5 Draft Day Trades for your Miami Dolphins

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We’re getting closer.

Now it’s less than 10 days until the 2019 NFL Draft, and there’s still considerable smoke about what the Miami Dolphins might do. They could stay put with all their current picks, of course, though that doesn’t seem likely with Chris Grier’s history. The man likes to move.

Here are a few of the countless options….

 

THE REALISTIC

Miami Dolphins trade pick #13 to the NY Giants for pick #17 and #37.

Why would Miami do this: It’s 4 spots. The rebuild at hand is bigger than giving up 4 spots, and you do add another top 50 pick. Easy deal to take.

Why would NY Giants do this: Dave Gettleman better add talent in bunches, and the possibility of Dwayne Haskins dropping to #13 is tempting for him (or Daniel Jones). This way, the Giants take a top prospect at #6, and double back into the top 15 for a player of opportunity. The premium is modest. One mid 1st rounder, and a 2nd rounder. Good deal.

 

TEXANS TAKE THEIR SHOT

Miami Dolphins trade pick #13 to the Houston Texans for pick #23 and a 2020 1st Rd. pick.

Why would Miami do this: Moving down 10 spots while adding a 1st rounder for 2020 to move you closer to your franchise QB is a good deal.

Why would Houston do this: The AFC is there for the taking, and the Texans are a contender. The rumors are that they are hot after a lock down corner, and the best man corner in the draft is Greedy Williams. If he is there, it’s tempting for the Texans to make this deal, fix a deficiency, and punt on their pick in 2020, to make a run NOW.

 

BIG BEN SPECIAL

Miami Dolphins trade pick #13 to the Pittsburgh Steelers for pick #20, pick #52, pick #122.

Why would Miami do this: The board re-arranges for you, your “must take” players are gone and you need players. You get 3 picks for 1. Math.

Why would Pittsburgh do this: Hakeem Butler could be a generational WR talent, and #13 is a sweet spot to guarantee you land him, you would probably have your choice of skill player at that spot as well. The Steelers lost Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell, and the #13 pick is a big boost to replacing some of the skill talent you lost.

 

THE PIPE DREAM

Miami Dolphins trade pick #13, pick #48, a 2020 1st Rd. pick, a 2020 3rd Rd. pick to the Arizona Cardinals for the 1st overall pick (Kyler Murray).

Why would Miami do this: He’s your QB. One of the best QB prospects to come around in a long while. Your long local nightmare at the position would be over.

Why would Arizona do this: Your (hypothetical) all-offseason bluff finally blew up in your face, and you value this pick haul over just taking Nick Bosa at #1.

 

THE TANK MOVE

Miami Dolphins trade pick #48, Kenny Stills and Xavien Howard to the Kansas City Chiefs for #29, a 2020 1st Rd. Pick, and a 2020 2nd Rd. pick.

Why would Miami do this: You move up with an additional 2019 1st rounder, and add considerable ammo for a 2020 run at a QB in the 1st round.

Why would Kansas City do this: The Super Bowl. Tyreek Hill’s “offseason issues”. They have an extra 2020 2nd round pick gained from the Dee Ford trade. The time is now for the Chiefs, an Xavien Howard would be an invaluable piece, and Kenny Stills is insurance for the possible loss of Tyreek Hill.

 

Alfredo Arteaga trades up — and down — every week to work with Simon and CK on Three Yards Per Carry. We just won’t say which is which.

Does Marlins rookie Nick Anderson hurt Craig Kimbrel’s case?

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One of the hardest things to do in baseball is price yourself out of the market.

Sure, it seemed like a lot of top free agents managed to pull that off but there always one franchise with the Cold Stone “gotta have it” mentality that eventually caves in. It took all winter but eventually they always get their money.

Except Craig Kimbrel.

Kimberly posted a 2.74 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP, 96 strikeouts and 31 walks over 62 1/3 innings for the World Series winning Boston Red Sox last season and still doesn’t have a new team. Somehow he and starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel were the only ones to price themselves out.

The Marlins traded Brian Schales to the Twins for Nick Anderson.

There’s indeed a premium on closers. Over the offseason, Zach Britton signed with the New York Yankees for three years, $39M and David Robertson signed with the Phillies for two years, $23M. A year before that, Wade Davis went to Colorado for three years, $52M.

Kimbrel reportedly wanted five years and $100M. According to Ken Rosenthal, those demands have been lowered to figures similar to the aforementioned relievers. 

However, does the scorching start of Miami Marlins pitcher Nick Anderson hurt his case?

Anderson was acquired in a subtle offseason trade by the Marlins for a Double-A infielder. In his fist eight games, he has allowed only one earned run and an astounding 16 strikeouts in only 7.2 innings pitched. His MLB debut came on Opening Day, where he showed up to get a random Rockies batter out. Since then, he made seven consecutive relief appearances in which he struck out multiple batters, which is a franchise record.

To take minimal means to acquire this sort of production must hurt the high contract cause of Kimbrel. The Marlins took advantage of another team’s roster crunch and struck gold. The last time they saw this kind of production from a reliever was Kyle Barraclough in 2016, striking out 88 batters in 60 innings. Anderson had that season in Triple-A Rochester last year and manager Don Mattingly said that’s what caught the eye of his analytics team.

