Guts Check: Put Away the Trade Machine

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won at Toronto 121-110
  • Lost at Boston 112-93
  • Won vs Washington 112-103
  • Won in OT vs Chicago 110-105 
    • 3rd in the Eastern Conference, 17-6 .739

Put away your trade machines.

I know you love a good transaction, but now is not the time. Have the guts to be patient.

Until you see this group lose a handful of games in a short window or struggle for a month straight, the Heat is inclined to stand pat. As they should be. No Kevin Love proposals please. Even Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are no longer viable by my view.

Everything is going exactly to plan.

The goal was to have one star attract another star with the help of a core group that checks all the boxes. The ascension of Bam Adebayo and inevitable rise to stardom from Tyler Herro will make this Heat group as desirable as any Heat roster that went into free agency with max space to offer a superstar ever (aside when they had space to offer three maxes, but let’s exclude that for the rest of eternity)

Pat Riley is going to keep eyes open on the trade market. Particularly for any star players that may quietly get shopped and eventually shake loose that would accelerate this build. Or maybe they look at adding a win now vet that doesn’t compromise 2021. That said, reality remains that the type of player worthy of compromising 2021 flexibility is not likely to become available. Any option is more stop gap than gap fill.

This is about setting the table.

Head into summer 2021 free agent meetings with Riley & staff, flanked by Jimmy, Bam & Tyler. Nunn, Robinson, Silva, Okpala all ready to contribute. A core group that exudes this type of connection is noticed by other players.

I can tell you definitively that it was noticed by Bradley Beal.

He won’t be the last player to have that imprint left upon them.

While the urge will always be there to consider names like Kevin Love, Blake Griffin or Chris Paul being potential “missing pieces”, this urge will only intensify the better this team plays. Ignore it, suppress it until it dissolves.

Riley has been known to push all his chips to the middle the table, so any star that even becomes remotely available must be considered. I get that. But consider Riley’s chips not quite stacked high enough yet for him to go all in.

The notion that a Giannis-Miami pairing would end up being the best situation for the best player in the league is still a speculative theory all things considered.

By next December it may appear a no brainer.

The other no brainer? Trusting this organization to strike when the time is right in this scenario.

For now, enjoy THIS team. If you have the guts.

It’s Time To Stop Doubting Tyler Herro

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[steps to podium]

[taps mic]

Hi, hello, is this thing on?

[Adjusts collar]

My name is Nekias Duncan, and I was wrong about Tyler Herro.

It’s typically unwise to have any definitive opinion on rookies, but this one seems pretty obvious.

To say that I was vocal about my displeasure of his selection would be an understatement. There may or may not have been discussions of a shift to Hawks coverage.

I made the mistake of hammering home Herro’s weaknesses and underselling his strengths. I didn’t take his “prove the haters wrong” ethos seriously enough; it’s especially egregious for two reasons.

1) This feature from Bleacher Report’s Mirin Fader laid out Herro’s background beautifully. This isn’t your typical bookmark-a-tweet-for-motivation guy; he’s shrugged off death threats and vandalism from a young age.

2) After the brief stint of mediocrity the Heat went through, and the success of the Bam Adebayo pick specifically, the Heat zeroing in on Herro the way they did should’ve been a clear sign that they saw something special.

That didn’t stop me from being upset with the pick. The takes I let fly on draft night were laughable at best, cringeworthy at worst. They’re going to be laugh fodder for quite some time. Honestly, it’s well deserved.

It’s so well deserved, that I’m going to make the job a little easier for everyone. I took the “pleasure” of listening back to the draft night pod I did and transcribing everything I said. I will not bore you with all of the “come on, mans” , but I will gladly own up to the biggest things I got wrong.

Think of this piece as The Laughing Pad instead of The Launching Pad.

(Direct quotes in bold, analysis underneath.)

Like, he hasn’t shown – I mean he went to Kentucky, so obviously that plays a part – but he hasn’t shown flashes of being a real creator. So I don’t understand what they saw.

For the sake of clarity, it’s important to note that I was speaking through the lens of potential star potential. From the limited amount of Kentucky I had seen at the time, Herro did not seem like a true break-you-down prospect,

Of course, my view lightened a bit once I saw more of him. That led to me writing this piece on his offensive upside, and then somehow coming away more impressed after Summer League play.

Tyler relocates well and can hit spot-ups. He’s not flinging off-balance threes like Wayne [Ellington] was. And maybe he gets there when he improves the footwork, but if that’s the upside, it doesn’t make sense. Miami needs shot creation – sign a shooter.

Technically true! Herro isn’t hitting threes with the finesse that Ellington did. He does a much better job of establishing his base, and is better shooting off the dribble than Ellington was.

 

Herro has shown comfort getting himself out of jams, favoring a mean right-to-left stepback jumper. Via Synergy, he’s generating 0.96 points per possession on off-the-dribble jumpers, placing him in the 63rd percentile. Second Spectrum’s tracking data has Herro at 15-of-28 (53.6 percent) on stepbacks, with a 4-of-10 clip (40 percent) on stepback triples.

Also, it turns out the Heat didn’t need to sign a shooter. Duncan Robinson (42.5 percent on 6.5 attempts) has more than filled that slot.

If you’re going to take a flier, take the flier on KPJ (Kevin Porter Jr.) and hope that he can create.

