Launching Pad: Bam’s Buckets, Nunn’s Growth, Zone Success

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 21-8 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 110.7 (116.8)

• Defensive Rating: 105.8 (113.5)

• Net Rating: plus-4.9 (plus-3.3)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 59.0 (62.1)

• Pace: 99.84 (99.00)

• Time of Possession: 14.6 seconds (14.8)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard

• Minutes: 41

• Offensive Rating: 124.4

• Defensive Rating: 102.4

• Net Rating: plus-22.0

• True-Shooting Percentage: 66.6

• Pace: 97.8

The Big Number: 40.0

“We just didn’t guard nobody, man, from the beginning of the game. I think that’s the direction that we’re trending in right now. I feel like we got to take it personal. That doesn’t mean enough to us right now, to man up and take the challenge.”

That was was Jimmy Butler following the Heat’s loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz dropped 118 on the Heat, including a 13-for-36 outing from three. The attempts matter more than the makes here; they came often and easy, much as they have all year against the Heat.

Per tracking data from Cleaning The Glass, the Heat allow the second largest share of three-point attempts in the league. 40 percent of enemy shots come from beyond the arc, slightly besting the Toronto Raptors (40.1) for the highest clip in the league.

The Heat have survived because those shots … just haven’t gone in. Opponents have shot just 31.2 percent on above-the-break threes (2nd in the NBA) and 36.2 percent on corner triples (8th) this season.

You can blame, if that’s the word, a lot of this on the scheme. You’re generally banking on teams taking tough pull-ups against a “Drop” scheme. When you combine that with shaky defense at the point of attack (miss you, Justise), and some liberal help rules from the “nail” — you can get a brief intro here — the Heat are at risk of some swing-swing-shoot sequences that bleed open looks.

 

Pay attention to Tyler Herro in that clip. That ends up being a tough shot because it’s for Solomon Hill, but it was mostly open. There was no real reason for Herro to help down in the first place.

The Heat want to be disruptive in that area, but they have to be smart about it if they want to limit attempts moving forward.

Weekly Trends

1. Bam, thriving in the middle

When we saw Bam Adebayo face off against the Sixers on November 23rd, he was greeted with the most aggressive version of “Drop” coverage he had seen all season. Joel Embiid played no less than eight feet off of him, basically daring Bam to do … anything, really.

Narrator: he didn’t do anything, really.

Adebayo finished the game with 12 points on 5-of-9 shooting, though the impact went beyond those numbers. With Embiid conceding that much space, he effectively eliminated Miami’s cut-heavy offense. DHO action with Adebayo went nowhere; his indecision off the bounce stunted an already-limited offense. It was ugly.

Adebayo has turned into a true offensive threat since that game, particularly in the middle of the floor.

He’s sprinkling in jumpers with more regularity:

The floater is coming along, with either hand:

And, buddy, is he showing off some juice off the dribble:

Before that Sixers game, Adebayo had only eclipsed 17 points four times. He’s averaging 17.5 points in the 14 games since, with four games over 20. He’s shot 22-of-46 (47.8 percent) on shots between 5-14 feet during that time frame.

As he’s become more comfortable in the intermediate area, the offense has become more difficult to defend.

2. Kendrick Nunn is calming down

Nunn has been a revelation for the Heat this season. Not only is he the Heat’s second leading scorer (16.4), he’s currently the highest scoring rookie in Heat history.

(Yes, he is currently outpacing Dwyane Wade by 0.2 points.)

Nunn’s scoring repertoire is impressive. He can drill pull-up triples, has an assortment of moves in the middle, and can finish at the rim with either hand. Three-level scorers are incredibly hard to find; three-level scorers that can bring plus-value in other areas are nearly impossible.

Nunn is more of the former than the latter right now, which is still a win for the Heat. His limitations as a passer have been pointed out by yours truly. He has routinely called on his own number when making a pass might’ve been a better option.

To his credit, he’s seen the floor better over the past couple of weeks. It’s especially worth highlighting now because he’s been able to strike a nice shoot-pass balance while scoring effectively. He isn’t making CP3-esque reads in the half-court, but he’s hitting the easy stuff — and doing so in a timely manner.

Nunn may be an older rookie, but he is a rookie nonetheless. His decision-making has gotten better over time, and that should continue as he becomes more accustomed to the speed of the game.

3. Zoning up

The more things change, the more things say the same. Erik Spoelstra doesn’t mind getting weird to shift the odds in his favor. He’s done so with his growing usage of the 2-3 zone over the last three years, a trump card that has done more good than evil.

Only two teams — the Washington Wizards (196 possessions) and Toronto Raptors (189) — have played more possessions in zone than the Heat (145). Of the 14 teams that have logged at least 30 possessions, the Heat rank third in defensive efficiency. allowing 0.848 points per possession.

Having guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and Jimmy Butler at the head of the zone is patently unfair. Their length and instincts make it nearly impossible to thread the needle on skip passes. Their closing speed up top also makes it difficult for drivers to penetrate the lane.

As with most schematic things in the NBA, putting more reps on tape will inevitably lead to solutions. The Grizzlies and Sixers (particularly late in the 4th quarter) were able to swing the ball around and generate corner 3s. The Heat give up enough of those in their base defense; they don’t need to do the same in zone.

Still, the zone has been an effective change-up for them this season. The scary thing is that it could get better whenever Justise Winslow returns.

Set Play of the Week

Floppy, with a twist

In terms of half-court actions, it generally doesn’t get more common than “Floppy” — screening action near the baseline in an effort to spring a shooter (or two) free.

What you normally don’t see is a big man on the receiving end of the screen.

Kelly Olynyk is having a down year overall, and we’ll probably need to discuss his role at some point. When he is on the court, he’s still one of the more unique weapons in basketball. He marches to the beat of his own drum in dribble-handoffs, but at his most basic, he’s a darn good shooter.

