What Hassan Whiteside means to where Miami Heat stand now

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Hassan Whiteside’s polarizing return to Miami perfectly symbolized where the Heat stand since they dealt him last summer. 

 

Try and remember Fall 2014. A few months after LeBron James’ sudden departure. The Miami Heat are off to a shaky start to the post-LeBron era, and early in November end up cutting former high-flyer Shannon Brown in order to sign Hassan Whiteside, a relative unknown. Heat fans and NBA fans alike had no idea what was coming thereafter.

 

Whiteside, after putting together a few positive games, including multiple triple doubles with blocks as well as a few national TV moments, to then a few positive weeks, to, eventually, three-fourths of a positive season, became a per-36 darling and was playing like a seriously impactful big man. 

 

After being out of the league and playing on multiple different continents as well as multiple different D-League teams, he had Heat fans extremely excited about the prospects of unearthing yet another project big man after Whiteside finished off the 2014-2015 campaign with a 14/12/3 (points/rebounds/blocks) statline post All-Star break.

 

A couple more seasons of playing like a giant Defensive Player of the Year candidate passed by, and Hassan Whiteside was considered to be in the crop of the top unrestricted, max-contract free agents.

 

A 5-team bidding war proceeded, and Whiteside remained loyal to the team that gave him a real shot at redemption, re-signing with the Heat in the infamous Summer 2016 to a near-$100 million deal that would keep him as the highest paid player on the roster after the Chris Bosh debacle went down, and after having traded (and re-signed) Goran Dragic that year. 

 

No one could’ve known then that he’d be getting consistently booed in his return to the Miami Heat in his last season of the four-year contract he inked.

 

The reality was, after a gradual athletic and subsequent performance decline, as well as a couple of public spats regarding his role and playing time, Hassan’s time in Miami was dwindling, and came to a climax last summer when they dealt him to Portland in return for Meyers Leonard, in order to help facilitate the Jimmy Butler sign-and-trade.

 

Now, in the early days of 2020, the Miami Heat have gotten off to a strong 25-10 start, playing at about the level of a top 10 team on both ends since the season tipped off, coming into this game. In the summer, Hassan Whiteside subtly went at the Heat with his now-infamous “We got shooters” line. 

 

Then, a perceived shot at Hassan came around after the Heat’s last game before Whiteside’s return to Miami, when Head Coach Erik Spoelstra was talking up all the things Jimmy does on the floor, even while not shooting well.

 

 

During the introduction and throughout the game, Whiteside was getting booed in every second he was involved in. There were also plenty of “We got shooters” chants meant to mock Whiteside going on as well. He made it known post-game that he never meant to send shots at the Miami Heat, reiterating his intended message.

 

 

Although I’m getting serious walk-back vibes there, (Hassan forgot to mention the part where he said something to the effect of “We got shooters that can actually dribble”), Hassan Whiteside doesn’t deserve the amount of ire he continues to receive from Heat fans. 

 

 

At the same time, his post-game comments had some Heat fans re-evaluating their feelings on Whiteside.

 

 

 

While myself and many others were chirping for the team to trade him since the start of his decline, he was still a very productive player all throughout his tenure in Miami, finishing with just about a 15/14/3 statline in that span.

 

We shouldn’t forget just how much of a fan favorite he was those first few years, with many expecting him to be a perennial All-Star and DPOY candidate for years to come. 

 

It just…. Went the opposite direction when we least expected it to, something that happened more than a few times throughout the post-LeBron era.

 

It’s fitting then that, in the same game, his former partner-in-crime Goran Dragic went off for 29 points and 13 assists off the bench, (11/17 from the field, 7/10 from three), while the man who ended up taking his place, the younger Bam Adebayo, put up a 20/8/6/1/1 statline, with his sole block in the game coming on Whiteside and the player he was traded for, sunk three threes, further emphasizing what Whiteside never brought to the table.

 

The Heat were up double digits and in the twenties for a good chunk of the game, and ending up with a relatively easy win, despite playing without Jimmy Butler. In a game where CJ McCollum did not play due to [South Beach] sickness, despite Damian Lillard shooting 50% from both the field and from three, as well as Whiteside going 9-of-12 from the field, putting up a gaudy 21/18/2 statline, the Blazers never really put up a fight in this game. 

 

Maybe that’s all we really need to know about who ended up being on the right side of winning. 

 

We saw more indicators of where the 26-10 Miami Heat stand: a relevant, playoff-level team that is showing the signs of being a team that could go on a prolonged run in the Playoffs. 

 

Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers, after reaching the Western Conference Finals last spring, now stand at 15-22 for the season, after dealing some longtime wings and acquiring Whiteside as the fill-in for the injured Jusuf Nurkic. 

 

Things don’t always turn out the way we want them to, check: ‘Dwyane Wade, Chicago Bulls. So, to properly contextualize this timeline, Wade’s departure led to Jimmy’s arrival and subsequently, the return to national relevance, just like the Whiteside trade did. 

 

In that case, was Hassan Whiteside just the purgatory, or rather, the symbol for the transitional period the Heat were in post-LeBron and, eventually, post-Bosh, to lead us directly into this newfound Jimmy-Bam era? Life can be funny that way, huh?

 

Alex Toledo (@TropicalBlanket) appears regularly on the Five on the Floor podcast on Five Reasons Sports Network.

Launching Pad: Tyler’s Herroics, Jimmy’s Jumper, Heat’s Handoffs

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 24-8 (3-0, 2nd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 110.8 (111.6)

• Defensive Rating: 106.3 (110.3)

• Net Rating: plus-4.5 (plus-1.3)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.6 (55.1)

• Pace: 99.59 (97.13)

• Time of Possession: 14.7 seconds (14.9)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Derrick Jones Jr., Meyers Leonard

• Minutes: 12

• Offensive Rating: 103.4

• Defensive Rating: 86.2

• Net Rating: plus-17.2

• True-Shooting Percentage: 57.1

• Pace: 97.8

The Big Number: 12.3

It’s easy to scoff at the importance of role-players, particularly when their contributions aren’t sparkly on the stat sheet. Cliches are boring — we want highlights and arbitrary benchmarks that put you in the air with legends!

There’s still value in doing your job. The #LittleThings, if you will. Meyers Leonard does exactly that.

He’s the Heat’s most valuable screener, consistently springing guards free with smart angles. His reads have become better in that regard. He still pops more than he dives to the rim, but his ability to find those pockets of space allow the Heat offense to flow.

Defensively, Leonard is comfortable as the “Drop” big or the backbone of the zone. Bad things can happen when he’s forced to defend in space, but his size and spatial awareness make him effective at the rim. Opponent shot just 50 percent at the rim against Leonard this week, per Second Spectrum.

