Miami Dolphins Week 15 Stock Report

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Welcome back to another installment of Stock Up & Stock Down. In Week 15 of the NFL season, our Miami Dolphins hosted the New England Patriots and Bill Belicheck. Pupil vs Master in round 4 and we were able to even up the overall win loss with the score ending 22-12. Not only was this the first time we had a 100+ rusher in almost 2 years but we were able to finish with a total of 250 yards rushing which is easily our highest total for the year. With so much to dissect let’s dive right in:

Stock Up

RB Group:

Salvon Ahmed and the entire RB group all had their best game individually and collectively to tune of 42 carries for 250 and 3 TDs. Already missing Flowers going into the game and loosing Kindley about halfway through really doesn’t make me believe that this was a coming out party for the OL but instead the holes that have already been there were finally starting to get hit. All afternoon we saw both Ahmed and Breida break off long runs by either following the blocking or finding the open lane and cutting back like the 31-yard run (a season long). If we can get even half of the production we got against the Patriots consistently, we will win a playoff game.

 

Baker:

Coming off an ELITE 3 sack performance, it was refreshing to see Baker still make such an impact despite both KVN and Elandon being back from injury. Jerome was all over the field from the start of the game to the very end having played all 55 defensive snaps per PFF. Playing the run, defending the pass, and again rushing the passer, totaling 8 tackles (7 solo), 1 sack, 1 TFL and 1 QB hit. Absolutely love to see him put back-to-back performances together and cannot wait for next week to see what he can do against a Raiders that is great at running the ball but are susceptible to giving up blitzes.

 

Chan Gailey:

Throughout the season I feel like I have seen glimpses of what the ideal Chan Gailey offense and this is what the game plan called for on a week we were missing 3 more WR to the other 87 WR we are missing for the year. All season people have bashed Gailey for being too safe and pedestrian but was that old man Gailey calling another failed trick play with LBJ? Or putting an ex QB in Malcolm Perry in motion to take the direct snap on 3rd and 1?

Or how about calling a hook and lateral for a 2-point conversion? Gailey and the entire coaching staff understood the importance of this game and left no page unturned on the playbooks this week. With the least amount of weapons Gailey & Tua have had to deal with all year, it is remarkable that we were able to scrape up 22 points without the assistance of our defense scoring or the usually reliable Jason Sanders.

 

 

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Trust the Flocess

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Stock Down

 

Jason Sanders:

Even sometimes the greatest players in franchise history have a bit of a rut or a bad game or two. Not something I will harp on too much as he has been the most reliable kicker this year in the entire NFL but last week’s miss vs the Chiefs feels like it would have meant something if made plus this week’s miss would have allowed us to keep momentum and put them away earlier in the game.

 

Antonio Callaway:

As much as my counterpart at 5RSN Kai https://twitter.com/samuraiiradio?s=21

Wants his Florida guy Antonio Callaway to get some play on the Offense, I find it difficult to expect anything else from him on this team. Seems that if there were ever a chance to play Antonio more would have been this week where we are already down DVP, Preston, and Jakeem. Not to add on but the emergence of LBJ as Tua’s security blanket on 3rd down also gives him less of chance to play once DVP comes back and if we ever get Preston back.

Edit: He was cut Monday.

Nick Needham:

Nick Needham had been getting his due credit in the past weeks but unfortunately this week he had probably his worst game of the year. PFF had him in coverage vs Jakobi Meyers giving up 2 catches for 61 yards, which on a day that had Cam only threw for 209 yards, really stands out.

 

Overall, we took care of business and were able to eliminate the New England Patriots from the playoffs. As I’m sure Coach Flores would say if asked about it now, it’s on to the Raiders and the challenge they present regardless if its Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota. Till next time, Fins Up!

 

Miami Heat: The Beard or The Bunch

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James Harden.

That’s a name that has been flying across the league after his eagerness to find a new home became public. And obviously, this was reported by ClutchAdamNBA from Five Reasons Sports a while back, which included the Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers, and the Miami Heat.

