit here and talk about the unpredictable nature of Tucker as an offensive threat, I’d say he’s been pretty predictable on the defensive end to say the least.

Looking at some one-on-one match-ups, he has held Giannis Antetokounmpo to 3 of 9 shooting this season, Khris Middleton and Nikola Vucevic to 1 of 8 shooting, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to a 1 of 4 night, Domantas Sabonis has gone 0 of 3, Karl Anthony Towns went 1 of 4, Jayson Tatum shot 0 for 3, and the list here can go on and on and on.

Of course stats like this can never tell the full story in general terms like this, but with Tucker, he forces top level talents like those guys to rough nights.

He takes up the match-up of the best player no matter what position they are, since as seen above, that’s as broad positionally as you can get. And when teams begin forcing him into switches off their star player, Erik Spoelstra than schemes it up to make him guard the screener, which ultimately won them a game against the Utah Jazz early this season.

He’s reliable, he’s versatile, and he’s a winner. And most of all, he’s an Erik Spoelstra schematic favorite in terms of the amount of places he can be plugged into on both ends of the floor.

PJ Tucker has stepped up at an incredible level as the Heat are enduring a very awkward time without their top level talent every single night. But at this moment in time, and when Miami enters post-season mode, I believe Tucker is top level talent.

Of course he’s not at the level of a Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, but I’d say he’s equally as important. And well, I don’t believe that’s a controversial or debatable statement at this stage, which says a lot about what this guy has been able to do over the first 39 games of the season.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Trail Blazers

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The Miami Heat played another late night West Coast match on Wednesday night, but got the win this time around against the Portland Trail Blazers.

This was an interesting one with an early Kyle Lowry ejection and a late ejection for Tyler Herro, but either way, Miami escaped with a much needed win in this tough stretch of games.

So, here are some takeaways from this one…

#1: Max Strus comes out of protocols, Max Strus comes out firing.

After missing the last 7 days in the health and safety protocols, Max Strus found himself in the starting lineup in his return. And we saw a recurring theme within his game, which is that he never misses his first shot. Ever. Aside from that and his high level confidence from deep, it’s always much more big picture when bringing up this specific name. The reason is that with a healthy roster, which shouldn’t ever be an expectation in this unique time, Strus would most likely be shelved with all of the other talent on this roster. The thing about that is there’s absolutely no way humanly possible that could occur if Strus is playing the way he is at this exact moment. Who is the guy on the team that you expect his shot to drop every time he shoots? Well, that guy is Max Strus every time I watch these games, and it fits with the current clip he’s shooting at. And more importantly, he’s proven to be a clutch time shooter.

#2: Miami’s intriguing offensive sets in life without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

I constantly touch on mid-post touches when one of Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler are on the floor, but what does offense look like without the both of them? Well, it’s much simpler. Aside from the base perimeter sets like pick and rolls, hand-offs,  and drive and kicks, Miami’s found a unique formula with more shooting on the floor. One guy will set up on the wing with the ball in his hands in play-making mode, as the other 4 guys line up on the weak-side. Now, the next step is usually two flares and two off-ball screens, as one shades up to the top of the key and the other crosses to the strong-side, then layers are added from there. That base is so interesting with the many options within it, but it wouldn’t be possible without PJ Tucker. Who would’ve thought Tucker would be that on-ball wing play-maker at times? But well, he has been at times, and it has worked extremely well.

#3: Kyle Lowry ejected?

Kyle Lowry was going to be a takeaway of mine either way tonight, since it was originally expected that I’d be discussing his on-court play with 9 assists in 16 early minutes. Since for one, that is quite impressive. But the reason we’re bringing up Lowry now is due to his unexpected ejection in the second quarter. The first one was deserving after his extended chirping at the officials following a foul, which we’re used to. But the second technical came when he tossed the ball lightly at the referee. Literally. With the official not expecting it, he immediately reacted as if he threw a fastball down the middle, and ejected him from the game. Like I said, we’ve seen tech after tech on guys like Lowry and Tucker all season for obvious reasons, but this one wasn’t even close to being warranted. Yet on the bright side, some much needed extra rest came Lowry’s way, as his other top level teammates have gotten much more of that sideline observing.