Absolutely none of what I described is conventionally exciting. Leonard’s averages from the week — 6.0 points, 6.7 rebounds in 23.5 minutes — don’t call for Player of the Week chants. But the Heat were 12.3 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court.

Weekly Trends

1. Tyler Time

This is the sequence of the season so far.

That is Tyler Herro, allegedly a rookie, calling his own number with a stepback three facing a two-point deficit. Clearly he’s a descendant of Stonehenge.

Not even two minutes later, Herro takes — and makes — an even more difficult shot.

Initial action breaks down. Improv. Herro receives a pitch, then steps back into another triple to give the Heat a one-point lead.

In both cases, Herro is sharing the court with a perennial All-Star (Jimmy Butler) and a former All-Star (Goran Dragic). He’s still confident enough to say “Nah, I got this.”

Herro isn’t scared of anything. This is something we collectively knew, even if it was something I undersold. Not only is he fearless in big moments, he’s pretty darn good in them.

Per 36 clutch minutes, Herro is averaging 25-8-2 with a 53-54-100 shooting split. Only Butler is averaging more clutch points for the Heat, though that’s because he’s averaging more free throw attempts than Herro is averaging shot attempts.

As usual, the “how” matters more than the “what” here. Herro’s feel for the game really shines through, particularly in 2-on-2 scenarios. Playing “Drop” coverage against him is an invitation of death. Though he’s a two-level scorer at this stage, he’s able to compensate for his rim-finishing woes with cotton-soft floaters and timely passes when the big commits.

Very loudly, Herro is showing the kind of secondary creator chops needed to raise the Heat’s playoff ceiling. Him becoming a pull-up artist isn’t necessarily a surprise; doing it against elite defenses, and this soon, is almost absurd.

2. Is Jimmy Broken?

On the other end of the spectrum … it’s time to talk about it.

Jimmy Butler has mostly been a godsend for the Heat. He’s been all about empowerment, on and off the floor.

Butler has made a point to blend in with teammates; his relationships with Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Goran Dragic have been well-documented to this point. He’s sharing the ball, posting a career-high in assists (6.7). When the time comes, he can still take games over with shoulder-checking drives to the basket.

But good lord, man, what is going on with his shot?

Per Synergy, Butler’s 28.5 percent clip on jumpers rank 162nd among 168 players that have taken at least 100 of them. His 0.703 point-per-possession mark on those shots rank 165th.

He’s been a mess on guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (23.1 percent), unguarded looks (33.3 percent), and jumpers off the dribble (30.8 percent). The latter is especially important because of how often he operates in pick-and-roll.

Teams ducking under picks against Butler isn’t a new strategy, but it’s one that has particularly bothered him against the Sixers this season. You need pull-up shooting to neutralize their size and length; Butler hasn’t been able to do so.

Butler’s been able to to compensate from an efficiency standpoint because of his forays to the rim. He’s still driving like a madman, and ranks third in the NBA in free attempts per game (9.4).

But those kind of windows close in the postseason. Butler’s career postseason free throw rate (39.3) is nearly 10 percentage points lower than his regular season clip (49.2). Defenses will get more blatant with their give-him-space strategy. He’s going to need to prove he can make defenses respect him off the bounce.

3. Gettin’ Pitchy With It

On a recent episode of Five On The Floor, my colleague Alex Toledo talked about Bam Adebayo and the gap defense he faced against the Sixers. He noted that there were three ways for Adebayo to counter that: attack the basket (#FloaterGang), take open jumpers, or use the defender’s space against him by flowing into handoffs.

The latter point is especially key, because it was a huge part of Miami’s offensive success this past week.

Adebayo ranks in the top five of screen assists (5.1) and points via screen assists (11.8) this season, per Second Spectrum. Those numbers skyrocketed to 7.3 and 17.7 respectively during Miami’s 3-0 stretch.

Take these plays from the Utah game for example. Watch how far back Rudy Gobert is from Adebayo. Conversely, watch how quickly Adebayo is able to generate these looks:

Shockingly, the Heat lead the NBA in points via dribble-handoffs (289 total, 9.0 per game) and are second in points per possession (1.062)

They’re essentially condensed pick-and-rolls that don’t give the big time to recover. Having shooters like Herro and Duncan Robinson that can fling off-movement triples give the Heat’s offense a layer of unpredictability that teams can’t really account for.

Set Play of the Week

Post-Split Pandemonium 

There is a lottttttt going on in this train reaction of an opening set.

Before digging into what happens — and why it works — it’s important to understand what Philadelphia wants to do. It’s easy to point out their scheme with the big (Joel Embiid) — they want to drop back and close off lanes to the rim. But that also affects they way they defend the perimeter.

The Sixers don’t just want to run shooters off the line, they want to funnel everything inside to Embiid specifically. Within that lens, peep how high Josh Richardson plays Kendrick Nunn, and the positioning used to force him left. On the other side, it’s notable that Tobias Harris is basically face-guarding Robinson.

Now, this is why it works for Miami.

After Nunn enters the ball into Butler, he wraps around Butler and cuts baseline. Because Richardson is trailing him in an effort to funnel him inside, Ben Simmons stunts to disrupt Nunn’s cut. On top of that, Embiid drops further down to cut off that path.

Robinson and Leonard are reading all of this, and kick off their action right as Nunn begins his cut. With Embiid occupied with Nunn, there’s no path to him to disrupt any sort of pindown. Al Horford is technically in position to help, but that opportunity disappears when Leonard dives.

Robinson essentially fakes a flex screen (down-screen for Leonard) before flying off a screen from Adebayo. Harris has no chance of tracking Robinson, and there’s nobody up top to help him out either.

This is a fantastic example of the Heat using opponent tendencies against them.

New Year Resolutions Came Early for the Miami Heat

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As 2020 approaches, replete with all of the resolutions and commitments to diet and exercise that come with a fresh New Year, the Miami Heat are exempt from such firm declarations at this time.

In the life cycle of every Miami Heat player, the in-house expectation is always the same regardless of calendar position: to become your absolute best, getting and staying in world class shape is a demand, not a request.

Pat Riley acknowledged as much in his end of season press conference last April.

“I set the template for it back in 1995 when I got here,” Riley said. “It’s academic. It’s a culture that I think every professional team should start with…. They want their players to be world class athletes first and knowing that if they become that, their basketball skills can become more efficient when they’re in great condition.”

“But every now and then, I used to call it, you got to tighten the screw if there is some slippage” Riley added. “And there will be changes next year. Not a new culture but tightening the screws on a culture that sometimes erodes just a little bit.”

