Odds to consider for Super Bowl LV: Chiefs vs. Bucs

It was a wild and bumpy ride on the COVID bus to get here, but now we are just a few days away from the big game.

 

Super Bowl LV has the young, explosive offense – and great RZ defense– of the Kansas City Chiefs playing an actual away game against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

I mean, what are the odds that the team from the hosting city actually makes it to the Super Bowl? I don’t know the formula to work out the specific probability, but it has to be akin to winning the lottery– because it has never, in the history of the NFL, happened before the 2020-2021 season.

 

Speaking of odds, let’s look at the odds for the main Super Bowl LV betting markets just keep in mind that there could be changes on lines during the week, keep yourself updated

Kansas City Chiefs Versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds

 

The point spread has held steady at -3, in favor of the KC Chiefs. You can find the Total at 56.5 at most betting outlets. The money line shows the Buccaneers as +150 dogs (Chiefs -168 @ Bookmaker).

 

I actually really like the Buccaneers on the money line to win. Yes, the Chiefs are a better team, but the Buccs have beaten the odds already this season by becoming the first team in history to play in the Super Bowl that they are hosting. On top of that, there is the Tom Brady factor

 

Then there is this to consider: since 2002, the underdog has won the Super Bowl 13 times to the favorite winning just six times. That means the dog wins nearly 70 percent of the time (68.42). The favorite has won two years straight, which is the most we’ve seen since 1995 when the Favs won four in a row between 1992 and 1995. So, I’m all over Tom Brady and the Buccs as dogs in this fight.

 

On top of aloof this, including the whole beating the odds as the hosting team thing, the Buccaneers are literally playing as the home team. This is a significant advantage, even without a real crowd in the stands. The Buccaneers get to sleep in their own beds, practice using their own facilities, and don’t have to travel at all. This is a massive boon for Tampa Bay.

 


When we get into the power ratings, some indexes have the Buccaneers rated a full point higher than the Chiefs. ESPN’s FPI lists the Chiefs at 9.4 to the Buccanneers’ 8.7. Now, because of the COVID factor, we are not going to give a full 2.5 points to Tampa Bay. But, home advantage is still easily worth a point and some change. So, no matter how you slice it, the Buccaneers come out on top of the power ratings.

Super Bowl Props for Consideration

Most Penalties in Game by Type:

 

  • Holding +275
  • False Start +280
  • Offsides/Neutral Zone/Encroachment +425
  • Any Other +500
  • Pass Interference +600
  • Illegal Block +700
  • Delay of Game +1400
  • No Penalty in Game+10000

 

I love holding at +275 because both teams’ offenses will get a couple, plus we could see both defensive units put a couple more on the boards. Pass interference is a good option as well because I believe they are absolutely not going to ‘just let them play’. The zebra jerks will be throwing flags left and right to avoid any ‘no-call’ debacles. 

 

False start is a common penalty, but since it only has each offense going for it, I think taking a slice of holding with a side of pass interference, which or not mutually exclusive to offense or defense. 

 

I also took OVER 10 penalties in the game at the sweet, sweet price of +125. This total seems low to me because the average combined penalties per game in 2020 was13.65. 

 

You could always throw down a few bucks on those favored Super Bowl props like, who’ll win the coin toss, what color will Mahomes headband be, how long will the national anthem last, who will the MVP shout out to first: God, team, mom, etc. But these are all just flips of the proverbial coin, except for betting the coin toss … it’s a literal flip of the coin.

0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.