Ever since LeBron spurned Miami for Wasteland – Cleveland, HEAT fans have been desperate for the NEXT move. Even new signings are immediately viewed as “tradeable assets” to acquire the next guy. As children of Riley, we’re born and bred with the mindset of always keeping an eye on the future. We all fall victim to the trade machine. December 15 is practically a holiday on Twitter as we flood our timelines with hypothetical “who says no?” trade scenarios.
Except, this season feels different. This current HEAT roster has quickly captivated the hearts of local fans and the attention of the national media. The energy, the selflessness, the toughness – THIS is what Miami Heat basketball is supposed to look like. For the first time since 2014, HEAT fans are living in the moment. Don’t believe me? Look for yourself….
#HEAT fans I need your help on this poll for an article – PLEASE ANSWER & RT….
Are you more interested/focused on potential future transactions or simply interested/focused on the current #HEAT roster?
Not since 2003 have the Miami Heat had such a lovable squad. This is the most cohesive HEAT team I can remember in years! It’s not only that the pieces fit perfectly, it’s the way they play together.
This Heat team has been wild so far in a very specific way:
They don’t really seem to *need* anyone in order to succeed at the most basic level: outscoring opponents
Every single Heat player has a + net rating and there is no player where the Heat are losing when he’s off
And that motto we love to throw around that defines our CULTURE – the hardest-working, best conditioned, most professional, unselfish, toughest, meanest, nastiest team in the NBA– is exactly how we would define the 2019-2020 HEAT team. It’s never been more evident than Wednesday night when Duncan “SNIPERSON” displayed his lethal stroke from downtown, draining NINE three pointers against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Every guy on the HEAT bench was on their feet with excitement as the ball went through the net.
What other franchise can take G-League players and turn them into legit NBA rotation pieces or, in the case of Kenrick Nunn, potential stars? Fans can talk themselves into believing they have a chance with any team, but this year, the Eastern Conference is truly up for grabs. And at a time when most HEAT fans are usually banging the table for Riley to work his trade magic, we are instead collectively rooting to see what this group as currently constructed can accomplish in the playoffs.
HEAT fans have patiently waited for a team to take the reins and lead the CULTURE into the franchise’s next phase, the A.W. (After Wade) years. And Jimmy Butler is the perfect leader for this franchise at this moment in time.
Asked @JimmyButler why he is smiling every day here…
And don’t look now, but Chris Silva is making that 30 on his back look more like 40 with his Udonis Haslem-esque warrior mentality. No question, this team is likely another move away from contending for a championship. But our biggest strengths are our depth and team unity. One trade can completely blow that up. We’ve seen what a difference one guy can make (Hey Hassan!) on team morale. Instead, fans are rallying behind a group of guys that are more focused on winning than personal stats. A group of guys that are looking to make plays for their teammates instead of themselves. A group of guys that will scratch and claw their way for every last rebound. And a group of guys that genuinely love playing for each other.
The best thing about this Heat team so far this season:
Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.
The NBA still hasn’t noticed what’s brewing on Biscayne.
Save for the sporadic cursory glances, no one has bothered taking much stock of the new-look Miami Heat. For the select few who have, their opinions on the team that Pat Riley built land somewhere between skepticism and outright pessimism.
Jimmy Butler says he’s as happy as ever after finding a spot that fits his personality. Doubters wonder how long the honeymoon will last.
The stat sheet regards the Heat as all-caps ELITE: tied for fourth in winning percentage, third in net efficiency. Power rankers shrug their shoulders and say, ‘Yeah, but who’ve they played?’
Miami landed eighth on the most ESPN rankings, while Royce Young quipped, “The schedule set them up for a three-game winning streak.”
Grand scheme, sure, the Heat get noting for playing a dominant month of basketball. But why have hoops heads decided this is the one early-season storyline no one needs to trust?
Is it really all because Butler had some messy divorces in his past? What if it just took him a few tries to find his perfect match? If at first you don’t succeed, right?
Remember, the good vibes started long before the win column ballooned.
“I feel that the way they go about everything here is the right way,” Butler said at his introductory press conference. “That’s what I am banking on. That’s why I am here.”
He might be a four-time All-Star now, but he’s also the player who went unranked out of Tomball (Texas) High School, who opened his college career at Tyler Junior College, who wasn’t selected until 30th overall in the 2011 draft (which he now leads in win shares) and who didn’t average double-digit points until his third NBA campaign.
His story of overcoming impossibly long odds is one shared by nearly everyone inside of this organization.
Goran Dragic was a second-round pick in 2008 and didn’t become a full-time starter until his age-26 season. Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Udonis Haslem and Chris Silva were all undrafted. Even head coach Erik Spoelstra is an old video coordinator who worked his way up through the ranks, and despite winning a pair of titles, he still seems underrated.
Even the “blue chips” aren’t what they seem.
Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were lottery picks, but neither landed in the top 10. Adebayo was recently left off a Team USA team that had trouble attracting and retaining top talents. The Ringer graded the Herro selection as a C and questioned if he’d even stay on the floor. Justise Winslow, the 10th pick in 2015, has critics within the Heat’s own fanbase.
“Everybody is an underdog here,” Butler said at training camp. “If they’re not, they go about it as if they are.”
What if that shared mentality and willingness to work has bonded this locker room tighter than any he’s been involved in? What if he’s found something here that he was missing elsewhere?
Or, and I know this is a novel idea, what if we don’t play armchair psychologist and instead hear Butler express his contentment and just take his word for it until we have a current, valid reason to do otherwise?