Now, the reason I haven’t discussed it much is because even though there was interest there, and active discussions going on, it just honestly felt like a waste of time to discuss at the current moment with the pieces that were going to need to be thrown in.

The issue I had with the trade had nothing to do with James Harden, clearly. And it had nothing to do with including Tyler Herro in a trade for a top 7 player in the NBA. Instead, the issue I had was trading away the entire house.

And clearly Miami feels the same way.

Does it seem like a viable option to trade away four shiny, young, and improving pieces away? It always makes sense to trade away assets for the star, but not four.

Having to include Precious Achiuwa, who just had the best day of training camp thus far.

Having to trade away KZ Okpala, who just scored 24 points in a preseason game while getting thrown into the fire.

Giving up Duncan Robinson, who just had one of the best individual seasons shooting the basketball in NBA history.

And of course Tyler Herro, who is an improving young prosepct in which Miami is already ready to hand the offensive keys to.

That’s a lot. A whole lot.

And once again, this doesn’t mean that they won’t ever come back to this James Harden situation, but just not for that asking price.

The beard or the bunch. Miami tested the waters for the beard, knowing that they always had the bunch to fall back on. And well, it’s a solid bunch.

Although it seems as if most people are more worried about trades than actual basketball, the Miami Heat have been “locked in,” as Jimmy Butler said today.

We will see how this plays out, but as I’ve discussed many times, it’s a win-win situation for Miami. And now they’re almost ready to kick off their season in 48 hours.

Dolphins win Patriots

5 Takeaways from Dolphins Win Over Patriots

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The Miami Dolphins (9-5) continued to prove doubters wrong with their comeback win over the New England Patriots (6-8) on Sunday. Miami’s 22-12 victory demonstrated the team’s resilience and drive, proving once again this franchise has the right coach and young quarterback.

With the win, the Dolphins kept pace in the AFC playoff race, holding their spot as the 7-seed. Gaining their ninth victory meant Miami secured its first winning season since 2016 and just their second since 2008.

Here’s a look at five takeaways from the Dolphins win over the Patriots.

Dolphins Run All Over Patriots in Win

One of the consistent struggles this season has been Miami’s inability to gain traction on the ground. The Dolphins have cycled through seven different running backs this season hoping to find the answer, but the team remained among the worst in the league in rushing yards-per-game and yards-per-carry.

But Sunday, the Dolphins found a ground game. Miami ran up a season-high 250 rushing yards against the Patriots and limited New England to 117 yards on the ground, 100 yards fewer than they allowed in their first matchup between these two.

This unexpected turn resulted in a total control of the ball game. The Dolphins rushed 42 times for a 6.0 yards-per-carry average. They punched in three rushing touchdowns and kept the ball away from New England. Miami topped the Pats in total plays (70 to 52) and time of possession (37:26 to 22:34).

Hogging the ball from New England forced the Patriots to rely on Cam Newton’s arm, which has not been a strength this season.

Ahmed Lays Claim to RB1 Spot

The Dolphins running back carrousel has spun for a few seasons now. This year, seven different backs have carried the ball.  In 2019, the team’s leading rusher was a 37-year-old quarterback, despite seven different RBs getting carries throughout the season.

And while the churn continues, there have been a couple of players who’ve flashed in their opportunities. The latest: Salvon Ahmed.

Ahmed became Miami’s first 100-yard rusher since Kalen Ballage put up 123 yards in Week 15 of the 2018 season. His 122 rushing yards are the most in franchise history by an undrafted player in his rookie season and the eighth-most by any Dolphins rookie.

Ahmed’s gained 288 yards on 63 carries this season, both numbers good for second-most on the team despite playing in only four games. His 4.6 yards-per-carry average tops Dolphins RBs with at least 15 carries. He averages 72 yards-per-game, which leads the team, and 17 of his 63 carries (26.9 percent) have gone for first downs.

