Launching Pad: Half-Court Hiccups, Silva Slips, Duncan Decision

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 11-4 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 108.2 (110.1)

• Defensive Rating: 102.5 (107.7)

• Net Rating: plus-5.7 (plus-2.4)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.0 (60.4)

• Pace: 101.46 (99.0)

• Time of Possession: 14.4 seconds (15.0)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva, Kelly Olynyk

• Minutes: 12

• Offensive Rating: 116.7

• Defensive Rating: 75.0

• Net Rating: plus-41.7

• True-Shooting Percentage: 61.2

• Pace: 92.41

The Big Number: 1.04

I’m here to make the case that the Heat are, at least statistically, the weirdest offensive team in the league. They’re insanely efficient, leading the NBA in true-shooting percentage. They’re also dead-last in turnover rate, giving it up on nearly 19 percent of their possessions. We’ll get into the nuts and bolts of their half-court offense shortly, but they’ve scored at the 7th best per-possession rate in the league.

If it were even possible, the Heat are even more confusing as a transition team. Despite ranking 12th in transition efficiency (110.6 points per 100 transition opportunities), they are the worst team in the NBA in converting buckets after turnovers. Their 1.04 point-per-possession mark is well below the 29th ranked Portland Trail Blazers (1.10).

You would think that kind of thing will regress positively as the year goes on, but it’s hard to put anything past this offense.

Weekly Trends

1. The Heat’s half-court elephant

Before I really dig in here, let me lay out the obvious caveats that have and will be ignored on Twitter.

Yes, the Miami Heat are really good, and have performed as an upper-echelon team in the East to this point.

Regular season games can inform, but it would be malpractice to overreact to one (1) game, particularly one on the road, and especially one on the road after playing less than 24 hours beforehand.

The Heat have been without Justise Winslow, who is, conservatively, their third best player. His versatility on both ends of the floor unlock a lot of what the Heat want to accomplish. His absence hurts in high-leverage match-ups.

Now, with that being said …

[takes a deep breath]

The Philadelphia Sixers showed just how far away the Heat are from being true contenders in the East on Saturday night.

It isn’t so much about the score, though a 113-86 drubbing doesn’t necessarily inspire confidence. There was some randomness at play that made the result look much worse than it was. For instance, the trio of Robinson, Nunn, and Meyers Leonard went a combined 0-of-9 from three. Most of those shots were wide open.

The process was worrisome, though. More specifically: the Heat have been able to flow with a cut-heavy, pass-happy half-court offense that just doesn’t work against teams as lengthy as Philadelphia. The Heat have already struggled with turnovers. When you have Joel Embiid playing eight or so feet off of Bam Adebayo as he operates from the elbow, life becomes much harder.

There’s nothing wrong with an egalitarian approach offensively. There’s value in empowering everyone, and Jimmy Butler has spearheaded that on and off the floor. I do think, however, it’s worth exploring just how much of that approach comes out of necessity.

The Heat’s most frequent pick-and-roll ball-handlers (passes excluded) — Goran Dragic, Nunn, and Butler – have generated 202 points on 240 possessions (0.841 points per possession). That number is simultaneously being brought down by Butler’s rough start (0.629 PPP) and held together by Nunn shooting 50 percent in those situations.

The Heat needed Butler to lead the charge on Saturday, and he couldn’t. Bad nights happen, so it shouldn’t be some sort of huge indictment. But this is the kind of match-up that validates Trade Machine Truthers; the Heat still appear to be a creator short. Winslow’s return will help, but Nunn may be the Heat’s best secondary shot creator. That .. isn’t a great sign through the lens of contention.

2. Catch ’em slippin’

Chris Silva has become a bit of a cult hero. His per-game numbers don’t jump off the page, but it’s hard not to like him when you pay attention. He’s a Dirty Work All-Star, doing his damage as an offensive rebounder and rim challenger.

(He hacks a ton — averaging 9.5 fouls per 36 minutes. That needs to be cleaned up soon.)

Silva sets good screens off the ball, but opts for slipping in pick-and-roll. He changes direction incredibly well, and has a good feel for defensive gaps. Once he senses a crease, he finds the pocket and dives right into it.

 

 

Silva has only registered seven possessions as the roller in pick-and-roll, via Synergy, but has already racked up 13 points. He’s a perfect 5-of-5 from the field as the roll-man, and four of those come via slips.

I’m all for calling him The Big Slipper — a play off of Wilt Chamberlain’s “Big Dipper” moniker.