His happiness can change everything. It already looks like it has.
He looks completely comfortable in his pass-first, score-when-needed role, and so does everyone else in the offense. This team has the Association’s second-highest assist percentage and no real natural point guard on the roster. Butler’s impact is real, and it’s spectacular, and doubting it only for the fear it might eventually get rocky seems like a miserable way to live.
As for the schedule-obsessed skeptics, good-to-great teams have long established that standing by beating up on bottom-feeders. Last season, the champion Toronto Raptors barely had a winning record against .500-or-better teams (22-20); the 50-win Utah Jazz (20-21) and 49-win Boston Celtics(17-25) were in the red.
Good-to-great clubs handle the teams they should and more or less tread water against anyone else. That’s exactly the model Miami has followed to this point. It has a perfect 7-0 mark against losing clubs—one of only four undefeated records against them—and a 3-3 mark against .500-plus teams, counting wins over Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks and James Harden’s Rockets.
ESPN’s RPI says the Heat have faced the eighth-toughest schedule so far. Why, exactly, is their path behind held against them?
Maybe people are just running out of other reasons to doubt. The absence of a second star seemed worrisome until Bam Adebayo blossomed into that role. The longer guys like Nunn, Herro and Robinson keep rolling, the harder it is to see the rug being pulled out from underneath them.
And let’s not forget, Winslow has barely broken a sweat with this group. If he can find a way to coexist with Butler—at this point, doesn’t Spoelstra deserve the benefit of the doubt?—this team’s potential climbs even higher.
Already, though, the outlook has changed. The Heat had a chance to be pretty good; they’ve made themselves great instead.
“We can’t keep surprising people,” Butler said after the latest win, the team’s third double-digit triumph in a row. “We’re for real. I don’t think anybody wants to play against us, and that’s the way we want to keep it.”
The Heat aren’t going away, regardless if the rest of the hoops world notices or not.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2019-11-05-at-7.27.19-AM-615x400.jpg400615Zach Buckleyhttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgZach Buckley2019-11-22 16:30:002019-11-22 16:30:00The Mourning Edition: The Ceiling Has Blown Through The Roof
Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.
Since we last touched base:
Won vs Detroit 117-108
Won at Cleveland 108-97
Won vs New Orleans 109-94
Taking Care of Business
Last week we discussed the need for the Heat to emerge 6-1 or 5-2 in this next 7 game stretch. A 3-0 undefeated week has them tracking nicely to accomplish that feat.
And wow, has this been fun to watch. The ball zipping around on offense, finishing possessions with swished threes, forcing turnovers that lead to more buckets, has made this 9-3 more entertaining than maybe 9-3 should feel. The team just looks, interacts and performs as cohesively as any group has since the Big 3 era. That’s a big deal.
Every Heat official you talk to loves the collective makeup of this group. That likely won’t prevent the front office from making an upgrade. But they will be cautious about it, I believe.
Last week, we saw quality contributions from pretty much everyone. Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo – the list goes on and on. Actually, wait a minute, do not pass go, click on this link to read The Launching Pad by Nekias Duncan. No, seriously, abort this column and read TLP. We are lucky to have him breaking down Miami Heat basketball. Nekias is a beast.
I think we can all agree that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been the two main pillars for this team so far. That is such a welcome sight. It can be argued that this duo has been the most effective two-way duo in the entire Eastern Conference.
Jimmy & Bam lowkey been the most impactful duo in the East so far this szn. 🚫🧢
Conceptually at least, Justise Winslow has been the most viable candidate to complete a trio that would complement each other gracefully.
As we know, (even though it feels like we really don’t know very much) Justise Winslow is still out with a concussion. This has forced others to continually step up.
There is something to be said for the Heat’s early season reality. The third wheel has been unpredictable moment to moment, never mind game to game. It has always been someone different depending on the matchups. One night it’s Nunn, next it’s Dragic. Tyler Herro here, Chris Silva there.
This feels more sustainable when you consider it isn’t solely based on one player carrying the load or the team shooting the lights out at an unbelievable clip. I know it sounds cliché but this is a prototypical team effort. Amazing what happens when one of the best coaches in the league gets a roster that fits.
Player to Watch
Duncan Robinson is further along than I think any of us could have predicted. Uneven play to start the preseason and the first week of the regular season had Robinson as a player that many Heat fans called to be removed from the rotation.
Team sources have maintained to me since before Opening Night that they were prepared to find minutes for Robinson, they see him as a player that can have a Jason Kapono like gravitational pull that helps surrounding scoring threats.
Although he may never get to the 49-50% from deep as Kapono did in his short Heat stint, Robinson is currently attempting double the amount per game (5.8 v. 3.1) and shooting 54% from the corners. If Robinson can provide the type of gravity that players like Kapono and Ellington have in years past, on a team that shares the ball like this one, it may prove to be an indispensable safety valve all season.
Jimmy Butler is averaging 13.4 assists per 48 minutes while this lineup is on
Bam Adebayo is averaging 7.8 assists per 48 minutes while this lineup is on
Duncan Robinson has a 67.7% TS and is the 2nd leading scorer while this lineup is on (Nunn has scored the most)
In 28 MPG last week Robinson averaged 12.3 ppg, going 9/21 from behind the arc (42.9%). He also chipped in on the defensive side, netting 4 steals which was more than his total in the first 10 games combined.
Currently on pace to come within striking distance of 200 3PT FGM, it’s safe to say Robinson has seized his increased minutes in the absence of Winslow and others.
