Dolphins Win Rams

5 Takeaways from the Dolphins Win Over the Rams

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The Miami Dolphins (4-3) did something most didn’t expect on Sunday: they dominated the Los Angeles Rams (5-3). The vast majority of football pundits called this a win for the Rams. Local and national media keyed on Tua Tagovailoa’s first career start. But it was the defense that dominated in this 28-17 victory.

The win over the Rams stands as Miami’s third straight victory and has propelled them into the thick of the AFC playoff race. Here’s a look at five takeaways from the Dolphins win over the LA Rams.

Win Over the Rams: Dolphins on a Roll

The Dolphins entered Sunday’s game looking to improve their playoff position while breaking in a new quarterback. Much of the discourse ahead of this game surrounded Miami’s decision to go with Tagovailoa and doing so in the midst of a postseason push.

Many questioned the change. Ryan Fitzpatrick had the Dolphins’ prospects looking up and some wondered if going with an unproven rookie may have undercut Miami’s chances. The defense, meanwhile, disregarded those questions and came to play yet again.

With the victory, the Dolphins have now won three games in a row for the first time since 2018. It’s the first time the Dolphins have won three games in a row by 10-plus points since 2014. Miami has won four of its past five and is 9-7 in its last 16 games. The team is above .500 for the first time in the Brian Flores era.

This stretch arrives as Miami’s schedule softens some. Four of the Dolphins’ next five games come against teams with losing records. If Miami can go 4-1 over that span, they’ll enter the home stretch 8-4 and likely in strong playoff position.

Dolphins Defense Dominating

The Dolphins held the Rams to just 17 points in Sunday’s win. With that performance, Miami’s D vaulted to the top of the NFL in terms of scoring defense. This group allows just 18.6 points-per-game, the lowest mark in the league.

What’s helped Miami maintain this defensive dominance is quarterback pressure. On Sunday, the Dolphins registered their 18th and 19th sacks of the season, ninth most. In addition to the sacks, the Dolphins hit Jared Goff another six times.

“The key to the game was just attack Jared Goff,” said Dolphins DE Emmanuel Ogbah after the game. “As a defense we did a good job rushing them, rushing coverage, going head-to-head, rolling all them boys back; that did a great job for us and we got a chance to get back there.”

The Dolphins pressured Goff throughout and prevented the Rams’ QB from finding a consistent rhythm until it was too late. Miami managed four takeaways, intercepting Goff twice and forcing two Goff fumbles. The Dolphins’ 13 takeaways this season are tied for second-most in the NFL thus far.

In addition, Miami broke up 13 pass attempts. The Dolphins now have two players in the top-10 in Passes Defensed. Eric Rowe’s nine pass breakups are tied for sixth-most and Xavien Howard’s eight are tied for ninth-most.

The Dolphins’ dominance on third down continued in this one as well. The Rams converted 7-of-17 third down tries, but many of those came late. For the season, Miami’s 33.3 percent third-down conversion rate stands tied for second lowest in the league.

Dolphins Win Over the Rams: Jakeem Grant Value Trending Up

Jakeem Grant broke the game open with his 88-yard second quarter punt return. For the third time in his career, Grant took a punt for a touchdown. With the score, Grant became the all-time franchise leader in punt return TDs. He’d been tied with Freddie Solomon, Tom Vigorito and O.J. McDuffie prior.

“All credit to my teammates that were on the unit,” Grant said of the return. “I don’t even think I got touched, so like I said, man, it’s all credit to them.”

The 88-yard punt return stands as the longest in Dolphins history. The previous record was 87 yards by Vigorito (9/10/1981 vs Pittsburgh) and Ted Ginn Jr. (11/18/2007 at Philadelphia). His 816 career punt return yards moves Grant to sixth all-time for Miami. He passed Scott Schwedes (732 yards), Jarvis Landry (804) and Solomon (810) up the chart.

But Grant did not just contribute on Special Teams. He made a 15-yard reception on a comeback route late in the first quarter. The first down put Miami inside the Rams’ 10-yardline and helped set up the game-tying touchdown. Grant has a budding connection with Tagovailoa, and his speed could be integrated more into the offense.

Ogbah & Rowe Continue To Play Well

Ogbah continues his dominant play from his defensive end position. Ogbah’s strip-sack of Goff in the second quarter led to a 78-yard scoop-and-score by linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel. The Dolphins took the lead on the play and never looked back.

Ogbah has now registered a sack in each of the last four games and has at least a half sack in every game since Week 1. His streak of four-straight games with a sack is the longest since Cameron Wake picked up a sack in five straight in 2016. His sixth sacks in 2020 are tied for sixth-most in the NFL.

Rowe, meanwhile, continued his dominance against tight ends. Against the Rams, Rowe recorded five passes defensed, a career-high, and an interception in the win for the Dolphins. He dropped what would have been a pick-six as well.

“Kind of through the week, we caught wind of ‘Rams defense this, Rams defense that.’ We’re like, ‘man, they need to worry about our defense,’ and that was one of our focuses on mind to show up,” Rowe said after the game.

