Heat can’t afford to lose Juwan Howard twice

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The star player-coach relationship remains one of the most enigmatic, fascinating dynamics in all the NBA. Most any head coach will tell you that building chemistry and maximizing the skill set of a super star can be one of the most challenging elements of the gig. Even the coaches who do it well don’t do it perfectly.

Those challenges extend far beyond relationships with just star players. However, it can’t be denied that a team often takes its cues from how the head coach and the alpha personalities mesh.

Sometimes the challenges go beyond X’s and O’s. It comes down to establishing trust through communication. We see it year after year as it relates to virtually all the big NBA names and their respective head coaches.

Jay Z told us “It’s a secret society, all we ask is trust”, then that line was skillfully recycled by Kendrick Lamar to remind today’s generation. That sentiment is held in high regard by the fraternity that is NBA players and coaches.

It’s something Erik Spoelstra has at times excelled at, particularly on the court.

However, Spoelstra has also experienced struggles with some of the back of the house stuff from a communication perspective. His player relationships have ranged from perfect moments of on court maximization, to clumsy works in progress.

Thankfully for the Heat and Spoelstra, any gaps have been filled by arguably the most popular coach on the staff among the players, especially since David Fizdale left for bigger opportunities. Communication is the utmost strength of the man that many consider the most underrated head-coach-in-waiting throughout the entire league.

And that’s Juwan Howard.

Howard, in only a handful of seasons as NBA coach, has become the roots of the Heat coaching tree as it bears fruit in areas such as player development. He fills the spaces between the boxes on an org chart. He’s become the glue.

When the time comes for the Heat to execute succession plans, one that may entice Spoelstra off the sideline and into the front office, count me among those who think Howard is the right man to usher in the next evolution of Heat basketball as head coach.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Dan Craig. Craig is one of the best basketball minds around. But as superstar player relationships have become as important as ever in team building activities, I am in favor of a shift to the prototypical player’s coach.

Howard is a Heat player magnet; there is always a Heat player within arms reach of him when in the facility. In working so intently on building trusting relationships off the court, he organically compels them to work harder on it. Howard also seems to repel all the noise that only gets in the way. Because he’s been there. He gets it. From the perspective of lottery pick to All Star to role player and now coach.

“Having someone who has played the game and lived the NBA lifestyle,” Heat guard Rodney McGruder told Five Reasons Sports. “Someone you can relate to, who played in the league for 19 years, for so many different organizations. Anytime he speaks you listen because of that respect, because of the type of player he was and his success in the league. Anytime he talks you buy in because he’s lived it, he’s been in your shoes, he knows every situation, every predicament. You try to stay around a guy like that. His energy, the energy that he gives to prepare before a game. Even when we are working with the scout team in practice, just the energy and feedback that he gives us is big time.”

Speaking of scout teams in practice, his working sessions with Heat players often extend through media availability at shoot around and are an frequent mix of footwork and movement.

And lots of defense.

Defense is the longstanding calling card of all successful Heat teams, so defense being the specialty of Howard makes him the ideal fit going forward.

“He’s probably our biggest defensive coach.” Josh Richardson told Five Reasons Sports recently. “Any defensive adjustments that need to be made, he’ll normally pick those out and tell us about it. He’s our emotional coach. The coach that will get us going, get us back in the ball game, get us excited.”

Howard’s passion is contagious. His ability to relate to players, get them to buy in to the culture and want to be coached, is exemplified in his relationship with Heat point guard Justise Winslow.

“He’s been great. Just with me, we have of connection through Coach (John) Lucas down in Houston.” Winslow told Five Reasons Sports. “He knows the basketball environment that I grew up in and where I come from.”

Howard has the unique ability to tangibly challenge players in a genuine, healthy way. There’s an evolutionary balance that exists in how much you effectively push today’s NBA athlete.

“He’s always pushing me to be the best player on both sides of the ball,” Winslow added. “Holding me accountable to a different and higher standard than most (other players) defensively is something that I am extremely grateful for. He wants me to be an all- defensive player. I told him that’s one of my goals for my career, to be a 1st or 2nd team All defensive player at different points of my career. He has been holding me to that standard.”

Howard seems to evoke the respect of the players in an almost intuitive fashion… likely because some of his players were his peers not so long ago.

“For me, I played with him, so I still have that relationship with him as a player,” Udonis Haslem told Five Reasons Sports. “I respect him so much, not only as a coach, but a guy who has been in the trenches with me. So, it’s like double respect. It’s the respect as a coach and it’s respect as you’ve been in the trenches with me. I know if my back is against the wall you are one of the guys I can depend on it. I still call him (Howard) Big Homie. Even though we’ve played together and had so many opportunities together I still look up to Juwan and value his opinion and everything he can bring.”

Juwan has helped Derrick Jones Jr. continue to refine his game and learn new positions to maximize his skillset.

“Coach Juwan helped me out a lot personally, because coming here I had never played the four,” Jones Jr. told Five Reasons Sports. “Switching to the four, and having to learn the pick and roll coverages with my man as the screener, he helped me fast track that a whole lot. Sitting down watching film with him, Bam, Hassan and KO. That helped me out a lot. He is just one of those people here to help. He’s here to serve you. Whatever you need he’s always going to be there to help teach you everything he learned in this game. For him to be here and devote his time to us, I’m grateful for that.”

And here’s another thing: you hear him.

“He’s obviously a really important voice for us.” Kelly Olynyk told Five Reasons Sports. “Having played so many years in this league at a super high level. He’s been there, he’s done it, so he knows what it takes. Just trying to be there offensively and a lot of times defensively. Especially for the bigs, how to guard certain actions, pick and rolls. A constant reminder of what you’re doing and how to do it better. For us he’s all about that.”

Now let’s pivot back to the star player-coach relationship topic.

