How the Top of the NBA Draft May Play Out

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After the Milwaukee Bucks won the NBA championship, that doesn’t mean the NBA calendar stops. The calendar goes on with free agency starting August 2nd but first the NBA draft happens July 29th. The draft is typically where teams are built that is especially the case with small market teams. In this draft there is certainly some difference makers at the top which is not the case every year. 

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#1 Detroit Pistons- The Pistons hold the number one overall pick following a 20-52 season this year. While they need some help and especially some stars to gain more fan attention, they have a couple nice pieces as well. Detroit signed forward Jerami Grant last summer from the Denver Nuggets in what now looks like a team friendly 3 year 60-million-dollar contract. In his first season with Detroit Grant averaged a career high 22.3 points per game and shot 35% from three on 6.1 attempts per game. Forward Saddiq Bey was a pleasant surprise for the pistons this year as well. After being acquired in a draft day trade from the Nets, Bey started 53 games as a rookie averaging over 12 points per game 4.5 rebounds per game. Bey landed on the All Rookie first team and finished fourth in rookie of the year.

If Detroit can add presumed #1 pick Cade Cunningham to the group, they can compete for a play in tournament spot sooner than later. In his one year at Oklahoma State Cunningham averaged 20.1 points to go along with 6.2 rebounds,3.5 assists and 84.6% from the free throw line. Cunningham shot 40% from three as well and Cade didn’t have much help on his team and still put up good numbers. Cade is a three-level scorer that any team in the league would be lucky to have and be an instant impact player. Cade had a performance vs eventual National Champion Baylor in the Big 12 tournament that showed just how great of a player he is. He scored 25 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists. Cade shot 7-16 from the floor and 4-10 from three but he turned it on in the second half scoring 20 of his 25 points and upsetting Baylor to reach the Big 12 conference championship.

Pair him with some pieces like Grant and Bey and you have a nice core. Cade controls the pace on the court very well similar to a guy like Luka Doncic does although Cade isn’t on that level as a passer. Cade is a no brainer at #1 and could set Detroit up for years of success in the eastern conference.

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#2 Houston Rockets- When James Harden forced his way out at the start of this season everything changed for Houston moving forward. Considering that Harden is without a doubt a top 10 player the return Houston got left a lot to be desired. They received a first round pick from Cleveland via Milwaukee and four first rounders and four pick swaps from the Nets. While that is a lot of draft ammo those picks won’t be very high as the Nets will be good as will the Bucks. A year prior Houston traded two firsts and two pick swaps to OKC for Russell Westbrook and while they were able to keep this pick as it was top 4 protected it still will be a problem moving forward in the draft.

That makes this pick incredibly important and Houston can’t miss with it. Houston is a more attractive free agent destination than some, but you still need good players for someone to want to come join as we’ve seen with the Knicks for years now. In today’s NBA you need a guard that can score at a minimum and that is where I think this pick should head towards. That player very well may be Jalen Green who played in the G-League last year after his high school career.

Last year in G League, Green averaged 17.9 points per game on 46.1% from the field and 36.5% from three. That is pretty good considering he was just 18 playing against players much older and experienced than him. With more volume and more reps Green will increase those numbers and only improve as a player. While Green may not be what James Harden was you need to find someone who can replace some of what he provided. Green can certainly do some of that and someone like Green will be attractive for free agents to come and play with. If you don’t have scoring from your backcourt, you stand no chance in the current NBA. Green can also score from all three levels which is extremely valuable with the volume in which the three-point shot is shot now.

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#3 Cleveland Cavaliers- Since LeBron James left in free agency during the 2018 summer the Cavs are 60-159. This is a big draft for Cleveland as they are a team that will need to build in the draft vs building in free agency. Cleveland even with LeBron has had problems attracting free agents. They need to draft someone they can build around and hopefully a star will want to play with them. They have drafted guards Darius Garland and Colin Sexton the last couple years, but they don’t seem to be a great fit together. There have been rumors that Sexton is on the trade block as he seeks a rookie extension. That could free up some space for Garland to be able to operate more in his space without Sexton clogging the backcourt next to him. The Cavs were able to get center Jarett Allen from Brooklyn in the James Harden trade for just a first round pick they obtained from Milwaukee. After joining Cleveland Allen averaged 13.2 points, 9.9 rebounds and over a block per game. That is a very nice piece for Cleveland but the problem with it is now Allen is a restricted free agent and seeking around 100 million dollars.