The Philly Game
Between now and the next edition of GUTS CHECK, Jimmy and the Heat will visit the Sixers. I cannot wait for that game. Mark your calendars folks, Saturday November 23rd at 7:30 pm EST. Process versus Culture in the flesh.
Jimmy versus a hostile Philly crowd, with this group of dogs behind him. Easily the early favorite for the game Heat fans are looking forward to most thus far.
Who knows, maybe Jimmy will also put in a good word with Embiid as a fit next to Bam right?
How on earth did that game not get scheduled for national television? Flex schedule anyone?
This is why the NBA needs a flex schedule. Tons of interesting teams around the league and we are being force fed GSW and their G-League all-stars. https://t.co/vr2YCJKnCy
Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.
The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)
• Record: 9-3 (3-0, 2nd in the East)
• Offensive Rating: 107.7 (113.6)
• Defensive Rating: 101.1 (102.7)
• Net Rating: plus-6.5 (plus-10.9)
• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.7 (64.4)
• Pace: 102.15 (97.5)
• Time of Possession: 14.3 seconds (14.6)
Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)
Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard
• Minutes: 11
• Offensive Rating: 117.4
• Defensive Rating: 60.0
• Net Rating: plus-57.4
• True-Shooting Percentage: 68.7
• Pace: 107.66
The Big Number: 1.434
Roughly 1/8 of the way through the NBA season, the Miami Heat remain one of the best shooting clubs in the league. They rank fourth in three-point percentage (38.4), and have five players shooting well above league with moderate-or-better volume.
Meyers Leonard is shooting a blistering 61.9 percent from deep, which makes it even more perplexing that he’s only averaging 1.9 attempts on the year. The man took four (4) threes this week!
What makes the shooting scary is that it’s come on the back of good looks. The Heat are the most efficient team in the NBA on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. They’re generating 1.434 points per possession on those looks via Synergy. A 48.8 percent clip on those shots pace the league by nearly three percentage points.
Your primary culprit: Duncan Robinson. He’s an absurd 19-of-26 (!!!) on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. When you combine that with his mostly-fine defense, it’s becoming harder to make the case that he should return to the bench when Justise Winslow returns.
Weekly Trends
1. Kendrick Nunn keeps shooting
Nunn has had an absolute roller coaster of a season so far. He’s been historic, borderline unplayable, and sneaky good all in a three-week stretch. Just look at these splits.
First five games: 22.4 points on 17.0 shots, 52/48/100 shooting split
Next four games: 9.3 points on 11.0 shots, 34/19/60 shooting split
Last three games: 21.7 points on 17.0 shots, 51/43/80 shooting split
If there’s been one source of consistency from Nunn, it’s been his willingness to take shots when he feels they’re makable.
To his credit, Nunn has been one of the NBA’s best volume pick-and-roll threats. Among 55 players that have logged at least 90 pick-and-roll possessions (passes included), Nunn ranks 9th in efficiency (1.065 PPP). He’s ahead of guys like LeBron James (1.052), D’Angelo Russell (1.032), Kyrie Irving (1.008), James Harden (1.0), and Trae Young (0.983).
Nunn has the profile of a three-level scorer so far. He’s converting roughly 65 percent of his shots at the rim, 47.4 percent of his middies, and 41.2 percent of his above-the-break threes. His ability to make shots with forward momentum — pull-up jumpers, floaters, hang-in-the-air layups — have made him difficult to defend with a head of steam, especially in transition.
Nunn’s a hot-and-cold bucket-getter at this stage. Luckily for the Heat, he’s running hot right now.
2. Point Jimmy
Who the heck is this guy?
When the Heat added Butler, they were expecting to add a bonafide number scoring option. Through nine games, Butler only has one 25-plus point outing under his belt. His 18.4 scoring average, if it holds, would be the lowest it’s been since the 2013-14 season.
Yet, the vibe right now is that his passive style is intentional.
Butler is averaging a career-high 7.2 assists, well above his previous high of 5.5 in 2016-17. He’s made it a point to empower the players surrounding him. It’s why Nunn can afford to shoot until his arms fall off. It’s why Bam Adebayo can stretch himself as an intermediate threat.
Via NBA.com’s tracking data, Adebayo and Nunn are Butler’s favorite targets, receiving 11.7 and 9.8 passes per game from him respectively. Adebayo is converting 61.5 percent of his shots off of Butler passes, while Nunn is boasting a 50/50 shooting split.
Butler is spreading the wealth, and doing so in a myriad of ways. He’s operated as the post hub of Miami’s split action sets, run pick-and-rolls, engineered transition opportunities, and found guys in scramble situations.
At a certain point, Butler will have to assert himself more as a scorer. For now, though, it’s hard to argue with the process or the results.
3. Bam’s off-hand work
Speaking of assertiveness, let’s give a quick hat-tip to Adebayo for doing a little bit of everything on offense. I talked about him in this space last week so there isn’t need to rehash everything. One thing that I missed was his off-hand improvement.
It appears Adebayo has made a concerted effort to become an ambidextrous finisher. Before the Heat’s matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, I made a compilation of all of his left-handed finishes this season.
He only logged one shot attempt with his left on Saturday, a missed dunk off of a lob. Still, a 7-of-15 clip (46.7 percent) for a big that struggled with non-dunk finishes with either hand last year is something to build on.
Set Play of the Week
Runnin’ in circles
It feels like the Heat are adding in a new off-ball screening wrinkle every week. The play I wanted to focus in on looks like their post split action flipped on its head. Instead of going north-south, the Heat are working east-west beyond the arc.
