Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Cleveland

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The Miami Heat lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers once again, and it was in similar fashion. Short-handed, some offensive issues, and top player struggles.

So let’s hop right into some takeaways from this one…

#1: PJ Tucker with the early impact.

Last game against Chicago, PJ Tucker finished the game with 8 points on 3 of 7 shooting, while going 2 for 4 from three. What was Tucker’s stat-line 6 minutes into this game tonight? You guessed it: 8 points on 3 of 7 shooting, while going 2 for 4 from deep. That may seem like a positive thing individually, but it’s also not the greatest indication for the team. When a guys highest attempts in a game is 10 so far this season, 7 in the first few minutes usually means somethings wrong. We saw things breakdown later, but Tucker was that steady rock that kept them going. Some great box-outs, timely boards early, and that coveted corner triple. Being a number one option on a night like this is something nobody could’ve expected coming into the season.

#2: Tyler Herro’s one struggling defensive adjustment this season.

Tyler Herro hasn’t had many down games so far this season, but the one single time I’ve seen him rattled was that home match-up with Cleveland back in Miami. To begin his NBA career, drop coverage was the only thing he could truly pick apart, but he’s expanded upon that this year. He has counters for switches, counters for blitzes, but the one thing he hasn’t shown a comfortable counter for is length. Guys like Lauri Markkanen blanketing him on the perimeter, basically daring him to drive into a funneled death trap of more bigs. If he continues to navigate the outside, his main release valve for separation can’t be gotten to. His high release point is his way around tight defense, but it’s impossible to rely on that against three 7 footers. Spo drew up a decent game-plan for him with higher screening and more room to operate, but things were still a bit odd.

#3: Dewayne Dedmon is not Bam Adebayo, so he shouldn’t be used as such.

With the usage of Cleveland’s bigs, it was clearly a rough time for Dewayne Dedmon. He can handle his own against guys like that, but he’s much better as the complementary piece with match-ups like this, who can be used as an altered body for Bam Adebayo. But tonight, he’s it. Gabe Vincent actually made some nice plays by tying up the big in the post, but ultimately that doubling can only get you so far, as I said on Twitter in the second quarter. Shortly after, the Cavs found the open areas to attack. On the other side of the ball, Dedmon has been great in his simple offensive role, but when the offense is at its absolute worst, is when Dedmon is being used like Bam. News flash: that should never happen. Having him on the wing for hand-offs three straight possessions won’t cut it. He’s capable in spurts, but the over-reliance can hurt them against teams like this.

#4: Duncan Robinson the ball-handler?

This wasn’t the greatest shooting night from Duncan Robinson, but the difference with tonight is he actually fought through to still make an impact offensively. Like I said after last game, he let the two-point shot dictate the three instead of vice versa. Now tonight, he stuck to a game-plan no matter the shots falling or not. Something that was seen out the gate with him was that when he put the ball on the floor to drive, good things happened. It wasn’t just the flashy behind the back passes to Dedmon down low. It was just his comfort levels being through the roof. He wasn’t rushing as a passer, he wasn’t rushing as a dribbler. He was just making the right reads with guys on his hip. And that’s what can counter his poor shooting some nights. Yet, many times it’ll still lead to losses like this.

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#5: An obvious takeaway, but tonight’s issue falls into the Jimmy Butler column.

Evaluating the team stats throughout the night, it felt like it never aligned to the score. Miami and Cleveland stayed neck and neck in field goals, field goals attempted, threes, threes attempted, etc. The one stat that wasn’t close all night was free throw attempts, and more importantly, free throws made. Not making the limited free throws that were provided is weird in itself. But ultimately, it isn’t a surprise that occurred, since it’s just what comes with the personnel they had. There wasn’t one guy in Miami’s rotation tonight that was somebody who can reliably draw fouls, other than Kyle Lowry who hasn’t done that very exclusively this season. I wouldn’t say it is an issue due to it not being expected anyway, but that was the difference maker tonight in terms of statistics.

 

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Could Bam Adebayo End Up Returning to an Altered Defensive Scheme?

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We’ve been seeing a recent Heat trend on the defensive end. One that has translated to wins against top tier Eastern Conference talent.

The reason for the abrupt change. Well, just look back to December 1st at 3 pm when it was reported that Bam Adebayo would be out for the next 4 to 6 weeks with a torn UCL in his right thumb.

That one report caused an immediate schematic shift on the defensive side of the ball, as Miami not only lost their versatile defensive base, but a league candidate for defensive player of the year.

Up to that point, the Heat were known for their strong ability to switch. And at times, maybe even a little bit too much. A screen comes as a pick and roll is run between the point guard and center, while Adebayo finds himself locking up the opposing teams ball-handler, and the ball is simultaneously making its way around the perimeter and into the hands of a big with a guard on his back.

That description is looking at things through a microscope, since although that was the case many possessions, good things came out of it as well. But the key to it working usually meant a healthy roster had to be surrounding him. Guys like Jimmy Butler and PJ Tucker had to be out there to make it fully effective, which leads to all indications pointing toward a playoff style mentality.

Fast forward to this point in time without Adebayo, the Heat are peaking on the defensive side of the ball, essentially without their two best defenders. How is that happening?

Well, for obvious reasons due to personnel, they’ve gone away from that total switching for most of the game.

Zone defenses were seen more and more in the beginning of the December, but even that has been aborted over this past week. It’s simple: it is just straight man on man, while mixing up drop coverage and blitzing when a true big man, like Dewayne Dedmon or Omer Yurtseven, are on the floor.

 

This play-style means that you’re able to dictate where the ball goes, instead of the offense dictating things as the slower big is planted in that drop coverage down low. As seen above, Yurtseven blitzes out, two passes are made before it finds the rolling big, and Yurtseven is there to blanket Tony Bradley in the post.