“People keep sleeping on our defense and that’s fine, but we’re going to show up every week.”

Dolphins Over the Rams: Tua Plays Well Enough to Win

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The fanfare over Tagovailoa’s start remained the headline in the lead up to this one, but it didn’t look great at the beginning. Tagovailoa suffered a strip-sack turnover at the hands of Aaron Donald on his second snap as a starter. To his credit, though, Tagovailoa came back and played well enough for the Dolphins to secure the win over the Rams.

Tagovailoa finished 12-of-22 for just 93 yards and a touchdown, in addition to the fumble. The offensive game plan seemed conservative and Tagovailoa’s receivers dropped at least four passes, including two that would have resulted in a first down.

“I don’t think I played to the standard of what this offense is capable of,” Tagovailoa said after the game. “There were certain plays where I could have stepped up and made the right throw, made the right decision.

“Aside from that, thank God we’ve got a good defense, so when we do start to string good plays together, we know that we can be able to make plays and then get the ball back and continue to try to do the same.”

Tagovailoa admitted he could’ve played better, but he said he also enjoyed the game as well. He particularly enjoyed getting hit.

“I’m not going to lie, I did enjoy getting hit that first time. That was definitely a welcome.”

The Dolphins (4-3) head to Arizona to face the Cardinals (5-2) in Week 9. Get the Five Reasons Sports original Tua shirt HERE!

And don’t miss the Five Reasons Dolphins Postgame show below!

Tua Tagovailoa had reason to celebrate as the Dolphins won in his first NFL start against the Rams.

Miami Dolphins: Week 8 Stock Report

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Welcome back guys to another installment of Stock Up Stock Down. This was the most anticipated game in my memory following our Dolphins and while the Offense did not play the way we would like, the team did enough to prove that its not a liability and can in fact still compete for a playoff spot with a rookie QB at the helm. With so much to dissect let’s dive right in:

Stock Up

Ogbah:

During the Bye Week I went back and really looked at and analyzed the play of Emmanuel Ogbah who has been on a tear.

 

This week was just another day in the office for Ogbah as he was a huge part of the pressure that caused Goff to look as pedestrian as he did. Ogbah was able to get another sack this game marking the 6th straight game with at least .5 of a sack as well as another deflected pass showing his complete game.

 

Elandon Roberts:

Elandon started off the year with a big role which he seemed to have been losing before the injury that ultimately made him miss a game. After missing time, he has looked better and better with each passing game. Against the Rams Roberts made 2 of the loudest hits I have ever heard on a football field. On one play he blew up the lead blocker so bad that he made the blocker tackle the ball carrier.

 

 

Jerome Baker:

After a questionable couple of games after his monster performance Week 1, it is nice to see Jerome put back to back elite games together. This afternoon Jerome was all over the field wreaking havoc on a Rams Offense. Jerome not only did his job on the run game with 13 tackles (5 solo), but also rushing the passer with 1 QB hit and even 1 Pass Defended.

 

 

Eric Rowe:

Another player that I did a deep dive in this past week.

 

Eric showed all afternoon long his versatility and why this coaching staff trusts him with so much. Eric showed his love for contact with 7 tackles (5 solo), his prowess for defending the pass with an unreal 5 PD and lastly, not just the interception he did get but also the one that he almost had which would have surely been a house call for a touchdown. This has become Coach Flo ultimate chess piece as he can be put anywhere and handle any role or assignment.

 

 

 

Team Chemistry:

With all the media and national noise about how terrible of a move it was to go to Tua and how veterans won’t play as hard when they know the organization is only looking at the future, it was hard to see as complete of a team performance as the one we saw Sunday, actually happening. The Defense harassed Goff into 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles lost with one being taken to the house. Special teams taking a punt to the house. Even all the love shown after Tua’s first touchdown of his career showed a team that wanted to fight for their new QB and to shut up the national media as we have a team can compete now for a playoff spot.

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Trust the Flocess

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Stock Down

 

Myles Gaskin:

After such a positive performance against the Jets, Myles unfortunately came back down to Earth. With 47 yards on 18 carries an average of 2.6 yards per carry is cringe-worthy, add to that 6 targets, 2 drops, and only 3 catches for 16 yards and it leads back to the question of why we haven’t given these type of opportunities to either Breida or even Jordan Howard. Multiple times on 3rd and short and he just was unable to get the 1 or 2 yards necessary to keep the offense on the field.How many more of these below average performances before we start to give opportunities to others on the team.

 

 

Offense:

As good as a team performance as we had, the one unit that did not hold its end of the deal was the Offense. We only had 8 first downs all afternoon while the Rams had 31 first downs. The offense only ran 48 plays compared to the rams 92. The 2 most alarming stats of the offense was Total Yards with only 145 compared to 471 for the Rams and 3rd down conversions with the Dolphins struggling to the tune of 3 out of 12 converted successfully.