Here’s how these two stack up in isolation + pick-and-roll creation.

Porter Jr: 64 possessions, 47 points (0.734 PPP), 23-of-64 from the field (35.9 percent)

Herro: 108 possessions, 81 points (0.75 PPP), 32-of-84 from the field (38.1 percent)

Neither are great marks, and it’s worth noting the difference in .. um .. team quality. The fact remains that Herro has been better, and the gap widens (at least statistically) once you factor in passing (0.924 PPP vs 0.787 PPP).

If you’re gonna take a 6’5ish guard that can do some stuff, take Nickeil Alexander-Walker if you’re gonna go that route. At least he can create some in pick-and-roll. He’s not a great athlete, but he has some length.

More numbers, shall we?

NAW: 21-8-7 per 100 possessions, 32/32/69 shooting split, 0.856 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Herro: 24-7-3 per 100 possessions, 45/39/83 shooting split, 0.914 PPP in pick-and-roll (passes included)

Oddly enough, both players entered this year’s draft with finishing questions. Herro’s lack of length was harped on by yours truly, while NAW’s lack of vertical pop was a cause for concern.

Through the early portion of the season, Herro has been below average (52.8 percent at the rim, via Synergy), while NAW has been outright dreadful (39.5 percent).

As much as I got harped on for the Brandon Clarke love because of his 6’8 wingspan, Brandon Clarke is the second best athlete in the draft. Who *also* has ridiculous IQ defensively. So at least there’s a path to making that work. What does Tyler do [on that end]?

Rebound. The answer is rebound.

There are other things to note. Herro has been mostly fine as a positional defender. He’s generally where he needs to be off the ball, tracks pretty well over screens, and has the dig-and-recover sequence down when enemies attack the basket.

His ability to end possessions is just not something I saw coming. “Gritty” is generally a white-flavored buzzword, but he genuinely doesn’t mind mixing it up for tough boards.

 

 

Herro’s 14.1 defensive rebound rate outpaces notable guard rebounders like James Harden (13.8) and Jimmy Butler (13.1), and is right in the wheelhouse of Memphis Grizzlies wunderkind (and big man) Jaren Jackson Jr. (14.4).

Do the Heat want to throw Herro on elite scorers with regularity? Probably not. Practice stories and an impressive showing against Devin Booker aside, Herro does struggle to contain quicker guards off the dribble.

But were his defensive shortcomings a bit overblown? Probably so. He’s smart, physical, and helps the team end possessions. The flash plays are nice when they come, but he’s ultimately done his job.

Oh … I would take Rui [Hachimura if available]. Again, the bar is the floor, but also .. man that’s tough. If Tyler had an average frame, then you could say ‘well Kentucky normally compresses their guys’ roles and he can already shoot some, so maybe he has some hidden playmaking ability and he can be fine on defense.’ But the guy has a 6’3 wingspan. Like, he has alligator arms.

1) OOF.

2) Even with the caveat that Rui has been a little better than expected, that’s … oof. The phyiscal tools are tantalizing, but he’s been a not-at-all-insignificant part of the Wizards’ historically bad defense.

3) Every single one of those Kentucky caveats were true, even with the “alligator arms.”

I did this with Bam, so obviously I *want* to be wrong. But, like, nah. This is different than the Bam pick.

It’s quite different from the Bam pick for a very specific reason: Herro has shut me up with a lot more force.

Adebayo has been incredible this season, placing his name firmly in talks for the Most Improved Player award, the Defensive Player of the Year award, and the All-Star team.

Herro has been, at the absolute worst, the third best rookie in this year’s class. Winning Rookie of the Year isn’t out of the question, especially if Zion Williamson doesn’t see the floor much this season.

The Heat have nailed back-to-back end-of-the-lotto picks and I didn’t like either of them at the time of their selection. Either I’m an incredible jinx — maybe! — or this organization deserves a lot more credit (and faith) for their ability to scout.

It’s probably the latter.

Season Ticket: This Miami Heat start is real… and spectacular

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You know it when you see it.

You know it when you hear it.

And we’ve seen it. We’ve heard it. We’ve seen how these Miami Heat players have interacted with each other since training camp in West Palm Beach, or even prior, when the group workout clips started circulating on social media, including the ones of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, the new Heat heartbeat welcoming the fresh-faced, drippy prodigy to the NBA and team fraternity, no pledging or hazing required. We’ve heard how the front office and coaching staff has spoken about this collective, about how selfless they are, about how connected they are, about how hungry they are, about how versatile they are, about how precocious they are. “This has a chance to be one of my favorite groups,” a Heat official who has been with the team for more than two decades told me in early September. “Just watch. People are underestimating us. This has a chance to happen fast.”

And we believed them. Or at least I believed them. I even put your money where my mouth was, suggesting you go over the 43 wins that the Las Vegas oddsmaker set on the futures table, suggesting you look seriously at Bam Adebayo as a Most Improved Player candidate, Erik Spoelstra as a Coach of the Year option and even Butler as a Most Valuable Player darkhorse. My co-hosts on Five on the Floor took a little more time, perhaps. But they came around too. They saw what I saw and kept saying — if you give Spoelstra an less cluttered roster full of motivated players with a defensive mindset, special things can happen.