Anderson is on pace for 152 strikeouts in 67.2 innings in his rookie season. 28 years old might be an old age to finally break into the big leagues but Mattingly said on Sunday that sometimes that the perfect age for a pitcher to break out, especially in the bullpen.

“I think there’s a number of guys like that out there that you see that started out as starters and as time goes they refined their mix or however they use their pitches,” Mattingly said. “It seems like that’s that age where you get some six-year guys like that, that are still power stuff, and just end up in roster situations with other teams.”

However, there is a concern with relief usage. Mattingly intimated that there are times that a reliever on a good season can come at the price of a high usage rate and that could lead to a poor season the next year.    

“Bullpens are always one of those situations where you’re kinda riding what’s going on,” Mattingly said. “It’s hard to judge year to year.”

The Marlins has managed to put a good bullpen together with the additions of Anderson, Tyler Kinley, who is also a 28-year-old rookie, and Austin Brice. They replaced Nick Wittgren, Barraclough and Brad Ziegler, who were solid in their own right but not in a way that totally stood out.

Before Barraclough was Steve Cishek, who was super solid during his first four seasons with the Marlins (2011-2014) before the two were swapped for each other in St. Louis in 2015. Miami didn’t miss a beat with that trade.

The Marlins went into spring training not being able to figure out who their closer will be. They signed Sergio Romo to a one-year deal and entrusted him with the ninth inning a few times, along with Adam Conley and Drew Steckenrider, two sides of the same coin. At some point, Anderson will get into save situations and further add to his value.

The idea that a team like the Marlins can unearth top notch relief pitching on the cheap thanks to shrewd scouting and analytics would most certainly be used against Kimbrel’s case of a long term, $100M contract. Eventually, some team will sign him to a deal similar to previous elite closers at some point in the season but a major deal for that position may never come to fruition.

Tony Capobianco is the lead photographer for FiveReasonsSports.com

Pat Riley’s Mistakes and His New Vow

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“We are going to figure it out. Whether you believe me or not.”

The once infallible Godfather, Pat Riley, has legitimate doubters.

The post-Chris-Bosh-blood-clot Miami Heat have a 124-122 record and a +1.1 net rating in their last three seasons. Mediocre, mundane and static. So on Saturday afternoon for what felt like the first time in half a decade, Riley was self reflective and candid about his mistakes.

He finally identified there was a problem and he needed to fix it.

“This team did not come together like I thought it would,” Riley said to a audience of reporters.

He believed they could be as high as a four seed in the Eastern Conference

“I’m disappointed in myself.”

His missteps since 30-11 are well documented but for the first time there appears to be a plan and public agency. No one in sports has eternal goodwill, no matter how many parades they bring. And, as the noise of bloated contracts and players got louder and louder with only one playoff win, the genuflecting at the altar of Riley seems over.

People want answers.  

“I have some big picture ideas already written down,” Riley said, alluding to his plan of going to Malibu with a horde of notebooks. “(GM) Andy and I will decide whether they’re worth chasing or not. There will be some change next year.”

Change is all the fan-base can hope for because, finally, it feels like Miami has a young core to build around. Justise Winslow has had a breakout season and wants to be a leader for the Heat, Bam Adebayo is looking like the perfect rim rolling, switching, passing center that any team would want and Josh Richardson is the essential three and D player every elite team has in its lineup or rotation.

Their base is established and even Riley acknowledged it. What they need now are stars. The Heat are in cap hell, but a few things could break their way to suddenly become players in a loaded Free Agency class this summer.

Hassan Whiteside ($27 million) and Goran Dragic ($19 million) could opt out of their respective player options this summer creating only $15 million in cap space. The Heat owe $140 in salary for the 2019-2020 season and they will need creative accounting to make a max slot for the likes of Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard or even Kevin Durant.

Ryan Anderson and his $21 million could be waived and stretched to give the Heat an extra $10 million in cap space or with a first round pick could be moved, giving Miami enough for a single max slot. Other options would be sending first round picks packaged with two of Dion Waiters, James Johnson or Kelly Olynyk (please don’t be Kelly Pat) in addition to the waiving and stretching of Anderson. For a veteran of seven to nine years a max contract is close to $33 million.

It’s a lot to do and the situation to even create one is bleak and most probably, not likely. But Riley’s words, “we are going to figure it out. Whether you believe me or not,” sounded louder than anything this weekend. The earned mythology of “Closer” and “Godfather” is running on fumes as fans get impatient. Another year of a .500 basketball and a neutral net rating isn’t good enough and there will be no #OneLastDance next season to soften the noise of an exasperated fan base.   

Riley understands he needs stars, he understands that he greatly mis-evaluated what this team was and he finally said it. With Riley the public acceptance is usually the first step, it was with Dwyane Wade and his return home and if history is any indicator, it will repeat itself here.

It’s an uphill battle to be players in this free agency period, but Miami will have tools to get there, as long of a shot as that is. It will take the moving of deals and reshuffling of assets to make this work, but Riley appears to be confident. He scoffed at the idea that “that we can’t get out of certain contracts.”

“We have done this since 1995,” Riley said. “I don’t want to sit here for 30 minutes and give you a litany of the transactions.”

Nor need he. He just needs to make another somehow. Riley is well aware of his critics and detractors. He knows he has done it before, but maybe for the first time in his Miami tenure the belief in him is minimal.

“We are going to figure it out. Whether you believe me or not.”

