The Undeniable Rise of Caleb Martin

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For many, just one opportunity is all they need to show the world what they can do. For Caleb Martin, it was about opportunity and the right team at the right time.

 

Caleb Martin was a late addition to the Miami Heat roster. Hell, he’s still not technically even on the official roster as it stands. But that last-second acquisition via a Two-Way Contract was more important than anyone on the Heat staff could have predicted. No one paid much mind to it and many on social media wondered why the team didn’t use a veteran minimum deal on a player like Wesley Matthews. While the move may have been partly to avoid the repeater tax, it made sense.

There’s a lot of CBA lingo I could get into, but the gist of it is Miami wants to maintain future flexibility by avoiding going into the repeater tax right now. It was frustrating at the time for many fans. I thought it was a decent buy-low move but can understand why some wouldn’t see it as such. Charlotte isn’t a huge market and the few that did know about Caleb would have preferred his brother.

The Heat have already learned their lesson of using end-of-rotation spots on journeymen past their prime. So long are the days of Eddie House, Amare Stoudamire, and Eddy Curry. The team now mostly uses those spots to develop younger unheralded guys who have yet to unlock their full potential. Players like Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, and Max Strus. They want to take the clay that other teams discard and start molding them into a vase good enough for a museum.

Caleb was weighing various non-guaranteed Two-Way offers before getting the call that the Heat wanted him in for a workout. He would leave quite an impression on the Miami brass that included Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra. The workout was enough for the team to offer him a Two-Way, the same as every other team that wanted his services. The difference was that Martin knew the Heat’s reputation of taking in undrafted players like him and putting them in the best position to succeed. The organization let its reputation speak for itself and landed a project wing.

What the Heat didn’t envision was Martin contributing as much as he has so fast. I imagine they expected to have him play spot minutes waiting on Victor Oladipo’s eventual addition to the team. It seemed to look that way as he garnered only 8 (garbage time) minutes total through the first 5 games. But as is the nature of the league, injuries occurred and Caleb was called upon more and more.

 

 

You’d think with more responsibility and a heavier workload that a Two-Way player would show why he was passed on by so many teams. It’s turned out to be quite the opposite for the versatile wing from Nevada. Martin has showcased every improved tool in his bag and more during this opportunity. His athletic downhill activity and versatility were facets the Heat had only had in Oladipo’s 4 games last season.

Martin has given them what Derrick Jones Jr used to but with an actual handle and ability to shoot. That shot-in-the-arm athleticism that only Bam Adebayo would give them. The Heat added a player that replicated the description of so many of the players on the Suns team that went to the Finals last year.

These skills didn’t appear overnight either. Caleb’s shooting has obviously improved steadily since he’s arrived. The handle and ability to break down a defender one on one while avoiding too many turnovers. He’s also learned to reign in his hyperactivity at the right times. Early in the season, you would see him cutting and standing where a teammate was occupying space. Caleb’s motor would stay on maximum overdrive at times but he’s learned little by little to let the game slow down.

That motor is still being used to its full potential on the defensive end. Watching him fly around on that end has been a joy to watch. Martin has been causing chaos and headaches for opposing guards night in and night out. He doesn’t care who Coach Spoelstra asks him to defend, he’s going to wreak havoc like Marlon Wayans in any scene he’s ever been in. That part of his game is more of a testament to the development he’s done before even getting to Miami. Caleb himself spoke about how he was always the scorer dating back to High School. He’s been adapting to what’s asked of him for quite a while already.

 

And he’s still learning on the fly as he’s been thrown into the fire. I don’t think he expected to start 9 games while averaging 30 minutes a game. But there’s no denying he’s taken the challenge head-on and full throttle. In his starts this season he’s putting up 14/5 on 54/42/73 shooting splits. A run of starts that included putting up 28 points on 9/12 shooting. It’s not only a challenge but an opportunity. Caleb knows this is where he could make an impression on not only the Heat but the whole NBA. Showing to everyone that he belongs and that he deserves a legitimate long-term NBA contract. He’s made it hard to ignore and it’s inevitable that the Heat will convert his deal when the tax date is up.

Martin knew Miami was the best spot for him to showcase and establish his place in the league. Miami was looking for a player like Caleb and he fell right into their lap. Maybe it wouldn’t have been as easy had Miami not made a name for itself as a development hub for undrafted and unheralded players. Caleb could have chosen to go elsewhere; it’s not like the Heat offered him a bigger deal than those other teams.

Martin and Miami caught each other at the perfect time and now they’re both reaping the benefits. He’s made it a no-brainer that he’ll get minutes once all the big 4 starters are healthy at once. Someone will have to take those minutes from him and I think Erik Spoelstra knows that. He prefers a versatile player like Caleb as opposed to a specialist. Players that fit his description are more valuable in playoff settings, especially ones that could involve the Nets or the Bulls.

