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Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at the opening night event for Super Bowl 54. (Craig Davis for Five Reasons Sports Network)

Goldie’s Week 4 NFL Picks: Lions Surprise, Chiefs Recover

Goldie:

All Time Record: 155-71          

Vs. Spread: 114-109

 

21-22 Season:  29-16                

Vs. Spread: 25-20

 

Week 3 Record : 11-4                 

Vs. Spread: 10-5

 

Guarantee All Time: 10-7       

21-22 Season: 1-2

 

Upset All Time: 11-5              

21-22 Season: 2-1

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff 

All Time: 21-2              

21-22 Season: 5-1       

Week 3: 2-0

 

Goldie’s Guarantee:

Cleveland Browns (2-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

Vegas Picks: CLE -2

Goldie’s Take: Browns Win 34-21

Cleveland is the real deal on both sides of the football this season, but especially on the defensive side. Their fierce pass rush landed 9 sacks last week and held the Bears to a total of 47 yards of offense. Vikings’ shaky O-Line is going to have a long day trying to contain Myles Garrett and the rest of that unit. Brownies win and cover on the road. 

I GUARANTEE IT!

 

Upset of the Week:

Detroit Lions (0-3) @ Chicago Bears (1-2)

Vegas Picks: CHI -2.5

Goldie’s Take: Lions Win 26-24

Although 0-3, this Lions team has almost exceeded expectations in some ways. In all three of their games played so far, they have shown admirable fight against teams that are simply much more talented than they are. On the other hand, Chicago got their head handed to them last week by Cleveland, posting a total of 47 offensive yards. It’s clear that Justin Fields is not ready to start yet, and Andy Dalton doesn’t seem to be the answer either. The Bears don’t have a Quarterback. So yes, give me the Lions to UPSET Chicago in a rare road divisional win for Detroit. 

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff’s Lock of the week: DAL -4.5

Carolina Panthers (3-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

Vegas Picks: DAL -4.5

Goldie’s Take: Cowboys win 33-27

At 21-2 all time against the spread, Jeffy is just getting more and more confident in his pick skills. That’s why this week he’s cooking up a 3 LOCK play! The first being the Cowboys -4.5. Jeffy loves what he’s seen from the ‘Boys this season, and he’s not buying the Panthers hype. He’s betting on the Cowboys to win and cover at home. If I’ve learned anything in the past few years doing picks with my Crazy Uncle Jeff, it’s to NEVER fade the Crazy Uncle. How ‘Bout Them Cowboys!

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff’s Lock of the Week: KC -7

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)

Vegas Picks: KC -7

Goldie’s Take: Chiefs WIn 31-17

The second of Jeffy’s THREE LOCKS this week is the Chiefs at -7. The fact that the Eagles and Chiefs are two teams with the same record, is quite the anomaly. Even with these teams at 1-2, most sportsbooks are still betting on the Chiefs with the best odds to win this year’s Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Eagles are currently in the midst of a rebuild. Crazy Uncle Jeff and I fully expect Mahomes to shine as KC puts on a show in Philly. 

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff’s Lock of the Week: TB -7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) @ New England Patriots (1-2)

Vegas Picks: TB -7

Goldie’s Take: Bucs Win 33-20

Emotions will be at an all time high in Brady’s return to the stadium that he called home for 20 years. Surely Belichick will be doing everything he can to win this one, but he just doesn’t have the pieces.It’s a statement game for both Brady and Belichick; a battle that is destined to fuel the debate between who is really responsible in New England’s for the notorious past successful legacy. Originally I had a feeling Brady would be so overwhelmed with emotion that it might affect his game, but then I remembered who I was talking about. GOAT takes care of business on an emotional Sunday night in Foxboro. Speaking of GOATs, Uncle Jeff is picking the Bucs too in his THIRD LOCK of this week

 

Tennessee Titans (2-1) @ New York Jets (0-3)

Vegas Picks: TEN -7

Goldie’s Take: Titans Win 23-10

It’s already been a tough season for Jets fans, as their team has posted a total of 20 points through 3 games, and it only looks like it’s going to get tougher. Zach Wilson has not been able to get it going, but what do you expect when you throw a rookie QB onto an offense with limited weapons and an iffy O-Line? Also it’s not like they have the best defense in the world either. The Titans will take care of business in New York as the Jets continue to be knee-deep in this rebuild. 

 

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2)

Vegas Picks: MIA -2

Goldie’s Take: Dolphins Win 27-21

Both of these squads are desperate for a win after subpar starts to each of their seasons. Miami lost an overtime heartbreaker in Vegas last week, and the Colts just can’t seem to figure it out. Indy has had a laundry list of significant injuries, and it’s only week 3. Like most Dolphins wins, I expect this game to mostly be controlled by the defense. Also, Brissett looked much more comfortable last week after having a full week of first team reps. Another week of Brissett as QB1 in practice will give their offense some much needed continuity. Expect the Fins to get back on track with a win at home this Sunday. 