Breida at His Best

The Dolphins finally saw a productive Matt Breida in the lineup on Sunday, too. Breida recorded a season-high 86 yards on 12 carries. His speed and shiftiness seemed like a solid addition for Miami this season, but inconsistent play and opportunity has limited the fourth-year pro.

Against the Patriots, Breida provided a lift Miami had yet to see from him this season. His 7.2 yards-per-carry led the team and may have earned him further opportunity, even if Myles Gaskin returns next week.

Breida sports great speed on the outside and good hands out of the backfield. Although he wasn’t involved in the passing game on Sunday, Breida’s caught 9-of-10 targets tossed his way this season for 96 yards.

Dolphins Defense Dominates in Win over Patriots

Miami extended its league-long takeaway streak to 20 games when Xavien Howard forced a fumble in the third quarter. The fumble stood as the Dolphins’ 26th takeaway this season, most in the league by day’s end. (Pittsburgh has 25 takeaways and is scheduled to play on Monday night.)

Howard’s third quarter play helped flip the momentum of this game and resulted his first forced fumble of the season. He’s now been involved in 10 takeaways for Miami this year (nine interceptions) and is well positioned for a Defensive Player of the Year push.

The Dolphins defense limited New England to just 12 points today, all field goals. It was the third time the Dolphins haven’t allowed a touchdown this season, making Miami just the second defense to accomplish the feat this season.

Miami allows 18.4 points-per-game, just two tenths of a point behind the Steelers for the league lead. The Dolphins rank first in third-down defense (32.5 percent) and are tied for tenth in sacks (37).

Dolphins Youth Movement in Full Effect

Thanks in part to injuries, Miami rolled out a starting lineup that included eight rookies, six on offensive. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, it was the first time a team started six rookies on offense since December of 2018 when Arizona did so. And although Patriots head coach Bill Belichick sported a 20-5 record against rookie quarterbacks, the Dolphins didn’t seem to mind.

The offense started well and drove the ball into the Red Zone before a critical mistake by Tua Tagovailoa resulted in an interception. From there, the offense remained dormant throughout the first half.

But after being held scoreless in the first half for the first time this season, the Dolphins came to life offensively. Tagovailoa led the team on a nine-play, 72-yard drive, capped off by a one-yard touchdown run by Ahmed. Much of the ball movement on that drive came on the ground, behind an offensive line sporting three rookies: Robert Hunt, Austin Jackson and Solomon Kindley.

In the fourth quarter, Miami took the lead for good on a 14-play, 90-yard drive that ended on a three-yard TD run by Tagovailoa. The Dolphins began the drive down 9-7 and added a thrilling two-point conversion to make the score 16-9. Tagovailoa completed 4-of-5 passes for 19 yards in addition to the go-ahead touchdown. It was the second game-winning drive and fourth-quarter comeback of his career.

Tagovailoa rushed for two touchdowns, becoming the fifth quarterback in Dolphins history to have two rushing touchdowns in the same game, the first since Cleo Lemon on October 14, 2007 at Cleveland.

Rookies led the way for Miami against Belichick’s vaunted defense, particularly Tagovailoa at quarterback and Ahmed in the backfield. Rookie receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. led the team with six catches. The future is bright for this franchise.

Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler: The Perfect Match

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When discussing Bam Adebayo, it’s never about will he take that next leap, but instead when will he take that next leap.

In the two preseason games to start the season, the improvements in his offensive package involving the mid-range jumper have been clear. But if you think he’s getting major opportunities now on offense, just wait til Jimmy Butler lines up next to him.

Something I’ve mentioned lately is that although many speak about the offensive gravity that Duncan Robinson holds when on the floor, Jimmy Butler does as well.

Sometimes he doesn’t look to score early in the game, but once he starts attacking, it just truly opens everything up for the entire team. And after losing in the NBA Finals this past year, I can guarantee Jimmy won’t be taking any regular season game lightly.