Currently such a dynamic would be classified as a luxurious, first world problem in Miami. The next superstar centerpiece for any coach to relate to in Miami is as much a mystery as Heat injury reports are these days. I mean yes there’s still Dwyane, but he is not there to make waves at this stage. Beyond Wade, no true alpha super star has been identified or acquired.

But let’s fast forward and operate under the assumption that, within the next two years, as flexibility increases and the team’s core solidifies, that the Heat find a way to nab a true alpha to lead the way. Howard sure seems like the type of coach that players around the league will want to run through walls for.

“Just his voice in the locker room, we have a lot of great coaches and they all have great backgrounds and great basketball intelligence, but he’s a legend.” Winslow said. “What he’s seen on and off the court, being a part of the Fab 5 and some of the things he had to go through.”

All of this points to the inevitably that Howard will be a highly sought-after head coach option throughout the league, maybe even by LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers as soon as this summer. Whispers are getting louder that he is the darkhorse candidate when the Lakers begin their search for a replacement for current, beleaguered, leader Luke Walton.

And now Vegas is catching on:

If the Heat organizational chart is close to an unavoidable shuffle, don’t let timing get in the way of doing what’s best for the franchise going forward. Figure out what needs to happen to ensure he isn’t lured away by James.

The Heat had and then lost Juwan Howard, the player, in 1996. That ultimately worked out in the Heat’s favor, as they recovered to sign Dan Majerle, who was an ideal fit for the lineup. I’m not so sure the second time around will be as fruitful or fortunate for Miami.

The Heat should do whatever is necessary to keep him in that locker room. With the the allure of LeBron and LA on the horizon, do it now, before it’s too late.

What happened to the Mike Gesicki we were promised?

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So, about Mike Gesicki….

The former second round draft choice of the Dolphins came in with a bevy of impressive highlight reels on social media and a set of measurements that had some referring to him as the most athletically gifted tight end the NFL Combine had ever seen.

Just look at this spider chart, via the MockDraftable website.

Sure, his weight (247 lbs.) came in perhaps 10 lbs. shy of distinction, and his height (6′ 5½”) has been bested by a few tight end prospects throughout the years. But the combination of the above has arguably never been seen.

For reference, compare the above chart to that of infamous Dolphins draft bust Michael Egnew, who became known for failure to deliver on his athletic promises (and for using his jersey number as his phone passcode):

In Dolphins training camp, Gesicki made “wow,” plays nearly every day.

Here’s just a taste of that action:

Fast-forward to the regular season and, according to Pro Football Focus, Mike Gesicki played a total of 400 of the offense’s 921 snaps, with 31 targets, 22 catches, 202 yards, and 0 touchdowns.

So…what gives?

In addition to obvious factors such as unacceptable quarterback play, low number of offensive snaps due to the offense’s inability to convert third downs, etc., the answer may lie in the rookie tight end’s usage.

When Gesicki and fellow rookie tight end Durham Smythe were drafted, Dolphins coaches such as offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains made it clear that while Smythe was considered a classic “Y” (in-line tight end), Gesicki’s primary role would be the “F” (off-formation or move tight end) position.

In some ways, this seemed immediately problematic.

Nowadays, NFL offenses have become completely reliant on what is known as “11” personnel, which is to say a group of personnel featuring only one running back and three wide receivers. This is a single-TE personnel grouping. According to Sharp Football Stats, the NFL used this “11” personnel group a staggering 65 percent of all plays in 2018.

Indeed, during the 2017 season head coach Adam Gase himself was at the forefront of “11” personnel usage. With a 73 percent share of the Dolphins offense’s snaps, only the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions offenses showing a higher reliance on “11” personnel.

In order to get a lot of work out of an “F” in an offense dominated by single-tight end, three-wide receiver personnel groups, the offense would have to line up in a lot of spread formations. Over-reliance on spread formation can make the offense susceptible to blitzes, while simultaneously posing challenges to a successful run game.

A quarterback that lacks mobility would be particularly challenged within this approach, as there is more pressure on the quarterback to handle blitzes with his own ability. Coming off two knee injuries in two years, this did not bode well for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, nor his relatively immobile backup Brock Osweiler.

The reality of the team’s quarterback situation dictated that if the team were to stick with reliance on “11” personnel, rookie Mike Gesicki would have to spend a significant number of snaps being used as a “Y” lined up on the shoulder of the offensive tackle, despite the Dolphins coaches’ own assessment of the player.

Being forced into such usage meant the rookie Gesicki would have to block like a “Y” in the run game and stay in to pass protect when certain blitz fronts called for it. The in-line position is not conducive to clean releases on pass routes, and fans saw multiple instances of Gesicki losing his balance while trying to deal with the physicality.

To put it bluntly, he was put in positions and roles his own coaches publicly acknowledged to be incompatible with what he showed in college. And, when it was apparent he could not be relied on to carry out these roles, he came off the field altogether.

According to Pro Football Focus, Mike Gesicki lined up on the shoulder of the offensive tackle nearly half of all snaps (44 percent). He stayed in to pass protect on about 20 percent of pass snaps. He was the lone tight end on the field on 72 percent of the snaps he took as a rookie.

When Mike Gesicki was put in position to make plays, the rookie actually came through.

Watching his full target reel on coaches tape was illuminating. He caught everything that was catchable, and he even made some things happen after the catch. He showed some ability to leverage off physical coverage and create his own windows. And he got open for some big plays that the quarterback missed.

The problem is one of frequency and opportunity. Those opportunities did not come often enough. If the Dolphins merely did the obvious, which would be to roll out multiple-tight end offensive personnel groups on a regular basis, that might have been different.

The Baltimore Ravens, who got impressive results out of rookie tight end Mark Andrews, used multiple-tight end personnel on 39 percent of their plays. The Philadelphia Eagles, who got impressive results out of rookie tight end Dallas Goedert, used multiple-tight end personnel on nearly 43 percent of their plays.