The most important part about going this route is the much easier spot you’re putting guys like Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson in. You may think covering the ground of two guys is harder than straight up switching, but it quickly becomes muscle memory to tag and recover.

And frankly, many of the “weaker” defenders on the roster are positionally sound, which caters to this style of play.

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Now, with all of that said, will these strong bases just get thrown out the window once Adebayo returns from injury in the near future?

I don’t believe so.

In my opinion, to maximize the switching on a team that’ll eventually run a lineup of Lowry-Oladipo-Butler-Tucker-Adebayo, it must be the complement instead of the only go-to in high leverage situations.

A perfect example is what we’ve seen as of late with the players available. Miami runs a bunch of drop to begin the game with Dedmon, quickly shifts to some zone as the bench guards enter, and ultimately land right back in switching when the Okpala-Tucker front-court pairing gets some extended run.

That’s the formula with a healthy roster.

Bam Adebayo isn’t just a good defender because he can lock up your favorite player on the perimeter. He’s actually in defensive player of the year conversations because he can read things on that end of the floor at an advanced speed, while he finally has a guy by his side to call them out for others, in PJ Tucker.

If you want to see Adebayo swarm offensive talents from a night to night basis, never let them get comfortable with a single defensive structure. You can still allow Bam to switch, but don’t restrict him from those blitzes that we saw above, who can recover at double the speed Dedmon or Yurtseven can.

These options that I’m discussing are the exact reason this Heat team is in a much better spot in the big picture this season than last year. That team didn’t have options. Even when looking at the Bucks playoff match-up, they didn’t even have more than 1 Giannis Antetokounmpo defender, and that guy was Bam.

Now, this team is an advanced version of the bubble team on the defensive end. They have bodies to throw at star players like Antetokounmpo or Durant, they have increased perimeter defensive talent, and most importantly as I stated before, they have added defensive weapons for Coach Erik Spoelstra to utilize within the scheme.

Change is coming.

Adebayo going down sounded like the worst news in the world for the Heat when you first heard it. But it may turn into a guy who gets added rest for a two month period with that knee that’s been bothering him, and gives Miami some added clarity on that side of the ball.

The defensive player of the year award may be out the equation by now, but Adebayo is eyeing something much bigger.

 

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Goldie’s Best Bets Week 14: The ‘Boys, the Bucs and the Pack

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Goldie:

All Time Record: 234-125-1          

Vs. Spread: 175-184-1

 

21-22 Season:  108-70-1               

Vs. Spread: 86-95-1

 

Week 13 Record: 8-5                

Vs. Spread: 8-5

 

Upset Record: 14-12              

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff 

All Time: 32-10              

21-22 Season: 16-9       

Week 13: 1-0

 

Goldie’s Guarantee AND UPSET of the Week

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-7)

Vegas Picks: CAR -2.5

Goldie’s Take: Falcons Win 27-24

Carolina was embarrassed in Miami before their bye week. Cam, and the whole Panthers offense, looked helpless against the tough Miami D. Now, Atlanta doesn’t pose nearly the same threat that Miami’s defense does, but still my faith in Cam Newton is at an all time low. Also Carolina’s offense has never been able to function without a healthy Christian McCaffrey. CMC is out for the season, as things go from bad to worse for Carolina. Trusting veteran savvy of Matt Ryan to outduel Cam in this battle of 5-7’s. UPSET!

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff’s Lock of the Week: DAL -4

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) @ Washington Football Team (6-6)

Vegas Picks: DAL -4

Goldie’s Take: Cowboys Win 34-28

Jeffy has begun to hit his stride a bit, hitting his last three locks. He loves the Cowboys to take firm control of the NFC East in this one. However, it is worth noting that the No Names have won four in a row. Still, the high powered Dallas offense should be too much for Heinicke and Washington to keep up. Cowboys get a big win in the nation’s capital.

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff’s Lock of the Week: NO -5

New Orleans Saints (5-7) @ New York Jets (3-9)

Vegas Picks: NO -5

Goldie’s Take: Saints Win 24-16

Jeffy’s second of two locks this week has the Saints dismantling the lowly Jets. Taysom Hill is coming off a tough 4 INT performance last week, but the perfect remedy for that is to go up against the Jets’ league-worst defense. The Saints have really struggled since losing Jameis Winston to a season ending injury, but a trip to NJ to face the Jets is exactly what Sean Payton and his team needs to get back on track. Although on the outside looking in, N’awlins is somehow still very much alive in the race for the final NFC WIld Card spot. Extra motivation for NO, while New York has already started looking towards the draft. 

 

Rest of Week 14:

 

Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)

Vegas Picks: KC -9.5

Goldie’s Take: Chiefs Win 30-20

These teams are trending in vastly different directions right now. KC has quietly won five in a row, while the Raiders have lost four of their last five. Also LV’s offense takes a major hit this weekend, as pass catching TE Darren Waller will be out with a knee injury. Chiefs stay hot with a home win at Arrowhead.

