Miami Marlins May Flop in Stacked NL East

The Philadelphia Phillies re-signed their two stars J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorious this past week. Not to be overdramatic, but this almost certainly feels like the nail in the coffin for the Miami Marlins in the upcoming 2021 season. They now find themselves in a division of 3 highly competitive teams: the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. Both the Phillies and Mets have historically underperformed in recent years, but with the Mets basically fielding an entire roster of new talent and the Phillies inching closer and closer to putting the puzzle pieces together, things are looking bleak in Miami.

Here’s my take on why the current NL East will prevent the Marlins from making the playoffs in back-to-back years:

Statistics

Ew. I know, I talk about the analytics a lot more than anyone would like to hear, but it is impossible to overlook them. All 4 other NL teams have either gotten better or remained the same. Last year, the Marlins overall (hitting, pitching, fielding, etc.) were statistically the worst in the division. An extremely small sample size allowed their underdog mentality to propel them forwards, but they will not have that luxury this year. With no key improvements to make any difference, we can expect a quick regression to their true mean: around 73-89.

Offense

The Marlins are simply outclassed by the rest of the division. We struggled to win 9 inning games last year because even in games where the pitching was lights out, our bats were flimsy at best. No changes made means similar issues in this season. In a division where you have to worry about Realmuto, Freeman, Acuna, Ozuna, Turner, etc., it is implausible to rely on young arms to carry you through a season. There will be close games that the Marlins pull out, but there will be a multitude of games where they are blown out.

Marlins Rebuild

Everything in Miami points to a rebuild. Kim Ng and Derek Jeter are taking last year with a grain of salt, and they are simply continuing on with the plan. The NL East has a “win now” mentality that the Marlins front office lacks. The lack of offseason moves points directly toward this. Sadly, after years of waiting for something as fruitful as the 2020 season was, Marlins fans may have to wait even longer for continued success.

Overall

At this point, all Marlins fans can do is sit back and trust in the process. After years of doing exactly that, there is expected agitation within the fanbase. Patience is key, though. The Fish may not have the talent ready now, but in a year or two we will begin to see a strong competitor emerge once again.

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