The Heat busted out this bad boy a few times against the Detroit Pistons. The logic is sound: let’s put stress on Detroit’s weak perimeter defenders until they make a mistake.
This play gives off the look of staggered screen action for Robinson (running off two angled picks), but then Robinson curls inside. This serves as the first read. If the Pistons don’t switch, that will leave Luke Kennard trailing Robinson, and Bruce Brown following Nunn over a screen from Adebayo. With Nunn being a plus-shooter, Andre Drummond would have to stay high to take away a pull-up triple.
Of course, the Pistons switch, so the Heat flow into part two of the action. Nunn is still scheduled to come off the Adebayo screen, but with the switch and Kennard’s positioning, he isn’t able to come off cleanly. But thanks to Kennard essentially face-guarding, Nunn is able to reverse course, creating a 2-on-1 on the other side of the screen.
Brown sees the Nunn-Robinson screen coming and tries to call out the switch, but by then it’s too late. A push-off from Robinson creates an extra foot or two of space. Butler feeds Robinson, and he drills the bomb.
Welcome to the first dispatch of The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.
The Miami Heat shouldn’t be breathing this easy.
Not when they’re playing faster than any team in franchise history. Not when they’re incorporating a host of newcomers, including every-night starter Kendrick Nunn and second-team-minutes-per-game leader Tyler Herro. Not when they’re already working around a number of absences, both for injury reasons and…let’s just say otherwise.
That’s enough to tire any team out; yes, even one that bills itself as the Association’s “best-conditioned, hardest-working…” you know the rest.
But the Heat aren’t wheezing in the slightest. They keep running opponents off the floor, usually shortly after the opening tip gets tossed.
They’ve already had their most lopsided quarter in franchise history, when they amassed a 46-14 first-frame advantage over a Rockets team on a 60-win pace. That was the most extreme example of their out-of-the-gate sprints, but their early execution has been so precise, world-class surgeons should take not.
Their first-half net efficiency rating is an NBA-best plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions. No one else is clearing double digits, and only three other teams sit north of plus-7.5. Their assist percentage through the first 24 minutes is an absurd 71.3. To put that number in context, the Golden State Warriors paced the category last season at 66.8.
They have top-six efficiency marks on both ends through the first two frames. No other team can make that claim, and only the Milwaukee Bucks—last season’s wins leader—also land in the top 10 on each end.
Obviously, there are two halves to a game, and once we expand to full-game statistics, Miami goes from the NBA’s best team to one of its best. (If you have to downgrade, that’s the best way to do it, right?) The team’s actual net rating is plus-5.8, which is “only” tied for fifth.
That says two things about this squad.
The first is that it can be really, really good. The Heat are playing connected basketball at both ends—score one for #TheCulture—and basically everyone inside of the rotation seems comfortable in his role and capable of executing it.
“I know what championship basketball looks and feels like. I’ve been a part of some championship teams,” Nunn said. “The culture here is just for that.”
This also means the Heat haven’t been as effective after intermission.
Frankly, they’ve rarely needed to be. They’re steamrolling lesser clubs so early that they’re able to sleepwalk Big Three-style through second halves. Battling complacency and boredom—and perhaps tired legs lately with more injuries popping up—Miami hasn’t always stepped on the necks of opponents after knocking them down.
This group is good enough that its first punches are landing with a haymaker’s force, so even two-quarters-and-change of effort and intensity has been good enough to dispatch bottom feeders. The Heat are one of only six teams with an undefeated record against sub-.500 teams.
Still, Miami can’t count on 24-minute routs always being enough, even if it has fired up a few victory cigars at halftime already.
“NBA basketball games are long,” Erik Spoelstra said. “And you have to play all the way through to the end.”
Spo’s right. It’s a tedious, nit-picky process, but letting off the gas too much can prove problematic.
At the same time, it’s the middle of November. That the Heat are even encountering this problem already is incredible, and the fact it’s perhaps emerging as an early focus says everything you need to know about this start.
Finding a killer instinct is one of the final steps of in building a basketball juggernaut. Miami revamped its roster this summer and has reshuffled the rotation already in-season (multiple times over). To be this far ahead of the learning curve at this stage of the game with this many moving parts is a testament to Pat Riley’s vision, Spo’s guidance, Jimmy Butler’s leadership and the culture-infused cohesiveness this core has created.
If the Heat continue staying a step or two ahead, then the ceiling keeps rising and wildest dreams become expectations, if not eventual realities.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Butler-locker-room.jpg9761760Zach Buckleyhttps://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgZach Buckley2019-11-15 19:43:572019-11-15 19:43:57The Mourning Edition: Miami Heat’s Winning Time Is Coming Early
Welcome back to Guts Check. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and an expression of the soul of the Heat fan base. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.
Since we last touched base:
Lost at Denver, 109-89
Won at Phoenix, 124-108
Lost at Los Angeles Lakers, 95-80
Let’s review a few of my key takeaways from last week, and what we should be looking towards.
More Defense, Less Drama
What a difference a week makes?
The 3 game West coast trip left Miami 1-2 on the trip, 6-3 on the season. They had an impressive win in Phoenix sandwiched in between two tough losses in Denver and Los Angeles.
However, the more troubling elements surrounding the team over the last 3 games have less to do with the Heat’s play and more to do with off the court & injury report issues.
Been saying that for the Miami Heat, this is zero tolerance season.
I’m not going to spend too much time rehashing this bizarre scenario, but if it makes you feel any worse this appears to be the punctuation to a handful of similar issues as it pertains to Dion. This is now becoming a trend for Waiters and Miami. The team has been at odds with Waiters for far too long and both parties have been left to throw hands up at each other. This isn’t likely to end in nice fashion.