The reason Bam Adebayo will benefit majorly from Jimmy’s offensive aggressiveness and flow is because he will have many open shots from about 12 to 15 feet. And if he doesn’t shoot those open jumpers, he will be hearing it from Jimmy.

Whenever Jimmy would drive and kick to him last season, he usually took one dribble into a floater, which obviously is great to use as well, especially for a center. But making a defense worry about that 15 footer just opens that up even more.

Another thing to note is that Jimmy Butler will be directing traffic a lot this season with the ball in his hands, and he will look to work the ball into their offensive staple. The offense runs through Bam just through his ability to pass, set screens, and hand-off, but adding that element creates the leap that many have been waiting for.

There’s a reason that this organization gave Bam the nickname “no ceiling,” and that’s because even after he perfects his jumper this season, there are still tons of areas that still have room for improving.

Many always rave about Jimmy Butler’s perfect fit for the Miami Heat culture and organization, but what about the fit with Bam Adebayo?

I know Bam fits perfectly with anybody in the NBA, since he does everything on the court, but their games align just as much as their mentality and eagerness to win.

As much as people want to constantly discuss possible trade scenarios and things of that nature, just feel comfortable either way having two stars that are basically the same person.

Betting Better: How to Win in the NFL Game

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Though betting in the NFL may still pose some risk percentage, there are still useful ways to improve your winning chances when placing a wager. Most bettors just kind of know the tip of the iceberg when predicting some game’s outcome, but there are still some critical betting factors that only a few people take into account, and that’s what makes them expert bettors. 

 

If you’re still reading here, then you will know in a bit what some of these vital betting factors are. As long as you’re open and willing to learn, you will soon reap the rewards and will shortly become a better NFL bettor. To explain further, provided below are some powerful tips that help improve your winning chances in NFL betting. 

Look For The Edge

One of the best ways to gain a better chance of winning your NFL bet is to look for some clear edge in some matches by trying to identify which is the best NFL team to win in a particular game. There will always be those matches where the other team is dominating over the other, though there is still a risk of losing, the percentage is far lesser than most typical games. 

 

For example, the Philadelphia Eagles are not in the top ranks but still have an incredible offense. They won 5 games against teams in the top 15 defense. Although they won in the two games, they even failed to cover the spread of 6.5 when they played against these two teams, especially with the ones that have higher passing defenses that ranked 12th and 10th in the league. They had a rough time going through their opponents’ pass defenses. 

 

When they played against a team with a passing defense ranked 24th, they easily won by 38-21, covering a higher spread of 7.5. And when they played against Arizona, whose strongest passing defense only ranked 30th in the league, it was a no-brainer match for them, and got the easy W. 

 

Given that it was an easy win against the team ranked 24th, how much more against a team who’s passing defense ranked 30th? This is what pro bettors call an edge. Pro bettors identify these edges so easily because they do their homework way better than typical bettors do.

Set A Safe Budget

One of the most common cliches that every bettor has heard is to “only bet money that you can afford to lose.” Being too familiar with this idea, many bettors tend to sweep this truth under the rug. And for some, they continue to bet whenever they want without reservations. With that said, it is one of the best formulas to become broke in betting. 

 

Expert bettors consider the worst-case scenarios all the time, especially when things do not go their way. With that said, successful bettors, most of the time, prevent gambling temptations by limiting a budget only for betting. They make it a non-negotiable! That’s why they are successful in a general perspective.   

Numbers Don’t Lie

Another essential attitude when engaging in NFL betting is to check the numbers because they never lie. Numbers like facts, statistics, ranks in the offense, ranks in defense, etc., reveal almost every strength and weakness of all the currently active teams. And not everyone takes the time to study and analyze these critical factors.  

Many bettors, mostly amateurs, make poor bet judgments because they tend to rely on uneducated guesses or emotions rather than do their research and acknowledge what the current numbers tell. This is where most bettors lose their money and fail. Acknowledging the numbers and facts in NFL betting are critical components to become a successful bettor.