Those are the words that will echo into one of Miami’s most important off-seasons in some time. There are no dances left to be danced and no more diversions from the reality of their mediocrity. The infallible Godfather once again has to create a miracle, only this time to correct his unexpected, uncharacteristic errors.

 

Giancarlo Navas (@GNavas103), the host of Miami Heat Beat, may have cried a few hundred times during #OneLastDance.

Russell Wilson? Do whatever it takes, Dolphins

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Many years ago when Bret Bielema was interviewing for the vacant Miami Dolphins head coaching position, he came with a well devised plan.

At the time, Bielema was the head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers. And his plan was carefully constructed around the idea that the Dolphins would draft Russell Wilson in the 2012 NFL Draft. He believed Wilson had the potential to be one of the NFL’s ‘elite’ and surprise, surprise, that’s exactly what he’s become.

Obviously Ross went with Joe Philbin, and the team eventually wasted a first-round pick and seven years on Ryan Tannehill. But to believe Stephen Ross isn’t filled with deep regret over his decision would be mistaken.  After all, while the Dolphins were wasting nearly a decade on Tannehill and cycling through one head coach after another. The Seattle Seahawks were winning football games. Consistently. Plus a Super Bowl. Nearly two.

Sure, some of the credit must go to the Legion of Boom, who helped bring relevance back to the Seahawks.  But the one consistent player that Pete Carroll has had for a majority of his eight year tenure in Seattle is Wilson.

Wilson, 30, has thrown for 25,624 yards, 196 touchdowns, and 63 interceptions. His career 75-36-1 record is extremely impressive when compared to the current group of quarterbacks.  Furthermore, his skill-set is something very few in the league possess.  Wilson’s escapability, pocket awareness, and accuracy remain among the NFL’s elite.  Time and again, Wilson will make plays that leave most with their jaw on the floor.  He is elite, in a group that consists of only a few.

So why is the internet torn on whether or not it would be in Miami’s best interest to trade for the 30-year old quarterback?

Compensation

Unlike the NFL Draft, there is no trade chart to determine the value of a franchise caliber quarterback.  What we do know however, is that any trade involving Wilson would likely involve multiple first-round draft picks.  Yesterday, I proposed a trade on Twitter that included two first-round draft picks and Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. Now obviously, it would be in Miami’s best interest to keep the 25-year old shutdown corner. But if Seattle is going to move their franchise quarterback, it would need an offer it simply can not refuse.  Two first-round draft picks and one of the NFL’s top-5 defensive backs could get the job done.

Salary

Some believe you shouldn’t trade for a quarterback when, by most accounts, that team is rebuilding.  And by trading for Wilson, the Dolphins are then forced to make him the highest paid player in NFL history.  This may not be as big of a problem as some may believe, given that Miami currently has $120+ million of cap space in 2020.  As we are starting to see around the league, paying a quarterback can sometimes cripple the salary cap.  So yes, I understand why some might be hesitant. But if a player of Russell Wilson’s caliber ever becomes available on the open market-via trade or free agency- you do everything in your power to land the whale.

Conclusion

Whether or not the Seahawks and Wilson agree to a new deal, has yet to be determined.  But in today’s NFL, there are only so many ‘elite’ quarterbacks. If one of those proven commodities becomes available on the open market, you do whatever it takes to land that generational talent.  Wilson may not check all of Bill Parcells’ quarterback commandments but that’s okay.  That got us Chad Henne. All Wilson has done over the last seven years is win, at times with less.  If Seattle would be foolish enough to put him on the trade block, interest would be like nothing we’ve ever seen.  To have a quarterback, at the peak of his prime, become available is unheard of. The Dolphins haven’t had one since Dan Marino in the 1980s. As you well know.

Ultimately, I don’t think Seattle would let the greatest player in franchise history play anywhere else.  But if he is available, Chris Grier and Ross better be the first on the phone.  What a trade of this magnitude would do to the fanbase and more so, Ross’ wallet.  Wilson’s jersey will be the #1 selling jersey over the next decade.  There would never be another empty seat at Hard Rock — well, at least, not as many.  Wilson would put an end to the drought that started the day Dan Marino retired.  Most importantly, however, the Dolphins would finally have a winning football team.

Do whatever it takes, to get Russell Wilson to Miami.

 

Josh Houtz (@Houtz) is a diehard Dolphins fan…. and a bit of a dreamer. For a look at how the Dolphins are doing at tanking (not well), check out Chris Kouffman’s piece HERE. 

The Miami Dolphins Are Terrible at This

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Amid the media- and fan-driven frenzy about ‘tanking’ I wonder if anyone has stopped to ponder the following question:

What if the Miami Dolphins are as bad at earning the 1st pick as they were trying to earn the 32nd pick?

They’re not off to a great start.

Right away, the Dolphins botched it by dismissing a wild-eyed, dysfunctional head coach who refused to modify his system to fit the personnel, had begun to blatantly point fingers, and explicitly sheltered under the sort of derelict excuses that would see a player excised from winning franchises.

And for an added twist of the knife, Miami made the mistake of allowing that sort of valuable agent of chaos escape to a division rival, where he is already doing work for the New York Jets.

The Dolphins only made things worse by screwing up their search for a replacement.