So we’re not surprised about this, not completely, not on the Five on the Floor podcast. Impressed, but not surprised. Not that it’s gone well. This well? Starting 17-6, after a 110-105 overtime victory against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday evening, giving them as more wins than 25 of 29 other teams? Winning all 10 home games, after underperforming badly at American Airlines Arena in recent seasons? Losing only to teams that are currently in the playoffs, with all but Minnesota well over .500 entering Sunday’s play? Doing this while shelving more than $25 million (James Johnson, Dion Waiters) for assorted issues; while missing two of the three primary ballhandlers (Justise Winslow, Goran Dragic) of late; while relying on two rookies (Herro, Kendrick Nunn), one 19 and one undrafted, as two of their five leading scorers; while counting on two more projects (Duncan Robinson, Chris Silva) in the rotation?

Posting the same record through 23 games as the LeBron-Wade-Bosh Big Three Heat did in each of their final three seasons together, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14? And two games better than that Hall of Fame-stacked squad did in its first season together (2010-11)? A game better than the Heat started in Shaquille O’Neal’s first season (2004-05)? Four games better than the Heat started after acquiring Alonzo Mourning (1995-96)? And, of course, nine games better through 23 than during Dwyane Wade’s rookie season?

OK, maybe a little.

But it’s real.

This is what the Heat are — or at least, this is the floor. There likely won’t be a championship, not yet, but there won’t be a collapse. Barring a major injury, something more significant to a primary contributor than what has caused Winslow and Dragic to miss 18 combined games, with both soon to return, this team should continue to improve as the season progresses. There’s simply no reason they shouldn’t. Yes, there will be bumps. Every season, every roster, has them. The Big Three teams had them. So why wouldn’t these guys? We’ve already seen Nunn encounter some, especially on the road against better opponents, with prepared teams taking advantage of his tunnel vision. We’ve seen Adebayo pass when he should shoot; that played a prominent role in his seven turnovers Sunday, the only nit in his otherwise superlative statline. We’ve seen Butler struggle more with his jumpshot than in recent seasons. And we haven’t seen enough of Winslow and Butler together to know whether, offensively, it can really work.

But you know what else we’ve seen?

Trust in each other.

Passion under pressure.

Growth individually, and together.

And winning at less than their best.

Take Sunday. Yes, take it. Embrace it, in all of its ugliness. Choppy. Uneven. Unsightly at times. And yet, when it mattered, when the customary closer (Butler) had lost his legs, when his shots were coming up short — when he was already so weary that he would spend several minutes slumped in his locker stall later, acknowledging his exhaustion — he turned to a kid who was born exactly one year prior to George W. Bush’s first inauguration. A kid most of Miami didn’t want Pat Riley to select, even with John Calipari’s endorsement and that Kentucky pedigree. A kid who wore the loudest outfit on draft night but speaks to media members in the quietest voice. A kid who has that ideal combination of conformity and cockiness, who wants to work and then work his opponents over. A kid who won over a demanding, star teammate in a way that three former No. 1 overall picks (guys named Towns and Wiggins and Simmons) clearly did not in previous stops.

A kid who scored 27, including three three-pointers at critical times after a slow start to the night, including 16 of the Heat’s final 18, including 11 in overtime.

“You saw in college, with the biggest moments, that’s where he was playing his best,” Spoelstra said Sunday of Herro. “If your max player trusts you in these moments….”

That Butler does. Implicitly.

“We’ve got a lot in common, to tell you the truth,” Butler said. “But more than anything, I respect the way he works, the way he carries himself.”

Their big/little brother bond is obvious. Been obvious. And that trust has been remarkable and refreshing.

But not more than Herro trusts himself. He trusts his shot like he trusts his wardrobe. As he told me when I asked in camp who has the most “drip” in the NBA: “I do.” Who’s second? “No one’s close.”

Sunday, the Bulls weren’t close enough to him on the floor. Not after Butler drew the defense. Not after scrambles.

Not when it counted.

It looked like he was seeking those opportunities. To be the hero or goat.

At 19.

Sunday night, he stood in front of the locker stall that LeBron and Shaq once did.

“Uh, yeah,” Herro said. “I don’t shy away from taking the big shot. I have a lot of confidence. So down the stretch, Jimmy trusts me with the ball. He got me it in good spots, and I knocked down a couple of threes.”

Matter of fact.

Surprised the Bulls weren’t closing out harder?

“They had to pick their poison, either Jimmy or me,” Herro said, with a hint of a laugh.

Then he remembered he’s a rookie. On a team like this. Where everyone praises. Everyone trusts. No one steps out too much, drip or no drip.

“… Or… there were three other guys on the floor with us, that will hurt them too. So they had to pick their poison.”

Some fans picked up and left when LeBron did. It got too difficult. Too many Henry Walkers and Danny Grangers. Too little Bosh. Too many poor offseason decisions, at least during 2016 and 2017. Too much heartache when Wade bolted, at least until he returned. Too little that was real, even that 30-11 finish to 2016-17 that duped the front office even more than it did the public. But this organization never stays down too long. It reinvents. It reinvigorates. It reminds you of what it has been, and likely will be again. Sunday, a kid who looks nothing like Wade brought back memories of how Wade introduced himself way back in 2003, with moments like these, moments that let you know he was different, and his teams would be different. Moments that made you look forward to years. Moments that confirm what we’ve been seeing and hearing since the spring and summer, when the moves all started to make sense — and if you started paying attention then, or even now, you picked a damn good time to come back.