Last year’s Heat team appeared to have rested on their laurels. “One Last Dance” with Dwyane Wade was the focus, and for all the warm and fuzzies that dance provided, it couldn’t offset the slippage.

Fast forward to the 2019-20 Miami Heat, and the screws have been tightened.

Riley made good on his promise of changes. Roster changes, lineup changes and absolutely no tolerance for approaching the process with anything less than total commitment.

Expectations were set on the first day of training camp, a message Coach Erik Spoelstra delivered to the team promptly.

“Look, we have a level of expectation and professionalism that you’re going to have to uphold. Period.” Meyers Leonard recalled as Coach Spo’s message to the team back in October.

What does the process of getting in “world class shape” look like?

Nutrition is a natural starting point.

Heat starter Duncan Robinson has made this a primary focus and has seen the results pay off in big ways. Robinson literally looks different this season.

“For me, what I tried to emphasize was my diet. I worked with a dietician and started cooking my own meals that way I knew exactly what was going into my body. Being locked in and consistent with that helped me put on the weight.” Robinson told Five Reasons Sports.

“I think the biggest difference is the emphasis and consistency they put on it here (in Miami).”

When we think of athletes training to be in world class shape, sometimes the assumption is athletes are asked to turn down food to maintain their chiseled physique.  Robinson paints a different picture.

“It was a hard adjustment to add more calories. The big adjustment was in the morning, eating such a big breakfast. I was having like 1,300-1,400 calories for breakfast. I wasn’t used to it.”

The team tracks their macronutrients – protein, fat, and carbohydrates. Players do not need to guess when it comes to meal prep. “I was given a meal plan and a shopping list” Robinson added.

Robinson had to go as far as cutting out one food item that is near and dear to all Floridian hearts: Publix subs.

“I had to cut out Pub(lix) subs. The chicken tender sub is really good. They’re not the healthiest thing in the world, but they are good for sure. There’s a saying that “cut” is in the kitchen. You’ve got to be eating the right stuff, especially if you’re working out as much as we are. That was the biggest adjustment from college to here.”

Leonard has a similar regiment.

“I eat between 4,800-5,000 calories a day. Most of it clean. It’s honestly kind of like a second job. I eat two pounds of protein per day,” Leonard told Five Reasons Sports.

“The focus off the floor is so important when it comes to how you’re going to perform on it. I want to look good, feel good, and perform well.”

The Heat training staff makes it easy for players to become educated and connected to the proper resources.

“The Heat have done a great job putting together a staff that allows for players to ask questions and get better. When you’re putting yourself through the ringer like that, you also have to have a staff and a support system that understands what you need and will work with you,” Leonard said.

Kelly Olynyk has transformed his body since his arrival in Miami, but it hasn’t been easy.

“It’s tough. It’s dedication and a lot of it is sacrifice. You’re not going to be eating the things you want to eat. You can’t take days off. You have to make sure that you’re giving a conscious effort day in and day out. I have to do something every single day. If I take days off, it hits me harder than it hits others. My body will lose body fat if I’m disciplined,” Olynyk explained.

Discipline, to the extent that Heat Culture demands, is not for everyone. The starting front court in Miami has embraced the process.

“I love it. I think that we are, first of all, blessed to do what we do, and also we’re paid pretty damn nicely. So, to stay in shape and be ready and do the little things that matter should be an expectation anyways,” explained Leonard.

Heat star Bam Adebayo takes the responsibility of carrying Heat Culture into the next decade seriously.

“There’s no limit in being in even greater shape. We just go out there and try to keep our body fat as low as possible, maintain our weight at a good playing weight, and eat right,” Adebayo told Five Reasons Sports.  “They hold us responsible for it, so whatever you put in your body is going to show on the court. We play fast, so if you can’t keep up, then it’s obviously in your diet, and that’s pretty much the Heat Culture, for real.”

Heat rookie sensation Tyler Herro now knows the reality of Heat Culture after spending a year in the college ranks at Kentucky.

“It was definitely an adjustment. Coming from Kentucky, they prepare you to be a pro. I think that’s the reason why you go to Kentucky. But it’s definitely been an adjustment in all aspects. I’m still adjusting. Taking it one day at a time,” Herro told Five Reasons back in October.

This year’s Heat team is a working embodiment of everything Heat Culture stands for, and it shows with what and who we are seeing on the court.

“It’s not really an option, so if you don’t want to do it, then you probably won’t be playing for the Heat much longer,” said Herro.

That sentiment has proven to be much more a promise than a threat – and it is paying off for the Heat this season.

Tightening the screws has led to a happy new year indeed.

Brian Goins contributed to this story.

Launching Pad: Bam’s Buckets, Nunn’s Growth, Zone Success

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 21-8 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 110.7 (116.8)

• Defensive Rating: 105.8 (113.5)

• Net Rating: plus-4.9 (plus-3.3)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.0 (62.1)

• Pace: 99.84 (99.00)

• Time of Possession: 14.6 seconds (14.8)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard

• Minutes: 41

• Offensive Rating: 124.4

• Defensive Rating: 102.4

• Net Rating: plus-22.0

• True-Shooting Percentage: 66.6

• Pace: 97.8

The Big Number: 40.0

“We just didn’t guard nobody, man, from the beginning of the game. I think that’s the direction that we’re trending in right now. I feel like we got to take it personal. That doesn’t mean enough to us right now, to man up and take the challenge.”

That was was Jimmy Butler following the Heat’s loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz dropped 118 on the Heat, including a 13-for-36 outing from three. The attempts matter more than the makes here; they came often and easy, much as they have all year against the Heat.

Per tracking data from Cleaning The Glass, the Heat allow the second largest share of three-point attempts in the league. 40 percent of enemy shots come from beyond the arc, slightly besting the Toronto Raptors (40.1) for the highest clip in the league.

The Heat have survived because those shots … just haven’t gone in. Opponents have shot just 31.2 percent on above-the-break threes (2nd in the NBA) and 36.2 percent on corner triples (8th) this season.

You can blame, if that’s the word, a lot of this on the scheme. You’re generally banking on teams taking tough pull-ups against a “Drop” scheme. When you combine that with shaky defense at the point of attack (miss you, Justise), and some liberal help rules from the “nail” — you can get a brief intro here — the Heat are at risk of some swing-swing-shoot sequences that bleed open looks.

 

Pay attention to Tyler Herro in that clip. That ends up being a tough shot because it’s for Solomon Hill, but it was mostly open. There was no real reason for Herro to help down in the first place.

The Heat want to be disruptive in that area, but they have to be smart about it if they want to limit attempts moving forward.

Weekly Trends

1. Bam, thriving in the middle

When we saw Bam Adebayo face off against the Sixers on November 23rd, he was greeted with the most aggressive version of “Drop” coverage he had seen all season. Joel Embiid played no less than eight feet off of him, basically daring Bam to do … anything, really.