Back in 2010 the New England Patriots selected tight end Rob Gronkowski in the second round, followed by tight end Aaron Hernandez in the fourth round. It was very similar to the Dolphins selecting Gesicki in the second round and following up by choosing Durham Smythe in the fourth round.

But that is where the similarities end. From 2011 to 2012 the Patriots used multiple-tight end offense a staggering 66 percent of their plays, while in 2018 the Dolphins used multiple-tight end offense on only 16 percent of plays.

Aaron Hernandez played the “F” position in those New England offenses. He was on the field with other tight ends about 86 percent of his snaps. He only stayed in to block on 4 percent of pass plays. And he lined up on the shoulder of the offensive tackle only about 14 percent of plays.

I bring up those numbers not just because of their stark contract to Gesicki, but because they may be a harbinger of what we could see from Miami going forward.

Some of the coaches designing Miami’s offense, including offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea and tight ends coach George Godsey, were coaching that Patriots offense built around multiple tight ends. What’s more, last year the New England Patriots were one the offenses in the NFL that were least reliant on “11” personnel, bucking the league trend.

When the Dolphins signed tight ends Dwayne Allen and Clive Walford to join Durham Smythe and Nick O’Leary, many saw this as increased competition for tight end Mike Gesicki, who could easily fall far down the depth chart.

But all four of the other tight ends are classic “Y” players. None of the four players look, or play, like Mike Gesicki. Given the experience of Miami’s new offensive coaches, a more plausible explanation for the acquisitions of Dwayne Allen and Clive Walford might be an attempt to unlock Gesicki’s potential.

And if that happens, we just might see the Mike Gesicki we were promised.

 

Chris Kouffman (@CKParrot) is a fan of the Miami Dolphins and long, long, long Twitter threads. Find him here on the @3YardsPerCarry podcast. 

The Miami Heat’s March Madness

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The month of March has brought quite the change of fortune for the Ballers on Biscayne. The Heat entered the month with a 27-34 record and sitting at 10th in a weak Eastern Conference. They were coming off a February that saw the team go 3-9 including bad blowout losses at home to the Thunder and Pistons. #TankSzn was in full effect. However, the end of February saw the Heat pull off a miracle win against the defending champion Warriors, thanks to an incredible buzzer beater by the one and only Dwyane Wade. Since then, the team is playing with a new lease on life and they’ve put it all together in March.

18-19 MIAMI HEAT BEFORE MARCH MARCH
RECORD
27-34
11-4
PLUS/MINUS PER GAME
-1.1
4.5
OFFENSIVE RATING
106.6
108.1
DEFENSIVE RATING
107.8
104.1
NET RATING
-1.2
4.0

Then again, Spoelstra-led teams have a pretty consistent habit of transforming themselves into a problem come spring time.

Let’s dig a little deeper into how the Heat have turned it around the past few weeks and who the difference makers have been.

March By the Numbers

Miami Net Rating Leaders

(via NBA STATS)

1. Kelly Olynyk | + 11.6 in 435 minutes

2. Justise Winslow | + 10.6 in 208 minutes

3. Bam Adebayo | + 10.4 in 402 minutes

4. Dion Waiters | + 6.3 in 410 minutes

5. Josh Richardson | + 5.9 in 467 minutes

Miami’s Best 2-Man Lineup Net Ratings

(minimum 100 minutes played)

1. Kelly Olynyk & Josh Richardson | +15.6 in 291 minutes

2. Kelly Olynyk & Justise Winslow | +15.5 in 165 minutes

3. Dion Waiters & Justise Winslow | +15.4 in 140 minutes

4. Justise Winslow & Josh Richardson | +15.1 in 138 minutes

5. Derrick Jones Jr. & Bam Adebayo | +14.4 in 174 minutes

Miami’s Most Used 5-Man Lineups

1. Justise Winslow | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Kelly Olynyk | Bam Adebayo

89 Minutes • 124.6 Offensive Rating • 97.8 Defensive Rating • 26.8 Net Rating

The New Starting Lineup (before Justise and Josh went down with injuries) had been dominating opponents with an inspired offensive attack that has been one of Miami’s best offensive units EVER. This lineup actually has a 121.4 ORTG in 121 minutes the entire season, and if they don’t play together again this season, would be the 2nd best offensive unit (min. 100 MP) in Spoelstra’s tenure as Head Coach. Back in 2012-13, the Heat had a 124.6 ORTG in the 112 minutes that Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh shared the court.

As much fun as that last paragraph was, even at 121 minutes we are still very much in the realm of Small Sample Size Theater, and I bring that up because of this incredible stat: all 4 players that have taken a 3 while this lineup is on the court are shooting 42% or better from behind the arc.

Name Minutes FG3M FG3A 3pt FG% Shot Quality eFG% TS%
Kelly Olynyk 121 9 13 69.2% 0.55 81.7% 87.1%
Justise Winslow 121 10 17 58.8% 0.54 66.7% 67.0%
Josh Richardson 121 8 19 42.1% 0.5 62.8% 60.7%
Dion Waiters 121 11 21 52.4% 0.57 54.4% 55.1%
Bam Adebayo 121 0 0 0.0% 0.56 73.3% 75.9%
(Shot Quality and Lineup Breakdown Data via PBPstats.com)

There is no way that Dion, Justise, and Kelly will continue shooting above 50% from behind the arc. That will come back down to Earth. However, it is encouraging that every player but Richardson has a Shot Quality well above the league average of 0.52. Shot Quality’s value shows you the expected effective field goal percentage on the type of shots a player takes. For example, a wide open 3-pointer is going to have a much higher Shot Quality than a guarded mid-range jumper. This lineup is doing a great job of getting high percentage looks and they are capitalizing.