Justise Winslow appears to have apparently finished a game while concussed and has now been forced to miss several games following that head injury.
Injury aside, Winslow’s uneven start is not viewed as concerning according to a team source. The thought being, time to further build chemistry with Jimmy Butler, improve his shooting and stay healthy will translate to positive momentum for the starting point guard. If the shooting doesn’t come, the Heat are going to have some interesting decisions to make long term.
The injury bug has also hit the Heat by the likes of Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk. (Not to mention Derrick Jones Jr. remains sidelined).
The Heat can’t afford to lose the spacing that Herro and KO provide. Let’s keep our fingers crossed both Herro and Olynyk, listed as questionable tonight, can suit up.
However, all things considered, I think any rational Heat observer would take 6-3 to start this season.
Looking Ahead
The key for this team that will determine if homecourt in the East playoffs is achievable has a lot less to do with how they perform on three game west coast trips and much more to do with how they handle an upcoming 7 game stretch like what lies ahead.
Tuesday Nov 12 vs. Detroit
Thursday Nov 14 at Cleveland
Saturday Nov 16 vs New Orleans
Wednesday Nov 20 vs Cleveland
Friday, Nov 22 at Chicago
Saturday, Nov 23 at Philadelphia
Monday, Nov 25 vs. Charlotte
6-1 should be the goal, 5-2 you also take. However, you can’t stumble through these portions of the schedule. These are the clusters of winnable games that pad the W/L record (especially the home games) to protect against those nights in Denver or other west coast trips in the future.
While aside from Philadelphia, the Heat’s next 7 opponents may lack marquee game appeal, this will be a telling two weeks of Heat basketball.
Player to Watch
Kendrick Nunn is firmly on my radar this week.
Honestly, I still don’t really even know what we have in this kid. How Nunn bounces back from his recent “struggles” relative to his blazing hot start, is probably what I am most curious to find out this week. Defenses are taking advantage of his aggressive style of defense and forcing him to do more than just score.
Nunn has seemingly played his way into the rotation regardless, but the question will become how entrenched as a starter he is, and how effective can he be late in games as teams tighten the screws on defense.
The other player I am anxious to watch this week is Jimmy Butler. Because duh.
As many of those scoring sprees (like we saw in Phoenix) we can witness from a superstar of Butler’s caliber in a Heat uniform, the better. It feels damn good to have a player who can do that type of heavy lifting night in and night out. Plus, he gets respect from the officials.
Yo…..we have a guy who can DO THAT again….feels tremendous
Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.
The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)
• Record: 6-3 (2-2, 4th in the East)
• Offensive Rating: 105.8 (104.7)
• Defensive Rating: 100.6 (102.5)
• Net Rating: plus-5.2 (plus-2.2)
• True-Shooting Percentage: 57.0 (55.4)
• Pace: 103.69 (100.63)
• Time of Possession: 14.2 seconds (14.7)
Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)
Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard
• Minutes: 33
• Offensive Rating: 105.5
• Defensive Rating: 71.2
• Net Rating: plus-34.3
• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.8
• Pace: 105.44
The Big Number: 24
When the Heat finally — I cannot emphasize the word “finally” enough — landed Jimmy Butler, the first on-court thought revolved around what he could bring to a sputtering Heat offense. The pick-and-roll playmaking. His slashing ability. The sweet, sweet, free throws he could generate — and make!
A close second, however, would be his defensive fit with the Heat’s prized pupils, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow. In theory, having those three on the floor would practically guarantee an elite defensive group. That level of athleticism and aggressiveness would be tough for enemy offenses to deal with, no matter the scheme at hand.
Due to injuries and a baby, we haven’t seen this group much. They’ve played just 24 minutes together this season, with 11 of those coming this past week. In those 24 minutes, opponents have scored just 93.9 points per 100 possessions.
The offensive fit is a bit clunky (97.9 points per 100 possessions), though you can attribute that to Winslow and Butler trying to figure things out. It’s way too early to hit the panic button on that front, but it’s something to monitor whenever Winslow returns.
Weekly Trends
1. Bam Adebayo is taking a leap
I’m not sure anyone could’ve predicted this start.
We’ll kick things off with the easy numbers: 12.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 blocks.
Nobody in the league meets all five of those benchmarks. If you drop the search to 12-9-4-1-1, you get to add Giannis Antetokounmpo and Karl-Anthony Towns to the list. That’s it.
The rebounding issue hasn’t been an issue in the way you’d think. The Heat are ending possessions at a higher rate (74.7 defensive rebound rate) with Adebayo on the floor than when he’s off (73.5), but they’re doing a much better job on the offensive glass without him (31.4 vs. 24.0).
Adebayo has looked to stretch his game some. The results have been predictably mixed. He’s starting to go to his face-up game more, finally utilizing his rare blend of ball-handling and strength.
Most bigs just don’t have the lateral quickness to hang with Adebayo. As a result, he’s getting to the line more than ever. His 7.4 free throw attempts are easily a career-high and rank in the top 10 of the NBA. Of course, it would be helpful if he wasn’t converting freebies at the worst clip of his career (59.7 percent, career 71.0 percent).
With more touches, we’ve been treated to more passing flashes. Adebayo isn’t just a good passer for a big; he’s a good passer, period. The Heat have empowered him in more high elbow sets (more on that later) and he’s delivered with some absolute dots.