3. Duncan Robinson’s starting claim

I’ve hinted at it before, let’s get definitive: Duncan Robinson deserves a full-time starting spot.

Robinson’s primary value comes as a spacer. He’s drilling 40.2 percent of his threes on hefty volume (6.5 attempts). Only 10 other players are shooting at least 40 percent on six or more attempts. Robinson is elite as a stand-still threat, but throws defenses for a loop with his off-ball movement. Whether he’s coming off screens or reading ball-handlers, Robinson bends defenses with his ability to relocate.

 

 

As of now, Robinson is still holding his weight defensively. He keeps his head on a swivel and mostly rotates on time. We’ve seen some nice strip/block flashes in transition, which … yeah, I didn’t really see those coming based on what he showed last season.

Robinson’s name appears in three of the Heat’s top five lineups that have been used this season, which is impressive considering that excludes the current starting lineup (plus-13.6). As long as the Heat aren’t blitzed defensively with him on the floor, there’s really no reason to pull him from the lineup.

Set Play of the Week

Going against the grain

Defending shooters in today’s NBA is tough enough. When coaches employ them as screeners (hello, Steve Kerr), defenses are forced into uncomfortable decisions. Fight over? Switch? Pray?

As covered in last week’s edition, the Heat have been getting mileage out of looping their shooters around in hopes of causing confusion. It’s what makes this play even more notable.

 

 

Above, Robinson kicks off the action by wrapping around Tyler Herro. The next option, assuming a switch comes, is for Robinson to screen for Herro before he flares out behind Silva. Fortunately for the Heat, switch doesn’t come.

Robinson’s defender stays attached, which would be fine if Robinson wasn’t now three feet from the rim. Robinson seals him off; Dragic delivers the pass, and the ball goes through the hoop.

It was one of many, many, many examples of the Bulls being exploited defensively. It’s also a window into how much of a pain it is to track shooters in tight spaces.

Canes Collapse Under Weight of Own Ineptitude

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For a program that has chronically underachieved for more than 15 years, it is difficult to categorize something as “rock bottom.” There are so many candidates:

  • Closing out the Orange Bowl with a 48-0 loss.
  • Getting destroyed by Cincinnati on National TV.
  • Losing to Clemson 58-0.
  • Dropping 7 straight to FSU.

Fans of a program with that list of “accomplishments” should not throw the term “rock bottom” around lightly. Particularly when that list is balanced out with a single ACC Coastal title.

And yet it is impossible to argue that the Canes didn’t bottom out on Saturday. Getting beat in an inner city game that should have been a walk in the park is bad enough. That FIU is actually bad this year, even in context, and didn’t play particularly well (they had 14 penalties for 126 yards), makes this even more galling.  To quote Rocky IV, “What started as a joke has turned out to be a disaster.”

I fully acknowledge the danger of quoting Rocky IV because the next trick for Gimmick U might be to head off to the Siberian wilderness and chop wood. What else is left after Turnover Chains, Touchdown Rings, mock wrestling, catchy hashtags, and dancing when down 13 in the 3rd quarter?

 

 

They could actually do football things like switch tempos, game plan, adjust to what the opponents are doing, play smart, use timeouts correctly, and prepare in bye weeks…but that would be conventional. This staff thinks outside the box. They announced the “The New Miami” with a lot of bluster. They knew what was wrong and they could fix it.

The head coach constantly references analytics. The offensive coordinator runs all sorts of misdirection and keeps trying to force plays to the short side of the field. The defensive coordinator repeatedly tries to force the issue when discretion is often advised. Why adjust to the opponent when you’re smarter than them?

The problem? It’s all fraudulent spin. I don’t need the head coach to reference analytics and his own genius when he sees his team down by 16 with 24 minutes left in the game and has no issue with 7 minutes and 10 seconds running off the clock to kick a FG.

The Canes lost the game while driving for a score. That’s the level of ineptitude they reached. They used 30% of the remaining clock to get 3 points. And did so with no urgency, calmly, oblivious to their own incompetence. Do you know how hard it is to have a scoring drive in the 3rd quarter that reduces your win probability by more than 13%?

What we’ve been served is a heaping pile of spin. The problem with spin is that eventually reality cannot be ignored. So, while Diaz might fancy himself an analytics guru, and know that seemingly counter-intuitive things like going for 2 after scoring a TD that cuts the lead from 14 to 8 in the 4th quarter makes statistical sense, the central issue is that he repeatedly finds himself down in the 4th quarter necessitating the execution of the “smart” strategy.