The very nature of a stretch big stresses defenses out. It ruins “Drop” coverage because it either concedes open looks, or pulls enemy big men out of the paint. Olynyk brings an added element as an off-movement shooter. He’s an awkward watch, but still fluid enough to balance himself and fire off the catch.

The Knicks had no chance here, but have they really had one in 20 years?

Dolphins celebrate after a touchdown against the Bengals. (Tony Capobianco for Five Reasons Sports)

Pressure Point: Dolphins win … and lose in tanking masterpiece

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MIAMI GARDENS — Based on Sunday’s home finale, it might appear the Miami Dolphins have found the sort of quarterback they’ve been seeking.

That was Ryan Fitzpatrick putting up Marino-esque numbers in Sunday’s 38-35 overtime win over the defenseless Cincinnati Bengals: 419 yards passing (31-of-52) and four touchdowns.

Fitzpatrick has the arm and charisma to build a winning team around. Too bad he’s 37.

Ironically, by replacing Josh Rosen with Fitzpatrick in the second half against the Redskins on Oct. 13 and keeping the veteran as the starter since, coach Brian Flores sabotaged the Dolphins’ chance of having the pick of the quarterback litter in next April’s draft.

The question of who wanted it more Sunday seemed obvious from the start. The one-win Bengals left no doubt they were locked in on the No. 1 draft pick by giving up touchdowns on Miami’s first two drives.

But then the Dolphins squandered a 23-point lead in the final 6 ½ minutes of regulation to turn this into a tanking masterpiece.

1972 Dolphins undefeated, feistier than ever

Win hurts draft position

Oddly, this was Bottom of the Barrel Week, with the four worst teams in the NFL matched up in separate games. Both went into overtime by identical 35-35 scores. The Giants prevailed over the Redskins just as the Dolphins and Bengals were beginning their extra session.

As far as draft positioning, the win was costly to the Dolphins. Improving to 4-11 dropped them to the fifth spot at least temporarily, pending the outcome of the Detroit-Denver game, with next week’s trip to New England remaining for Miami.

Actually, I’m fine with that, being of the opinion it is never a good idea to accept losing. It can be a tough habit to break.

Still, it is difficult to know what to take from this most perplexing Dolphins season.

The promising development is that the Dolphins may have finally found the right coach. Evidence is building in that direction, and being recognized outside of Miami.

Flores gaining support

On Sunday, the CBS analysts gave an endorsement of Flores, with Bill Cowher saying, “He has got these guys playing really, really hard. That speaks volumes about him as a coach.”

Regardless of upper management’s motives in stripping down the roster in rebuilding mode, Flores always insisted that his sole focus was on winning. His players love him for it.

“From Day 1, no matter what changes, no matter what happens to our team, he always said we’re going to go out there and try to win every game. … He’s a class act. All of us believe it. He’ll look you straight in the eye and tell us we’re going to get the job done. We’re going to give every chance we can to win. He really showed us.”

Flores certainly has gotten a lot out of a thread-bare roster that has been like a turnstile throughout the season. Some 80 players have been active at one time or another.

What remains to be seen is what he can do with a more talented team — when letting a 23-point lead evaporate is viewed as inexcusable.

Too soon to draw conclusions on coach

Can Flores achieve a winning blend and elevate the collective to championship contention?

Remember, there were indications Adam Gase was the answer after going 10-6 and taking the Dolphins to the playoffs in his first season.

There is a lot to admire about Flores, particularly his conviction about shaping a team and leading it in his own way. His best achievement this season was keeping the team from becoming dispirited among all the losing. He vowed they’d remain competitive, and they have been.

These Dolphins have gone from unwatchable at the beginning of the season to fairly entertaining. That is a credit to Flores and his staff.

But there are things to question in his methods and handling of players. Last week Flores spoke about adjusting schemes to get the most out of talented players.

“If we’ve got a good player, we’ll make it work for said player,” Flores said. “Yeah, if Lawrence Taylor was available and we had to fit the scheme for him, we would do it. So yeah, no problem.”

Nonetheless, he didn’t do that for talented young safety Minkah Fitzpatrick or running back Kenyan Drake, both of whom are having eye-openings seasons since being traded away.

So, it is premature to conclude that Flores is the answer for the Dolphins.

Extra picks provide options

Of greater concern is whether GM Chris Grier is able to make the draft picks and signings needed to get the rebuild headed in the right direction. He does have 17 draft picks over the next two years (three first-rounders in 2020) and will have more than $100 million in cap space going into the next signing period.

But look at the past couple of drafts and realize there will be plenty of misses and that it will be a huge task to restock this roster. And no guarantee the drastic measure of the teardown will break the Dolphins out of decades of mediocrity.

Tight end Mike Gesicki, their second-round pick in 2018, did have his first multi-touchdown day Sunday, and their top pick this year, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, had a sack and caught a 1-yard touchdown pass after lining up as a blocking back. So that’s encouraging.

Note that even with the tanking strategy going a bit off the rails, they still may have a chance to draft the quarterback they were believed to covet: Tua Tagovailoa. That is, if the Alabama quarterback is deemed on track in recover from his hip injury and decides to enter the draft.

FitzMagic fine for short term

Whether taking a chance on Tua or some other quarterback prospect, they will have some time to get him ready to start.

Look for the Dolphins to go into next season with ol’ FitzMagic, who has been nothing short of a marvel as a starter for his eighth NFL team this season.

“It’s exciting every week because he plays with such joy,” center Daniel Kilgore said of Ryan Fitzpatrick. “You can just see, he loves the game. For him to be as old as he is, still going out and running around and making throws and doing things that normal people can’t do, it’s pretty exciting.