#4: The flipping offensive nature that is PJ Tucker.

Seeing PJ Tucker in play-making mode as he is without Butler and Adebayo is one thing, but mid-post behind the back passes for layups is another thing. That leads us back a few years, where his name coming up always led to the label of “offensive limitations,” which would make you scratch your head a bit if your first time watching him was in a Miami Heat uniform. Not only as he surpassed that label, but he’s doing something that literally nobody could’ve predicted. No matter who exits the lineup, he fills the role. Only one guy can semi-emulate the game of Adebayo, Tucker can save them. Mid-post play-making in a Butler way, Tucker is there. You need him to play center for most of the game down so many bigs, he’s your guy. Versatility, comfort, and the trust factor: the story of Tucker’s season.

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#5: 10-days are dwindling, but is this the end for all?

Many 10-days have already been shut down as guys exit the health and safety protocols, such as Aric Holman, Nik Stauskas, and Heat fan favorite, Mario Chalmers. But there are a few others that are still getting chances and showcasing their skills. One of them is Chris Silva, who actually gave Miami a decent hustle boost in this one tonight, but doesn’t seem to be a fit for the future with his current skill-set. Kyle Guy is the hot topic among that group, who continues to showcase an offensive skill-set that stands out with his efficient scoring, flashy passing, and a surprising downhill threat and attacker. Lastly, Haywood Highsmith continues to get run even with Tucker back with the team, and I must say, I’m not surprised at all. When he was signed, that was the name I said to watch for. Not for a second 10-day potentially, but to see him back in the future. Miami always circles back, and this feels like another example.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Warriors

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This was a bit of a weird one for the Miami Heat in this late start against the Golden State Warriors. Aside from Miami’s strong fight with a short-handed roster, they also may have just lost Jimmy Butler for some time after he went down and into the locker room in the third.

So, here are some takeaways from this one, as well as a bit of a look forward as well…

#1: Miami’s microscopic issues out the gate on both ends.

Aside from the repeated unnecessary turnovers from the Heat early on, there were some clear issues that led to a lopsided score in the first quarter. For starters on the defensive end, there were once again just some clear miscommunications that led to easy looks for Golden State, which they didn’t always capitalize on. But the main problem on that end was over-helping. Now that doesn’t count flying two to Stephen Curry at the head of the offense, but instead sending two to Draymond Green in the mid-post, while many other mismatches like Lowry on Wiggins were all over the floor. On the other side of the floor, it’s pretty clear this is a tough match-up in general with their switching ability, which is something that should be focused on. Spamming certain screeners who are being defended by Gary Payton ll just isn’t the right call, and they found that out quick.

#2: The Kyle Lowry second quarter run.

After Miami’s first quarter, I said on Twitter the only way their offense could be saved is if it turned into Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro time. I was wrong. It turned into Kyle Lowry time. After trailing 28-40 in the 2nd, a 9-0 run quickly followed due to the excellence of Lowry. He began with some dribble penetration that was missed, mostly toying with a sticking big on the baseline before getting some good positioning for easy flip layups. He also got guys going with his usual passing, full-court touchdowns to Herro, and continued pick and roll connection with Omer Yurtseven, who looks most comfortable in that space with Lowry. He’s not the type of guy to flip the momentum in the same way Butler or Herro can, but guys just see him lead by example and others quickly follow. What I saw from Lowry tonight, almost foreshadows some playoff level expectations with him.

#3: Jimmy Butler’s first half flip.

Jimmy Butler wasn’t his usual self on the front-end of the back to back against the Sacramento Kings, and it slightly carried over into the beginning of this one. As I said early on, he almost looked like he was coasting yet again, flowing into offense with too much ease. But well, then things flip, like they usually seem to do. Late in the second quarter, Butler got into hunting/attacking mode, in a way that makes you wonder what took so long. Free throw line trips increasing, three-point attempts decreasing. Seeing him get to his usual spots on the floor from the mid-post to left or right box is a true tell, where he can survey and inevitably draw two almost every time. But the Butler conversation got much more complicated in the third quarter, as he limped off the floor with an apparent right leg injury. Achilles is the first thing that popped into my head when I first saw it, but that’s just speculation. A little bit later, the Heat listed it as a right ankle injury, which is much better in that sense.