Continue Expanding Your Game Knowledge

Expanding your game knowledge is one of the critical components to increase your winning chances in NFL betting. Successful NFL bettors do not stop learning things about the sport. Even though they have become so familiar with the game’s critical aspects, they do not take this as an excuse to stop studying and learning more about the sport. 

 

For instance, a particular NFL team is ranked 20th in passing defense in the past season. But because they have adjusted their roster by acquiring some key players and a promising rookie in the current season, their defensive qualities and numbers can go up. And who knows, they might just make their way to the top 5 rankings in best passing defense. 

Discipline is Everything

In the game of NFL betting, discipline is everything. If you do not discipline yourself to look for the edge in specific matches, you won’t profit. If you don’t discipline in setting a safe budget, you might end up using important money. 

 

If you don’t discipline yourself by considering what the numbers tell, you will have wrong predictions most of the time. And if you don’t discipline yourself to expand your sports knowledge, your winning chances will decline sooner or later. Although discipline sounds cliche, it undeniably influences the success of a pro bettor. 

Takeaway

The ideas above are beneficial, mainly if your goal is to become a successful bettor. Remember that to absorb these ideas successfully, you must make sure to execute them every time you decide to bet to improve your winning chances in NFL betting significantly.

 

Miami earns berth to Cheez-It Bowl but will be without top DEs

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On Sunday afternoon, the 18th-ranked Miami Hurricanes announced that they are slated to face 21st-ranked Oklahoma State in the Cheez-It Bowl on December 29th. The game will take place at Camping World Stadium in Orlando at 5:30 PM and will be televised by ESPN.

 

 

The Canes, however, will be without two of their biggest weapons on defense for this game: defensive ends Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, who are both opting to forego the rest of their eligibility to enter the NFL Draft. 

It had been reported by the Miami Herald on Saturday that Phillips had signed with agents Ben Renzin and Brian Ayrault. He had essentially confirmed the news by posting a video on Twitter, thanking the program and fans for welcoming him with open arms. 

 

 

On Mel Kiper’s most recent Big Board, Phillips is ranked as the top defensive end prospect, as he leapfrogged former Miami end Gregory Rousseau (Rousseau decided to opt out of the 20202 season entirely.)

 

Phillips transferred to Miami in 2019 from UCLA, where he was a former #1 recruit but struggled with injuries to a point where he medically retired after two seasons. 

 

Phillips finishes the season with 45 tackles, 15.5 tackles-for-loss, 8 sacks, and 1 interception. That sack total has him tied for 2nd in the ACC.

 

As for Roche, he tweeted out his announcement later that afternoon. As of Sunday, he is ranked as the 4th-best prospect at outside linebacker on Mel Kiper’s Big Board. Roche was a grad transfer from Temple, where he was already considered one of the best defensive ends in the nation before arriving in Coral Gables.

Roche finishes his lone season at Miami with 45 tackles, 14.5 tackles-for-loss, and 4.5 sacks. 

 

Coach Manny Diaz mentioned in a press conference that they will most likely find about any other opt-outs within the next 24 hours, as the team will commence bowl practice on Monday.

 

TE Brevin Jordan, who is also a top prospect for the upcoming NFL Draft should he opt out, is expected to play as is QB D’Eriq King. 

 

Keep it locked with @PaulAustria_ and @SixthRingCanes on Twitter for the latest in Miami Hurricanes news and recruiting. Check out this last Wednesday’s episode of The Sixth Ring, where we discussed our thoughts on this class. Stay tuned for another episode soon, while we have special guest and South Florida recruiting guru Larry Blustein on to give us his thoughts.

 

Also, sign up for an account on Prizepicks.com, where you can pick the over/under on fantasy projections on some of your favorite players. There’s no better time to sign up than now as the NFL season starts to wind down while the NBA season is right around the corner. Enter the promo code “five” to double your initial deposit.