Fun Fact: This Heat lineup has made 3x as many corner 3’s (18) as the 5-man lineup that has the second most made corner 3’s (6) on the team.

2. Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Derrick Jones Jr. | Kelly Olynyk | Bam Adebayo

80 minutes • 109.0 Offensive Rating • 96.8 Defensive Rating • 12.2 Net Rating

The Winslow-Less New Starting Lineup has also been doing a good job of beating teams down with Derrick Jones Jr. injected into the New Starting Lineup in place of the injured Justise Winslow who has been dealing with a bruised thigh the past few weeks. While the team wasn’t blowing teams out to the same extent as it’s predecessor, this lineup in particular really clamps down on the defensive end as they’ve held opponents to 44% eFG, which is 8% lower than their opponents expected shot quality, via pbpstats.com. They’ve also held opponents to 56% shooting at the rim (7% below the league average).

Offensively, they’ve been helped stay afloat thanks to Dion Waiters being 9 of 17 from 3 and holding a robust 75.8 TS% while this lineup has been on the court. The other surprising contribution? Bam Adebayo has shot 10 of 17 from mid-range during their minutes. Bam forcing defenders to respect his shot will help open things up offensively for this young group.

Defensively, the team just plays much better when they are using guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and James Johnson at the 3 instead of the 4. This gives the Heat more length, size, and athleticism to make things difficult for opposing offenses.

3. Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside

57 minutes • 88.9 Offensive Rating • 107.3 Defensive Rating • -18.4 Net Rating

The #FlashMob with Richardson saw it’s struggles in March, specifically on the offensive end. Despite having a pair of very capable handlers in Goran and Dwyane, this lineup has been let down by shooting struggles from Dragic (16 points on 24 FGA), Richardson (14 points on 19 FGA), and Johnson (10 points on 14 FGA), as well as Dragic (0.51 SQ) and Johnson (0.47 SQ) having below average shot qualities, which implies there have been a lot of tough shots in those attempts. James in particular has struggled to provide spacing during their minutes, as he’s shot 1 of 8 from behind the arc.

(Not so) Fun Fact: His lineup has yet to make a corner 3 this season on 7 attempts.

4. Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Josh Richardson | Derrick Jones Jr. | Hassan Whiteside

36 minutes • 94.6 Offensive Rating • 106.5 Defensive Rating • -11.9 Net Rating

The same lineup as before with Jones Jr. replacing James Johnson at the 4 fared a bit better, though still having struggles offensively. A couple of things stood out about this lineup in regards to those offensive woes: This lineup is shooting 23% from behind the arc as a unit, and they are taking an unusually high amount of mid-range jumpers during these minutes. 75% of Richardson’s attempts came from mid-range, where he shot 33% FG. 53% of Wade’s attempts came for mid-range, where he shot 40% FG. 44% of Dragic’s attempts came from mid-range, where he shot 42% FG. I’m not one of those people that says NEVER TAKE A MID-RANGE JUMPER like some of the MoreyBall purists, but I do believe that leaning into them too heavily is not good for your offense, and it plays out that way here.

5. Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Derrick Jones Jr. | Kelly Olynyk | Bam Adebayo

36 minutes • 117.5 Offensive Rating • 103.8 Defensive Rating • 13.7 Net Rating

Following the injuries to Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson, this became the starting lineup that Miami turned to once they lost both of their minutes leaders. It is the most used lineup that featured the 7-11 attack of Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters and has brought back memories of the 30-11 run from a few seasons ago. The offense is humming with this unit as Jones Jr. and Adebayo are living at the rim, combining for 13 of 16 FG around the basket. Goran Dragic is absolutely dealing while this lineup is playing, as he has 11 assists in those 36 minutes, with all 11 assists leading to either 3-pointers or baskets at the rim. Goran’s lob game has really come alive in recent weeks, which has always been a bit of a problem area for him. Another sign of a crisp offense: 75% of the baskets scored by this lineup have been assisted. Given that the Heat are only shooting 37% from behind the arc in these minutes, this could prove to be a sustainable lineup that Miami can lean on as they try to sneak into the playoffs.

Bam Adebayo – Unleashed

It’s not a coincidence that the Heat turning their season around began the very night that Bam Adebayo was inserted into the starting lineup against the Warriors. Bam played undoubtedly the best basketball of his career in March, and it’s not very surprising that it’s come in the first full month that Bam has started in his career. It could not have been an easy decision to replace Whiteside with Adebayo, considering Hassan is having one of the best seasons of his career.

Both big men have things in common that make them valuable: length, verticality, rim protection, and rebounding. However, there are a few things that Bam does that separate him from the Great Wall of Whiteside. Offensively, Bam brings more speed and activity to the role of screener and roller. Per NBA Stats, Bam’s average speed on offense is 6% faster than Hassan, meaning he covers ground faster and helps the offense get initiated, considering Miami’s propensity for running the pick and roll. It shows in the screen assist stats, as Bam is creating 11 screen assists points per 36 minutes compared to the 9.5 screen assists points Hassan created per 36 minutes. Part of that added value comes from the fact that 78% of Bam’s assists come either at the rim or from 3-point land, which is 10% higher than Hassan’s percentage of “Moreyball” assists.

The other significant difference is their mentality regarding passing, and I can’t find a better way to represent the difference than this: In about 100 more minutes played this season, Bam has generated more than 3x as many points as Hassan via assists (422 vs 125). While Bam was doing a lot of that damage via hand offs early in his career, we’ve seen a lot more dynamic passes in recent weeks.