And that’s the problem with outside the box thinking. The box exists for a reason. You have to master the box, become an expert at the box, and then eventually look for inefficiencies within the box to violate the box and gain an advantage.

We experience this in our daily life. You have a daily commute which requires a left turn. And after a few weeks of waiting multiple lights to be able to make that left turn, you realize that it’s actually faster to go an extra block and make 3 right turns in this specific instance. So you do that, and shave some time off your commute. If everyone did that, it would no longer be faster, but you’re taking advantage of an inefficiency. You, of course, would never default to taking 3 right turns instead of a left at every intersection where you needed to go left. It was only after careful observation and analysis that you chose to make 3 right turns, in this specific instance.

This staff is making 3 right turns at every intersection, and talking about how smart they are while we collectively scream at them to make a left turn. Instead of actually being smart, they are doing things they think smart people do.

They did none of the work, instead showing up with the Miami Swagger, but without any of the substance. Swagger was earned in the past through hard work and results. Miami was great, and then celebrated their greatness. Conceited with results is swagger. Conceited while losing to FIU is ignominious. 

FIU came to win this game. They crowded the middle to take away RPO passes. They flopped and faked injuries to take away rhythm and time. They threw short passes to negate the pass rush. They held ridiculously and dared the refs to call it. They used every trick in the book.

FIU wide receiver Tony Gaiter IV led the team with 82 yards on six receptions and scored the second touchdown of the game.

But they exploited a passive and unprepared Miami coaching staff. They were tipping their hand, daring the Canes to run over them in the first half, with knowledge that the Hurricanes would force the pass. They were faking injuries, telling the Canes to speed up the tempo, tipping their hand that they could not handle tempo, yet Miami played slow. The Canes coaches knew better.

Except they don’t. After the game, Manny Diaz compared these Canes to the current number one team in the nation. In 2017, LSU lost to Troy at home. Diaz is very familiar with that LSU team, having helped kick-start their Renaissance by not getting his defense ready to start the 2018 season in a blowout loss to LSU. But that analogy, much like everything that has happened since Diaz introduced us to The New Miami, does not hold up to any scrutiny.

2017 LSU went 9-3 (eventually losing the Citrus Bowl to Notre Dame). Their other losses were to Mississippi State and Alabama. They won multiple games against ranked teams that year. Troy was also a 10-win team in that regular season (and got to 11 in their bowl game). LSU losing to Troy that year was a case of a good team taking a solid team lightly and blowing a game because of it.

That’s not what the Miami-FIU game was. FIU came in with 5 wins, recently losing to FAU by 30. The Canes, meanwhile, have had ridiculously horrible performances against North Carolina, Central Michigan (in a win), Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and now FIU. They have come out of bye weeks being outscored 61-3 to start games by UNC, VT, and FIU. Miami is not a good team that played a bad game. The Canes are an awful team that played another bad game in a season of bad games and has systemic issues that are not analogous to anything that LSU was going through in 2017.

The only way forward with this staff is for the delusions of grandeur to stop. They are not smarter and more advanced. They started this tenure focusing on all the wrong things because they did not understand the enormity of the task in front of them, the importance of the work.

Many will want to clean house now:

If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
It were done quickly

There is no indication that the administration is thinking that way. But what is necessary is a full reset, new staff or not. Stop focusing on style, and focus on substance. Focus on excellence, and not excuse making. Stop with empty platitudes and make real changes in everything related to the approach to building this program. The program is rotten from the inside, and not a few tweaks, or even a single coordinator change, away from achieving greatness.

The LSU team that Diaz so flippantly referenced to deflect attention from last night’s debacle? They won the Fiesta Bowl after the 2018 season. How does Miami get from “rock bottom” to winning a NY6 bowl next year? With problem recognition. The staff misidentified the issues with “Old Miami” and created issues where there were none. This was not a complete cultural and competency rebuild when they got here. But it is now. Anything less will result in the continued amplification of the gathering storm clouds threatening to inundate The New Miami and sink the yacht Diaz so confidently rode in on 7 months ago.

 

Photos by Tony Capobianco. Follow Vishnu at @VRP2003. Note: The t-shirt featured above is available for purchase here. 

Flamengo vs River Plate: ¿Quién llega mejor a la final de la Libertadores?

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Bruno Gomez, de 90 + Cinco, analiza la final única entre Flamengo de Brasil y River Plate de Argentina que se jugará este sábado 22 de Noviembre.

Para Bruno Gómez, Flamengo tiene un poco de favoritismo. ¿Ustedes qué opinan?

 

TEAM – Together. Everyone. Achieves. More. The 19-20 Heat.