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (6-6)

Vegas Picks: CLE -2.5

Goldie’s Take: Browns Win 21-20

One of the toughest picks of the week by far. Teetered back and forth for awhile before ultimately settling on the Browns for a couple of reasons. First, Cleveland has spent basically a month preparing to beat the Baltimore Ravens. Weird scheduling glitch had Browns play the Ravens, then go on a bye, just to play the Ravens again after the bye. Also, Cleveland will have both halves of their star RB duo healthy for this matchup. Recipe for success for Cleveland in this one is to ground and pound all day long, thus keeping Lamar Jackson off of the field. Expect a low scoring, defensive ballgame, but give me the Browns to take care of business in the DAWG POUND

 

Seattle Seahawks (4-8) @ Houston Texans (2-10)

Vegas Picks: SEA -7.5

Goldie’s Take: Seahawks Win 28-20

Seattle finally got back on track with a win against division rival San Francisco last week. Now Seattle looks to get their first winning streak of the year as they head to Houston. Texans will be starting Davis Mills at QB this Sunday, who went 0-6 in relief of Taylor earlier this season. It honestly doesn’t matter who’s at QB for Houston. The Texans are a mess. Somehow, Seahawks keep their playoff hopes alive with a win in Houston. 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) @ Tennessee Titans (8-4)

Vegas Picks: TEN -8.5

Goldie’s Take: Titans Win 24-13

Titans finally really felt the effects of losing Derrick Henry and AJ Brown two weeks ago, getting destroyed by the Patriots. Good news for Tennessee is that they had a bye week following that horrid loss, and now face one of the league’s bottom five teams. Also Julio Jones is set to make his return from an injury that has kept him sidelined since week 9. Titans get back on track and cruise to a home victory. 

 

New York Giants (4-8) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)

Vegas Picks: LAC -10.5

Goldie’s Take: Chargers Win 30-14

Lucky for the Giants, Mike Glennon cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play this Sunday in LA. This means New York won’t have to turn to 3rd stringer Jake Fromm. However, this still doesn’t boost the Giants offense all that much. They’ve struggled offensively all season no matter who’s at quarterback. Plus the Chargers enter this one with a bit of momentum after picking apart the Bengals last week. Chargers build on that momentum with a big win at home

 

Detroit Lions (1-10-1) @ Denver Broncos (6-6)

Vegas Picks: DEN -10.5

Goldie’s Take: Broncos Win 23-17

The Lions finally got a win last week, ruling out any team going winless this season. Now they’re faced with traveling to Denver to face the Broncos. Denver had a tough loss last week at the hands of division rival KC, despite having 137 more yards and seven more minutes of possession. Strange loss for Denver. Nonetheless, expect the Broncos to stay right in the thick of the AFC playoff race with a home win against one of the league’s bottomfeeders. 

 

San Francisco 49ers (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)

Vegas Picks: SF -1.5

Goldie’s Take: 49ers Win 27-26

The Bengals last four games have been quite the roller coaster. They’re 2-2 in those four games, however the average margin of victory has been 23.5 points. Cincy has been wildly inconsistent this season, as you never know which Bengals team is going to show up. On the other hand, San Fran is looking to avenge that loss they took at the hands of Seattle last week. Can’t trust Cincy, looking for a Niners bounce back win this weekend.  

 

Buffalo Bills (7-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)

Vegas Picks: TB -3

Goldie’s Take: Buccaneers Win 28-24

The Bills aren’t as high and mighty as we once thought. They’ve very much cooled down since their 5-2 start, going 2-3 in the following five games. They lost last week against the coaching GOAT, and now they have to go on the road to face the quarterback GOAT? Goodluck with that, but I’m taking the home team in this one. Brady has owned Buffalo for about 20 years, (32-3 versus Buffalo in Tom’s career) and I don’t see that trend changing this Sunday. 

 

Chicago Bears (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Vegas Picks: GB -12.5

Goldie’s Take: Packers Win 31-16

Speaking of quarterbacks who own opposing team’s cities, Aaron Rodgers faces off against the Chicago Bears this weekend. Aaron is on a 10-1 run against Chicago, and adding a little interest to this one by shouting “I OWN YOU” to Chicago’s crowd the last time these teams met. This time it’s in Green Bay and on primetime. The perfect stage for Rodgers to continue to prove why he’s still one of the best QBs in the game. Justin Fields is back for Chicago, but is that a good thing? Packers steamroll the Bears in Lambeau this Sunday night. 

 

Los Angeles Rams (8-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (10-2)

Vegas Picks: ARI -2.5

Goldie’s Take: Rams Win 30-27

Rams with a lot more to prove in this one as these teams face off on Monday Night. LA still has aspirations to win the NFC West, and can only attain that by winning this game. Also, it’s worth noting that Cards have been on a 2-7 skid in their past nine Primetime appearances. Expecting a big performance from Rams defensive stars. Aaron Donald and Von Miller will give Zona’s O-line a tough time, and their secondary should hold strong with Jalen Ramsey back there. Stafford to Kupp has been money all season, and should be enough to get the Rams the big UPSET on Monday night. 

 

Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Bulls

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The Miami Heat faced the Chicago Bulls on Saturday night, and it was a pretty different game than the last one. No Jimmy Butler, no Bam Adebayo, no DeMar DeRozan.

Yet, Miami came away with a win due to a bunch of guys stepping up yet again.

So, here are some takeaways from this big win…

#1: Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry coming out in a different manner.

The first takeaway on many of my post-game pieces this season have been on Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. But not usually in a positive way, especially with both of them on the same night. Robinson missed his first shot of the night, then didn’t look back. Pump fake, one dribble, pull-up mid-range was his first bucket of the night, and it triggered a three-point shooting parade shortly after. That’s the formula. Lowry also came out shooting the ball well, but his passing stood out even more. 12 first half assists pretty much sums up that entire point. When he’s playing with his natural flow and assertiveness, that age of his fades away quickly. These two guys have been trying to find a rhythm next to each other, and both of them enhancing their biggest skill is the way to do that.

#2: An offensive tweak without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

Mid-post touches every single play down was the nightly occurrence when Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and even Markieff Morris was in the lineup. But without them, the offensive purpose has looked rough. Spamming perimeter movement, hand-offs, and normal pick and rolls. But over the last two games, Miami’s found an outlet. Instead of the mid-post with those guys I named, they’re using PJ Tucker and Lowry on the wing three in similar post position. It gives Lowry spacing to score, while also providing more room to play-make in a smaller guys body. Tucker is a threat to run a hand-off or set a quick screen, while also giving guys their spotting on the floor on the weak-side. Mid-post insertions was the team’s base, but they’re finally reviving an offensive home to get back to.