In the first clip, you see Bam receive an entry pass at the elbow from Justise, and then the second he recognizes that both his man and Derrick’s man have turned their attention to him, he makes the smart pass to Jones Jr. for the quality look at the rim. In the second clip you see Kelly with the nice entry pass into the post. Bam begins to establish position in the post against Allen until he feels Harris cheating off of Winslow trying to create a turnover, and makes him pay for it the second he is committed with a quick kick out to Justise for an open three. Next you see Bam’s court vision in action as he quickly recognizes that Winslow has sealed off the nearest defender to Dwyane, who was never picked up in transition by the Raptors. Wide open splash down for Wade. The last clip best shows off Bam’s passing mentality, as he knew Justise was wide open even before receiving the pass and he instantly whipped the Richardson pass right out to Winslow for the open 3. These quick instinctual decisions are a big part of what separates Bam from his predecessor at the center position.

Defensively, Bam is a very different defender from Hassan. I’m not sure that Bam will ever be the rim protector that Hassan is, though very few players in the league can make that claim. What makes Bam a valuable defender is that he is more suited to go against small-ball lineups due to his ability to defend guards and athletic wings well in situations where the team is switching defensively.

Bam just eats up space defensively and makes it that much harder for opposing team’s to get clean looks whenever they are trying to get Bam’s assignment involved offensively. Bam is holding both pick and roll ball handlers as well as pick and roll roll men to 0.75 points per possessions, which is in the 85th percentile in the NBA in both metrics according to Synergy Sports. The other area where Bam makes a substantial impact is in transition defense due to his ability to get back quickly. The Heat allow almost 3 points per 100 possessions less in transition when Adebayo is on the court compared to Hassan.

When he brings all these things together, Bam Adebayo is a force to be reckoned with, as he showed in a big road win over the Wizards.

At 21 years old, Bam is just scratching the surface of his potential and now that he’s been thrown into the starting role, he is only going to get more reps to continue adding to his game. Just don’t forget who was on this hill from the beginning.

NFL Mock: Dolphins make good position group better

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This is my first attempt at an NFL Mock Draft for this draft season, and the top is becoming rather clear. Once you get past the first three picks, I slotted players based on each team’s most desperate need. As for your Miami Dolphins, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for Chris Grier, Brian Flores and company to strengthen an already strong position.

1. CARDINALS – Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

Newly minted Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury famously “called his shot” in October of 2018, as he said he would take Kyler Murray with the 1st overall pick if he could. Well, now he has that chance. So what happens with 2018 Draftee Josh Rosen? Traded, probably. Kyler Murray is too good to pass up and, in this writer’s opinion, would be a prospect on par with 2020 NFL Draft darling Tua Tagovailoa.

2. 49ERS – Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

I was told prior to Nick’s brother Joey being drafted 3rd overall by the San Diego Chargers that the “Best Bosa” was yet to come and that little brother Nick at St. Thomas Aquinas High School was better. I agree that he will be. Nick Bosa in my opinion is the best non quarterback in this draft. A signature player for the 49ers at #2.

3. JETS – Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky

The consummate EDGE rusher, very much in the Von Miller mold. Having Josh Allen opposite of Jordan Jenkins would give the New York Jets a rather imposing pass rush to go with standout Defensive lineman Leonard Williams. Allen would give the Jets a blue chipper in every position group on the defense. The obvious pick.

4. RAIDERS – Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

Jon Gruden traded away Khalil Mack in 2018. The Raiders added NFL Network star Mike Mayock, who will love a 6′-6″ 260 lb. Defender who ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. The Oakland defense is devoid of talent, and Montez Sweat is a good place to start to rebuild this decimated unit.

5. BUCCANEERS – Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

The writing is on the wall for Gerald McCoy, who could be on the way out of Tampa Bay. A trade of McCoy can save the Bucs some valuable cap space for Bruce Arians squad. Releasing him outright is not far fetched either. Best case scenario for McCoy fans is that you plug in a Ed Oliver to pay alongside McCoy in what could be one of the better DT tandems in the league. The more likely scenario is that Ed Oliver will replace McCoy, as the athletically freakish Oliver has drawn some comparisons to All-World DT Aaron Donald.

6. GIANTS – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Eli Manning is not it. The Manning era in New York brought two Super Bowl titles and what could be a Hall of Fame ceremony. But the time for that era to end is here. For Giants GM Dave Gettleman, it is not every year (hopefully for his sake, the last) when you are gift wrapped a QB due to draft position, and the circumstances of the teams preceding you in the order. The highly productive Haskins is a perfect fit at #6.

7. JAGUARS – Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

After jettisoning standout DT Malik Jackson, the Jags have to be thinking of ways to keep augmenting and maintaining their talented defense. One of those ways is to draft the Alabama star to anchor the run defense alongside another former Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus. Quinnen makes an already formidable Jags Defensive line even better. Pretty lucky to have him fall to #7.

8. LIONS – Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan

Ziggy Ansah is a Free Agent and is likely not to return to Matt Patricia’s defense. Rashan Gary is a Michigan product that is exactly the type of versatile defensive lineman that a Patricia unit requires. Some would say that this is a reach taking Gary this high, but the team, need, and player are too perfect a fit.

9. BILLS – Devin White, LB, LSU

Buffalo has some talent on defense, but lack a volume tackler in the linebacker unit. Drafting Devin White would also be a big boost for 2018 Draftee Tremaine Edmunds, who was playing somewhat out of position most of his rookie year. Devin White could be the best of a very strong linebacker class. The Bills can use one. They get one at #9.

10. BRONCOS – Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Where there is smoke there is fire? No player has been tied to a team more than Lock to Denver. The erratic Missouri signal caller, seems to have Team Executive John Elway’s eye, and many local insiders such as Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) have confirmed the Broncos interest. Drew Lock makes too much sense here.

11. BENGALS – T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Many consider Hockenson the best Tight End prospect in years. The Bengals have good talent on offense at RB (Joe Mixon), at WR (AJ Green) and now they can add a Tight end to that group. QB Andy Dalton would appreciate the help as he tries to hold on to a job that is slipping away from him. He gets one more year to stick in Cincinnati, this time with the best Tight End in the draft.