They could have taken the advice of several players who took to Twitter to argue on behalf of Darren Rizzi, a special teams coach who learned how to lose under a solid set of proven’s like Greg Schiano, Joe Philbin, and Adam Gase. Coach Rizzi had once been forced to step down as head coach of Rhode Island after achieving a 3-9 record in his first and only year coaching the Rams. He would have been a promising choice.

Miami even pulled some strings to score an interview with a ‘ringer’ like Dennis Allen, who sported an 8-28 record in his previous NFL head coaching stint! The Dolphins walked out of that meeting without getting Allen under contract.

Instead, they hired a coach who spent 15 years working at every level of the most impressive dynasty in NFL history. And they did it fresh off his calling, perhaps, the most impressive defensive performance in Super Bowl history. Awful.

Miami were forced to watch with dismay as Brian Flores did what previous New England spin-offs had failed: he brought a significant portion of New England’s staff with him, assembling a cabal of assistants that sport more hardware than Home Depot.

Dolphins fans, no strangers to the exercise of hope-trafficking, have largely taken solace in two ideas.

The first is the perception that even a successful set of coaches requires a period of creative destruction; taking a step backward in order to leap forward. Unfortunately, there is a consistent history of new head coach hires improving their team’s win total in their first year. Yuck.

Over the last 30 years of NFL history, there have been 194 head coach hires, with 142 of them taking over losing teams. On average, the new head coaches achieved +1.5 more wins than their predecessors. For the teams that started out with losing records, the head coach change was worth an average improvement +2.4 wins.

In fact, of the 45 teams with a new coach taking over a 6- or 7-win roster, only 10 achieved records of 4-12 or worse the next year. Their records averaged somewhere between 7-9 and 8-8.

But there’s always the second source of hope for Miami fans: the near-universal perception of a talent-less roster. So bad is this Dolphins roster that, according to Odds Shark, oddsmakers have given Miami sole possession of the lowest win total prediction in the NFL landscape (5.0 wins).

Of course, the bad news is that, according to data compiled from Sports Odds History, over the last 30 seasons of NFL history, the teams with the lowest sportsbook win total in any given year have only ended up with the 1st pick in the NFL Draft three times.

Cross-reference the two and you have 20 teams over the last 30 years who hired a new coach to take over a roster projected by Las Vegas to be the worst (or tied for the worst) in the NFL. Their average record the following year? About 6-10.

Granted, the perception of Miami’s roster as talent-less is a bit curious. You don’t typically see teams that won six or more games projected to have the worst record in the NFL the following year. It’s only happened twice before.

The 1996 Carolina Panthers responded to odds makers’ doubts by going 12-4 and playing in the NFC Championship Game. The 2018 Buffalo Bills went 6-10 and will pick 9th in the upcoming draft, despite having started a particularly raw rookie quarterback all year.

This is not particularly comforting, for fans of Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins continue to bungle the roster effort. They haven’t emptied the roster, traded their best players, or insured themselves against the progression of promising young players. They don’t have a depth chart stacked with older, high-risk assets.

Most people seem to think roster talent goes up and down every year because of the players coming in or going out during the off season. That’s not really true. The balance between the progression of young players, the attrition of old players, and the regression of inconsistent players plays a much larger role in year-to-year changes to the roster’s talent level.

It’s not all about the incremental loss of veterans like Cameron Wake or Ja’Wuan James. In 2016, the Dolphins lost Olivier Vernon, Lamar Miller, and Charles Clay via free agency. Fans and media declared the roster talent-less, only to see improvement from 6-10 to 10-6.

For the first time in years, the roster is infested at nearly every position with young and promising players that threaten to take the next step. Laremy Tunsil, Jesse Davis, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson, Kenyan Drake, Kalen Ballage, Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor, Jonathan Woodard, Raekwon McMillan, Jerome Baker, Xavien Howard, and Minkah Fitzpatrick have all made positive impressions. Yes, even Mike Gesicki.

Frankly, there are not enough players like Charles Harris in that group, sporting a problematic mix of high expectations and bad tape.

Also for the first time in years, the team doesn’t have a significant amount of expectations tied up in a handful of veterans who pose significant age or injury risk. Unstable assets like Reshad Jones (age, injury), Ryan Fitzpatrick (age), and Albert Wilson (injury) are less common on this roster, and their 2018 comps are easier. Jones already played unevenly last year during the 7-win season, it wouldn’t be terribly difficult for Fitzpatrick to out-perform what Tannehill and Osweiler provided a year ago, and Albert Wilson played less than half a season in 2018.

The team doesn’t have much time left this off season to get back on course. They still have an entire NFL Draft full of talented players to navigate. The way this front office and coaching staff have been operating, they shouldn’t be trusted to make it through the weekend without getting at least a little bit better.

What a bunch of bad losers.

 

Chris Kouffman (@CKParrot) is a host of Three Yards of Carry, on which he doesn’t lose an argument, unless he’s trying to. Dolphins fans, also check out the latest COLUMN from Josh Houtz on whether Miami should target Russell Wilson.

Something needs to be done about Wei-Yin Chen

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The very fact that the Atlanta Braves recently signed All-Star second baseman Ozzie Albies to a seven-year extension and it’s for less money than what the Miami Marlins are paying Wei-Yin Chen over the next two years is absolutely absurd.

The Marlins entered Spring Training with the presumption that Jose Urena, Dan Straily and Chen would take the top three spots of the starting rotation. By the end, they made the wise decision to hand the rotation to their young rising stars. Urena opened the season and Straily was released but the same could not yet be done to Chen.