#4: Caleb Martin making more of a rotational case, night after night.

I’ve spent so many of these post-game pieces touching on the Heat’s two-way find Caleb Martin this season, even dissecting his December stretch in a recent article. But he just continues to shine from a night to night basis, and more importantly, in a role to role basis. In this game alone, high flying put-back dunks, big time corner triples, Stephen Curry hounding. It was all on display, but we need to key in on that “role to role” point a bit more. They’re down a few bigs, put Martin at the 5 and it works. They need a power forward plug-in without PJ Tucker, just throw in Martin. And well, as Spoelstra has said in the past, when Butler goes out, he’s the lite version to jump into that spot. As much as this is a positive thing that he can continue to shine, the issue is the circumstances. As I said before, with the new injury for Butler, Martin’s spot opens up again in another area of the starting lineup.

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#5: The PJ Tucker reliance begins again.

On the positive side of things, PJ Tucker returned to play in this one off the bench as he worked his way back in, and we saw glimpses of what was missed. The biggest thing is defensively with his communication and overall deferring ability on and off the ball, but the offensive task rises again. Tonight we saw more of the usual Tucker role with corner spacing, some screen and rolls, and hand-offs. But with no Butler or Adebayo, the role I talked about before he was injured returns. We saw a play-making surge from him at that point, and they will begin to shift him back into that wing post three position, where he can trigger back-side actions. And the major part about that working is getting some shooters back. To maximize that role, you need weak-side killers which begins with Max Strus returning on Wednesday since he’s now out of the health and safety protocols.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Kings

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The Miami Heat fell short against the Sacramento Kings after their recent hot stretch, and now the real tough slate lines up right in front of them.

Omer Yurtseven had another promising performance, but Miami just couldn’t control things ultimately on either end.

So, here are five takeaways from this one…

#1: A very ugly start for Miami.

The Heat had a pretty horrible start to this one, and it transcends poor shooting from the outside. While that jumped off the stat-sheet, and was heard every time the ball clanked off the rim, it began to blend into other things, like it usually does. For one, it always waters down defensive effort. But the issue early was that 10-day contracts were showing. It seemed like it was miscommunication after miscommunication, giving Sacramento easy threes and easy layups every time down the floor. And as shots continue to miss, you jump into an accidental offensive shift on the floor, almost repeating bad habits. The main one is something I’ve touched on a ton which is overusing bigs that aren’t Bam Adebayo. You can’t work offense through less skilled bigs even though that’s what you’re used to, which we saw at times with guys like Chris Silva.

#2: A Kyle Lowry-Omer Yurtseven 1-2 punch to finish the first half.

Although I touched on the things that went wrong for Miami offensively, something had to have gone right if they only trailed by 4 at halftime. And well, that started with Kyle Lowry and Omer Yurtseven. Tyler Herro finished strong after a patchy start to the half, and Kyle Guy contributed a decent bit on that end, but the Lowry-Yurtseven PnR’s were being spammed. And they were working well. Lowry was hitting that pull-up three when the defender went under, and surveyed the mid-range at a high level, either spinning into his coveted turn-around or dishing down low with 5 first half assists. But Yurtseven’s control down low really shined. Although defensive lapses occurred, he was needed as that roll/post presence, and he showed up in that area. He went from the least experienced guy on the floor to the second most real quick, as many of those lineups were surrounded by 3 10-days.

#3: Does open floor operation need to increase in this interesting period?

It’s hard to judge minor specifics during this stretch of games with only 5 roster guys available, but one simple element has jumped out to me. When the year began, the offensive topic that outweighed everything else is the pace increase Lowry would bring to this team, and as we’ve seen, Herro has loved it as well. But the more games played, the more things seem to slow down. Of course that will always be this team’s identity, but can a true identity be found when running a Haywood Highsmith-Chris Silva front-court pairing? I believe not. With that said, it feels like this team needs to open up the playbook a bit more, to maximize guys like Caleb Martin, Lowry, etc. We’ve seen it shine at moments, but the consistency is never there. A lot of it relies on high level defense, but pushing the pace feels like a necessity when playing with young legs who want an opportunity.