12. PACKERS – Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

The best offensive tackle in the draft. David Bakhtiari returns as one of the best left tackles in football to protect Aaron Rodgers’ blindside, but Bryan Bulaga has not been reliable at right tackle as of late, due to injury and some ineffectiveness. The window to win in Green Bay is now, and Taylor is the most NFL ready Tackle available. He starts at RT for the Packers from day 1.

13. DOLPHINS – Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

For a team with many needs, why would they add a player to a position group that is already pretty good? Might as well start becoming “elite” at something. I’m a big fan of Reshad Jones, but I realize he is not for long for the Miami Dolphins and the real core of the secondary is All Pro CB Xavien Howard and now 2nd year standout, the versatile Minkah Fitzpatrick. Let’s face it, the Fins are under-manned to play the coverages and defenses that Flores wants to play. Greedy Williams reminds me of Antonio Cromartie or Aqib Talib. A perfect compliment to Xavien Howard as a boundary corner. Greedy is also very good in Man coverage, the style of coverage that Flores gravitates toward. Greedy, Xavien, Minkah is a head start on rebuilding this defense.

 

Alfredo Arteaga (@UptownReport) is one of the three-headed monster on Three Yards Per Carry. He will remind you that he called Kallen Ballage to the Dolphins last year. 

South Florida Front Page

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Hey, hi, meet Five Reasons Sports

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Who are you?

Don’t worry, we get that a lot.

Who are you? What are you? Why are you?

We get it. It’s warranted. It’s understood. We didn’t exist a year ago, at least not collectively, not as the amalgam of Miami sports media misfits we are now.

Five Reasons Sports? What the hell is that?

(We sort of explain on the FAQs page here, but yeah, we’re faking it.).

Individually, you knew some of us.

You were a fan of the Miami Dolphins when they were trying to win? That O.J. McDuffie guy, the toughest teammate Dan Marino ever had, was always in the middle of it. Would have been fun for Dan to have played with our Chris Chambers too. And Seth Levit might have been nearby after the game, making sure to keep media nuisances like me from asking any probing questions.

You watch the Florida Panthers or Miami Heat on television?

Good shot you are aware of Steve Goldstein and Jason Jackson.

Probably more aware of Jax. It’s the ascot thing. Or that it… is… never… time for him to stop talking.

You scan Twitter to find out which future MVP that the Miami Marlins traded now? You probably saw it break from Craig Mish’s feed. Sometimes, he’s right.

You’ve trolled the Miami Dolphins message boards? There you have found the most detailed, thoughtful analysis on our troubled NFL team, from three characters who go by CK, Simon and Uptown — and then you may have re-read that very same analysis later in a major metropolitan newspaper under the name Chris Cordero. (Google it. Thank us later.)

You’ve followed a Miami Heat game on social media? Then you know all 3,123 of the Miami Heat Beat crew, some of whom can spell. (Thank you, Nekias.) They’re unbelievably unavoidable. And the one screaming is Alf. It’s always Alf. We know. Culture good, Process bad. Why’d we put you on a second podcast?

You’ve heard a radio play-by-play broadcast on Sports USA? Then you’ve heard Josh Appel. (OK, no one’s ever heard Sports USA. Sorry, Josh. That’s why you do wrestling here.).

You’ve heard of the Ballscast? No, you haven’t. We definitely haven’t. We tell every attorney at Seltzer Mayberg (shameless plug for a sponsor! we do that!) we haven’t. That podcast has a guy named Slim, with a Proper Sausages sandwich named after him?

But he’s not…. slim…..

You’ve been irritated by an unsolicited soccer opinion or an NBA playoff spreadsheet on the radio? Might have been Chris Wittyngham. Yeah, it was Chris Wittyngham.

And me?

Yeah, at some point over the past quarter-century you’ve probably read or heard something from me. Or about me. Better not to believe all of the latter.

(This is what this crew thinks of me in our group chat, by the way….)

So that’s who we are, individually.

But collectively? That’s something different.

We’re something different.

We’re…. you.

I know. We’re not thrilled about it either.

We’re the ones who care way too much about the local teams, even when they definitely don’t deserve it, which is basically all of them now. (I know, I know, the Heat will fix it.). We’re the ones who tweet about every play of every game, who create the mindless memes and .gifs (Camby!), who print up the #JustiseBetter t-shirts for the Heat’s Kids but are too cheap to pay for our logos, who have a furnace full of scorching takes that change with one bad Dolphins quarter, who actually know someone in the Marlins’ lineup, who still believe the Panthers are OK if they have games in hand, who proudly declare that the Canes are back when they beat Savannah State. We’re the ones who host watch parties, and never see a win. We’re 0-9-1, and that one is because we don’t really care that much about Real Madrid or FC Barcelona. Except the Cinco Razones trio. But I never understand what they’re saying.

And you needed us, kind of. You didn’t always, but you do now. The national outlets got too big to care about Miami sports, especially after the Big Three broke up. The local outlets got too small, smaller and smaller each year, smaller and smaller-minded at once, small as they may be. So they talk at you, not with you. They don’t ask your opinion. They ask for monthly subscriptions.

We just ask that you meet us.

All 50-plus of us.

We’re a football team, with the same number of playoff wins as the Dolphins for the past 19 years, but weaker ankles.

You can find all of us (young, old, men, women, white, black, Latino and of course an Anime lover, which proves we don’t discrimate) on the Who We Are page; we probably missed someone, but that’s part of the point. We could have put your photo there instead, especially instead of Tito’s, since we have no clue what he does here. You helped us build this from the single Five Reasons flagship podcast to 15 (16 soon) in less than a year.

You helped us get just one of our 60-plus Twitter accounts to nearly 10 million tweet impressions per month. You made us (well, at least me, but I dragged along the others) believe that this is not only a sustainable enterprise, but can be the top source of sports in South Florida (sorry, Lebby and Stu, we admire you and all but that ain’t your thing anymore).