 

Max Strus: “Not Just a Shooter”

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After the shooting display that Max Strus put on for everybody last night in Miami’s win over the Raptors, it’s hard to look past that.

He scored 22 points in 22 minutes, while going 6-8 from beyond the arc. There’s no doubt about it that the guy can shoot the basketball, and thrives mostly in the catch and shoot areas, much like teammate Duncan Robinson.

When Miami brought him on a couple of weeks ago, I mentioned he would be utilized in a similar way after evaluating his past. He works very well when moving off of screens like Duncan does, which made this pick-up very interesting.

Erik Spoelstra talked about his performance after the game, mentioning that he’s had like three days of training camp where he just didn’t miss.

One thing that should always be noted is that Coach Spo and this organization don’t publicly rave about specific players unless they truly believe in them. And well, it’s clear that they believe in Max Strus.

There’s obviously room to dive into his shooting throughout this game, but ultimately every three point make included the same two things.

A quick release and all net.

To that point, it’s clear that the guy can straight up shoot it, but what else is there?

Well, as Erik Spoelstra said following last night’s win, “He’s not just a shooter.”

Although we didn’t get to see a lot other than his shooting, his size is something that he truly uses to his advanatge. He has good size for his position, which is why he finds himself able to back down smaller defenders at times.

And if it ends up sending him to the charity stripe, he’ll most likely knock them down, after shooting 96% from the free throw line in the G-League.

It feels as if these hidden gems just never stop appearing in Miami, and as I’ve mentioned many times, reflects on the Miami Heat’s scouting department. One thing I know about their way of scouting is that they don’t fly at players that are one-dimensional, they fly at players who are unique.

So even if you look at Max Strus as the typical shooter, be prepared to be proven wrong.

Dolphins Patriots

5 Keys to Dolphins-Patriots in Week 15

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The Miami Dolphins (8-5) enter Week 15 with a pivotal matchup with the New England Patriots (6-7). The Dolphins currently hold the final playoff spot in the AFC and may need to win their final three games this season to get into the postseason.

The game stands a rematch of the Week 1 contest between these division rivals. The Patriots defeated the Dolphins 21-11 in the season opener and that stands as Miami’s worst loss of the season. But in Week 15, the Dolphins are a different team.

Here’s a look at five keys to the Dolphins-Patriots matchup in Week 15.

Dolphins-Patriots: Keep Up the Solid Run Defense

The Dolphins sport one of the top defensive units in the NFL, but if there’s a clear weakness with that group, it’s the run defense. Miami allows 120.2 rushing yards-per-game (22nd) and 4.6 yards-per-carry (25th). In Week 14 against the Chiefs, though, the run D played well.

Kansas City managed just 94 yards on 24 rushes, good for 3.9 yards-per-carry. The Dolphins limited explosive rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire to 32 yards on 16 carries (2.0 yards-per-carry) and 12 of those came on one run.

Miami will need a similar performance in Week 15 against the Patriots, a team that ran all over them in the season opener. In Week 1, New England carried the ball 42 times for 217 yards and three touchdowns, good for a 5.2 yards-per-carry average. Those numbers are similar to the 189 yards and 5.7 YPC average put up by the Broncos in Week 11.

But the Dolphins run defense has improved since those losses. They haven’t allowed a team to rush over 100 yards or get over 4.0 yards-per-carry over the last three weeks.

Put Up Points Early

The strength of the Patriots offense is the ground game. New England leads the league in rushing attempts, and they use that attack to control the pace of play. In Week 1, New England hogged the ball, and the Dolphins only had four second half possessions. But the Patriots have a limited passing attack, coming in at 29th in passing (185.4 yards-per-game) and have thrown a total of eight touchdown passes in 2020.

If the Dolphins can get an early lead, it may force New England to abandon their strength to get back into the game. Cam Newton, who was benched in Week 14 after a horrible showing against the Rams, has thrown just five touchdowns this season. He’s thrown twice as many interceptions.