The Cavs may be better off letting someone else give him that money and agreeing to a sign and trade and getting a pick back. They are in a major rebuild and giving Allen that kind of money may not be the best choice for them. They are in a perfect spot to draft a versatile big Evan Mobley from USC with this pick. As good as Allen was Mobley brings more to the game than just points and rebounds like a traditional big. In his one season at USC Mobley averaged 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.9 blocks while shooting 57.8% from the field.

Mobley brings something to the table similar to Miami’s Bam Adebayo but even more offensive skill coming out of college. Bam is a great defensive player and Mobley may not be quite at that level, but I see some similarities and shows even more on offense than Bam. If Cleveland drafts Mobley at worst they have a guy that can hold down the big position for years to come and is a great foundation piece. Best case they found their next star and someone to build around. Cleveland hasn’t always taken the safe pick in the draft but if they do so this time it will pay off in some way at least.

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JRod’s Corner: Giannis’ Win Brings Back Facetime Talk

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It seems like the talking heads on your favorite and maybe not so favorite sports outlets have been very concerned with who can and cannot be the face of a league.

Stephen A. Smith was lambasted for declaring that Angels phenom, Shohei Ohtani, could not be the face of Major League Baseball because he needs an interpreter. Cries of xenophobia rained down upon the pundit and he publicly apologized. While the lack of English may affect Ohtani’s marketing dollars, he is certainly the most popular player and the face of MLB with Fernando Tatis, Jr right behind him.

Now another commentator, Emmanuel Acho, says it is impossible for newly crowned NBA Champion, Giannis Antetokounmpo, to be the face of the NBA. Acho’s remarks were less anti-foreigner. Kinda.

Listening back to Acho’s segment — which Speak for Yourself has since deleted because the reaction was so negative — he says that to be the face of the NBA needs to be “relatable”. Really? What more relatable than the American dream? I guess Acho doesn’t view the NBA as an immigrant’s league. Antetokounmpo, who is from Greece, has been a twitter darling since his debut in 2013 posting about trying Kool-Aid, eating corn dogs and drinking smoothies for the first time.

But let’s get back to Acho’s “relatable” argument. He goes on to mention LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Michael Jordan. They were the faces of the NBA because we knew their stories. The good, bad and ugly of it. And according Acho, we just don’t know much about Giannis.

At 26 years old, The Greek Freak has done it all in the NBA. Literally.

Five-time All-Star, two-time MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, NBA Champion, Finals MVP. He’s a Hall of Famer right now!

If Giannis keeps winning; we will know his stories. That’s why Bron, Kobe, Magic, Larry and MJ were the faces of the NBA and Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone and Charles Barkley were not. Championships.

Stephen A. and Emmanuel are cooking up hot takes. It’s their job. It’s show business. I get that. We’re going to seeing a lot more of Giannis. The endorsements are coming, the late-night TV shows, the books and even the movies. Ready or not it’s showtime meets facetime.

 

You can follow Jim Rodriguez at @JRodShow on Twitter and Instagram. 

 

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Can Mike Gesicki be a Top Five TE This Season?

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All eyes will be on Tua, but will his lock on Mike Gesicki this season?

 

Entering a crucial fourth year, Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki looks to take the leap into the discussion as one of the game’s best.

So what will it take to get there?

In order to gain some perspective, a comparison to the best current NFL tight ends seemed like a nice place to start

Travis Kelce and now Darren Waller have emerged as the top two tight ends, with George Kittle still right there after an abbreviated season due to injury.

What Waller and Kelce have in common is an enormous target share, as both posted nearly identical numbers.

Waller led all NFL tight ends with 146 targets in 2020, with Kelce just behind him at 145.

The next highest tight end targeted was Logan Thomas with 110, while just two others broke 100 targets -Evan Engram (109) and  T.J Hockenson (101).

Targets are just one part of the equation, what you do with them matters.

Kelce and Waller both hauled in over 72% of their targets in 2020, while Gesicki caught slightly over 62% of his.

Many factors contribute to this, whether it be different quarterbacks throughout the year or execution in other areas.

Nonetheless, there is plenty of room for improvement.

 

Let’s run some numbers.