Ethan J. Skolnick has covered the Miami Heat since 1996, and now hosts the Five on the Floor podcast. 

 

The Mourning Edition: The Miami Heat’s First Quarter Checkup

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Welcome to The Mourning Edition, Zach Buckley’s take on the biggest developments in Heat Nation.

The Miami Heat are the NBA’s most predictable team.

Unless they’re not.

They both are who we thought they were and nothing like we imagined. And they might metamorphose several times over during the upcoming months.

They have core philosophies built around dogged defense and cohesive culture, but so much about this iteration of South Beach’s finest remains unknown.

Miami might be way ahead of schedule. Or it may not be ready for the Association’s aristocracy. It could have its first alpha scorer of the post-Big Three era. But Jimmy Butler isn’t always looking for his shot, and a lot of times, he shouldn’t.

This could be a slow climb toward title contention. But if Pat Riley gets antsy, maybe he consolidates the prospect collection in a megamove for an accelerating star.

That’s a long-winded way of saying even at the quarter-mark of the 2019-20 season, it’s unclear who these Heat are⁠—or what they can become. Still, there’s enough data on file for us to take stock what’s real, what maybe isn’t and what could change down the road.

The Foundation

There are three key cogs in this Miami machine: Butler, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow. (If you’re unclear whether Winslow belongs in that triad, you should try watching a game some time.) OK, it’s really five with Riley and Erik Spoelstra added to the mix.

Under that quartet, the backbone becomes obvious. It’s defense, versatility and a military-like commitment to conditioning designed to exhaust the opposition.

“Miami’s always been the team that everybody around the league respects because they play hard, they have a DNA, they have an identity,” Phoenix Suns coach Monty Williams said.

“Their approach never changes in terms of who they are,” Golden State Warriors skipper Steve Kerr said during a recent visit to South Florida. “They’re always tough, defensive-minded.”

Some stoppers may be stingier than others, but the expectations are consistent across the board. When sharpshooting rookie Tyler Herro showed up, they tasked him with guarding Butler⁠—on day one.

Roughly two weeks into his NBA career, Herro booted Butler out of the way so he could defend Devin Booker, one of only 11 players ranked among the top-25 in points and assists per game.

That’s the manifestation of culture, the transfer of hoops DNA.

That’s how a team overhauls its roster—five of last season’s top nine in minutes played are gone, and one is out of the rotation (Dion Waiters)—and still snags the eighth overall spot in defensive efficiency, with ample room for improvement.

On the offensive end, the team-wide commitment to movement is no different.

When Butler arrives with a $140 million contract in hand and four All-Star selections to his credit and still shares the sugar, how can the rest not fall in line? No one has pondered that question, because everyone is on board. Miami, which doesn’t really have a natural point guard on the roster, sits sixth in assist percentage and seventh in points created by assists.

As Spo likes to put it, the Heat are “building habits.” The more they can carry forward, the more sustainable this success becomes.

The Possible Pitfalls

If the campaign closed today, Miami would have its third-highest winning percentage in franchise history.

Clearly, this club is better than almost everyone realized. But is it really headed toward a more successful season than three of the four Big Three campaigns? That’s probably asking too much of this roster.

Butler looks comfortable as a closer and capable of typically delivering whatever this team needs. But he doesn’t always seize control of this offense in moments when it’s obviously waiting on his guidance.

“Sometimes he’s too passive,” Bam Adebayo said earlier this season. “I got to get on his ass a little bit when he’s too passive. I got to over there and whisper in his ear and be like, ‘Yo, we didn’t bring you here to just pass.'”

Two of the Heat’s top-five scorers are freshmen. Some might chalk that up as Herro and Kendrick Nunn having advanced ability and maturity, and that’s partly true. But the players are still rookies, and it shows when they play away from AmericanAirlines Arena or against the league’s top competition.

Herro has been a 54.0 percent shooter and 48.7 percent three-point sniper inside the AAA. Away from it, those numbers plummet to 38.1 and 32.9, respectively. With Nunn, he loses nearly five field-goal percentage points (46.1 to 42.6) and more than 14 percentage points off his perimeter conversion rate (44.2 to 30.2) when he balls away from Biscayne.

The two have also struggled against the juggernauts. Boil down their production to contenders only—Boston, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Toronto—and Nunn becomes a 30 percent shooter (20 from deep) while Herro lands at 35.2 (32.6).

It’s emblematic of their offensive struggles overall against the league’s stone walls. As Heat.com’s Couper Moorhead observed, the Heat are 29th in offense against top 10 defenses and shot an anemic 31.8 percent from distance in those games.

None of this means the sky is falling. But there were reasons we all looked at this roster before the season and wondered if it had enough scoring or sniping.

The Growth Potential

The quarter checkup on the Heat gets no more encouraging than this—They have a 16-6 record despite being in the early stages of their evolution.

Butler will only get more comfortable grabbing control of this attack, as he already has with two triple-doubles in his last three games. Adebayo will keep developing on the offensive end; his flashes make you salivate. Winslow will find his niche, or given his Swiss Army knife abilities, maybe a dozen different niches.

Spo has some aces up his sleeve he may not reveal for months. His possible closing lineup of Butler, Adebayo, Winslow, Herro and Kelly Olynyk has logged just six minutes together. Swap out Herro for Goran Dragic, and you have a quintet that’s yet to see the floor.