 

Washington Football Team (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Vegas Picks: WAS -1.5

Goldie’s Take: Falcons Win 24-21

Atlanta stole a road victory last week against the Giants 17-14. Rare for Atlanta to have such a low scoring win, but it seems their defense definitely improved a bit from last season to now. Also this is a favorable matchup for Atlanta, as the No Names don’t exactly have a high powered offense. Give me Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds to get another defensive win to get back to .500. Venue call!

 

Houston Texans (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1)

Vegas Picks: BUF -16.5

Goldie’s Take: Bills Win 35-20

Vegas is not sugarcoating this one at all. Almost everyone expects Buffalo to stay hot and run right through the Texans. This should certainly be the case, however I’d advise staying away from betting this one. 16.5 points is just too unpredictable. Josh Allen and the Bills “circle the wagons” once again at home this Sunday to improve to 3-1. 

 

New York Giants (0-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-1)

Vegas Picks: NO -7.5

Goldie’s Take: Saints Win 30-20

This one was a strong contender for the Guarantee committee, as the Saints play their first game back with a full Superdome in over a year. Not only do I think the Saints are the better team, I would’ve made this pick on atmosphere alone. Daniel Jones isn’t going to be able to hear his own thoughts in the building that the city of New Orleans considers to be its heart and soul. Saints win in the dome!

 

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

Vegas Picks: SAN -3

Goldie’s Take: 49ers Win 28-23

The UPSET of the week committee took a long gander at this one after the Niners loss to the Packers last week. However, after extensive research we’ve concluded that the Seahawks pass defense is going to be the death of them again. Last week Kirk Cousins had a field day with this Seattle defense, largely due to the fact that the ‘Hawks pass rush was nonexistent. They only managed to sack Cousins one time. The Niners have a better O-Line than the Vikings do, so expect Jimmy G to have plenty of time to make decisions back there. Niners win a close divisional matchup at home. 

 

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

Vegas Picks: LAR -4.5

Goldie’s Take: Rams Win 35-31

You could legitimately argue that the Rams have both the best offense and the best defense in the NFL. They have playmakers on both sides of the ball, and a great coaching staff to complement them. The Rams are a machine. Kyler will keep the ‘Cards in it, but give me LA to get the divisional win at home and improve to 4-0!

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1)

Vegas Picks: GB -6.5

Goldie’s Take: Packers Win 35-13

Guarantee committee took a hard look at this one as well before ultimately settling on the Browns. The Packers seem to be back after that strange week one beatdown they received, and the Steelers don’t have a quarterback. Big Ben’s arm is shot, and they’re still asking him to throw 50+ times a game. This is not a recipe for success. Unless the Steelers get a new quarterback, I don’t see them winning more than 5 games this season. Packers win in a rout!

 

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Denver Broncos (3-0)

Vegas Picks: DEN -1

Goldie’s Take: Ravens Win 32-28

Although undefeated, the Denver Broncos are a bit of fools gold 3-0. Their opponents thus far have a combined record of 0-9 so we can’t really consider the Broncos to be “legit” quite yet. I expect the Broncos to finally be exposed this week. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a major step up from the competition that the Broncos have faced in the past few weeks. Denver is a solid team with a lot of promise, but they’re not quite contenders yet. Baltimore stays hot with a road win in the Mile High. 

 

Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

Vegas Picks: LAC -3.5

Goldie’s Take: Chargers Win 30-27

Nothing like a good divisional matchup on MNF. Both of these teams have to be thrilled with the way their seasons have started. Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since 2002, and Chargers are coming off a huge upset of the Chiefs. This one is basically a pick ’em’ in my mind, so I’m going with the home team. Chargers in a venue call!

 

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Odds to consider for Super Bowl LV: Chiefs vs. Bucs

It was a wild and bumpy ride on the COVID bus to get here, but now we are just a few days away from the big game.

 

Super Bowl LV has the young, explosive offense – and great RZ defense– of the Kansas City Chiefs playing an actual away game against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

I mean, what are the odds that the team from the hosting city actually makes it to the Super Bowl? I don’t know the formula to work out the specific probability, but it has to be akin to winning the lottery– because it has never, in the history of the NFL, happened before the 2020-2021 season.

 

Speaking of odds, let’s look at the odds for the main Super Bowl LV betting markets just keep in mind that there could be changes on lines during the week, keep yourself updated

Kansas City Chiefs Versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds

 

The point spread has held steady at -3, in favor of the KC Chiefs. You can find the Total at 56.5 at most betting outlets. The money line shows the Buccaneers as +150 dogs (Chiefs -168 @ Bookmaker).

 

I actually really like the Buccaneers on the money line to win. Yes, the Chiefs are a better team, but the Buccs have beaten the odds already this season by becoming the first team in history to play in the Super Bowl that they are hosting. On top of that, there is the Tom Brady factor

 

Then there is this to consider: since 2002, the underdog has won the Super Bowl 13 times to the favorite winning just six times. That means the dog wins nearly 70 percent of the time (68.42). The favorite has won two years straight, which is the most we’ve seen since 1995 when the Favs won four in a row between 1992 and 1995. So, I’m all over Tom Brady and the Buccs as dogs in this fight.