Say Gesicki can accumulate 100 targets and improve his catch percentage even slightly to 68%.

That sets a floor of 68 receptions, which would be 15 more than Gesicki had in 2020.

Where Gesicki has already shown a high ceiling in comparison to other tight ends is in yards-per-reception.

Last year Gesicki ranked third among tight ends with 13.3 yards-per-reception, ahead of Waller (11.2) and Kelce (13.1).

With 68 receptions and at the same yards-per-reception, that would put Gesicki over 900 yards receiving.

Now with a 17-game slate, this seems even more attainable.

Gesicki tied for fifth among tight ends with six touchdowns, averaging one about every nine receptions.

Increased targets and improved catch percentage could see him at eight or even nine scores in 2021.

A stat line of 68/900/8 would all have been top five marks in the NFL last year.

Add an improved quarterback and more deep threats in Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller, Gesicki sits as a prime candidate for a breakout season.

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Miami Hurricanes

Miami Hurricanes: Don Chaney Jr. poised to build off strong end to 2020

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When you look at the Miami Hurricanes roster, they have a collection of talented running backs. Some are more talented than others. Some also have more experience than others. With five in total, one name I would pay attention to is Don Chaney Jr.

He was not the main back in the Miami rushing attack last year. Rather, he played in spurts, and played well. Jaylan Knighton and Cam’Ron Harris made up the bulk of the Miami rushing attack last year, leading Chaney to hardly see any action. Even still, he was able to shine towards the end of the year.

Take the contest against Duke on December 5. In that game, he recorded nine carries for 62 yards. A couple weeks later, he provided strong production in the Cheez-It Bowl. He recorded six carries for 50 yards including a 27-yard rush that was his longest of the evening. He was a bright spot in what was a dismal game overall.

In that game, he was able to put this full skillset on display. He ran hard, and he ran physically. Those two traits in particular were things that were missing from the Miami rushing attack for a good portion of last season. He also hit the holes hard ,and it was not afraid to bear all over defenders when he needed to.  With his performance in that game, he gave a potential preview what could be coming down the road.

His good end to last season is only one reason to be excited about his potential heading into 2021. The other reason is his impressive numbers in the weight room. Chaney told the media his squat was to 555 pounds, and his benchpress was up to 315 pounds. Those numbers are certainly not too shabby.

Between his good performance at the end of last season and work Chaney has put in this off-season, I see him having a breakout year. He could be a key piece for a Miami Hurricanes rushing attack that ranked seventh overall in the ACC in 2020. That number is not too shabby, but it’s one that can certainly be improved upon. Chaney could bring stability to that portion of the offense.

Chaney figures to be high on the depth chart for Miami in 2021, so he will have opportunities to prove himself. If he can show the same tenacity and physicality that he did at the end of last season, the starting running back job could be his for the taking  sooner rather than later.

 

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Miami Hurricanes

Miami Hurricanes: Demarcus Van Dyke gaining momentum with Shemar Stewart looming

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Th. Miami Hurricanes have started to see some commitments trickle in over the past couple of days, and they are still very much in play for some of others. One of those players is 2022 five-star defensive end Shemar Stewart.

Stewart is the seventh overall defensive end in his class, and the second overall player in his class from the state of Florida per the 247Sports Composite Rankings.

It’s worth noting that Miami is recruiting him via cornerbacks coach Demarcus Van Dyke as the primary recruiter. Van Dyke is on a little bit of a momentum swing as of late. He got cornerback Khamauri Rogers to commit on June 19.  He  also received a commitment from cornerback Chris Graves on July 9. In doing so, Miami has silently he can to put together an extremely strong group of corners.

This is certainly encouraging because corner has been a position that the Miami Hurricanes have struggled to recruit over the past couple of seasons. Now it is going to be a position of strength, assuming Miami develops them properly

This could bode well for Shemar Stewart

There have been a couple of developments over the past couple of days that have put Stewart a little bit into focus for Miami. For one,  Josh Newberg of 247Sports put in a “high confidence” score for Stewart in his Crystal Ball prediction on July 11. Andrew Ivins and Steve Wiltfong both have put in Crystal Balls for Miami as well, but they are “low confidence” scores. The newest Crystal Ball could be a telling sign.