#4: Tyler Herro’s “battling” factor.

I talked about Tyler Herro a little in this sense last game, but ultimately in a different light. When shots aren’t falling, it doesn’t look like last season whatsoever. Last game, his outlet was his passing ability, where he controlled the game on the ball and set others up. Tonight, he just kept battling through. Yes, he battled through a couple times last season as well, but I don’t remember it working out as much as it has this year. He can turn games around within that same 48 minute frame, and that’s an important skill for a 21 year old pure scorer. As I said before, he had a nice finish to the first half, but he continued that in the second half as well when energy and rhythm picked up in that 3rd quarter. After talking about Yurtseven, how was he getting such good looks down low? Along with Butler looking for him, Herro kept feeding him.

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#5: An unsurprising, surprising loss by Miami.

Yeah, it definitely felt like Miami was in control of this one late and was there’s to win, but well, it slipped away. While that may surprise some, it just shouldn’t. The Miami Heat ran a 4th quarter lineup of Kyle Guy, Nik Stauskas, Haywood Highsmith, and Chris Silva, which gives us a ton of perspective. The Heat have still won 9 of their last 12, but now, real challenges strike. The upcoming stretch of this road trip is the toughest part, including Golden State and Phoenix to kick things off essentially. But the only good thing about it will be that this team is getting healthier. Quick. Guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and PJ Tucker could be exiting protocols real soon, Dewayne Dedmon should be close to healed up, Markieff Morris *should* be back soon, and clock is ticking on the hopeful return of Victor Oladipo and Bam Adebayo. Steal a couple coming up, and they’re in perfect shape.

 

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This Caleb Martin Run Isn’t Temporary

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It’s 1:30 pm on September 18th, and a Shams notification hits your phone. Free agent Caleb Martin is signing a two-way deal with the Miami Heat, potentially to fill in a game or two at worst case scenario.

Fast forward a little over 3 months, and an 18 day absence from Martin after entering the health and safety protocols is the new worst case scenario.

Clearly, a total 360, but Martin isn’t surprised.

Before the season even started, when I got a chance to talk to him during training camp, he told me “it’ll allow me to be me a little more here.”

And well, that’s pretty obvious.

We’ve gotten to the point in the season where the phrase “two-way” doesn’t need to be attached to his name. He’s just Caleb Martin.

Opposing teams know his talent, his teammates know his talent, and most of all, Erik Spoelstra knows his talent.

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The Heat have gone 10-5 in the month of December, and Martin only played half of those games. But man has he been huge in those 8 games.

Over that period, Martin has put up an Effective Field Goal percentage of 65.9% on a little under 9 attempts per game. He’s also shooting 43% on threes, and 44% on catch and shoot ones specifically.

But aside from just shooting the ball from three at an incredible rate, as this entire Heat team has in the month of December, he’s provided the missing pieces depending on who has been out. The main one that is basically a universal tool when plugging into any role is rim pressure, and he’s taken that to another level.

He’s a scorer at heart. He’s a hooper at heart. When the game gets a little freer and the crowd gets a little louder, his game elevates and his ups elevate for huge slams that almost bring down the arena.

Looking at this clip, you can see that it’s always about that second defender with Martin. Not in the same way as Jimmy Butler does as the weak-side guy edges over, but just in thorough pick and roll offense. His quick first step basically eliminates his original defender completely, and that dropped or switched defender is now the only guy in sight.

But as seen, his athleticism and underrated touch around the rim allows him to get crafty for easy and highlight finishes. In the month of December, he’s shooting 71% from less than 10 feet from the basket, and these aren’t just jumbled up big man numbers who only take easy buckets.

Most of his inside buckets are contested. Really contested. He can get crafty for immediate put-backs after his own miss, but clearly, that isn’t even needed most of the time. His initial finishing can carry the load.

And well, that is a trend that showcases a player’s effectiveness isn’t temporary. Especially when there’s a chance that is not even his best side of the ball.