 

On top of aloof this, including the whole beating the odds as the hosting team thing, the Buccaneers are literally playing as the home team. This is a significant advantage, even without a real crowd in the stands. The Buccaneers get to sleep in their own beds, practice using their own facilities, and don’t have to travel at all. This is a massive boon for Tampa Bay.

 

When we get into the power ratings, some indexes have the Buccaneers rated a full point higher than the Chiefs. ESPN’s FPI lists the Chiefs at 9.4 to the Buccanneers’ 8.7. Now, because of the COVID factor, we are not going to give a full 2.5 points to Tampa Bay. But, home advantage is still easily worth a point and some change. So, no matter how you slice it, the Buccaneers come out on top of the power ratings.

Super Bowl Props for Consideration

Most Penalties in Game by Type:

 

  • Holding +275
  • False Start +280
  • Offsides/Neutral Zone/Encroachment +425
  • Any Other +500
  • Pass Interference +600
  • Illegal Block +700
  • Delay of Game +1400
  • No Penalty in Game+10000

 

I love holding at +275 because both teams’ offenses will get a couple, plus we could see both defensive units put a couple more on the boards. Pass interference is a good option as well because I believe they are absolutely not going to ‘just let them play’. The zebra jerks will be throwing flags left and right to avoid any ‘no-call’ debacles. 

 

False start is a common penalty, but since it only has each offense going for it, I think taking a slice of holding with a side of pass interference, which or not mutually exclusive to offense or defense. 

 

I also took OVER 10 penalties in the game at the sweet, sweet price of +125. This total seems low to me because the average combined penalties per game in 2020 was13.65. 

 

You could always throw down a few bucks on those favored Super Bowl props like, who’ll win the coin toss, what color will Mahomes headband be, how long will the national anthem last, who will the MVP shout out to first: God, team, mom, etc. But these are all just flips of the proverbial coin, except for betting the coin toss … it’s a literal flip of the coin.

Super Bowl Primer: GOAT vs. Successor

It’s not too much of a surprise that the best quarterback to ever play is making his 10th Super Bowl appearance this year. Tom Brady is ready to go to the Super Bowl again, except this year, he is with a different team.

It’s also not that much of a surprise that the next face of the NFL also made the super bowl for a second year straight. Patrick Mahomes is one of the flashiest quarterbacks in the NFL, making no-look passes left and right in style.

Tom Brady has easily made himself the best player to ever play football, at least in my opinion. Before this season, people made the argument that Brady only made Super Bowls due to Bill Belichick, but now that Brady made a Super Bowl under a different head coach, he has proven he is much more than a system quarterback.

I also think that out of any person in the National Football League, Patrick Mahomes is the only player who can become the next Tom Brady. Mahomes has already proven that he is an amazing quarterback, and he can bring a team to Super Bowls year after year.

Let’s get into what everyone wants to know.

Who’s going to win the Super Bowl, 43 year old Brady, or 25 year old Mahomes?

While the Buccaneers are a more balanced team, I still think the Chiefs are going to win. The Chiefs offense is unstoppable. Tyreek Hill can outrun any player in the NFL, Travis Kelce is the most dominant Tight End, and Patrick Mahomes is a top talent. Along with their explosive offense, their defense makes big plays when they’re needed.

The Buccaneers have a star-studded offense between Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski. They also have an amazing defense from Shaq Barrett to Lavonte David to Devin White.

Even though the Buccaneers have the more balanced team overall, I really can’t see the Chiefs offense being stopped in this Super Bowl, considering they beat the best defense in the NFL in last year’s super bowl against the 49ers.

No matter who wins, this should go down as one the best Super Bowls in NFL History.

Five Reasons Sports Super Bowl LIV Predictions

We know everything.

But we know nothing.

Here are some of the predictions from the Five Reasons Sports Network team, for Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium.

Most of us like the Chiefs, and Andy Reid.

Want to bet against us?

Go to BetDSI.com and use the promo code FIVE101

(Follow @EthanJSkolnick, @CraigDavisRuns, @CKParrot and @5ReasonsSports for coverage from the scene).

….

David Friedman SF 30 KC 23

Jake Elman KC 27 SF 17

Ethan Skolnick KC 34 SF 24

Austin Robilliard KC 30 SF 23

David Hondal KC 31 SF 21

Josh Houtz KC 31 SF 27

David Eversole KC 28 SF 24

Luis Sung KC 34 SF 20

Eddie Santana SF 24 KC 14

Alfredo Arteaga KC 27 SF 24

Paul Austria KC 31 SF 23

Michael Sonbeek KC 41 SF 38

Craig Davis SF 34 KC 27

Danny Jaillet SF 31 KC 24

Chris Kouffman KC 28 SF 25

Jazz Santana KC 34 SF 29…