Secondly, there is no denying that Van Dyke has generated a little bit personal momentum on the recruiting trail. I truly believe that this could work in Miami’s favor. One could argue that Miami received two commitments at corner because that was a position of need.

However, there is always a recruiting pitch that coaches tell recruits. Van Dyke’s seems to be working.  This could be another opportunity for him to strike while the proverbial iron is hot.

It will be interesting to see the correlation between Van Dyke’s success and Stewart’s recruiting process. It could be extremely evident, or it could not play a factor at all.

If Van Dyke can land another big recruit in the state of Florida, that would certainly reflect positively on him. Miami is going up against Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas A&M among others  for Stewart. It will certainly not be easy, but judging by his recent success, I can see him luring in another big fish.

 

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Xavien Howard reported to Miami Dolphins training camp but his contract demands remain unresolved.

Fresh Perspective: Top 5 Miami Dolphins to watch in training camp

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It’s always fun to play the prediction game. I’ve already predicted the Miami Dolphins 53-man roster on both offense and defense, and I’ve even offered a perspective on the top five training camp battles to watch as it inches ever closer. But there is still one topic that hasn’t been elaborated on yet. In the spirit of my YouTube show – “Pulse of Fins Nation” – I asked you, the audience, what player you wanted to watch more than anyone else in training camp.

Immediately I disqualified Tua Tagovailoa. Obviously, everyone wants to see what he’s going to do. If he doesn’t perform, it likely won’t matter what anyone else on the team does. There would be no point in asking the question without setting those parameters. Tagovailoa is without a doubt the most polarizing figure in Dolphins history since…the last franchise QB Miami had on their roster, Ryan Tannehill.

So if we’re doing a countdown of the top five Dolphins to watch in training camp are, Tagovailoa tops the list, no questions asked. That’s why for the purposes of this story, he’s being disqualified. It’s too easy. So here are the top five Miami Dolphins to watch – according to you, the audience – not named Tua Tagovailoa.

5. Myles Gaskin – RB

Considering how much emphasis was placed on the running back position during the offseason, it’s no surprise that people want to see what Myles Gaskin does with another year as the lead back. Granted, it’s assumed the Miami Dolphins will use a committee approach, but Gaskin will always get first crack at it. It’s his job to lose.

The number of people coming out of nowhere to defend Gaskin is remarkable. It wasn’t that long ago that Dolphins fans wanted desperately for the team to draft a fresh running back, like Najee Harris. Now, there’s no choice but to hope that a potentially improved offensive line will make Gaskin look much better than last season.

To play devil’s advocate, it’s not as if Gaskin is a bad running back. Far from it. He was a lot better than anyone expected him to be. In the ten games that he played, dealing with the reality of Covid-19 and an injured knee, Gaskin put together 972 total yards (584 rushing and 388 receiving) and five total touchdowns. Production was his claim to fame back in college, and that’s what he’s been doing in the pros. He’s not the fastest, not the strongest, not the most talented. However, he produces, just like he always has.

Everyone is waiting to see if an improved WR corps and offensive line will increase Gaskin’s level of production. He’s definitely an underdog type of player. He’s faced the possibility of being replaced several times throughout the offseason and he’s still standing. The coaching staff clearly has faith in him, camp will tell if that faith was well placed.

4. Xavien Howard – CB

Let’s make this abundantly clear right now. No one is suggesting that Xavien Howard needs to prove anything. He’s a top five cornerback in the NFL, a turnover machine that makes quarterbacks pay if they make a mistake. And, up until recently, he was the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history.

All these votes to see Xavien Howard in training camp are not referring to seeing him perform. They’re referring to seeing him show up to training camp in the first place. Howard’s holdout is well-documented at this point. For whatever reason, Howard is not happy with the Miami Dolphins. Is it the lack of remaining guaranteed money on his contract? Bruised ego due to the fact that his teammate Byron Jones is making more than he is? There’s no way to know for sure.

Only time will tell whether Howard decides to show up to training camp or not. If he does, then even if he plays disgruntled, Howard will play. Then the Dolphins can explore giving him more money later on after the salary cap stops being such a looming figure.

If he doesn’t show up, then there’s no question the defense will take a huge step back in 2021. That is, unless, another player steps up in a big way. More on that later.