In 2016, the Marlins, under previous ownership, signed Chen to a five-year, $80 million contract to pair him with the late Jose Fernandez for a possible playoff run. The team still owes him $20 million this season and $22 next season. The money is guaranteed so there is an understandable urgency to get some value out of him.

They moved Chen in the bullpen but he has yet to have so much as a single positive outing. He has an ERA of 24.75 in four innings over three appearances. His first appearance ended without a single recorded out. He gave up a walk and a hit on the only two batters he faced and was given the hook in favor of Sergio Romo coming in to save Miami’s 3-0 win over Colorado on March 31. His best outing was when he gave up a run in two innings at home against the Mets on April 2. His worst was his most recent outing where he gave up 10 runs in two innings against the last place Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday.  

Marlins manager Don Mattingly has exercised patience towards Chen and defended him at every turn this season. Before the 1-5 road trip, he said,  “There’s going to be a lot of important outs he is going to have to get.”

“We have to be able to use him,” Mattingly said on March 31. “If not, it’s going to put stress and wear and tear on everyone else. He’s going to be fine.”

In Cincinnati, after Chen turned into a batting practice pitcher, he basically said that it’s been a hard position for him to adjust to after spending the last seven years as a starting pitcher.

“I expect him to be better than that, but sometimes it’s not quite fair for him the way we’ve used him,” Mattingly said on April 9. “He’s sitting a lot, doesn’t know exactly when he’s going to pitch and it’s just not the role I think he’s accustomed to, but I do think eventually he’s going to get better.”

One solution to that problem would be to schedule his appearances. That way there would be no surprises and he would likely be more prepared going into them, especially when they’re at home, where he had a 1.62 ERA in 13 starts last year. But as Mattingly said before Friday’s 9-1 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, that’s not part of the plan.

“No, can’t do that,” Mattingly said. “I’d like to say we could but we can’t schedule.”

One other available option would be to make Chen the opener. The Tampa Bay Rays invented that strategy with Romo last season and the Okland Athletics adopted it during the Wild Card game against the New York Yankees. Chen could start the first two inning, and pass it off to a starter for the next five, leaving the final two innings to the bullpen.

That plan was originally brought up as early as the beginning of Spring Training but has not yet been taken in consideration since. Main reason why is because unlike the Rays and A’s, there doesn’t seem to be a spot for that.

“We’ve talked about it being in consideration but I don’t know who we would do that for, as far as our starters, ” Mattingly said. “They’ve all actually thrown the ball pretty well.”

The opener would indeed stunt the growth of any of the four young starters the Marlins are trying to groom into aces. However if it would happen on this team, it would either occur after an injury to one of the starting pitchers or be done during a Jose Urena start, should his struggles continue.

For now the role for Chen going forward looks to be that of a long reliever in low leverage situations. Regardless, it can’t be worst than what has already transpired.

Tony Capobianco is the lead photographer for FiveReasonsSports.com

Peter O’Brien: Swing and a Mish, but it’s not his fault

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By: Craig Mish

One week before Opening Day, Peter O’Brien’s face covered the parking garages of Marlins Park. Less than a month into the season, O’Brien is driving out of those garages looking for a new team.

I’m sure when the Marlins originally called up O’Brien in September 2018, the Hialeah-native had to be pinching himself. If you don’t know the background, he spent 7 seasons shuffling between a half a dozen organizations. O’Brien’s impressive list of farm systems includes: Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Royals, Reds, and Dodgers. All of the organizations had the same problem with him, he didn’t hit.

-0.2 War 10 career Home Runs 58 G 54 K

So, when the Marlins acquired him from the Dodgers in a 2018 trade (for Cash), and called him up in September, it was a great story. O’Brien is of Cuban-American descent and played college baseball at the University of Miami. He had a decent cup of cafecito with the big league club hitting 4 September home runs, in 66 plate appearances. Most baseball executives will tell you that the hardest month to judge a player is September. So, take those stats with a grain of salt.  Most baseball fans knows this. In fact, after several organizations dismissed O’Brien’s skills, one would have to think some caution would be used with his Major League ability. There was a 7-year sample size.

7 years wasn’t enough for the Marlins. They used the Ryan Tannehill ‘what about year 8’ plan.

The off-season proved to be impressive for the Marlins off the field. They seemed to hit on virtually everything. The Home Run eyesore, excuse me, sculpture, was eliminated.  The team re-branded the logo and created significant improvements both inside Marlins Park and with their community work. On that front, most lauded the team’s efforts and faith is slowly but surely being renewed. On the baseball side, however, the team built up O’Brien like he was the next Paul Bunyan.  

In fact, while so many veteran Free Agents were struggling for work, the Marlins were busy anointing O’Brien their starting Right Fielder. Once the decision was made to move Brian Anderson to Third Base full time, O’Brien was THE guy. He was part of the franchise’s #OurColores campaign, did several appearances for the team including a Golf event, and was even the player chosen to appear on WPLG-TV’s Sports Sunday. You see, O’Brien has power, and what the Marlins missed in Justin Bour, they would have in O’Brien, if not more — or so they thought.

The fantasy continued into Spring Training. O’Brien struggled to make contact, and basically spent the first two weeks doing what he has done throughout his career. After 2 weeks, he looked just like the guy 6 other organizations had given up on. The Marlins, however, maintained that his approach was sound. I, personally, was told that he was doing things people don’t see on the backfields. The Marlins were happy with him.