Martin has talked about the fact that his defense wasn’t really known as a strength early on, but when watching him play this year, it’s hard for that to not be the first thing to bring up when evaluating his game.

There are guys that rely simply on good metrics to handle their defensive talent. Others rely on decent lateral foot speed to be ball pressure guys. And the rest just outsmart the offense by consistently being in the right spot on that end.

And honestly, Caleb Martin is all three.

Aside from looking at those simple elements of the defensive end, take a look at the play above. You may see a guy pick up a smaller ball-handler on the break, time it good, and get the block.

But I see a play that describes his entire defensive nature.

He’s calm but reactive, and that’s one of the best compliments I can give to a defender in this league. It almost appears as if he’s not trying while defending an over-dribbler, but it’s just his overall control taking the wheel before reacting and exploding for a block, steal, contest, or switch.

To put this in perspective, he’s also gotten the best of his match-up most nights this season too. When Martin was defending last night, Kevin Porter Jr shot 1 of 6 from the field and Jalen Green went 1 for 4.

Big picture, he has held guys like Khris Middleton to 1 of 7 shooting, Bradley Beal went 0 for 4, and held Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to a combined 1 of 4 night.

And the funny thing about stats like that is him deterring shooters and forcing the pass is a better skill of his than pure contesting.

Martin went from a restricted two-way with a 50 game limit to a player with unlimited regular season games due to the league’s recent change. But that doesn’t feel like the only shift coming to his deal this year.

The Miami Heat have shown that they need him big time, and even though a healthy playoff roster may push him out the rotation, health is never a sure thing right now. And even when full, I wouldn’t be surprised if Spoelstra was to call Martin’s number consistently in a series with a good match-up.

I feel like there’s an expectation that he will be a regular roster guy pretty soon, and more importantly, they may be looking past this season. Yes Martin may be another “popping” young prospect of theirs at the bottom of the roster, but his hot streak is more than a streak.

He’s a complete player with a complete game and he’s saved Miami on a handful of occasions throughout this season.

Stats don’t lie, film doesn’t lie, and trust doesn’t lie.

Martin has surged on the stat-sheet, provides way more on film studies than some may notice, and Coach Spoelstra continues to trust him when needed to either start or close.

This isn’t the end of Martin’s production in a Heat uniform. It’s just the beginning.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Rockets

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The Miami Heat’s starting five were a familiar bunch, but after that, it was a little tougher to remember other than Mario Chalmers.

Even with that, Jimmy Butler led the way in this one as Miami glided by the Houston Rockets, but he wasn’t alone.

So, here are some takeaways from this interesting game…

#1: Who is this Guy?

With 10-day contracts flying in left and right, something I pointed out before this game was that at least one would stick. And well, there was surely one “Guy” that jumped off the screen. Kyle Guy has had an interesting start to his NBA career, which eventually led him to the G-League, but he looked like a pretty clear NBA level player in this game tonight. Not just due to his hot outside shooting and comfort on the ball in the pick and roll, but through his immediate confidence. That matters. Flashy pass after flashy pass pretty much set the stage on who this guy was, but as I said, making Tyler Herro-like difficult shots just put the cherry on top. He filled up the stat sheet in every possible category, and it just seems like this always happens with this Heat team. This is where they initially pop.

#2: Jimmy Butler doing Jimmy Butler things.

Jimmy Butler doesn’t feel like a necessary talking point on a night where it’s all about 10 day contracts and unexpected play-styles, but he continues to shine no matter what. For one, 19 points at the half while going 6 of 10 from the field just shows his mindset in this one. He had a three to begin the half then one to finish it at the buzzer, but other than that, it was complete inside play and free throw line antics. The other aspect of this is just his control on the game no matter who is on the floor. This wasn’t like last game where he had a career high 15 assists either. He actually had 0 at the half, but still his ability to draw 2 and create opportunities for others is a true gift and asset in the game of basketball. But yet again, it’s just Butler doing Butler things.

#3: The underrated aspect of Caleb Martin.