 

 

 

Rush Defense:

In a game that closing the 2nd quarter we were up 28-10, it seems next to impossible to consider how the Rams were still able to run the ball for 4.5 yards per carry. This is now the 3rd week in a row where I find myself mentioning that without the lead our opponents would have ran the ball for what may have been over 200 yards. What is most concerning is with the Rams pass effectively neutralized because of the pass rush, we still allowed them to rush it 29 times with no answer.

 

Overall this win puts us over .500 for the first time since November 4th, 2018. Tua and the offense are going to have figure out a better game plan to get him comfortable. We put a lot on tape to analyze this upcoming week as we get ready to travel and face Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Follow me @exclusvty on twitter to get a close-up analysis this week of Tua and others. Till next time guys, Fins Up!

 

 

 

KZ Okpala Is Up Next For Miami

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It was no coincidence that Miami’s second round draft pick KZ Okpala went through a similar rookie season as second year player Duncan Robinson.

Duncan went through his rookie year with a two-way contract, spending most of his time getting ready for the Sioux Falls Skyforce team. He put up an intriguing stat line of 21 points a game, along with close to 5 threes per game as well.

Chet Kammerer even told the Sun Sentinel, “We purposely didn’t bring him in,” which is exactly what I’ve been saying Miami has been doing with KZ Okpala all along.

Although KZ wasn’t putting up 21 a game in the G-League, he was filling up the stat sheet quite nicely. He averaged 12 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists, but what jumped out most was his 1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks a game.

Something I’ve noticed with the G-League is that it always seems to spotlight a player’s strength, like Duncan hitting 5 threes a game. And KZ’s spotlight has clearly been on the defensive side of the ball.

Obviously his length and quickness to guard guys out on the perimeter is just a God-given talent, but his tenacity and energy on defense just screams Heat culture.

And it’s hard to truly talk about a player’s defensive abilities until he’s guarding players in the actual league, but he seemed to showcase that talent when he got inserted into the game against Sacramento early in the season.

 

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The first thing that stood out from his defensive abilities that night was how quick he can move his feet. They played a lot of zone in that game with him at the top of it, and he just never stopped moving. And you may say that the word length is overstated at times with players, but KZ definitely used it to his advantage. Kings players had major trouble trying to get good shots off over his contests.

The only downfall that was shown in that game was foul trouble. He makes it such a priority to put as much effort as possible on that side of the ball, that he begins to reach which forces the whistle to get blown. Some of it may have had something to do with the fact that he had a small frame, but it’s clear he’s continued to add muscle and change his body.

With Derrick Jones Jr possibly leaving in free agency, it’s the perfect opportunity for KZ to step up into a new role in Miami’s rotation. Miami always seems to put the ultimate amount of trust in their players, which is why they started Duncan Robinson and Erik Spoelstra made comments prior to the season that he’s the best shooter in the NBA.

I believe they show KZ that same exact trust by giving him an increased amount of minutes on the first game of the season.

Once again, it’s not a coincidence that they gave KZ a year to work himself in like Duncan did, it’s just their process.

There’s also a reason that Miami seems reluctant to include KZ Okpala in trade packages for solid players. It’s because Pat Riley and the Heat front office see something in him, and that speaks major volume.

Naoya Inoue vs Jason Moloney Main Card Pick & Predictions

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Main Event: Naoya Inoue vs Jason Moloney for WBA WORLD, IBF WORLD Bantamweight Titles

Pick: Naoya Inoue

By: KO/TKO

Single Round: 3rd round 

Winning Group of Rounds: 1-4

Fight Goes the Distance: No                                                                                                                                                                           

Breakdown: The Monster Naoya Inoue is coming in fresh off an 8 streak of KO’s. He’s shown to have an immense amount of power and with his ability to diversify his strikes and go to both the body and the head, his opponent has to stay on their toes trying to guess which block is the right one. For Maloney, this is one of the toughest challenges of his career. It’s hard to see Maloney being able to withstand the onslaught of the monster, so more than likely, Inoue takes this one by KO and imposes his will early in the fight. 

 

Co-Main Event: Ewa Brodnicka vs. Mikaela Mayer for WBO WORLD FEMALE SUPER FEATHERWEIGHT TITLE

 

Pick: Mikaela Mayer

By: Decision

Fight Goes the Distance: Yes                                                                                                                                                                      

Breakdown: Mayer is the rising star coming out of the United States, and it seems like its time for her to rise up to becoming a champion. After holding the belt for a few years, Ewa has shown she has the skills to beat about anyone. Her skills have slowed down in the latter part of the career and Mayer is still hitting her prime. Mayer will work her down over the course of the fight and win by decision.

 

Fight #3: Robson Conceicao vs. Luis Coria

 

Pick: Robson Conceicao

By: Decision

Fight Goes the Distance: Yes                                                                                                                                                                      

Breakdown: Robson Conceicao is still building up his resume and Luis Coria is nothing more than someone standing in his way Look for Robson to take advantage of the less skilled Coria and outwork him. Robson will dictate the pace and could honestly win all 12 rounds if that’s something he wants to do. Either way, squash match for Robson and he’s going home with a win.