#3: Dewayne Dedmon looking like much more than a valued role player.

Dewayne Dedmon has deserved a ton of credit over this last stretch. When Bam Adebayo went down originally, I think everybody’s mind went to the same place: the back-up big minutes. The reason is that Dedmon is so solid that nobody questions his production, and he’s upheld that point. Night in and night out, he plays his consistent game of screening, rolling, and offensive rebounding. Tonight, though, he wasn’t afraid to show off that three-ball a bit more as well. He buried two shots from deep in the first half, while presenting the Heat with a great spark after Robinson and Lowry went off the floor. He’s the ultimate role player in this league, but his game can be expanded upon when needed in games like this. Many players with his build withhold restrictions, but he truly doesn’t in many ways. He’s a drop big who isn’t the quickest, but can blitz you all night with that recovering scheme. He’s versatile. Not on the floor, but in the lineup from game to game.

#4: KZ Okpala becoming a usable piece on nights like this?

We know what KZ Okpala is as an NBA player so far. Some restrictions offensively, tons of talent defensively, but an overall discomfort on both sides whenever he’s thrown in there. Over the last two games, things have been different though. The biggest difference, in my opinion, isn’t just Okpala doing anything insanely different, but instead who he’s lining up next to. I’m not so sure Erik Spoelstra would put a ton of trust into him on a regular basis, but next to PJ Tucker, the trust is undoubtedly there. Okpala and Tucker can interchange the big man match-up no matter who they’re facing, while the other is slowly edging down to rely on rotations. Hence, the struggling Nikola Vucevic tonight. If Okpala can continually be this playable this season, they can definitely use him with so many guys down.

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#5: This is a big win…for many reasons.

Let me start by reiterating that Duncan Robinson needed this game. A home night explosion on the offensive end, while showcasing mental strength over physical strength. But as a team, the importance shines even more. This past Monday, Jimmy Butler returned and went out in the same game, leaving many predicting a gloomy stretch of games ahead. The reigning champ Milwaukee Bucks as the current 3 seed were up next, while the 2 seed Chicago Bulls quickly followed. Without Butler and Adebayo, that basically screamed 0-2. But well, Miami flipped that into a 2-0 stretch through hard overall play, and now we’re heading into another game on Monday to complete a 7 day stretch without Butler. Who knows if he will come back then, but either way, Miami has survived a stretch that didn’t seem possible. And after the 15th of December, things will get real easy for Miami up until New Years.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over the Bucks

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Well, talk about entertaining.

The Miami Heat faced off against the reigning champ Milwaukee Bucks without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, and pulled off a win led by their two-way star Caleb Martin.

So, let’s dive into what happened a bit…

#1: Caleb Martin coming out with some fire, literally.

Caleb Martin entered the starting lineup for the injured Jimmy Butler, which came as a surprise to some due to the recent formula of inserting Tyler Herro. It made sense due to the idea of actually obtaining a Khris Middleton defender in this one, but that was the least of his worries. The offensive stuff took over instead. He actually got in a bit of a skurmish with Bobby Portis on the floor in the second, leading to some more fire in his eyes. He came down with a power block at the rim on Portis shortly after, while yelling in a similar way Portis did all night. Then some more 3’s rained down, as Martin shushed in the direction of Portis. This performance from him was much more than a back forth with Portis, though. This was yet another showing of a rotational player in this league. Not a two-way.

#2: Miami finding the holes in Milwaukee’s defense early, which is hard to do without the premier guys.

On a positive note, the Heat held their own early due to the defensive presence on the floor, but the offense was sustained throughout in a different way. Yes Martin was a big part of it, but it was the definition of team offense. Bigs like Cousins were playing high on the drop and blitzing the ball handler, leading to some immediate counters from Miami. Quick pocket pass, which ultimately forces the 4 on 3, while providing a clear outlet with their reads: the dunker spot. Back to back possessions this was run in the second quarter, one with a dunk for KZ Okpala and the other a layup for Tyler Herro. When you don’t have Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, you can’t be individually dominant. The reads must be quick and with a purpose, which is something Herro struggled doing early. Tucker, on the other hand, didn’t.

#3: Some rotational changes for defensive purposes.

After diving into some first half offense, we must talk about the Heat semi-handling the Bucks’ stars without the two main pieces of their defensive structure. From a schematic perspective, they were not going to let Giannis Antetokounmpo dominate them inside. They dropped down 2 guys from the corners almost every time he had the ball, forcing the kick-outs for settling threes. Miami switched between Omer Yurtseven and KZ Okpala early for differing reasons. Yurtseven was the guy to match-up with Cousins early, and he didn’t too bad of a job. But to finish off the half, Spo just mirrored his minutes with Dedmon, leaving Okpala as the option when Antetokounmpo was the 5. Tucker defended, while KZ did his thing on help and switches. As I said, for defending a team as talented as the Bucks at the top of the roster, they did a great job with what they had.

#4: Kyle Lowry coming alive.

Kyle Lowry had a pretty interesting night to say the least. He didn’t have a great start whatsoever, while the shot attempts just kept coming. And without your two best players, he had to keep shooting the ball to stay in this game late. To finish the third, a change was made. Not with Lowry, but who was next to him. Herro and Robinson exited, Vincent and Strus enter. That almost feels to be an indication to Lowry that it’s scoring time. Herro generating so many turnovers on the ball meant more on Lowry’s plate as a play-maker, but he balanced it well. If you don’t get highly efficient and fiery Lowry, you need assertive Lowry. They got that guy tonight to a certain degree. Plus, Max Strus happened.

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#5: PJ Tucker or Bam Adebayo?