It takes a lot to win a title and that includes hitting on value contracts as you pay your max-level stars. Martin was expected to be an infield single, but he’s been an inside-the-park home run. A regular home run isn’t chaotic and hard enough for a guy like Caleb.

 

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Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

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Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Slim Margin for Error for Trail Blazers

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The Portland Trail Blazers are running out of time to turn their season around.  After 42% of the year, they’ve underachieved and sit at eight games below .500. Some of their record can be blamed on the injury report but most of it should be attributed to the poor product the Blazers have put on the court. 

 

Damian Lillard was diagnosed with an abdominal tendinopathy on Dec. 1, causing him to miss the next five games. In that span, Portland went 1-4.  Their only victory came against Detroit, one of two teams with single digit wins.  Yet, Lillard returned 11 days later in the loss at home against the Timberwolves, and it might have been too soon.  

 

Since his return, (8 games) Lillard appears to need more assistance getting open with the help of a screen. Most instances where he zips past a defender have come when he’s running down hill in transition with fewer moments of #0 beating his man in single coverage in the halfcourt.  Whenever Lillard initiates the offense in the halfcourt, Portland’s go-to option as of late is to have a teammate screen for him on either wing so he can pull up for a triple.  It’s becoming as predictable as Julius Randle of the Knicks cutting left. 

 

Another play Portland runs significantly is attack through the pick ‘n’ roll ball handler.  It’s used for 1/5 of their offense but the team isn’t scoring efficiently this way.  Portland is only converting 41.5% of their shots in this category while taking the eighth most attempts in the league.  This could potentially improve with the return of CJ McCollum.   He’s another dependable option to score as the pnr ball handler because of his swift ability to breakaway or stop on a dime.

 

This season under first-year coach Chauncey Billups, Portland has cut down on its isolation frequency.  In 2021, the Blazers led the NBA in iso usage (10.2%) and now only eight other teams run more one-on-one action.  Portland may have the ball stick less now (7.6), but their effectiveness attacking this way has decreased. While McCollum is out, most of the iso plays are going to Lillard, who has his teammates clear out for a possible lane or for space to take a jumper.  On more occasions, Dame Time is settling for a deep tray instead of blowing past his man.     

 

Defensively, the outfit is the worst team guarding in the NBA.  The Blazers are tied with New Orleans for last in the league in opponent 3-point percentage while also giving up over 48 points a night in their interior.  Much of this is due to poor communication, like not alerting a teammate of an incoming screen, a Blazer failing to inform another he’s switching, or not receiving help when stuck in a mismatch. 

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As an illustration, on Dec. 21 at New Orleans,Portland put the Pelicans in the bonus less than five minutes into the game.  Some of the penalties came defending a couple fastbreak layups by NOLA’s Josh Hart and Braondon Ingram and another was Jusuf Nurkić losing control on a loose ball.

 

Then on Dec. 31, Avery Bradley of the Lakers set a screen on Nassir Little on the right wing  anticipating LeBron James’ dive in transition.  James wrapped around the screen and Lillard was left on an island with him on the baseline.  In the moment of truth, Norman Powell did not help from the opposite baseline and instead stayed on Russell Westbrook in the corner. James then powered past Lillard to the basket for two plus the foul.

 

Four minutes into the same game, James stripped Powell’s right baseline cut and got out in transition after Westbrook flung the loose ball back to start the break.  Here Tony Snell of the Blazers can be seen jogging from the left corner until he reaches his team’s 3-point line.  

 

On Jan. 3, without Lillard (load management) at home, Portland outlasted the Atlanta Hawks, but not without the opposing squad dropping 131 points.  It was the fourth time this season their matchup scored at least 120 points at the Moda Center, but the only instance in which the Blazers won.  

 

Portland’s room for error is shrinking, but they are not out of the playoff hunt yet. Lillard and McCollum as recently as the bubble games showed that they could lead their team to wins at the end in the regular season to secure a final spot.  During that eight game stretch the Blazers finished 6-2.  This time around, performing late season heroics might be very challenging.  Every team is at risk of losing a key because of COVID-19 outbreak.  Missing the right players could derail a season.

 

 

Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The Miami Heat’s Hot Winter

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The Miami Heat have turned misfortune into opportunity over their last 14 games.  Since Dec. 1,  the team has been without at least two starters and in some cases three.  With key players catching the injury bug and COVID-19, the Heatles have managed to scrape away an 9-5 record.  

 

It’s tough for any outfit to play well through a long stretch when they are down two All-Stars.  Bam Adebayo tore the ligament in his right thumb at home on Nov. 29 against the Nuggets.  He was given a 4-6 week timetable.  Jimmy Butler hurt his tailbone in a fall at Chicago on Nov. 27 and then reaggravated the same injury five games later against Memphis.  Butler recently returned on Dec. 26 in the win at home over Orlando.  