“I love to play for him. He loves his teammates, he loves the staff. He’s an awesome leader. He’s probably the top five for me as far as teammates of all time.”

Fitzpatrick certainly isn’t the elusive quarterback of the future they’ve been seeking. But the Dolphins are quite fortunate to have him right now, even if he has them winning too much for their own (draft) good.

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Larry Csonka, left, and Larry Little join in celebration of the 1972 Dolphins being chosen as the NFL's greatest team. (Craig Davis/Five Reasons Sports)

Pressure Point: ’72 Dolphins undefeated, feistier than ever

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MIAMI GARDENS

An hour before the How Low Can You Go Bowl, and just how far the Miami Dolphins have fallen was exemplified by a gathering outside Hard Rock Stadium.

Cue, Springsteen’s “Glory Days” in your head.

The song is ancient, and so are these gray-haired men in aqua blazers gathered yet again Sunday to take a bow for what they achieved nearly half a century ago.

But the years haven’t diminished the accomplishment of the 1972 Dolphins, who went 17-0 on the way to winning the first of back-to-back Super Bowl titles. As part of ‘NFL 100 Greatest’ celebration of the league’s first century, those undefeated Dolphins were chosen as the greatest team.

They celebrated with a champagne toast at halftime of Sunday’s game between the lowly 2019 Dolphins facing the even lowlier Bengals.

Likewise, the passage of time hasn’t diminished the passion of the players who achieved it.

On being greatest team: ‘We took it’

That was evident when never-give-an-inch fullback Larry Csonka was asked about the honor.

“No, no, the NFL did not name us the greatest team, we took the god-damned thing. I’m tired of people telling me how they named us. They named us shit! We took it,” Csonka barked.

Then he smiled and added, “I don’t have any emotional response to that.”

Considering that other rankings of greatest teams have snubbed the Perfect Season Dolphins in favor of Bears and Steelers and Patriots champions that followed in other eras, was Csonka surprised the NFL chose to put them at the top this time?

“No. I’m not surprised,” he said, then became animated again. “Fellas, you’re missing the whole point. It’s a team sport. When you achieve perfection there is no single entity that leads in that perspective. You don’t have the leading rusher, you might not have the leading wide receiver, you might not have the leading tackler in the game.

“The fact of the matter is that you concentrate more on winning than individual performance. So when you talk about great entities in the league, those are detrimental to the winning aspect because you become one dimensional.

“So if you all work together and don’t let your egos get in the way, which is easy when [coach Don] Shula has his foot up your butt, then, and only then, you may attain a perfect season.”

Tanking is an illusion

For awhile early this season it appeared the current Dolphins might pursue absolute imperfection in aiming for a winless season for the chance to pick at the top of the draft. Instead, they came into Sunday’s game at 3-11 against the 1-13 Bengals, who had a virtual lock on the top pick in the 2020 draft.

As to be expected, the notion of a team built to lose is anathema to the Perfect Dolphins.

“That’s not an idea, that’s an illusion,” former running back Mercury Morris said. “… They’re dreaming now to think that you can take and lose a game and then therefore next year that’s going to help you win and make you more competitive. That can’t happen that way.

“You should be able to take who you have and cultivate what you’ve got and make that into your team.”

Admiration for Patriots

Morris pointed to the model of that in the present NFL.

“I like the New England Patriots because they’re the most competitive team that’s out there. … I have the utmost respect for the Patriots team because they’re closer to us … in terms of their respect for the game and how they can take whatever they have and win. Everybody else is chasing that.”

As for the Dolphins’ ambitions of reprising “Glory Days,” Morris suggested the current strategy is pure gamble.

“I hope all these draft picks they have that they’re going to get from trading away all their good players. I hope those dice work,” he said. “Because that’s what it is. It’s a flip of a coin.”

Craig Davis has covered South Florida sports and teams, including the Dolphins, for four decades. Follow him on Twitter @CraigDavisRuns

Houtz Special: Are the Dolphins preparing Josh Rosen to start in 2020?

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Could Josh Rosen be the Dolphins starting QB in 2020?

The 2019 season is quickly coming to an end. And with two games left to be played, most focus is now directed towards the 2020 offseason. An offseason, that many believe to be the most critical in franchise history. After all, Miami has upwards of $120-million and 15 draft picks at their disposal. What they do with them, remains the million-dollar question. More so, how will Chris Grier and his motley crew of NFL personal approach the most important position in football?

The quarterback.

Earlier this week, Jake Mendel took a look at some of the top available veteran QBs that could be available on the market. And for those paying attention at home, we’ve updated our 2020 QB tracker throughout the season. That can be found HERE. You can also expect to see several breakdowns throughout the offseason from me, as I introduce a new draft series on FiveReasonsSports.com

However, aside from countless prospects and veteran options, there’s one thing that many people refuse to buy into. And that is this- Josh Rosen, 2020 starting QB.

In Josh Rosen We Trust?

By now, we all know why Rosen isn’t starting for the Dolphins. Truth is, everyone in Miami is willing to put their body on the line for Fitzpatrick. And while this can be viewed as a knock towards the 22-year old QB, I fail to see it. Rosen is sitting behind a guy that’s played in the NFL for 15 years. A 37-year old journeyman that leads by example and does all the right things in the huddle. It took Rodgers many years before he got his opportunity. The same with Brady in New England. 

Maybe Rosen will never be the QB many scouts and experts believed he would be. Then again, maybe he just needs time. Perhaps, Rosen just needed a year to learn how to identify the mic LB, offensive line protections, and watch one of the NFL’s true leaders–command a locker room of young players, in a tumultuous season.

Before the trade to Miami, writers tried to push an agenda that Rosen had character issues and his personality wouldn’t fit in Miami.