Looking at the halftime stat sheet where Miami had 74 points scored, Caleb Martin probably isn’t even top 5 in players that would jump off that piece of paper. And that’s why I bring up the point underrated. We know what Martin is at this stage, and he’s widely appreciated, but passing right over the fact that his solidity is expected is just unfair. He’s polished up his three-ball, he provides a splash of rim pressure that wasn’t originally expected when the signing was made, and his defensive positioning stands out more than anything. It’s one thing to be very good and talented at pressuring from baseline to baseline, but it’s another thing to just always be in the right spot. Caleb Martin is both of those. Yes, he’s gone from two-way to unlimited regular season games available, but maybe that next step will need to be taken pretty soon.

#4: Some minor player evaluations from this one.

In a game like this, it’s important to pack up the youthful evaluations into one section. The main one that we already know about is Omer Yurtseven, but he deserves some love too. The fact that he went from a Summer League product to a back-end roster guy to one of the primary guys available is just wild. And another double-double added to the catalog just shows his potential. But to discuss some more of the 10 days, looking back at my recent piece, Haywood Highsmith was the guy I was highest on. He’s a Heat guy: plays bigger than he is, plays defense, and provides enough offensive spacing with his corner jumper. And well, he showcased all three of those things in his minutes. Obviously it’s hard to lock up a spot at this point, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they come back to him at some point in the future.

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#5: The difference between Tyler Herro this year and last year.

Tyler Herro didn’t have a great game tonight with his inefficient shooting. I’ve seen him navigate almost every coverage this league has thrown at him, but the one thing that has proved to bother him more than anything is length. He saw a bit of it early when they would switch Christian Wood onto him, and it led to him having to slow things down and make the right decision. But the difference with a down game from Herro now compared to before is he can still impact winning without being that total scorer. Tonight, his passing shined again just like it has much of this season, but that keeps him above water. Being able to have the ball in his hands a ton, still collapsing the defense, and making the correct reads with drop-offs or skip passes is major for his development. Of course late-game scoring is still needed from him in games like this, but him surviving matters big time in the big picture.

 

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Breaking Down the Games of the Latest Miami Heat 10-Day Contract Grabs

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This has been a rather interesting season for the entire NBA, but it has felt like Miami’s been paving their own path from the rest of the league all season.

While the rest of the teams are dealing with a revolving door of guys entering the health and safety protocols, the Heat’s issues have been strictly injury based. Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, Markieff Morris, and Dewayne Dedmon have all dealt with those issues first hand.

Caleb Martin entered the protocols a few weeks ago, and it took him about 18 days to get back up and running with the Heat again, which was just 4 days ago. Now, the Heat have had a flurry of others enter those protocols this week. Kyle Lowry, Udonis Haslem, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Tucker, and Zylan Cheatham.

That means Miami has some 10 day availabilities wide open over this short period of time, while Wednesday’s game vs San Antonio was postponed as they didn’t meet the required threshold of guys available to play.

So, after Miami signed 3 different guys to 10 day contracts, let’s take a look through what they can possibly provide, since playing time will most likely be provided in these odd circumstances…

Aric Holman

Aric Holman is the perfect place to start in this one, since frankly, he’s the most intriguing of the bunch.

Miami picking him up may have been a bit more forced than the others, since they did it due to the fact he was in “driving distance” from San Antonio, but could Miami have lucked out?

Most of the time when picking up guys for a week and a half, as others land in protocols, veterans and experience are the way to go, especially on good teams. They just need immediate production over a “high ceiling,” or long term project.

But while Holman’s bag may be broad, he has the build to contribute at this point in time.

He’s a 6 foot 10 big, who has the body control and play-style of a guard. Holman is mostly a pop threat, after shooting 44% and 43% in his last two seasons at Mississippi State respectively, but those numbers have slightly fallen off a bit recently in the G-League.

Looking at the clips above, once again, it’s intriguing. Running the offense from the right wing as a drive and kick threat, while others set him the screens instead of the other way around. He slips the screen into the corner and knocks down the slightly contested triple. But when evaluating guys with that size and length, most shots are essentially uncontested.

He also has a bit of a handle, which elevates his guard-like play even more. Yes, I know what you’re thinking: how has a 6 foot 10 shooter who can put the ball on the deck not been picked up until this point? Well, like any young player, some weaknesses are attached as well.