This level of exploration comes with slight downsides. Adebayo is taking a much larger share of non-rim paint shots than he ever has. His turnovers have predictably spiked. He still leaves a bit to be desired as a post threat against switches, though you hope that comes with more reps.
You take those speed bumps with the production Adebayo is already giving you. That’s before you get into what he’s giving you defensively. He’s been all over the place, folks.
Adebayo has defended post brutes like Karl-Anthony Towns and Nikola Jokic. He’s spent time taking shoulder charges from Giannis. Guards have tried — and mostly failed — to attack him on switches. There isn’t a soul that Adebayo is afraid to defend on an island, and he’s been darn good at the rim so far.
There’s legitimate All-Defensive potential here if he stays healthy.
What do you get when you combine versatile offensive production with All-World defense?
To say that Dragic has settled into the sixth man role would be a bit of an understatement. His 16.7 points are good for second on the Heat, and rank 5th in the NBA among players with at least five bench appearances.
The move was honestly a bit overdue, but that’s unimportant. Dragic is killing opposing second units with elbow-hurling drives and a new-and-improved off-the-bounce game. Through nine games, Dragic is shooting 50 percent (18-of-36) on shots off the dribble, placing him in the 97th percentile via Synergy. He’s transitioning from ball-handler to shooter quicker than he ever has, which has put defenders in uncomfortable positions.
This is a counter that Dragic has quietly been adding over the past couple of seasons. With more defenders ducking under screens in pick-and-roll, he started using his screener as a wall to load up for rhythm threes. Now, he’s shimmying without help. It’s the kind of weapon that will force defenders to fight over; fighting over should give Dragic more advantage situations to work with.
Good for him.
3. Rocking with the rookies
There are nine rookies currently averaging double-digit points. Not only do the Heat have the number two (Kendrick Nunn, 16.6) and number seven (Tyler Herro, 13.1) guys on the list, they’re the only players with a positive net rating.
In short, the primary rooks are punching well above their weight right now. At his best, Nunn has looked like a dynamic pick-and-roll scorer with the ability to disrupt sets at the point of attack on the other end. At Herro’s best, he’s been a shot-making, board-crashing, Devin-Booker-pocket-picking ball of fun.
Whew.
There are negatives of course. Opposing guards have started back-cutting Nunn since they’ve caught on to him jumping routes. He also has a pretty extreme case of tunnel vision; we’ll just have to see how much that improves moving forward.
Herro has predictably struggled against length, particularly at the basket. Via Synergy, he’s shot just 5-of-12 at the rim, and has relied heavily on his floater in the intermediate area. Having the floater in his bag is objectively a good thing. He’s knocked down five of his seven attempts. Having the floater be the only source of success as a driver is where things get murky.
Overall, it’s hard not to be pleased with what those two have provided so far.
Set Play of the Week
HORNS Slice
As mentioned earlier, the Heat have given Adebayo more elbow touches. Most of those have come out of their HORNS alignment. For those unfamiliar, that consists of a ball-handler up top, typically two bigs stationed at each elbow, and the other two players slotted in each corner.
The Heat have been running a quick hitter out of HORNS dubbed “HORNS Slice”, which is designed to get a cutter downhill. Of course, getting a cutter downhill means next to nothing if the ball can’t be delivered in a timely manner.
That’s where Adebayo comes in.
The original plan here is to get Nunn on a cut. However, Butler quickly recognizes that the Nuggets are switching, so he improvs. Instead of setting the screen for Nunn, Butler slips and pins the smaller Jamal Murray on his hip. Adebayo does a great job of feeding Butler on time, and Butler converts a mostly unbothered lay-up.
James Wiseman is one of the most intriguing and versatile big man prospects to be recruited since Anthony Davis. But none of that will matter, because this happened:
The NCAA has ruled Memphis F/C James Wiseman — the possible No. 1 overall pick in 2020 NBA Draft — ineligible, his lawyers said in Memphis.
Just like that, after just one game, a promising college career has been cut short, all because NBA legend-turned-Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway helped Wiseman move to the Memphis area ahead of his hiring.
This is the NCAA, folks.
Personally, I’m sick and tired of seeing players punished because they were given a helping hand en route to their success.
It’s time for a change.
It’s time for the NBA G League to become North American basketball’s official farm league—for journeymen and undrafted prospects alike.
Much has been discussed about lowering and raising the draft eligibility age. Do high schoolers have the right to play in the NBA?
Should they? Should we demand players have more seasoning before entering the league? Is that the responsibility of the player or the drafting team?
What if we decided to fix the NBA Draft process once and for all?
Here are two things, I believe, that should take place first:
The G League officially expands to 30-32 teams in order to accommodate either the NBA’s current makeup or the league’s final expansion—hopefully Seattle and either Las Vegas or Louisville. Each team has an official minor league affiliate.
Now a fully-fledged minor league, the G League opens its doors to players that would, under the NBA’s current draft eligibility rules, be formally ineligible for the NBA Draft.
In this scenario, franchises would be able to draft, then sign a high school-aged (no younger than 17) prospect to the maximum-allowed G League deal, where the prospect (if not eligible right away) will be able to play with the team’s minor league affiliate in order to develop and season until they are able to seamlessly transition into the NBA.
In other words, athletes would be able to choose between playing amateur ball at a certain college on scholarship and playing for a G League at a certain scaled undrafted prospect salary.
As a side-note, let’s assume here that by this point, G League salaries are considerably more lucrative than they currently are (an inevitability with the continued growth of the NBA), so G League players, while not necessarily living in NBA (or WNBA)-styled max-level penthouses, aren’t exactly steeped in poverty either.