Narrator: he didn’t do anything, really.

Adebayo finished the game with 12 points on 5-of-9 shooting, though the impact went beyond those numbers. With Embiid conceding that much space, he effectively eliminated Miami’s cut-heavy offense. DHO action with Adebayo went nowhere; his indecision off the bounce stunted an already-limited offense. It was ugly.

Adebayo has turned into a true offensive threat since that game, particularly in the middle of the floor.

He’s sprinkling in jumpers with more regularity:

The floater is coming along, with either hand:

And, buddy, is he showing off some juice off the dribble:

Before that Sixers game, Adebayo had only eclipsed 17 points four times. He’s averaging 17.5 points in the 14 games since, with four games over 20. He’s shot 22-of-46 (47.8 percent) on shots between 5-14 feet during that time frame.

As he’s become more comfortable in the intermediate area, the offense has become more difficult to defend.

2. Kendrick Nunn is calming down

Nunn has been a revelation for the Heat this season. Not only is he the Heat’s second leading scorer (16.4), he’s currently the highest scoring rookie in Heat history.

(Yes, he is currently outpacing Dwyane Wade by 0.2 points.)

Nunn’s scoring repertoire is impressive. He can drill pull-up triples, has an assortment of moves in the middle, and can finish at the rim with either hand. Three-level scorers are incredibly hard to find; three-level scorers that can bring plus-value in other areas are nearly impossible.

Nunn is more of the former than the latter right now, which is still a win for the Heat. His limitations as a passer have been pointed out by yours truly. He has routinely called on his own number when making a pass might’ve been a better option.

To his credit, he’s seen the floor better over the past couple of weeks. It’s especially worth highlighting now because he’s been able to strike a nice shoot-pass balance while scoring effectively. He isn’t making CP3-esque reads in the half-court, but he’s hitting the easy stuff — and doing so in a timely manner.

Nunn may be an older rookie, but he is a rookie nonetheless. His decision-making has gotten better over time, and that should continue as he becomes more accustomed to the speed of the game.

3. Zoning up

The more things change, the more things say the same. Erik Spoelstra doesn’t mind getting weird to shift the odds in his favor. He’s done so with his growing usage of the 2-3 zone over the last three years, a trump card that has done more good than evil.

Only two teams — the Washington Wizards (196 possessions) and Toronto Raptors (189) — have played more possessions in zone than the Heat (145). Of the 14 teams that have logged at least 30 possessions, the Heat rank third in defensive efficiency. allowing 0.848 points per possession.

Having guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and Jimmy Butler at the head of the zone is patently unfair. Their length and instincts make it nearly impossible to thread the needle on skip passes. Their closing speed up top also makes it difficult for drivers to penetrate the lane.

As with most schematic things in the NBA, putting more reps on tape will inevitably lead to solutions. The Grizzlies and Sixers (particularly late in the 4th quarter) were able to swing the ball around and generate corner 3s. The Heat give up enough of those in their base defense; they don’t need to do the same in zone.

Still, the zone has been an effective change-up for them this season. The scary thing is that it could get better whenever Justise Winslow returns.

Set Play of the Week

Floppy, with a twist

In terms of half-court actions, it generally doesn’t get more common than “Floppy” — screening action near the baseline in an effort to spring a shooter (or two) free.

What you normally don’t see is a big man on the receiving end of the screen.

Kelly Olynyk is having a down year overall, and we’ll probably need to discuss his role at some point. When he is on the court, he’s still one of the more unique weapons in basketball. He marches to the beat of his own drum in dribble-handoffs, but at his most basic, he’s a darn good shooter.

The very nature of a stretch big stresses defenses out. It ruins “Drop” coverage because it either concedes open looks, or pulls enemy big men out of the paint. Olynyk brings an added element as an off-movement shooter. He’s an awkward watch, but still fluid enough to balance himself and fire off the catch.

The Knicks had no chance here, but have they really had one in 20 years?

Complexity of a Jrue Holiday fit for the Miami Heat

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What the hell are the Miami Heat this season? Are they a contender? A feel good story? A team waiting for 2021? All of that? It’s weird, they are weird and with greater expectations comes urgency.

And that changes everything.

The Heat are loaded with contracts that make it easy to match any star player they would want, they have young attractive rotation players and now they are heavily linked to Pelicans guard, Jrue Holiday. For the Heat is the star guard worth cashing their chips?

The answer is kinda complicated and it doesn’t come without risks. Holiday has a 2021 player option for $26 million and should he opt in it will leave Miami without a max slot for the summer of Giannis. On the flip side, Miami could be a move or two away from the Finals and that’s all this organization wants. A chance. A shot at the title. 

The framework around the deal is the elephant in the room. If it does happen it’s conceivable that the package would include Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow and other salary to match. Considering the Heat are up against hard cap, it will take careful maneuvering and perhaps even a third team involved in any trade. It’s been said that the deal would have to include Tyler Herro which might be the deal breaker for the Heat. However if Pat Riley, cap wizard Andy Elisburg and company can negotiate around that, would the move make basketball sense? The question then becomes: does the move put them over the top into the conversation for the Finals?

Start here: Holiday isn’t a plus shooter by any means. His last three seasons, his three point percentages have been 34, 33 and 34. Playing him alongside Bam Adebayo, who doesn’t space the floor, could really limit the Heat’s offense down the stretch. Holiday would likely be a catch and shoot option in late game offense with Jimmy Butler triggering sets and Holiday is at just 34 percent on catch and shoot threes this season, consistent with his overall shooting. Thus, playing Adebayo, Holiday and Jimmy Butler (28 percent from three this season) in crunch time, as would be the case every night, would create spacing trouble. 

Naturally, it’s important to note that Justise Winslow is struggling this season even more than Holiday this season from deep, at 23 percent. Without question, Holiday is an offensive upgrade to Winslow.

I don’t think it can be argued that adding a recent All-Star and All-Defensive Team player would hurt the Miami Heat. Holiday makes them better no question, but losing two ball handlers for one brings Miami’s margin for error down significantly and Winslow’s size allows the Heat to be a more versatile defensive team. It’s a give and take that ultimately probably nets positive.

There are some concerns offensively but you trust that stars will figure those out, while you lose an elite wing defender you gain one at guard. Holiday would most likely move Kendrick Nunn to a bench role similar to what was being asked of Goran Dragic, to score in bunches and protect leads. The Heat would ask Derrick Jones Jr. to defend bigger wings more often, so long as he’s not part of a trade package. They still might be a wing defender short come playoff time, with names like Simmons, Harris, Brogdon, Giannis, Middleton, Siakam, Brown, Tatum, Hayward on the list of players Winslow would be asked to defend. Is Jones Jr. the playoff answer for that? 