 

Over the past 14 games, the Heat have deployed one of the deepest rosters in the league.  Before Adebayo and Butler went out, the Heat were first in the NBA in protecting the paint in six games through October and third after 15 outings in November.  In December, Miami is back at first in that category giving up only 38.8 points per game in the box.  During this stretch, Miami has relied heavily on the 2-3 zone which dissuades opponents from attacking the basket, but encourages them to shoot from deep or force the action in the middle.  

 

The team’s liking to the 2-3 coverage is probably a reason they are 20th in the NBA at protecting the 3-point line in December.  It’s a lot of ground to cover for two defenders up top and constant ball and player movement can eventually lead to a breakdown on the perimeter.    

 

Yet, Miami has done a decent job this month guarding its opponent.  In December, Miami is ninth in the league in DFG% (44.3) while holding the 10th best defensive rating.

 

If not for the key players out of the lineup, it’s unclear how much time Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Omer Yurtseven would have gotten.  But they’ve seized the day as professor John Keating would say.  

 

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Vincent has started the last nine matches and had back-to-back career highs at Philadelphia (26 pts) then in Orlando (27pts). Yurtseven turned into the Heat’s rebounding magnet before backup center Dewayne Dedmon sprained his left MCL, and is absorbing 13 boards per contest over his last six games.  Martin in seven matches the entire month is casually dropping 13.6 points a night on over 59% shooting.  And it took health protocols within an hour before tip-off vs. Washington to hold back Strus who was averaging more than 22 points a game the last five outings.

 

All of this presents a wrinkle for Coach Erik Spoelstra as soon (if) his squad is fully healthy.  Normally, teams win in the postseason with their best eight guys.  When Adebayo, Lowry and Tucker return to the lineup, the minutes of Miami’s fantastic four reserves will presumably get slashed.  But having too many serviceable players is usually an issue only the contenders have.  Some will be unhappy or frustrated, but it doesn’t mean it is the last time they will play.

 

Some guys will eventually get into foul trouble and get yanked to the bench. Spo might determine a matchup is favorable over someone else.  Or, the odds are high that another Heatle will go through health protocols at some point again.  Miami is lucky it has four of these dudes that can stay ready.

What the Heat have shown is not a mirage.  They have better than a .500 record on the road (10-9) while taking care of home court (12-4).  That is a solid indicator of an exceptional team.

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Kyrie Irving Won

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Kyrie Irving won.  It probably won’t be long either before the Nets change course on their decision not to bring him back.  

 

Inexplicably, the Brooklyn Nets swallowed their words in the middle of a league-wide covid outbreak. And they shouldn’t have.  It was only on Oct. 29 when team owner Joe Tsai said it wasn’t tenable for his star guard to compete on his own time. Eight weeks later, Irving’s lack of social awareness is the reason people miss his game and why the Nets have had to trod on through 30 without him.  

 

Given this impulsive change of direction, Irving is only available for 23 of Brooklyn’s 27 remaining away games while he stays unvaccinated.  Hopefully the Nets don’t confuse him with a groupie because they’ll only see him on the road.  But as of now, they are first in the east, and away from Barclays, the team has the best road record in the NBA at 11-3.  

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New York’s laws aren’t changing.  While Irving remains obtuse, his part-time gig of Cirque du Soleil basketball still leaves the Nets at a disadvantage come playoff time.  They’ll be without him in their building while he sits at home, twiddling his thumbs watching the game like the rest of us.  

 

Sure, Irving finally coming back will help them win more of the games they were supposed to.  But it doesn’t mean anything if he can’t be there in the trenches with his group when they need him the most.

 

And they do need Irving back badly, despite being “#1.”  James Harden has lost two steps because of age and weight.  Kevin Durant, as brilliant as his arsenal is, will get burnt out if he keeps averaging 37 minutes a night.  

 

In the previous postseason, Harden was limited in round 2 against the bucks because of a grade 2 hamstring strain.  In Game 4 of the same series, Irving sprained his ankle and couldn’t continue after Giannis Antetokounmpo undercut him.  Durant was left on an island with the team’s role players and nearly got them there if not for his size 30 sneakers.  

 

This star threesome could become the greatest trio that never was.  Irving, Durant’s and Harden have played only 13 games, a third of the way past year two together.  Sources tell me Vegas will start taking wagers soon on the over/under for the three linchpins playing 82 games collectively over the next 18 months. To their “credit,” the Nets record in their minuscule sample size was 10-3.  

 

Once Irving gets back on the floor, one can only hope that his fix of competing will overpower his reluctance to follow the advice of medical professionals.   

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Zion, Pelicans’ Season Over Before it Started

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The New Orleans Pelicans can’t catch a break.  The latest setback to their cornerstone player Zion Williamson probably ends any hope the team had of even making the play-in tournament.  Given the cascade of complications the squad has endured, once again, the future must remain a priority.  

 

The slow progress of Williamson’s rehabilitation of his right foot is disconcerting.  He may be 6’6 on a good day, but his immoderate circumference should place him in big-man territory when it comes to injuries to his extremities.