This would mean that a talented prospect like RJ Hampton wouldn’t have to move to Australia to play basketball and be paid for his services, nor would someone like Darius Bazley have to take a year off from basketball just to make money.
Players like James Wiseman (or even Zion Williamson last season) would be creating a buzz all around the G League, bringing more fans into areas not normally visited by major franchises.
Under this plan, a prospect’s draft rights could be moved around the league (like any unsigned draft pick’s rights) via trade throughout the G League, but only if traded to another NBA team.
What are the benefits of this idea?
Prospects are able to develop in an NBA-ready environment without being exploited by an already engorged and prohibitively expensive college system here in the United States.
Prospects are taught how to be professionals in an expanded version of the Rookie Transition Program. Prospects are also able to develop under the watchful eye of the franchises that initially drafted them, until they are ready to contribute at a high level.
As a result, players aren’t forced to subject themselves to an outdated collegiate athletic system that only aims to enrich itself, and can instead focus on the very craft to which they’ve consciously dedicated their lives. Think of development squads under international soccer clubs.
I would imagine that this balanced approach might be able to appease both sides of the debate, while growing the league on both ends.
Interest in G League franchises will spike exponentially, and the NBA’s footprint in non-NBA markets will continue to grow with increased attention now dedicated to exciting new talents.
G League markets will be able to get an exclusive glimpse at the NBA’s future prodigies, and parts of the country too far away from NBA venues will be able to fall in love with the game of basketball all over again with competitive play.
Either way, it’s time for the NCAA to stop profiting off the talents of hundreds of talented young athletes.
More on this as it develops…
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Born in Brooklyn and raised in Boca Raton, Ricky J. Marc is an alumnus of the Obama White House and Cornell ParisInstitute, a former Legislative Aide with both the Florida House of Representatives and Florida Senate, and a graduate ofSt. Thomas University with a Juris Doctor and Master of Science in Sports Administration.
He currently resides in Paris, France. Follow him on Twitter @RickyJMarc.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Heat-upside-down-photo.jpg13771404Ricky J. Marc, J.D., M.S.https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgRicky J. Marc, J.D., M.S.2019-11-08 18:48:122019-11-09 12:33:13Wise Man, Dumb Decisions: Developing The G League
We saw Zion Williamson go #1 overall to the New Orleans Pelicans, an injured Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving spurn the New York Knicks for the upstart Brooklyn Nets, reigning NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and Paul George team up with the Los Angeles Clippers, Russell Westbrook depart the Oklahoma City Thunder to reunite with James Harden in Houston, and Team USA finish a disappointing seventh-place at the FIBA World Cup of Basketball.
We are now one month into the season, regular season or otherwise. Even with all of the movement and turmoil, we would be remiss if we didn’t take into consideration the possibility that we might still see some eyebrow-raising deals get done this season that, quite frankly, should happen for the sake of the players involved.
With that in mind, here are five transactions worth expecting at some point this season.
Beantown Love
When Kevin Love first arrived in Cleveland, it was essentially to serve as the Cavaliers’ counterpart to the Miami HEAT’s Chris Bosh for a returning LeBron James. This was something that definitely wasn’t smooth sailing at first, and that is something Love himself would admit to.
However, the acquisition ultimately paid off at the best possible time: Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals, when he was successfully tasked with preventing the unanimously-selected 2016 NBA MVP Steph Curry from sinking a game-tying three, resulting in the city of Cleveland celebrating its first sports championship in more than five decades.
But that was then, and this is now. Three years later, that championship Cavs team is no more, LeBron James has since sought greener pastures in Los Angeles with the Lakers, and Kevin Love now finds himself surrounded by a rebuilding roster of prospects and D-League acquisitions.
Now 31 years old, Love’s days of championship contention, if he remains in Cleveland, are more than likely done for good. For an All-Star caliber player like Love to spend his twilight years on a perennial lottery team would be a waste, and it’s obvious that he still has much more to give.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jDXfMFEJ0g
Why Boston? For starters, Love has been linked with the Celtics dating back to his days with the Minnesota Timberwolves. A deal involving the perennial All-Star’s move to Beantown would allow him to compete at a high level on one of the Eastern Conference’s best teams for the foreseeable future, while serving as a formidable running mate for the likes of Kemba Walker and the improving wing Jayson Tatum.
Though they lost Kyrie Irving and Al Horford this past summer, there are worse things in the world than replacing them with a more teammate-friendly Walker, Love, and continued growth from Tatum.
Lastly, the Gordon Hayward signing has been a failure for Boston, and that’s no one’s fault but circumstance. Hayward, after signing with the Celtics in the summer of 2017, fractured his tibia on Opening Night against the Cavs, and hasn’t been the same player since.
Combine that with the development of Tatum and Jaylen Brown in his absence, along with the continued play of Marcus Smart, and it’s clear that there’s no real place for him anymore in the rotation.
A deal centered around Kevin Love and Gordon Hayward makes sense for both sides, as the Cavs would receive a veteran swingman to aid with the development of their own wings.
Denver: Making A Beal
For those of you that have subscribed to episodes of the Five On The Floor podcast in the last few months, you’re likely well-aware of all the hoopla surrounding Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal and recent reports concerning an extension with his home team. No, he’s not coming to Miami. Womp womp.