Say what?

When asked if he was disappointed he is not starting for the Dolphins, Rosen gave this mature response.

“No. I mean ‘Fitz’ hasn’t done anything to lose the starting position thus far, so I don’t see why anything would change. I obviously would love to play if (Head) Coach (Brian Flores) called me up, but that’s not my decision and I think ‘Fitz’ has been doing a hell of a job considering all of the circumstances that have been going on this year.”

2020 is a unique year for the Dolphins and what many-including myself-deem as the most important in franchise history. No, Miami won’t be playoff contenders in 2020. They might not be much better than the record they currently have. But Rome wasn’t built in a day. Chris Grier and his staff have the resources. Now, they just need to find Miami’s QB of the future.

So again, what if that QB is already on the roster?

Maybe, they’ll draft Tua Tagovailoa or Jordan Love. Maybe, they’ll wait until next season with their eyes set on the 2021 class. But one thing we do know is that they WILL be drafting a QB. Grier and his staff will be turning over every stone, in hopes of finding the next Dan Marino. I’m confident Rosen is not the next Marino. But with a second-round pick already invested, why give up now? Why give up on a QB that is younger than LSU’s Joe Burrow? A QB that for the first time in many years, could be heading into next season with a familiar face at OC.

Rosen has plenty of flaws, as do we all. But many QBs throughout the history of the NFL needed time to develop. They needed time ‘for the NFL game to slow down’.

I wasn’t at training camp. But everything I saw throughout preseason told me Rosen looked to be not far behind Fitzpatrick, at least from a skill’s standpoint. But not even I can argue how much better Miami’s offense looked when Fitzpatrick took over vs Washington. Maybe, Rosen wasn’t ready. After all, he was thrown into the fire as a rookie in Arizona. And then again this season in Miami, behind the worst offensive line in football. Anyone would be nearing their breaking point. Coach Flores says that he continues to get better every day in practice and honestly, how bad could it be if they start Rosen and history repeats itself?

Maybe Rosen will be on the roster in 2020 and maybe he won’t. But Brian Flores had this very telling quote from earlier in the week.

From meetings to walkthroughs to all of the preparation, as a coaching staff, we’re with them on a daily basis and I think we have a good feel for what that is. To answer your question, for Josh and the steps he’s got to take, I think he’s taken those steps. I think in due time, he’ll get his opportunity.”

Could 2020 be the year of The Chosen One? Time will tell.

 

This article was written by Josh Houtz (@houtz) who refuses to give up hope on Josh Rosen.

 

 

Panthers Score 7, Top Stars 7-4

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The Panthers enter tonight 6th in the Atlantic at 16-12-5. Though a dip in the standings, they aren’t far behind. They sit two points back of 3rd place in the Atlantic with three games in hand of Buffalo.
This game wrapped up a franchise record 9 game home stand, one that has been disappointing for the Panthers. They finish the home stand 5-4 and taking 10 of the Possible 18 points.

The Panthers came out of the gate hot, getting the first goal of the game on the power play. With a nice screen assist from Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau buried his 12th goal of the season at 4:34 in the first. After a goal by Denis Gurianov to tie the game in the first, Anton Stralman ripped a shot of the face off that got past Ben Bishop to put the Panthers up 2-1. The Panthers outshot the Stars 15-7 in the first.

The second period was a much different story for the Panthers. They arguably played their best period of the season, scoring 5 goals. Noel Acciari, who scored a hat trick on Monday night, got a hat trick in 8 minutes of game play in the second period. The third in final goal came on a penalty shot, which he was rewarded for after getting fouled on a breakaway while the Panthers were short handed. Dallas got one goal back late in the second to make it 7-2.

In the third period, the Panthers came out a bit flat, committing a penalty and letting up two goals, making the 7 goal blow out, look a little bit better for them on the scoreboard.

Overall, it was a game the Panthers desperately needed. A well rounded game where they exploded offensively and had a solid night on the defensive and goaltending end. Panthers will improve to 17-12-5 on the season, good for 39 points on the season. They play again tomorrow in Carolina to start a 2 game road trip before Christmas break.

 

Complexity of a Jrue Holiday fit for the Miami Heat

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What the hell are the Miami Heat this season? Are they a contender? A feel good story? A team waiting for 2021? All of that? It’s weird, they are weird and with greater expectations comes urgency.

And that changes everything.

The Heat are loaded with contracts that make it easy to match any star player they would want, they have young attractive rotation players and now they are heavily linked to Pelicans guard, Jrue Holiday. For the Heat is the star guard worth cashing their chips?

The answer is kinda complicated and it doesn’t come without risks. Holiday has a 2021 player option for $26 million and should he opt in it will leave Miami without a max slot for the summer of Giannis. On the flip side, Miami could be a move or two away from the Finals and that’s all this organization wants. A chance. A shot at the title. 

The framework around the deal is the elephant in the room. If it does happen it’s conceivable that the package would include Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow and other salary to match. Considering the Heat are up against hard cap, it will take careful maneuvering and perhaps even a third team involved in any trade. It’s been said that the deal would have to include Tyler Herro which might be the deal breaker for the Heat. However if Pat Riley, cap wizard Andy Elisburg and company can negotiate around that, would the move make basketball sense? The question then becomes: does the move put them over the top into the conversation for the Finals?

Start here: Holiday isn’t a plus shooter by any means. His last three seasons, his three point percentages have been 34, 33 and 34. Playing him alongside Bam Adebayo, who doesn’t space the floor, could really limit the Heat’s offense down the stretch. Holiday would likely be a catch and shoot option in late game offense with Jimmy Butler triggering sets and Holiday is at just 34 percent on catch and shoot threes this season, consistent with his overall shooting. Thus, playing Adebayo, Holiday and Jimmy Butler (28 percent from three this season) in crunch time, as would be the case every night, would create spacing trouble. 