The tag that continues to label him is that he’s not the greatest defender, and that is clearly from a team perspective. His shot-blocking ability is up there, and he can rebound at a very good level, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on.

Another point to be made is that he will be utilized in the exact opposite way that Omer Yurtseven has been used this season. After seeing Yurtseven mix it up from rolling to popping in Summer League, we’ve seen that simplify down totally to quick dives and post-play.

With Holman, post play wouldn’t even seem to be possible. He will strictly be a pop-out shooter, and maybe he can provide something as that wing spacer over this next stretch.

Kyle Guy

When Kyle Guy was signed late Tuesday night, many felt it was just the “Strus replacer,” after he entered the protocols literally minutes before the game against the Washington Wizards. But when I saw this pick-up, my initial thought was more guards will be entering the protocols pretty soon.

And well, that was the case with Vincent after he rapid tested before the trip out to San Antonio.

No, Kyle Guy is not the Vincent replacer since their games are nothing alike, but he is a guy who has plenty of basketball experience and can provide something offensively as a potential spacer and plug and play “guy.”

During his 3 years in college, Guy shot 50% from three on 3 attempts, 39% from three on 6 attempts, and 43% from deep on 7 and a half attempts. Clearly, he has a shooting resume, which although didn’t work out too well in Sacramento, has picked right back up in the G-League.

The interesting thing about future lineups moving forward is that I would continue to expect Tyler Herro to come off the bench. With Lowry expected to return Friday, and Jimmy Butler and Duncan Robinson expected to be healthy, everybody should stay where they are.

But with Guy possibly stepping in for Vincent and Strus, that means he will be playing next to Herro instead of for him. I do think Guy has a better handle and control for the offense than people give him credit for, but will that fully translate over from G-League to the NBA level?

I believe so, since much of the league right now *is* G-league talent.

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It’s pretty simple with Kyle Guy: provide some shooting when called upon, and everything else will work out around it. This is no longer Martin or Strus trying to will this team to victories with guys out. Miami will have Lowry, Butler, and Herro to do the heavy lifting, so all that is needed is some complementary skills.

And Guy can actually fill that void pretty well in the role I envision they place him in.

Haywood Highsmith

Haywood Highsmith just reminds me of a Miami Heat 10 day contract guy, and no, not because of his block on Dwyane Wade’s self lob in the game against Philly.

For one, his overall build fits the Heat’s past. Guys that play bigger than they are, thrive on physicality and athleticism, and just compete on both ends really hard. That’s pretty much my evaluation of Highsmith when looking over his game.

Highsmith is just one of those guys that’ll be everywhere on the floor in these G-League games. Under the rim for unexpected offensive rebounds and put-backs, active defensively, and well, he’s been shooting the ball a lot better as of late.

Over his 12 G-League games this season, he’s shooting 39% from deep on 6 attempts a game. In a Heat offense, what would be his offensive role? Well, just think of PJ Tucker lite.

He’s a bit lengthier than Tucker overall, but as I said, you wouldn’t think he’s only 6 foot 7 when watching him play. But when I bring up Tucker, I mean that his role would be strictly corner spacing, some screen & rolling, hand-offs on the wing, and plenty of dunker spot reps.

Yeah, the Tucker role.

Obviously they wouldn’t put anything close to the amount Miami puts on Tucker’s plate, but they just need a guy who can kind of fill his spots on the floor, just as a body that can pull stuff away from the on-ball action.

The Kyle Guy pick-up felt like the best option for their current needs with Vincent and Strus out.

The Aric Holman pick-up felt like “no risk, high reward,” just with the amount of talent he seems to have.

The Haywood Highsmith pick-up felt like a guy they’ve been eyeing. Obviously that’s just pure speculation, but between his player build and his name coming out of left field in many ways, this may be the guy that sticks the longest.

And by that, I mean possibly a second 10-day if he plays well, or they could circle back down the line whenever their roster spots open up.

Either way, these guys will get their opportunity in this day-by-day league. Next game is Friday night against Houston, and we have no idea who will be available. But these guys will be ready to showcase themselves either way.

 

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