Derrick Jones Jr. or James Johnson could give this rotation a new twist. Riley might give it a more dramatic makeover if a second star fits his price range and doesn’t disrupt the 2021 financial outlook.

We’ve seen plenty from the Heat, but almost assuredly not their best.

“We’re capable of it,” Butler told reporters recently. “We are. When we lock in and we worry about ourselves and we get lost in it and play hard, we’re going to be a very good team.”

Andy Ruiz Jr. vs. Anthony Joshua II: Going the Distance?

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Where to watch: Saturday, December 7, 2019, Ad Diriyah, Saudi Arabia, Available on DAZN.

June 1st 2019, was like any of many forgotten fight nights where little to no interest was paid to Anthony Joshua defending his Heavyweight titles in Madison Square Garden. The opponent, Andy Ruiz Jr., to the layman, was an unknown. To the boxing aficionado, Andy Ryuiz Jr., was a legitimate opponent that would push Joshua, and possibly draw a great performance for A”AJ” under the New York City lights.

The fight arrives, and it’s Anthony Joshua’s crowning moment, fighting for the first time before an American audience, sure to become an American pay per view star (DAZN Subscription service) in front of a sold out MSG. The contrast could not be clearer. Joshua, can win a best body contest, anywhere. He is tall, good looking, has knock out power, he is what a Boxing promoter dreams of, and sure enough Eddie Hearn (AJ’s promoter) is happy, all smiles at ringside. Andy Ruiz Jr. on the other hand, is short, is not a best body contest winner (being kind), and by mere appearance, this is a mismatch.

Then the fight starts.

Andy Ruiz Jr. pressed the action, threw punches in bunches, and gradually wore down the much hyped “AJ”. Ruiz, after being dropped, then proceeded to put the finishing touches on a 4 knockdown, 7th round TKO victory to become the Heavyweight Champion of the world. Then the examination began. Who was this guy? Well, he was a volume puncher, who was 32-1 coming into the fight with 21 knockouts, and a serious contender. Anthony Joshua learned the hard way. The rumors then quickly came down that AJ had been knocked out in training that week, and was near/or had a nervous breakdown the day of the fight.

 

Now, the rematch.

They built an arena from scratch in Diriyah, Saudi Arabia. It seats 15,000. It has luxury boxes, wet bars, and fittings fit for a King, and several in his immediate family as well. The fight card will start at Noon on the east coast of the United States, with 3:30pm being the scheduled entrance of the main event combatants. Odd isn’t it? Well, No, it’s not, when you realize they have guaranteed in excess of $75 Million Dollars for Joshua, and a sum similar for Ruiz. He who bids highest, gets the event.

On the fighting front, Anthony Joshua has changed things. Gone is the devotion to strength and conditioning. New, is the constant attention to tried and true boxing drills, like the heavy bag, the speed bag, and hitting the mitts. Back to basics. Ruiz on the other hand, has been in the media limelight due to his life changing victory. He bought a Rolls Royce. His training regimen hasn’t changed too much. He is still a underdog (as much as +200 in some places), and the conventional thinking is that Anthony Joshua will correct the record this time around.

So what happens this time? Joshua is visibly slimmer, and less muscular/thick than last time around. The back to basics training regimen seems to have done wonders, and AJ seems poised to fight more technical, respectful fight, rather than expose himself to the combinations that cost him the last fight. Andy Ruiz Jr. looks the same, and his game plan is simple. Press the pace. Use your Jab to get inside. Throw a high volume of punches. Overwhelm AJ once again. Easier said than done, and I will join the conventional wisdom. Anthony Joshua has no pressure from a large crowd of his countrymen (England) or the pressure to perform in front of an American audience. The cold presentation of this event will serve him well. I believe Joshua gets back to basics and stays behind his Jab this time, smothering the shorter Ruiz at every opportunity. A grab and Jab strategy could be enough for Joshua to wear down Ruiz, and build a considerable score card advantage, while setting up the opportunity for a stoppage.

Prediction: Anthony Joshua Wins by Unanimous Decision, 12 Rounds.

 

Alfredo Arteaga (@Alf_Arteaga) is one-third of the trio that does the Three Yards Per Carry (@3YardsPerCarry) podcast.

Houtz Special: From the depths of the chart, our Laird has risen

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With Kalen Ballage on IR, it is now time for Dolphins’ rookie running back Patrick Laird to become the savior we have long hoped for.

 The Miami Dolphins have been exceptionally bad at running the football in 2019. So bad, that the team is currently ranked dead last in the NFL—averaging 62.8 yards per game. Now, a lot of that can be accredited to the offensive line. However, a large portion of the blame can also be placed on second-year RB Kalen Ballage. After all, with Ballage now headed to IR, he finishes the season in the NFL record books, but not in a good way.

That’s right, folks. Ballage is the FIRST player in NFL history to finish the season with 60+ carries and an average of fewer than 2 yards per carry.

So, where do the Dolphins go from here?

Well, for starters the team just signed veteran RB Zach Zenner. They’ve also been very vocal about their plan to get rookie Myles Gaskin more involved. But the real talent in the Dolphins backfield and the player most fans are excited to see forge a role in O’Shea’s offense is The Intern, Patrick Laird. After all, his skill-set fits the mold of a New England-style RB. Laird is good at pass pro and can be a valuable asset in the passing game. He works hard every day and does all the little things right. He is a football player and one the Dolphins look forward to getting involved early and often vs New York.

