The numbers-crunchers (kinda) like the Miami Heat

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While 538 is best known for its political predictions, the statistical website runs plenty of models on sports too.

And it has run one on the Miami Heat and other NBA teams.

Here’s the entire article, which we will explore in more detail — zeroing in on specific Heat players — in future posts here.

But, for now, here’s a look at how they see the team as a whole, based on this calculus…

How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts — tracking injuries, trades and other player transactions — to generate talent estimates for each team. A team’s full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup.

 

— They have the Heat as the 15th best team in the league, with a projected record of 42-40. That’s actually below the over-under at most Las Vegas sportsbooks.

— That would have them 6th in the East, behind the Bucks, 76ers, Celtics, Raptors and Pacers. The Nets and Magic are next. If Kevin Durant returns during the season, expect the odds to change.

— They have the Heat with a 78 percent chance of making the playoffs. In the West, that would be significantly lower.

— Chance of making the NBA Finals? That’s at 3 percent.

— Championship chance? Less than 1 percent.

On that last one, they obviously haven’t watched Tyler Herro enough.

Shifting heights… and being high on Heat roster

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The NBA recently got real.

The league mandated that all teams must annually update their players height measurements without shoes and the measurements for the Heat players are finally in.

Down from “6-7” with shoes, Justise Winslow could be the potential opening night starting guard for the Heat with official height measurements of “6-6”. Rookie Tyler Herro who was drafted 13th overall from Kentucky will officially listed at 6-5 a little shorter than his combine height of 6-6, second round pick from Stanford KZ Okpala official numbers measure him at 6-8 instead of 6-9. Heat guards Dion Waiters and Goran Dragic, Winslow’s most likely potential backcourt mates, both were listed at “6-3.

The frontcourt?

The Heat’s big trade acquisition, new face of the franchise and likely starting small forward Jimmy Butler, who is “6’8” in shoes, will officially be listed an inch shorter at “6-7,” likewise for James Johnson, who is away from the team until he meets his conditioning requirements. And the same  for Duncan Robinson who also will now be officially listed an inch shorter at “6-7.” The Heat will have one 7 footer on the roster instead of two, as Meyers Leonard,  who will remain a seven footer is down by an inch from 7-1 to 7-0 and Kelly Olynyk from 7-0 to 6-11. Next in line to be the Heat franchise center, Bam Adebayo, is measured at 6-9, down from 6-10.

So basically every player except for Dragic, Devon Reed and Udonis Haslem shrunk an inch without shoes. Does this change anything? No, it doesn’t. However, while we’re discussing players heights, what this does say is that the Heat will be a lot bigger, especially in the wing positions than previous seasons. In the second quarter of the scrimmage on Sunday, with Olynyk injured, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra started a lineup of Winslow (6-6), Butler (6-7), Robinson (6-7) Adebayo (6-9) and Leonard (7-0). That is a huge line up for a heat team that often deployed 6-3 guards such as Dragic, Waiters, and Tyler Johnson together in recent years.

Another big lineup could feature Winslow, Butler and Okpala but we should expect the second-round rookie to play more in versatile lineups at the four, similar to James Johnson the last two seasons. Spoelstra could also go smaller by sliding Winslow and Butler down to the 3 and 4, with Dragic and Waiters at the 1 and 2, although I don’t think it would be wise. So many possibilities. What about Herro in the backcourt with Winslow and Butler along with Olynyk, Leonard or Jones next to Adebayo?

Needless to say, this roster is one of the more versatile and flexible groups Spoelstra has had recently. The versatility is not just measured with a ruler, but with skillsets.

Butler and the Bucket: the Love Affair continues

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We first saw this Butler affair flourish in Chicago.

That’s where Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro started posting Instagram love letters to each other, shooting and sneering together in workouts.

Now, though, their affection is in full bloom.

Jimmy Butler clearly likes guys who get it. Who not only can play, but play really really hard. It’s already apparent to him that the rookie does that.

And Tuesday, in the Miami Heat’s preseason opening win against the San Antonio Spurs, Heat fans saw that up close. Herro scored 18 in his preseason debut, every which way. But he also dished, blocked, scrambled and sprinted.

And Butler loved it.

Well, he didn’t love everything.

He doesn’t love Herro’s hair.