Risking 2021 cap space for what would be Miami’s third best player also raises questions and this is why the move isn’t so cut and dry. This season the Heat have one shot at a needle-moving player because Dragic’s 19 million expiring contract is the big thing that would help them match salary and Winslow is the one attractive young piece the Heat might move. Saving these for a better player than Holiday might be the way to go, but it’s also possible a better player doesn’t become available. 

This team hasn’t been healthy lately as well, and to make knee jerk moves when their third and fourth best players have been out is premature. Without the extra ballhandlers Miami has been easier to defend, depending significantly on dribble-hand off sets and shooters hitting off the curls. It’s a far cry from the Heat’s Horns-heavy motion offense which feature multiple dribble and shooting threats that had Miami’s offense humming. 

It’s unlikely this trade alone puts them over the Sixers or the Bucks and it might come at the expense of 2021 if Holiday opts in. There is an argument to be made that with so many teams having cap space he would try for one last payday. Yet it’s still a risk that he punts on that or an injury would compel him to opt in. Theoretically the Heat can ask him to opt out and bring him back over the cap with his Bird Rights. So there are angles the Heat can play if things break their way. 

With the Heat ahead of schedule and Butler having a timer on his prime there is now a sense of urgency that wasn’t with the Heat in October. Even if they don’t make a move they still sit half a game out the two seed in the East (and half a game out of sixth), with a star, talented young players and a max salary slot in 2021. There are worse positions to be in and the Heat have to look in the mirror and decide what gambles are worth taking for the short term at the expense of 2021 flexibility.  The clock is ticking. To Jrue or not Jrue, that is the question. There’s no easy answer. 

 

Giancarlo Navas (@GNavas103) is the host of Miami Heat Beat.

Guts Check: Bam Adebayo has No Ceiling

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won in OT vs Atlanta 135-121
  • Lost vs the Lakers 113-110
  • Won in OT at Dallas 122-118
  • Lost At Memphis 118-111

After the emotional fatigue associated with the ESPN Heat Index of the Big 3 era, I am usually leery nowadays when the Heat get national recognition. Always equal parts grateful and guarded. I can’t help but feel a bit protective of our finally-fun-again basketball team.

Fun again being a key point I want to marinate on briefly. Yeah I know they lost last night in Memphis, but they were bound to have a short rotation and multiple overtimes catch up with them. Let’s not let one bad loss cloud our thinking. This has been FUN.

First, we marveled at the play of Kendrick Nunn for a couple weeks, then we got acquainted to the Bucket Bros, then came Duncan Robinson shooting flames, Goran Dragic carrying the team off the bench for stretches. Among all those storylines it’s amazing to consider that the leap Adebayo is taking is easily the most impactful development on the entire roster.

What Bam Adebayo is doing is impossible to ignore.

As I always say, he has no ceiling. It’s not mere hope trafficking folks, this dude is the truth. He’s a top 22 player at age 22. On his way to being top 10 or 12 eventually. He has 2 triple doubles already this season, becoming the youngest Heat player ever to accomplish that feat.

A big man getting triple double with assists. Adebayo subscribes to the “don’t talk about it, be about it” method of earning triple doubles. Not often does a player that isn’t ball dominant have the chance to become a top 10 guy. To call him a rare talent is an understatement.

The league is on notice. Evidence by his recent Eastern Conference player of the week award announced yesterday.

Adebayo is a Chris Webber, Draymond Green, Kevin Garnett hybrid. He seems to unlock a different part of his game each night and him becoming this good this fast is jaw dropping.

Of course, Bam has much to go to be mentioned with the likes of Webber and Garnett. Yet the way in which Adebayo works at his craft bodes well for his development into a player who can become as decorated as those greats. He has the chance to be that good.

At one time, Heat fans often considered Bam a player that potentially would have to be sacrificed in the move to bring a superstar to the team. Now it appears his presence on the roster may be the deciding factor in another superstar deciding to join Jimmy & co in Miami.

Oh, and just so we’re clear: Adebayo has been labeled essentially untouchable by Heat brass according to a source.

So as the trade deadline approaches, remember that any trade rumor you see that mentions his name can be dismissed as bogus fodder. I don’t think a single fan will disagree with that decision by the Heat either.

Now let’s get him to Chicago for the All-Star game so he can mingle with the league’s best all weekend and talk up the Culture.

Bam has a chance to be a superstar magnet. I don’t think it should be discounted how important it is for the Heat to have seemingly surrounded Jimmy with such a great cast. Adebayo’s ascension is the kind of happening that makes the Heat’s 2021 pitch an entirely different conversation than we initially expected.

The Heat insist they would have selected Bam even if Donovan Mitchell was available in 2017. At first, I scoffed at the notion. Now I have been left to praise.

Launching Pad: Derrick’s Defense, Butler’s Bullying, Struggling Shooters

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 19-7 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 110.0 (115.0)

• Defensive Rating: 105.0 (111.4)

• Net Rating: plus-5.0 (plus-3.6)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.6 (58.1)

• Pace: 99.94 (98.96)

• Time of Possession: 14.6 seconds (14.6)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Derrick Jones Jr., Bam Adebayo

• Minutes: 26

• Offensive Rating: 153.8

• Defensive Rating: 92.6

• Net Rating: plus-61.2

• True-Shooting Percentage: 73.1

• Pace: 96.75

The Big Number: 9.4

There’s been a weird thing going on with the Heat’s offense this season. As of this morning (December 16th), the Heat rank in the top six in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, true shooting percentage, and assist rate. Teams that score that efficiently and share the ball that well generally rank better than 10th (which is fine!) in offensive rating.

Those teams generally don’t turn the ball over like the Heat do.

Their preference – and at times, reliance – on half-court cuts lead to some ambitious passing. The Heat currently rank 29th in turnover rate (16.7 percent), only ahead of the Atlanta Traes (16.9). That’s partly why their offensive rating was five points higher than their season average, despite their true shooting percentage being a shade lower than their normal average.

Surprisingly, it’s easier to score when you maintain possession of the ball.

Weekly Trends

1. Derrick Jones Jr: Swiss Army Knife

On Thursday, I asked Derrick Jones Jr. where he was most comfortable on defense. Does he like hounding guards? Tracking like-sized 3s? Roaming as the weak-side helper at the 4?

His response: wherever the team needs him. He called himself “positionless” and said, matter-of-factly- that he can “guard 1-through-5.” It’s hard to argue with him after the week he just put together.

It started with him getting the Trae Young assignment on Tuesday.