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Ever since LeBron spurned Miami for Wasteland – Cleveland, HEAT fans have been desperate for the NEXT move. Even new signings are immediately viewed as “tradeable assets” to acquire the next guy. As children of Riley, we’re born and bred with the mindset of always keeping an eye on the future. We all fall victim to the trade machine. December 15 is practically a holiday on Twitter as we flood our timelines with hypothetical “who says no?” trade scenarios.

 

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Except, this season feels different. This current HEAT roster has quickly captivated the hearts of local fans and the attention of the national media. The energy, the selflessness, the toughness – THIS is what Miami Heat basketball is supposed to look like. For the first time since 2014, HEAT fans are living in the moment. Don’t believe me? Look for yourself….

 

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Not since 2003 have the Miami Heat had such a lovable squad. This is the most cohesive HEAT team I can remember in years! It’s not only that the pieces fit perfectly, it’s the way they play together.

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And that motto we love to throw around that defines our CULTURE – the hardest-working, best conditioned, most professional, unselfish, toughest, meanest, nastiest team in the NBA– is exactly how we would define the 2019-2020 HEAT team. It’s never been more evident than Wednesday night when Duncan “SNIPERSON” displayed his lethal stroke from downtown, draining NINE three pointers against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Every guy on the HEAT bench was on their feet with excitement as the ball went through the net.

What other franchise can take G-League players and turn them into legit NBA rotation pieces or, in the case of Kenrick Nunn, potential stars? Fans can talk themselves into believing they have a chance with any team, but this year, the Eastern Conference is truly up for grabs. And at a time when most HEAT fans are usually banging the table for Riley to work his trade magic, we are instead collectively rooting to see what this group as currently constructed can accomplish in the playoffs.

 

HEAT fans have patiently waited for a team to take the reins and lead the CULTURE into the franchise’s next phase, the A.W. (After Wade) years. And Jimmy Butler is the perfect leader for this franchise at this moment in time.

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And don’t look now, but Chris Silva is making that 30 on his back look more like 40 with his Udonis Haslem-esque warrior mentality. No question, this team is likely another move away from contending for a championship. But our biggest strengths are our depth and team unity. One trade can completely blow that up. We’ve seen what a difference one guy can make (Hey Hassan!) on team morale. Instead, fans are rallying behind a group of guys that are more focused on winning than personal stats. A group of guys that are looking to make plays for their teammates instead of themselves. A group of guys that will scratch and claw their way for every last rebound. And a group of guys that genuinely love playing for each other.

 

That’s the type of Miami Heat team fans will go to battle with 8 days a week!

 

How could we look towards the future, when we’re so in love with the present?

 

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The Mourning Edition: The Ceiling Has Blown Through The Roof

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Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The NBA still hasn’t noticed what’s brewing on Biscayne.

Save for the sporadic cursory glances, no one has bothered taking much stock of the new-look Miami Heat. For the select few who have, their opinions on the team that Pat Riley built land somewhere between skepticism and outright pessimism.

Jimmy Butler says he’s as happy as ever after finding a spot that fits his personality. Doubters wonder how long the honeymoon will last.

The stat sheet regards the Heat as all-caps ELITE: tied for fourth in winning percentage, third in net efficiency. Power rankers shrug their shoulders and say, ‘Yeah, but who’ve they played?’

Miami landed eighth on the most ESPN rankings, while Royce Young quipped, “The schedule set them up for a three-game winning streak.”

Grand scheme, sure, the Heat get noting for playing a dominant month of basketball. But why have hoops heads decided this is the one early-season storyline no one needs to trust?

Is it really all because Butler had some messy divorces in his past? What if it just took him a few tries to find his perfect match? If at first you don’t succeed, right?

Remember, the good vibes started long before the win column ballooned.

“I feel that the way they go about everything here is the right way,” Butler said at his introductory press conference. “That’s what I am banking on. That’s why I am here.”

He might be a four-time All-Star now, but he’s also the player who went unranked out of Tomball (Texas) High School, who opened his college career at Tyler Junior College, who wasn’t selected until 30th overall in the 2011 draft (which he now leads in win shares) and who didn’t average double-digit points until his third NBA campaign.

His story of overcoming impossibly long odds is one shared by nearly everyone inside of this organization.

Goran Dragic was a second-round pick in 2008 and didn’t become a full-time starter until his age-26 season. Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Udonis Haslem and Chris Silva were all undrafted. Even head coach Erik Spoelstra is an old video coordinator who worked his way up through the ranks, and despite winning a pair of titles, he still seems underrated.