 

Fight #4: Jared Anderson vs. Luis Eduardo Pena

 

Pick:Jared Anderson

By: KO 

Round: 1-3

Fight Goes the Distance: No                                                                                                                                                                      

Breakdown: Jared Anderson is coming in with an undefeated record of 6-0 with 6 knockouts. For Anderson, he’s still young at only 20 years old and he can work his way up into being a contender at heavyweight if he continues to hone his skills. Luis Pena is a lower ranked prospect with not the power that Anderson has. ANderson wins this one in the first few rounds by KO

 

Fight #5: Andy Hiraoka vs. Rickey Edwards

 

Pick: Andy Hiraoka

By: Decision

Fight Goes the Distance: Yes                                                                                                                                                                    

Breakdown: At 15-0 Hiraoka is another star on the rise. While many of his wins have been against no names, he still continues to deliver. This is another fight as he builds up his record to challenge for a title. Rickey Edwards all around is less skilled and the footwork in this matchup will really be the key. Hiraoka will be able to dictate the pace and over the course of the fight, he will win a decision. 

 

Fight #6: George Acosta vs. Andres Cortes

 

Pick: Andres Cortes

By: Decision

Fight Goes the Distance: Yes                                                                                                                                                                    

Breakdown: Cortes is coming in at 13-0 at only 23 years old. He faces off against a George Acosta who at this point has a blemish on his record at 10-1. He goes up against the superior boxer in Cortez. For Cortz to win this fight, he will need to make sure that he keeps the volume high in order to outpace Acosta. Acosta wont go down easily so we see Andres Cortes winning by decision. 

 

Would Miami Consider Dennis Schroder?

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The point guard position may not be much of a worry for Miami as of right now, since they have Tyler Herro possibly switching over, a 20th pick consideration, and of course Goran Dragic. The only issue is that although it seems very likely Miami will resign Goran, there’s still a small chance it doesn’t work out.

If Miami was to go into next season without Goran Dragic, a veteran point guard would be pretty ideal.

Dennis Schroder would definitely be an option for Miami through trade, since he’s going into the last year of his deal next season.

He’s coming off of a very impressive season averaging 19 points a game off the bench. The shooting even improved this year since he hit about two threes a game, shooting 39% which was a career best.

 

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I think it’s pretty obvious what Schroder gives you offensively, but what stands out now is the other side of the ball.

Schroder probably had one of his best defensive seasons of his career this past season. He’s very feisty and energetic on the defensive side of the ball, which led to him being an absolute havoc against opposing guards.

He actually was fourth in Defensive Win Shares among all of the other guards in the NBA during the regular season.

And when discussing the fit on this current Heat team, I believe it’s a pretty good one.

For one, Schroder thrived most this season when playing in lineups with two other ball-handlers, like Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And if he gets inserted into lineups with Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo, he should be able to thrive very similarly.

I also believe he wants a starting position in this league, and that won’t happen in OKC unless Chris Paul gets traded. And he’d definitely start on this Heat team since they’re in need of a defensive guard.

Once again, I don’t believe that Miami and Goran Dragic will part ways since Pat Riley made it clear in his press conference that they’re looking to take care of him. But if they were to move on, I believe Dennis could be a guy that they consider.

UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Hall Pick & Predictions

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Main Event: Anderson Silva vs #10 Uriah Hall

 

Pick: Uriah Hall

By: KO 

Round: 3rd Round

Breakdown: Anderson Silva is making his last stand in the UFC with his fight against Uriah Hall. In his farewell match, he’s facing a knockout artist and if he isn’t careful, might get met with the same fate. Hall is coming having won 10 of his 15 by knockout. Silva is coming in having lost 5 of his last 6 dating to 2013. At 45 he isn’t the same as the champion we knew, but the fight IQ is still there. For him to win this match he would need to avoid the power of Uriah for 5 rounds and that is a tough ask for someone his age. Uriah has more of the power and I see Anderson looking as human as ever, while Hall secures a win to boost his legacy as a fighter. 

 

Co-Main Event: Bryce Mitchell vs Andre Fili 

Pick: Bryce Mitchell 

By: Submission

Round: 3rd Round

Breakdown: This fight has “Fight of the Night” written all over it. Both fighters have the ability to take it to the ground and on top of that the striking of Fili should bring out the best in Mitchell. Mitchell has a clear advantage on the ground whether it’s off his back or off the top. He does have the ability to initiate the takedown and bring the fight down himself, a weakness for many submission specialists. I see the stand-up game slightly favor Fili, but Mitchell can more than well hold his own. Although Fili outstrikes Mitchell on a 4 to 2 advantage on a per-minute basis, Mitchell is more accurate at 60% compared to 35% and absorbs less at a 1.3 to 4 shot ratio. Fili takes more than he gives and as long as Mitchell stays the course, the stand-up game could allow him to accumulate more strikes and win over the judges if this goes to a decision. Mitchell is sure to try and take this fight down and if he’s able to get respect for his stand-up game, that will make this all the more beneficial when taking a shot for a takedown. Fili has the ability to win this fight and by no means is this a cakewalk, but Mitchell is 13-0 with 9 submissions for a reason. Mitchell wears out Fili and submits him in the third. 