 

He’s “listed” at 284 lbs, but he’s never played at that weight.  It’s alarming because of the unnecessary stress it is likely placing on his bones, ligaments and joints, but at the same time, the feat is impressive.  Few things in sports can captivate an audience quite like a 300+ pound man gracefully floating through the air before unleashing a raging assault on the rim. Yet, lower-body injuries to big men historically have proven to be career-altering.

 

Bill Walton was a hoops savant, but injuries to his feet prevented the Deadhead from reaching his zenith.  Bill Cartwright was another All-Star center with issues in the same area.  So was Sam Bowie, picked ahead of Michael Jordan.  Each of those guys in their playing days weighed significantly less than what Williamson does now, yet they were 7-footers or just about.  

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At media day on Sept. 27, vice president of basketball ops David Griffin said he expected Williamson to be cleared for action by opening night.  The Pelicans’ season is now 34% complete, and there is no sign of an imminent return now that the team is scaling back his workload. The Pelicans are last in the west, and their record sits at 8-21, four games outside of the play-in-tournament.  

 

The odds of the Pelicans reaching the 10th seed are slim, but they should perhaps look to get there without the help of Williamson this season.  To protect their investment in taking #1, #1, maybe it would be in NOLA’s best interest to not have their star player suit up until he is at least at his weight from draft night.  

 

This is not the first lower body injury Williamson has had as a pro.  He bruised his left knee in his Summer League debut in 2019. Then a few months later, Williamson tore his meniscus in a preseason game that required surgery and kept him out until January.  He also hurt his hamstring in the bubble, but the team never revealed that. 

 

The ultraconservative approach worked in the near recent pass for Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers.  The 76ers did not play Embiid in his first two years in the NBA as he rehabbed his right foot.  In his rookie campaign (2017), Philly’s center suited up 31 times, and he was still offered a 5-year $145 million rookie extension.  

 

Through two seasons, Williamson has played in 85 games and missed 88.  If he doesn’t play a minute of this season, he would still have played more than double what Embiid did his first three years.  Williamson should feel no pressure to return to get paid when first eligible at the end of this season.  Being the top pick in 2019 and a game-changer on the court practically guarantees him his money.  

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: The Sacramento Kings Need Another Shakeup

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The necessity of a trade is sometimes the fault of a player not living up to his end of the contract or a front offices’ miserable ability at building a winner.  Assembling a quality squad through the draft takes years.  It only makes it more painful for those competing or the devoted supporters who spend their money and time on the product when the people in charge have no plan.

 

It seemed like there was an idea for the Sacramento Kings after the 2017 draft.  They got a gold claim in De’Aaron Fox, the most dynamic guard in the class who had just fallen in their laps.  But in the following years, Sac took two guys who play the same position as Fox and had another miscalculation picking Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic. 

 

The Kings have the longest active playoff drought in the NBA (15), and their best player, the Fox, is already on his second deal.  It’s the first year of a five-year contract worth  $163 million, the largest in the organization’s history.  Unfortunately, the Kings make roster upgrades at a snail’s pace.  The Fox might be on his third contract before this outfit breaks its abysmal streak of failure.

 

But they shouldn’t wait that long.  With three players who should have their opportunity to claim the QB spot, Sacramento got very lucky that Tyrese Haliburton is versatile enough to be a secondary initiator and tall enough to play shooting guard.  The problem is the team is too small if it plays the three of them at once, and the Kings reluctantly do so. 

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Usually, rebuilding teams in the lottery want their young guys competing with each other to build chemistry.  Three of the last four first-round picks for Sacramento (Fox, Haliburton, Davion Mitchell) have shared the floor in eight different lineups this season.  None of those rotations that Sacramento uses with its three point guards averages more than 8.2 minutes per game.  

 

Mitchell might have been the best player available, but if the Kings needed a guard that badly, perhaps they should have taken Chris Duarte, who is four inches taller and a more effective marksman.  He fell to Indiana at 13.  

 

On Nov. 21, the Kings fired coach Luke Walton adding another name to the graveyard of instructors who tried to turn the team around.  I’m not here to say Walton was anything special as a coach, but the blame for the team’s record cannot be entirely placed on him.  Perhaps he’d still have a job if former general manager Vlade Divac knew a generational talent when he saw one.  

 

Picking Mitchell in the previous draft was President Monte McNair’s choice.  Despite the poor start to the 2021/2022 campaign, the Kings have the ammo to make significant modifications to the lineup.  It starts with putting Fox on the trade market.  

 

 It was reported in July (before the draft) that Sacramento was one of the teams interested in Philadelphia’s disgruntled All-Star Ben Simmons.  The Kings had an opportunity to get him, but they didn’t want to include Fox or Haliburton in a deal.  And that’s why “scared money don’t make no money,” as Jeezy said.

 

Simmons was one of the finalists for the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2021.  The Kings are 28th this season in defensive rating, needing versatility and size in their frontcourt.  Simmons could have provided that and the threat of a ball-handler in exchange for Fox.  Philadelphia likely won’t be interested now in a swap with Sacramento after the emergence of Tyrese Maxey.

