Will the Dolphins win a game? Numbers (sort of) say no

It’s time to call upon the ghost of Greg Camarillo.

Actually, the former Dolphins receiver is very much alive, living in California with his family (and you can follow him @CatchCamarillo).

But some of the recent dour forecasts of the upcoming Dolphins season do bring the Stanford grad to mind. It was the crafty Camarillo, after all, who scored the touchdown in overtime of a game against the Baltimore Ravens in 2007 to keep Cam Cameron and company from a winless season.

So could something like this happen again, with the Dolphins rebuilding or regrouping or resetting or tanking or whatever?

A tweet Friday afternoon set of a bit of a firestorm.

If you can read that, congrats on your eyesight.

What it says is that the Dolphins aren’t projected to win a game. Not one. Out of 16. Not against anyone.

Now, of course, this requires some context.

Some were happy about this.

After all, they have their eyes on a greater prize.

We are fortunate to have a bit of a numbers savant in our network — Chris Kouffman (@CKParrot) of Three Yards Per Carry.

Here’s how he sees it:

So while the Dolphins may be favored to lose every game individually, at this early stage before rosters are padded and trimmed over the summer, Clay’s charts aren’t actually saying that is likely to happen.

Rather, the Dolphin should finish up with about 4 wins, which may be bad enough to get them one of the top quarterbacks — and probably would ensure that such an addition would be anointed ahead of Josh Rosen immediately.

But again, much can change.

Remember what happened after the Camarillo catch season?

With a roster that was turned over some, but not completely – and with a more competent coaching staff like Miami appears to have now — the Dolphins won 11 games.

And there’s some history with Clay, whom we hope to have on our podcast.

See how our Josh Houtz reacted to Clay’s views last season (Clay turned out to be sort of right).

Sorry Houtz. We still love ya.


Photo by our Tony Capobianco. 

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