PJ Tucker has been a lot of things with this Heat team, but new things continue to pop up with his play-style. Tonight’s topic: play-making. You can’t use Dewayne Dedmon in a Bam Adebayo offensive role in any capacity, but you can use Tucker in some of those same spots. Running 4 on 3’s after doubles, perimeter hand-offs, front of the rim flips, and mid-post touches. Seeing him play in a Bam-lite role and impact the game late like he did showed a lot about his future playoff role with this Heat team. But more importantly, he can be the ultimate regular season filler if needed. Not to put up exact Bam numbers in the scoring or rebounding column, but he can do just enough to get by.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Memphis

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The Miami Heat fell short to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night, and that wasn’t even the worst news of the night. Jimmy Butler returned after 4 games, while it was clear that he shouldn’t have been playing whatsoever, ending with him being sent back to the locker room in the third.

But here are some takeaways from this interesting game…

#1: Miami’s defensive issues right out the gate.

When looking at the scoreboard alone, you can tell that Miami couldn’t score, while also couldn’t stop the Grizzlies from scoring. A terrible combination in the game of basketball. The defensive issues is just essentially life without Bam Adebayo. They did some more switching with Jimmy Butler back, but it was more of that big man recovery stuff as Dewayne Dedmon rotates down and the guards scramble. Adebayo would always stay out on that ball-handler as the ball would rotate into the big with a guard on his back, leaving many observers screaming. Yet, that is now known as the good times. In a Miami Heat, Erik Spoelstra defensive system, options is all they need. And they’re limited at this moment in time, combined with a semi-ginger Jimmy Butler.

#2: How are teams scheming against this new look Heat offense?

Adebayo is important, but is he as important as not being able to score on the offensive end night after night? Absolutely not. This leaves many questioning the issues on that end on nights like this, and one thing truly stood out. For one, Butler coming out quite rusty is an issue in itself, but that’s not the whole story. Although PJ Tucker has been great, solid defenders like Steven Adams can take advantage pretty easily. He’s gotten better inside the lane with that one-handed floater, but it’s not on super high volume that leave teams scheming against it. That means guys like Adams can free lance the lane on drives from Butler or Herro, limiting spacing for the top usage guys on the roster. It is what it is, since that’s going to happen in the playoffs, but release valves need to be shown much quicker on these nights.

#3: Tyler Herro doing what he does off the bench yet again.

Not many teams can play a game where you’re just buying time for your sixth man to come in and takeover. But that feels to be the case many games with this Heat team. Even with Butler in, they need that smooth scorer who can do it from any spot on the floor, especially considering there isn’t one bit of reluctancy with the amount of shots he should take. Upon entering, he was carving up that mid-range against the drop coverage that he loves, then sprinkled in more and more drives to the rim with the utilization of that backboard. But the issue is that checking your watch over and over in games like this can get you in trouble. That doesn’t mean he should start, since his role is working as a bench leader, but early starter production must rise for this formula to work. And being 7th in minutes on the team after 3 quarters should never be the case as well.

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#4: Some interesting minute distributions in this one.

Plain and simple: Tyler Herro was your best player tonight. No Bam Adebayo, an injured Jimmy Butler, and a patchy Kyle Lowry confirms that even more. But logging the 7th most minutes on the team through 3 quarters is just a very off stat to come across. The starting lineup discussion is one thing to have, but the argument is that he’s going to get the minutes anyway. Well, tonight that wasn’t really the case, even after coming out playing decently well. Another interesting substitution was playing Max Strus for a 3 minute span, then leaving him on the bench for the rest of the competitive minutes. On a night where you can’t really score, using Strus doesn’t seem like the worst thing in the world. Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin are great defenders, and that’s a cool theme to have, but relying on that skill of theirs to win games won’t work. Matching offense potentially can.

#5: Jimmy Butler playing through injury, which didn’t feel like the right call.

Jimmy Butler missed the last four games due to a tailbone injury, and if you thought he was taking his time coming back, this game against Memphis gave you your answer: he’s hurt. Early in this game, he fell right on that same spot on his back which left him in some pain, but the gingerly run came much earlier. He couldn’t move even close to the same way that he usually can, looked super uncomfortable with facial expressions, and frankly, had zero business being out there. Yes, it’s good to see him show some heart to want to battle with his team, but sometimes it’s just hugely unnecessary when trailing by double digits in a game in December. He headed back to the locker room mid-way through the third quarter, and that felt way too late for that to occur. He showed his usual grit, but definitely wasn’t the right call.

 

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The Offensive Shift in the Return of Jimmy Butler

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It’s hard enough to fight the uphill battle without Bam Adebayo, but being without Jimmy Butler takes that to an entirely different level.

Over the last 4 games without Jimmy Butler, the Heat have the 29th best defensive rating in the NBA, which is usually the case when you’re 2 best defenders are out of the lineup essentially. One being out means comfortable adjustments can be made. Both being out means you do creative things like run a 2-3 zone at all times with your second unit.

We haven’t gotten a good enough look at life without Adebayo, but that initial observation should be made tonight. With Butler expected to return, it’s time for the Miami Heat to get back to some type of normalcy.

When I say “normalcy,” I’m mostly pointing to the offensive adjustments that have been made over the last week. Yes, they have a fantastic play-maker running the show out on the perimeter, but they basically lost their base play-makers who operate from the interior.

Butler and Adebayo are known for working from the mid-post at least one time every trip down the floor, which then trickles down to putting pressure on the rim for some simple kick-outs. While life without both Adebayo and Butler has equated to straight flame throwing from three. Living or dying beyond the arc.

But like I said, change is coming.