The Dolphins lead the league in first quarter scoring (7.5 points-per-game) and are seventh in first half scoring (15.5). The Patriots, meanwhile, are last in scoring in the first quarter (2.2) and 27th in first half scoring (9.2). And early lead could lead to Miami’s defense turning up the heat on Cam.

Dolphins-Patriots: Limit Newton’s Legs

As stated earlier, the Patriots lead the league in rushing attempts. Damien Harris paces the team with 137 attempts, good for 691 yards and two touchdowns. But second on the team in carries is Newton. His 113 attempts are third-most among quarterbacks.

In Week 1, the Dolphins allowed Newton 75 yards on 15 carries. He scored two rushing touchdowns. On the season, Newton’s piled up 451 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Miami has historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Newton and Arizona’s Kyler Murray. If the Dolphins are to win this game and keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need to keep Newton in the pocket.

Miami’s defense must find a way to limit positive gains on first down, forcing the Patriots into second- and third-and-long situations. Miami sports the top third-down defense in the league, allowing opponents to convert just 33.1 percent of the time on third-down. The long down-and-distance will allow the Dolphins to attack Newton. The Patriots surrender 2.2 sacks-per-game (Miami gets 2.6 per). And in Week 14, New England allowed four sacks in their loss to. The Rams.

Snag More Takeaways

This one goes without saying, but we’ll say it here anyway. The Dolphins are tied with Pittsburgh for the most takeaways this season (25). Miami’s streak of at least one takeaway in 19 consecutive games is the longest in the NFL.

And the Dolphins defense was particularly impressive last week, despite the loss to Kansas City. They intercepted Patrick Mahomes three times and forced a fumble. Mahomes had entered the Week 14 contest with just two interceptions all season.

Newton’s 10 interceptions this season are eighth-most in the league. The Patriots 14 total interceptions thrown are fourth-most. New England has lost four fumbles this season, so their 18 total turnovers are middle-of-the-pack. But in their seven losses this season, the Patriots are minus-six in turnover differential.

Xavien Howard will look to extend his personal interception streak to sixth game and push his league lead in the INT department. The Patriots throw 1.1 interceptions-per-game (fourth-most), so he’ll have his opportunities. If Howard snags his 10th INT, it will match the single-season franchise record.

The Dolphins defense has feasted on turnovers this year. They’ve returned a pair of fumbles for touchdowns and consistently set up their offense with a short field. Doing that would certainly help their rookie quarterback.

Dolphins-Patriots: Get Tagovailoa Settled In

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has a long history of dominating rookie quarterbacks. And Week 15’s matchup marks the first time Tua Tagovailoa will face a Belichick defense. Belichick sports a 5-20 record against rookie QBs and most recently put the clamps on Chargers rookie Justin Herbert.

Working in Miami’s favor is the fact that it’s a home game. All five of Belichick’s losses to rookie QBs have come on the road.

Tagovailoa has settled into the offense well over the last several weeks. He’s demonstrated positive chemistry with Mike Gesicki, who could play despite a shoulder injury, DeVante Parker and Lynn Bowden Jr. Tagovailoa spreads the ball around in the passing game and has taken well to the up-tempo, no-huddle attack.

Tagovailoa may need to focus on the short passing game to simulate what would come on the ground. But he’s been good in that range thus far, connecting on 76-of-95 passes for 617 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions on throws under 10 yards through the air.

New England tends to flood the field with defensive backs and doesn’t blitz at an alarming rate (just 24 percent of the time, ninth-lowest). Tagovailoa will need to be patient and take with the Patriots give him.

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Dolphins Loss Chiefs

Week 15 Dolphins/Patriots Odds and Prediction

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The Miami Dolphins face the New England Patriots in Week 15 at 8-5 and in control of their playoff destiny.

 

Miami Dolphins (8-5) vs New England Patriots (6-7)

Sunday Dec. 20th, 1PM EST

Line: Dolphins -2.5

O/U 41.5

 

For the changing of the guard in the AFC East to be complete the Patriots must be eliminated from playoff contention outright, even though Buffalo has nearly clinched the division.