 

And that’s also why Grover Washington sang, “Good things come to those who wait, but not for those who wait too late.”  

 

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: Eyes on Adam Silver after LeBron, Stewart Scrap

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The NBA needs to show it still has some balls. LeBron James lost his self-control Sunday night in Detroit and delivered one of the most vicious blows seen on an NBA court since Metta Sandiford-Artest, formerly Ron, elbowed James Harden over nine years ago. 

 

Isaiah Stewart, a 20-year-old sophomore in the league, was the recipient of James’ brutality.  The strike left a gash above Stewart’s right eye and an understandable appetite to settle the score.  

 

Stewart was physically hurt by a man large and strong enough to leave a regular person comatose had they been the victim. 

 

When it happened, LA was down 12 points with over nine minutes left in the third quarter.  James and Stewart were battling for positioning as Jerami Grant attempted his second free throw.  Then bang.

 

James turned around, appearing instantly remorseful, but it was too late.  Stewart saw red and rushed after the Lakers star three times, unable to get close enough.

 

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It was one of the rare instances in modern NBA times in which a player wanted to throw hands.  James was fortunate the court was crowded with players and coaches from both teams, as well as refs and police, in between him and the young man he assaulted. 

 

What could have happened if James connected a few inches to the side and hit Stewart’s temple?  Possibly, a concussion or, even worse, permanent brain damage.  Hopefully, it’s something commissioner Adam Silver factors into his disciplinary ruling.

 

Adam Silver, commissioner of the NBA

 

James deserves all of the blame because he was cruel.   There is no chance this is news if he doesn’t forget how to act like a professional by attacking someone 16 years younger than him.  Stewart repeatedly going after James did not look good either.  But it isn’t fair to him for the league to expect him to compose himself when such a massive man could have broken his face.

 

Anger in such circumstances is a perfectly reasonable reaction.  Stewart should not get suspended for more than a game, and it would look odd if he does.  On Nov. 10, the NBA gave a slap on the wrist to MVP Nikola Jokic, suspending him a game for elbowing Markieff Morris in the back.  

 

 

James should get a minimum of five games, but Silver barely held Jokic accountable with his penalty.  It made the league look soft on disciplining those with status.  The same mistake should not be made twice in less than two weeks.

 

It was a sad look for the NBA.  The Pistons public address announcer had to tell fans not to approach the floor.  It was a sour reminder of Malice at the Palace, despite not getting close to the level of destruction that was caused 17 years ago.

Tyler Herro’s 3rd Year Leap Is Real and Its Spectacular

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More often than not players drafted in the late lottery don’t amount to as much as their top 10 counterparts. Over the past decade; there have been numerous examples to the contrary with guys like Devin Booker, Giannis Antetonkounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, and Bam Adebayo. They do get the benefit of less pressure to be great right away. The public will consider their development to take quite a bit longer than a player selected in the top 5. And most of this was true for the guys listed above. However, Tyler Herro wasn’t gifted that same leeway after 2 seasons.

Herro made a big splash in his first season that not many expected. Heat fans marveled at the timely shots he’d hit for a team that was spearheaded by the addition of Jimmy Butler. You saw why the Heat saw in him took him over guys like Grant Williams, Romeo Langford, and Sekou Doumbouya.

Then came the hiatus of the season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Herro took the sudden offseason as an opportunity to add his growing platter of hoop appetizers. Heat fans witnessed as he showed new tricks in his bag. Tricks that included better finishing, simple reads in the pick-and-roll, and crafty moves around the painted area. The organization could not have asked for more but he kept delivering with a solid playoff run.

 

Despite the way the media has covered the Heat since the FInals run, it was not something atypical for Herro. His playoff numbers were very similar to his regular season and lined up with those of his follow-up season. His 37 point performance vs the Celtics has clouded the view of NBA fans to the point of blind arrogance.

The Finals run caused everyone to expect even more the following season. The weight of expectations was unfair to someone who had already shown tons of improvement in between the hiatus, which was as long as an entire offseason. The crazy part is that he still improved his raw numbers despite a very obvious down year for him. He went through lingering injuries, no offseason, and trade rumors swirling throughout the year. The organization stuck with him and knew the reps he was getting would pay off in the future.

What we’re witnessing in the 2021-22 season is the reward for that patience. A player that fans were so quick to give up just 8 months ago. But even for someone like me who was buying the Herro stock everyone was selling, what I’m seeing is shocking even me. The way the game has slowed down for Tyler and the improvements to an already beautiful jumper is second to none. The freedom and joy he’s playing with are fueling a Miami bench to being one of the best in the league.

The most noticeable improvement I’ve seen to his scoring game is how deliberate he is at getting to his spots on the floor. Herro’s body language is saying “I’m getting to the elbow off this high pick and roll and you’re giving me an open 3 or I’m dribbling at my pace and getting to the mid-range.” He rarely looks rushed or out of control, always playing at his pace.