Adebayo is as irreplaceable as it gets in this league, especially defensively, but we’ve seen Miami try to carry some things over in that sense. PJ Tucker taking over most of the DHO sets, and Dewayne Dedmon works them occasionally as well. Dedmon can also operate as that much needed roll presence without Adebayo, which means they’re just picking some of Bam’s skills up at a less elite level.

But without Butler, you can’t even try to do his work at a lesser level.

As we’ve seen as of late, they’ve pretty much abandoned all of the things he does well on a regular basis, and piled up on more perimeter aspects. More shots for Duncan Robinson, higher usage for Tyler Herro, etc.

When Caleb Martin, Max Strus, or even Herro enter the lineup for Butler, nobody is trying to emulate him offensively, because you simply can’t.

His free throw attempts can’t be matched, which have dropped to 29th in the league over the last 4 games.

His drives to the basket can’t be matched, since the only player who can draw close to as many people into the lane on the attack is out for the next 4 to 6 weeks.

His control of the game can’t be matched, while even though Kyle Lowry can speed you up into straight chaos, they’ve needed that guy who can slow things down to not let the game get out of hand.

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But well, now Jimmy Butler is back, and they’re heading straight into a period of time that is theirs to have. The next 10 days may be tough with Memphis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Cleveland, and Philadelphia up to bat on the schedule, but the following two weeks will be Butler time.

Orlando twice, Detroit twice, Indiana, Washington, San Antonio, and Houston. There’s a path to surviving without Bam Adebayo, and it begins with a strong finish to December, spearheaded by one of the league’s greatest leaders, Jimmy Butler.

Starting tonight, the Heat can move a little closer to homebase in terms of schematics, and that’s all you can ask for in this short-handed part of the season.

 

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Five Takeaways from Heat’s Loss to Bucks

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The Miami Heat faced off against the reigning champs tonight, and both sides looked quite different. No Giannis Antetokounmpo, no Jimmy Butler, no Bam Adebayo.

With that said, many short term takeaways can be made about this group, but the second night of a back to back without you’re two best players is why it’s hard to harp too much on this game.

So, here are some things I took away from this one…

#1: The Heat’s offense falling right into the Bucks trap.

Seeing the Bucks scoring 69 points in the first half may immediately equate to discussing the Heat’s defense, but I feel there were more things to note the other way around. The first reason for that was Milwaukee’s defense was schematically set up to compete tonight, and they did their job early. Everybody was instantly uncomfortable on that side of the floor with their solid help defense into quick rotations. That blended into an even worse trend for the offense: settling for shots. The mascot for that description was Caleb Martin threes, since the Bucks began to help further and further away for the ball to land in that exact spot. If he tried to penetrate, they were ready to help and rotate again. It’s more credit to Milwaukee early than pure Miami issues, but the shot profile cannot shift that dramatically.

#2: First half: comparing the top duo performances.

In a game when all headliners are off the table, in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo, the top dogs still matter. Well, the new top dogs. That led to all eyes on Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton for the Bucks, and they did their part, combining for 31 first half points and just controlling each side of the ball in the ways that they usually do. The issue was that Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro weren’t able to match that rhythm, as their first half is summarized by a combined 4 for 18 half of basketball. Once again, a lot of that refers back to the previous takeaway with the way the defense flipped completely between each team, but it’s just hard to win games like that. Herro being swarmed and Lowry on the second night of a back-to-back are the primary reasons for it falling off early.

#3: The bench player of the game continues.

Thinking back over this previous stretch, it always feels that Miami has one of their current/previous two-ways headlining a game in some way. Omer Yurtseven killing it late last night, Gabe Vincent stepping up when needed, Caleb Martin providing a spark. But tonight seemed to be Max Strus’ night after seeing his immediate impact in that struggling offense. Some quick threes kept Miami in it to some degree, basically keeping the theme of Robinson and Strus switching on and off every single night. To touch on a positive, discussing specific bench pieces stepping up in a scenario without Butler, Adebayo, Morris, and still no Oladipo, is a great sign in the big picture. And when it’s Strus, it’s an even bigger indicator due to him having the best odds to sustain his spot in that nine-man rotation for the remainder of the year.

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#4: Did Miami have enough? I don’t think so.

When Coach Spo or players talk about this team in terms of injuries, the same exact phrase comes up: “We have enough.” But it’s one thing to say it, and another thing to take it into consideration on a night like this. My opinion: they just didn’t have enough. That’s not a reflection of depth, since as I said before, many of them have done their part, but it’s much more about the overall structure when missing your two best players. The team’s leading scorer is missing, of course scoring is down. The team’s leading rebounder is missing, of course you’re losing that battle. They can squeak out some games, but until Butler returns, it’ll be hard to fully struggle in both of those departments from night to night and be okay. And frankly, high level play from Lowry and Robinson can mask them not having enough. When they look like guys on the second night of a back to back, it’s clearly different.

#5: On to the next.

The Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies are up next for this Miami Heat team, which is important to note in this post-game piece since it represents the Heat’s mindset tonight: already on the plane ride home. This next slate of games should be interesting for Miami, and the focus should be all about getting past December 15th, as the weaker teams in this league are all they will be facing to finish off the month. But that two-week period before the easier games is all about one thing, and one thing only: Jimmy Butler. It feels like we’re trending towards him suiting up on Monday night, but it feels necessary if Miami wants to end up with a W. Yes, the Grizzlies may be Morant-less, but with a win tonight, they’ll improve to a 4 game winning streak. And hot shooting teams that can hurt you from multiple angles screams the need of your best player on the floor. So, on to the next.

 

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It is time for Tua Tagovailoa to start at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins.