 

Fight #3: Kevin Holland vs Charlie Ontiveros

Pick: Kevin Holland

By: KO

Round: 2nd Round

Breakdown: Charlie Ontiveros is coming in on short notice and going up in weight. For Kevin Holland, I don’t see any way he can really lose this fight. He’s a much better striker although Ontiveros offers some fun striking ability. If he tries to make a name off Holland, we will see Kevin really in his element. He’s going to beat up on Ontiveros and then talk to him while he does it until he knocks you out. Holland is the much better wrestler as well and in this fight, he’s going to be the one who imposes his will and takes the win. 

 

Fight #4: Greg Hardy vs Maurice Greene

Pick: Greg Hardy

By: KO

Round: 1st Round

Breakdown: In this heavyweight bout, you’d have to give the power advantage to Hardy, but Greene does seem to have an advantage in technical ability. Hardy comes in fighting his 6th UFC fight, and he seems to grow in between every fight. If he comes in and catches Greene once, that’s going to be it. On the other hand, Greene has to play a very safe fight to win. If he’s been working on his wrestling, attempting to get Hardy on his back would neutralize the power and wear him out. We haven’t seen that from Greene yet and by looking at what you know in this fight, Hardy is a level above Greene in the striking department and this can be a quick night for him if he’s coming looking to make a splash in the Heavyweight division. 

Fight #5: Bobby Green vs Thiago Moises

Pick: Bobby Green

By: Decision

Breakdown: Bobby Green is having a career resurrection. He’s going for his 4th win this year and is working his way up the rankings. He’s seemed to put it all together with his wrestling and his striking. Moises is still young at 25 and he still has a lot of room to grow. Bobby Green has the technical advantage on the feet and also has the ability to dictate the takedowns. If this fight gets into the clinch, we could see Green get those knees to the body working and he also does a good job of digging underhooks into a body lock takedown. If he decides to keep it standing, he will have an edge on the feet and has a 75% takedown defense if he decides to keep it standing. Moises best shot is to try to submit Green but it is unlikely that we see Green end up on his back, thus we are taking Green by decision.

 

You can follow Johnathan @ThreePieceCombo on Twitter. 

Dolphins Rams

5 Keys to Dolphins vs Rams in Tua’s debut

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The Miami Dolphins (3-3) made headline news during the bye week. The switch to Tua Tagovailoa initiated a cascade of national coverage. Football pundits fell on either side of the fence. A heated debate over the Dolphins offensive line unfolded on Twitter. And all of this amped up the excitement of Dolphins fans as the game versus the Ram (5-2) approaches.

The matchup of a Brian Flores defense versus a Sean McVay offense last happened in Super Bowl LII. New England shut down the Jared Goff-led Rams in the lowest scoring Super Bowl of all-time. Flores’s defense frustrated Goff by alternating looks. That might be something seen in Week 8, especially considering Kyle Van Noy, a key player in Patriot’s defensive effort then, will be on the field for Miami.

At 3-3, Miami is one game out of first place in the AFC East. A win here would be the team’s third in a row and keep them in the thick of the playoff race. The Rams, meanwhile, travel east for an early game on a short week.

Here’s a look at five keys to the Dolphins versus the Rams in Week 8.

Dolphins vs Rams: Be Patient

The Rams defense allows for short completions in the passing game, so be patient. The defense doesn’t disguise coverages often and tends to play straight-up. The deployment of Aaron Donald remains fairly consistent.

LA occasionally tries to disguise their backend coverages through alignment. They hide their 2-deep coverage with an initial Quarters look. Sometimes, they lineup in Quarters then play man-to-man with two deep safeties.

These are approaches that Tagovailoa had success against while at Alabama. These coverages can leave openings in the defense while the defenders flex into the different positions. But the key will be Tagovailoa’s ability to recognize the coverage and deliver the ball to the appropriate place, even if it’s short.

 

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Attack Darius Williams

LA paid a high price for All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey. He tends to travel from the outside to the slot. Ramsey occasionally mirrors the opponent’s best receiver. He allows just 53.5 percent of passes completed, giving up 5.33 yards per target. While he can be challenged, the Dolphins might look elsewhere.

Ramsey may draw the DeVante Parker assignment for the Rams. Parker’s been the focal point of Miami’s passing attack thus far. He’s seen 40 targets and made 29 catches for 364 yards and two touchdowns, but all of that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Rams other wide corner is Darius Williams. He’s 5-foot-9, 187-pounds. Williams will likely matchup against Preston Williams, who stands at 6-foot-5 and has caught a touchdown in three of the last four weeks.

Dolphins vs Rams: Use RPO

Next Gen Stats indicated this week that the Dolphins deploy the widest formations in the league (30.1 yards). These wide formations afford space to the receivers and the runners as they move in and out of their routes and cuts. This also spreads out the defense and makes disguising blitz packages somewhat more difficult for some teams.