Even the “blue chips” aren’t what they seem.

Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were lottery picks, but neither landed in the top 10. Adebayo was recently left off a Team USA team that had trouble attracting and retaining top talents. The Ringer graded the Herro selection as a C and questioned if he’d even stay on the floor. Justise Winslow, the 10th pick in 2015, has critics within the Heat’s own fanbase.

“Everybody is an underdog here,” Butler said at training camp. “If they’re not, they go about it as if they are.”

What if that shared mentality and willingness to work has bonded this locker room tighter than any he’s been involved in? What if he’s found something here that he was missing elsewhere?

Or, and I know this is a novel idea, what if we don’t play armchair psychologist and instead hear Butler express his contentment and just take his word for it until we have a current, valid reason to do otherwise?

His happiness can change everything. It already looks like it has.

He looks completely comfortable in his pass-first, score-when-needed role, and so does everyone else in the offense. This team has the Association’s second-highest assist percentage and no real natural point guard on the roster. Butler’s impact is real, and it’s spectacular, and doubting it only for the fear it might eventually get rocky seems like a miserable way to live.

As for the schedule-obsessed skeptics, good-to-great teams have long established that standing by beating up on bottom-feeders. Last season, the champion Toronto Raptors barely had a winning record against .500-or-better teams (22-20); the 50-win Utah Jazz (20-21) and 49-win Boston Celtics(17-25) were in the red.

Good-to-great clubs handle the teams they should and more or less tread water against anyone else. That’s exactly the model Miami has followed to this point. It has a perfect 7-0 mark against losing clubs—one of only four undefeated records against them—and a 3-3 mark against .500-plus teams, counting wins over Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks and James Harden’s Rockets.

ESPN’s RPI says the Heat have faced the eighth-toughest schedule so far. Why, exactly, is their path behind held against them?

Maybe people are just running out of other reasons to doubt. The absence of a second star seemed worrisome until Bam Adebayo blossomed into that role. The longer guys like Nunn, Herro and Robinson keep rolling, the harder it is to see the rug being pulled out from underneath them.

And let’s not forget, Winslow has barely broken a sweat with this group. If he can find a way to coexist with Butler—at this point, doesn’t Spoelstra deserve the benefit of the doubt?—this team’s potential climbs even higher.

Already, though, the outlook has changed. The Heat had a chance to be pretty good; they’ve made themselves great instead.

“We can’t keep surprising people,” Butler said after the latest win, the team’s third double-digit triumph in a row. “We’re for real. I don’t think anybody wants to play against us, and that’s the way we want to keep it.”

The Heat aren’t going away, regardless if the rest of the hoops world notices or not.

The Miami Beach Bowl is back

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The FIU Golden Panthers are fighting an uphill battle for their sixth win and bowl eligibility. But they got a bowl game coming up against the Miami Hurricanes at the site of the historic but now non-existent Orange Bowl on Saturday.

Marlins Park had the Miami Beach Bowl from 2014-16 and each game came with amazing moments. The first game between Memphis and BYU in double-overtime win by the Tigers and ended in a brawl. The second installment saw Western Kentucky quarterback and former Miami Dolphins practice squad member Brandon Doughty end his collegiate career in his hometown against South Florida and his former coach. The third game ended with the Golden Hurricanes of Tulsa demolishing Central Michigan and finishing the season with a 3,000-yard passer, a pair of 1,000-yard rushers and receivers, something that has never happened in FBS history.

Even though the games were memorable to those who attended, the ratings and attendance numbers were forgettable. The conferences that controlled the bowl game and ESPN (who created bowl games for content purposes) did the Miami Beach Bowl no favors when they held each game on a Monday kicking off at 2 p.m. The game was basically nothing more than a bridge between the noon Sportcenter to Monday Night Countdown. It didn’t matter how few people were at the game.

College football has experimented with holding bowl games in MLB ballparks before and continue to do so. San Francisco, Arizona, Tampa Bay, New York and Miami all played host to bowl games in baseball venues and Boston is going to lend Fenway Park to bowl season in the next year. It offered a unique experience for fans that are used to see the game from afar in what looks likes a modern day coliseum.

“I tell this to people all the time, you don’t realize how intimate [ballparks] are until you go to a baseball stadium to watch a football game. The upper deck is stacked right on top of the field,” said Miami Beach Bowl director Carlos Padilla II back in 2014.

The Miami Beach Bowl moved to a soccer stadium in Frisco, TX, but the game pretty much gets to return in glorious fashion between Miami’s two FBS programs.