Naturally, it’s important to note that Justise Winslow is struggling this season even more than Holiday this season from deep, at 23 percent. Without question, Holiday is an offensive upgrade to Winslow.

I don’t think it can be argued that adding a recent All-Star and All-Defensive Team player would hurt the Miami Heat. Holiday makes them better no question, but losing two ball handlers for one brings Miami’s margin for error down significantly and Winslow’s size allows the Heat to be a more versatile defensive team. It’s a give and take that ultimately probably nets positive.

There are some concerns offensively but you trust that stars will figure those out, while you lose an elite wing defender you gain one at guard. Holiday would most likely move Kendrick Nunn to a bench role similar to what was being asked of Goran Dragic, to score in bunches and protect leads. The Heat would ask Derrick Jones Jr. to defend bigger wings more often, so long as he’s not part of a trade package. They still might be a wing defender short come playoff time, with names like Simmons, Harris, Brogdon, Giannis, Middleton, Siakam, Brown, Tatum, Hayward on the list of players Winslow would be asked to defend. Is Jones Jr. the playoff answer for that? 

Risking 2021 cap space for what would be Miami’s third best player also raises questions and this is why the move isn’t so cut and dry. This season the Heat have one shot at a needle-moving player because Dragic’s 19 million expiring contract is the big thing that would help them match salary and Winslow is the one attractive young piece the Heat might move. Saving these for a better player than Holiday might be the way to go, but it’s also possible a better player doesn’t become available. 

This team hasn’t been healthy lately as well, and to make knee jerk moves when their third and fourth best players have been out is premature. Without the extra ballhandlers Miami has been easier to defend, depending significantly on dribble-hand off sets and shooters hitting off the curls. It’s a far cry from the Heat’s Horns-heavy motion offense which feature multiple dribble and shooting threats that had Miami’s offense humming. 

It’s unlikely this trade alone puts them over the Sixers or the Bucks and it might come at the expense of 2021 if Holiday opts in. There is an argument to be made that with so many teams having cap space he would try for one last payday. Yet it’s still a risk that he punts on that or an injury would compel him to opt in. Theoretically the Heat can ask him to opt out and bring him back over the cap with his Bird Rights. So there are angles the Heat can play if things break their way. 

With the Heat ahead of schedule and Butler having a timer on his prime there is now a sense of urgency that wasn’t with the Heat in October. Even if they don’t make a move they still sit half a game out the two seed in the East (and half a game out of sixth), with a star, talented young players and a max salary slot in 2021. There are worse positions to be in and the Heat have to look in the mirror and decide what gambles are worth taking for the short term at the expense of 2021 flexibility.  The clock is ticking. To Jrue or not Jrue, that is the question. There’s no easy answer. 

 

Giancarlo Navas (@GNavas103) is the host of Miami Heat Beat.

Chris Grier isn't a perfect general manager, but he does not deserve to be fired.

Jake’s Take: Which veteran quarterback makes the most sense for the Miami Dolphins?

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Could a veteran quarterback be the right route for the Dolphins?

After a season of “tank for Tua” chants we are starting to get clarity on the 2020 draft class. There are concerns swarming around Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. Not only does teams have to worry about his hip, but now he may not even declare for the 2020 draft. 

The Dolphins have shown what Brian Flores, Chad O’Shea and the coaching staff is capable of with a few wins. It meant Miami lost a chance at Heisman winner Joe Burrow, who will likely go to the Bengals first overall.

Our thoughts on the draft class have changed since week one. That is why it is important to let a season play out. Mock drafts have the Dolphins taking Tagovailoa, but he may need more than a year to recover. Brian Flores, as recently as Monday, said that his team is determined to win football games.

Miami could invest a valuable first round pick on a huge risk like Tagovailoa or reach at someone like Justin Herbert. Another thought that has flown through the thought tank of the fanbase (aka Twitter) is pursuing a veteran quarterback.

The Dolphins have moved the ball well with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. For the sake of this argument, let’s say Fitzpatrick is an average quarterback. We’ve seen a handful of 20-point games. We’ve seen what an elite receiver DeVante Parker is capable of, in an offensive that isn’t run by Adam Gase.

What if, instead of forcing a quarterback in the 2019 draft, the Dolphins move around to not only replenish picks for 2020 and solidify the roster with roughly five of the first 64 picks of the 2020 draft? Could the Dolphins roster a competitive team that is capable of returning to the hunt?

Fans threw around Cam Newton’s name. Newton made his money with his legs and his struggled with an ankle injury over the last two seasons. He is on the books for $18 million next year, which would be pocket change for a Dolphins team that will have over $100 million in cap space? However, Chad O’Shea needs an accurate quarterback that can make throws over the top and outside of the markers, making a 31-year-old Cam Newton a tough fit.

What about Tom Brady? He has history with just about everyone in Miami. A six-time super bowl champion and arguably the best quarterback of all time. Brady will be 43 years old next season and is currently trucking through one of his worst seasons as a pro.

There was a rumor that the Miami Dolphins tried to trade for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford before the 2018 season under Gase.   

Fast forward to today and the Detroit Lions have lost seven-straight games. Yes, Stafford was lost for the season in November, but he was balling out before the injury. Fitzpatrick has thrown for more than 280 yards four times this year. Stafford, on the other hand, has thrown for more than 340 yards four times this year. He finished with 19 touchdowns to just five interceptions through eight games.

Not only does Stafford share some of the traits of Fitzpatrick in terms of playing style, but the Lions may look to hit the reset button with a record of 3-10-1 and “sell the team” signs floating around the stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The best way to rebuild is to ship off a veteran quarterback and embrace a movement. They could speed up the process by engaging in trade talks with the Dolphins, who have a war chest of picks and can likely supply the best value. It is important to keep in mind that this doesn’t necessarily mean multiple first round picks or even a single first-round pick. Miami’s draft capital is more than most other teams.