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3. Jaelen Phillips – LB

Of all the rookies that the Miami Dolphins added to the roster this year, perhaps the one with the most upside of all is linebacker Jaelen Phillips out of the University of Miami. His history is well-documented. He briefly retired from football after all the injuries he suffered in college, but ultimately came back and singled himself out as a potentially elite pass rusher in the 2021 draft class.

It says a lot about a player that even with that injury history, a team still feels he’s worth drafting with the 18th overall pick. To put it in very simple terms, Phillips has a very good chance of becoming what Dion Jordan was supposed to be when the Dolphins drafted him 3rd overall in the 2013 NFL draft.

Strange how long ago that seems now.

Phillips is big, he’s fast, he can rush the passer and he can cover. He’s a perfect chess piece for Brian Flores to incorporate into the defense. His development will be crucial for the defense to take the next step into becoming the league’s most dangerous unit.

2. Jaylen Waddle – WR

Everyone knows what Waddle brings to the table. He is speed incarnate, and videos of how difficult he’s going to be to cover with the twitch he shows in route-running have fans salivating at the idea of watching Tua Tagovailoa throwing him the football again like the good ol’ days at Alabama.

Just like Phillips, Waddle is an extremely high-ceiling player, which seems to be the theme for the Miami Dolphins 2021 draft class as a whole. With the chemistry he has with Tagovailoa, Waddle projects to be an instant and regular contributor on offense. There’s also the distinct possibility that he’ll take the role currently held by Jakeem Grant as a kick and punt returner. Training camp will reveal a lot about the role the coaches have in mind for the rookie.

1. Noah Igbinoghene – CB

The number one player to watch in training camp is none other than Noah Igbinoghene. Make no mistake, this young player out of Auburn is the Miami Dolphins insurance plan for Xavien Howard. Based on what the reports are, he’ll need to be ready sooner rather than later. Howard seems to be making it a point to express he feels underpaid and underappreciated. Depending on who you ask, he’s either right or wrong. I, personally, don’t agree with Howard.

Nevertheless, Igbinoghene was drafted because of the high ceiling he presents. He may have struggled in his rookie season, but that’s to be expected with young cornerbacks. There’s always a learning curve, which varies in difficulty depending on the position. Cornerback is one of the hardest positions to transition from college to the NFL, and Igbinoghene is still very, very young.

His development has ramifications beyond this season. If Igbinoghene develops and turns into the type of player that coach Flores believes he can be, then the Dolphins won’t need to break the bank all over again to pay Howard and keep their elite secondary. They can trade Howard, get a ton more draft capital, and still have their plan intact. If he doesn’t develop, then Miami faces a scenario where they’ll have a disgruntled Howard who will essentially be able to demand a blank check whenever he wants. Maybe if they pay him a second time, he’ll calm down, but there’s no guarantee of that.

A lot is riding on Igbinoghene taking a huge next step in his second season. It’s no wonder why everyone is watching with baited breath.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for seven years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung

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Observations from inside the MLB All-Star Game

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While the very concept of the All-Star Game may seem outdated, MLB clearly has the best of the four major sports.

It’s been six years since I last attended the MLB All-Star Game. It’s the type of event that takes a place like Cincinnati and turns it into a happening place. An argument could be made that the 2015 All-Star Game that featured their flamethrower of a closer mowing down three of the best hitters in the rival league and the Home Run Derby won by the hometown star was the biggest sporting event to happen in that city since the Reds winning the World Series in 1990 — the year I was born.

Most cities had plenty of time in advance to prepare for All-Star Week. Denver was tasked with putting the event together in the first week of the season and did an amazing job with it. Any market with a downtown ballpark is ideal for maximizing the event that is the All-Star Game. It would be interesting to see what Los Angeles does with it next year after missing out last year.

The crowd at Coors Field represent a comeback after a year that had us all hiding in homes and being away from each other due to a viral pandemic, a year where we all wondered when we will get to enjoy the game we love once again. It was more than a capacity crowd. Everyone was in their seats, and in the rooftop bar, and in the team store, and waiting in line for overpriced food.

It was a Coors Field sellout combined with a typical Marlins crowd. It felt like 2019 never ended.

The national anthem was a beautiful spectacle, starting with one of the stars of Hamilton singing and punctuating with a flyover and firework show.

The Colorado Rockies only had one representative in the game but they fans did get to see Nolan Arenado return to Coors Field as the starting third baseman for the National League after forcing a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals this past offseason after a divorce with the outgoing front office.