In 2019, Laird has played only 89 offensive snaps and only touched the football 28 times this season. However, last week vs Philadelphia, Laird saw an uptick in production and scored his first career NFL touchdown. He then followed it up with a successful two-point conversion, the perfect scenario for a guy that many teams were scared to draft. His 14 touches and 42 offensive snaps (59%) indicate that he should get another chance to shine for the Jets this weekend.

Patrick Laird’s first career TD

Maybe, we’re getting a bit carried away about Laird. After all, he was an undrafted rookie from California. But then again, maybe we’re not. Laird once caught 48 consecutive targets at California. He’s an upgrade over the RBs Miami continued to trot out for much of the 2019 season. Best of all, he’s young and hungry. He also got quite a sense of humor. Earlier this week, he appeared on a Daily Fantasy podcast to discuss his growing success among fantasy owners.

The link to this podcast can be found HERE.

He also reflected on how he got his nickname, The Intern when he met with South Florida media yesterday afternoon.

 “So the story is I walked into the cafeteria that we have. I sit down with one of the operations guys and with him are some operations interns that were here during training camp. So I’m just talking and asking these guys questions. They’re all still in college and they’re undergrads, so I’m asking them what they like to do, what brought them here, how their time is going here, and then one of them goes: ‘So what do you do here?’

Oh, I’m on the team.’ And he was really apologetic. I didn’t take it – I wasn’t offended in any way. I thought it was funny, so I told that story to the team when I got called up one time, because they have the rookies come up during training camp just to entertain the team. So I told that story and people thought it was funny. Then the offensive coaches have been calling me that just for fun. They know I don’t take offense to it, so I think it’s funny. Then ‘Fitz’ (Ryan Fitzpatrick) mentioned that to the color commentator or the TV guys at some point. So they got a hold of it.”

No one knows how the reps will be divided in the Dolphins’ backfield moving forward. But Laird deserves a bulk of the opportunities. Sure, he may not be a three-down RB but he has done enough to be one of Miami’s RBs in 2020 and beyond. Remember Danny Woodhead? That is who I believe Laird best resembles, a faster, stronger Danny Woodhead. And for those that are old enough to remember, Woodhead was one of the league’s better pass-catching RBs for a short period of time.

Some may call Laird The Intern but the Dolphins defense has a much more fitting nickname for the rookie RB.

“Well the defensive side of the ball, I think they have a better nickname for me. They call me – the defensive guys – ‘White Lightning.’ Walt Aikens started that one.

We will see what White Lightning can do this week vs the New York Jets. Now if only the Dolphins can find their thunder because it appears they already have their lightning.

This article was written by Josh Houtz (@houtz) he believes in our Laird and Savior and has since the beginning of camp. Amen.

The Miami Marlins are moving in the fence 12 feet in center and right-center field.

Pressure Point: Marlins’ fences a good move; faux turf, we’ll see

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Welcome to Pressure Point by Craig Davis, commentary and analysis from a longtime observer and reporter of the South Florida sports scene and its teams.

The Marlins followed this week’s acquisition of two power hitters by announcing alterations to Marlins Park (via the Marlins media blog) that will be conducive to what they do best.

Certainly, newcomers Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar will be pleased to learn the Marlins are moving in the fences 12 feet in center field and right-center. So will returning hitters who have been stymied by vast outfield dimensions that make the Grand Canyon seem cozy.

It remains to be seen how much those same players embrace the other major change to the ballpark that was revealed Wednesday – that the team is installing a synthetic grass surface for next season.

This new Shaw Sports Turf is the same artificial turf as the Arizona Diamondbacks put in Chase Field before last season.

The Marlins are making the switch for the same reason. Like the D’Backs, they have struggled mightily to maintain a natural grass field in the retractable-roof ballpark in Little Havana.

Mixed reviews in ‘Zona

Arizona management is thrilled with the new faux field in Phoenix. Aesthetically, it’s a huge hit.

While D’Backs president/CEO Derrick Hall claims it to be safer and cuts back on injuries, the reviews from players – particularly outfielders – have been mixed. Some have blamed it for back and hamstring problems and report an overall physical toll on their bodies from playing on it regularly.

That raises concern for the Marlins, as the Arizona experience is the only gauge on this particular turf as the first test case. The Texas Rangers’ new ballpark opening in March will also have it.

“Turf is turf; it’s never going to be like real grass and everybody knows that,” Diamondbacks left fielder David Peralta said in an Arizona Republic story about the turf. “We just have to be smart. It can get you pretty good with your hamstring or back and everything.”

Fellow outfielders Adam Jones and Ketel Marte expressed similar views about the effects of playing on it regularly.

No question that the Shaw Sports Turf surface, known as B1K: Batting A Thousand, is much more sophisticated than artificial fields that have been used in the past. Much effort has been put into making it as close to the real thing as possible with current technology.

Arizona players have said they haven’t had a problem with bad bounces, but that the turf does play slower. The latter was supported by data showing a notable decrease in batting average on ground balls hit with an exit velocity of 90 mph or harder, according to Baseball Savant.