Here’s a clip from after the game.

You’ll probably figure out when the rookie walked by him, and then walked out.

Get your Jimmy Canastas t-shirt here!

Herro Shines in Miami Heat Win Over Spurs

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The night started as Jimmy Butler’s show, but it ended as Tyler Herro’s coming out party.

Herro shined in his debut, scoring a team high 18 pts while leading the team in its 89 to 107 victory over the Spurs.  Herro was a game high +29 and showed every facet of his game.

“It’s great for young guys to come in and have that confidence to be aggressive and to feel comfortable,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “I’m sure he had a lot of nerves coming into tonight, not knowing what to expect.”

Spoelstra’s juge experimental starting lineup of Justise Winslow, Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Meyers Leonard and Bam Adebayo got off to a rough start.  The defense looked porous and the offense anemic, but after a few trips up and down the floor they seemed to settle in.  Butler, especially, looked like he preferred to defer and didn’t score his first points until the second quarter – missing his first three shots mostly under duress or late in the shot clock.

Business really picked up when the bench unit entered the game late in the first quarter, led by Goran Dragic and the much-heralded Herro.  Herro’s full offensive arsenal was on display in the first half. Step back three pointers, dribble drive push shots in the lane and turnaround midrange jumpers.  By the end of the first half, Herro had the American Airlines Arena crowd breathlessly anticipating every possession.

Adebayo and Leonard proved more than capable in the rebounding department, temporarily putting to rest a large concern this offseason with the departure of Hassan Whiteside.  “We have to (rebound), not just necessarily Meyers. We have to be a group rebounding team. We talk about being one of the better defensive teams in the league, but we have to finish possessions,” said Spoelstra. The two combined for 19 rebounds while playing only 23 and 24 minutes. Adebayo also chipped in with 14 pts.

Winslow proved capable of handling the offense at times in an uneven performance, including a disappointing 0-4 from three point range after making the shot a priority this summer.  After shooting almost 38% last season, this may prove to be much ado about nothing, but it’s a play that he needs to make if he wants to continue to lead the starting unit.  Winslow finished with 11 pts, 3 assists and 4 turnovers.

Chris Silva was another bright spot for a Heat team in search of size off the bench. “He made us watch him. He’s had those moments in training camp too,” said Spoelstra.  “He had a great block tonight, but he probably had 5 blocks better than that in training camp.”

Silva finished with 16 points and 9 rebounds in only 14 minutes.

Spoelstra Rolls Out Surprise Miami Heat Starting Five

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Erik Spoelstra is rolling out a starting lineup of Justise Winslow, Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Meyers Leonard and Bam Adebayo in the Heat’s preseason opener vs. San Antonio.  Essentially placing Jimmy Butler in the shooting guard role to the surprise of most fans and pundits.

It’s only preseason of course but the lineup gives the Heat 2 things that many feared problematic coming into the season – Size and Shooting.  With Robinson and Leonard as floor spacers and Winslow developing a stellar 3 point shot of his own, Butler and Adebayo should have plenty of room to work in the middle.

The lineup also gives a preview of what Spoelstra is planning to do at the starting point guard position with Winslow taking the floor ahead of Goran Dragic.  Dragic has the potential to be a dynamic scorer off the bench, pairing him with 30-11 running mate Dion Waiters.

Whether this starting lineup will be a mainstay going forward or if we are just looking at placeholders until the return of James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk, the message is clear – Spoelstra thinks he has depth with this team and isn’t afraid to try different combinations.

Don’t forget about the Meyers Leonard addition

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Meyers Leonard is not the name that comes to mind of Heat fans when thinking of new acquisitions. In an offseason that netted Miami a top 10 player in Jimmy Butler (yea, I said it), Leonard’s name gets lost in the fanfare.

Don’t let it.

Not just because he and his wife Elle are social media superstars.

 

Or because he looks so damn good in a vice uni. Right, Meyers Leonard?

 

 

Fans should be excited because Meyers Leonard has the chance to be a key contributor on a Heat team poised to finish in the top half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

The former 11th overall pick is coming off his most efficient offensive season, averaging 5.9 points a game on 55% shooting. Not to mention The Hammer was an 84% free-throw shooter in 2018.