He’s still getting better with his finishing and learning the intricacies of the floater he added early in his career. Herro has already mastered using the backboard for tough finishes against bigger defenders. Finishing through contact is still not his strong suit but you see the promise there.

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There’s more you can point at from Herro this season but really the shotmaking has plainly been nearly elite-level. He’s getting to the level where it doesn’t matter how good the defense; that shots going in. There’s been countless of times his shots leave your mouth agape as if you were The Scream painting. Herro may not have the wingspan but his size for a 2-guard will allow him to get off shots on plenty of defenders. This is why the added height on his jumper has been so crucial for his jumper.

There are so many spots where he can get even better. He’s still learning how to use the leverage of defenses playing him so high and making faster reads on doubles and hard hedges. Herro’s already shown flashes of growth in these segments. It’s a matter of when not if he’ll smooth them out. The biggest thing that’ll truly get him into the consistent All-Star caliber player will be when he masters the art of the free-throw line.

The newly added strength has helped Tyler not get pushed off his spots so much. He has also shown more willingness and ability to fight through contact at the rim. The last step is to consistently get to the line for free points, especially as an 80+ percent shooter. He’s currently at only 2.7 FTA a game. If he were to jump that to even just around 4 FTA, it would be huge for him.

Those little things are truly the last few steps to him becoming THAT guy. As someone who’s been high on Herro, even I find it hard to believe how far he’s come. At 22-4-5 on 46/39/86 splits in his third season, the best has yet to come. The Devin Booker/CJ McCollum/Zach Lavine comparisons have been there but I’m done trying to compare him like that. We should enjoy watching Tyler grow into another late lottery gem uncovered by the Heat.

A player who’s gotten better every season so far isn’t stopping now. He’s setting records for Heat bench players left and right while being amongst the league leaders in 4th quarter scoring. No one expected what we’re witnessing to happen when he was drafted 13th in 2019. Think about what he’ll look like next season and the season after that. Heat fans should feel blessed that they were able to draft someone of his caliber so late in the lottery.

Tyler will start in the not so far off future and it might unlock even more of his game. But for now, he’s their weapon of mid-range destruction off the bench. After all, patience is how we got to this point. There will be bumps along the way, shooting slumps, and random hiccups. Don’t let any of those things deter your confidence in the young shooting guard; he certainly won’t. Everyone can start thinking about the next leap, but take some time to enjoy the current one.

 

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Everything Tradeshows is a one-stop-shop for trade show exhibit rentals and custom exhibit display purchase solutions to companies of all sizes.

Visit them at EverythingTradeShows or call 954-791-8882

Mateo’s Hoop Diary: No Show John in Houston

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No one, at this moment, has a better NBA gig than John Wall of the Houston Rockets.  His job is so sweet the team doesn’t need him to break a sweat.  They’d prefer he mentor a group with an abysmal record when Wall himself knows little of winning at the pro level.  

 

Wall owes a debt of gratitude to James Harden, who left Houston in January, pouting and shouting, for the Brooklyn Nets.  NBA Insider Peter Vecsey explained to me last week that Harden signed off on Wall as Russell Westbrook’s replacement, but he foully elected not even to give it a chance.  

 

Next in line for some props is the operator Rich Paul, superagent of Wall and leader of Klutch Sports. The way I see it, Paul is walking all over Tilman Fertitta, the majority owner of the club.  The plan, reported back in September, was for Wall not to play as the team worked on a trade.  Even then, it was a confusing idea, given Wall only participated in 56% of last season.  Surely, suitors contemplating taking on such an extraordinary contract would probably want to see more.  

 

Thursday, ESPN reported Wall is unlikely to compete in 2022 as no other team is interested in his services at $44 million.  A buyout shouldn’t be expected either.  With that latest development, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be earning his money instead of benefitting from a no-show job.

 

Wall was good enough in 2021 to put up over 20 points per game after not playing for nearly two years, recovering from injuries. Almost a month into their campaign, the Rockets have one win, 13 losses and are on a 12-game losing streak.   It’s ludicrous to assume that Wall, who has received 5 All-Star nods in the past and still has game, can’t help this team.  

 

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The Rockets are at the beginning of a rebuilding project, and to their credit, Houston has nice prospects to build around.  Yet, the higher-ups are not helping this group as they should.  The average age of H-Town’s starting lineup is 24 years old.  It’s hard to win with young players in a man’s league when few veterans have a spot in the rotation.

 

If this soft tank job keeps up, the Rockets will match their 20-game losing streak of last season by Dec. 3.  Only 13 teams in NBA history have dropped 20 in a row, per The Athletic.  Houston might do it twice in two seasons, all for favorable positioning in the lottery.  

 

Perpetual losing is a tone-setter that poisons the minds of all those involved.  What kind of example is it for the young players on the Rockets when someone perfectly healthy doesn’t want to help them win?