This wide set up also allows for the offense to use run-pass option, and the switch to Tagovailoa might make that even more likely to happen.

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said on his ‘Move the Sticks’ podcast that an anonymous GM called Tagovailoa “the best RPO quarterback he’s ever seen … ball-handling, he’ll hit that slant a million times over.”

Dolphins offensive coordinator, Chan Gailey, was one of the first coaches in the NFL to integrate the run-pass option.

“Chan was a little bit ahead in the RPO game early on before it became I guess, ‘in-style’ for the league,” Dolphins GM Chris Grier said of Gailey back in February.

In his media availability this week, Gailey revealed the team regularly used pre-snap RPOs. He also said Tagovailoa was “good at reading and seeing” when using the option. This could be an element to play on Tagovailoa’s strengths and to mitigate LA’s pass rush.

Attack Jared Goff

The Dolphins have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, but Goff isn’t one of those. He works in the pocket with a strict timing in mind. Goff likes to hit his backfoot and make the throw. If the Dolphins can pressure him off his spot, he’s far less effective.

While Miami features the league’s widest offense, the Rams sport the NFL’s most closed. The closed-in formation could lead to quick option looks and receivers coming free after rub routes. Miami’s secondary will need to maintain discipline and communicate well.

Don’t be surprised if Byron Jones travels with Cooper Kupp, even to the slot. Xavien Howard could pair with Robert Woods on the outside.

Jones and Howard have been targeted a combined 22 times since Jones’s return in Week 5, but they’ve allowed just six receptions for 69 yards. For the season, Miami’s pass defense allows 62.2 percent completion percentage and their 86.3 QB-rating against is ninth best.

Goff enjoys operating out of the play-action, both straight and with a bootleg. His 93 play-action drop backs lead the league and he’s completed 68.8 percent of those attempts. Miami will need to limit the Rams’ effective running game in order to attack Goff.

Dolphins vs Rams: Protect Tua

Obviously.

Last week against the Bears, the Rams registered four sacks and eight quarterback hits. Their 24 sacks are third-most this season and they’ve piled up 86 pressures. Donald has tallied 45 of those pressures on his own. Michael Brockers has 15.

The Dolphins offensive line, meanwhile, has allowed just 10 sacks this season, ninth-fewest in the NFL.

The interior line will be particularly important, and they’ve played well thus far. Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras and rookie Solomon Kindley have surrendered just 21 pressures in 717 combined pass-blocking snaps. Of those 21 pressures, only seven have resulted in quarterback hits.

Tagovailoa can protect himself by not holding the ball for more than about 2.5 seconds. If he does, Donald and the Rams will find him. LA tends to get home with their four-man rush, blitzing only 28 percent of the time (14th-lowest rate).

Would the Marlins have made the playoffs in a full season? A statistical argument

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We watched the Miami Marlins overcome all of the odds and make the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. Along the way, we had two Gold Glove nominees (Brian Anderson and Miguel Rojas) and the *soon to be NL Manager of the Year (Don Mattingly). This run by the Marlins sparked a lot of questions. Can we do it again? Would this have been a reality in a 162 game season? Are we actually this good?

 

At this point, there is no point in meticulously analyzing how the Marlins did what they did; rather, I find it useful to use the information available to us in order to look ahead to what they can do next year. This team had a completely different look from the Marlins teams of previous years. This means that our sample size of stats is extremely small. That’s not good for predicting anything, let alone an entire team’s future. So instead of predicting the unpredictable based on internal Marlins stats, I will compare this Marlins team and their statistical rankings to teams of the past 5 years. In order to grasp how good the Marlins actually were, we can compare them to other teams who were similarly statistically through 60 games. Then, by extrapolating the most relevant data, we can show where the Marlins most likely would have ended up had the season gone 162. We will look at the main statistics that drive team success: wRC+, x-FIP, and team WAA.

 

wRC+ (True batting stat)

 

Weighted runs created plus is a major stat that influences team success. It is a statistic very similar to runs created, although it accounts for ballparks and era. A wRC+ of 100 is league average, whereas 150 is 50% above that average.

 

Through the Marlins 60 games, they had a wRC+ of 95. This was good enough for 18th in all of baseball (and 5th in the NL East). We will use this statistic to compare the offensive output of this Marlins team to other teams that draw parallels.

 

Teams that we will compare this Marlins team wRC+ to:

 

  1. 2019 Nationals

I know. This is quite a bold comparison. But you guessed it, through half of the 2019 season the World Series champs had a wRC+ of 95 (the same as the Marlins, but good enough for 16th place in all of baseball). 

 

It is important to note that the Nationals finished the regular season with a second-half wRC+ of 113 which was good enough for 4th in all of baseball. This turn around is unprecedented and one that may have been the rare outlier. The Nationals fell back to their statistical mean in 2020, however, finishing in the last place in the NL East. An interesting observation can be made here. The Marlins may have slipped from their statistical mean in these 60 games, allowing themselves to propel into the playoffs. It would not be a shocking revelation that they, like the Nats, could fall back into their true average. 