Miami will draft a quarterback at some point in time. However, Brian Flores has proven himself in 2019 without much help on either side of the ball.

A veteran quarterback like Stafford may be a good option to help stabilize the franchise being under contract through 2022. The move gives Miami’s front office enough time to find the right quarterback, and more importantly, remain competitive.

Miami may decide it doesn’t want to make a big more for a quarterback and remain with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has done more than enough in 2019 without a lot of help. Not only does the locker room love him, but he has made the Dolphins a fun team. 

Running it back with Fitzpatrick and some shinny new toys from the draft. Miami will add some depth in free agency, which could be just what this team means. However, it is interesting to take off the realistic glasses. Especially when jumping into the Madden trade machine and looking at ways the Dolphins could build a team that could bring Miami a playoff contender.

Guts Check: Bam Adebayo has No Ceiling

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Welcome to Guts Check by Greg Sylvander. A weekly Miami Heat column aimed at bringing readers my perspective on all the hot topics surrounding the team. You can expect a regular balance of sourced information, analysis and feeling the Heat down in my soul. In the name of Trusting the Spocess, let’s call these weekly columns position-less.

Since we last touched base:

  • Won in OT vs Atlanta 135-121
  • Lost vs the Lakers 113-110
  • Won in OT at Dallas 122-118
  • Lost At Memphis 118-111

After the emotional fatigue associated with the ESPN Heat Index of the Big 3 era, I am usually leery nowadays when the Heat get national recognition. Always equal parts grateful and guarded. I can’t help but feel a bit protective of our finally-fun-again basketball team.

Fun again being a key point I want to marinate on briefly. Yeah I know they lost last night in Memphis, but they were bound to have a short rotation and multiple overtimes catch up with them. Let’s not let one bad loss cloud our thinking. This has been FUN.

First, we marveled at the play of Kendrick Nunn for a couple weeks, then we got acquainted to the Bucket Bros, then came Duncan Robinson shooting flames, Goran Dragic carrying the team off the bench for stretches. Among all those storylines it’s amazing to consider that the leap Adebayo is taking is easily the most impactful development on the entire roster.

What Bam Adebayo is doing is impossible to ignore.

As I always say, he has no ceiling. It’s not mere hope trafficking folks, this dude is the truth. He’s a top 22 player at age 22. On his way to being top 10 or 12 eventually. He has 2 triple doubles already this season, becoming the youngest Heat player ever to accomplish that feat.

A big man getting triple double with assists. Adebayo subscribes to the “don’t talk about it, be about it” method of earning triple doubles. Not often does a player that isn’t ball dominant have the chance to become a top 10 guy. To call him a rare talent is an understatement.

The league is on notice. Evidence by his recent Eastern Conference player of the week award announced yesterday.

Adebayo is a Chris Webber, Draymond Green, Kevin Garnett hybrid. He seems to unlock a different part of his game each night and him becoming this good this fast is jaw dropping.

Of course, Bam has much to go to be mentioned with the likes of Webber and Garnett. Yet the way in which Adebayo works at his craft bodes well for his development into a player who can become as decorated as those greats. He has the chance to be that good.

At one time, Heat fans often considered Bam a player that potentially would have to be sacrificed in the move to bring a superstar to the team. Now it appears his presence on the roster may be the deciding factor in another superstar deciding to join Jimmy & co in Miami.

Oh, and just so we’re clear: Adebayo has been labeled essentially untouchable by Heat brass according to a source.

So as the trade deadline approaches, remember that any trade rumor you see that mentions his name can be dismissed as bogus fodder. I don’t think a single fan will disagree with that decision by the Heat either.

Now let’s get him to Chicago for the All-Star game so he can mingle with the league’s best all weekend and talk up the Culture.

Bam has a chance to be a superstar magnet. I don’t think it should be discounted how important it is for the Heat to have seemingly surrounded Jimmy with such a great cast. Adebayo’s ascension is the kind of happening that makes the Heat’s 2021 pitch an entirely different conversation than we initially expected.

The Heat insist they would have selected Bam even if Donovan Mitchell was available in 2017. At first, I scoffed at the notion. Now I have been left to praise.

Launching Pad: Derrick’s Defense, Butler’s Bullying, Struggling Shooters

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Welcome to The Launching Pad, a weekly roundup of Miami Heat basketball. Who’s playing well, and who should pick it up? What numbers should you be watching? What was that beautiful play Miami ran in the second quarter? You can find all of it here, every Monday.

The Stats (Weekly stats in parentheses)

• Record: 19-7 (2-1, 3rd in the East)

• Offensive Rating: 110.0 (115.0)

• Defensive Rating: 105.0 (111.4)

• Net Rating: plus-5.0 (plus-3.6)

• True-Shooting Percentage: 58.6 (58.1)

• Pace: 99.94 (98.96)

• Time of Possession: 14.6 seconds (14.6)

Lineup of the Week (min. 10 minutes)

Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Derrick Jones Jr., Bam Adebayo

• Minutes: 26

• Offensive Rating: 153.8

• Defensive Rating: 92.6

• Net Rating: plus-61.2

• True-Shooting Percentage: 73.1

• Pace: 96.75

The Big Number: 9.4

There’s been a weird thing going on with the Heat’s offense this season. As of this morning (December 16th), the Heat rank in the top six in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, true shooting percentage, and assist rate. Teams that score that efficiently and share the ball that well generally rank better than 10th (which is fine!) in offensive rating.

Those teams generally don’t turn the ball over like the Heat do.