And that, eventually we can expand to other markets, maybe first just by trekking up the Turnpike.

But for now?

We’re by Miami, for Miami — except for the curmudgeon in London with the funny accent, who somehow knows every long snapper the Dolphins are targeting in the draft. (I was right about Gase, Simon. You lovable wanker knob, you. I doing that right?).

We’re Dade, we’re Broward and we’re about to a be a little more Palm Beach.

We’re Sports on Your Schedule.

We’re Miami Sports on Demand.

We’re Small as We May Be — and proud of it.

(See the t-shirts. Note the logo and color scheme. Be careful with your interoffice e-mails.)

We’re a bunch of blissful idiots who should all be doing something meaningful with our lives, but instead we obsess about Vice color schemes and Erik Spoelstra’s early fourth quarter rotations and whether Ryan Fitzpatrick is too good and whether David Beckham will ultimately be housing his little soccer side in Wittyngham’s carefully-coiffed hair.

Nice to meet you.

All of you.

Well, some of you.

We hope a few of you will say the same to us, so long as we’re here.

Which, sorry to say, should be a while.

 

Ethan J. Skolnick can be found at @ethanjskolnick but mostly at @5ReasonsSports, all day and night long. 

Passing the Torch: Dwyane Wade’s Impact on Justise Winslow

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It’s March 8th, and the first quarter of an oddly entertaining game between the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers is about to end. 

Hassan Whiteside collects an errant ball and flips ahead to Miami’s young chameleon, Justise Winslow. Winslow takes off down the middle of the floor. One bounce. Two. Three.  He accelerates after the second bounce, and begins his gather from just inside the dotted line after the third. David Nwaba tries to offer some resistance, but Winslow absorbs the bump, contorts his body, and flips the ball off the glass while falling out of bounds. 

Fast forward to the end of the third quarter. This time, Dwyane Wade catches an outlet pass before taking the bump and adding two on the scoreboard. 

The similarities are just as evident as the differences. Both guys lick their chops at the one-on-one coverage they see on the fast break. They both finish through contact while fading away from the hoop. But while the result is the same, the journey is different.

Winslow looks a bit out of sorts for most of the possession. He has to tip the ball to himself before he begins his trek. Two casual strides are followed by a quick pitter-pat on his gather. The shot is made, but his body pays a small price in the process. 

Compare that to Wade, who catches it cleanly. He gets to the rim in two dribbles instead of three. His strides are even. There is no change in speed never. Nik Stauskas’ failed strip doesn’t deter Wade, and he’s able to land cleanly after the shot.

Those are random plays from an early March game, but it’s that juxtaposition that makes their relationship so important.

It took nearly four years for Winslow to find himself. The team and expectations changed around him. He’s dealt with injuries; he’s also battled depression. But as he’s grown more comfortable off the court, Winslow has come into his own as a player.

Winslow is the midst of a breakout season. He’s averaging career-highs in points (12.7), rebounds (5.4), assists (4.3). The three-ball has become a legitimate weapon for Winslow (38 percent on 3.8 attempts), a necessary complement to the drive-and-kick skills with which he entered the league. His archetype — a playmaking wing with three-point chops — is equal parts impressive and rare, and that’s before you add in his versatility on the other end. 

The baseline for Winslow as an impact player is there. He can put pressure on the rim, and he has the passing ability to beat rotating defenses. Off the ball, he’s a reliable spot-up shooter that teams can’t ignore anymore. The next step for Winslow is refinement in the middle; who better to provide that insight than Wade? 

To Winslow’s credit, he’s made a point to seek out Wade. “Justise picks my brain all the time,” Wade told Five Reasons Sports after a shoot-around in Charlotte. “He’s definitely taken some of the things I’ve done. You’ll see some things he does on the court that reminds me of myself.”

Sometimes it’s a flash (sorry), like this bucket you’ve seen Wade make a thousand times:

 

 

Winslow has also picked up more subtle pieces of Wade’s game, especially in pick-and-roll situations. The biggest thing he’s taken from Wade: taking his time.

“Pace, slowing down, not being in a hurry,” Winslow told Five Reasons Sports. “Just making the right reads and knowing what to read. You’re not so much looking at your defender, you’re looking at stuff behind and how guys are playing it. He [Wade] is one of the best pick-and-roll ball handlers of all-time. Just watching him going through his progressions, the pace at which he plays with. It’s not always slow, it’s not always fast. He uses change-of-pace extremely well to get what he wants.”

Teams don’t duck under picks as aggressively as they used to against Winslow. He’s become a confident enough shooter to set his feet and fire if teams give him space. More often than not, teams force him downhill — and that spells trouble for defenses. He’s improved enough as a finisher — he’s converting a career-high 59.0 percent of his shots at the rim — to beat one-on-one coverage. The passing has always been there.

 

 

Winslow has racked up 144 Moreyball assists — assists on shots at the rim or corner threes — this season, per PBP Stats. That’s only 12 short of Wade and Josh Richardson’s marks (156) despite appearing in five and 11 fewer games, respectively. That mark speaks to Winslow’s vision and newfound patience in the half court. Wade’s mark being that high despite his age points to his underrated wisdom.

“His ability to pass is amazing, too,” Winslow says. “He’s one of the best passers, I think, the game has ever seen. I think he’s underrated when it comes to his passing. Just all the dynamics of that. His toughness, ability to finish at the rim through contact, but his ability to make players better is something I really try to incorporate in my game.”

The last piece of the pick-and-roll puzzle for Winslow is the in-between game. It’s something Wade mastered at a young age, but a skill-set Winslow is pretty raw at. He has started taking more pull-up middies, and his form is surprisingly fluid.