 

Result: 93-69, 2nd in NL East, World Series Champions

  1. 2018 Pirates

This one may make a little more sense. Through the first half of the 2018 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates had a wRC+ of 95 good enough for 14th in all of baseball. They followed a much more similar path to this Marlins team.

 

The reason that this team provides such a good comparison is because of who was on it. Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, and Francisco Cervelli all were Pirates in 2018. These 3 guys accounted for a bulk of our offense, especially the former two. I’ll take this moment to shoutout and congratulate Francisco Cervelli on an amazing career: Thank you! This Pirates team stayed consistent, posting a 96 wRC+ in the second half. Had we done this as well, especially with the tough NL East, we may have ended in a similar spot.

 

Result: 82-79, 4th in NL East, Missed Playoffs

 

  1. 2017 Diamondbacks

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks in 2017 had a wRC+ of 94 through the first half of the season. Their below average wRC+ is comparable to the Marlins, and unlike the 2019 Nats, this team did not propel forward afterward. They finished the season with a 96 wRC+, leaving them in 2nd place in the NL West, which was good enough for a Wild Card Birth. This shows that if the Marlins would have kept this pace going, they could have found themselves in a playoff spot after a 162 game season.

 

Result: 93-69, 2nd in NL West, Lost in NLDS (Hmmm… Sounds familiar)

 

Based off of wRC+, the Marlins were most likely good enough this year to at worst end .500 and whiff the playoffs due to the larger sample size of games that would have allowed teams like the Mets and Phillies (both top 10 in wRC+) to heat up and surpass them. Likewise, you could make the case they could have won the World Series as well, although the mean implies that their offensive output most likely would have led to a similar route to that of the 2018 Diamondbacks and lead to a loss in the NLDS. 

x-FIP (true pitching statistic)

 

So, basically, x-FIP can be applied almost the same way we do ERA. Inherently, it is the same statistic as ERA, but it factors out defensive errors and other aspects that pitchers cannot control. A 5.00 x-FIP is awful and a 2.70 x-FIP is fantastic. Apply the same structure of thought to x-FIP as to ERA. Say a pitcher has a 3.10 ERA and a 2.65 x-FIP. We can conclude he will probably lower his ERA eventually as he works back to his statistical mean.

 

This is where things start to look bad. The Marlins had a whoppingly high 4.90 x-FIP. This was bad enough for 26th in the entire league this season. In order to maintain consistency, we will compare the Marlins x-FIP to the same teams we did before, to see if they differed in any way.

 

  1. 2019 Washington Nationals

 

This is most likely the reason that the Marlins would not have experienced a similar run to that of the Washington Nationals. The Nats had an x-FIP of 4.29, good enough for 6th in the league their first half of play. Surprisingly, it rose during their stupendous 2nd half run to 4.38 and 11th in the league. It looks like their hitting turnaround carried them in the 2nd half. The Marlins don’t have that luxury. Also, to be completely frank, the difference between the Nationals and Marlins x-FIP is staggering. Because of this, we could probably eliminate a World Series run.

 

  1. 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates

 

The Pirates had an even better x-FIP than the Nats, putting up a 4.14 in the first half of the season in 2018 that was good enough for 16th in the league. They were 13th in the league to finish it off, showing that they were in fact the middle of the road team. This Pirates team was good, but just not good enough due to an extremely tough division in 2018. This sounds quite familiar and is the most accurate comparison to this Marlins team through 60 games when it comes to pitching ability.

 

  1. 2017 Arizona Diamondbacks

 

In the first half of their NLDS run, the Diamondbacks were 3rd in the league in x-FIP at 3.81. In the 2nd half, they were just as good, finishing 5th with an x-FIP of 3.94. The Marlins are nowhere near this reality, and because of that, their similarities on the offensive end are completely overshadowed. Because of the Marlins division being extremely strong, and through 60 we got lucky they played well below their statistical average, we can assume that this Marlins team’s pitching would have struggled later on, as they regressed to their statistical average.

 

Team WAA (WAR but team-based)

 

By looking at pitching and hitting statistics individually, it shows that our hitting was just good enough for a Wild Card/NLDS appearance and our pitching was good enough to get dead last in the division. Between those two statistics alone, it is clear through 162 that we would not have been a playoff team. Let’s take a look at one final cumulative stat (WAA – wins above average) in order to solidify these observations.

 

The Marlins were 20th in WAA at -1.5. This means that on average they., as a team, would have produced 1.5 less wins than the league average. Doesn’t look too optimal if you ask me.

 

Let’s make our final comparisons:

  1. 2019 Washington Nationals

 

The Nationals WAA was 14.8, good enough for 5th place. We would not have gone on their type of run in a 162 game season.

 

  1. 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates

 

The Pirates had a WAA of -.9. This was good enough for 18th place in the league, and we can draw similarities to this Marlins team just as the two previous stats have.