FIU has always been in the shadow of UM despite having four times the enrollment. The Panthers established their football program in 2002 on the heels of the Hurricanes’ recent era of dominance and became a FBS program in 2005 when the dominance was starting to fade towards mediocrity.

A massive fight in the Orange Bowl in 2006 nearly severed all ties between the two programs. After 2007, a decade would pass before they would play each other again in 2018 at Hard Rock Stadium. A win for FIU would make their season and perhaps be the biggest win in program history. It may even be bigger than their first bowl win in 2010 against Toledo in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl which remains the only time the Miami Herald made FIU the centerpiece of their sports section.

Under Butch Davis, the Panthers are as good as they ever been in program history. They are coming off back-to-back bowl appearances for the second time in program history and last season won nine games for the first time ever. This year they are 5-5 and need a win against either Miami and C-USA leading Marshall to reach three straight bowls.

The Panthers have never won a game against Miami. Usually teams from the Power 5 conferences (Big 10, Big 12, ACC, SEC, Pac-12) dominate teams from the “Group of 5” conferences (Sun Belt, C-USA, American, MAC, Mountain West). It’s why most of the games in the first month of the college football season involves clashes with these classes of conferences, usually amounting to nothing more than a glorified preseason.

This matchup has a deeper meaning than that for these programs. The Hurricanes are treated as a de facto professional team in a college landscape. UM is a private school in Coral Gables with less than 11K students that became a football powerhouse because it took advantage of its rich recruiting base. FIU is the cities main public university and has more than 40K students yet many of them grew up cheering for the Hurricanes and just happen to not attend the school.

This has led to a clash on social media between the two fan bases leading up to the game.

This game might as well be senior day for both teams. Seniors from both teams are playing their final game in town on sacred ground and both rosters are comprised with players who played together or against each other in high school.

“We’ve got to go in there and protect it like our home because it is our home,” said Miami sophomore cornerback Al Blades Jr. “It was always our home, so we’ve got to go in there and play like it.

“I definitely think it’s going to be a special moment, not just for us, but for all the players in the past.”

Heat’s New Faces Leading The Way

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The Heat had a clean sweep this week (vs Pistons on Tuesday, @ Cavs on Thursday, and vs Pelicans on Saturday) that helped make up for a bumpy 1-2 road trip. That trip included losing Justise Winslow (concussion) and Derrick Jones Jr. (hip) to injuries that they still have not returned from. The team came together and put together a perfect week against teams that are clearly below this version of the Heat and it was great to see that they were able to do the thing that great teams need to be able to do: beat bad teams.

Let’s dive into what have been some of the major driving forces behind the team’s continued strong play this season.

Jimmy Butler Doing Whatever It Takes

It was always clear from the moment the Heat traded for Butler that he was going to be a leader for this franchise moving forward. What was unclear is how he was going to lead, from both an on-court fit perspective and a personality perspective. What’s clear with Jimmy in regards to his actual play is that he has tailoring his game to what the team needs from him, and the injury issues with Justise Winslow have provided an early trial for that.

Jimmy and Justise have only played 2 games (vs. ATL & @ DEN) together this season, and there has been a noticeable difference in Jimmy’s statistical output in those games compared to the rest of the season. Two things stand out about the games Jimmy has played with Justise: Butler had his highest FT attempts of the season in those games as well as two of his lowest assist games. When playing with Justise, Butler understands he must take on a more assertive, attacking role (hence the jump in FTA) with Winslow responsible for organizing the offense and initiating the action.

Taking the reigns of the offense with Winslow out with a concussion, Jimmy has had two 13-assist games in the last week as he wreaks havoc with his dribble penetration and kick out game. On top of that, Butler continues to wreak havoc defensively:

  • He’s currently 3rd in the NBA in deflections per game, getting his hands on 4 passes per game
  • He’s currently holding opponents to the 3rd lowest field goal percentage (34% FG) in the NBA among high volume defenders*
  • He has 25 steals to 10 fouls called this season, which is an insane stat. Fun Fact: The only active players in the NBA with more steals than fouls are Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard.

He’s shown his ability to rise to the moment of taking on elite offensive players. This season, Jimmy has defended LeBron James, James Harden, Devin Booker, Russell Westbrook, and Luke Kennard for a combined 88 possessions this season where they scored a combined 19 points on 31.6% FG while turning the ball over a combined 10 times, according to NBA Advanced Stats Player Tracking data. James Harden was the only one of those players to arguably have a successful time working against Jimmy, but despite Harden’s efficiency Butler forced him into 5 turnovers.