Fair enough.

As Spring camp came to its close, all of a sudden, it became very apparent that at the very least O’Brien was being pushed by Garrett Cooper, who made good contact all spring and boasted a .400 batting average. Cooper made more progress than the team had expected coming off a wrist injury, and had made a solid impression.

On Saturday March 23rd, O’Brien was in the Marlins starting lineup in their spring game.  Then, suddenly, he wasn’t. A meeting of the Marlins’ minds determined O’Brien would be sent to Triple-A and it would be Cooper in Right for Opening Day. O’Brien packed his stuff, walked over to the Minor League Clubhouse and prepared to don a Baby Cakes jersey.

How did this happen?  Better yet, why did this happen?  How could the organization, and in this case, the new regime, miscalculate a player so poorly?  

Fortunately, Cooper proved to be a solid backup plan, masking the mistake made with O’Brien.

Then, Cooper got hurt.

Since O’Brien’s recall, he’s been completely over-matched. He stuck out in about 50-percent of his at-bats. This is the same player the Marlins were counting on as their power source. He hits it a long way (in batting practice). The problem is, most of the time, he simply doesn’t hit the ball.  This off-season, the Marlins put O’Brien in a position that a player who had failed 6 times before, should not have been put in. He was told to represent the team with class AND have a solid back of the baseball card. He got the first part right.

The Marlins clearly did not have a sound backup plan here, and that’s alarming. They were fortunate that Cooper played as well as he did, until he couldn’t. Upon O’Brien’s return, it has taken less than 10 games for the Marlins to realize what everyone else did. O’Brien can’t consistently hit major league pitching.

This isn’t all on O’Brien. From all accounts, he’s a fine young man and had a pinch-me moment being one of the faces of his hometown team. Perhaps O’Brien being a South Florida resident factored into their decision to use him in several of their plans, but it doesn’t excuse the mistake. Find someone else. Maybe the Marlins wanted to buy into the story. Or, perhaps they were fooled here. If so, that’s a problem.

This indeed is the first significant red check mark for the new regime’s on-field baseball resume.  The result is in on this one, and it’s at best a poor baseball decision. The Marlins offense was never going to be great, but O’Brien was going to be one of the reasons it wouldn’t be as bad as some thought. He’s not, it is. The Marlins can’t afford to make mistakes like these. It makes everyone look bad, especially Peter O’Brien.

Austin Dean, batter-up.  Garrett Cooper, get well soon.

 

Craig Mish (@CraigMish) is the host of Swings and Mishes with Jeremy Tache, which posts weekly on this website and major podcast platforms including Apple Podcasts and Google Podcasts.

Nipsey Hussle: Death of a Dope Boy’s Dream

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Every dope boy I’ve ever known said they had a plan. “I’ma get these packs off and then buy a barbershop.” You could replace barbershop with rib shack, carwash, or takeout spot depending on the day and the people in the conversation. Nipsey Hussle’s life was taken little more than a week ago now, and the impact of his death has resonated far greater than his jamming ass music.

I believe his death has resonated because his Dope Boy Dream came true. The dream came true and people felt that on a visceral level. However, the happily ever after was cut short. The streets still wouldn’t let him be great, and if Naybahood Nip can get clipped in his own hood in front of a business built with his own hands, then is the Dope Boy Dream really just pie in the sky? Hov said, “I know how this movie ends, but still I play, starring role in Hovito’s (Carlito’s) way.” We rooted for Nip and now it feels like, yet again just when one of us breaks out, the crabs in the barrel pull us back in..

It’s easy to downplay Dope Boy Dreams. They sound crazy outlandish sometimes. Oh so you gonna survive rivals and industrious police to sell enough dope to fund an enterprise? (Insert Martin Lawrence smirk). But like any fable told around weed cyphers or blunt rolling tables, there is truth in the legend. Master P did it; except his start up money was bequeathed to him by his grandfather. No shade. Jay, Dame, and Biggs did it. J Prince did it. So the Dope Boy Dream isn’t all just corner boy El Dorado fantasy..

Still, Nip’s dream was different. His version of the Dream wasn’t just about building a company to fund his and his family’s lives and escaping the maelstrom of street crime and gang violence. He was trying to build economic engines that would provide for entire communities, and judging by the name of his final album, I think he thought he was hella close to pulling it off. The Victory Lap album was Nip’s last offering to the world, and it is probably his best work. Listening to the album after his death and voraciously devouring interviews and articles about the man provided some insight into how Nip’s Dope Boy Dream manifested and persists.

Nipsey Hussle’s Album “Victory Lap” was released in 2018.

Victory Lap Track 11 – Grinding All My Life

Dope Boy Dreams have their genesis in the minds of young people often living in poverty and calculating the long odds of social ascension. Venture capitalists aren’t showing up to pitch meetings in churches, Boys and Girls Clubs, or traphouses. So the Dope Boy Dream is essentially a plan to raise capital. Nipsey‘s version was a family affair with the up and coming Hussle following in the entrepreneurial footsteps of his older brother “Black” Sam.