That will take time. But even without it, Winslow has raised his ceiling as a player this season. His contract, a three-year $39 million deal with a team option on the last year, already looks like one of the league’s best bargains. If he does turn into a three-level scorer, he would, at the very least, cement himself as the player best equipped to take the mantle from Wade as the team’s next face. From an intangible standpoint, he may already be.

Both Wade and Udonis Haslem have alluded to Winslow having the mental makeup to embrace that responsibility. Winslow himself has acknowledged he wants to be that guy. For now, though, he’s happy absorbing as much knowledge from Wade as he can. 

 

Nekias Duncan (@NekiasNBA) is a speaking and writing contributor to Miami Heat Beat on Five Reasons Sports Network, among several other entities.

So, the Avengers Endgame is Bleeping Obvious, Right?

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Editor’s note: We’re not just sports here. Our hosts from Ballcast and Light Skinned Opinions and others will be posting Voice pieces on everything from culture to food to politics. Reader discretion advised…..  

 

The internet. This place where we pretend we come to to get sports scores but really just use to masturbate with is, by all accounts, mostly a hellscape of terrible memes, bad LeBron takes, Donald Trump Did a Racist Thing Again news, and Twitter. Sometimes — not often — but sometimes, however, the Internet can be a glorious place where the free exchange of ideas and perspective helps mankind shake its ever-thickening abeyant malaise to get back to the goal of achieving the heights of what Epictetus called “making the best use of what’s in our power” as a species.

And with the Avengers: Endgame theory that Ant-Man should totally kill Thanos by flying up into his ass and then growing giant, we’ve done just that.

This theory was posited a little over five months ago on Reddit then expanded on Twitter by @filmgloss, and it damn well needs to be the way Avengers: Endgame (in theaters April 26) ends or so help me I will protest by walking into the lobby of my movie theater, taking off my shoes, and dipping my feet in the slushie machine.

The idea is simple. The 285 or so Marvel movies that have come out have shown us that Scott Lang (aka Ant-Man) can shrink himself down to microscopic quantum levels. He can also grow into a 60-foot giant (he also happened to survive The Snap, if that means anything). We’ve seen him shrink down to get himself out of a pickle before. In Captain America: Civil War and in Ant-Man and the Wasp, we saw him grow giant and fuck some shit up Godzilla-style. So, with this information in mind, the theory posits that Ant-Man would simply shrink down small enough to enter Thanos’ asshole then, once deep inside the Titan’s dark mauve rectum, grow into a giant.

Boom, Thanos explodes via his shithole, he is dead, roll credits, onto the next 271 Marvel movies.

One can argue that the two most frustrating parts about Avengers: Infinity War were the times the heroes blew their shot at taking Thanos out. The first and most egregious fuck up was when Peter Quill (aka Star Lord) threw a giant hissy when he found out Gamora was dead and ruined the team’s best chance at bodying that purple sociopath once and for all. Then there was Thor’s pissing in the punchbowl when he failed to strike Thanos in the head with his hammer. Thanos even told Thor he should have gone for the head when he said — and this is a direct quote — “You should have gone for the head.”

Good grief, Thor. What the hell good is having the power to wield Mjolnir* if you’re not going to smash people in the face with it? Nordic God of Thunder my dick.

Anyway, this places us firmly in film symmetry-land. The place where movies circle back to an original point that ties shit together. So, instead of the obvious “going for the head” move, this time the Avengers need to go for the ass. Literally.

It would be epically glorious, and a befitting way for such a monster of a movie villain to go out. The dude snapped half the universe out of existence with his Michael Jackson glove. If this were real life, he would be considered a war criminal on par with despots like Adolf Hitler and Muammar Gaddafi (who, if reports are to be believed, happened to meet his own demise via the butt in a most heinous manner. Google it!). The punishment should fit the crime, is all I’m saying.

It would also be placed right up there with the greatest movie deaths of all time.

Hans Gruber falling off the skyscraper in Die Hard.

Sonny getting shot up in the causeway in The Godfather.

Samuel L. Jackson in Deep Blue Sea.

The Nazis face melting at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Colonel Kurtz getting hacked to death in Apocalypse Now.

James Cagney yelling “Top o’ the world, Ma!” at the end of White Heat.

The guy that blows up like a balloon and explodes in Big Trouble In Little China.

The guy that blows up like a balloon and explodes at the end of Live And Let Die.

HAL singing “Daisy” in 2001: A Space Odyssey.

This guy:

And, now, Thanos getting his ass blown the fuck up in Avengers: Endgame.

This needs to happen. I’m sorry. There simply is no way I’m going to sit in the theater for 4 god damn hours only to watch Thanos be defeated by the Avengers Working Out Their Differences And Using Their Powers In Unison Because, TEAMWORK!

Fuck that.

Anything less than having Ant-Man crawling into this giant purple dick’s anus and then blowing him up into ash is going to be the biggest cinematic letdown since George Lucas introduced us to Darth Vader as a little kid who screams out shit like, “Now THIS is pod racing!”

Alas, it probably won’t go down that way. Because everyone hates fun.

Just like the Internet, Hollywood can suck sometimes.

*Yes I know Thor uses Stormbreaker in that scene but Mjolnir makes for a better joke calm down, nerds.

 

Chris Joseph (@ByChrisJoseph) is a host of Ballscast, and has written for Deadspin, Miami New Times, CBS Sports, and several other outlets. 

Music Video: Justise Better

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Our music video featuring our hit song ‘Justise Better,’ a parody of Post Malone’s ‘Better Now.’ The song is preformed and edited by John Kozan (@BrassJazz) and co-written by him and Greg ‘Leif’ Sylvander. Winslow appeared to enjoy it when we played it for him in New York.

The Fish Tank on VH1’s Love and Hip Hop Miami

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Miami legend Trick Daddy stopped by The Fish Tank with OJ and Seth. Cameras from Love and Hip Hop Miami were there to capture the taping and this clip ran on VH1.