“Colorado deserves this,” Arenado said after being serenaded by the fans who knew him for ruling the hot corner for eight years.

Fireworks pierced the sky immediately after the words “play ball” were ushered by one very lucky kid.

We have been waiting for this moment for a long time.

The All-Star Game is meant to be an opportunity to see great moments from the game’s best, starting with Shohei Ohtani, who was the leadoff hitter and starting pitcher for the American League, the first ever to do so. There’s nobody in baseball who has had a better season like Ohtani, who is leading baseball in home runs with 33 while sporting a solid 3.49 ERA with 20 more strikeouts than innings pitched. A perfect inning and a couple at-bats and his day was done.

Perhaps the biggest moment of the game was Vlad Guerrero Jr. hitting a home run ball that nearly cleared the left field stands. He is one of three father-son duos to play in the All-Star Game.

“Dreams come true,” Guerrero Jr. said through a translator after the game. “Since I was a kid, I was thinking about this moment. I’ve worked all my life very hard and a lot of it is happening right now.”

The Miami Marlins, despite a season of struggles, should have had more than only one player in the game. However, Trevor Rogers was a good choice to rep the Marlins. The rookie leads all first-year players in ERA (2.31), innings (101 1/3) and strikeouts (122). He is certainly a shoo-in to win the National League Rookie of the Year.

“It’s something that we really dream of as a kid and growing up,” Rogers said, “here with the best guys in the world.”

While the game seemed like another lopsided American League victory, all anyone wants in a game like this is for the losing team to have a chance. It is even made all the more sweeter if your guy is the one to play the hero. 

That wasn’t the case for Marlins fans but if you were a Chicago Cubs fan, Kris Bryant was your guy. With the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth inning, Bryant hits a Matt Barnes fast ball to left field. It would’ve certainly been a game changer had it not been for a sliding catch by Jared Walsh to end the inning. 

In the end, a Japanese player started the game, an Australian closed it out and a Dominican won the MVP, all while representing the American League. Baseball is truly a global game. 

Dolphins Win Cardinals

Reasons to be Excited about Tua Tagovailoa’s Second Season

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Depending on who you talk to, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa either broke well past expectations for his rookie year, or he flopped harder than Jamarcus Russell did for the Raiders. So what can Dolphins fans expect in year 2? Will we see Tua take that leap and become an elite level QB in the league? Or will we see Tua descend into QB purgatory, and see the Dolphins back in the market? I believe Tua will rise to the challenge and become one of the top level QB’s in the league. 

 

  1. Tua’s Hip is Healthy

While Tua was in his final season of college at Alabama, he suffered a couple pretty serious injuries. He suffered a high-ankle sprain on October 19 against Tennessee. While that injury typically takes more than 6 weeks to heal properly, Tagovailoa was able to rehab and get back on the field in time to play his heart out in a home loss to LSU. The following week, the unthinkable happened. Tua, rolling left, got tackled awkwardly and dislocated his hip. 

In a bang-bang play, Tua suffered what’s become known as the Bo Jackson injury. After being rushed into surgery and having to be very tentative with his hip, Tua was expected to make a full recovery. But what exactly did this mean? 

As someone who has also suffered that dreadful injury, I can share that a full recovery is almost completely impossible with an injury like that. It takes about a year to fully recover from it, and Tua was trying to workout, throw, and run drills 5 months afterwards. We were already halfway through the NFL season, and Tua starting, by the time he should have been fully recovered from the injury. 

 When asked about his hip injury over 2 years ago, Tua said, “My hip feels ten times better than it did last year. I feel very confident coming into my second year”

Last offseason, Tua was trying to rehab a potentially life threatening injury while trying to dive into the playbook and get accustomed to NFL speed. This offseason, Tua has been able to focus more on getting a full grasp of the playbook and offensive schemes, developing chemistry with his receivers. 

 

2. Tua’s Got New Toys

Last season, the Dolphins offense ranked 20th in passing yards/game, and 15th in points/game (ESPN). Out of 32 teams, the Dolphins ranked below average, and just barely above average in two important areas when it comes to passing the ball. Now it’s a little hard to be stellar when your number 2 receiving option in Albert Wilson opts out due to COVID-19 and your deep threat in Jakeem Grant suffered so many drops and, unfortunately, was unable to remain on the field. So what did the Dolphins do to try to bolster their passing game this offseason? They went out and got Will Fuller and drafted Jaylen Waddle. 