It was Black Sam who after a series of incarcerations, decided to lease a retail space in the same strip mall that the brothers had spent years hustling in front of. Crenshaw Boulevard and Slauson Ave, where the strip mall is located is in the heart of Nip’s neighborhood. They called their first attempt at business ownership Slauson Tees and it quickly became a neighborhood hotspot. The store attracted visitors and customers and Nip and company began to see the Dream grow legs and stand on its own. They began to see a way out of the constant grind of hustling and dodging county

Then Black Sam got booked, again, and the family lost the Slauson Tees store. However, when he came home, the brothers made it a point to purchase a different space in the same plaza. They had laid claim to the plaza and began leasing more bays. It was beginning to come full circle. It had been just a hangout, but it was now becoming an economic oasis in the middle of a dessert of broken dreams and poverty. In a documentary about the birth of the business, Nip said, “I can’t count how many fights I got into in this parking lot. Can’t count how many times we got shot at in this parking lot. It became our hangout, and so now to be back here, not as a customer or a nigga loitering, but as an owner is a beautiful thing. We wasn’t out here grinding for nothing.”

 

Victory Lap Track 5 – Dedication

It’s a well-known fact that most small-businesses in communities of color are not owned by people of color. Nip and his brothers decided leasing in the community wasn’t enough. They decided to buy the entire complex and lease bays and storefronts out to small businesses. They purposed to hire felons who had come home from prison with few options. Whether it be sweeping up, taking trash out or running the cash register, the goal was to provide a way, no matter how small.

Wait, I just realized that we’ve been talking about the Dope Boy Dream but not how NIp was tied to the dope game. Black Sam was in and out of county jail during the early years of the Dope Boy Dream. The brothers were hustlers in the truest since. Need a shirt? They got you. Need some new music? They got you. Need a couple ounces of weed or powder cocaine? They got that too.

For most entrepreneurs, failure equates to lost money and maybe a tarnished reputation, maybe. The consequences of failure for the Dope Boy Dream include lost freedom and a giant pause on whatever potential future was hanging on the horizon. Nip watched Black Sam move in and out of LA County jail and did a stint himself. Every time they went in, they lost the momentum they had built up. Every time Sam got out, they had to restart. Finally, Nip said there has to be a better way.

“We got the game from the OGs, but they gave us the game of  a different era. They kind of accidently mislead us. The police and courts created a thing called the Gang Enhancement. Say you get into a fight and break a dude’s nose? That’s assault with bodily harm, maybe a couple months max, but with the Gang Enhancement, they add about ten years to your sheet. So typical gangbanging shit, start putting the homies away for major time. It got to a point where we had to look at the OGs like hold up. We gotta rethink this,” Nip said in an interview with Hot 97.

In response, he doubled down on the hustle. The goal was to go legit and break the cycle of crime and jail. If you’re acquainted with Dope Boy Dreams, then by this point of the story you’re probably rooting for the antihero. Rap videos and pop culture would have you believe that all the ill gotten proceeds from a life of crime go to fuel rampant debauchery and misogynistic fantasies. The truth however, is that that dirty money pays mortgages, car notes, healthcare bills, and most everything else in life that requires monetary remuneration.

To see a Dope Boy go legit is to see a clean revenue stream built. A Dope Boy gone legit has beaten the system, and what person of color isn’t rooting for someone to pull a Tron and beat the game?

Victory Lap Track 6 – Blue Laces 2 

There’s another element to consider when pondering why the culture reacted to Nip’s death the way it did. Nip was a CRIP, and a well respected CRIP at that. To survive the crucible of LA gang culture and build a sustainable business is a herculean task. Nip was the only member of his family to claim CRIP and his affiliation with the street gang put much respect on his name.

It’s hard to talk about LA gang culture from the outside looking in. I, like most people I think, see gangs through the lenses of after school specials and cautionary tales preached to middle school assemblies. Yet, to hear Nip and others talk about these violent fraternities, is to hear a community in pain.

“When you’re outside and doing things to get money, it’s almost inevitable (getting involved in gang life). You end up with two choices; get with it or get the fuck out the way,” He said. The CRIPS began as a community empowerment organization aiming to protect neighborhood residents from overly militarized police and oppression. However, time and circumstance has morphed the CRIPs and Bloods and others into violent criminal syndicates.

I believe Nipsey’s respect in LA stems not from a history of violence and flashy crime. Rather, Nip’s respect comes from a community understanding the usually inevitable pitfalls of the life and the supreme unlikelihood of what he accomplished in business and music. He was an exemplar of what is possible and a radical outlier at the same damn time.

On Blue Laces Nip rapped,“Third generation, South Central , Gang bangers, and lived long enough to see it changing .”

That last bar is the one that has so many people messed up. He lived just long enough to see it changing. Just long enough to have his business thriving. Just long enough to create a classic album. Just long enough to be an inspiration.

 

Every time I think about it, all I can do is steal Florida Evans’s classic exclamation of grief. “Damn, Damn, Damn James!”

 

Victory Lap Track 13 – Loaded Bases

 

They’re going to hold Nipsey’s memorial service in the Staples Center. Memes are circulating that implore people to seek out and find the Nipsey’s at work in their own neighborhoods. The entire hip hop industry and community (minus Kodak Black) have rallied to support Hussle and his hustles. His aim was to put people in positions to succeed. He got taken out of the game but he left the bases loaded.