 

Coach Stephen Silas paid his dues nearly 19 years as an assistant and scout to have an opportunity as he has now.  It isn’t fair to him that the organization and Paul have determined which players he can use.  

 

Wall committed to an extension as a member of the Washington Wizards in July 2017.  He didn’t sign up to play for the Rockets, but he should kick rocks.  Getting traded to where you don’t want to go is a part of the business.  This reluctance to play highlights his entitled behavior that will probably scare off those he is looking to woo from afar.

 

There’s no honor in tanking.  All the Rockets’ top brass are doing is putting peoples jobs in jeopardy.  

Duncan Robinson: Patience or Panic?

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Three weeks into the Heat season, it has become impossible to ignore the noise surrounding Duncan Robinson’s shooting slump.  The topic has become more divisive to Heat Twitter – with some ready to promote Tyler Herro to the starting lineup and others patiently waiting for the slump to vanish.  I decided to look back at NBA history and attempt to identify parallels between Duncan and other three point specialists.  I also analyzed the shot profile from the past three seasons to see how Duncan’s role has shifted on this new Heat roster and how that could be playing into his early struggles.  Finally, I’ll jump into some adjustments that we could see to get Duncan back on track.

 

HISTORICAL PRECEDENT

 

When looking historically for a player comparison for Duncan Robinson, it’s almost unprecedented to find a player used so strongly as a three-point specialist.  Obviously the game has changed, and while the NBA added the three-point line in 1979, the volume of shots changed drastically in the past decade.  

 

After 11 games, 89.1% of Duncan’s field goal attempts come from behind the arc.  While that is clearly still a small sample size, his past seasons of 85.5% in 2020-2021, and a league-high 88.2% in 2019-2020 show the role he is designated within our offense.  This isn’t happening by accident, it’s by design.

 

It’s hard to blame Erik Spoelstra for this usage.  Duncan holds a top 20 career percentage (41.5%) in NBA history.  He shot 42.7% on over 1200 attempts during the past two seasons.  That is why the coaches, his teammates, and opponents continue to respect his outside shot despite early struggles.

 

Duncan is among 49 players in NBA history with above a 40% career three-point percentage.  In that group, only 18 players have attempted more three-point field goals than two-point field goals – and as expected, most of these came over the past decade.  Duncan leads that group with an astounding 6.5 three-point attempts to every two-point attempt.  The only other players above a 2:1 ratio?  Steve Novak 3.5 to 1, and Davis Bertans 3.4 to 1.  

 

While attempts tell one story, the most important thing is making those shots.  As we’ve seen many times, if Duncan isn’t hitting threes, what does he contribute offensively?  Currently this season, 85% of Duncan’s points came from behind the arc – which is actually third in the league behind Danny Green (90.5%) and Wayne Ellington (87.1%).  For reference, in the past two seasons, three pointers were responsible for 79.6% of Duncan’s points in 2020-2021 and 82.4% of his points in 2019-2020.  Not surprising, he was 2nd to only Danny Green (80.3%) last season, and edged out Wayne Ellington (82.0%) in 2019-2020.  

 

Over the Erik Spoelstra era, Duncan is not the first Heat player with a heavy ratio of threes.  Looking at single-season data, the Heat have had players such as Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Jones, Wayne Ellington, Jae Crowder, Bill Walker, Luke Babbitt, and Yakhouba Diawara with better than 3:1 ratios.  (Bonus points if you anticipated Bill Walker, Luke Babbitt, or Yakhouba Diawara to be mentioned in this article)

 

With that precedent, clearly Spoelstra is comfortable with Duncan’s utilization.  And while I don’t think anyone would argue adding counters to his game is a bad thing, the Heat are comfortable showcasing the current version of Duncan Robinson.  But with the early season struggles, the elephant in the room is getting harder to ignore – what is wrong with Duncan this season?

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SHIFTING SHOT PROFILE

 

After diving down the rabbit hole of Second Spectrum data, I’ve tried to point out a few areas that stand out after 11 games.  I will make it clear that 11 games is a way too small sample size when compared to two full seasons, so remember that we are still early in the season!

 

With Jimmy, Bam, and the addition of Kyle Lowry, and the growth of Tyler Herro, there is no surprise that Duncan’s opportunities for catch and shoot threes are plentiful.  With those types of attempts up nearly one per game, his effectiveness has plummeted to a putrid 30.0% on those shots.  For comparison, he averaged 43% on those shots over the past two seasons.  He’s shooting significantly higher (50.0%) on one-dribble threes but on nearly six less attempts per game.  I’ll touch on the dribble later, but I can’t possibly buy into the idea that Duncan is better off the dribble.  In most cases, it will lead to a more contested shot because it allows the defender(s) to recover.  

 

The attention drawn by those scorers also allows Duncan to find wide open shots despite the attention that all defenses throw at him.  Unfortunately for the Heat, open shots haven’t translated into made baskets.  Duncan is shooting 31.0% on 3.8 open three-point attempts (closest defender 4-6 feet away), compared to 40.7% last season and 47.7% the previous season on 3.4 attempts.  