Goldie’s Best Bets NFL Week 13: Take Tua’s Dolphins again

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Goldie:

All Time Record: 226-120-1          

Vs. Spread: 167-179-1

 

21-22 Season:  100-65-1               

Vs. Spread: 78-90-1

 

Week 12 Record: 8-7                

Vs. Spread: 8-7

 

Guarantee Record: 13-13       

 

Upset Record: 13-12              

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff 

All Time: 31-10              

21-22 Season: 15-9       

Week 12: 1-0

 

Goldies Guarantee: LV -1

Washington Football Team (5-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)

Vegas Picks: LV -1

Goldie’s Take: Raiders Win 24-20

Raiders look to keep the momentum rolling after a big win in Dallas on Thanksgiving. The Raiders also have the rest/prep edge as they played on Thanksgiving, while No Names played Monday night. Raiders will miss TE Darren Waller, who’s doubtful for this game with a knee injury, but Washington is down multiple players as well. JD Mckissic, Landon Collins, and Wes Schweitzer are all already ruled out for this contest. AND Ereck Flowers is legitimately questionable. If Flowers misses the game this means No Names would be without both of their starting Guards. Raiders pass rush should take advantage of this and get Vegas a big win at home. I GUARANTEE IT!

 

Goldie’s UPSET of the Week

San Francisco 49ers (6-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-8)

Vegas Picks: SF -3.5

Goldie’s Take: Seahawks Win 27-26

Seattle clearly hasn’t been themselves all season. Things really hit the fan when Russell Wilson got hurt and missed three games, and even when he came back, the Hawks still haven’t looked like the Seahawks we’re used to. With all that being said, Seattle still has a small glimmer of hope at a playoff spot. If things are going to turn around for the Seahawks, it’s now or never. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are very aware of this. Some would even say Pete’s coaching for his job. Also, I don’t buy into the 49ers hype. UPSET!

 

Crazy Uncle Jeff’s Lock of the Week: MIA -6

New York Giants (4-7) @ Miami Dolphins (5-7)

Vegas Picks: MIA -6

Goldie’s Take: Dolphins Win 23-15

Don’t look now, but other than the Pats, the Miami Dolphins are probably the hottest team in football right now. During Miami’s four game winning streak we have seen their defense completely come back to life. Evident by the three INTs and five sacks they forced last week at the hands of Carolina. The box score doesn’t do that game justice either. The Fins defense DOMINATED Cam Newton and the Panthers. Carolina couldn’t get anything going the entire game. I envision a very similar result in this one with the Mike Glennon led Giants coming to town. Fins D controls the game, as Tua should be able to game-manage the Fins to their fifth straight W. The Crazy Uncle approves.

 

Minnesota Vikings (5-6) @ Detroit Lions (0-10-1)

Vegas Picks: MIN -7.5

Goldie’s Take: Vikings Win 28-24

Vikes coming off a disappointing loss in San Fran last week. What’s worse is the fact that stud RB Dalvin Cook was injured in that contest and is out for Sunday’s matchup in Mo-Town. Lions will also be without their star RB D’andre Swift, so that slow-moving offense takes yet another hit. Still, giving Detroit a good chance to keep this one within the fat betting line. Lions are 7-4 ATS this season, losing close games has become their bread and butter. 

 

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) @ Houston Texans (2-9)

Vegas Picks: IND -10

Goldie’s Take: Colts Win 28-14

Colts get a bit of a break in the midst of what is a very tough schedule. Bills and Bucs the past two games, and Pats and Cardinals on deck for Indy. Recipe for success in this one should be simple for the Colts. Feed Johnathan Taylor. The last time these two faced off, JT ran for 145 yards and 2 TDs to do his part in a 31-3 rout of their division rival. Expect a similar showing from Taylor this Sunday. Colts take care of business on the road. 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-6)

Vegas Picks: TB -11

Goldie’s Take: Buccaneers Win 30-22

Falcons have been one of the most inconsistent teams in football this season, so I’m going off trends in this one. Yes, I believe TOMpa Bay is clearly the better football team, but in their past 13 trips to the ATL, Tampa has only won by more than a TD just one time. Bucs will get the win, but I’m expecting Matty Ice to keep Dirty Birds in this one. 

 

Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) @ New York Jets (3-8)

Vegas Picks: PHI -7

Goldie’s Take: Eagles Win 30-14

After a tough loss to the New York Giants last week, Philly gets set to play on the road in the same stadium to face the New York Jets. I’m expecting a big bounce back performance for the Eagles in this one. Even after a loss where the offense only mustered 7 points, I still believe in Jalen Hurts and this offense. More importantly, I’m a big believer in Philly’s stingy defense. Birds are still my pick to land that final NFC Wild Card spot, and a rout of the lowly Jets is the first step in getting there. 

 

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ Chicago Bears (4-7)

Vegas Picks: ARI -7.5

Goldie’s Take: Cardinals Win 28-17

I don’t think I’ve picked Chicago one time this season, and that trend is not going to end here. Cardinals pass rush should give old banged up Andy Dalton fits all day. Plus Zona is slated to get back QB Kyler Murray and WR Deandre Hopkins. All signs point towards a Cardinals W in the Chi. Assuming Murray doesn’t have any setbacks with his injury, Cards should roll to a multiple score victory. 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

Vegas Picks: CIN -3

Goldie’s Take: Bengals Win 24-23

Toughest pick of the week for me because I have been a big Justin Herbert supporter for awhile now, however cooler heads prevail as I’m taking the Bengals to win this one. Cincy has won their past two games (against solid teams) by an average score of 25 points, while Bolts have really started to slip going 2-4 in their past six games. Giving Chargers a solid upset shot here, but smarter play is to take the red hot home team. Venue call!

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-4)

Vegas Picks: LAR -13

Goldie’s Take: Rams Win 31-17

Rams come home looking to bounce back after losing their last three games. This is the perfect game for LA to get back on track. To start, the game is at home so that’s a plus right away. Next, the game is against the Jags who have been near the bottom of the league for a while now. Rams loaded defense should make it a long day for Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence. Trev has had a very poor rookie year, and that trend should continue as he’s getting ready to face Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Rams cruise to victory at home.