It’s eerie that his first major album was titled Victory Lap. It wasn’t a debut. It was a declaration. Nigga I made it! Niga we made it! It also made the point that putting an album out wasn’t the race. The race was surviving LA. The race was thriving in his own community as it revitalized around him. The race was to become a reputable business owner and contributor to the culture. This jamming ass album was just a cherry on top.

People of color relate to Nip’s story, and his passing hurt total strangers because his story is one told a million times. Nipsey was Carlito if Benny Blanco ain’t catch him slipping on the subway platform.

 

Christopher Mattox (@ChampionLyfe) is the host of Light Skinned Opinions, and has lots of words of the day. Find his podcast here: https://www.fivereasonssports.com/south-florida-podcasts/light-skinned-opinions/

Dwyane Wade deja a Miami desamparada

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El retiro de Dwyane Wade llegó y Miami llora la partida del deportista profesional más importante que ha tenido la ciudad en su corta historia deportiva.

Desde el momento en que fue escogido en el draft en 2003 hasta este último juego en Brooklyn, Wade siempre pensó en Miami, en el equipo, en los demás.

Por fin, llegó el escenario en el que todos los reflectores estaban sobre él.

Esta temporada fue un regalo para los que seguimos al Miami Heat.

El objetivo principal del equipo no se cumplió. O quizás sí.

Vimos un año más de Dwyane Wade con el uniforme que lo llevó al estrellato.

No solo en Wade County, sino en todos los Estados Unidos.

Miami queda huérfana de héroes deportivos

Los fanáticos del deporte profesional en Miami no celebran un título desde 2013, precisamente la última vez que Dwyane Wade y el Miami Heat ganaron un título.

Ahora, tras la partida de Wade, Miami queda huérfana.

Los Dolphins y los Marlins están en plena reconstrucción y el Miami Heat parece estar estancado en ese grupo del medio, a menos que traigan a alguna superestrella de la agencia libre o vía cambio.

No son tan buenos para competir, ni tan malos para tener una alta escogencia en el draft, aunque el Heat aún puede escoger en un buen puesto, dependiendo del sorteo y los porcentajes.

Así llegó Bam Adebayo hace un par de campañas.

Todos nos preguntamos cuál de los jóvenes tratará de tomar el testigo de Wade, si es que algo así llega a pasar.

Justise Winslow creció mucho este año, y tiene mucho potencial para seguir creciendo.

Bam Adebayo se ganó su titularidad por encima de Hassan Whiteside y Derrick Jones Jr. deleitó a los fans con su airplane mode.

Josh Richardson fue quizás el más reservado de los cuatro, quizás porque al comienzo de la temporada no le fue bien cuando se le entregó el control del equipo y los tiros más importantes de los juegos.

Hay que ver como juega este grupo sin un líder como Wade junto a ellos.

Wade’s #L3gacy

Dwyane Wade y su legado, unas palabras que escucharemos por el resto de nuestras vidas.

Es mucho más que basquetbol, como le dice su madre al final del comercial de Budweiser.

Mucho más que cualquier superestrella en cualquier deporte.

La cara de esta franquicia, de esta ciudad, del sur de Florida.

Sus tres títulos pusieron al Miami Heat en el mapa de los campeones e la NBA, pero su carácter y liderazgo en la comunidad lo elevaron a otro nivel.

Fue una carrera con diferentes etapas, con diferentes protagonistas, y muchos momentos que quedarán para el recuerdo.

¿Y lo mejor de todo? Se va con el respeto de toda una liga, que se rindió a sus pies durante una temporada entera, como lo hizo con Kobe Bryant hace unos años.

El intercambio de camisetas se volvió un ícono de la despedida de Dwyane Wade, y aunque el equipo no logró su cometido, los fanáticos del Heat deben estar satisfechos con la temporada que les brindó su gran estrella.

El Heat se despide de la temporada con la segunda eliminación en los últimos tres años.

Una eliminación que duele por cómo se dio todo, con tantas derrotas que no debieron ser, tantas ventajas desperdiciadas al final de los juegos.

La postemporada sin el Heat y D-Wade

Hace una semana escribí que estaba disfrutando de este cierre de temporada, porque era como una postemporada adelantada para Wade y el Heat.

Lamentablemente se fue dando el escenario que todos temíamos. El Miami Heat terminó la temporada con 39-43, y fuera de la contienda un día antes de terminar la temporada.

Cuando LeBron James se mudó a la costa oeste, parecía claro el camino para equipos como el Heat para clasificar con mucha más facilidad.

Sin embargo, a este equipo le faltó pegada, manejo de juegos, sangre fría.

Eso vendrá el año que viene.

El núcleo joven de este equipo creció mucho, y a partir de la temporada que viene debemos ver mucho más de Adebayo, Winslow, Richardson, Jones Jr. y compañía ganando juntos sobre el tabloncillo.

Hay que ganar títulos para ser querido en esta ciudad, y eso debe estar ya bien claro en las mentes de los futuros líderes de este equipo.

De eso también es responsable Dwyane Wade.

De hacerle entender a los que quieran ser referentes de este equipo, que más allá de representar a la cultura del Miami Heat, esta franquicia tiene que competir por campeonatos.

Muchas gracias por todo, Wade Jones…

 

Alejandro Villegas es miembro de Cinco Razones Podcast, el único podcast en español del Five Reasons Sports Network, junto a Ricardo Montes de Oca y Leandro Soto, fanáticos del tanking y de Dion Waiters