But the big man’s most important spot will be a couple of steps back. Leonard shot 45 perfect from three in 2018, standing at an unblockable seven feet and one inch off the ground. And if anyone can maximize a stretch big it is Heat coach, and recently richer man, Erik Spoelstra (see Christopher Wesson Bosh).

And we saw some signs in the Heat’s annual Red, White and Pink scrimmage, when Leonard made four three-pointers in six attempts.

All that being said, he might not even be the best three-point shooter in his own house.

 

 

Heat fans should do themselves a favor and follow this man both on and off the court.

We got [BIG] shooters.

 

Miami Heat scrimmage showcases team’s new look

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The Dolphins couldn’t lose Sunday.

Neither could the Hurricanes.

And of course, neither could the Heat.

They were playing themselves, after all, for the Red, White and Pink Scrimmage to benefit breast cancer research.

Naturally, not much defense was played. But the energy was different — as in better — than it’s been the past couple of seasons. This team feels fresh.

Here’s the best from the day….

 

 

Jimmy Butler: “Who says I’m the best player?”

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It’s odd to think of Jimmy Butler as especially modest.

He’ll openly tell you that he will beat you at just about anything, whether it’s dominoes or paddleball.

Basketball?

Well, he’s willing to concede a bit.

Pat Riley called him a top-10 player.

Erik Spoelstra declared him “one of the 15 best players on the planet.”

Jimmy?

He took some exception Friday to me casually calling him the best player on the Miami Heat.

It’s not surprising that Butler would say the Heat “have a team full of leaders.” He has spent the offseason, since his acquisition, taking players such as Justise Winslow, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo under his wing. But not just that. It’s clear he wants them to speak up. At Friday’s practice, Butler spent a lot of time with the back end of the roster, the guys competing for two-way contracts who probably won’t break camp with the team.

But I followed the initial question about leadership by noting that “teams typically follow the lead of their best player.” Because they do. The star sets the tone. He’s the star, the only established one on the roster. No one else on the Heat made the top 90 of most of the media ranking lists.

I wanted to know if he was comfortable with that role. He entered the league as the 30th overall pick, and wasn’t supposed to be in this position.

“I mean, who’s to say that I’m the best player on the team?” Butler said. “That’s just people’s opinion. I know I don’t go about it like that. I just go out and compete. I don’t think I’m bad, don’t get me wrong. But the best player or not? I just do my job, night in and night out, and help this team win, guarantee that.”

This comment may be construed incorrectly by some.

I don’t think Butler is shirking the responsibility. He knows the weight that his contract and personality carry. I think he’s trying to show he’s different than in other stops. And that he needs and wants help from his new group to get the Heat back to their rightful place.

 

 

Embiid Tells ESPN “Butler Was a Big Loss”

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Joel Embiid took a few shots to his own teammates, somehow…

Apparently, Philadelphia 76ers fans don’t agree with their star center about Heat forward Jimmy Butler.

While those fans have been furiously tweeting that Butler didn’t choose “winning” when he decided to leave for Miami in free agency this summer, Joel Embiid told Rachel Nichols of ESPN in a sitdown, ”I wish Jimmy was on the team.”

“When it was the 4th quarter we knew, the ball would be in, me (sic) or Jimmy’s hands. I knew I could count on him.”

Embiid went on to speak about how he can improve his abilities in late-game situations, but does not speak of how this role could possibly be shared with other teammates. This includes former first overall pick Ben Simmons, who has received criticism for his poor long-range shooting throughout his career.

It appears Simmons still has work to do if he wants to reach Jimmy Butler level of trust with Embiid.

So what was Butler’s response to this?

Here’s the full clip (warning: there’s Jimmy language in it):

Butler on Embiid: “That’s my dog, for real. We talk all the time. Even when I was traded here, I told him to continue to dominate. Continue to prove why you’re the best player in this f—ing league. I believe that.”

 

 

 

Heat Camp: the best of Miami’s first day of training

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Heat Camp is on its way!

And we are as excited as you to follow how the Miami Heat works towards a new season that comes with lots of expectations.

I made the trip to West Palm Beach for the opening of Miami Heat training camp at the former Northwood University — which is now Keiser. The media saw only the last couple of plays of the scrimmage before Erik Spoelstra and the players were made available.

Here are my observations from both Twitter accounts…