Let’s not sugarcoat it—with backcourt mate John Wall not scheduled to return to competitive basketball for another year and Beal currently entering the prime of his career, the Wizards don’t look to be an ideal situation for an All-Star guard of Beal’s caliber to compete at the highest level.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgM0doVU_5A
Why Denver? Without question, the Denver Nuggets look to be a team on the rise right now, revolving around the likes of All-Star center Nikola Jokić and a collection of talented wings. In order to acquire Beal, it will likely take one or more of those wings (plus filler and picks) to satisfy the Wizards’ need to facilitate their continued rebuild.
This is a situation that, we believe, can be as fluid as the sides are willing to let it, so long as Beal makes his desire clear and the front office is willing to work with him. Combining Beal with Jokić and Denver’s remaining depth could immediately transform them into a serious contender in the Western Conference.
Beyond a two-month period in 2017 when Waiters had HEAT fans thinking of another clutch shooting guard as the team went on that now-infamous 30-11 run in the second half of the season, Waiters’ HEAT career has been a disappointment, marred by poor shot selection, a debilitating ankle injury, “Dion Weighters” memes, and sulking at the end of the bench over his perceived role in the offense.
Combine this with the apparent emergence of rookies Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn, as well as the arrival of Jimmy Butler, continued steady play of Goran Dragić, and Justise Winslow’s establishment as the team’s point guard of the future, and it’s clear that Waiters’ time is up with this team.
Why Detroit? From what we’ve seen, Miami’s tried to move Waiters for quite some time now, with no takers. This is no surprise, especially considering the glut of talented or developing guards on many rosters throughout the league. Detroit, however, may become the first, especially after losing starting point guard Reggie Jackson to a back injury this past week. Now is not a good time to lose guard play.
Detroit, a team that has been built to not only qualify, but compete in the postseason, cannot afford to let this injury set them back in an Eastern Conference that could realistically send you to the lottery as early as December (ask the 2016-17 Miami HEAT and the tanking debate that happened then).
OK-CP3: The Point God Stands Pat
Yes. That’s not a typo. We don’t expect Chris Paul to wear another uniform besides his current one this season.
This was the man whose supermax contract (one he helped engineer) made the Russell Westbrook-to-Houston trade possible, traded to Oklahoma City where he played half of a season as a member of the then-New Orleans Hornets in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. His return there is almost poetic.
Why Oklahoma City? Before we condemn CP3 to a life sentence in Basketball Siberia, let’s take a good look at the roster that the Point God-not-named-Justise has been tasked with leading this season. No, seriously, let’s look at it.
At the time of this article, the Thunder are 2-4 after six games. Do we expect some sort of barn-burning run by the Thunder this season? That would depend on CP3’s health and his ability to elevate the level of play of the others around him. Players like Adams, Ferguson, Gallo, SGA, and even the young Bazley could really become something cohesive enough to emulate what the Clippers were able to accomplish last season.
Are we the only ones that are interested in seeing what CP3 could do for Shai, Ferguson, Gallo, and Adams over the course of the season?
It’s still early, but this situation in OKC is worth monitoring.
A Crossover Melodrama: Who Signs First?
Carmelo Anthony’s post-Rockets free agency saga is well-documented, so there’s no need to rehash it here. Jamal Crawford’s, however, is a bit more peculiar.
Granted, Crawford, unlike Anthony, has, alongside Lou Williams, revolutionized the Sixth Man role in the NBA, doing much of his damage from the bench. Crawford has started one (yes, one) game in the last three seasons and a total of 34 out of 438 games in the last five, having last played for the Phoenix Suns.
He’s also 39 years old. Most players don’t last past age 35 in the NBA. Vince Carter, currently aged 42 and in his final season with the Atlanta Hawks, will turn 43 next January.
Could it be that his age is scaring teams off? We suspect that it has more to do with perceived talent than age at this point. If Crawford can’t play, he can’t play.
But he came off the bench last season and averaged 7.9 points and 3.6 assists per game while shooting 39.7% from the field and 84.5% from the free throw line.
Oh, and this happened:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze2tDw4WVZo
Yes, your eyes didn’t deceive you. A 39-year old Crawford really dropped 51 points on the Dallas Mavericks last season. On a recent episode of NBA Hang Time with Sekou Smith, Crawford stated that he’s still ready and willing to contribute to a team that is willing to utilize his services.
While we’re not as optimistic about Anthony’s chances, we believe that Crawford will likely sign onto a team during the latter stretch of the regular season, a likely contending team seeking veteran bench help after the Trade Deadline and All-Star Break. We believe that will surely take place, as it’s hard to pass up Jamal Crawford’s abilities for too long. Even if it could be his final season.
Look out for teams like Milwaukee, Los Angeles (Lakers), Detroit, Houston, Toronto, Dallas, Portland, and perhaps even Denver if our aforementioned Beal deal goes down.
Ultimately, we never truly know what will happen in terms of major transactions this season, but we believe that these five instances are worth looking out for; in the event that they do happen, don’t forget where you heard it first.
Born in Brooklyn and raised in Boca Raton, Ricky J. Marc is an alumnus of the Obama White House and Cornell ParisInstitute, a former Legislative Aide with both the Florida House of Representatives and Florida Senate, and a graduate ofSt. Thomas University with a Juris Doctor and Master of Science in Sports Administration.
He currently resides in Paris, France. Follow him on Twitter @RickyJMarc.
https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/Dion-Waiters-3-1.jpg6671000Ricky J. Marc, J.D., M.S.https://www.fivereasonssports.com/wp-content/uploads/FiveReasonsWebsiteLogo.svgRicky J. Marc, J.D., M.S.2019-11-05 13:28:522019-11-05 13:28:52Five Reasons, Five Deals: Who’s Moving?