 

It’s not surprising that contested shots would have a lower field goal percentage, but the bar is high for a shooter like Duncan Robinson.  Over the past two seasons, Duncan has shot 41% (19-20) and 37% (20-21) on tightly contested three pointers where the defender is 2-4 feet away.  This season, Duncan is shooting 29.7% on those attempts.  Quite simply, Duncan has to be better in order to be considered one of the best shooters in the league.  

 

Finally, one of the intangible powers that is connected to Duncan is the concept of “gravity”.  With such an elite shooter, he draws the attention of defenses towards him, and thus allows his teammates to operate in more space away from him.  Part of that gravity is due to the elite shot making ability he has from outside the arc, but it is also due to the constant movement that Duncan brings to the Heat offense.  In past year’s, defending Duncan meant the challenge of constantly chasing him off pin downs, floppy actions, and DHOs.  This season however, the distance he’s traveling per game is down nearly 12%.  

 

What does that mean?  Being more of a standstill shooter is still a difficult proposition for defenders – staying even a step closer to Duncan makes help on drives more difficult, but it is certainly easier than chasing him around screens.  While not making too much of body language, Duncan cannot allow performance to impact effort.  His constant movement fatigues his defender and will continue to draw the attention of all five defenders on the floor.  Until teams completely disregard Duncan as a non-threat, he can impact defenses with his movement.

 

ADJUSTMENTS

 

So what is the counter?  We had belief after this offseason that Duncan was adding to his game and anticipated something like a shot fake into a 1-2 dribble pull-up.  With defenders closing hard to take away the arc, it seemed like a natural progression to allow Duncan to contribute inside the arc.  After 11 games, Duncan has attempted eleven shots inside the lane and one mid-range jump shot.  The one mid-range jump shot made me check multiple websites to verify because it seems almost unfathomable.  

 

Over the past two seasons, he only attempted 35 of these mid-range shots and was largely ineffective.  I trust that this was part of Duncan’s offseason training because he said it himself on The Long Shot podcast.  How is it possible that after 11 games, he has just one attempt in the mid-range?  

 

Could it be not so much what type of shot he is getting, or where those shots are coming from, but when those shots are happening?  Looking at last season’s data, Duncan’s three-point field goal percentage drops the deeper you get into the shot clock.  Why?

 

When Duncan is getting opportunities very early in the shot clock (18 seconds or earlier), you’d expect to see him running to the wing or the corner and getting hit ahead passes in transition.  Last season, Duncan shot 43.9% on just over 1 attempt per game.  The frequency of these attempts are understandably low, but it more importantly the threat forces the defense to defend sideline-to-sideline and baseline-to-baseline and opens up the middle of the floor for others to attack. That’s the base layer for any transition attack.

 

Much as been argued about the use of DHO but when utilized early in the offense as part of their secondary break, it allows an opportunity for Duncan to get loose (41.7% on attempts between :15-:18 on the shot clock) but also still provides enough time for the ball to switch sides of the floor and get to the next best action.  While some point that the Heat are “trying to get Duncan going” with the early DHO, it’s just part of layering actions together and much less about force feeding Duncan Robinson.

 

As the shot clock gets under seven seconds, it becomes problematic for Duncan to touch the ball.  His three point shooting percentage is sub-38% in these situations over the past season and even worse this year.  If he is not getting a catch and shoot opportunity, the odds of a successful possession drop significantly.  For all Duncan is great at, he’s not a great creator with the dribble or the pass.  It often leads to a poor shot, turnover, or shot clock violation.  

 

CONCLUSION

 

As mentioned before, Duncan’s three point ratio is almost unmatched in league history.  He’s a unique and very talented shooter, but I believe diversification needs to occur to balance nights when the outside shot isn’t falling.  Instead of a 6:1 ratio, Duncan needs to trend more towards the ratios of historical comparisons like Danny Green (1.8), Kyle Korver (1.6), Joe Harris (1.3), and JJ Redick (1.1).  I’d be much more comfortable with a ratio near 3:1 than his current pace.  

 

Although he’s surprisingly fairly effective finishing inside the restricted area, the focus should be on adding mid-range counters.  The problem is that growth occurs in the offseason not during the season.  So I wouldn’t expect to see drastic changes from Duncan’s shot profile anytime soon.  

 

The Heat should continue to utilize him early in their secondary break, and then allow the offense to flow into the next best action.  This doesn’t mean that Duncan needs to be part of every initial action, but he cannot be effective if utilized as a standstill shooter.  

That being said, I’m also a strong believer that the 1200+ shot sample size from two full seasons holds more value than less than 100 shots in the first 11 games.  While it appears to have become a mental struggle, he won’t be the first or last shooter to enter a slump, and so the most important signal for Heat fans is that they continue to create good shots opportunities for him to take and turn around this slow start.