He then spent time defending LeBron James:

And thennnnn he got to bang with Kristaps Porzingis on Saturday.

This is on top of his usual work as the head of Miami’s zone

Jones Jr. still has hit warts on that end. The angles he takes when navigating pick-and-rolls still leave a bit to be desired. True post threats can give him the blues; Anthony Davis took his lunch money on the few possessions he defended him on Friday.

All in all, it’s hard to complain about the work Jones Jr. has done defensively. He’s clearly improved. That, along with the organized chaos he provides as a transition threat and offensive rebounder, gives him a clear path to closing minutes.

2. The Butler Drove it (and drove it and drove it and drove it)

Jimmy Butler is finally starting to find his groove as a scorer. He’s up to 21 points per game after a conservative start to the year. The jumper hasn’t really come around yet, but he’s compensated by taking it to the rim. Over and over and over again. Much like Goran Dragic, Butler has a way of dislodging defenders with a subtle shoulder check:

Butler hasn’t been as successful at the rim as he has been in other seasons. His 64 percent clip inside of three feet is the lowest mark he’s posted since the 2016-17 season. However, the sheer volume of his drives — 15.5, via Second Spectrum — is the highest it’s ever been. He averaged 19 drives this past week and averaged 8.3 free throw attempts as a result.

Those drives do come at a cost. He’s been exhausted at the end of games and has said as much. Dead legs aren’t going to help an already-shaky jumper get back to form, particularly the pull-up jumpers he likes to take. For now, Butler is willing his way to the hoop — and willing the team to close wins.

3. Struggles from the shooters

I wrote my formal apology to Tyler Herro last week. So of course, he proceeded to forget how to shoot. His three games since that piece: 8.7 points on 10.7 shot attempts, and a 25 percent clip from deep to boot.

Clearly this is my fault.

The shooting will come around; he’s taking mostly good shots, the footwork is fine. There seems to be a slight hitch in his gather, but that may be some slight fatigue-based compensation. If we could revisit Friday’s contest against the Lakers, there is one thing that seems worth discussing.

The handle, while improved, isn’t quite there yet.

Avery Bradley has his shortcomings as a defender – small, isn’t super versatile because of it, whatever – but he’s an absolute menace at the point of attack. Bradley routinely picked up Herro 70-or-so feet from the basket to disrupt his rhythm and it mostly worked.

Herro didn’t display the burst needed to get by. His go-to escape move, a spin to either direction, was a bit sloppy and didn’t create the separation necessary to reset. This was probably his best rep of the night:

That will get cleaned up over time, though the degree of that cleaning-up process is still up in the air.

On the other end of the spectrum is Duncan Robinson. While he hasn’t had a blip in shooting – he canned 51.6 (!) percent of his threes on 10.3 attempts – there has been a drop in quality on the other end. Robinson had been surprisingly “fine” on that end, but the clips of him failing to track shooters or navigate screens are starting to mount.

These are both missed shots, but the process here … isn’t great:

As long as he continues to shoot like a literal Splash Brother, it’ll be easier to overlook his defensive shortcomings. If that shooting starts to slip, his productivity on defense will need to rise to compensate.

Set Play of the Week

Role Reversal

Miami’s post-split action has been giving teams fit all year long. This rep is no different:

The play kicks off with Bam Udoh – er, Adebayo – and Tyler Herro crossing paths. Herro sets a screen for Adebayo, hoping to create an easy bucket underneath. It doesn’t work, so the action continues. This time, Herro sets a down screen for Kelly Olynyk, putting the defense in quite a bind.

Do you fight over the screen and risk Herro springing free for a three?

Do you switch it and create a small-on-big mismatch for Olynyk?

The correct answer: there is no correct answer.

That’s the beauty of using guards that can shoot as screeners in actions like this. Unless you have a switch-y big man, there’s no real way to prevent a mismatch from being created. This is straight from the Steve Kerr handbook, with Herro operating as the Heat’s version of Stephen Curry.

Herro sets a darned good screen The defense freezes, allowing Olynyk to spring open. Adebayo delivers the goods, as he has been all year from that spot.

Guts Check: Put Away the Trade Machine

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won at Toronto 121-110
  • Lost at Boston 112-93
  • Won vs Washington 112-103
  • Won in OT vs Chicago 110-105 
    • 3rd in the Eastern Conference, 17-6 .739

Put away your trade machines.

I know you love a good transaction, but now is not the time. Have the guts to be patient.

Until you see this group lose a handful of games in a short window or struggle for a month straight, the Heat is inclined to stand pat. As they should be. No Kevin Love proposals please. Even Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are no longer viable by my view.

Everything is going exactly to plan.

The goal was to have one star attract another star with the help of a core group that checks all the boxes. The ascension of Bam Adebayo and inevitable rise to stardom from Tyler Herro will make this Heat group as desirable as any Heat roster that went into free agency with max space to offer a superstar ever (aside when they had space to offer three maxes, but let’s exclude that for the rest of eternity)

Pat Riley is going to keep eyes open on the trade market. Particularly for any star players that may quietly get shopped and eventually shake loose that would accelerate this build. Or maybe they look at adding a win now vet that doesn’t compromise 2021. That said, reality remains that the type of player worthy of compromising 2021 flexibility is not likely to become available. Any option is more stop gap than gap fill.

This is about setting the table.

Head into summer 2021 free agent meetings with Riley & staff, flanked by Jimmy, Bam & Tyler. Nunn, Robinson, Silva, Okpala all ready to contribute. A core group that exudes this type of connection is noticed by other players.

I can tell you definitively that it was noticed by Bradley Beal.

He won’t be the last player to have that imprint left upon them.

While the urge will always be there to consider names like Kevin Love, Blake Griffin or Chris Paul being potential “missing pieces”, this urge will only intensify the better this team plays. Ignore it, suppress it until it dissolves.

Riley has been known to push all his chips to the middle the table, so any star that even becomes remotely available must be considered. I get that. But consider Riley’s chips not quite stacked high enough yet for him to go all in.

The notion that a Giannis-Miami pairing would end up being the best situation for the best player in the league is still a speculative theory all things considered.

By next December it may appear a no brainer.

The other no brainer? Trusting this organization to strike when the time is right in this scenario.

For now, enjoy THIS team. If you have the guts.

It’s Time To Stop Doubting Tyler Herro

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[steps to podium]

[taps mic]

Hi, hello, is this thing on?

[Adjusts collar]

My name is Nekias Duncan, and I was wrong about Tyler Herro.

It’s typically unwise to have any definitive opinion on rookies, but this one seems pretty obvious.

To say that I was vocal about my displeasure of his selection would be an understatement. There may or may not have been discussions of a shift to Hawks coverage.