The Dolphins are just a slight favorite despite a better record and being at home. Both teams are in vastly positions after New England beat Miami convincingly 21-11 in Week 1. Cam Newton has struggled and the Dolphins’ defense has become one of the best in the league.

 

Newton has just five touchdown passes against 10 interceptions but his 11 rushing scores are tied for the second highest total in the NFL. In Week 1 Newton was very efficient through the air completing 15-of-19 passes for 165 yards. However it was on the ground where Newton did his most damage with 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns.

Miami is playing much better on both sides of the ball and since Tua Tagovailoa took over at quarterback they are limiting mistakes with the football. Ryan Fitzpatrick started under center in Week 1 and threw three interceptions without a touchdown. Conversely Tua has so far thrown just one pick in seven starts.
New England is the 5th best rushing team in the NFL entering Week 15 averaging 147.5 yards per game, while Miami’s defense ranks 21st in the league allowing 120.2 yards per game. Where Miami excels is in pass coverage and their 16 interceptions are second in the NFL. Xavien Howard leads the NFL with nine picks and has firmly entered the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. Newton will be without wide receiver Julian Edelman which gives him even fewer weapons.

 

Miami will need to be careful as New England still has a solid defense led by Stephon Gilmore, they are right behind the Dolphins with 15 interceptions. Tua will need to take what the defense gives him, and if Mike Gesicki and Devante Parker can go that will give the offense a huge boost.

The Dolphins need to find a running game to help Tua against a tough New England defense, and Bill Belichick will try to take away anything easy. New England’s run defense is worse than Miami’s, ranking 23rd allowing 124 yards-per-game. If Miami can run the ball in this one it bodes well for success to close out the season.

I predict Miami will finally get the ground game going and control a fairly low scoring game. The Dolphins’ defense can force Newton into mistakes and I see that trend continuing in this matchup. Field position will be critical and the Dolphins have perhaps the best kicker and special teams in the NFL.

That could make the difference in a close game.

 

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20

 

Related:

Houtz Special: Five Things to dish about before Sunday’s matchup vs New England

The Silent Emergence of Precious Achiuwa

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Precious Achiuwa wasn’t the primary discussion following yesterday’s final preseason game against the Raptors, since KZ Okpala got to prove himself and Max Strus came out firing.

Although those were outstanding performances, Precious’ performance should not be overlooked.

13 points and 15 rebounds in only 22 minutes is incredible on its own, but when you throw in the fact that it was his second NBA game after not playing in the Summer League elevates it even more.

As Bam Adebayo said following yesterday’s game, “Just imagine if he played 30 minutes, he’d have a 20/20 game.”

Precious talked about taking pride on the glass, and that’s clear when you watch him play. He’s just constantly running up and down the floor, which is why the first word people use to describe Precious is energy.

I mentioned he’d need to polish up some things involving the pick and roll, setting better screens instead of slipping every time, and he did exactly that.

And his burst of energy off the roll seems to align with Goran Dragic’s type of play, since he got a couple easy buckets off of Goran lobs.

As much as I can dive into his actual play yesterday, this is the one time the stats speak loud enough. The minutes that many rookies have been playing around the league in this preseason are much more than Precious has gotten, and not many can come close to that type of stat line. Most of them are just looking to get 13 points, since that’s an accomplishment of its own.

As mentioned before, rookies have been the big question mark this season with the unique route they’ve had to take. Most guys are just getting thrown into the fire to see how they react, and well, Precious has reacted pretty well.

The number one thing you want to see a young player do is learn quickly. And he improved in every area that I discussed from the first game on Monday to the second game on Friday. And that’s impressive.

Coach Spo has some young weapons that he can utilize in different ways, and with Precious continually mentioning his relationship with Bam Adebayo, and trying to reiterate the things he does on the basketball court, tells me he may get some energy minutes early in the season when Bam goes to the bench.