Their preference – and at times, reliance – on half-court cuts lead to some ambitious passing. The Heat currently rank 29th in turnover rate (16.7 percent), only ahead of the Atlanta Traes (16.9). That’s partly why their offensive rating was five points higher than their season average, despite their true shooting percentage being a shade lower than their normal average.

Surprisingly, it’s easier to score when you maintain possession of the ball.

Weekly Trends

1. Derrick Jones Jr: Swiss Army Knife

On Thursday, I asked Derrick Jones Jr. where he was most comfortable on defense. Does he like hounding guards? Tracking like-sized 3s? Roaming as the weak-side helper at the 4?

His response: wherever the team needs him. He called himself “positionless” and said, matter-of-factly- that he can “guard 1-through-5.” It’s hard to argue with him after the week he just put together.

It started with him getting the Trae Young assignment on Tuesday.

He then spent time defending LeBron James:

And thennnnn he got to bang with Kristaps Porzingis on Saturday.

This is on top of his usual work as the head of Miami’s zone

Jones Jr. still has hit warts on that end. The angles he takes when navigating pick-and-rolls still leave a bit to be desired. True post threats can give him the blues; Anthony Davis took his lunch money on the few possessions he defended him on Friday.

All in all, it’s hard to complain about the work Jones Jr. has done defensively. He’s clearly improved. That, along with the organized chaos he provides as a transition threat and offensive rebounder, gives him a clear path to closing minutes.

2. The Butler Drove it (and drove it and drove it and drove it)

Jimmy Butler is finally starting to find his groove as a scorer. He’s up to 21 points per game after a conservative start to the year. The jumper hasn’t really come around yet, but he’s compensated by taking it to the rim. Over and over and over again. Much like Goran Dragic, Butler has a way of dislodging defenders with a subtle shoulder check:

Butler hasn’t been as successful at the rim as he has been in other seasons. His 64 percent clip inside of three feet is the lowest mark he’s posted since the 2016-17 season. However, the sheer volume of his drives — 15.5, via Second Spectrum — is the highest it’s ever been. He averaged 19 drives this past week and averaged 8.3 free throw attempts as a result.

Those drives do come at a cost. He’s been exhausted at the end of games and has said as much. Dead legs aren’t going to help an already-shaky jumper get back to form, particularly the pull-up jumpers he likes to take. For now, Butler is willing his way to the hoop — and willing the team to close wins.

3. Struggles from the shooters

I wrote my formal apology to Tyler Herro last week. So of course, he proceeded to forget how to shoot. His three games since that piece: 8.7 points on 10.7 shot attempts, and a 25 percent clip from deep to boot.

Clearly this is my fault.

The shooting will come around; he’s taking mostly good shots, the footwork is fine. There seems to be a slight hitch in his gather, but that may be some slight fatigue-based compensation. If we could revisit Friday’s contest against the Lakers, there is one thing that seems worth discussing.

The handle, while improved, isn’t quite there yet.

Avery Bradley has his shortcomings as a defender – small, isn’t super versatile because of it, whatever – but he’s an absolute menace at the point of attack. Bradley routinely picked up Herro 70-or-so feet from the basket to disrupt his rhythm and it mostly worked.

Herro didn’t display the burst needed to get by. His go-to escape move, a spin to either direction, was a bit sloppy and didn’t create the separation necessary to reset. This was probably his best rep of the night:

That will get cleaned up over time, though the degree of that cleaning-up process is still up in the air.

On the other end of the spectrum is Duncan Robinson. While he hasn’t had a blip in shooting – he canned 51.6 (!) percent of his threes on 10.3 attempts – there has been a drop in quality on the other end. Robinson had been surprisingly “fine” on that end, but the clips of him failing to track shooters or navigate screens are starting to mount.

These are both missed shots, but the process here … isn’t great:

As long as he continues to shoot like a literal Splash Brother, it’ll be easier to overlook his defensive shortcomings. If that shooting starts to slip, his productivity on defense will need to rise to compensate.

Set Play of the Week

Role Reversal

Miami’s post-split action has been giving teams fit all year long. This rep is no different:

The play kicks off with Bam Udoh – er, Adebayo – and Tyler Herro crossing paths. Herro sets a screen for Adebayo, hoping to create an easy bucket underneath. It doesn’t work, so the action continues. This time, Herro sets a down screen for Kelly Olynyk, putting the defense in quite a bind.

Do you fight over the screen and risk Herro springing free for a three?

Do you switch it and create a small-on-big mismatch for Olynyk?

The correct answer: there is no correct answer.

That’s the beauty of using guards that can shoot as screeners in actions like this. Unless you have a switch-y big man, there’s no real way to prevent a mismatch from being created. This is straight from the Steve Kerr handbook, with Herro operating as the Heat’s version of Stephen Curry.

Herro sets a darned good screen The defense freezes, allowing Olynyk to spring open. Adebayo delivers the goods, as he has been all year from that spot.

Dolphins

Fresh Perspective: Top 5 keepers for the Dolphins 2020 season

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It’s no secret that there’s going to be a lot of turnover for the Miami Dolphins come 2020. The 2019 roster is universally considered to be one of the worst NFL rosters in history. Any hope of a return to the playoffs means a roster overhaul is crucial. However, this does not mean there isn’t some talent worth retaining going into the future. Not counting the obvious choices like Jerome Baker and Xavien Howard, of course.

Brian Flores and his coaching staff have done an excellent job of developing what little talent is available. Thus, it’s time to go over the top five players worth keeping around for further development in 2020 and beyond.

Nik Needham – CB

If there is anyone who’s deserving of a roster spot based on improvement alone, it’s cornerback Nik Needham. Needham went from an undrafted free agent out of UTEP to Miami’s best (available) cornerback in 2019. Obviously, he doesn’t compare to Xavien Howard, but Needham is on the field while Howard is on injured reserve. Therefore, technically, Needham is the best. Is that saying much considering the talent on defense? Yes and no.