I made the mistake of hammering home Herro’s weaknesses and underselling his strengths. I didn’t take his “prove the haters wrong” ethos seriously enough; it’s especially egregious for two reasons.

1) This feature from Bleacher Report’s Mirin Fader laid out Herro’s background beautifully. This isn’t your typical bookmark-a-tweet-for-motivation guy; he’s shrugged off death threats and vandalism from a young age.

2) After the brief stint of mediocrity the Heat went through, and the success of the Bam Adebayo pick specifically, the Heat zeroing in on Herro the way they did should’ve been a clear sign that they saw something special.

That didn’t stop me from being upset with the pick. The takes I let fly on draft night were laughable at best, cringeworthy at worst. They’re going to be laugh fodder for quite some time. Honestly, it’s well deserved.

It’s so well deserved, that I’m going to make the job a little easier for everyone. I took the “pleasure” of listening back to the draft night pod I did and transcribing everything I said. I will not bore you with all of the “come on, mans” , but I will gladly own up to the biggest things I got wrong.

Think of this piece as The Laughing Pad instead of The Launching Pad.

(Direct quotes in bold, analysis underneath.)

Like, he hasn’t shown – I mean he went to Kentucky, so obviously that plays a part – but he hasn’t shown flashes of being a real creator. So I don’t understand what they saw.

For the sake of clarity, it’s important to note that I was speaking through the lens of potential star potential. From the limited amount of Kentucky I had seen at the time, Herro did not seem like a true break-you-down prospect,

Of course, my view lightened a bit once I saw more of him. That led to me writing this piece on his offensive upside, and then somehow coming away more impressed after Summer League play.

Tyler relocates well and can hit spot-ups. He’s not flinging off-balance threes like Wayne [Ellington] was. And maybe he gets there when he improves the footwork, but if that’s the upside, it doesn’t make sense. Miami needs shot creation – sign a shooter.

Technically true! Herro isn’t hitting threes with the finesse that Ellington did. He does a much better job of establishing his base, and is better shooting off the dribble than Ellington was.

 

Herro has shown comfort getting himself out of jams, favoring a mean right-to-left stepback jumper. Via Synergy, he’s generating 0.96 points per possession on off-the-dribble jumpers, placing him in the 63rd percentile. Second Spectrum’s tracking data has Herro at 15-of-28 (53.6 percent) on stepbacks, with a 4-of-10 clip (40 percent) on stepback triples.

Also, it turns out the Heat didn’t need to sign a shooter. Duncan Robinson (42.5 percent on 6.5 attempts) has more than filled that slot.

If you’re going to take a flier, take the flier on KPJ (Kevin Porter Jr.) and hope that he can create.

Here’s how these two stack up in isolation + pick-and-roll creation.

Porter Jr: 64 possessions, 47 points (0.734 PPP), 23-of-64 from the field (35.9 percent)

Herro: 108 possessions, 81 points (0.75 PPP), 32-of-84 from the field (38.1 percent)

Neither are great marks, and it’s worth noting the difference in .. um .. team quality. The fact remains that Herro has been better, and the gap widens (at least statistically) once you factor in passing (0.924 PPP vs 0.787 PPP).

If you’re gonna take a 6’5ish guard that can do some stuff, take Nickeil Alexander-Walker if you’re gonna go that route. At least he can create some in pick-and-roll. He’s not a great athlete, but he has some length.

More numbers, shall we?

NAW: 21-8-7 per 100 possessions, 32/32/69 shooting split, 0.856 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Herro: 24-7-3 per 100 possessions, 45/39/83 shooting split, 0.914 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Oddly enough, both players entered this year’s draft with finishing questions. Herro’s lack of length was harped on by yours truly, while NAW’s lack of vertical pop was a cause for concern.

Through the early portion of the season, Herro has been below average (52.8 percent at the rim, via Synergy), while NAW has been outright dreadful (39.5 percent).

As much as I got harped on for the Brandon Clarke love because of his 6’8 wingspan, Brandon Clarke is the second best athlete in the draft. Who *also* has ridiculous IQ defensively. So at least there’s a path to making that work. What does Tyler do [on that end]?

Rebound. The answer is rebound.

There are other things to note. Herro has been mostly fine as a positional defender. He’s generally where he needs to be off the ball, tracks pretty well over screens, and has the dig-and-recover sequence down when enemies attack the basket.

His ability to end possessions is just not something I saw coming. “Gritty” is generally a white-flavored buzzword, but he genuinely doesn’t mind mixing it up for tough boards.

 

 

Herro’s 14.1 defensive rebound rate outpaces notable guard rebounders like James Harden (13.8) and Jimmy Butler (13.1), and is right in the wheelhouse of Memphis Grizzlies wunderkind (and big man) Jaren Jackson Jr. (14.4).

Do the Heat want to throw Herro on elite scorers with regularity? Probably not. Practice stories and an impressive showing against Devin Booker aside, Herro does struggle to contain quicker guards off the dribble.

But were his defensive shortcomings a bit overblown? Probably so. He’s smart, physical, and helps the team end possessions. The flash plays are nice when they come, but he’s ultimately done his job.

Oh … I would take Rui [Hachimura if available]. Again, the bar is the floor, but also .. man that’s tough. If Tyler had an average frame, then you could say ‘well Kentucky normally compresses their guys’ roles and he can already shoot some, so maybe he has some hidden playmaking ability and he can be fine on defense.’ But the guy has a 6’3 wingspan. Like, he has alligator arms.

1) OOF.

2) Even with the caveat that Rui has been a little better than expected, that’s … oof. The phyiscal tools are tantalizing, but he’s been a not-at-all-insignificant part of the Wizards’ historically bad defense.

3) Every single one of those Kentucky caveats were true, even with the “alligator arms.”

I did this with Bam, so obviously I *want* to be wrong. But, like, nah. This is different than the Bam pick.

It’s quite different from the Bam pick for a very specific reason: Herro has shut me up with a lot more force.

Adebayo has been incredible this season, placing his name firmly in talks for the Most Improved Player award, the Defensive Player of the Year award, and the All-Star team.

Herro has been, at the absolute worst, the third best rookie in this year’s class. Winning Rookie of the Year isn’t out of the question, especially if Zion Williamson doesn’t see the floor much this season.

The Heat have nailed back-to-back end-of-the-lotto picks and I didn’t like either of them at the time of their selection. Either I’m an incredible jinx — maybe! — or this organization deserves a lot more credit (and faith) for their ability to scout.

It’s probably the latter.

Season Ticket: This Miami Heat start is real… and spectacular

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You know it when you see it.

You know it when you hear it.