Here is another fun super-cut of Jimmy showing off his elite hands from the games this week:

Kendrick Nunn Making An Early RoY Case

The tweet above was actually written before the game against the Pelicans, but everything above is still true except that P.J. Washington has now taken a slight lead in Win Shares (1.0 vs Nunn’s 0.9). That in itself is a tremendous resume for a still-way-too-early look into the Rookie of the Year race. I don’t think anyone was expecting that Kendrick Nunn would be the leading the Miami Heat in offensive possessions used 12 games into the season, nor that he would be doing it with the efficiency that he’s shown so far. Nunn set the bar pretty high for himself during his first Heat action during Summer League, and one of the biggest surprises of this season is that he has maintained his impressive output as he’s progressed through pre-season and now into the regular season.

Kendrick is the real deal from a scoring perspective as he has a patience and range to his game that already is allowing him to create serious problems for established defenders around the league:

Nunn is currently using 16% of the Heat’s offensive possessions, the highest usage on the team, and he’s averaging just shy of 1 PPP, which puts in in the 63rd percentile in the NBA according to Synergy Sports. The fact that he’s putting up a 47% FG – 38% 3P – 84% FT shooting line while still maintaining a respectable 1.4 Assist to Turnover ratio shows that Spoelstra was justified in entrusting him with such a large part of the offense. It’s going to be interesting to see if Kendrick can keep up this usage and efficiency throughout the grind of an entire NBA season, but it seems the organization is prepared to give him the opportunity to carry the load.

Duncan Robinson Needs To Play

Robinson may not necessarily be a new face, since he has been in the Heat’s program since they signed as an un-drafted free agent in the summer of 2018, but his impact certainly has been an unexpected development. Robinson gives the Heat a nice dimension as a properly sized wing who is sound defensively and can offer serious upside when his shot is falling. One of the biggest struggles with Duncan from last season going through summer league and pre-season this fall was the inconsistency with his shot-making. That seems to be in the past, as Duncan has found his groove and is now shooting 41% from behind the arc on almost 6 attempts per game.

Duncan-related notables**:

  • He’s 9 of 12 finishing at the rim so far this season, with a lot of that coming on great cutting action on his part.
  • He’s 1 of 8 on jumpers off the dribble and he’s barely taken any mid-range attempts.
  • He has been a flame thrower when left open and a brick layer when he’s been covered in catch and shoot situations:
    • Catch and Shoot – Guarded – 5 of 28 from the field – 0.54 PPP (17th percentile)
    • Catch and Shoot – Unguarded – 19 of 26 from the field – 2.15 PPP (100th percentile)
  • Not only is Duncan getting most of his touches in high efficiency areas, but he’s scoring from behind the arc and at the rim at elite levels through the first 15% of the season:

It’s difficult to say what is going to happen to Duncan’s playing time. Winslow and Jones Jr. are coming back from injury soon and who knows if we see a re-emergence of James Johnson or Dion Waiters. It will be interesting to see how Spoelstra manages that dilemma because Robinson has showed that he provides the shot-making and spacing, combined with solid overall defense, to warrant consistent playing time.

I may have not talked about Bam Adebayo in this article, but he has been absolutely tremendous the past couple weeks. He’s looking more confident offensively and is just showing tremendous stamina with how engaged he is defensively. If the Heat stay towards the top of the East, he should absolutely be in All-Star consideration.

MAILBAG!

Q: 

A: I suppose this is one of the only real downsides of the situation Erik Spoelstra is in right now. He’s got an entire team of players playing well that all deserve to play, with more players that have earned rotation spots still on their way back from injury. Probably the most amazing stat of this start for Miami is this: The Heat have played winning basketball (+/-) with all 12 players that have played at least 50 minutes this season. For context, the 2012-13 Miami Heat only had 11 players with 50+ minutes in positive net ratings. James Johnson is +27 in his 57 minutes and at the bottom is Goran Dragic at +1.6 net rating. There hasn’t been a clear, glaring weakness exploited yet.

Considering there are only so many minutes that can be handed out during a game, it’ll be interesting to see if the Heat FO sees this log-jam of competent players and decides it has enough reasons to justify flipping multiple pieces for a big fish. (Which they do.)

Q:

A: The Heat have a +6.4 net rating when Bam is on the court and a +9.0 net rating when Bam is off the court, so the numbers say they’re better without Bam. The reality is that the reason the Heat have been slightly better without Bam is due to the great play of Chris Silva, with a lot of those minutes against secondary units. Not to mention the last time a rotation Heat player had a net rating as high as +6.4 it is was in the final year of the Big 3, so perspective is important.