 

  1. 2017 Arizona Diamondbacks

 

The D-Backs topped all 4 of these teams with a WAA of 15.7 in 2017, good enough for 6th in the league. The Marlins would most likely not have been able to maintain a level of play anywhere near this.

 

In Conclusion

 

The Miami Marlins played above their statistical average in 2020. Yes, it was an amazing ride, but sadly it may not be sustainable. Their true means lie closest to the Pittsburgh Pirates of 2018, a team that went 82-79 and missed the playoffs in a tough division. Making rough estimates, we could have probably expected a 76-86 2020 season had it gone full. I know using these stats may seem irrelevant, but stats like x-FIP are most likely the reason the Miami Marlins will not resign Brandon Kintzler (he had a 2.22 ERA, but an x-FIP in the 5s meaning he is due for regression). Hopefully, this was informative as it provides a baseline for what the Marlins truly were this year. It shows us that there is room for growth. And that’s all we can ask for.

 

Could De’Aaron Fox Take His Talents To South Beach?

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Another player has emerged into some talks about possibly joining the Miami Heat in the near future, and his name is De’Aaron Fox.

The plan has continually been to go after Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021 free agency, but it’s never a bad idea to have a back-up plan.

It honestly seems to be the best possible fit you can think of.

Kentucky Wildcat, defensive oriented, emerging player, relationship with Bam Adebayo.

All of these things will play a part in this possibly happening, but how would this fit look exactly?

Around that time, Miami will officially be searching for that Goran Dragic replacement. Some hope that Tyler Herro can become the starting point guard of the Miami Heat eventually, which could still possibly happen, but doesn’t it seem ideal to have De’Aaron as the starting point guard instead?

The answer is yes. As mentioned previously he’s a guy that you can trust to guard opposing point guards, which is what Miami is looking for.

And that’s not the only thing that he brings, since he’s a player that you can trust to run your offense and get guys in the right spots. He has continued to become a better passer year after year, averaging seven assists a game this past season.

Miami wouldn’t mind to have a guy with that pacing run the offense, since I don’t think there’s anybody faster than him with the ball in their hands. That’s the type of guy that not only Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra would want to have, but especially Jimmy Butler.

The relationship with Bam Adebayo could potentially play a part as well, since De’Aaron has continued to be very supportive of Bam and the Miami Heat during their playoff run.

Obviously right now Miami is focused on what they have at hand for this upcoming season, but I’m 100% certain this De’Aaron Fox idea will continue to heat up as we get closer to that 2021 free agency.

It may be considered a back-up plan, but it should be considered the perfect fit.

Kentucky Wildcats All Over Miami Heat’s Draft Board Once Again

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It’s absolutely no surprise that Miami will be giving a Kentucky guy a look with the 20th pick. But this year, they have multiple Kentucky options.

For starters, there is optimism that Tyrese Maxey could potentially fall to Miami at 20, but ultimately there’s a good chance somebody grabs him earlier.

I’ve discussed why Tyrese Maxey makes sense for this Heat team, mostly due to the fact that he’s a talented two-way player.

Tyrese had a Pro Day on ESPN 2 on Thursday night, which Coach John Calipari spoke about him possibly getting overlooked like past Kentucky players. I think other teams recognize that, and if they do make yet another draft mistake, Pat Riley will be waiting to make that selection.

Greg Sylvander reported that the Miami Heat interviewed another Kentucky guard Immanuel Quickley.

His offensive package actually reminds me a lot of Tyler Herro’s game. Many have talked about his ability to play off the ball as a catch and shoot guy, like they said about Herro, but ultimately I believe he will emerge into more than that. He showed this past season that he’s pretty comfortable shooting shots off the dribble.

It would be an interesting back-court in Miami for the future. If they were to make this selection, it would definitely mean that they plan on making Tyler Herro the team’s point guard going forward, since ball-handling isn’t Quickley’s best attribute.

He also is another player who can be trusted on the defensive side of the ball. That hasn’t always been the case for Immanuel Quickley, but he really grew on that side of the ball this past season which showcases his work ethic.

He also has a close relationship with Tyler Herro, since they played together in college. He clearly fits the mold of a guy that Miami will consider in this draft.

Another name that I believe could get a look is Ashton Hagans. And what do you know, another Kentucky Wildcat.

His game definitely differs from Immanuel Quickley’s game, but they still both could fit this Heat team.

Hagans is a true point guard, who has good size and an outstanding ability to pass the ball. His shooting definitely isn’t his best attribute like Quickley, but he still has a pretty decent jumper that is evolving. He also has a great ability to get to the basket, and is most comfortable when he gets in transition.

His defense has also shown to be pretty dominant at Kentucky, but mostly off the ball when going for steals and things of that nature.

All three of these guys are 6’3 guards coming out of Kentucky the same year. Although those similarities are clear, they all have their own strengths that can all help this team right now.

If there was ever a year for Miami to draft a Kentucky Wildcat, it would be this year with all of these intriguing options.