 

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)

Vegas Picks: BAL -4.5 

Goldie’s Take: Ravens Win 26-20

Steelers were obliterated last week by division rival Cincinnati, while Ravens have been hanging on for wins in their past few games. It’s getting to be late in the season which means Big Ben starts to become weak and weary; expect a lot of Najee Harris in this one. Pitt should keep it close at home, but all signs point to the Ravens to get the win on the road. 

 

Denver Broncos (6-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Vegas Picks: KC -9.5

Goldie’s Take: Chiefs Win 27-21

Very confident in KC to win this one. Andy Reid is 14-3 when coming off a bye, and Mahomes is 7-1. Not too shabby. Also this one will be in Primetime at home. This has a Chiefs win written all over it. However, it is still a divisional game, and Denver has quietly won three of their last four. Chiefs will get the win but don’t be shocked when Teddy Two Gloves keeps this one within the fat betting line. 

 

New England Patriots (8-4) @ Buffalo Bills (7-4)

Vegas Picks: BUF -2.5

Goldie’s Take: Bills Win 27-24

Buffalo was finally supposed to seize AFC East supremacy when Brady left for Tampa Bay, but it seems the hoodie-wearing genius still has some tricks up his sleeve. Rookie Mac Jones seems to be fitting the offense perfectly, as Pats are the hottest team in football, winners of six in a row. However, Bills are the real deal on the other side as well. Should be an ugly game, as it’s supposed to be very windy and snowy in Buffalo on Monday Night. Viewing this one sorta like an old Kung-Fu movie. Young up and comer (Bills) have to go and take down the old wise OG who’s been the man for decades (Bellichick and the Pats). Get your popcorn ready, I think Bills are up to the challenge.

Five Takeaways from Heat’s Win Over Indiana

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To kick off another game without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, Miami came out hot this time around. Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, and Tyler Herro getting it done early, and Omer Yurtseven getting it done late, led to Miami’s victory over this Pacers team.

So, let’s take a look through some pretty positive takeaways this time…

#1: Is that Duncan Robinson?

Well, the Duncan Robinson breakout finally occurred on Friday night against Indiana, which trickled down to Bally Sports’ technical difficulties shortly after. Clearly not a coincidence. It was nothing new for Robinson in terms of approach, except them just actually going in. His third triple of the night was the one to harp on: gets it on the wing, fires, and-1. Shortly after, he let out some frustration to himself, which seemed like the type of breakthrough he’s been waiting for. After they started to drop, the new Robinson that many predicted coming into the season was on display. Defenders flying right by him on the slightest of shot fakes led to clear driving lanes for him to attack. He was working that floater, forcing strong defensive rotations, and got to the free throw line in a way I haven’t seen him do his entire NBA career. He’s back.

#2: Kyle Lowry doing everything early on, providing a flash from the past.

Although Robinson had to be the starting point of this one, Kyle Lowry was the player of the first half. Not just because he scored 20 points in that span, but instead the way he was doing it. Knocking down the three is always a good thing to see, but his ability to attack mismatches was the true key. That’s the flash from the past. We saw it in that one fourth quarter against the Clippers, but without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, it must be the starring act more often. He’s clearly been pacing himself to preserve his abilities as much as possible, but it’s obvious this is the time for it to be utilized. Tyler Herro can be the number one scoring option, but Lowry needs to be scoring Lowry for them to win these games. And as he did in this one, can blend right back into his strong play-making ways as defenses overplay.

#3: PJ Tucker doing the early dirty work.

PJ Tucker’s stat-line at the half consisted of 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block. That’s pretty much PJ Tucker on a nightly basis, but tonight was slightly different just because of what was needed. We talked a lot about the need for scorers the last few nights, but with the main guys stepping up, they needed that guy down low to provide extra opportunities for them, which led to Tucker diving on the floor any chance he got. We saw some Udonis Haslem and Omer Yurtseven early on, while Dewayne Dedmon continues to be productive in his starting role, but Tucker is the key to it all working. Even after getting late Yurtseven production, they needed strong play from Tucker to even get to that point where they feel comfortable going the Yurtseven route. He was big tonight, and he’ll be even bigger as they move forward.

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#4: Tyler Herro not that bottled up spark, but the calming hand.

Tyler Herro is always going to be a spark with the way he can score the basketball at the snap of a finger, but that’s not *all* that he is. Without Butler and Adebayo, while Lowry is lined up on his side with other seasoned veterans, they’re looking to him to be that steady hand on the offensive end to either speed them up or slow them down. Like I said before, he has the keys to the offense no matter who is in or out of the lineup, but the usage is rising in this scenario. The other thing that’s currently rising: trust levels. Even while Spoelstra has trusted him to finish games since his rookie year, this is totally different. Tucker, Dedmon, Lowry, and others were waiting for him to take them where they needed to go. The 21 year old.

#5: Omer Yurtseven is ready.

Omer Yurtseven has been a garbage time killer many nights, leaving many observers wanting him to get that opportunity. Well, he got that opportunity early in this one, and it was kinda rough. He looked a bit timid, his decision making was too predictable, and was just searching for his way out there. Just like any young guy would. Spoelstra still had confidence in him through that second half for some more playing time, and he delivered. He found a rhythm in the zone defensively by altering shots, rolled with a purpose as ball-handlers found him, and stayed on his toes in an experienced fashion. Miami needed one young buck to step up over this stretch, and we’ve seen some flashes from KZ Okpala and now Yurtseven in back to back games. It’ll come down to match-ups, but Yurtseven showed tonight that he just needs time. And time will be coming his way.

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882