“Obviously, I think everybody would rather play on regular grass,” Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed told the Arizona Republic, while acknowledging the problems the team has had in maintaining live grass.

Some relief for hitters

The Marlins’ experience has mirrored that of Arizona. They’ve used grow lights at night. They have tried at least three different types of turfgrass – two strains of bermudagrass as well as a specialized Paspalum sod. They even tried using one type of grass in the infield and another in the outfield.

Unfortunately, none of it worked satisfactorily.

In the announcement of the switch, Michael Hill, Marlins president of baseball operations said, “While playing the Diamondbacks in Arizona, we were able to get a close look and examine the new surface at Chase Field. We agreed as an organization that this change was for the best after our players and staff had encouraging remarks regarding the playability of the playing surface.”

It will unquestionably be more pleasing to the eye. The field at Marlins Park always lost its luster as the season progressed, especially in the outer reaches of the outfield.

There will be less real estate out there with the fence moving in, and that is a welcome development.

Previous ownership miscalculated in their quest to tailor the ballpark toward pitching when it was built. Instead they created dimensions greatly out of proportion with most of Major League Baseball.

That has been a sore spot with hitters since the park opened, including Giancarlo Stanton, who hated the distant fences and even more so being asked about them.

The size of the outfield got into Christian Yelich’s head. No coincidence that he suddenly became a home run hitter playing in Milwaukee’s more comfy Miller Park.

Fairer dimensions welcome

“As we enhance the playing surface at Marlins Park, we felt it was also appropriate to take the opportunity to evaluate our outfield dimensions,” Marlins CEO Derek Jeter said in the statement. “We made the decision to adjust the distance of the outfield fence, which will now be more in line with the field dimensions you see across many of today’s ballparks.”

This will be the second time the fences have been moved (2016). The change will begin at the end of the digital scoreboard in front of AutoNation Alley in center field and extend to right-center at the start of the visitors’ bullpen.

The distance in straightaway center field will now be 400 feet with the gap in right-center at 387 feet.

It will still be a spacious outfield. And if the artificial turf does play slower it will still skew toward a pitcher’s park.

For a team intent on improving offensive output, bringing in the fences is a good move.

As for giving up on real grass, there is reason to be skeptical about that.

Jake’s Take: DeVante Parker shining after four seasons clouded by doubt

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After four seasons of underwhelming performances, injuries and benchings, wide receiver DeVante Parker is playing like a first round pick.

The Dolphins entered the 2015 draft needing a game-changing wide receiver. Parker was described as a player who can dominate with his 6’3” frame and 33-inch arm length. The Dolphins saw his strengths in performances against New York and Baltimore in his rookie season. He caught seven targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the two-game span.

Parker’s weaknesses were also on display. He struggled with injuries in his senior season at Louisville and quickly developed a reputation as an injury-prone receiver.

“I was perceived as a bust,” Parker said after Sunday’s win over the Eagles. “The thing has changed now.”

The Dolphins cleared out Adam Gase and his coaching staff after a disapointing 2018 season.

Owner Stephen Ross mentioned on how he wanted the Dolphins to build a team the right way. General Manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores spent the offseason searching for players with low risk and high potential — without breaking the bank. Despite remaining in Miami, it was a fresh start for Parker with a new coaching staff running the show in Miami.

“They gave me another chance,” Parker said. “They didn’t have to.”

After declining Parker’s fifth-year option, Miami signed the 6’3″ receiver to a new two-year deal worth $10 million with a team option for 2020.

After a bumpy start, Parker is showcasing top-tier talent.

Miami lost to the Chargers back on Sept. 29, but Parker had a solid day catching all four of his targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. It was followed by a 28-yard performance against Washington. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick entered the game late in the third quarter, Parker brought down a touchdown.

For just the second time in his career, he had touchdowns in back-to-back weeks.

While the performances were encouraging, it was a story that we’ve heard before. Nobody ever doubted Parker’s talent, it was the consistency that was questioned.

Parker provided an answer the following week with 55 yards and another touchdown against Buffalo on Oct. 10. For the first time in his career, Parker had touchdowns in three straight weeks. To put that into perspective, Parker played 24 games in the 2017-18 seasons and finished with a combined two touchdowns.

“He’s worked extremely hard,” coach Flores said. “This is very important to him. Football is very important to him. He’s a guy who puts the team first, and we’re really happy with the way he’s played in games; but also how he interacts with the team and how on a day-to-day basis, he’s really shown a professional approach to how to do this.”

The three-week stretch with touchdowns was a great sign for Parker. However, Parker was drafted in the first round because he is capable with much more. Parker entered Sunday’s game against the Eagles with at least 55 yards in seven-straight weeks. Keep in mind, he was yet to completely take over a game — like most scouts believed he was capable of.

To solidify his arrival of a top-tier receiver, Parker needed to dominate a game and that is just what he did against Philadelphia. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with Parker for seven receptions on 10 targets for 159 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 22 yards per reception.

“It felt great. I’m still here,” Parker said. “I know I still have the ability to make plays and do whatever I can to help the team.”

“He’s been playing great all year,” tight end Mike Gesicki added. “I couldn’t be more happy for his because he’s taken a lot of criticism that he didn’t deserve in the past and he’s been making a ton of plays, so I’m really happy for him.”

Whether Parker has put it all together in his fifth season or offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea is using him correctly — it is time to view Parker as a top-tier receiver.