And we’ve seen it. We’ve heard it. We’ve seen how these Miami Heat players have interacted with each other since training camp in West Palm Beach, or even prior, when the group workout clips started circulating on social media, including the ones of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, the new Heat heartbeat welcoming the fresh-faced, drippy prodigy to the NBA and team fraternity, no pledging or hazing required. We’ve heard how the front office and coaching staff has spoken about this collective, about how selfless they are, about how connected they are, about how hungry they are, about how versatile they are, about how precocious they are. “This has a chance to be one of my favorite groups,” a Heat official who has been with the team for more than two decades told me in early September. “Just watch. People are underestimating us. This has a chance to happen fast.”

And we believed them. Or at least I believed them. I even put your money where my mouth was, suggesting you go over the 43 wins that the Las Vegas oddsmaker set on the futures table, suggesting you look seriously at Bam Adebayo as a Most Improved Player candidate, Erik Spoelstra as a Coach of the Year option and even Butler as a Most Valuable Player darkhorse. My co-hosts on Five on the Floor took a little more time, perhaps. But they came around too. They saw what I saw and kept saying — if you give Spoelstra an less cluttered roster full of motivated players with a defensive mindset, special things can happen.

So we’re not surprised about this, not completely, not on the Five on the Floor podcast. Impressed, but not surprised. Not that it’s gone well. This well? Starting 17-6, after a 110-105 overtime victory against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday evening, giving them as more wins than 25 of 29 other teams? Winning all 10 home games, after underperforming badly at American Airlines Arena in recent seasons? Losing only to teams that are currently in the playoffs, with all but Minnesota well over .500 entering Sunday’s play? Doing this while shelving more than $25 million (James Johnson, Dion Waiters) for assorted issues; while missing two of the three primary ballhandlers (Justise Winslow, Goran Dragic) of late; while relying on two rookies (Herro, Kendrick Nunn), one 19 and one undrafted, as two of their five leading scorers; while counting on two more projects (Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva) in the rotation?

Posting the same record through 23 games as the LeBron-Wade-Bosh Big Three Heat did in each of their final three seasons together, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14? And two games better than that Hall of Fame-stacked squad did in its first season together (2010-11)? A game better than the Heat started in Shaquille O’Neal’s first season (2004-05)? Four games better than the Heat started after acquiring Alonzo Mourning (1995-96)? And, of course, nine games better through 23 than during Dwyane Wade’s rookie season?

OK, maybe a little.

But it’s real.

This is what the Heat are — or at least, this is the floor. There likely won’t be a championship, not yet, but there won’t be a collapse. Barring a major injury, something more significant to a primary contributor than what has caused Winslow and Dragic to miss 18 combined games, with both soon to return, this team should continue to improve as the season progresses. There’s simply no reason they shouldn’t. Yes, there will be bumps. Every season, every roster, has them. The Big Three teams had them. So why wouldn’t these guys? We’ve already seen Nunn encounter some, especially on the road against better opponents, with prepared teams taking advantage of his tunnel vision. We’ve seen Adebayo pass when he should shoot; that played a prominent role in his seven turnovers Sunday, the only nit in his otherwise superlative statline. We’ve seen Butler struggle more with his jumpshot than in recent seasons. And we haven’t seen enough of Winslow and Butler together to know whether, offensively, it can really work.

But you know what else we’ve seen?

Trust in each other.

Passion under pressure.

Growth individually, and together.

And winning at less than their best.

Take Sunday. Yes, take it. Embrace it, in all of its ugliness. Choppy. Uneven. Unsightly at times. And yet, when it mattered, when the customary closer (Butler) had lost his legs, when his shots were coming up short — when he was already so weary that he would spend several minutes slumped in his locker stall later, acknowledging his exhaustion — he turned to a kid who was born exactly one year prior to George W. Bush’s first inauguration. A kid most of Miami didn’t want Pat Riley to select, even with John Calipari’s endorsement and that Kentucky pedigree. A kid who wore the loudest outfit on draft night but speaks to media members in the quietest voice. A kid who has that ideal combination of conformity and cockiness, who wants to work and then work his opponents over. A kid who won over a demanding, star teammate in a way that three former No. 1 overall picks (guys named Towns and Wiggins and Simmons) clearly did not in previous stops.

A kid who scored 27, including three three-pointers at critical times after a slow start to the night, including 16 of the Heat’s final 18, including 11 in overtime.

“You saw in college, with the biggest moments, that’s where he was playing his best,” Spoelstra said Sunday of Herro. “If your max player trusts you in these moments….”

That Butler does. Implicitly.

“We’ve got a lot in common, to tell you the truth,” Butler said. “But more than anything, I respect the way he works, the way he carries himself.”

Their big/little brother bond is obvious. Been obvious. And that trust has been remarkable and refreshing.

But not more than Herro trusts himself. He trusts his shot like he trusts his wardrobe. As he told me when I asked in camp who has the most “drip” in the NBA: “I do.” Who’s second? “No one’s close.”

Sunday, the Bulls weren’t close enough to him on the floor. Not after Butler drew the defense. Not after scrambles.

Not when it counted.

It looked like he was seeking those opportunities. To be the hero or goat.

At 19.

Sunday night, he stood in front of the locker stall that LeBron and Shaq once did.

“Uh, yeah,” Herro said. “I don’t shy away from taking the big shot. I have a lot of confidence. So down the stretch, Jimmy trusts me with the ball. He got me it in good spots, and I knocked down a couple of threes.”

Matter of fact.

Surprised the Bulls weren’t closing out harder?

“They had to pick their poison, either Jimmy or me,” Herro said, with a hint of a laugh.

Then he remembered he’s a rookie. On a team like this. Where everyone praises. Everyone trusts. No one steps out too much, drip or no drip.

“… Or… there were three other guys on the floor with us, that will hurt them too. So they had to pick their poison.”

Some fans picked up and left when LeBron did. It got too difficult. Too many Henry Walkers and Danny Grangers. Too little Bosh. Too many poor offseason decisions, at least during 2016 and 2017. Too much heartache when Wade bolted, at least until he returned. Too little that was real, even that 30-11 finish to 2016-17 that duped the front office even more than it did the public. But this organization never stays down too long. It reinvents. It reinvigorates. It reminds you of what it has been, and likely will be again. Sunday, a kid who looks nothing like Wade brought back memories of how Wade introduced himself way back in 2003, with moments like these, moments that let you know he was different, and his teams would be different. Moments that made you look forward to years. Moments that confirm what we’ve been seeing and hearing since the spring and summer, when the moves all started to make sense — and if you started paying attention then, or even now, you picked a damn good time to come back.

Ethan J. Skolnick has covered the Miami Heat since 1996, and now hosts the Five on the Floor podcast.