Remember where Needham came from. During the preseason, Needham notoriously made error after error. Everyone watched it happen. Social media lit up with cries for Needham to be cut immediately. Yet, the Dolphins coaching staff deemed it necessary to keep him around, and it turns out they were right to do so.

Needham has come alive with the experience he’s gained this season. He only has one interception all season, and he has made a few mistakes here and there, but teams haven’t had nearly as much success throwing in his direction as they did earlier this season.

Is Needham worthy of being named the starter opposite Xavien Howard next season? Definitely not. He still has a lot of growing to do before he gets to that point. However, in the modern NFL, a stacked secondary is crucial for success. Should something happen to the starters next season, Miami could do much, much worse than Needham.

Credit the Dolphins coaching staff for seeing what fans and media could not.

Patrick Laird – RB

Out of all the undrafted free agents Miami signed this year, Laird is possibly the one with the least fanfare. Laird came out of Cal as a solid runner, but with no traits that made him stand out physically. He doesn’t boast blistering speed, he can’t run people over with raw power, and he doesn’t have the ability to make people miss with shifty moves.

Or at least, that’s what everyone assumed when he came out. While Laird isn’t wowing people with physical gifts, his pure effort each time he gets the ball makes up for his lack of overall talent. Laird, in many ways, is the physical embodiment of Brian Flores’s “Takes No Talent” philosophy.

Not only has Laird won the hearts of fans, there was also a distinct difference in results running the ball when Laird took over for the injured Kalen Ballage. There was hope Ballage would be able to develop into something special, but so far that doesn’t seem to be the case. Laird displays vision that Ballage doesn’t have, taking what’s given to him rather than forcing something that isn’t there.

Now the same question asked of Nik Needham needs to be asked of Laird. Does he have what it takes to be a starting running back in the NFL? Some have said he could be a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey. Given just how good McCaffrey is, that’s a bit of a stretch. Comparisons to Danny Woodhead, however, are much easier to swallow. They’re also more accurate.

Laird can definitely contribute in 2020, and he almost certainly will. But that doesn’t mean Miami will be content to use him as the starter next season. Laird will be a change of pace back, letting someone else take charge. Unless he can somehow continue developing further.

John Jenkins – DT

Basically the only veteran on this list, John Jenkins has turned out to be more of a contributor than anyone expected. Between he and LB Raekwon McMillan, Miami’s run defense up the middle has been solid these past few weeks. Having a nose tackle like Jenkins is a major boon to the defense, giving the Dolphins someone they can count on to handle two blockers at once.

By the start of the 2020 season, Jenkins will be 31 years old, and he’s a free agent after this season. Jenkins should still be a relatively cheap option for Miami to re-sign if they decide not to focus on DT in the draft.

Of course, being cheap isn’t necessarily something the Dolphins need to worry about, given they’re projected to have more salary cap space than they’ll know what to do with in 2020, with room to make even more by cutting/trading dead weight. They could easily look elsewhere and sign the likes of Danny Shelton for a little extra.

But Jenkins is more than sufficient at a fraction of the cost. If Miami is smart, they’ll sign Jenkins to another deal in the offseason and let him keep clogging up the lanes on running downs. He and McMillan already make a formidable duo, why mess that up?

Vince Biegel – LB

If there’s any question about who won the trade between Miami and New Orleans, here’s a tip for you: It’s the Dolphins. While Alonso offered support when the ball was right in front of him, he struggles when in coverage. Biegel, on the other hand, is proving to have a lot more to offer in the versatility department.

Biegel is relentless when attempting to rush the passer, he can go sideline to sideline, and his coverage ability – so far, at least – far outweighs that of Alonso’s. That alone makes this trade a win for Miami.

Versatility is key in the Dolphins defense, which makes Biegel a valuable commodity worth retaining. Come 2020, it would not come as a surprise to see Miami offer him a new contract to stick around and continue bringing his gritty, effort-fueled level of play to the team.

Is he likely to become a superstar anytime soon? Not at all. But once again, it’s incredibly important to have depth and solid role players all throughout the roster. When injuries hit, and the race to the playoffs heats up, it’s the teams who have depth to fill in the holes left behind that ultimately come out on top.

Taco Charlton – DE

The final player who needs to be a keeper from 2019 on is defensive end Taco Charlton. Now before anyone says Josh Rosen should be the last person on the list, you’re right. He should be on the list. However, Rosen staying goes without saying. So it doesn’t need to be said. Charlton, on the other hand, isn’t a shoe-in to stay. He should be though.

Charlton got picked up off waivers from the Dallas Cowboys back in September. Since then, he leads the team in sacks with a total of five. That isn’t nearly the same impact that Robert Quinn has had with Dallas since being traded there (9.5 sacks in 11 games), but it’s certainly more than first-round pick Charles Harris has ever done for the Dolphins.

That being said, Charlton was recently benched as “part of the gameplan,” according to head coach Brian Flores. Then defensive line coach Marion Hobby stated that Charlton needs to be more consistent against the run. So clearly, Charlton is contributing more than Harris, but he has work to do to keep improving. He most definitely is not the answer to Miami’s pass rush problems.

But Charlton is cheap labor for 2020. At the very least, his contributions are about on par with veteran Andre Branch, who thrived in a reserve role while with the Dolphins, but fell off as soon as he was asked to take on more responsibility. Having Charlton as a backup pass rusher at DE would be the ideal scenario, and hopefully Miami feels the same way.

Luis Sung has covered the Miami Dolphins for numerous outlets such as Dolphins Wire for six years. Follow him on Twitter: @LuisDSung