With four games still remaining in 2019 Parker has 53 receptions for 854 yards and six touchdowns. He is four receptions from topping his career high back in 2017 and has already secured a new high in both yards (previously 744) and touchdowns (four).

His most impressive stat highlights his consistency. Parker has converted 42 first downs in 2019, cracking his previous high of 34.

“As you get older in this league, you understand that those things are very important and that everything you do counts,” Flores said. “I think there’s a level of maturity that if you can – if we can get guys to mature as quickly as possible, that’s the goal for each staff on every team. I think he’s – I wasn’t here with him prior to this – my dealings with DeVante have been very good, and I think he’s really taken a professional approach and he’s done a very good job.”

It is hard to imagine Miami declining his 2020 player option. In fact, the Dolphins are projected to have over $100 million in cap space next season. Grier and the front office may look to lock up Parker as the team’s number-one receiver for years to come.

Whatever direction the Dolphins decide to go, it is safe to say that Parker has arrived as a top-tier receiver in the National Football League.

 

 

Pressure Point: Marlins finally giving fans reason for hope

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Welcome to Pressure Point by Craig Davis, commentary and analysis from a longtime observer and reporter of the South Florida sports scene and its teams.

Jack McKeon had a saying he repeated often during his second tour as manager of the Marlins in 2011: “The worm will turn.”

Ol’ Trade Jack was betting that the team’s fortunes would eventually change for the better.

They never did in that 72-90 season. Nor have they in the eight seasons that followed with the move to Marlins Park the following year.

The Miami Marlins haven’t had a winning record during their time in Little Havana. The recently completed 105-loss season was the second-worst in team history.

But the long-downtrodden franchise may finally be ready to fulfill McKeon’s prophesy. Entering the third year of the Derek Jeter/Bruce Sherman regime, there are signs the worm is beginning to turn.

Moves add pop to lineup

The moves Monday that netted proven power hitters Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar – both were All-Stars within the past two years – without sacrificing any of the valuable young talent in their system were the latest indications that times are changing.

Notably, they were willing to pay Villar a salary expected to be in the neighborhood of $10.4 million next year when his previous team, the Orioles, were not.

Villar isn’t a past-prime package. He’s 28, a switch-hitter coming off a season in which he batted .274 with 24 home runs and 73 RBI while playing all 162 games for Baltimore. He’s a legitimate leadoff candidate who had 40 stolen bases and scored 111 runs.

His WAR rating of 4.0 last season was the same as Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo, and better than Michael Conforto, Gleyber Torres and Jose Altuve, according to Fangraphs.

Villar can also play throughout the infield and in the outfield.

Miami gave up minor-league lefty Easton Lucas to get him. Lucas wasn’t among their top 30 prospects.

Aguilar, 29, comes as a bargain, the slugging first baseman claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay. He is projected to get about $2.5 million via arbitration and is one season removed from hitting 35 homers for the Brewers.

Granted that was playing in Miller Park – see Christian Yelich’s power numbers in Milwaukee compared to Marlins Park. But Aguiliar offers the sort of pop Miami’s punchless offense lacked the past two seasons.

Roster trending upward

It is always a bit surreal when the Marlins open their checkbook. Before Monday they had the projected lowest payroll in the minors.

But Jeter and Co. already made the surprising move of eating $22 million to dump useless lefty Wei-Yin Chen to open a roster spot for a young player who can be a future asset.

Acquiring Villar and Aguilar were smart yet thrifty baseball moves for genuine major-leaguers who can upgrade the most anemic lineup in the game. Villar essentially inherits the salary the Marlins were paying Starlin Castro, and there are more dimensions to his game.

This is not to suggest the Marlins are ready to challenge the World Series champion Nationals and NL East-winning Braves in the division.

Nonetheless, these upgrades fit into a trend of encouraging signs that Jeter’s rebuilding plan is headed in the right direction.

Notably, 24 of the players on the current 40-man roster have been obtained since the ownership change just over two years ago.

Presumably, an effort will be made to address needs in the bullpen and for another bat in the outfield at the Winter Meetings next week in San Diego.

For the first time in too long there is reason to watch instead of averting your eyes.

Patience showing promise

Suddenly, Marlins followers finding reason to feel frisky on Twitter for a change. Good to see their faces unobscured by paper bags.

Everyone else responds with mild shock spiced by well-worn digs. What, the blind squirrel got an acorn and didn’t choke on it?

The Marlins, with their long track record of being chintzy and out of step with the rest of baseball, will be regarded as suspects until they prove otherwise. As well they should.

They don’t have to be forever Sisyphus in knickers, though.

Jeter’s rebuilding plan is starting to take on an encouraging form. Ultimately, the fate of this rebuilding effort will depend on the young prospects panning out.

The best indication is that the farm system, which was as empty as the bleachers on a weeknight when Jeter started, is now ranked fourth by mlb.com.

There are intriguing arms at all levels of the system, and now some promising hitters are rising toward the top of the pipeline.

That is not to say they are all budding All-Stars. And the process of blossoming young talent is always painstaking and often painful, as evidenced by the struggles of Lewis Brinson and Isan Diaz to find their way in the majors.

Nonetheless, on the brink of a new decade, there is reason to believe the Marlins outlook is beginning a turn for the better and to actually look forward to spring training.