Fuller, who was the deep threat option for Houston, ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine in 2016. He was also PFF’s 9th highest graded receiver during his 2020 breakout campaign. Through 11 games, he hauled in 53 passes for 879 yards and 8 TD’s. Fuller also caught 70.7% of his passes, which was the highest in the league last season. 

Jaylen Waddle on the other hand, was hauling in passes from a fellow first rounder at Tua’s old stomping grounds: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. 

Waddle was a highly sought after recruit who ended up deciding to join a stacked receiving corps at Alabama. As the 4th option during his freshman season, it was actually his most productive season at Alabama. Hauling in 45 catches for 848 yards and 7 TD’s, Waddle was able to find his numbers despite sitting behind 3 future first rounders. His sophomore campaign was also very productive, at 33 catches for 560 yards with 6 TD’s. Waddle was poised for his best season yet in 2020, with the top 2 options ahead of him heading to the NFL Draft, and posting 591 yards with 4 TD’s through 6 games, although he suffered a near season ending injury in a road game at Tennessee. Waddle fought his way back for the National Championship game though, and despite being hobbled by a clearly not fully ready ankle, Waddle was still a core peice to that Alabama offense. 

 

3. Tua’s Experienced 

Last offseason, Tua was a rookie, who was coming off a major career threatening injury, was trying to learn a playbook, dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and protocols, as well as trying to adjust to the speed of the NFL. All that, for Tua to still start by mid season and carry the Dolphins almost to a playoff berth. Now, Tua has experience with NFL defenses and real time game speed. He learned under Ryan Fitzpatrick, and was able to watch how to command a 4th quarter offense without having to deal with the fire storm that is the 4th quarter of a close game in the NFL.

It’s Time to Bet On (and In) Florida

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The state of Florida is at the center of the football universe. Not just because Tom Brady and the Tampa Buccaneers are defending Super Bowl Champions, or the Jacksonville Jaguars will be debuting their shiny new quarterback chosen with the first pick in the NFL Draft or the Miami Dolphins can be relevant for the first time in a generation. Not even the passionate fan base of their college football squads can match the hype surrounding this season. Florida is the belle of the “foot-ball” because legalized sports betting is coming. Ready, set, hike!

In May of this year, state lawmakers approved a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe allowing legalized sports gambling. This would include old school brick and mortar walk up windows at Seminole casinos and a digital component with servers being located on tribal land for on-line wagers. It is a potential windfall for the Sunshine State as the compact would net Florida $2.5 billion in the first five years of the deal from the Seminoles. The deal still needs federal approval and already has opponents.

The Seminoles can choose to work with up to three on-line gambling platforms as part of the compact but two major outlets: DraftKings and Fan Duel have funded a separate political committee, Florida Education Champions, to legalize sports betting in the entire state and not have to deal exclusively with the Seminoles. This would open the door to not just on-line betting, but wagering at sports venues, other casinos, racetracks, just about anywhere in the state. Imagine the potential of filling your gas tank and laying a bet on the game. They are hoping to have that on the November 2022 ballot.

According to this page here, we could see Florida legalizing sports betting later this year. While it likely won’t be launched in time for the start of the NFL season, at least Florida residents can start signing up online. Once the bill passes legislation, it won’t be long till sports betting officially launches.

So, in South Florida, it’s good time to start prepping for the Dolphins 2021 season.  The team rollercoastered to a 10-win season shattering their expected win total of six and finishing one win shy of a playoff appearance.  It’s Tua Tagovailoa’s team now with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Washington and Tua has plenty of weapons through the air with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki and rookie Jaylen Waddle.  I’m still not sold on the ground game something that could keep them from hitting this season’s over/under total of nine. The season features a tougher schedule for Miami with opponents from the NFC South (Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, Falcons) and AFC South (Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Texans). There are also games with the Raiders and Giants, and a short week Thursday night game against the Ravens, to go with the usual home-and-home sets with the Bills, Jets and Patriots.
Miami doesn’t get its first bye until after Week 13, so health could be a major factor, especially with the added 17th game this season.
I see a 9-8 finish, once again just short of the playoffs.