Q:

A: Accountability is clearly something that means a lot to Jimmy Butler and that started right after his post signing vacation. When him and other Heat players started putting in practice sessions at 3:30 AM when the rest of the league was still enjoying themselves, you knew things were going to be a little different moving forward. The other variable is the fact that the Heat have SO MANY new faces and those new faces are playing quite a bit. In fact, 46% of the Heat’s player minutes have come from players that either were not on the team or did not contribute last season. What has made this a special start for Miami is that all of these new faces are contributing in a positive way.

Q:

A: In the wise words of the beloved Coach Tony, “Yeah Baby!”.

*minimum 10 defended field goal attempts per game and 5 games played (via www.nba.com/stats)

*all data referenced in this section can be found at Synergy Sports

GUTS CHECK: Balanced attacks, Robinson rolling, Sixers ahead

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won vs Detroit 117-108
  • Won at Cleveland 108-97
  • Won vs New Orleans 109-94

Taking Care of Business

Last week we discussed the need for the Heat to emerge 6-1 or 5-2 in this next 7 game stretch. A 3-0 undefeated week has them tracking nicely to accomplish that feat.

And wow, has this been fun to watch. The ball zipping around on offense, finishing possessions with swished threes, forcing turnovers that lead to more buckets, has made this 9-3 more entertaining than maybe 9-3 should feel. The team just looks, interacts and performs as cohesively as any group has since the Big 3 era. That’s a big deal.

Balanced Attack

Last week, we saw quality contributions from pretty much everyone. Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo – the list goes on and on. Actually, wait a minute, do not pass go, click on this link to read The Launching Pad by Nekias Duncan. No, seriously, abort this column and read TLP.  We are lucky to have him breaking down Miami Heat basketball. Nekias is a beast.

I think we can all agree that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been the two main pillars for this team so far. That is such a welcome sight. It can be argued that this duo has been the most effective two-way duo in the entire Eastern Conference.

 

Conceptually at least, Justise Winslow has been the most viable candidate to complete a trio that would complement each other gracefully.

As we know, (even though it feels like we really don’t know very much) Justise Winslow is still out with a concussion. This has forced others to continually step up.

There is something to be said for the Heat’s early season reality. The third wheel has been unpredictable moment to moment, never mind game to game. It has always been someone different depending on the matchups. One night it’s Nunn, next it’s Dragic. Tyler Herro here, Chris Silva there.

This feels more sustainable when you consider it isn’t solely based on one player carrying the load or the team shooting the lights out at an unbelievable clip. I know it sounds cliché but this is a prototypical team effort. Amazing what happens when one of the best coaches in the league gets a roster that fits.

Player to Watch

Duncan Robinson is further along than I think any of us could have predicted. Uneven play to start the preseason and the first week of the regular season had Robinson as a player that many Heat fans called to be removed from the rotation.

However, it appears Robinson is in this rotation to stay. His combination of deadly shooting, size and passable defense have proven to be a net positive.

Team sources have maintained to me since before Opening Night that they were prepared to find minutes for Robinson, they see him as a player that can have a Jason Kapono like gravitational pull that helps surrounding scoring threats.

Although he may never get to the 49-50% from deep as Kapono did in his short Heat stint, Robinson is currently attempting double the amount per game (5.8 v. 3.1) and shooting 54% from the corners. If Robinson can provide the type of gravity that players like Kapono and Ellington have in years past, on a team that shares the ball like this one, it may prove to be an indispensable safety valve all season.

In 28 MPG last week Robinson averaged 12.3 ppg, going 9/21 from behind the arc (42.9%). He also chipped in on the defensive side, netting 4 steals which was more than his total in the first 10 games combined.

Currently on pace to come within striking distance of 200 3PT FGM, it’s safe to say Robinson has seized his increased minutes in the absence of Winslow and others.

The Philly Game

Between now and the next edition of GUTS CHECK, Jimmy and the Heat will visit the Sixers. I cannot wait for that game. Mark your calendars folks, Saturday November 23rd at 7:30 pm EST. Process versus Culture in the flesh.

Jimmy versus a hostile Philly crowd, with this group of dogs behind him. Easily the early favorite for the game Heat fans are looking forward to most thus far.

Who knows, maybe Jimmy will also put in a good word with Embiid as a fit next to Bam right?

How on earth did that game not get scheduled for national television? Flex schedule anyone?