Whether it’s Dolphins, Buccaneers or Jaguars, what does all this mean  for sports investors in the third largest state in the U.S by population? Legalized sports gaming is coming, and it will be here if all goes to plan, for this football season. More two dozen states have some form of legalized sports gaming. Florida is in the Red Zone and nearly across the goal line. So the real question is: are you ready for some football?

 

You can follow all of Jim Rodriguez’s picks at @JRodShow on Twitter.

 

Dolphins schedule

5 Things to know about the 2021 Miami Dolphins.

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What to Look For, Three Weeks Prior to Training Camp…

#1- The Dolphins will continue to be a “Blitz Heavy” Defense in 2021.

With the addition of Jaelen Phillips, a much needed boost to the pass rush was had, and a narrative developed that Miami can now “use 4” to get to the QB. Blitzing would not be as necessary, and the numbers they bring could go down. Not So. In 2020, Miami brought 5 or more rushers at the 5th highest rate in the NFL, and used Cover 0 at the highest rate PFF.com has tracked in the last 5 years. Miami likes to play Cover 1, and like to dictate to the offense on 3rd down. That entails fronts that make the offense adjust pass protection, and thus, requires multiple rushers in as many gaps as possible. Jaelen Phillips should help with the overall pass rush win rate which was mid pack at 40% last season. Sending numbers on defense is not a Bug for Miami, it’s a feature.

#2- Miami is now an 11 personnel team on offense. (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB)

Miami drafted a WR at 6th overall. That alone coupled with what they have on the roster says they need to get as many of these guys on the field as possible, but it doesn’t stop there. The signing of Will Fuller allows for more natural alignments with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, etc. While Jaylen Waddle is the Slot threat, others can play alongside Fuller/Waddle in bunch formations, and force communication in the secondary. Getting speed on the field seems to be what the Dolphins were going for this offseason, and getting the defense to call switches will be a feature. While Waddle stretches the defense laterally, Fuller threatens vertically, Parker, Preston, etc., are free to negotiate routes they are best at running. Make no mistake, this unit was constructed to work in tandem, and thus, they must be on the field together.

#3- The “rebuild” is complete.

Miami tore down the roster, in it’s entirety in 2019, and has meticulously gone about filling every perceived hole on the roster. The Dolphins return 3 starters from 2019 to the 2021 team on offense (Jesse Davis, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki) and 4 on defense (Jerome Baker, Christian Wilkins, Eric Rowe, Xavien Howard). They have drafted, or signed, 15 starters for the 2021 team the last 2 offseasons. Most of these signings, represent longterm commitments from either, high Day 1, 2 draft picks, or significant free agent signings or trades. There is simply not as many holes to fill anymore. The Miami Dolphins window for a championship is now officially open.

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#4- The Miami Dolphins have high expectations.

On the gambling front, Miami is now favored in 9 of 17 games (was 10), and has an over/under win total that has reached 9.5 games. Both represent the highest numbers in near 20 years. Most analysts are picking the Dolphins to be a playoff team, and after nearly getting there last season, and winning 10 games, why not? Miami has also gotten praise for their offseason, from signing Will Fuller, to their latest draft class. Improvement is expected. Second year QB Tua Tagovailoa, has worked on his body, has had a complete offseason (no rehab) and is free of his obligations to rehabbing his Hip Injury from 2019. He should also be completely in tune with the playbook having immersed himself in it for an entire offseason. A big “jump” is expected from what by any measure was, a decent rookie year. 10 wins is not only a baseline for this team, but the minimum requirement.

#5- Miami might have the NFL’s most exciting team.

We know about the defense and it’s propensity to blitz, but the offense is now very different, and a far cry from it’s “ball control” tendencies in 2020. The Offense as constructed, is built to use combination routes to free up shot plays, and the acquisitions of Waddle/Fuller now open up the field laterally as well as vertically. Miami’s running game, should feature more outside zone, now boasting several RB’s that are very good at it (Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, Salvon Ahmed). The return game has players such as Jaylen Waddle, and Jakeem Grant (if he makes it) which are threats to take every kickoff or punt they receive for a touchdown. Simply put, the 2021 Miami Dolphins have a young roster, that is constructed on speed and the big play on offense, pass pressure and turnovers on defense.

Stats are Courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, ESPN.

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.